Rugby Championship Preview - New Zealand v Argentina

Expectation is a funny thing.  Some thrive on it, others require regular changes of underpants when placed under it.  But as the saying goes, there’s no smoke without fire – those who deal well with expectation realised that the hype is there because they really are that good.

So to say that there is a fair amount of expectation on the All Blacks, as they prefer to take on Argentina in Hamilton, is probably as much as an understatement as saying that the London riots were an inconvenience for City-dwellers.  The All Blacks are rightly regarded as the best in the world and there is always a stunned reaction when they do, occasionally, lose.  But in New Zealand to lose to the Pumas, the rookies of the competition?  That wouldn’t be unexpected, it would be out-of-this-world bizarre.  The All Blacks are welcoming back the legendary Dan Carter, who is so good that they can just drop the excellent Tom Taylor out of the squad completely to make way for him.  The depth in talent that the All Blacks have is frightening – as is the knowledge that they have yet to fully hit their stride following 2 comprehensive but not-totally convincing wins over the Wallabies.

Their opponents, Argentina, recovered from a 60 point drubbing against South Africa to run the same opponents to within a whisker of victory one week later.  If one week allows for a 60 point swing, then should Los Pumas fans be expecting a nice easy canter against the All Blacks?  Well, not quite.  They might welcome back Juan Martin Hernandez and, more importantly, their talismanic captain Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, but generally, across the park, the talent on the All Black bench eclipses all before it.  The one solace for the Argentines though is that, although they’re not great under pressure, they don’t half like a good underdog tag – they once again have nothing to lose.

And so a classic David v Goliath is about to take place – and although the pressure will be on the All Blacks and the vast majority will already have chalked this up as a victory for the hosts, the Argentines have every chance on pushing them close if they can get the likes of Lobbe and Mantera physically dominating their opposite numbers.  Expect one hell of a physical contest.

New Zealand Team News

Dan Carter returns for New Zealand having sat out the opening two games of the Championship due to injury. With Tom Taylor succumbing to the fly-half curse, Beauden Barrett is named amongst the replacements. And Steve Hansen has handed Francis Saili his Test debut at inside centre with Ma'a Nonu rested. In the front-row Charlie Faumuina replaces injured Owen Franks at tight-head prop with Ben Franks on the bench.

Starting Line up:  Israel Dagg; Ben Smith, Conrad Smith, Francis Saili, Julian Savea; Dan Carter, Aaron Smith; Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (captain), Steven Luatua; Samuel Whitelock, Brodie Retallick; Charlie Faumuina, Andrew Hore, Tony Woodcock.

Replacements: Dane Coles, Wyatt Crockett, Ben Franks, Jeremy Thrush, Sam Cane, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Beauden Barrett, Charles Piutau.

Key Player

Dan Carter.  Despite two great fly half displays from Tom Taylor and Aaron Cruden, Carter still has enough credit in the back to just strut back into the All Black side.  Which, to be fair, is probably fair enough seeing as he has been the world's best player for the best part of a decade.  He won't be given an easy ride on Saturday though, as the Pumas' awesome back row will be determined to give him a rough ride on his return to action.  He'll have to demonstrate composure and get his speed of thought back to match levels as quick as he can – if he does that, then he'll set the All Blacks' far superior backline loose and simultaneously avoid a mauling, which is always a bonus.

Argentina Team News

Santiago Phelan has made four changes to the side who lost to the Boks with Lobbe returning to captain the side as he replaces the banned Senatore in their back-row. Manuel Carizza replaces Mariano Galarza at lock while Felipe Contepomi is benched in place of Santiago Fernandez. Juan Martin Hernandez returns from injury and will take over duties at fullback, shifting Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino back to the reserves.

Starting Line up: Juan Martin Hernandez; Gonsalo Camacho, Marcelo Bosch, Santiago Fernandez, Horacio Agulla; Nicolas Sanchez, Martin Landajo; Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Pablo Matera, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (capitan); Julio Farias Cabello, Manuel Carizza; Juan Figallo, Eusebio Guiazu, Marcos Ayerza.

Reserves: Agustin Creevy, Nahuel Lobo, Juan Pablo Orlandi, Mariano Galarza, Benjamin Macome, Tomas Cubelli, Felipe Contepomi, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino.

Key Player

Juan Martin Hernandez.  It doesn't seem too long ago that Hernandez was being mentioned as one of the best players in the world, even running the mighty Dan Carter close, but a run of injuries and a subsequent struggle to get his form back has meant that he hasn't quite hit those 2007 levels.  When he isn't posing about in his underpants for risqué rugby calendars, Hernandez is still one of the best in the business – with supreme vision and a wonderfully cultured boot.  If Argentina are to threaten at all, he will need to come up from fullback and get his hands on the ball as much as possible to try and create something.

Key Battle

Richie McCaw v Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe.  The first-class openside flanker cupboard isn't exactly bare in the Southern Hemisphere is it?  These 2 blokes are 2 of the best in the business when it comes to pilfering the pill, to making un-human amounts of tackles and leading well and truly from the front – sticking their faces where most wouldn't stick their feet.  The grizzled All Black has looked mightily impressive following his return from sabbatical, and Argentina's survival and competitiveness in this contest may well rest on the returning Lobbe 'out-McCawing' McCaw.  Which is much easier said than done – but if anyone can do it, Lobbe can.

Prediction

Juan Martin Hernandez.  The Pumas looked about 1000 times more competent in their last outing than they did when they were on the end of a 60-point hiding in South Africa where, to be honest, the Orpington 2nd XV would have given them a run for their money.   But was that a performance borne out of improved attitude and application, or simply because they were at home?  It's a moot point to be honest because the All Blacks are going to win anyway, but an answer to the above question may determine by how much.  I think the Kiwis will coast this one in the 2nd half following a respectable first half showing from the visitors.  All Blacks by 23 points.
 

Premiership Big Match Preview - Northampton Saints v Exeter Chiefs

There have been some frankly ludicrous claims this week that the football transfer window Deadline Day should become a national holiday.  Personally, I'd rather shave my face with a cheese grater than be forced into a day of celebration to acknowledge the fact that some dweeb with 2 brain cells and an offensively poor haircut will earn more in one week than I will in several years.  It got me thinking – thank goodness the rugby public doesn't have to suffer all this melodrama. 

Although, if you look a little closer, you can see that the real beautiful game is edging ever closer to our diamond earring-wearing cousins, certainly in terms of transfers anyway.  Gone are the days where entire sides would be made up exclusively of blokes from the local area, with the only transfers coming when someone decided to move house.  No, these days, club transfers are increasingly common place, and every now and again there is a real jaw-dropper of a move – and Northampton, casting themselves as Real Madrid in the process, have pulled off 3 of them in one summer.

Saints picked themselves up from an average mid-season period with a couple of tremendous showings, in particular against Saracens in the semi-final, where their physicality was utterly brutal.  But there still remained occasional questions on their creativity and firepower out wide – and these have been answered rather emphatically with the signings of George North, the gargantuan, Aussie-hurling winger who has shone for Wales and the Lions, and Kahn Fotuali'I, the Samoan half back who spent last season winning games by himself for the Ospreys.  The latter in particular could prove to be the signing of the season.  And then there's Alex Corbisiero, who returned after a nightmare spell with injuries to lead the way to a Lions test victory with a superbly powerful and mobile performance – and his availability will be critical for given the departures of Soane Tonga'uiha and Brian Mujati.  Add these guys into a side that was already pretty impressive, and you have a fair few Saints fans who genuinely feel that this will be their year.

 

The Chiefs, in typical Rob Baxter fashion, have flown under the radar in pre-season and look to be putting their faith in the squad that has proven so reliable over the last two seasons, as well as looking to several promising youngsters in the form of Henry Slade, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Jack Nowell.  Exeter may not have the out-and-out star factor, but they have a pack that hits anything that moves, a backline that has real brains and a determination to not back down from anyone.  That's not to say they don't have useful blokes in their ranks – guys like Tom Johnson, Gareth Steenson and apparent part-times Sireli Naqelevuki could walk onto most Premiership sides.  Baxter has put his faith in the tried and trusted to take that next step into the playoffs.

Of course, the main reason I detest transfer Deadline Day is because people get more worked up over it than the games themselves – thankfully, that hasn't been passed on to rugby just yet.  Instead, we'll get down to the real business of the real beautiful game.  A new season begins – I can't wait to see what it brings.

Northampton Saints Team News

Jim Mallinder starts his new Lions George North and Alex Corbisiero but Kahn Fotauli'i will have to be content with a spot on the bench. Sam Dickinson will also make his debut for the Saints having missed last season through injury. Elsewhere, the team has a familiar look with England's Dylan Hartley, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood and Ben Foden all starting.

Starting Line up: Foden; K. Pisi, G. Pisi, Burrell, North; Myler, Dickson; Corbisiero, Hartley, Mercey, Lawes, Day, Wood, Dowson, Dickinson.

Subs: Haywood, Waller, Denman, Manoa, Clark, Fotuali'i, Wilson, Elliott.

Key Player

George North.  Well it would have to be wouldn't it?  I mean, Alex Corbisiero is arguably a more important signing given the rather large holes left by the departures of Soane Tonga'uiha and Brian Mujati, but if you wanted attention, Alex, you should have avoided playing prop and stuck with rapping.  There's no doubting North's ability and performance levels on the biggest stages – he is up there as one of the best wingers in the world at international level – but there have been times domestically for the Scarlets where he's gone missing.  He has to make sure that he starts his career at Franklins Gardens with a bang and works hard to get off his wing and create havoc.

Exeter Chiefs Team News

Exeter have handed out just one debut with Tom James taking his spot on the flanks. Dean Mumm skippers the Chiefs for the first time in the Premiership while Dave Ewers is named at No.8. Luke Arscott is sidelined, so Phil Dollman takes over at full-back in his absence. On the bench, centre Sam Hill is included in a Premiership squad for the first time while Dave Lewis is also named after moving to the club from Gloucester.

Starting Line up: Dollman; Jess, Whitten, Shoemark, James; Steenson, Thomas; Sturgess, Yeandle, Tui, Mumm (capt), Welch, Johnson, Scaysbrook, Ewers.

Subs: Whitehead, Moon, Rimmer, Hayes, White, Lewis, Slade, Hill.

Key Player

Gareth Steenson.  "Steeno" may look like he's just finishing his GCSEs, but don't be fooled – the Exeter stalwart has nerves of steel when kicking of the tea and a razor sharp mind when it comes to attacking with the ball in hand.  His form at the latter end of last season was simply sensational as he helped the Chiefs cement their place in the top 6 once again with virtuoso displays, most notably against Harlequins.  Exeter's success will most likely depend on how quick his brain and feet are at the beginning of a new season – Saints will be sending that friendly welcoming committee of Courtney Lawes and Manu Samoa out to ensure he has a rough day at the office.

Key Battle

Tom Johnson v Tom Wood.  The battle of the 2 Toms promises to be worth the price of admission alone, although I'm fairly sure that has also been said about the mere sight of George North and Alex Corbisiero in Saints shirts.  Both of these guys can play across the backrow, but their natural call is at 6, where they can bring their limitless energy and first-rate athleticism out into the wider channels.  Of the two, Wood is probably the more comfortable sticking his head in the dark areas of rucks and mauls, but the battle to get the upper hand in the close exchanges might be key to whether or not this vaunted Saints backline sees any of the ball.

Prediction

Northampton will be going in to this game with all the hype, whilst the majority of pundits seem to have almost written Exeter off this season, with relatively low key recruitment.  However, having their backs to the wall and being cast as the underdog generally brings out the best in the Chiefs and I can see them staying disciplined throughout.  If they're still in touch at half time, it could well go down to the wire…but Saints just look a class apart and have too many mouth-watering combinations – and I think there's a decent chance they'll explode out of the blocks and not look back.  Saints by 12.

 

Let's see what else is happening on the opening weekend of the Aviva Premiership...

Newcastle Falcons v Bath – Bath are the first club to make the fabled trip up to Mordor  Newcastle on a Friday night – a notoriously hard place to win.  Falcons will be competitive but it will take them a while to adjust to life in the top flight.  Bath by 9.

London Irish v Saracens – The first game of the London double header sees one of the favourites for the title taking on one of the favourites for the drop.  Saracens look very strong and Irish look very weak, having lost half their starting line up to other clubs.  Easy call.  Saracens by 25.

Gloucester v Sale Sharks – The Cherry and Whites are another side with playoff ambitions and may have pulled off one of the signings of the season in young Matt Kvesic.  The Sharks won't struggle as badly as they did last year but a trip to Kingsholm will be too much at this stage.  Gloucester by 11.

London Wasps v Harlequins – The second of the double headers should be a much tighter affair, with Quins not looking quite as strong as previous years and Wasps looking to break into the top 6 again.  If it's anything like last year we'll be in for a treat.  Quins by 6.
 

Leicester Tigers v Worcester Warriors - The Warriors, under Dean Ryan, will be a stubborn and abrasive side to play against, but Leicester still have bags of quality despite having the likes of Ben Youngs, Manu Tuilagi and Mathew Tait injured.  Too strong.  Tigers by 22.
 

Premiership Preview - Part 4

With Pre Season over, we can finally dispatch of that dreaded word “Friendly”.  We all know the expression, “There’s no such thing as a Friendly”, but I never truly understood it until I was on under 16 rugby tour in Holland with my local club.  Due to the traditional fixture mix-up, the team we were meant to be playing – a local college – were 80 miles away in another City, so we ended up playing a Belgian University’s women’s side in a so-called friendly.  Never have I experienced carnage like it, and I shan’t go into details, but suffice to say that the ‘gentlemanly’ rules that govern where you can or can’t grab/punch – unless you’re James So’oialo – did not apply to this game.

So now the Friendly season is out of the way, and I’ve got the above off my chest, let’s turn to Part 4 of RuckedOver’s Premiership Preview.

Sale Sharks

Coach:  Steve “Sod it, I’ll do it myself” Diamond.  He may have no patience and probably no sense of humour, Diamond is Sharks through and through and knows how to get what he wants, as he showed by leading his side to safety following a disastrous start under the now-demoted Bryan Redpath.

Captain:  Dan Braid.  It speaks volumes that he has only been at the club half a season and yet has been announced as captain already.  His industrious work rate and bulldozing carries were key to the Sharks finding safety last season after arriving to find them rooted to the bottom of the table. 

What happened last year?  Bryan Redpath managed to continue a losing run he had began at Gloucester with his new employers, Sale.  With a host of a big name signings such as Richie Gray and Danny Cipriani, Sale were touted as being dark horses for a playoff spot but ended up as disappointing as a Game of Thrones episode with no nudity.  They survived – just – but everyone was hoping for so much more.

How do they look this year?  Well, mostly the same as last year.  The positive for the Sharks is that they do have a good squad who underperformed last year, but did start to find their feet towards the end and picked up a couple of wins.  If they can continue where they left off they shouldn’t be near the dogfight at the bottom of the table, but it’s doubtful they have enough quality to push for a top 6 finish.

Players out:  Alasdair Dickinson (Edinburgh), Richie Gray (Castres), Richie Vernon (Glasgow Warriors), Andy Powell (Wigan Warriors), Corne Uys (Pays d'Aix), Charlie Amesbury (Bristol)

Players in:  Daniel Baines (Rotherham), Kirill Kulemin, Jonathan Mills, Phil Mackenzie, Tom Arscott (London Welsh), Andy Forsyth (Leicester Tigers), Michael Paterson (Cardiff Blues), Joe Ford (Leeds Carnegie)

Key Player:  Dwayne Peel.  The Welsh veteran remains a class act with gorgeous service and an eye for a gap.  His control of the game will be particularly valuable if the mercurial (read: inconsistent) Danny Cipriani is standing outside of him.

One to Watch:  Henry Thomas.  It was all looking so promising for the highly-rated young prop before he suffered a nasty knee injury early on in the season, but he bounced back superbly later on to claim a spot on England’s tour of Argentina, picking up a couple of caps in the process.  He’s not in the Elite squad for this year, but with his mobility and power you can bet he will be pushing very hard as the season progresses.

Prediction: 9^th.  Comfortable mid-table obscurity will feel like absolute bliss for the Sharks this time round.  They shouldn’t be troubled by thoughts of relegation, but they won’t be troubling the thoughts of the top four either – despite Salford on a Friday night being one of the trickiest fixtures in the calendar.

 

Saracens

Coach: Mark McCall.  For once there’s no suspicion of puppetry on behalf of Brendan Venter (he’s moved to the Natal Sharks) and so there’s no doubt who the main man is now.  McCall is backed up by a great team and they will want to continue some of the positive steps they made last season, despite missing out on the Final.

Captain: Steve Borthwick.  The evergreen lock may be one of the most boring men on the planet but he likes his lineouts and he knows his rugby.  Leading from the front is his way, and Saracens value his leadership and attributes even if international hopes have all but faded away.

What happened last year?  It all looked to be going so well.  They’d managed to turn their new home, Allianz Park, into something of a fortress and were playing some gorgeous, fast-paced and frankly un-Saracen rugby on there.  With first place in the Premiership in the bag, nobody expected them to fall at the semi-final stage...but that’s exactly what they did as they brutalised by a relentlessly physical Saints side.

How do they look this year?  It’s a family affair at Saracens this year as newly-capped number 8 Billy Vunipola arrives to make hay with his brother Mako, and with James Johnston they add some very considerable beef to an already sizeable pack.  Tim Streather also looks to be a sharp signing from Nottingham, if he can stay free of injury, but it’s the pack where the Sarries look the real deal – especially if Will Fraser can continue his superb form from last year.

Players out:  Andy Saull (Newcastle Falcons), Carlos Nieto, John Smit, Joe Maddock (Retired)

Players in:  Billy Vunipola (London Wasps), James Johnston (Harlequins), Tim Streather (Nottingham), Michael Tagicakibau (Bristol)

Key Player:  Will Fraser.  He was RuckedOver’s player of the season last year and for good reason.  His relentlessly physical defence and superb scavenging work was indicative of the “Wolf Pack” mentality the side claim to have developed.  If he maintains that form from last year, Saracens will not only be challenging at the top of the pile, but Fraser may find himself in an England shirt too.

One to Watch:  Billy Vunipola.  It’s hard not to spot him really.  Being a raw talent was both wonderful and forgivable whilst he was young, but he has to now grow up and play a more mature game.  Saracens will have been hammering home the conditioning on the giant number 8, and if he can add fitness levels and awareness to his already burgeoning skill set then we may just see a very handy player emerge.

Prediction:  2^nd (Runners Up).  Like Leicester, Sarries have refined rather than gone for wholesale changes, and I fully expect them to be even stronger than last year.  The only issue for them is if they can find the finishing expertise out wide – both Strettle and Ashton were handy in parts last year, but nowhere near consistent enough.  I envisage a very close run chase in the League and an even closer battle in the Final, but I think Sarries will fall just short.

 

Worcester Warriors

Coach:  Dean Ryan.  He did a decent job with Gloucester and a decent job with Scotland but his best work has been as a Sky Sports analyst where he seems the only bloke around there who knows what he’s on about – although he does only have the myopic Stuart Barnes and Dewi Morris for competition.  Let’s see if he can put his money where his mouth is and help Worcester Warriors move away from the relegation scraps fans at Sixways are so used to.  It’s his first season after taking over from Richard Hill.

Captain:  Jonathan Thomas.  A new era under Dean Ryan has meant a new captain – even if he is a new addition.  Thomas is an experienced Welsh international who can be relied upon to make the right decisions when the going gets tough – a shrewd call by Ryan, and one that immediately stamps his mark on the team.

What happened last year?  They were looking a pretty solid bet for a mid table finish before an abysmal run after Christmas, which saw just the one win from their last 11 games, led to them slumping down to 11^th place and Richard Hill losing his job.

How do they look this year?  Some smart signings in the forms of Thomas, Ignacio Mieres and Paul Warwick are promising for the Warriors, but they’ve also lost a hell of a lot of talent, in particular young flanker Matt Kvesic and points machine Andy Goode.  Ryan has picked up players to slot right into these spots but there’s no guarantee they’ll click – and other areas of the team still look suspect.

Players out:  Matt Mullan, Joe Carlisle, Andy Goode (London Wasps), Ollie Hayes (Bristol Rugby), Aleki Lutui (Edinburgh), Neil Best (London Scottish), Matt Kvesic (Gloucester), Blair Cowan (London Irish), Nikki Walker (Edinburgh), Errie Claassens (Bristol), Craig Gillies (Retirement)

Players in:  Paul Andrew (Cornish Pirates), Jérémy Bécasseau (Stade Francais), Ofa Fainga'anuku (Glasgow Warriors), Chris Brooker (Harlequins), Agustin Creevy (Montpellier), Michael Williams (Blue Bulls), Jonathan Thomas (Ospreys), Cameron Goodhue (Auckland Blues), Leonardo Senatore (Pampas XV), Jeremy Su'a (Crusaders), Ignacio Mieres (Exeter Chiefs), Paul Warwick (Stade Francais), James Stephenson (Bedford Blues)

Key Player:  Ignacio Mieres.  The former Exeter Chiefs 10 endured a difficult season last year after being usurped by Gareth Steenson, so he’s joined the Warriors for regular first team action.  He has big boots (not to mention a big shirt) to fill at Sixways though.  Andy Goode may not have been the most stylish of flyhalves but his boot won the Warriors countless games and his playmaking ability was vastly underrated.  Mieres must at least match Goode’s influence if the Warriors are going to avoid a relegation scrap this year.

One to Watch:  Leonardo Senatore.  The 29 year old flanker may be a bit of a late bloomer on the international scene but he is making a big impact, looking mightily impressive in the Pumas’ narrow defeat at home to the Springboks in the Rugby Championship.  This is his first taste of fully professional club rugby (aside from a very short stint at Toulon) and, if he sets his mind to it, his physicality and aggression could become one of the Warriors’, and the Premiership’s, success stories.

Prediction:  11^th.  Dean Ryan is a very competent coach, and that is why the Warriors will stay up this season.  There are some great players scattered throughout this Warriors side, but would anyone make a top four starting line up?  Doubtful.  There remain to many weak links within the Worcester side and they have a lack of depth which must be concerning.  They will always be competitive at home though and I think they have just enough class to avoid the drop.
 

Premiership Preview - Part 3

All the talk pre-season has been about scrums, which has probably made props all over the world weep with joy at finally being the centre of attention.  How the new rules will affect the scrums, we’ll have to wait and see, but the teams in Part 3 of RuckedOver’s Premiership Preview also have props at the forefront: one is coached by a former prop, one has signed one of the world’s best props, and the other has a former number 8 who is now the size of 2 props as its Director of Rugby...

London Wasps

Coach:  Dai Young.   He must be feeling Dai Old by now, as he enters his 3rd year at the helm of the London club.  Under his tenure, Wasps have gradually improved from relegation scrappers in his first season to all-action entertainers, as they were last year to the extent that they were within a real shout of the playoffs with 5 games to go.

Captain:  Chris Bell.  A rock in defence, Bell is frankly a relieving figure of solidarity in a side that is characterised by speed and flair.  He's a tough nut in the middle of the park and is a figure this young Wasps side can rally around.

What happened last year?  Despite having a collapse the Australian upper batting order would be concerned about at the end of last season, Wasps managed to turn their fortunes around from the previous year and were very much in the hunt for playoff and European spots for the most part.  Plus they were playing one heck of a brand of rugby – when both their wingers, Tom Varndell and Christian Wade, topped the Premiership try charts with 13 tries apiece, you get a sense of the style that Dai Young has developed at Adams Park.

How do they look this year?  Well there's been a couple of decent signings, but the real question is how the already-lightweight Wasps pack will fare without the bulldozing talent of Billy Vunipola and salmon-like lineout specialist Marco Wentzel.  Wentzel in particular is a huge loss as his leadership and set-piece nous have been key to Wasps' revival.

Players out:  Zac Taulafo (Stade Francais), Rhys Thomas (Dragons), Marco Wentzel (Released), Billy Vunipola (Saracens), Nicky Robinson (Bristol), Will Robinson (London Welsh), Jack Wallace (Bristol), Stephen Jones, Lee Thomas, Tim Payne (Retirement)

Players in:  Matt Mullan (Worcester Warriors), Taione Vea (North Harbour), Neil Cochrane (Bedford Blues), Esteban Lozada (Agen), Kearnan Myall (Sale Sharks), Ed Jackson (London Welsh), Nathan Hughes (Auckland), Rory Pitman (Rotherham), Jack Moates (London Irish), Joe Carlisle, Andy Goode (Worcester Warriors), Ben Jacobs (Western Force), William Helu (Roma)

Key Player:  Andy Goode.  Goodey has been the subject of a fair amount of teasing over the years – predominantly because he looks like a space hopper with a mullet – but there is no doubting his quality as a Premiership fly half over the years.  With Nicky Robinson moving west and Stephen Jones joining the coaching staff, it will be up to Goode to control the game when the Wasps pack is under pressure, kick the points and unleash the sheer speed outside of him.  Expect a lot of cross-kicks from that cultured right boot of his.

One to Watch:  Matt Mullan.  Yes, we're all excited about Christian Wade again, but I'm intrigued by the prospect of seeing the young ex-Warrior get some game time.  At one point he was hailed as England's future in the front row but, since his one cap of the bench against Italy in 2010, he seems to have drifted well and truly off the radar.  He will be hungry to make the most of his fresh start and get his name back on people's lips.

Prediction: 7th.  I think that with the talent and culture that Dai Young is building at the club, there is every reason to be optimistic, despite the losses of Vunipola and Wentzel.  The playoffs will probably be too much of stretch for them but they may will be looking at a top half finish – although I think the lack of comparative depth in their squad means they'll fall just short.

Newcastle Falcons

Coach: Dean Richards.  The bear is back in the big time.  Deano might be maligned for his role in "The B-Word", but I maintain he was probably no worse than a lot of other coaches out there at the time – he was the one that got caught.  That said, his name was rightfully muddied after that and he will be desperate to have people talking about him for all the right reasons once again – there is no doubting his superb ability as a coach.

Captain: Will Welch.  The flanker is not the biggest name on Falcons' books but his dynamic play last year in the Championship was a key factor behind Newcastle's dominance.  Richards has set down a marker to his squad by keeping faith with the man that led the Falcons back up to the Premiership, and Welch, with three years of Premiership experience from when  the Falcons were last in the top flight, will be keen to repay him.

What happened last year?  The Geordies smashed their way all-comers in the Championship, winning every single game before coming unstuck against Bristol in the last regular match of the season, but they still managed to squeeze their way past Leeds and Bedford in the playoffs to claim a place back in the Premiership.  They also made the final of the British and Irish Cup, losing to Leinster's second string by a single point.

How do they look this year?  Deano looks to have been a real sharp operator, signing blokes on the cusp of being first choice from various clubs – and has assembled a lot of quality in the process to complement an already solid looking outfit.  Guys like Kieran Brookes, Noah Cato, Rory Clegg and Andy Saull all have Saxons experience and are young enough and hungry enough to make a give this Falcons side a real boost.

Players out:  James Hall (Bristol), Michael Mayhew (London Irish), James Hudson (Gloucester), Taiasina Tui'fua (Bordeaux Begles), Jordi Pasqualin (London Scottish), Rory Lawson, Jon Golding (Retirement)

Players in:  Kieran Brookes (Leicester Tigers), Franck Montanella (London Welsh), Scott Lawson (London Irish), Dominic Barrow (Leeds Carnegie), Fraser McKenzie (Sale Sharks), Andy Saull (Saracens), Mike Blair (Brive), Rory Clegg (Harlequins), Phil Godman (London Scottish), Danny Barnes (Munster), Noah Cato (Northampton Saints)

Key Player:  Mike Blair.  The retirement of Rory Lawson and Jimmy Gopperth’s hop over the Irish sea has left a leadership gap at half-back that the veteran Scotsman is ideally placed to fill.  His experience and lightening service will be critical to giving the flaky but talented Phil Godman or the young Rory Clegg all the time in the world to show what they can do.  He’s not afraid of voicing an opinion either, so his forwards will be kept nicely in check.

One to Watch:  Rory Clegg.  The young fly half was once tipped for stardom but being forced to sit on the bench behind the outstanding Nick Evans caused him to struggle for consistency at Harlequins.  When he’s confident, Clegg is a smooth operator with a silky pass and a cultured boot – hopefully he will grow into the side as the games come along.

Prediction:  10^th.  I can’t see any reason why this Newcastle side can’t stay up – and comfortably too.  They have a very competitive squad assembled, the mastermind Dean Richards at the helm and they occasionally play home games in conditions that make Mordor seem like a pleasant holiday destination by comparison – all this means that they are going to upset a fair few sides at Kingston Park.

Northampton Saints

Coach:  Jim Mallinder.  His crinkly head and overly-smiley interviewing style have always got on my nerves for some reason, but there is no doubting his dedication to the job in hand and his ability to go with it.  He pulled Saints out of their semi-final curse last year to get to the Final – only for their hard work to be undone by an infamous slip of the tongue by an increasingly infamous captain.

Captain:  Dylan Hartley.  Well, for most people you could put his ‘error’ down to a slip of a tongue, but probably not Hartley, given his record.  Despite that, he will be desperate to repay the faith Mallinder has shown in him by getting his head down and working hard – when he does that, he is a superb hooker.  If he can replicate the type of form he showed when Saints thumped Saracens in the semi-final, he may well push his name back into the thoughts of Stuart Lancaster for the right reasons.

What happened last year?  The usual early season impressive burst was followed by the usual late season slump, the low point being a drubbing at home from rivals Leicester.  It all seemed very ‘usual’ Saints with another 4^th placed finish, but then they turned Saracens over on their own turf with a phenomenally physical display, and were going toe-to-toe with Leicester in the Final before Hartley’s dismissal made it mission impossible.   That said, even with 14 men they played like men possessed, and if they can pull out the same levels of performance with 15 this year then they really will mean business.

How do they look this year?  Mallinder, who usually is fairly subtle on the transfer front, has gone all ‘Premier League’ on us and brought in two blokes who, as they proved on the Lions Tour, are among the very best in the business.  Alex Corbisiero and George North were sensational for the tourists against the Wallabies and Saints fans will be licking their lips in anticipation at what they can do for their side.  The question is, though, will the signing of Corbisiero be enough to compensate for the loss of powerhouses Brian Mujati and Soane Tonga’uiha...and will George North actually get the ball?

Players out:  Paul Doran-Jones (Harlequins), Soane Tonga'uiha, Brian Mujati (Racing Metro), Tom Hicks (Gloucester), Mark Sorensen (Bristol), Martin Roberts (Bath), Ryan Lamb (Leicester), Tom May (London Welsh), Noah Cato (Newcastle Falcons)

Players in:  Alex Corbisiero (London Irish), Salesi Ma'afu (Western Force), Gareth Denman (Rotherham), Rob Verbakel, Glenn Dickinson (Otago), Kahn Fotuali'i (Ospreys), George North (Scarlets)

Key Player:  Kahn Fotuali’i.  Somewhere – out of nowhere – he has been declared one the best scrum halves in the world.  And rightly so.  The Samoan was often a one man team for the Ospreys, to the point that his brilliance nearly knocked Leicester out in the group stages last year.  With Stephen Myler always solid rather than spectacular, Fotuali’i will have to take responsibility for the creative sparks to get this exciting Saints side going forward - plus he can cover 10 as well.

One to Watch:  George North.  Ok, we know who he is and it’s sort of hard not to see him coming, but it will be really interesting to see how he settles in to the Saints gameplan and to see how he is used.  Expect to see him charging up the middle of the park off his blindside wing and keeping defences worried.

Prediction:  3^rd (semi-final).  These signings are all great for the club, but with the scrum looking shaky against top opponents without their 2 stalwart props last season, and new signing Salesi Ma’afu not known for his work in the tight, they are placing a lot of faith on Corbisiero to anchor the scrum.  Given his injury rate and, more positively, his international call-ups, I have a feeling the set piece may wobble this year against the top teams – which ultimately means they may fall just short again. 
 

Premiership Preview - Part 2

One day closer to the beginning of the season and one day closer to the inevitable Sunday hangover following the London Double Header – where the London clubs provide background light entertainment to a 50'000-strong binge-athon.  Harlequins and London Irish will both be there to kick off proceedings, whilst Leicester open their title defence at Welford Road.  How will each side fare this year?  Check out Part 2 of RuckedOver's Premiership Preview…

Harlequins

Coach:  Conor O’Shea.  The Irishman has done wonders with the Harlequins side over the years and his dedication to blooding young English talent has won him many admirers from opposition fans as well.  He’ll need to be at his sharpest this season as it promises to be one of the tightest yet.

Captain:  Chris Robshaw.  According to my girlfriend, he should have gone on the Lions tour.  And be made to play shirtless.  I have to say I agree with half of that statement (you choose which half) but the England man must overcome the disappointment of missing out and rediscover his immense 6 Nations form – his place in the national set up may also be up for grabs.

What happened last year?  A little hot and cold from the young Londoners, who impressed with an LV=Cup win (as one of 4 teams who took it seriously) and they made the semi-finals in the Premiership once again, only to take a pasting from Leicester.  Perhaps it was fatigue, but there were a couple of noticeable cracks in the latter stages of last season.

How do they look this year?  It’s not been a particularly busy summer in terms of new faces, but the players they have brought in are experienced heads who will certainly add depth to the squad.  Once again, though, O’Shea seems to be looking towards his kindergarten for answers and there looks to be bags of talent available.  The question is though, how quickly will they settle?

Players out:  James Johnston (Saracens), Chris Brooker (Worcester Warriors), Peter Browne, Seb Stegmann (London Welsh), Rory Clegg (Newcastle Falcons), Olly Kohn, Will Skinner (retired)

Players in:  Paul Doran-Jones (Northampton Saints), Nick Kennedy (Toulon), Paul Sackey (Stade Francais)

Key Player:  Danny Care.  With Nick Evans now occasionally starting to have the odd off-day, the man with worst haircut in the Premiership needs to reach the levels of consistency he hit last year to lead the Quins’ attacking threat.  If he can work on bringing his teammates into the game, rather than looking to go himself when it’s not on, he will have a great shot at the England 9 shirt.

One to Watch:  Charlie Walker.  A little bit of an unknown, perhaps, but, trust me, the kid has serious wheels and phenomenally balanced running style.  He’s been tearing it up in pre-season and in sevens (see below), and with an injury to Ross Chisholm there’s every chance young Walker might see some action and hopefully, for Quins fans, some space.  Keep an eye out for the outstanding number 8 Jack Clifford as well, who captained the U20s to World Championship success.

Prediction: 5th.  Yikes, I change my mind about this every 2 minutes – one second they’re potential winners, the next they’re out of the playoffs.  I just think that the men from West London looked a little bit lightweight and vulnerable towards the tail end of last year – teams seemed to figure them out.  If they can get off to a flyer, they’ll be hard to catch, but I think it will be an almighty scrap for the top 4 this season.

 

Leicester Tigers

Coach: Richard Cockerill.  ‘The egg’ is generally disliked by everyone aside from Leicester fans, but even his detractors admire his honesty.  The fourth official at the Premiership final probably didn’t though, as he took a verbal bashing from the Leicester coach that landed him a ban that will see him miss the first 5 Premiership games of the season.

Captain: Toby Flood.  With Geordan Murphy making his way onto the coaching staff, the Tigers 10 with ears like the FA Cup will take over on a full-time basis.  He handled the role superbly last season and, being a fly half, enjoyed yapping at people all the time anyway.  The only worry is his liability to pick up injuries – he’s likely to miss the start of the season after being knocked out by a brutal forearm from Dan Tuohy in pre-season.

What happened last year?  Predictably, the Tigers hit a great run of form towards the back end of the season and comfortably clinched 2^nd place, before bulldozing their way through Harlequins for their 9^th consecutive final and turning over Northampton for their 10^th English title.  They also managed to play some decent rugby as well as they topped the try-scoring charts for the 3^rd time in 4 years.

How do they look this year?  There’s been no major signings to particularly impact the first choice team, but as usual the Tigers seem to have ridiculous strength in depth.  Established players such as Jamie Gibson, Ryan Lamb and David Mele might expect first team rugby from other teams but they’ll be very much squad players for the East Midlanders – but they’ll be key to Leicester’s success.  Also look out for Miles Benjamin (remember him?) who will be looking to make his debut after picking up a neck injury after signing 14 months ago.

Players out:  Martin Castrogiovanni (Toulon), Jimmy Stevens (London Irish), Rob Andrew (London Welsh), Richard Thorpe (London Welsh), Micky Young, George Ford (Bath Rugby), Andy Forsyth (Sale Sharks), Geordan Murphy (Retired)

Players in:  Tim Bristow (London Welsh), Jérôme Schuster, David Mele (Perpignan), Neil Briggs (London Welsh), Sebastian De Chaves (Stade Montois), Jamie Gibson (London Irish), Ryan Lamb (Northampton Saints), Owen Williams (Scarlets), Gonzalo Camacho (Exeter Chiefs)

Key Player:  Ben Youngs.  Every time I watch the Tigers play it is obvious how critical he is to their gameplan – his speed around the fringes and ability to put players through gaps is the platform for Leicester’s attacking game, whilst his strong box-kicking provides a strong exit strategy.  The only problem is that, when he gets ruffled, the Tigers struggle – if he can cut out the odd flap and keep his head under pressure, then he and his side will enjoy great seasons.

One to Watch:  Ed Slater.  OK, so he isn’t exactly a newbie at 25, and he’s not exactly hard to keep an eye out for at 6 foot 6 and almost 18 and a half stones, but the abrasive lock was phenomenal last season and this one may well be his breakthrough at international level.  The man with a jaw line to put Desperate Dan to shame has all the aggression and physicality you would want of a ‘grafter’ but also a surprising turn of pace and a cheeky set of hands.

Prediction:  1^st – Champions.  Yes, it’s the easy choice to make, but Leicester haven’t lost any real front-line players – the fading Martin Castrogiovanni apart – and have brought in some sharp talent to already complement a surprisingly young squad that’s only going to be better after one more year’s experience.  The only question will be how they cope with a fight on 2 fronts – European and domestic.

 

London Irish

Coach:  Brian Smith.  The ex-England backs coach had a pretty miserable time at the helm last year and it's difficult to see many more reasons to be optimistic this year, with half of his first choice side shipping out to different clubs.  It looks like he tore most of his hair out last season, but there's every chance he may picking out whatever's left throughout the next 8 months.

Captain:  Declan Danaher and George Skivington.  I've never understood having a shared captaincy – especially not between 2 of the biggest bruisers on the park.  At least if it was with a lock and a scrum half you know who would have the final say…However, veteran Danaher may well be hanging up his boots at the end of this season and so will be keen to go out with a bang whilst ex-Tiger Skivington proved himself as one of the club's rare success stories last year.  Both men will lead from the front.

What happened last year?  The best of a bad bunch was as good as it got for the Irish, as they clawed their way to the top of the 'relegation pack' following a nightmare start to the season which saw them arm-wrestling with Sale in a contest of who could produce the most inept displays.

How do they look this year?  Pretty different, it's fair to say.  If you look at the quality of players who have left, the vast majority were first team shoe-ins for Irish and Smith seems to have only replaced them with fringe Premiership players or ambitious chaps from the Championship.  Of course, how they gel as a team is more important but there's no substitute for out and out quality.

Players out:  Alex Corbisiero (Northampton Saints), Max Lahiff (Melbourne Rebels), Jerry Yanuyanutawa (Glasgow Warriors), James Buckland (London Scottish), Scott Lawson (Newcastle Falcons), James Sandford (Cornish Pirates), Matt Garvey, Jonathan Joseph, Anthony Watson, David Sisi (Bath Rugby), Jack Moates (London Wasps), Steven Shingler (Scarlets), Joe Ansbro (Retired)

Players in:  In: Jamie Hagan (Leinster), Johnny Harris, Jimmy Stevens, Patrick Phibbs, Alex Lewington (Leicester Tigers), Matt Parr, Nic Rouse (Nottingham), Blair Cowan (Worcester Warriors), Myles Dorrian (Exeter Chiefs), Eamonn Sheridan, Fergus Mulchrone (Rotherham), Andy Fenby (Scarlets)

Key Player:  George Skivington.  With the excellent Matt Garvey part of the 4-strong raid by Bath in the off-season, Big Skiv will need to step up to the mark and offer physical domination in both the set-piece and the loose.  With a relatively inexperienced side, Irish cannot afford to play on the back foot too often, and so it will be up to the likes of Skivington to ensure that the Irish pack doesn't get bullied.

One to Watch:  Marland Yarde.  He took his chance for England in the summer with both hands and, with Chris Ashton showing all the confidence of a new-born foal last year, he must know that there are international spots up for grabs.  If he can continue to show the speed, balance and power he demonstrated last year, then it could not only see him emerge as a first-choice England winger, but also provide Irish with the attacking threat they will desperately need to stay up.

Prediction:  12th.  Brian Smith has rightly talked about having no egos in his team and how they will all play for each other – but I struggle to see how losing half of your better players can possibly be conducive to that.  They are going to need to find a gameplan that makes them competitive quickly, or else we may be seeing the Reading-based club in the Championship next year.
 

Premiership Preview - Part 1

It’s hard to believe that we’ve already arrived at another Premiership season – it hardly feels like a week ago that we were learning the wonderful breadth of Dylan Hartley’s vocabulary as Leicester Tigers beat Northampton Saints to take a record 10^th English title. 

Throughout the summer teams have been busy bringing in fresh faces and getting crocked players fit again but there still remains the same old questions as before every season:  Will anyone stop Leicester this year?  Will Saracens play rugby more entertaining than a paint drying competition?  Will Danny Care continue to defy the laws of common sense and have an unmitigated disaster of a haircut?  All classic queries, and all posed once again – along with several new ones, of course.

So let’s get underway with RuckedOver’s preview of the new season by checking out the prospects of Bath, the Chiefs and Gloucester – 3 sides who will have their eyes on a playoff spot this year.

Bath

Coach:  Gary Gold.  Despite sounding like an average 70s pop star who's now doing the rounds on various cruise ships, Gold is a solid character and a canny tactician.  He will be desperate for more fireworks from his side this year though.

Captain:  Stuart Hooper.  Solid and unspectacular, he is the example of a 'good club man' – which basically means he's decent at club level without getting anywhere near an international shirt.  Hard as nails, mind, and leads from the front.

What happened last year?  Agony for the men from the Rec as they were just pipped to a Heineken Cup spot.  But despite the wealth of talent in their side, they were generally inhibited by playing negative, kick-chase rugby, which was about appealing to watch as the X-Factor.  A decent charge at the end of the season and a cracking win over Leicester would have left a positive feeling amongst the side though.

How do they look this year?  With sugar daddy Bruce Craig loosening the purse strings again, the West Country outfit have brought in a plethora of talent…and Gavin Henson.  The trick now is to make sure that they all gel as a team and stop punching each other in bars – which may be easier said than done.

Players out:  Lee Mears, Dan Hipkiss (retired), Michael Claassens (Toulon), Stephen Donald (Mitsubishi Dynaboars), Jack Cuthbert (Edinburgh), Ben Skirving (Bristol), Sam Vesty (Worcester Warriors), Simon Taylor, Mark McMillan (released)

Players in:  Juan Pablo Orlandi (Racing Metro), Matt Garvey, David Sisi, Jonathan Joseph, Anthony Watson (London Irish), Micky Young, George Ford (Leicester Tigers), Gavin Henson (London Welsh), Peter Stringer (Munster), Martin Roberts (Northampton Saints), Leroy Houston (Colomiers), Alafoti Fa'osiliva (Bristol Rugby)

Key Player:  Francois Louw.  The South African flanker is up there as one of the best snafflers in the business, and the fact that he will be away on international duty for much of the first third of the season underlines the importance of his form when he returns.

One to Watch:  Kyle Eastmond.  I could have said George Ford, but I think he will struggle to get past the excellent Tom Heathcote at the moment, or Mickey Young, with the departure of Michael Claassens, but instead I've gone for the diminutive centre who lit up the rugby pitch in both Bath and England shirts at the back end of last season.  If he can perform to that level consistently he will cement himself in the international set up and give Bath some serious firepower in the middle of the park.

Prediction: 6th.  I think they'll see some improvement, but it will take a while for the side to settle – and as long as the Gavin Henson Car Crash Circus doesn't rumble into town they should get a top half finish.

 

Exeter Chiefs

Coach: Rob Baxter.  One of the nicest blokes in the game, he is representative of an Exeter side that is popular amongst the rest of the League and one of the few clubs that isn't hated by supporters of another one, somewhere.  Although it's easy to say that when you're not sitting in the changing rooms of Sandy Park having had the stuffing kicked out of you.

Captain: Dean Mumm.  After an impressive showing last year, 'Mumm' really was the word (sorry) when Rob Baxter was picking his skipper for this season.  The ex-Waratahs man is powerful and mobile and already a popular figure amongst the Sandy Park faithful.

What happened last year?  Another year of being written off, and another year of guaranteeing top-flight European rugby.  Perhaps the Chiefs will be a little disappointed at not being able to kick on to a Playoff spot, but their strong end to the season solidified their position in the upper echelons of the English and European game.

How do they look this year?  Er…pretty much the same, except without those 2 warhorses Richard Baxter and Chris 'the Ball' Budgen.  The signings look very Exeter-like, with no real superstars but some proven operators none-the-less – and as long as they have the human juggernaut Sireli Naqelevuki fit at least 20% of the time, they will be dangerous.

Players out:  Neil Clark (Oyonnax), Aly Muldowney (Connacht), Ignacio Mieres (Worcester Warriors), Josh Tatupu (Carcassonne), Gonzalo Camacho (Leicester Tigers), Mark Foster (Jersey), Watisoni Votu (Perpignan), Chris Budgen, Richard Baxter, Kevin Barrett, Junior Poluleuligaga (retired)

Players in:  Greg Bateman (London Welsh), Don Armand (Stormers), Dave Lewis (Gloucester), Ceri Sweeney, Tom James (Cardiff Blues), Fetu'u Vainikolo (Connacht)

Key Player:  Gareth Steenson.  Last year he went from second choice fly half to a (very) left-field shout at being a Lions tourist.  He's always been a superb kicker but halfway through last season he began attacking the line and showing some marvellous footwork and awareness.  He was key behind the Chiefs' resurgence last year and he will be critical to their success this year.

One to Watch:  Luke Cowan-Dickie.  Great player, sh*t haircut.  Danny Care will be nervously looking over his shoulder when it comes to awards time as the youngster will look to take the bad-barnet from the man who's held a monopoly over it for the last 4 years.  Cowan-Dickie will be more concerned about rugby however – awesome for the U20s in the 6 Nations, even better the World Championship…can he make the step up?

Prediction:  8th.  I hate to make the critical error of writing the Chiefs off again but they don't look to have brought in anyone capable of giving them that extra spark to push them forward.  They will remain in the mix but unless they get off to a good start I think mid-table obscurity may beckon.
 

 

Gloucester Rugby

Coach:  Nigel Davies.  The ex-Scarlets coach starts his second year in the knowledge that if he gets his team playing consistently how they played in parts last season, they have a great opportunity to make the playoffs.

Captain:  Tom Savage.  Last year's Mr Verstatile must now become the go-to guy for the Cherry and Whites following the departure of the Missing Link, Jim Hamilton.  It's both an exciting and daunting prospect for the 24 year old lock-cum-flanker and it will be interesting to see how he handles it.

What happened last year?  An improvement on Bryan Redpath's efforts, that's for sure.  Gloucester played some stunning rugby at times at frankly frightening speeds, although there was always the suspicion of looking a little bit wet on occasion, which saw them getting bullied up front.

How do they look this year?  A relatively low-key off-season sees one stand-out name on his way to Kingsholm – young ex-Warriors flanker Matt Kvesic.  That said, he won't be able to beef up the pack all by himself and although they've still got bags of talent all over the park, it's still not too difficult to see them taking the odd physical pasting every now and again.

Players out:  Dario Chistolini (Zebre), Jim Hamilton (Montpellier), Dave Lewis (Exeter Chiefs), Drew Locke (Jersey), Will Graulich (Cornish Pirates), Alex Brown, Peter Buxton (retired), Tommaso D'Apice (released).

Players in:  Dan George (London Welsh), Tom Hicks (Northampton Saints), James Hudson (Newcastle Falcons), Matt Kvesic (Worcester Warriors), Tavis Knoyle (Scarlets), Jonny Bentley (Cornish Pirates)

Key Player:  Freddie Burns.  Despite looking like he'd be at home with a can of Special Brew outside your local Asda, Burns has proven himself to be a role-model not just to the young Gloucester fans but also to his team mates.  He had a stunning start to last season, tailed off a bit, and then showed some real grit and positive attitude to come back and impress in the later stages for his club.  And, judging by his displays for England in the summer, he's ready to take the next step.

One to Watch:  Billy Twelvetrees.  I could quite easily mention Burns or Kvesic, but they've already been mentioned and to be honest the Cherry and Whites have too many talented young players to list them all.  This could be Twelvetrees' season to cement a place in the England set up so he needs to start the season with a bang – with all signs pointing to a drop in the international pecking order for the solid-but-limited Brad Barritt, we could see a shoot-out between Twelvetrees and Eastmond for that 12 shirt.

Prediction:  4th (semi-finals). They will be pushing seriously hard for a playoff spot this year and, controversially, I'm going to guess that they'll nick it.  They might not reach the final, but I suspect this will be a big step in the right direction for Gloucester.