Six Nations Preview - England v Wales

Lies, damned lies and statistics.  If I’m being honest, I’ve never really understood the purpose of that saying – I assume it’s to highlight how statistics rarely tell the whole story – but we’ve had industrial amounts of all 3 crammed down our throats in the build up to this weekend.  And with good reason too – it’s England v Wales.  At some point in the mid-noughties, the clash between St George and St David eclipsed the Calcutta Cup game as being the match-up that everyone looks out for when the Six Nations fixtures are announced.  With a rivalry that has developed to arguably its fiercest in over a century of competition between the two countries, the media has wasted no opportunities in spinning stories of revenge, 1000 year old grudges and just plain old hatred.  All of it exaggerated nonsense; all of it brilliant theatre.

The lie that we’ve been told by the Welsh camp is that Warren Gatland has been “building the players up so that they have the self-belief that they can win at Twickenham”.  He needs to do no such thing.  If this Welsh side – a team that has won on the last 3 occasions they have met England, that has won at Twickenham in 2 of their last 3 Championship visits and one that contains 12 Test Lions in the starting XV alone – does not already believe that they can beat their hosts, then they are suffering from the biggest instance of delusion since Brian Moore walked into a Wales Supporters Club meeting with an autograph pen at the ready.

The damned lie has come from the England camp though, who have insisted that Sunday’s match at Twickenham will not be about revenge for the pasting they suffered in Cardiff last year; that result will merely be a benchmark on how far they have progressed.  This is nonsense, and we all know it.  Revenge is one of the most basic and powerful urges we have, and you can bet your Nana’s pension that Andy Farrell will be working the men in white up into a frenzy prior to kick off, with abundant references to the 30 – 3 drubbing.

And then there’s the statistics.  All very interesting stuff, but absolutely none of it really makes any sense or provides an indication on how the game might go.  Take the table below as an example:

After Rd. 3	England	Wales	Ireland	France	Scotland	Italy
Metres made	1503	868	1117	1293	859	1167
Clean Breaks	23	9	13	24	11	10
Offloads	35	23	14	52	33	31
Defenders Beaten	78	35	58	69	42	40

From that, it would seem that England are the top attacking side in the Six Nations, with Wales the worst – in particular, England have made 70% more metres with the ball in hand and beaten twice as many defenders, making twice as many clean breaks in the process.  This isn’t the boring England everybody loves to poke fun at.  But to put these figures into context, it is rather surprising to read into the numbers surrounding Wales’ win over France at the Millennium Stadium.  In that game the Welsh were dominant, oozing physical threat and dismantling the French pack, forcing Les Bleus to look more clueless than their head coach in a hopelessly inept display.  And yet, the visitors made just under twice as many metres, beat over twice as many defenders and made 6 clean breaks to Wales’ 2.  And yet the consensus is that they were dominated.  You see, what the stats don’t show are the shoulder-busting carries of Jamie Roberts, the quick-handed steals by Sam Warburton and the momentum-sapping chop tackles from Dan Lydiate.

And that’s exactly what England will be dealing with on Sunday.  Fans of the home side may look to the above table as a source of comfort, but the players know that what they are facing can’t be presented in numbers.  Stuart Lancaster has made the right call in keeping his starting line-up together, aside from the enforced change of Ben Morgan coming in for the injured Billy Vunipola.  Luckily, Morgan is a man in a similar mould to the Saracens wrecking ball, and he will be a key weapon of the England pack as they look to take advantage of a superior carrying game.  Whilst Wales rely on their backs to generate thrust over the gainline, England like to attack the fringes with the speed and power of their pack before putting the ball wide.  They must be accurate in their cleanout to keep Sam Warburton and Toby Faletau quiet but if they can succeed here, they can generate space outwide where Jack Nowell and Johnny May, despite not being the biggest, will fancy their chances running forward into open spaces.

Wales, meanwhile, have fielded an incredibly experienced and powerful side, packed with leaders all over the field.  They are exponents of “Warren-ball” – Gatland’s infamous tactic that may be about as subtle as a Jonah Lomu handoff, but is extremely effective.  It is essentially about getting their big carriers – North, Roberts, Davies and Hibbard – all running hard in spaces, meaning they look to go wide early and get their big men into the wider channels.  The problem for defences is that, once you start going backwards, it is almost impossible to reset your defence properly without conceding a penalty or leaving a huge gap to be exploited.  However, the visitors will be aware that they are facing one of the best rush defences in the tournament and so the handling must be slick, and the lines accurate, or they may find themselves caught behind the gainline.

There are a fantastic amount of tactical battles all over the park, and it would be impossible to go through them all without breaking my laptop in excitement.  However, the scrum is sure to come under scrutiny as an area of potential Welsh dominance, as will the lineout, as an area where England can get the upper hand.  The use of substitutes will be interesting too, especially seeing as Lancaster has made what I consider to be a mistake in leaving the returning Manu Tuilagi out – a man who can make a potentially game changing impact and whose simple presence on the bench could lead the Welsh midfield (the returning Davies in particular) to hold back just 5% in anticipation of his introduction.  But above all, I can see this game being settled on line speed.  The battle between the two Lions defensive coaches is worth the admission price alone, and England will be well aware that if they can shut the likes of Roberts down behind the gainline with their ‘swarm’ defence, then Wales will struggle to execute a plan B, as they showed against Ireland.  Get it wrong, and they will find themselves going very backwards, very fast.

But above all this game is about primal passion.  With claims of arrogance flying on both sides of the border, both teams and sets of supporters would love nothing more than to earn bragging rights for the next year.  And with the next time these two meet at Twickenham scheduled to be in the Group Stages of the World Cup 2015, it’s the chance to lay down a real statement.  And it’s all this that makes all the hyperbole before kick-off OK – we love it; the lies, the damned lies and the statistics.

But there’s just one statistic that will really matter come Sunday night.

England Team News

Gloucester's Ben Morgan replaces the injured Billy Vunipola at number eight for England's Six Nations match against Wales at Twickenham on Sunday.  Exeter flanker Tom Johnson, 31, who won his last cap in 2012, is on the bench, where Stuart Lancaster has resisted the urge to bring in either Manu Tuilagi or Marland Yarde for Alex Goode.

Starting Line up:  M Brown (Harlequins); J Nowell (Exeter), L Burrell (Northampton), B Twelvetrees (Gloucester), J May (Gloucester); O Farrell (Saracens), D Care (Harlequins); J Marler (Harlequins), D Hartley (Northampton), D Wilson (Bath), J Launchbury (Wasps), C Lawes (Northampton), T Wood (Northampton), C Robshaw (Harlequins, capt), B Morgan (Gloucester).

Subs: T Youngs (Leicester), M Vunipola (Saracens), H Thomas (Sale), D Attwood (Bath), T Johnson (Exeter), L Dickson (Northampton), G Ford (Bath), A Goode (Saracens).

Key Player

Ben Morgan.  The big Gloucester number 8 seems to reserve his best form for England, and fans will be hoping that this is the case on Sunday.  Off the bench, Morgan has been incredibly destructive, making big carries and always looking to offload – not dissimilar to the man he replaces, Billy Vunipola – but his work with the ball in hand and ability to break tackles is never in question.  His workrate, however, is.  Vunipola was England's top carrier, and he went flat out for 60-odd minutes in the knowledge that he would be replaced by the Gloucester man with a quarter of the game still to play.  With no recognised explosive ball-carrier on the bench, Morgan will have to get through the same amount of work as Vunipola but push himself through the full 80 minutes – a real test of his fitness and conditioning.  England have a faster, stronger ball-carrying pack that will target the fringes and Rhys Priestland's channel, and Morgan must be at the heart of this effort all game.

Wales Team News

Jonathan Davies is back in the Wales side for the first time since November to face England in the Six Nations at Twickenham on Sunday.  The Scarlets centre has played only two halves of rugby since suffering a chest injury against South Africa.  Davies, 25, is one of two changes from the side which beat France 27-6, with lock Alun Wyn Jones, 28, back after recovering from a foot infection.  Rhys Webb remains at scrum-half ahead of Mike Phillips, who is on the bench.   There is one positional change in the backline. With Davies returning to partner Jamie Roberts at centre, George North reverts to the wing with versatile Scarlet Liam Williams back on the bench.

 

Starting Line up: Leigh Halfpenny (Blues); Alex Cuthbert (Blues), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Jamie Roberts (Racing Metro), George North (Northampton); Rhys Priestland (Scarlets), Rhys Webb (Ospreys); Gethin Jenkins (Blues), Richard Hibbard (Ospreys), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Luke Charteris (Perpignan), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Dan Lydiate (Racing Metro), Sam Warburton (Blues, capt), Taulupe Faletau (Dragons).

Subs: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Paul James (Bath Rugby), Rhodri Jones (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Mike Phillips (Racing Metro), Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Liam Williams (Scarlets).

Key Player

 

Jonathan Davies.  Coming back after 3 months out injured is never easy, let alone coming straight back into one of the most intense Test match environments around.  Davies has shown no ill-effects of his pectoral injury in either his run out for the Scarlets or indeed in training this week, and he will be relishing the chance to re-unite himself with Jamie 'Desperate Dan' Roberts.  His power and surprising speed and footwork are his chief weapons, but it was his awareness in the midfield that really set him apart over the summer and in the early autumn; and that's the part that may take a while to sharpen up.  Expect England to briefly test out his shoulder with the hard running Luther Burrell, but also expect them to try and exploit any rustiness with decoys, dragging Davies in and putting Brown or the blindside winger on his outside.  If he gets his match sharpness back quickly, England will find their ability to find space out wide very limited.

 

 

Key Battle

I'm going to cheat, like any good flanker, and pick my top 3 because, to be honest, picking just 1 would do the game a disservice.

 

Joe Marler v Adam Jones:  The Lions Test veteran had Marler on toast last year, but the Quins man has improved his scrummaging substantially this year, whilst Jones' powers have reportedly been on the wane.  It should be an even contest this time around that both men will fancy their chances in, but whoever gets the upper hand in the scrum will set a crucial platform for their side.

 

Joe Launchbury v Alun Wyn Jones:  Launchbury was bullied by Jones and the gang last year, but now the Wasps lock looks like the real deal.  His workrate against Ireland and physicality in the loose were phenomenal, whilst the returning Jones provides muscular leadership in the tight exchanges.  The crucial lineout battle aside, these two are set for one hell of a contest in the murky world of the breakdown.

 

Billy Twelvetrees v Jamie Roberts:  Part of me hates Jamie Roberts.  He's a world-class international rugby player, a qualified doctor, good-looking and, by all accounts, a top bloke.  I can only assume he has a microscopic penis to even things out.  But Billy Twelvetrees' immediate concern (hopefully) is how to stop Roberts before he breaks the gainline – he will need to show lightning line speed and chop him down quickly before the Welsh can build any momentum.  I think it's not stretching it too far to say that whoever wins this individual battle, could effectively win their side the match.

 

 

Prediction

 

With the scores tied at 56-all in the winners of matches between these two countries, you get some indication of how tight this one is.  Wales might not be at their sharpest but the experience they have in their side is on another level to England – plus they have the advantage of being able to select from an almost injury-free squad.  The same can't be said for the hosts, who are still missing 5 Test Lions through injury, lack of fitness, and there seems to be a growing nervousness amongst England fans that their side won't have the experience to deal with the physical Welsh onslaught.  I disagree, however.  If England get their linespeed right, they can shut down the Welsh game-plan before it gets going, and I suspect Andy Farrell will have drilled that into them all week.  I'm expecting a close game, but I'm leaning towards home advantage and a thirst for revenge giving a fired up England a win at Twickenham on Sunday.  England by 6.

 

Let's see what's happening elsewhere in the Six Nations this weekend:

Scotland v France:  80 minutes makes a lot of difference.  2 weeks ago, you wouldn't have given Scotland a fart in the wind's chance of beating the French, but after the last round's fixtures they must surely fancy their chances.  And without Picamoles and Fofana, I suspect the French may struggle…but still sneak a win.  France by 2.

Ireland v Italy:  Despite the defeat to England, Ireland are really in the driving seat now for this year's title.  They should be confident in facing up to an Italian side that hasn't won away in the Championship for an incredible 17 matches, and are without their talismanic number 8, Sergio Parisse.  I predict a comfortable win for the men in green.  Ireland by 13.