Super XV Big Match Preview - Brumbies v Crusaders

 

Ah, memories.  Moments to cherish, instances of public humiliation you'd rather forget – they all go into that bank in your head to bring out at the opportune or inopportune moment.  And when you mention "Brumbies v Crusaders" the mind can't help but wander (as long as you're a certain age) to the heydays of Super Rugby (as far as these two clubs are concerned) when it seemed every Grand Final was contested between the men from Canterbury and ACT.  Between 2000 and 2004, the two sides fought it out in no less than three finals, with the Kiwis winning the first two before the vintage Brumbies side of 2004 – complete with Gregan and Larkham – finally got one up on their nemesis at the third time of asking.  But it was the standard of rugby played by such quality players, such as Aaron Mauger, Todd Blackadder and Stephen Larkham, that made these finals such a pleasure to watch.

2004 was the last time the Brumbies lifted the trophy, and whilst the Crusaders last got their mitts on it 4 years later in 2008, it's fair to say that these two sides aren't quite the almighty forces of old.  But, certainly at the Brumbies, something special is happening.  Last year, they took us all by surprise by having a decent season with a bunch of nobodies in the team – this year, those same guys are now somebodies, and they're tearing it up even more despite the fact the opposition no what's coming.  Guys like Ben Mowen, Christian Lealiifano and Jesse Mogg are all serious international prospects, and it would be one hell of a rise if they were to debut against the touring Lions this summer.  Maybe, because of that, it's a season too early for them – but there's no doubting that they’re the form players, and team, in Australia.  Boasting speed, inventiveness and set piece power all in 1, it’s little wonder they've got a record of won 7, lost 2, drawn 1.

The Crusaders meanwhile have been hampered that so many of their stars are either injured or on extended holidays.  Dan Carter will make his reappearance after celebrating his wedding, but guys of the quality of Kieran Read and Richie McCaw are still missing, whilst gifted All Black Israel Dagg is so out of form that he's been benched.  The players filling in have all done sterling jobs, but there's a feeling that all this chopping and changing has hampered the side's consistency – and now, in the lower mid table, their season's hopes are hanging by a thread.  They need to win this one.

It’s all set for a fast, entertaining and highly pressurised game.  Let's hope for a return to the good old days.

Brumbies Team News

Dan Palmer returns to the line-up at tighthead prop, with Ben Alexander moving across to loosehead.  Scott Sio drops to the bench with Ruaidhri Murphy omitted from the match-day squad. The game will see George Smith become the most-capped Brumbies player, overhauling George Gregan's record of 136 appearance.

Starting Line up:  Jesse Mogg, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano, Joe Tomane, Matt Toomua, Nic White, Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore, Dan Palmer, Peter Kimlin, Sam Carter, Fotu Auelua, George Smith, Ben Mowen (c).

Subs: Siliva Siliva, Scott Sio, Leon Power, Colby Faingaa, Ian Prior, Robbie Coleman, Pat McCabe

Key Player

Jesse Mogg.  Where is this guy's fansite, and how do I sign up?  I reckon he gets better every game and looks every bit like he might be yet another stellar Aussie fullback in the making, following in the footsteps of Burke, Latham, Rogers…well, Burke and Latham anyway.  He seems such an effortless runner, leaving defenders for dead with his long stride – and his rugby brain is one of the sharpest out there, knowing when and where to attack, and when to play it safe.  The more he joins the line and gets into the line, the more dangerous the Brumbies are.

Crusaders Team News

Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder has lost patience with Israel Dagg, dropping the out-of-form All Blacks fullback to the bench.  Tom Taylor switches from inside centre to replace Dagg at fullback, allowing Ryan Crotty to slot back into the inside centre position, whilst Dan Carter returns in place of Tyler Bleyendaal, who drops out of the squad completely. 

Starting Line up: Tom Taylor; Tom Marshall, Robbie Fruean, Ryan Crotty, Zac Guildford; Dan Carter, Andy Ellis; Luke Whitelock, Matt Todd, George Whitelock (captain); Sam Whitelock, Luke Romano; Owen Franks, Corey Flynn, Wyatt Crockett.

Subs: Ben Funnell, Joe Moody, Dominic Bird, Jordan Taufua, Willi Heinz, Adam Whitelock, Israel Dagg.

Key Player

Dan Carter.  Well it has to be, hasn't it?  The New Zealand legend is back for his first start following a Wedding-induced break from rugby, but he'll need to get up to speed quickly and on the same wavelength as his teammates if he's to turn around his struggling side's fortunes.  On his day he's majestic – with a pinpoint boot, almost telepathic vision, wonderful hands, great speed, beautiful eyes…sorry, I got carried way.  Yeah, he's good.  But is he good enough to drag the Crusaders to a victory against one of the best teams in the tournament?

Key Battle

Henry Speight v Zac Guilford.  Ones been burning a trail all the season, the other is just beginning to spark.  Speight has been one of Super Rugby's most exciting runners over the last few seasons, combining electric pace with subtle footwork and blinding acceleration, whilst Guilford has been a big name for years – but he's only just starting to hit his straps this year, following a sabbatical to deal with his alcoholism.  He's not got the same out and out pace as Speight, but his eye for a gap and work rate off his wing is superb.  In what should be a free flowing game (kiss of death), the outcome may well depend on who can make the most of the opportunities they are given.

Prediction

The Crusaders may have the phenomenal Dan Carter back but he didn't look quite up to speed against the Rebels last week, and the Brumbies will provide an even tougher test.  This will be a high pressure game for a lot of the youngsters, with the Lions series now well and truly on the horizon, but I haven't seen anything that leads me to believe they can't handle it.  I'm going for a home win – Brumbies by 7.

 

What else is happing across the Southern Hemisphere this weekend?

Blues v Stormers:  The Auckland side look really impressive at the moment and I think that even the resurgent Stormers will struggle to get a win, especially in the Blues' backyard.  Blues by 9.

Rebels v Chiefs:  The Chiefs were the epitome of hot and cold last weekend, as they went from rampant to ragged in 20 minutes bursts.  If they show up, they could grab a big score, but the Rebels – despite some of the 'characters' in their side – are no mugs and will pounce on any weakness.  Chiefs by 12.

Highlanders v Sharks:  Eeesh this is a tough one to call.  Surely the Highlanders have to win won soon – their squad is just too good on paper.  Perhaps a Sharks side on a 3 match losing streak may be the answer, but I'm not going to jinx it.  Sharks by 4.

Force v Reds:  The Reds were pushed all the way by the Blues but will be the better for it whilst the Force, despite being at home, will still be smarting after their humbling at the hands of the Brumbies.  The Queenslanders just have too much class – Reds by 10.

Kings v Waratahs:  The Kings have proven themselves time and time again to be a real tough nut to crack at home, but this Waratahs side is looking pretty decent.  If Israel Folau and co keep up their rate of improvement, they should grab a win.  Tahs by 6.

Bulls v Hurricanes:  The Bulls have picked up some form again of late, defeating the Waratahs last week and playing some decent stuff in patches.  The Hurricanes, however, have been infuriatingly inconsistent and Pretoria is not the place to go when short on confidence.  Bulls by 12.