Valentines Day.A
day of profound statements of love, extravagant purchases in bids to win
affections and forcing singletons to contemplate their very existence.Or, in my personal view, the biggest, most
commercialised pile of tripe since the Crazy Frog song.My girlfriend is a lucky lady (although I am
taking her to the cinema to see some mainstream pornography, apparently).Of course, love will be far from the minds of
England and Italy's starting XVs by the time that kick off comes around at
Twickenham.You would hope so, anyway.
These two sides approach this game from completely
opposite ends of the expectation spectrum.The hosts, England, are now being prematurely hailed as world beaters
after a fine victory in Cardiff, arguably their best Six Nations display for a
decade, given the circumstances.With
the back-row earning particular praise for an all action display, the losses of
Tom Wood and Ben Morgan feel slightly less significant than before, and trio
were ably supported by strong showings from Jonathan Joseph, George Ford, Ben
Youngs and Mike Brown.All players in
key positions, and it bodes well for England that they are starting to
click.Of particular note was the way
the forward runners manage to integrate themselves into the attack of the
shoulders of Youngs and Ford.Previously, far too often, we have seen the forwards rumble around
slowly and then the backs spin it wide and end up nowhere.Here, England played at a high tempo and with
Youngs and Ford playing flat, the runners were able to pick dangerous holes of
their shoulders – Lancaster will want more of the same this weekend.
Italy, of course, went into last weekend's game against
Ireland as underdogs despite beating the Emerald Isle there in 2013.The sad fact is that the Azzurri have
regressed since that heady day, and won just one match in 2014, at home against
Samoa – a run which included away losses against the Samoans, Fiji and
Japan.There are talented players within
their ranks, of course, legends such as Parisse, Castrogiovanni and Bortolami,
but the same old positions come back as problems for the men in blue.The half backs remain unconvincing, with 28
year-old Kiwi Kelly Haimona looking like a physical presence with relatively
little in the way of creative spark, and the centres look shorn of class –
particularly now youngster Michele Campagnaro has been ruled out with a knee
injury.Of course, they managed to
frustrate Ireland for large portions of the game – their defence was stifling
and aggressive, their set piece solid – but in terms of a tangible threat they
seem to be sorely lacking in invention.And Twickenham is not a place to come and chance your arm in that
respect.
Yes, England have been overhyped since that superb win in
Cardiff, and in many ways the Italian game is a lose-lose situation; unless
they win by a cricket score, their performance will be picked apart by the
media.And with rain forecast, there is
a chance that the Italians will succeed in turning the game into an
arm-wrestle.But the fact is, England
will – well, they should – have too much in the locker for the Azzurri.
It may be Valentines Day, but an upset is out of the
question for the rugby romantic.
England Team
News
England are unchanged from the side that beat Wales last
weekend. Stuart Lancaster had hoped to
pick Geoff Parling among the replacements but the Leicester lock is yet to recover
from a knee injury, and George Kruis and Jonathan Joseph make their first
Twickenham starts.
Ben Youngs.The
Leicester man had a superb outing against Wales and, in my view, should have
been handed the man of the match award.His ability to snipe past tight 5 forwards and create confusion was the
key behind England's improved attack after the break and reminded us of that
spark when he broke onto the scene in 2010.The problem with Youngs though is that he has been infuriatingly
inconsistent in previous seasons gone – brilliant one match, abysmal the
next.But the captaincy at Leicester has
done him the world of good – his form has been building all year and, now he
has his tail up, it is his job to keep the tempo up and ensure England aren't
dragged into an arm wrestle by Italians.
Italy Team News
Italy make four changes from the side beaten by Ireland
with Mauro Bergamasco and Marco Bortolami returning to the pack along with prop
Alberto De Marchi. Giovanbattista
Venditti starts at left wing, Luke McLean goes to full-back and Andrea Masi
moves to inside centre.
Kelly Haimona.The
new fly half did a solid job in the autumn internationals and certainly wasn't
poor against Ireland, but 'not poor' is not really what the Italians need.Haimona is a big unit for a fly half and can
certainly offer some ballast, but that won't worry strong defences like
England's – the Azzurri need creativity and tactical awareness.If Italy are to have a sniff in this game he
will need to play an astute tactical game – getting his side into the right
areas with the boot.If he can do that,
then the men in white will become frustrated, the home crowd will grow
restless, and the visitors will be in with shout.
Key Battle
Billy Vunipola v Sergio Parisse.Two very different number eights but they are
both critical to the way their side plays.It was no coincidence that England's threat grew throughout the game as
Billy Vunipola began to make more yards on the carry.Once he beats the first man, he often sucks
in two or three more defenders and, with quick ball, that creates plenty of
gaps for England to exploit.Parisse, as
is well-known, has been one of the world's best eights for some time and is
altogether more athletic prospect than Vunipola, getting involved in all facets
of the game – carrying, passing and tackling.He was, however, kept quiet against Ireland and his side simply have to
find a way to help get him into the game so he can influence proceedings; you
get the feeling that the man who we so the most of out of these two will decide
whether we have a romp or a nail-biter on our hands.
Prediction
I don't think we'll see the all-singing, all-dancing win
that some sections of the media seem to expect against Italy.Against a side determined to slow the game
down and play with extreme physicality, and with conditions forcast to be wet,
I suspect that we will see a relatively tight game for 50 or so minutes.England though, do have their tails up and
have more than enough class to see off any potential upsets – although they
will be scrutinised more than ever this weekend.England
by 19.
Two years ago, I had just started writing this blog having
become fed up with sitting about watching my old side play, having ruled myself
out for a year with torn knee ligaments.The 2013 Six Nations was mostly a joy to write about as an Englishman,
until the Welsh selfishly decided to ruin it for me in Cardiff on the final
weekend.The nerve.Back on that day in 2013, all sheep jokes
were firmly directed at England as they were timidly sent to the slaughter by a
ravenous Wales side which looked like they were on the cusp of dominating
northern hemisphere rugby up until the next World Cup.They were physically superior, more
aggressive and more accurate.England
wilted under the sheer ferocity of the Welsh physicality and the vocal
er...’enthusiasm’ of their vociferous fans.Since then, England managed to get the one up on their old rivals at
Twickenham but, with an injury list as long as the M4, the memory freshest in
the mind was the 30 – 3 drubbing at the Millennium Stadium.History, according to some, was set to repeat
itself.
The hosts certainly went the extra mile to pile the pressure
on their visitors, with a build up that was almost as intense as the game
itself.First, Warren Gatland named his
side a week early, hammering home the fact that he had a first choice side that
picked itself available, whilst his opposite number, Stuart Lancaster, was
being forced to blood new talent and combinations given the plethora of crocked
key players.Gatland then ‘dared’
England to agree to having the stadium roof closed (a request that was denied),
Shaun Edwards chipped in with a claim that England, more than other sides,
cheat by using ‘blockers’, and the event organisers even ensured that the big
screen above the spot where the England players were warming up was showing
extended (and painful) highlights of their demise on their last visit.To cap it all off, the plan was to have
England emerge into the cold Friday night and sit through 5 minutes of a light
show in what had become Cardiff’s largest disco before the hosts emerged.Captain Chris Robshaw, wisely, held his
ground until the last possible moment.Two things occurred to me whilst all this was happening – firstly, if it
had been the English pulling off all these stunts, the claims of arrogance
would (quite rightly) echo deafeningly in the mouths of the fans and the
scribes of the media and, secondly, the Welsh management would look like plums
if this all backfired.Even if, at this
point, nobody expected it to.
And nothing changed that prediction as Wales started the
game where they had left off two years ago, in rampant control.After winning the ball back from Dan Biggar’s
well-weighted kick off, Johnny May gave away a silly penalty in the tackle area
after just 1 minute to give Leigh Halfpenny a long-range crack at goal.Halfpenny, of course, nailed it – a timely
reminder of his phenomenal ability with the boot.England then tried their turn at attacking
but, although there were a couple of promising moments, they were turned over
when Luther Burrell was isolated in the tackle.A clever kick by Halfpenny later and a knock on 5 metres out by George
Kruis, and the hosts had their first scrum.At first the danger for England seem to have been averted as the front
row marched forwards, but Toby Faletau brilliantly (and arguably illegally)
pulled the ball out of the tunnel, palmed off James Haskell, drew in two
defenders and offloaded superbly for the looping Rhys Webb who ran over for the
opening score.Barely 8 minutes played
and (after the inevitable two points from Halfpenny) Wales were 10 – 0 up.It all looked unnervingly familiar.
But something was different this time – instead of upping
the tempo to frantic levels, throwing hail mary passes and generally
impersonating headless chickens, the visitors went on to continue their
gameplan of attacking the fringes of the Welsh defence, and with real accuracy
and intensity.They also had the upper
hand in the scrum and – after Dan Cole had marmalised Gethin Jenkins on one
engagement (a regular occurance), England set up camp in the hosts’ 22.A half-break by Ben Youngs got the visitors
going forward, before slick hands and a deft grubber from Mike Brown gave
Anthony Watson the chance to pick up and dive over superbly for his first test
try.George Ford hit the sticks with a
difficult conversion, but it was definitely game on.
England were starting to look the more dangerous side
without making any clear inroads, but flashes of fine footwork from the Bath
trio of Ford, Jonathan Joseph and Watson were giving Lancaster and co plenty of
encouragement, and the power game of James Haskell was also beginning to have
an effect with the ball in hand.But
silly mistakes were costing them – such as Hartley getting himself isolated and
turned over by the quick-thinking Dan Lydiate, and then Cole was penalised for
going off his feet in a ruck when there did not seem to be any real
danger.Halfpenny completed the
formalities with another 3 points, but Ford then responded in kind when Jamie
Roberts was penalised for an early tackle on May following another snipe by
Youngs.
Although the Welsh backs were still not clicking, the likes
of Sam Warburton and Faletau were still carrying with athleticism and power and
making some yards, and occasionally causing England problems.Another soft penalty from Cole saw Halfpenny
line up what we all thought was a gimme, but he inexplicably shanked his
effort, but it proved not to matter as Dan Biggar rounded the half off with a
sweetly struck drop goal, giving the hosts a 16 – 8 lead at the break.But, despite the comfortable margin of the
lead, there remained the feeling that England were somehow the ones in control
of the match, and they had been since the opening 10 minutes.
That became increasingly apparent after the break, as the
England pack began to exert complete dominance on their opponents.Once again, Youngs was the catalyst, making
another half break as he sniped his way between Samson Lee and Richard Hibbard
– a bit of go forward ball was all that was needed.Several telling carries later from the likes
of the industrious Chris Robshaw and Haskell, and England were perched on the
Welsh line.Ford almost went through
after picking a smart line off Youngs but, after the ball came back quickly,
Jonathan Joseph stood up his man Dan Biggar with some electric footwork and
wriggled out of a pair of poor tackles from George North and Dan Biggar to dive
over for a try.Ford added the extras,
and England were now within a point.
You could almost physically feel the momentum shift in the
game – suddenly the Welsh lineout, solid in the first half, began to crumble
and the kicking game, in particular from Rhys Webb, fell to pieces, allowing
Mike Brown to counter attack with real verve and to great effect in his best
display since last year’s Six Nations.It led to Ford missing a long range shot to put England in the lead but,
in truth, it felt like it would be sooner rather than later that he would get
another shot at goal.The hosts were
simply unable to generate anything of note themselves, with Robshaw protecting
Ford from the physicality of Roberts and Jonathan Davies and Cole effecting one
key turnover as the Welsh made a rare foray to enemy territory.
The one-way traffic soon told.After a driving maul had made metres and
Luther Burrell had offloaded smartly, Youngs once again scampered off the side
of the ruck and found James Haskell, who stormed through the gap and looked for
all the money like he would score, until a combination of fantastic work from
Alex Cuthbert and the padded rugby post got in his way.It had been a great piece of defensive work
by the winger, but he also (perhaps necessarily) deliberately slowed the ball
down and was shown a yellow card for his troubles.Ford added the extras for 3 and the lead for
the first time – but it should have been 5 or 7.
Wales, to their credit, managed to stem the flow of
penalties and points whilst Cuthbert was off the field, with some sloppy
handling by both sides beginning to creep into the game, but England should
have been home and hosed on the 70 minute mark when Luther Burrell picked up a
loose ball and strode through a gap, only to throw a shocker of a pass to Brown
when, in all likelihood, he (or his support runner) would have scored.With England’s bench adding some serious go
forward in contact – particularly the front row – more opportunities were
presenting themselves, and they thought they had taken one when Dave Attwood
dived over following a big rumble by Keiran Brookes.Jerome Garces though, ruled that there had
been crossing earlier on in the move (as Edwards had foretold) and, once again,
Wales emerged unscathed. It was a marginal call - although Biggar appeared to have decided to hit Easter (the blocker) in any event, the veteran Harlequin was in front of the carrier.
They were now, however, chasing the game and began to run
from deep, desperate to get into the English half where the boot of Halfpenny
could do so much damage.But the defence
was solid, organised and aggressive, with Robshaw, Haskell and George Kruis in
the thick of everything, and when Billy Twelvetrees forced a turnover penalty
within minutes of taking the field, George Ford slammed over the 3 points from
distance and under intense pressure to make the game safe.
Wales tried to run the ball out from deep but, as they had
been for 70 minutes of the game, found themselves hitting a brick wall and, when
Nick Easter (re-emerging from the international wilderness at 36) held up
Davies in the tackle, it was game over.England had waded through the mind games and produced a win of 21 – 16,
and a performance to which the score did not do justice.
For Wales, it was a confusing day at the office.Too much poor kicking, not enough power
runners down Ford’s channel, they seemed unable to cope when their two-out
runners were being hammered behind the gainline, the aggressive defence ruining
the foundations of ‘Warren-ball’.It
would be easy to over-react – but this is still a world class Welsh side
stuffed full of unbelievably talented players; they have the ability to play in
ways to get around aggressive defences like England’s, but they need the
gameplan to execute it.Better find that
out now though, than in the middle of a World Cup.
Speaking of which, is this the first blow with these two
sides meeting in the World Cup September this year?Perhaps.Wales won’t allow the
same mistakes to plague them again, but England have shown they have the depth,
intelligence and ability to defeat a top side in their own backyard.Ford and Youngs clicked superbly, with
Haskell and Vunipola working well off their shoulders right on the gainline,
Jonathan Joseph demonstrated his raw ability and England’s pack is simply up
there with the best in the world when it comes to bruising the life out of the
opposition.
The 2015 World Cup might be a little way away yet, but
Friday night proved one thing – that Cardiff night in 2013 is much, much
further.
WALES PLAYER RATINGS
15.Leigh Halfpenny: 8.Wales’ best back by some distance.As reliable as ever under the high ball and
counter-attacked with real conviction and purpose throughout, even in a turgid
second half for his side.He’ll regret
that one sitter of a missed kick, though.
14.Alex Cuthbert:5.Cuthbert
was largely a spectator for the majority of the game and was brought into
play/got himself involved far too rarely.A superb try-saving tackle on James Haskell was then annulled by the
subsequent yellow card for slowing the ball down.
13.Jonathan Davies:5.Davies
was quiet throughout and looked as rusty as you would expect for a man who is
struggling for first team action in France.A smart tackle on Joseph in the first half aside, he had very little
impact on the rest of the game.
12.Jamie Roberts:5.Much
was made of Roberts’ performance against Burrell at club level a couple of
weeks ago – and rightly so, he was superb.But it took 50 minutes for the big man to be launched down Ford’s
channel, to decent effect too.How much
of this was Roberts’ fault, I don’t know, but we do know he was far too quiet
for ‘Warren-ball’ to work.
11.George North:4.A couple of promising
touches early on faded from memory following his first concussion, a result of
a stray boot from Dave Attwood.From
then on his contribution was minimal aside from missing a howler of a tackle on
Jonathan Joseph for England’s try and suffering another concussion courtesy of
Richard Hibbard’s rather solid bonce.Staggering that he was left on.
10.Dan Biggar:
7.Made good decisions and
executed well when he had the ball, and soldiered on despite an ill-advised
nose-first inspection of Gethin Jenkins’ skull.But his influence faded from the game as his pack imploded and he
couldn’t spark his backline to life.
9.Rhys Webb:6.Started so well with a
smart support line for the try and threatened the fringes, but his kicking game
collapsed as the match wore on and all that did was heap more pressure on his
side.
1.Gethin Jenkins:4.When
he wasn’t headbutting his own fly-half, the Lions loosehead was getting
marmalised in the scrum.Busy about the
park, but his bread-and-butter should be the set piece and he struggled throughout,
denying his side a platform.
2.Richard Hibbard:5.Another
in the front row to have problems in the set piece, with the lineout wobbling
in the second half at a crucial time.But his contribution in the loose was impressive, weighing in with some
aggressive carries and big hits.
3.Samson Lee:5.His side of the scrum
was relatively even but he struggled to have a tangible impact elsewhere on the
field.A big learning experience for the
talented tighthead with a big future ahead of him.
4.Jake Ball:5.Toiled all evening but
not always to great effect as he was turned over twice, but in defence he did
chip in with some big hits.
5.Alun Wyn-Jones:5.It
may seem like a fairly harsh rating for a player who didn’t make any obvious
mistakes, but a man of Jones’ calibre and experience would be expected to lead
his side out of the trough they found themselves in early in the second
period.Instead, he faded.
6.Dan Lydiate:5.As industrious as you
would want and expect in defence, of course, but there has to be a time when we
ask “what else does he do”?Three
carries for one metre is simply not good enough for a loose forward and 2
penalties he gave away were costly.
7.Sam Warburton: 6.A
brave display but he was clearly outshone by his opposite number.Carried with athleticism and tackled
aggressively all night, but he was unable to have an influence at the breakdown
and found himself going backwards more often than not.
8.Taulupe Faletau:7.Another
to have a solid game, he was one of the few Welsh players who could have
claimed to have matched their opposite number.Great dexterity, strength and awareness to set up the first try but –
like many of his colleagues – was significantly less conspicuous in the second
40.
Replacements:5.We
can of course question how and when they were used, but those that came on were
unable to have any positive effect on the Welsh game or spark a revival.
ENGLAND PLAYER
RATINGS
15.Mike Brown:8.A return to the form from
last year’s Six Nations, as he rediscovered that knack of beating the first man
with seemingly every counter-attack.A
delightfully-weighted grubber for Watson’s try and an inch-perfect touch finder
late on showed how much his game has grown.
14.Anthony Watson:7.Had
some lovely touches in the first half where he showed great ability in the air,
fabulous footwork and good composure to finish for his first test try.Less involved in the second half, but more
promise from the Bath man.
13.Jonathan Joseph:7.Some
players struggle to replicate club form on the international circuit – but not
Joseph.He wasn’t involved in the game a
huge amount but everything he did was top drawer –picking dangerous running
lines, tackling well and, of course, wriggling free for a very well-taken
score.
12.Luther Burrell:6.A
bit of a mixed bag for the Saints centre.He gave some lovely offloads in the second half but also lost the ball
twice in contact, which was disappointing for a man of his stature.Also gave a howler of a pass after a fine
break when Mike Brown might have been in.
11.Johnny May:6.A solid, if unspectacular,
showing from May, but in many ways this was a performance which answered a lot
of critics.After conceding a silly
penalty early on, May didn’t make a mistake – collecting the high ball well and
counter-attacking with purpose instead of floating around laterally.Couldn’t get the space to show off his speed,
though.
10.George Ford:7.Huge credit has to be
given for his ability to bounce back from missing what looked to be a crucial
kick in the second period.He was not
flawless – a couple of charge downs could have been costly – but his game
management and execution was top drawer (as was his nerve for that final kick)
and, crucially, he seems to have a natural understanding with Ben Youngs.
9.Ben Youngs:
9.It was only on second
viewing that I realised in the first half what a fine game the Leicester man
had – probably his best since 2010.His
work around the breakdown and caused no-end of problems for the Welsh defence
throughout the game and he picked his runners superbly.Sharp service and smart management throughout
– man of the match.
1.Joe Marler:6.A solid performance in
the scrum and worked hard around the loose, too, showing good eagerness to get
his mitts on the ball.
2.Dylan Hartley:5.Probably
England’s most disappointing performer.The lineout creaked a couple of times and more than once he foolishly
got himself isolated and turned over.Still a force of nature when it comes to hitting rucks, however, and –
notably – he wasn’t yellow carded.
3.Dan Cole:7.Considering that he hadn’t
played for a month, this was a fine display.He had Jenkins on toast in the scrum, earning a couple of penalties –
although he did give a couple away with lazy work at the breakdown, one of
which was slotted by Halfpenny.But his
work around the rucks was once again exemplary, with one turnover in the second
half, when Wales were building ominously, particularly key.
4.Dave Attwood:7.Attwood seemed to relish
the role as the experienced half of the second row combination and went about
his work with a brutal efficiency.He
was unlucky to be denied a first test try and threw himself about at the breakdown.
5.George Kruis:7.I had my doubts but he
proved me wrong – Kruis looked right at home in the most pressurised of
environments and recovered well from a costly early fumble.A good option in the lineout and his
athleticism was a real bonus for England.
6.James Haskell:8.He
made just two mistakes all game – unfortunately, they were rather
glaring...missing a simple tackle to concede a try and then running into a post
instead of scoring.But aside from that,
he was superb.Relentlessly physical on
the carry, he added a real dynamism to the visitors’ game.
7.Chris Robshaw:8.26
Tackles, 0 missed.That was the
remarkable statistic to emerge from Robshaw’s performance on Friday night in
yet another display that might not have produced the spectacular, but certainly
produced a result.Led from the front
and his refusal to go out and wait in the cold at the beginning of the match
was not only great theatre, it was the right thing to do.
8.Billy Vunipola:7.He
was well-shackled in the first half with chop tackles but his influence grew as
the game went on, making big metres in the heart of the Welsh defence.The good news was that he didn’t seemed to
lose energy as the match progressed, a nod to the hard work he has done with
the conditioning staff at Saracens.
Replacements:7.Everyone
who came on contributed well to the cause, especially Tom Youngs – who made 9
tackles in 24 minutes – and Billy Twelvetrees, who threw his weight around in
the last 5 minutes and won that key penalty late in the game.Great to see Nick Easter back, too.
Wales v England - a wonderful opportunity for players on both sides to clean their studs.
Talk about starting with a bang. The Six Nations is stuffed full to bursting with classic fixtures, but there's no doubting that some carry just that little bit more weight than the others - and Wales v England, in Cardiff, is the fattest of the lot. The passion that borders on hatred, the history, the humiliations, the classics - both nations have felt the sheer volume of expectation that sits on this match. As such, you might expect it to be one of the grand finale of the tournament - instead, we're plunging straight into the deep end with a Friday night fixture in front of a hostile crowd in one of the world's best stadiums...and with both sides meeting the World Cup group stage in just 7 months time, it really is sink or swim.
The build up has involved the traditional over-dramatization from the press and lots of familiar stories - debates over the roof will be open or closed (England have had their request that the roof is open granted), questions over the temperaments of various players in such an intense atmosphere (step forward Mr Hartley) and the usual pre-match goading from Warren Gatland. This year, in addition to 'daring' England to play them with the roof closed, the kiwi also named his team first thing on Monday, two days ahead of schedule, as if to say, "That's my team, deal with it" before putting his feet up and lighting a cigar.
But Mr Gatland has every reason to be the more content of the head coaches going into this game. Aside from Ken Owens, who is arguably second choice anyway, Wales have been blessed with an almost completely clean bill of health and Gatland's job of selecting a side has been made that much easier as the team almost picks itself. It is a side crammed with world-class talent and experienced combinations - Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies are the new D'Arcy and O'Driscoll, and that back row unit is probably the most settled in the northern hemisphere...and arguably the best. Familiarity breeds confidence, and there are plenty of reasons for the Welsh to be confident - in their last game they finally broke their southern hemisphere duck with a fine win against South Africa and, although the Welsh regions have not impressed in Europe, individual star players have, with Jamie Roberts and George North looking particularly dangerous.
And the third reason to be confident is the fact that their opponents, England, are in the middle of a bit of an injury crisis, with no fewer than 9 front line players down and out. It's decimated the second row - previously one England's strongest weapons to a pairing of the 4th and 6th choice players, forced a tighthead back to start after 4 weeks out injured, caused the recall of a maverick and a near-retiree after years of international wilderness and enforced yet another untested centre combination to fill the 12 and 13 shirts. And yet, there can be no excuses. In all honesty, the backline is what many would classify as England's most exciting and in-form selection at the moment, with only Manu Tuilagi for Luther Burrell a widely agreed substitution, if the Leicester man was fit. The front row is vastly experienced and the back row looks extremely well balanced - it is only at lock where the visitors look a bit light. But do not get fooled by the press into thinking that this is a second string side, with a foregone conclusion; this is a talented England side with a lot to play for...and they won't mind being written off.
Because, although it is sink or swim for some of the new faces, every now and again a hero is forged in the fires of the Millennium Stadium - and they don't necessarily have to be wearing red.
Wales Team News
Wales winger George North returns to the starting XV for
the Six Nations opener against England. Richard Hibbard is back at hooker in the only other change to the side that
beat South Africa in November.
Dan Biggar. In a game where the blood is going to be up and intensity through the (imaginary) roof, it is so important for Wales to keep their cool. They have a first choice side out and will fancy their chances at the breakdown and in the contact area, and so should get the ball required to make chances - but it might not happen all at once against a fired up English side. Biggar has distinguished himself so far by appearing unflappable under pressure and he must continue that on Friday night - that means playing intelligently and kicking for territory when necessary, and not feeling like he has force an attack every time he is given the ball. If he plays clinically, Wales will win.
England Team News
England coach Stuart Lancaster, who has battled a lengthy injury list in his
squad, has selected Luther Burrell and Jonathan Joseph to play as centres. Prop Dan Cole returns after nearly a year out, while Danny Cipriani, Tom Croft and Nick
Easter are recalled to the bench.
Dan Cole. The Leicester tighthead was looking very impressive on his return from 10 months out with a neck injury, but then a niggling foot problem has kept him out for the last month. No doubt Lancaster - and Cole for that matter - would have preferred to have eased his way back into things, but such is life that he now starts on the coalface for his country. But Cole is an exceptional scrummager and he will be fresh - he may be targeted, but he has the capacity to handle it. And he will know, better than anyone, that if he can get the upper hand on Gethin Jenkins and get the Welsh set piece going backwards, not only will it give his side a massive platform but it will also quieten down the Welsh fans, which is just as important.
Key Battle
Jamie Roberts v Luther Burrell. With the Welsh gameplan relying heavily on Roberts crashing over the gainline, it goes without saying that Burrell is a crucial figure in the English defence. Unfortunately, for the visitors, these two met a fortnight ago whereupon Burrell gave his best impression of a turnstile as Roberts smashed through Northampton's defence time and time again, picking up a man of the match award for his club, Racing Metro. The good doctor may look like Desperate Dan but there is nothing funny about his ability to raise his game for the crunch contests - he will be a handful on Friday night and Burrell simply has to stop him at source, or it will be a long night for his side. If he presses and hits aggressively, however, the Welsh momentum can be stopped at source - and as we saw in last year's contest, the men in red don't always have a Plan B when Plan A fails...
Prediction
It doesn't get much bigger than this. Wade through all the pre-match posturing, arguments over a roof, suggestions of fear of a particular ground, and you still boil down to what is - in my view - the most intensely contested international match in rugby. Wales may be favourites - and rightly so - but they know not to underestimate England. They face a side that has plenty to prove and no shortage of talent, speed and power - it is a side that the press have thrown onto the ropes but Gatland's men will know that they could still pack one hell of a punch. Also, don't forget the bench - perhaps the one area where in my view England have a clear upper hand. The front row replacements of Vunipola, Youngs and Brookes are probably three of the most aggressive carriers around and Croft, Easter and Cipriani can all bring something different and dangerous to a tiring defence. That being said, this Welsh side just has so much experience and quality throughout it, it is hard to see them failing to pick up a win against their bitterest of rivals - especially when roared on by a mildly enthusiastic crowd. Wales by 6.
It’s a wonderful time of year.You’re still feeling depressed about the fact
it’s dark for 18 hours a day, you feel like Santa Clause lent you half of his
belly over the festive period, and there is no real holiday to look forward to
for another 2 months.It could almost
get you down – if it wasn’t for the fact that the great annual p*ss up, sorry,
rugby competition, is back in town.Welcome back, the Six Nations.
A lack of knowledge doesn’t stop fat blokes who once picked
up a rugby ball weighing in with their predictions in the pub, so it certainly
won’t stop me from...hang on...
Ireland
Head Coach:Joe Schmidt.The Kiwi worked miracles at Leinster, and now
he’s working his magic on the men in green.He took over a side in 2013 that was lacking in confidence and cohesion
and turned them into Six Nations winners and southern-hemisphere giant
killers.He’ll need to reach deep into
his pocket for an extra handful of magic dust this year, though, as his side
has racked up a nasty injury list which threatens to destabilise the strong
platforms he has built over the last 18 months. Captain:Paul O’Connell.Despite looking like he’s walked straight off
the set of Middle Earth (the bad side, too), the Munster legend is admired and
feared in equal measure by fans and players of rival nations.His side, Munster, may not have had the
easiest time of it this year but his international pedigree is second to none
and his nous will be required in bringing together an side lacking several key
players in crucial positions.Plus,
there are rumours this will be his last Six Nations tournament...expect him to
want to go out with a bang. Last year:1st.Brian O’Driscoll was seen off in style as his
side defeated France in Paris to narrowly claim the Six Nations Championship
ahead of England on points difference, despite losing to the men in white at
Twickenham in one of the most intense games in recent memory.The title, though, was richly deserved as
Ireland fielded a wonderfully varied game to great effect, and few could
begrudge seeing the legendary O’Driscoll walk away with one last championship
to his name. Key Player:Ian Madigan.The Leinster man is likely to be at the
centre of attention for a number of reasons – firstly, the injury crisis in the
centres means that Madigan is likely to see some game time in the 12 shirt, as
he has done for Leinster, although the return of the impressive Robbie Henshaw
this week will have been a welcome one for Ireland fans.However, it’s in the 10 shirt where Madigan
must really perform; with Paddy Jackson ruled out for the tournament and Johnny
Sexton – at the very least – severely lacking in match fitness, Madigan will
have to show more reliability with the boot than he did against Wasps last
Saturday, whilst retaining the instinctive running threat he possesses.
Watch out for:Robbie Henshaw.It’s fair to say that there’s been a fair
amount of panic on the Emerald Isle over who is going to take over the midfield
with the legendary BOD settling down and his long-time partner Gordon D’Arcy
getting long in the tooth and suffering from various niggles.But Henshaw looks like the real deal – at just
21 years of age he is young to be playing provincial rugby, let alone
internationals.With a naturally tall,
lean frame, Henshaw doesn’t strike you as a typical power centre but he runs
with intelligence and aggression, blessed with a crafty sleight of hand as well
that fans in green will appreciate.This
is his first shot on the real big stage – it will be fascinating to see how the
Connaught man handles it. Prediction:2nd.Schmidt is building a very capable side and,
for me, they are dark horses for the World Cup – they showed in their defeat of
South Africa that they can take anyone on.However, the real questions are going to be on how they cope with the
injuries in key positions, and life without BOD, as well as the usual concerns
over scrummaging, especially when they face the English.The millennium stadium may prove to be a
bridge too far for them this year, but they will certainly be there or
thereabouts once again.
England
Head Coach:Stuart Lancaster.Lancaster strikes me as a thoroughly nice
bloke but, for all his revolutionary thinking in terms of bringing back pride
in the England shirt, he is fairly averse to taking risks – especially in terms
of selection.Now is the time to throw
caution to the wind, however.After a
great Six Nations last year, when they were arguably the most impressive side
despite not winning it, they had a difficult summer in New Zealand followed by
a disappointing Autumn Campaign – although there are plenty of injuries
mounting in the England squad, the pressure is certainly on the England coach
in a World Cup year. Captain:Chris Robshaw.The perennially excellent Robshaw must be fed
up with the perennial questioning on whether or not he is indeed a ‘true
openside’, despite the fact his stats often exceed his peers’.However, with Tom Wood (a man who contributes
to a lot of the ‘dirty work’) out for at least the early part of the
tournament, the scrutiny will be on Robshaw more than ever to lead from the
front and influence the breakdown. Last year:2nd.It was an odd result for England because they
actually looked, for the majority of the tournament, like the best side on
show.A nightmare start against the
French aside, Stuart Lancaster’s men were physically dominant and ruled the
roost with the set piece and at the breakdown, and the backs – mainly via Mike
Brown – finally showed some cutting edge.They were, however, pipped by Ireland to the title on points difference
(and not many Englishmen could begrudge Brian O’Driscoll one last piece of
silverware) but they did win the Triple Crown for the first time in over a
decade with a memorable nilling of Scotland at Murrayfield, a comfortable
defeat of Wales at Twickenham and a brutally physical win over the Emerald Isle
at HQ.Encouraging signs. Key Player:Billy Vunipola.With the injury to Ben Morgan, the gargantuan
Saracens eight has some rather large shoes to fill – but his recent club form
has been encouraging.England are shorn
of so many established players, but one thing that makes it easier for any side
to click is front foot ball.England
simply have to get over the gainline – if untried combinations are pressured by
defences, then that is when they are exploited.Vunipola is at the heart of England’s carrying game and, if he can
generate that momentum, then it makes it so much easier for the new men outside
him to gel. Watch out for:Jonathan Joseph.In 2012 the then-London Irish centre was the
next big thing, but a combination of injury and loss of form has seen the Bath
man slip down the pecking order.This
season though (and, to be fair, the second half of last), Joseph has been
utterly sublime.He still has a lethal
outside break but he now combines it with intelligent and aggressive defensive
play and a smart kicking game.There is
every chance that a good tournament for Joseph could seal that 13 shirt – he just
needs the space to show what he can do.
Prediction: 3rd. I don’t know how many black
cats Lancaster has run over but the injury crisis (and yes it is a crisis) that
has afflicted his squad is one of the worst in memory.Shorn of no less than 9 players who would
expect to be in and around the squad, the England coach has lost many of the
more established players within his side who should have been leaders going
into the World Cup, especially in the centres and in the second row.But there is still talent and power
available, and at Twickenham it is difficult to see them being turned over –
inexperience, however, doesn’t often go forgiven in Cardiff or in Dublin.
Wales
Head Coach:Warren Gatland.The surly Kiwi seems to have a permanently
smug expression on his face, and why not?He has overseen two Grand Slams since 2008 and another Six Nations
Championship, a successful World Cup run and a victorious Lions tour.I'd be smug, too.His tactics of "Gatland-ball" has
its critics but, although you may be able to predict what's going to happen,
stopping it is a different question entirely.He knows the strength of the weapons in his armoury and he uses them to
great effect.
Captain:Sam Warburton.When not making the news about being signed
up to a central contract, 'Warbs' is…well…not really in the news at all,
really.The flanker is part of a group
of Welsh players who churn in solid displays at regional level before upping it
to arguably-world-class standards in an international shirt.A dip of form in 2012-13 seems an age ago now
as Warburton continuously leads from the front with pace over the park and
aggression – and precision – at the breakdown.The Lions skipper is also a thoroughly nice chap, by all accounts, too.
Last Year:3rd.A
bit of a mixed bag for the men in red.After the ecstasy of winning the Six Nations Championship in 2013 with
one of the great Welsh displays at home against England, Gatland's men
stuttered through the 2014 competition, despite destroying the Scottish and
French at home.Away from the Millennium
Stadium, though, they struggled – comfortably outplayed in Ireland and England.A good job that they have those two at home
this year…
Key Player:Dan Biggar.After years of persisting with the likeable but flakey – and often
mojo-less – Rhys Priestland, Gatland finally seems to have settled on a player
who can act as the link man between an efficient pack and an explosive (not to
mention enormous) set of backs.Biggar
perhaps doesn't offer the off-the-cuff inspiration that Priestland does, but
that does not mean he is not creative – he is intelligent, calm, takes the
right decisions and executes them with precision.And for the man in the 10 shirt to be a
reliable performer, that's a breath of fresh air for many Welsh fans.
One to Watch:Samson Lee.It's hard to miss him, in fairness, since he looks like a ginger truck,
but the big Scarlets prop has come on in leaps and bounds in recent years.He has always had strength befitting his name
but now he has been able to harness that raw power and compliment it with
excellent scrummaging technique, making him an absolute rock in the set piece.If he can turn the screw on the South African
eight, he will fancy his chances against anyone – it will be interesting to see
how he goes in his first full Six Nations at the coal face.In fairness, though, any prop described by
the great Adam Jones as a 'gem' is always going to be pretty handy…
Prediction:1st (no Grand Slam).Somehow, Gatland's men seem to have avoided
any significant injury problems whatsoever, with the only 'scare' coming from a
stubbed toe (or something similar) to Jonathan Davies.With the quality of the front line players,
you cannot underestimate the value of having a clean bill of health and, with
Ireland and England at home, I can see them racking up so crucial wins.A trip to Paris against the French may be a
tricky task, but if they get a big win against England this Friday, then it's
hard to see the wheels coming off.
France
Head Coach:Phillipe Saint-Andre.Somehow.Saint-Andre strikes me as the David Brent of the coaching world,
navigating his way through international rugby with ill-advised pomposity which
masks borderline incompetence.How he
has remained in his job baffles me almost as much as some of his selection
howlers – persisting with flaky scrum-half Freddie Michelak at fly half, moving
his best centre (Wesley Fofana) out to the wing to name just two.But at least in the last 6 months he seems to
have his side playing at a faster pace and with a coherent game plan – perhaps
now is the time he starts to repay the faith the FRU have shown in him.
Captain:Thierry Dusautoir.The Toulouse man was conspicuous by his
absence last year as Les Bleus struggled to physically match opponents and his
return to the national side this year is a welcome one for French fans.He hasn't exactly been setting the world
alight for his club – but nobody has, to be fair – but the flanker is a
big-game player, bringing out superhuman performances when his side needs it
most.Watch out for him when his side's
backs are against the wall.
Last Year:4th.Predictably unpredictable.After
a fine opening win against England, despite being outplayed for large swathes,
Les Blues were horribly inconsistent – stuttering to wins against Italy and
Scotland, collapsing against Wales and falling to a gallant defeat against
champions Ireland.But it was once again
a very negative feeling that was left following the conclusion of the
tournament – Saint-Andre's constant tinkering with the starting line-up ruined
any chances of consistency, the team lacked any kind of Gallic flair and the
Stade de France crowd were growing increasingly disgruntled with the whole
situation.
Key Player: Camille Lopez.Uh-oh, the French may have just found themselves a gem here.At 25, you could almost say he's a late
bloomer but Lopez really came to prominence in 2013 when he orchestrated the unfancied
Bordeaux-Begles' 41 – 0 destruction of Toulon. Now at Clermont, the talented
fly half seems to have a quality that Les Bleus have been so sorely lacking in
that position for so long – reliability.Deadly accurate with the boot off the tee or from hand, Lopez is a smart
tactician and a smooth distributor and, despite having just 5 caps, he's been
tipped by the legendary Thomas Castaignede to solve the problems in that 10
jersey.No pressure then.
One to Watch:Teddy Thomas.Pace – lots of it – and power – plenty of that too.A handy mix for any winger, and deadly when
combined with Thomas' natural knack of wriggling out of tackles and staying on
his feet.A sublime hat-trick on debut
against Fiji last autumn announced his arrival on the international scene, but
this will be his real batptism – and the Racing man will be hoping to produce
more moments of magic like this:
Prediction:4th.An improvement in performances if not the end result.Trips to Dublin and Twickenham will prove too
tough a task for Les Bleus but I expect them to cause some damage at home this
year, including against a very strong looking Welsh outfit.Expect a promising tournament where it
finally looks as if the team is 'clicking'.
Scotland Head Coach:Vern Cotter.An egghead, in every sense of the word
(hard-boiled, of course).Yet another
Kiwi (the third in the tournament), he’s gone from coaching one of the best and
classiest club sides in Europe – Clermont Auvergne – to coaching one of the
most infuriatingly inconsistent.But the
signs have been promising – improved displays over the Autumn and the
uncovering of some serious talent has given the Murrayfield faithful some genuine
hope for the first time in a very long time. Captain:Greg Laidlaw.The Gloucester man has been handed the
arm-band with the eyebrow-raising omission of Kelly Brown, but Laidlaw has been
given the job on plenty of occasions.He
has always been a reliable source of points from the boot and can dish out some
neat service, but before this season his running threat has always been next to
negligible.This season, however, he has
shown some encouraging signs – particularly in the Autumn Internationals, where
he was instrumental in defeating Argentina.If Scotland are to up their attacking game, it has to start with him
showing that kind of creativity and awareness. Last year: 5th.Best not to mention 2014 to any Scottish people
you know – if the state of the worm-infested Murrayfield pitch wasn’t
embarrassing enough, the poor Scots then suffered the ignominy of being nilled
at home by the auld enemy and slaughtered mercilessly in Cardiff by the Welsh;
only a last gasp drop goal from an otherwise unimpressive Duncan Weir snatched
a late win over Italy in Rome and saved Scotland from collecting the wooden
spoon.An uninspiring end to Scott
Johnson’s reign. Key Player:Stuart Hogg.Arguably the only genuine world-class back on
show for Scotland, Hogg has been a key figure for Scotland for 3 years now,
despite being only 22.With blistering
acceleration and an eye for a gap, he is one of the most dangerous counter-attackers
in world rugby and, as one of the more experienced men in the Scottish side, he
will be charged with leading Vern Cotter’s attack, threatening the outside
channels and moving Scotland away from the one-dimensional rugby which has
plagued their side for so long.He’ll
also want to forget about his last Six Nations appearance, where he was
red-carded for an uncharacteristically thuggish shoulder charge on Rhys
Priestland. Watch out for:Alex Dunbar.Of course, Dunbar isn’t an entirely new name
to Six Nations fans – the big centre announced himself with a brace of superb
tries against Italy last year. But
Glasgow fans will waste no time in telling you that Dunbar has taken it to
another level for his club this year.Blessed with natural power and physicality in defence, the 6-foot-3 and
16-stone Scot also has an eye for a gap, good pace and the intelligence to pick
some gorgeous lines.He’s part of a new
breed of genuinely exciting talent that Cotter has at his disposal – and the
Kiwi will hope that this season will announce Dunbar as the Scottish equivalent
of Jamie Roberts.With a more
normal-sized chin. Prediction: 5th.The promise is there for Cotter’s men and,
like the French, I think we will see some improved displays from the men in
blue.But they have difficult away
fixtures this year in Paris and at Twickenham, although they will fancy their
chances at home against anyone – particularly the hapless Italians.They may well spring a surprise or two –
Cotter’s men will be eying the Wales and Ireland home fixtures with genuine
ambition – but I suspect that they will have to settle for the green shoots of
promise this season.And if that can be
echoed on the Murrayfield turf, that would be welcome too.
Italy
Head Coach:Jacques Brunel.The Frenchman is one of the most respected
figures in world rugby and, up until last year, it looked as if he had been
working wonders with the Italian side as well, who claimed Scottish, Irish and
French scalps at various points.But
2014 was something of an annus horribilis for Brunel as the Azzurri regressed
badly – winless in the Six nations, winless in the summer (where they were
defeated by power houses such as Fiji, Japan and Samoa) and won just one of
their Autumn matches, a narrow victory over a depleted Samoan side. Captain:Sergio Parisse.At many times it has been claimed that
Parisse is the world’s best number 8, but the truth is that we’ll never know
how good he is/could have been because he has often seemingly been fighting
battles by himself.What can’t be
disputed though, is that he is one of the true talismans in world rugby,
carrying hard, offloading and even kicking to great effect – he always plays
well but the question is, can his side follow suit? Last year:6th.A return to the bad old days for the
Italians, where they were used as whipping boys by the French, Irish and
English – a way of racking up points.They also went down to Wales in Cardiff but at least gave the men in red
a bit of a scare, with Michele Campagnaro emerging as a real talent behind the
scrum, but ultimately they were handed the wooden spoon again as they went down
in agonising fashion at home against Scotland. Key Player:Leonardo Ghiraldini.Another world-class operator in the Italian
front row, the ex-Treviso man impressed enough in recent seasons to catch the
eye of the Leicester Tigers, who know a thing or two about good Italian front
rowers.Ghiraldini is probably one of
the most underrated players in the game but, with 70 caps to his name, the
Italian coaching staff certainly know is value – unflappable in the set piece,
a bull with the ball in hand and a nuisance at the breakdown, the Leicester
hooker is one man who can genuinely cause problems for opposition packs. Watch out for:Kelly Haimona.Campagnaro, at just 21, is still a real
talent but there will be a lot of pressure of the New Zealand-born Haimona
(come on, you didn’t think he was Italian did you?).The youngster started in the 10 shirt for the
Azzurri in their only win of 2014 against Samoa and the signs are that he will
be handed the playmaker role again for the Six Nations – but he will not have
experienced pressure like the kind that this tournament throws up and the cold
truth is it could make him, or break him.If he holds his nerve, then the Italians may finally have found somebody
to fill the great Diego Dominguez’s boots. Prediction: 6th.I don’t want to patronise the Italians with
claims of ‘they’re always improving’ and that they’re ‘always a dangerous side’
when the fact is that they’re not, at the minute.They were simply very, very poor in 2014 and
the state of Italian club rugby at the moment has done very little to lead me
to believe that they will show much improvement.It’s a shame as there are some genuinely
talented individuals amongst them and they will always cause side’s problems at
home, but I cannot see them picking up a win this season either.
