Heineken Cup time once again – and, horribly, possibly for
the last time. I personally don't have
the foresight to think ahead to next season, so instead I'm just going to enjoy
what's on the plate right now. Join
RuckedOver in a fairly beefy preview of this year's Heiny-Champions-League-Cup…or
whatever it's called….
Pool 1
Leinster
The Irish giants have been such a dominant presence over
recent years in Europe's premier competition that it was surreal not to see
them in the knock out stages last year.
Perhaps that had something to do with that winning mentality leaving
them after so many years of finishing on top or the fact that their side is
aging, but they showed that tenacity to win the Pro 12 for the first time in
2008 at the end of the season. Their
form in the league has been patchy this season but, with respect, Pro 12 form
is rarely a solid barometer for European pedigree. One thing is for sure though – the men in
blue will have got their hunger for Heineken success back again.
One to watch: Ian Madigan.
With the loss of Jonny Sexton, the young fly half will be forced to live
up to his billing in the spotlight. With
a solid boot off the tee to complement speed and power on the carry, the
Irishman needs to show game management skills beyond his years if Leinster are
to challenge the very best.
Prediction: 2nd (Eliminated). They have enough class to push for top spot
but, in a tight group, points will be lower.
I think that second place won't be enough for the men in blue.
Ospreys
Poor Ospreys. Every
year, without fail, they seem to be in a group of death. Perhaps that is a reflection on the standard
of European rugby these days, or a stroke of bad luck, but it has meant that
this talented Ospreys squad have never been able to make the waves they should
in European rugby. An impressive start
to the season has the Welsh side sitting in 3rd place in the Pro 12, but being
grouped with such massive sides will make qualification a tough process for the
men in black. But with Adam Jones
anchoring the pack, Alun Wyn Jones leading the charge and Dan Biggar keeping
the scoreboard moving, they are capable of beating anyone on their day – but do
they have enough class elsewhere to do it consistently?
One to watch: Eli Walker.
See his run against Leicester last year at the Liberty Stadium for why
this guy is pure dynamite. He was a dark
horse for a Lions spot, his form was so electric last year, and he will be
hoping to get the ball in space once again to show what he can do.
Prediction: 3rd.
The Welsh side will always be a real challenge at home and has the
potential to do well, but they've always looked fragile away from the Liberty
stadium in recent years and that will be their downfall.
Castres
Perhaps they, beyond all others, sum up the typically
frustrating French club in Europe. In a
similar way to Bourgoin several years ago, the talented outfit are a real force
domestically (Top 14 Champions) – despite lacking the resources and big names
of others – but seem to waft through European competition with a nonchalant
shrug of the shoulders, as if they'd rather be eating croissant and drinking
coffee (or whatever it is French people do) or, perhaps more realistically,
focusing on the league. Their form in the
Top 14 this year has been a little rocky – they sit in 9th place – although
they are only 7 points off top spot.
One to watch: Richie Gray.
One of their few big superstars, Gray came good in the Lions tour after
a poor season at Sale last year. In a
side that is known for its graft and intelligent play, Gray has a key role to
play as a lineout king and an enforcer at the breakdown.
Prediction: 4th.
Another side who could seriously come up trumps with the talent at their
disposal, but I'm just not sure they have the desire for it. They may well play
the role of kingmaker, but they won't be kings.
Northampton Saints
Off to a strong start in the Premiership, it looks as if
Saints have taken that next step from being perennial runners-up – they now
have the ammunition to go big time. The
power of their pack is still a key weapon but the form of Luther Burrell, Ben
Foden and the introduction of George North has added serious firepower. Their one weak spot now seems to be their
scrum, where they lack an international class tighthead, but the talent across
the park in other departments is unbelievable.
Tom Wood has made it clear that they have genuine European ambitions
this year – but we didn't need telling that.
One to watch: George North.
At his size, it's hard not to watch him, but his physical talent makes
him pure box-office. He's been yet to
get fully into his stride at Northampton and still needs to adapt to their
systems, but he's shown enough moments of inspiration to prove that he's the
big time player they need.
Prediction: 1st (Quarter Finals). I think that, in a tight group, the points
secured by the top team will be lower than others, meaning Saints may well face
a challenging away trip in the Quarters.
Pool 2
Exeter Chiefs
Their first season in Europe may not have ended with drastic
success, but they still put in some displays the earned the respect of the rest
of rugby fraternity – most notably against Leinster away, where they were
within a whisker of pulling off one of the shock results in the tournament’s
history. The Chiefs have started the
season domestically with no major signings and a bit of iffy form, although with
a pack as powerful as theirs and a fly half as monotonously accurate as Gareth
Steenson, you can bet they will prove to be frustrating opponents for anyone.
One to watch: Dean Mumm. The ex-Wallaby has been given the captaincy
this season and has proved his worth with a series of powerful displays, and
showing in unnervingly good eye for the tryline for a lock. His ability to front up is what the Chiefs
are all about so expect him to lead from the front.
Prediction: 3rd. With Toulon in the group, they’ll most likely
be scrapping for second place. They’ll
certainly be a handful at Sandy Park but it’s hard to see them causing too much
damage away from home.
Toulon
Money doesn’t buy happiness – but it does win you Heineken
Cups, as Toulon proved last year.
Perhaps that’s a bit unfair though.
They may have a squad that reads like the dream team I set up on EA
Sports Rugby 2008 on the Playstation 2 but they have a genuine commitment to
each other and a strong team spirit. The
reigning champions will be keen to follow up last year’s success with a win,
especially since they were thwarted in their attempts to claim a historic
double in the final of the Top 14 playoffs, surprisingly losing to Castres.
One to watch: Bryan Habana. When he eventually joins up with the French
giants it will be bad news for the rest of Europe. The veteran winger was in sparkling form for
the Springboks in the Rugby Championship and his pace and intelligent running
will be a major weapon in the Toulon armoury.
Prediction: 1st (semi-finals). The reigning champions are a class act, no
doubt, but they still don’t strike me as being a vintage side, sometimes
playing too slowly to pose an attacking threat.
They’ll be there or there abouts again this year, but I don’t think
they’ll be retaining their title.
Cardiff Blues
Welsh rugby might be in a difficult place at the moment but
you can’t help but admire some of the talent the clubs have at their
disposal. Despite looking unimpressive
in the league so far this year, the Blues can still call upon the likes of
Gethin Jenkins, Sam Warburton and Lions hero Leigh Halfpenny to drive them
onwards. Their problem? Like so many of their fellow Welsh clubs, the
exodus of top players has left plenty of quality gaps throughout the side.
One to watch: Alex Cuthbert. I’ve always thought of Cuthbert as being a
bit of a headless chicken on the rugby pitch, but he has started the season in
good form and with bags of pace and power, his involvement will be key to
Cardiff’s chances.
Prediction: 4th. It’s hard to see the Blues managing to upset
the reigning European Champions, and the other two sides will certainly fancy
their chances at home against the Welsh outfit.
They’ll be competitive, but they won’t be around for long.
Glasgow Warriors
Usually bit-part players who represent all that’s wrong with
the European qualification system, the Warriors have been the surprise package
in the Pro 12 so far this year, winning all 5 of their opening games. They’re not scoring a whole lot of tries but
they seem to have it all figured out defensively, conceding an average of just
10.2 points game. With guys like Sean
Maitland and Chris Cusiter lurking in the backline though, you know it’s a
matter of when – not if – they click, and with a big pack led by Ali Kellock,
Ryan Grant and Richie Vernon, you know they’ll be causing sides a lot of
problems.
One to watch: Duncan Weir. The young Scottish playmaker may look like a
garden gnome but he impressed in his debut international season last year and
he’s been looking both measured and threatening so far this year. He needs to kick on to avoid second-season
syndrome, and if he does it will be a huge asset to club and country.
Prediction: 2nd (eliminated). I like the look of this Glasgow side and, if
everyone stays fit, they should turn some heads. I can’t see them progressing beyond the last
8 but making the knockout stages is potentially with reach would represent a
step in the right direction for the Scottish side.
Pool 3
Toulouse
The French giants may not be the all-conquering juggernauts
they have been in previous years, but any side that holds the records for the
largest cabinet of European trophies is a force that must be reckoned
with. They still possess bags of class
and young talent in their ranks – Maxime Medard, Gael Fickou and Yannick Nyanga
to name but 3 – but there is a general feeling that the side overall is aging
and struggles to cope with teams that play at a consistently physical and high
tempo. They're looking strong in the Top
14 though this year although, like all the French clubs, they seem to be having
real problems winning away from home.
One to watch: Hosea Gear. The prodigiously talented winger is over for
a stint after co-captaining the Highlanders and in my opinion it’s the right
move for him – he's never received the international recognition his speed,
power and skill deserves. He's a force
of nature and will be desperate to showcase this on the European stage.
Prediction: 2nd (Quarter finals). The French side have been blessed with a
relatively easy group and it should be close between them and Saracens for top
spot – but there'll be enough points on offer elsewhere to claim a best runners
up spot.
Connacht
Despite being traditionally the weakest of the 4 Irish
provinces, Connacht have enjoyed their recent forays into the Heineken Cup,
upsetting the likes of Harlequins in the monsoon-like conditions that grace the
fields of Galway. Despite being a major
banana-skin for travelling sides, it is fair to say that the Irish side lack
the out-and-out class of their compatriots, although the likes of John Muldoon
and Dan Parks add some real nous and direction.
It's difficult to see them upsetting the apple cart too much – their Pro
12 from sees them languishing in 11th place – but there'll be few sides relishing
a trip to the West of Ireland.
One to watch: James So'oialo. The Samoan international is a new arrival for
the men in green and has brought with him the destructive ability of the
Pacific Islanders, with brute force in the tackle and on the carry being the
order of the day. But the utility back
is also a subtle ball player and is useful off the kicking tee, making him an
ideal all-rounder for this inexperienced Connacht outfit. It's a shame about his ludicrous haircut
though.
Prediction: 3rd.
They'll give sides a run for their money at home but there is a significant
gulf in class between them and the likes of Saracens and Toulouse. It'll be a wooden spoon battle between them
and Zebre.
Saracens
The rising force of English rugby seem to have taken the
next step this year, making relatively few signings but ensuring each new
arrival brings something extra to the team.
The additions of James Johnston and Billy Vunipola, plus the return and
form of Jacques Burger, means that this Saracens side has a pack to compete
with the very best of them. And, as
their domestic form has shown, they're now playing a new brand of rugby that
brings in the talent outside as well, with the likes of Chris Ashton and Owen
Farrell looking very sharp. They're
generally disliked as a side, but if you hold your ears when their awful 'Stand
up for Saracens' song plays, there's some very decent rugby on offer at Allianz
Park.
One to watch: Billy Vunipola. The gargantuan number 8 has quickly become a
fixture in the side, along with his brother, and will be looking to make waves
internationally as well this year. His
colossal power on the carry and improved fitness has meant that Sarries can
always play off front foot ball.
Prediction: 1st (Champions). It's a big call, with so many good sides
around, but with the struggles the French sides have away from home and the way
Saracens have started this season, they have the potential to go all the
way. It pains me to say it, but something
special may actually be happening at Saracens.
Zebre
Poor old Zebre.
Perhaps an example as to why a meritocracy in qualification is desired
by the English and French clubs, Zebre's guaranteed place in the Heineken Cup
has meant that they are little more than cannon-fodder for the big sides
looking to pick up bonus points. That
said, they have proved in the Pro 12 this season that they are capable of
producing the odd big performance and the occasional upset so, whilst they may
not be anywhere near the top end of the pool, they'll certainly be targeting
Connacht and will fancy their chances against anyone at home.
One to watch: Giovanbattista Venditti. The powerful winger has shown in the Six
Nations what a handful he is to defend against and he is crucial to the Italian
side's attacking game. Coming in off his
wing, he is a physical presence and will always concern opposition defenders.
Prediction: 4th.
I can't see anything above 3rd place for the minnows in this group, and
their recent loss to Connacht doesn't
help. They'll fancy their chances at
home, of course, but they'll be playing for pride more than a spot in the
knockout stages.
Pool 4
Scarlets
The Llanelli side have maintained their proud tradition of
playing with typical Welsh skill and flair over the years but have often been
undone by a pack that is about as threatening as Mother Theresa. It's meant that, when they have space, they
are able to tear sides to shreds with slick offloading, fast hands and
wonderful running angles, but if the opposition manage to slow the game down,
they struggle to compete in an arm wrestle.
Not much seems to have changed this year as they wallow in the mid-table
of the Pro 12, but with the likes of Rhys Priestland and Jonathan Davies in the
ranks, you can never afford to take your eyes off them.
One to watch: Jordan Williams. The winger has lightening quick feet and
superb acceleration, as he showed when he seemingly beat half of the Edinburgh
side to cross for a fantastic solo try in the Pro 12. If he gets the chance to run kicks back then
he'll cause plenty of problems.
Prediction: 4th.
The Scarlets will be competitive and are a decent side but they
unfortunately find themselves in one hell of a group, with 3 sides who will
believe that they can go the distance.
They'll keep the entertainment value up but they won't be threatening
the quarter finals.
Clermont Auvergne
Unofficially, the best team in Europe over the last 3 years,
yet somehow they always manage to balls it up, losing games that they simply
shouldn't be losing – a prime example being the Heineken Cup Final last
year. How they lost to Toulon when they
seemingly had it in the bag was a mystery to me. But once again, you have to step back and
admire the sheer talent they have coursing through their squad – from Wesley Fofana
to Benjamin Kayser – and their home record remains the most formidable in
Europe.
One to watch: Julien Bonnaire. Well, if the rumours are true and Ma'a Nonu
joins, then that will certainly be a spectacle, but otherwise the veteran back
rower remains a key figure for Clermont.
Fast around the park and dominant in the lineout, he is a major part of
the platform from which the men in white launch their unstoppable attacks.
Prediction: 1st (Runners up). Clermont are still an unbelievably talented
side and should have no problems getting out of their group – and from there it
all depends if they can get home advantage.
The difference for them is huge, and if the draw goes their way I can
see them making it all the way to the final – but in the hostile atmosphere of
the Millennium Stadium, maybe the old away-day gremlins will return to haunt
them.
Harlequins
Champions of England two years ago, the Londoners appear to
be on something of a slight decline.
Looking dominant in Europe and the Premiership for the first six months
of last season, Quins fans would have been forgiven for thinking a historic
double was in the offing – instead, they tailed off badly, looking exhausted
and suffering maulings by Munster in the quarter finals of Europe and Leicester
in the play-offs. This season hasn't
gone according to plan either with two home defeats already, albeit to the
mighty Saracens and Northampton.
However, on their day Quins are capable of mixing it up with the best,
and we've seen flashes of that so far this season – the lightening fast
offloading game is nigh-on impossible to defend against.
One to watch: Nick Easter. Charlie Walker and Jack Clifford are
prodigious talents but it's difficult to see them getting much game time, so
I've gone to the other end of the experience scale. Packing down at lock more often than not,
veteran Easter may well be in his final season but he has shown power and guile
belying his years so far this term.
He'll be desperate to go out with a bang.
Prediction: 3rd.
They're certainly in with a shot of qualifying but I think it will be as
a best runner-up…and they'll need their form and execution to pick up
considerably if that's to happen.
They've looked panicked at times this season and the two big French
clubs will look to exploit that.
Racing Metro
Another one of the French money-bags, Racing seem to have
used the British & Irish Lions as a 'feeder' team for their squad. With Dan Lydiate, Jamie Roberts and Johnny
Sexton joining a team already stuffed full of quality players in the mould of
Benjamin Fall and Maxime Machenaud.
Despite the huge influx of quality over the years, Racing are yet to
make an impact on the European stage and haven't impressed so far this year in
the Top 14. Clearly they have some
world-class operators, but you get the feeling that the rest of the squad may
not quite have the same desire for European success as some of their imports.
One to watch: Johnny Sexton. If one person in this Racing side can
appreciate the value of the Heineken Cup, it’s him. The Ireland and Lions 10 is a class act and
3-time champion of Europe, with his virtuoso display against Northampton in
2011 ranking up there with the best. He
has to get his side to follow his example and treat the competition with the
reverence it deserves.
Prediction: 2nd (Quarter finals). I thought long and hard about this but Racing
just have too much class to ignore. With
a hefty pack and dangerous set of backs, they will surely be a force this
year…if they click.
Pool 5
Treviso
The Italian side have grown in stature each year to the
point where, upon seeing your team grouped with Treviso, smiles and hopes of
guaranteed 5-pointers have been replaced by nervous gulps and images of giant
banana skins. Lurking in mid-table in
Pro 12 this year, they have already picked up home wins against Munster and
Connacht, although they have been struggling for away form. They gave Leicester and Toulouse real scares
last year and will be relishing the thought at having another crack at the
Tigers, who they seem to be perennially grouped with.
One to Watch: Simone Favaro. The loss of Tommaso
Benvenuti to Perpignan has left a shortage of X-Factor out wide, so it will be
up to the pack to do the damage. Favaro
was a stand-out performance last Six Nations for the Azzurri and his powerful
carrying and work over the ball will be key to keeping Treviso in games.
Prediction: 4th.
They've been grouped with 3 sides who may all have serious ambition this
year and, although they will provide stern tests – particularly at home – it's
hard to see them sneaking into the knockout stages.
Montpellier
All of a sudden, these guys have emerged as one of the
premier forces in Europe – and I don't say that lightly. Their multicultural side has some huge names
in – literally, in the case of Mamuka Gorgodze.
With Nicholas Mas, Jim Hamilton, Johnnie Beattie and Fulgence Ouedrago
in the pack, it's no wonder they have been dominating possession in the Top 14
and are sitting top of the pile. Their
backline is also glittering and the likes of Jonathan Pelissie and Francois
Trinh-Duc have been in clinical form, even putting Clermont to the sword by
administering a 40 point thrashing.
Doubts remain about their ability away from home, but there is no
doubting the threat Montpellier pose.
One to watch: Rene Ranger. After a stand-out season for
the Blues in Super Rugby, the often overlooked Ranger has moved up north where
his brand of searing speed, slick hands and phenomenal power will sure to make
him a big hit with the locals…and a nightmare for the opposition.
Prediction: 2nd (Eliminated). Difficult.
They are my dark horses for this year and have the raw potential to win
the whole thing, but they blow seriously hot and cold and struggle away from
home. In a group with 3 difficult away
fixtures in, it will come down to bonus points and points difference, and their
away form may just be their undoing.
Ulster
After the euphoria of reaching the final 2 years ago, last
year's campaign didn't quite scale the same heights, with a quarter final exit
at the hands of Saracens. However, they
finished on top of the pile in the Pro 12 for the first time in their history,
despite not winning the playoffs, and have shown signs of recovery after a poor
start to the season this year. Ravenhill
remains one of the most intimidating places to play rugby and nobody will be
looking forward to taking them on there, whilst news that Ruan Pienaar has
signed a 3 year extension to his contract will have given the whole club a
massive boost.
One to watch: Paddy Jackson. The young fly half didn't have the easiest of
introductions to international rugby but he is valued highly by his club. His eye for a gap and slick distribution
makes him, on his day, one of the best attacking fly halves around but he can
on occasion get a little flustered when put under pressure.
Prediction: 3rd.
Don't get me wrong, they have the potential to win the group, but I'm
not quite sure they have the class across the board to beat Leicester or
Montpellier away. That said, there'll be
a matter of 2-3 points I predict between first and third place, so it wouldn't
be surprising at all to see them sneak into the quarters.
Leicester Tigers
The old warhorses of Europe return to their favourite
competition knowing that it is 12 long years since they last got their hands on
the trophy. The Tigers have started the
season solidly, but have endured a terrible injury list that has seen them
shorn of such attacking talents as Tom Croft, Manu Tuilagi and Mathew
Tait. However, there's still enough
power up front in the form of Dan Cole, Tom Youngs, Geoff Parling and Julian
Salvi, whilst Toby Flood, Ben Youngs and Niki Goneva are all capable of
creating something from nothing out wide.
Leicester's problem is that they rely so heavily on forward dominance
that, when they don't get it, they panic – but the problem for other sides is
how to stop that grizzled pack once it gets rumbling.
One to watch: Ben Youngs. The England and Lions scrum half has come
back this season and not looked entirely fit, but there is still no questioning
his importance to the team when on form.
So often the catalyst for the Tigers' attacks, Youngs needs to ensure he
delivers Flood quick ball and doesn't panic when the pressure comes on.
Prediction: 1st (Quarter finals). The Tigers may not look like the most vintage
Leicester side we've seen, but they have a knack of winning at the right time
and, with injured stars still to return, they should get stronger as the season
goes on. It will be tight, but with some
fortune, Tigers should sneak top spot in a low scoring group – meaning they'll
face a tricky away fixture.
Pool 6
Edinburgh
Oh dear. From a
heroic semi-final appearance 2 seasons ago, the Scottish side won none of their
six pool games this year and sit bottom of the Pro 12 (creating a nice Scottish
'bookend' with Glasgow holding top spot).
How such a spectacular fall from grace has occurred, I don't know, but
it's very hard to see Edinburgh providing much of a challenge for the top spot
in the pool. However, stranger things
have happened (although I'm struggling to pick out specific examples) and with
talent such as David Denton, Tim Visser and Greg Laidlaw in their ranks, you
can never totally write them off.
One to watch: Ross Rennie. The Scottish flanker has been plagued by
injuries but when he's fit he is an international-class ball stealer. If he can stay 100% and get stuck into
opposition ball, then Edinburgh might just spring a surprise or two.
Prediction: 4th. Their form is terrible, simply put. You also get the impression that morale is
low, and that isn't helped by the uncertainty over their European income for
next year. It could be another long
season in Europe for the Scottish side.
Gloucester
The cultured rugby critic all had their 'secret' tip for big
things this year, and almost every one pointed at Gloucester. Even the uncultured ones, such as myself,
predicted strong domestic and European displays from the Cherry and Whites but,
although it is early days, the results so far are ominous. Tight wins against Northampton and Newcastle
aside, Gloucester have been leaking
tries at an alarming rate and will be desperate to ensure that their return to
European rugby does not reflect their domestic form.
One to watch: Billy Twelvetrees. The England man and Lions tourist has had a
mixed season so far, putting in some sensational displays – notably against
Northampton – and some less impressive ones, such as his last display against
Exeter. If he can find consistency he is
a real leader for this backline and has the skillset to unleash the searing
pace Gloucester have out wide.
Prediction: 2nd (Eliminated). The Cherry and Whites will come good this
season – I maintain that. But a slow
start could see their campaign derailed before they've really begun. I can see them pushing for top spot in a
group that lacks any title challengers but Munster should be just too strong.
Perpignan
The men from the Spanish border make a welcome return to
Heineken Cup rugby after a brief absence, but it's hard to see them making the
same waves as in their heyday when they were European finalists. Despite that, they still uphold the proud
Perpignan tradition of building a side around a powerful pack, where the likes
of Luke Charteris, Luke Narraway and Danny Leo ensure that they usually enjoy
set piece dominance. They have looked
solid in the Top 14 this season but, once again, have had their struggles away
from home.
One to watch: James Hook. The talented and versatile Mr Hook is a key
figure for Perpignan as he attempts to guide their forward-based game plan into
the right areas of the pitch. With a
cultured boot to gain field position and keep the scoreboard moving, Hook will
be relying on his more traditional fly-half skills to win games rather than his
natural flair.
Prediction: 3rd.
The French outfit will be delighted to be back in the big time but I
can't see them making too much of an impact away from their own back yard.
Munster
Munster came storming back into European recognition with a
stunningly physical display against Harlequins and then an equally resilient
fightback against Clermont to earn the respect of the rugby fraternity. That proud European pedigree is still evident
when watching the men in red and Thomond Park remains one of the best venues in
rugby for passion, atmosphere, and a bloody good booze up. Expectations are creeping up in this corner
of Ireland as well after an impressive start to their Pro 12 season, where they
sit in 2nd place.
One to watch: Simon Zebo. Need you ask?
Even if he does nothing else for the entirety of his career, 'that' heel
flick has ensured that Zebo will always be expected to get the crowd on their
feet. He may not be the key cog of this
Munster side, but he is pure box office and one the blokes who makes watching
the Heineken Cup special.
Prediction: 1st (semi-finals). Munster have one of the easier groups and
look to be hitting form once again – it all points to a home quarter final, and
who would bet against them with the Fields of Athenry ringing in the ears?
