Third Test Preview - Australia v British & Irish Lions

Blood, sweat and tears.  The rugby mantra.  The ingredients that make our sport the best in the world to watch, comment on and, most of all, play.  This Test series has all three in abundance – blood, in the form of the physical batterings the players have withstood to take to the pitch for the final test; sweat, because, well, they are trying hard; and tears, as the blubbing James Horwill will testify after a glorious Second Test victory for the Wallabies in Melbourne.  Those unlectured in the glory of rugby and the significance of a Lions tour may treat the sight of a 6 foot 6 man blubbing uncontrollably like a teenage Justin Bieber fan with a certain form of contempt but, for the rest of us, it is just another marker of how defining these games are to the careers and even the lives of the players involved.  And that’s not to mention the fans too.

I’ve been smug enough to be in Sydney over the last 4 days (hence the lack of blog posts – apologies), and there is a very definite sense that something special is happening.  The sense that the Third Test will be a game of unparalleled drama and importance to all of those involved in the game.  Perhaps one of the most striking things, to me at least though, is how much this means to the locals over here.  As an Englishman, I know what the Lions mean, as does anyone involved in rugby in the British and Irish Islands, but the Aussie fans know what it means to beat them.  For players in Wales, Ireland, England and Scotland, the chance to play the for the Lions may come around 3, or even 4 times in your career; for the Wallabies, the chance to play the Lions comes around once in a rugby-playing lifespan (unless you are George Smith, of course), so this series means just as much to the men in green and gold as it does to those wearing red.  And with all that passion comes opinion – and I haven’t heard one positive remark about the Lions’ team selection for this Saturday.

I have to admit, I admire Warren Gatland in a way.  To remove Brian O’Driscoll from a side in possibly the biggest game of your career is one hell of a coaching decision – unfortunately, nobody seems to think it will pay off.  Every Australian I’ve spoken to has displayed reaction somewhere between shock and amusement that the Irish legend has been dropped, and most seem to think that it will hand them a Series win – plenty of Lions supporters seem to feel the same way, too.  My view?  I think it is a mistake, but I can see why he has done it.  The Lions were as limp as a wet flannel when it came to threatening the line in Melbourne, and the introduction of Roberts would help the tourists certainly break that gain line.  But the problem is that Roberts has looked average at best since 2009, whilst Manu Tuilagi has generally been more effective as a power runner since his introduction to international rugby; but even saying that, O’Driscoll did not deserve to be dropped – Davies made the defensive error by stepping in for the key score in the Second Test, and it’s hard to see why he remains, despite being in very decent nick otherwise this tour.   Roberts will have to physically dominate James O’Connor and Chrisian Lealiifano if the tourists are to succeed.

But to me, this isn’t the biggest call.  In order to win, the Lions will require speed and power in their pack and Tom Youngs has been just about the Lions’ best carrier over the last two games, not to mention one of the top tacklers.  Sure, the lineout hasn’t been perfect, but he still has the best record out of all the other hookers and he is another that the Aussie fans are shocked at being dropped.  In terms of the other changes, O’Brien and Faletau will hopefully be the right calls and complement Lydiate well in a powerful backrow, but it is hard not to feel sorry for Tom Croft, Alex Cuthbert, Jamie Heaslip and Ben Youngs, who have all been dropped completely without necessarily doing anything wrong in the Test Matches.  Indeed, having Conor Murray – the Irish replica of Mike Phillips – on the bench, seems to be a very limiting decision if the game plan does need to be changed.

The Wallabies, though, will not care one jot about this.  The important thing for them is that they build on this momentum that has been built since their win in Melbourne.  Whereas the Lions made 5 changes to a winning side, the Wallabies have made just one, with George Smith replacing the talented Michael Hooper at openside flanker.  Although not a decision of O’Driscoll-esque importance, the call is a harsh one on the young Waratah – although, again, I can see why it has been made.  Smith is a master forager with every trick in the book up his sleeve, he will be going out there to chop down Roberts and he will know more than anyone how to deal with the pressure-cooker atmosphere that will be built up in the Stadium come 8pm tomorrow in Sydney.  Exactly what the Lions will be missing without O’Driscoll.

But team selections will count for nothing tomorrow evening.  It will instead be rugby at its most basic; at its most beautiful.  Blood, sweat and tears.  Expect plenty of all 3 tomorrow.

Wallabies Team News

Smith returns to the Wallabies' line-up at the expense of Michael Hooper in the only change to the side that started in Melbourne last week. Hooper drops to the bench with Liam Gill making way on a bench that reverts to a six-forward, two-back split. Western Force loose forward Ben McCalman is drafted in with Rob Horne the unlucky back to make way with Nick Phipps and uncapped fullback Jesse Mogg providing the run on options.

Starting Line up:  Kurtley Beale (Melbourne Rebels), Israel Folau (NSW), Adam Ashley-Cooper (NSW), Christian Leali'ifano (ACT Brumbies), Joe Tomane (Brumbies), James O'Connor (Melbourne Rebels), Will Genia (Reds); Benn Robinson (NSW), Stephen Moore (ACT), Ben Alexander (ACT), James Horwill (Reds - capt), Kane Douglas (NSW), Ben Mowen (ACT), George Smith (Brumbies), Wycliff Palu (NSW).

Subs: Saia Fainga'a (Reds), James Slipper (Reds), Sekope Kepu (NSW), Rob Simmons (Reds), Ben McCalman (Western Force), Michael Hooper (NSW), Nick Phipps (Rebels), Jesse Mogg (Brumbies).

Key Player

George Smith.  It’s a huge call from Robbie Deans to call up the veteran flanker after so long out with a knee injury – but it’s a sign of the ability of the Brumbies man that there was no hesitation in dropping the excellent Michael Hooper to make way for him.  In a game that is sure to provide more than its fair share of physical confrontation, the openside will be key to the Wallabies’ hopes of dismantling the inevitable waves of big runners that will be sent their way.  Smith still retains that uncanny ability to get over the ball and cause havoc for an attacking team and if he is able to slow the ball down enough, then it doesn’t matter how big the runners are out wide.  The Wallabies will be waiting.

Lions Team News

The Lions have opted to make six changes and one pivotal switch following last weekend's defeat in Melbourne with the headline-grabbing omission of veteran centre Brian O'Driscoll. Jonathan Davies is preferred at No.13 with Jamie Roberts filling the void at inside centre, while scrum-half Mike Phillips returns instead of England's Ben Youngs, who like O'Driscoll does not even make the bench. A fit-again Alex Corbisiero will pack down at loose-head instead of Mako Vunipola, hooker Richard Hibbard gets the nod over Tom Youngs, Sean O'Brien replaces injured skipper Sam Warburton and Toby Faletau is preferred at No.8 to Jamie Heaslip in a side that will be led by lock Alun-Wyn Jones. Starting Line up:  Leigh Halfpenny (Wales); Tommy Bowe (Ireland), Jonathan Davies (Wales), Jamie Roberts (Wales), George North (Wales); Jonathan Sexton (Ireland), Mike Phillips (Wales); Alex Corbisiero (England), Richard Hibbard (Wales), Adam Jones (Wales), Alun Wyn Jones (captain, Wales), Geoff Parling (England), Dan Lydiate (Wales), Sean O'Brien (Ireland), Toby Faletau (Wales).

Subs: Tom Youngs (England), Mako Vunipola (England), Dan Cole (England), Richie Gray (Scotland), Justin Tipuric (Wales), Conor Murray (Ireland), Owen Farrell (England), Manu Tuilagi (England).

 

Key Player

Jamie Roberts.  The doctor is in session and if there was a time to put in a clinical performance, this is it.  The Lions lacked penetration and punch in the pack and in the backline last Saturday and Roberts has been brought in to get that front foot ball and work the openings for others.  The problem?  He’s looked pretty ordinary for quite a while for Wales and was conspicuous by the amount of times he turned the ball over in his last couple of outings for the Lions.  In my book, he is lucky to get a spot ahead of Manu Tuilagi – who beat twice as many players in half as many games during the Six Nations – and he has to justify his selection by putting in a South Africa-esque Test display that has the Wallabies rocking backwards.  The only way the Lions will win this game is if they physically dominate the hosts in the contact area – if Roberts fails at this, the whole game plan goes to pot.

Key Battle

Israel Folau v George North.  Sure, this is the war between the 2 pretty boys of the teams – the finishers; the show ponies – but in a game where small advantages matter, the battle between the 2 wingers will be absolutely critical.  The result is just about even at the moment, with both wingers proving to be unfairly superior physical specimens of men in displays of sheer power and athleticism.  Folau is a sensational athlete and needs the ball in space, and if he receives this he has to be ready to take advantage of the tiniest gaps made available to him – because there won’t be many.  North, on the other hand, has a proven track record of exploiting space for Wales, but he has to work harder in my opinion – with Bowe on the other wing, he has to come late off Sexton’s shoulder in the middle more often to pierce holes off first phase ball and get the opposition in retreat.  In a game of attrition, the two blokes with the X Factor may just hold the key to unlocking this game.

Prediction

This is it.  It is for moments like this that these blokes play the game; it is moments like this that define careers and create history.  The momentum is with the Wallabies.  Their magnificent captain from the second test, James Horwill, has been cleared to play and you cannot underestimate how important that call is.  The Lions lost the second test because they were unable to achieve front foot ball – and Gatland has picked a side that will attempt to achieve that by brute force.  The problem is that the Wallabies know how to handle that – they have dealt with the All Blacks, the Springboks and, far more importantly, the Welsh before, and the power game alone will not defeat this Australian side.  The hosts may not be the biggest, but they are very intelligent and unless the tourists can vary their game, the Lions will struggle.  Sydney’s talk has been one of shock at some of the omissions from the visitors’ side, and I can see some of these being key to the result tomorrow.  Wallabies by 3.