Six Nations Preview - Scotland v England

Something bizarre is happening up in Scotland.  Things we have taken for granted in the past are now no longer certainties.  It was long said that Murrayfield was one of the finest playing surfaces in world rugby, and with good cause too – the pitch effectively doubled as the world’s largest and most boring (i.e. flattest) putting green.  Now, however, a cheeky outbreak of greedy microscopic worms have ensured that this once magnificent surface will now resemble a pile of mashed up haggis after just five minutes of play.  Worse still, it could end up resembling the pitch at the Millennium Stadium, if weather predictions of wind and rain are to be believed.  But, if this has dominated the build up during the week, the other big shock – announced yesterday – is that Scott Johnson (AKA The Penguin) has made the huge call to drop captain and renowned-grafter Kelly Brown from not just the starting line up, but the entire squad.

It’s a massive call to make before a Calcutta cup game.  Kelly Brown and the two pet slugs that he calls his eyebrows are a mainstay of the national side and he represents the trademark qualities of all great Scottish teams – utter commitment, physicality and fearlessness.  Yes, he may not be the quickest or a scavenging 7 in the traditional mould, but he’s a hell of a leader to leave out of the side.  And, call me a traditionalist, but I’ve always thought that when you pick a captain he should be one that will be the first name on your teamsheet for the foreseeable future, and not someone who you drop after one loss to be replaced by a debutant.  It paints a picture of disarray in the Scottish camp.

Of course, his replacement, Chris Fusaro, is a fine player in his own right but he lacks experience of Test match intensity.  That said, he is a jackal over the ball and Scott Johnson will be demanding that he slows down and frustrates England’s game – which is based on quick recycling – as much as possible.  But it will take much more than an impressive debutant to get the Scots to improve on their disappointing showing in Dublin – once again, they had the Lions share of possession but failed to generate enough quality ball to make the most of it...and they are also lacking real class out wide, with one notable exception.  Stuart Hogg, as usual, looks like one of the most dangerous runners in Northern Hemisphere rugby, and is as refreshing to Scottish fans as a Highland breeze up the kilt.  Simply put, they need to get this man the ball in space as often as possible.

England, visiting a ground which has not always provided happy memories, have backline concerns of their own.  With their first choice wingers and outside centre injured, the team has a mix’n’match feel to it despite holding its own for 75 minutes against France in Paris last weekend.  Stuart Lancaster has resisted the urge to ‘get free’, unlike his Scottish counterpart and has stuck with the entire same squad.  This is great for continuity, but once again attention does end up on the substitutes bench, and you wonder whether the likes of Ben Youngs, Kyle Eastmond and Anthony Watson would be better options for injecting some pace in the game in order to pull away from the opposition or to claw their side back into the game than the current selection of Lee Dickson, Brad Barritt and Alex Goode.

A stat that has been thrown at me this week is that Scotland have won only 3 of their last 25 matches against England.  Well, another stat is that England have won only once in their last 4 visits to Murrayfield – in 2012, having lost in 2006 and 2008 and drawn in 2010.  They will be well aware that they need to show up ready for war on Saturday evening.  To do that, they’ll need to channel the aggression and frustration that came about from losing a game that they had in the bag last week.  The forwards, in particular, must be seething having bullied their counterparts in the loose for 60 minutes – and, although they had set piece issues against the world’s best scrummaging front row, it’s hard to see that they’ll have the same problems against a Scottish unit that struggled against the Irish 6 ago.  It is usually the Scottish forwards who are fired up for the Calcutta cup match and they often catch their English counterparts by surprise, but I get the feeling that – this time – the boot may be on the other foot.  Another bizarre happening in Scotland.

But rest assured that some things won’t change.  The weather will be cold, it will rain, the fireworks will burn bright and the Calcutta cup will once again serve up a bloodied arm-wrestle of a game.  The fans somehow can shout 10% louder; the players can hit 10% harder.  This one will not be fought with fancy hands or quick feet, it will be fought with hard yards and nerves of steel, with hugely physical contests between the back rows around the fringes and a battle of the boots between the half backs.  The clash with the Auld Enemy will be ugly, brutal, and utterly compelling.  Not much has changed there, then.

Scotland Team News

Coach Scott Johnson has dropped a bombshell by axing Captain Kelly Brown from the Scotland squad for the Calcutta Cup match against England.  He is replaced in the back row by Chris Fusaro, who will earn his first cap at open-side flanker.   Matt Scott replaces Duncan Taylor at centre, with wing Tommy Seymour coming in for the injured Sean Maitland.  Richie Gray, who was on the bench in the opening Six Nations defeat by Ireland, also drops out of the squad ahead of the Murrayfield clash.  Edinburgh scrum-half Greig Laidlaw takes over the captaincy in Brown's absence.

Starting Line up:  Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour, Alex Dunbar, Matt Scott, Sean Lamont, Duncan Weir, Greig Laidlaw (captain), Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Moray Low, Tim Swinson, Jim Hamilton, Ryan Wilson, Chris Fusaro, David Denton

Subs: Scott Lawson, Alasdair Dickinson, Geoff Cross, Jonny Gray, Johnnie Beattie, Chris Cusiter, Duncan Taylor, Max Evans

Key Player

Chris Fusaro.  Well, it has to be, hasn't it?  You can't just waltz into the starting line-up for your first cap in your country's biggest game of the championship (replacing the national captain in the process) and expect to get away with no extra attention.  Clearly, Scott Johnson has a plan in mind when dropping as quality a player as Brown, and it will be interesting to see what that is.  Fusaro is more of a scavenging 7 of the classic mould, rather than a physical work-horse like Brown, or Wood or Robshaw for that matter.  One of England's little problems in Paris was that they were occasionally half a step too slow in hitting the rucks, allowing the likes of Bastareaud and Nyanga to claim turnovers at key times.  Perhaps the idea is that Fusaro will be charged solely with getting to the contact area first and latching on to the ball at every opportunity, stifling England's momentum and giving his side the holy grail of attacking rugby – turnover ball.

 

England Team News

England head coach Stuart Lancaster has kept faith with the side which lost to France and named an unchanged line-up for Saturday's match against Scotland.   Gloucester's Jonny May starts on the wing despite breaking his nose nine minutes into the 26-24 loss in Paris.  Courtney Lawes will be in the second row after his cheekbone bruising eased, while Danny Care and Owen Farrell form the half-back partnership.

Starting Line up:  Mike Brown, Jack Nowell, Luther Burrell, Billy Twelvetrees, Jonny May, Owen Farrell, Danny Care; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (captain), Billy Vunipola

Subs: Tom Youngs, Mako Vunipola, Henry Thomas, Dave Attwood, Ben Morgan, Lee Dickson, Brad Barritt, Alex Goode

Key Player

Jonny May.  The winger was deemed fit to play after spending the majority of Saturday wearing an angry dog's muzzle, but he will need to put any discomfort to the back of his mind when lining up at Murrayfield.  With conditions expected to be as welcoming as the home crowd and the pitch condition rapidly deteriorating, it's unlikely he'll be able to showcase his pace and footwork this weekend.  Instead, I suspect his main job will be to remain solid under high bombs launched into winter evening by Duncan Weir – a job made all the more difficult by the fact that there will be at least 2 very angry Scottish players hurtling after him.  If he has any sort of nerves about playing so soon after breaking his nose (and having done it myself, it is very tender), it will be ruthlessly exploited by the smart Scottish half backs.

Key Battle

Dave Denton v Billy Vunipola.  Dave Denton, the South African born Scottish number 8, holds the rare honour for a Scottish player of being applauded by fans of all the home nations, including England.  The incident in question occurred when then the big man charged straight into Richie McCaw and left the All Blacks captain on his backside – a pleasing sight for everybody outside of New Zealand.  He will be required to bring that level of physicality and explosiveness to the game on Saturday evening, as on a wet and windy night with a pitch providing the consistency of rice-pudding, the game is likely to descend into an arm wrestle.  Here, the bulldozing short carries, upper-body strength and leg drive are likely to be key as each side tries to claw their way forward, and both number 8s will be central to that effort.  Denton can be a beast but it is a sporadic ability as we saw with his quiet display in Dublin last weekend, whilst big Billy Vunipola needs to kick on from where he left off last Saturday.  The youngster was irresistible with the ball in hand and crashed through defenders on a regular basis, but – thanks to the conditions – he won't be able to build up the same speed in Edinburgh as he did in Paris.  The battle for the hard yards will be pivotal to the outcome, and these two giants are the key players.

Prediction

As disappointing as Scotland were last week, it’s hard to see them being as poor at home this time around, even if their experienced captain has been replaced by a debutant.  With the weather set to be at its hospitable best, England will have dark memories of 2000, 2006 and 2008 as they were turned over in an arm wrestle in the rain – and this Saturday could be set to be even more scrappy, with the usually fantastic Murrayfield pitch still in a bad way after a parasite infestation led to the whole ground being sprayed with garlic.  But despite recent results and the fact that the pitch might smell like a Frenchman’s burp, England shouldn’t be too intimidated.  I think that their back is bigger, more mobile and more physical than the Scots, and if they use their frustrations of last weekend to spur them on, it should be enough to overcome the ‘anti-England’ factor that so often spurs on the men in blue.  Owen Farrell also showed impressive game management in the second half of the France game and I think that if he continues that and kicks his goals, the visitors should win a tense encounter in the final quarter as the Scottish pack tires.  England by 9 points.

 

What else is happening in the second weekend of the Six Nations?

Ireland v Wales – In the game of the weekend, the press is doing their very best to turn it into a personal duel between Irish legend Brian O’Driscoll and Welsh coach Warren Gatland, after the New Zealander ensured he was removed from every Irishman’s Christmas card list by dropping the centre for the final Lions Test in Australia.  I expect this one to be a bit sparky between two sides who have enjoyed a great rivalry of late, but I can see the Welsh just pipping it with superior firepower out wide.  Wales by 3.

France v Italy:  Embarrassed by Italy last year, Les Bleus will be in no mood to let the same result happen again.  The Azzurri were impressive in their narrow defeat to the Welsh last week, but I get the impression that confidence for the hosts will be high after sneaking a sensational win over England, and I think they should win comfortably.  France by 11.

Aviva Premiership

Alas, as I am a mere mortal with one set of hands (and I type slower than my grandmother - who doesn't have a computer) and a full time job, I don't have time to bash out a full preview, but here's a whizz through the weekend's action:

Worcester Warriors v Leicester Tigers:  Worcester are still looking for their first win but I don't think it will come against a Tigers side fired up by poor run of form and boosted by England half-backs Ben Youngs and Toby Flood.  Tigers by 10.

Sale Sharks v Gloucester:  I can't see the Cherry and Whites turning around their disappointing season in Salford on a Friday night.  The Sharks look confident and that should show.  Sale by 9.

Bath v Newcastle Falcons:  Bath are relatively free of international call ups and should have no problems dispatching the Falcons, despite the Geordies' physicality up front.  Bath by 19.

Saracens v London Irish:  Sarries still look the team to beat at Allianz Park and despite London Irish certainly looking an improved force, I can't see them coming close on Saturday, even with the hosts missing big names.  Sarries by 15.

Exeter Chiefs v Northampton Saints:  In the game of the weekend, a severely depleted Saints side will take on the Chiefs at Sandy Park.  I can see the hosts nicking this one as the visitors struggle for continuity having lost so many to international duty.  Chiefs by 3.

Harlequins v London Wasps:  This London derby should be an entertaining one with lots of tries on show, as long as the weather holds out.  Despite the loss of the captain and their talismanic scrum half, the hosts should have enough about them for the win.  Quins by 5.