Expectation can be a very nasty thing. Which is why I try to avoid it most of the time by setting the expectation level very low – that way, I can only succeed. By way of example, I was forced to play cricket with my office against another office the other day. Now, I like cricket, but I am hopeless at it – as in, truly abysmal. Batting, fielding, bowling, the lot of it. I made sure that everybody knew this before the game started and therefore, when I did bowl a dot ball and hit a whole seven runs, I was roundly applauded and congratulated on my achievements; I was still awful, but not as horrifically bad as I had made out. But England are finding what it's like on the other side of the coin in New Zealand right now.
When the men in white arrived three weeks ago, there was a
suitable sense of dread in the air; a view that we might be in for another
'tour from hell', especially as we were missing half our front line players for
the First Test. One very gutsy
performance later – which may have yielded a win had it not been for some contentious
refereeing decisions – and the feeling changed.
Maybe England could pull off
the unthinkable and score a series win in New Zealand. Of course, we all know what happened last
week, as the visitors were undone by 30 minutes of All Black brilliance, but it
was the reaction that surprised me – the first rumblings of criticism, despite
the difference being just 1 point. It's
the heavy price you pay for expectation – but Stuart Lancaster's side wouldn't
have it any other way.
The All Blacks are used to it, of course – they are the
benchmark. They have the luxury of being
able to lose veteran Conrad Smith to injury and still be able to bring in his
ready-made replacement, Malakai Fekitoa.
Now, this kid is dynamite (see below) and is another example of the
frankly unbelievable All Black conveyor belt of talent, and I have no doubt
that Fekitoa will eventually become a fixture in the side. But there is no doubt Smith is a loss – he's
a captain of the backline and is the glue that holds the defensive line
together; Ma'a Nonu must now step up.
But it's another Smith, Ben, who holds the key to the All Black magic –
if he is given front foot ball and space, especially off turnover ball, he will
carve any side apart. England must be
wary, and that's before they even start worrying about the return of the marauding
and inspirational Kieran Read, who adds another element to their pack's
attacking game.
The spine of the Kiwi side remains the same though, but the
same can't be said about England who have completely rejigged – partly down to injury,
partly down to form – but in my view this is their best line up of the Test
series. Manu Tuilagi is recalled from
the wing and starts at centre, where he caused so much trouble for the Kiwis in
his last appearance, when he shrugged off Fekitoa within seconds of the
Highlanders man getting onto the pitch.
He'll be charged with doing more of the same tomorrow morning in order
to give the youngster a rough ride, but it's in defence where England need to
be ultra-sharp. Their blitz lost its zip
during that 30 minute period as heads went down and you cannot, under any
circumstances, allow this All Blacks side to run at you. This game will be about leaders standing up
and driving the side through and, although the loss of Geoff Parling is a big
one in terms of his influence and ability, this is the game where the captains
need to stand up and take the game by the scruff of the neck.
Because England does expect.
And they've earned that burden.
New Zealand Team
News
Steve Hansen makes just two changes to his line-up, with the
rather handy Kieran Read deemed to be fully fit after a concussion related
injury. The number 8 slots into the back
row with Jerome Kaino moving to 6, with Liam Messam unlucky to drop to the
bench. Elsewhere, injury to Conrad Smith means that
raw talent Malakai Fekitoa earns his first start in an All Black jersey having
only earned his first cap in the first test.
Ryan Crotty comes onto the bench.
Starting Line-up: Ben Smith, Cory Jane, Malakai Fekitoa,
Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea, Aaron Cruden, Aaron Smith; Tony Woodcock, Dane Coles,
Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Samuel Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw
(capt), Kieran Read
Subs: Keven
Mealamu, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumuina, Patrick Tuipulotu, Liam Messam, TJ
Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Ryan Crotty
Key Player
Malakai Fekitoa. It's
not easy to fill the boots of Conrad 'the Snake' Smith, but if anybody can it's
this kid. He's got jet-fuelled boots and
good upper body power, making him the kind of player who can make the hard
yards and also create something from nothing as well. He's got a beautiful, swerving running style
that is a nightmare for defenders, and so England will be closing his space
down quickly, meaning he'll have to keep his head under pressure. Easier said than done when Manu Tuilagi is the
bloke charging up to put you onto the ground, and Fekitoa will certainly have a
baptism of fire in defence as well, where he will have to focus on his communication
with Nonu to avoid leaving gaps for Tuilagi and Eastmond to exploit.
Freddie Burns will start at fly-half for England in one of eight
changes to the side for Saturday's third and final Test against New Zealand in
Hamilton. Burns will replace the injured
Owen Farrell and is preferred to Danny Cipriani, who starts on the bench. Ben Youngs, Chris Ashton, Kyle Eastmond,
Dylan Hartley, and Billy Vunipola all return, with Manu Tuilagi moving back
into the centres after the wing-switch failed to yield the desired results. Stuart Lancaster has also been rocked by the loss
of the inspirational Geoff Parling as a late change, meaning Courtney Lawes
effectively replaces him despite originally being intended to step in for Joe
Launchbury.
Starting Line-up: Mike Brown, Chris Ashton, Manu Tuilagi,
Kyle Eastmond, Marland Yarde, Freddie Burns, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Dylan
Hartley, David Wilson, Courtney Lawes, Geoff Parling, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw
(capt), Billy Vunipola
Subs: Rob Webber,
Matt Mullan, Kieran Brookes, Joe Launchbury, Ben Morgan, Lee Dickson, Danny
Cipriani, Luther Burrell
Key Player
Courtney Lawes. We didn’t
see too much of the human missile last week but Lawes ended the season in
sensational style putting in a man-of-the-match (in my book) display against
Saracens in the Premiership final. He'll
have been frustrated at him limited opportunities so far on this Tour, but now
he has a chance to really cause some carnage.
We saw last weekend how fluent the All Blacks can be when they get into
their stride – Lawes' role has got to be to hunt Cruden down and force him to
play deeper and deeper for fear of getting hit with the ball, forcing the All
Blacks back behind the gainline and giving the England defence more time to
organise.
Kieran Read v Billy Vunipola. The importance of Read cannot be
underestimated. The 2013 IRB World
Player of the Year combines a superb athleticism with one of the sharpest
brains in the sport, making him equally comfortable at taking the ball into
contact as well as running smart lines and freeing his unnervingly dexterous
arms for the offload. He's up against
the younger Vunipola brother from Saracens, and Billy is – to be fair – a slightly
different sort of 8. You won't find
Vunipola attempting grubbers or fizzing 20 metre passes across the midfield,
but you will see him carrying hard, drawing in at least 2 or 3 defenders and
searching for the support runner on his shoulder. Read is very much a link man between the
aggressive play of the tight five and the more fluent runners out wide, and
England will need to target him and test his sharpness after his injury if they
are to throw a spanner into the All Black machine. Billy, meanwhile, could do with taking a leaf
out of Read's book and start looking to influence the game away from the heavy
traffic – he is a powerful runner around the fringes, but we saw in the Six Nations
that he is even more devastating in the wider channels where he can open up
some big gaps.
Both sets of coaches – and players – have spent a lot of the
week proclaiming that this one is not a 'dead rubber'. It may be hard to argue in the context of the
series, which has been lost, but there is a hell of a lot riding on this for
both sides going forward. I think if
England come close and lose again, then there really will be a nagging doubt in
their mind about whether or not they really are good enough to take on the best
in the world. The Kiwis will be wanting
to build and build from now until the World Cup, and with raw talent like
Fekitoa coming in, this is the ideal time to introduce them to a winning
environment. A lot of people seem to
think that New Zealand have this in the bag, but I'm not so sure and I think
England might just need – and want this – a fraction more. I've picked the All Blacks by big margins for
both previous Tests, and England have come far closer than I would have
envisaged. With that in mind – sod it –
I'm going to go for the rarest of occasions…an away win in New Zealand. England
by 2.
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