Premiership Preview - London Welsh v Newcastle Falcons

I think it's fair to say that life at the bottom of the Premiership tends to be a bit of a dog fight.  OK, last year Worcester Warriors went down with the faintest of whimpers, but generally the battles to avoid the dreaded drop are just as enthralling and dramatic as the headline-hogging race for the title (which I am guilty of favouring just as much as the next person).  Think back and there have been some classic nail-biters over the years – remember Warriors v Northampton back in 2005?  It was an almost winner-takes-all (read: loser-goes-down) encounter, and Saints' fly half was Shane Drahm, who was joining Worcester the following season.  Drahm was effectively kicking his future employers into the division below, but a last gasp result elsewhere meant that Harlequins went down instead.  It was drama of the highest order, if not always of the highest quality.

It may still be early on in the season but Saturday's fixture between two of the basement-boys already has a feel of being a bit of an 8 pointer, a match which could decide who will be making the long trip down to the Championship next season.  London Welsh, the hosts, are of course the new boys this year but to say that their start has been difficult is like saying that Scarlet Johansson is reasonably attractive.  With 5 games gone and 249 points conceded, Welsh simply haven't looked like a Premiership quality side.  Worryingly, over 50% of those points have been conceded in the final quarter, indicating a gulf in conditioning and/or squad depth, as substitutes are brought on.  But in attack as well, there's been difficulties – too often disjointed and slow, perhaps an inevitable outcome with so many new faces involved this year.  That said, there are rays of hope – they scored a bonus point for four tries at Bath (where Leicester were nilled) and so they do have the capability of scoring tries – that much is clear by the number of experienced, quality players they have in their backline.  But the big question will be if their pack can provide a decent platform, quick ball, and continue to do so for 80 minutes.

The feeling at their visitors, the Falcons, wasn't too different a week ago; all doom and gloom, clinging on to faint glimmers of hope.  With 21 consecutive Premiership defeats, tipped to go down by many at the start of the year and without a win for almost 12 months, you can see why morale wasn't flying – but a superb 29 -24 win over Exeter at home last week may have changed the tide.  Yes, there are questions on the quality and depth of the Newcastle squad, but in fairness there were encouraging spores of hope before that long-awaited win.  Last season the Falcons were simply dire, seeking to grind out wins and losing in uninspired fashion, but at least this term they have been expansive and dangerous – if lacking a bit of accuracy in the finish and remaining porous in defence.  Perhaps, though, a corner has been turned, and they can now start genuinely competing with the big boys.  It will be up to Welsh to kill that momentum and remind the Falcons that they’re not safe yet.

Because, as assistant coach Matthew Ferguson alluded to earlier this week, this dog still has a nasty bite.

 

London Welsh Team News

London Welsh make five changes for the Premiership visit of Newcastle Falcons, all of them in the forwards.  Pablo Henn and Nathan Morris start at loosehead and hooker, Matt Corker comes into the second row, while Richard Thorpe returns at openside with Chris Hala'ufia starting at number eight.

Starting Line up:  Jewell; Stegmann, Reynolds, May (capt), Scott; Barkley, Weepu; Henn, Morris, Vea; Corker, Down; Browne Thorpe, Hala'ufia.

Subs: Vella, Cahill, Gilding, Schofield, Pienaar, Lewis, Roberts, Crane.

Key Player

Piri Weepu.  Yes, he looks like a hobbit and, yes, he could lose a couple of pounds, but anyone who has seen Weepu play throughout the years will know that he has a natural ability which very, very few can claim to have.  For the All Blacks and in Super 15 he has the knack of finding and creating space, despite not being the quickest, with his eyes and hands.  We've seen precious little of that magic so far because he's been busy rummaging around bodies of players, trying in vain to provide his backline with some quality ammunition.  But eventually, the opportunities will come and – when they do – he can't afford to be rusty.

 

Newcastle Falcons Team News

Dean Richards has understandably (but boringly, for the purposes of my write-up) named the same starting 15 which picked up their first win in almost a year against Exeter last weekend.  He'll be hoping his side has enough wind in their sails after the last round to get a similar result in Oxford on Saturday.

Starting Line-up:  Tait; Sinoti, Tiesi, Powell, Cato; Socino, Tipuna; Brookes, Lawson, S Wilson; Green, Barrow; M. Wilson, Welch (capt), Hogg.

Subs: Hawkins, Rogers, Tomaszczyk, Furno, Mayhew, Blair, Clegg, Catterick.

Key Player

Will Welch.  I say this in the most respectful and complementary way possible, but Welch strikes me as the ultimate club man.  International honours may not be on the agenda – but who knows what the future holds, in fairness – but Welch is the character that every team needs; tough, uncompromising, a natural leader and – critically – he very, very rarely has a poor game.  But he is a classic 'all-rounder' flanker and one area where Welsh have been continually battered is at the breakdown, where they've been unable to generate quick ball.  Welch will be targeting that Welsh ball (crikey this is getting confusing) and aiming to be the first on the scene at any tackle situation to frustrate them even more.

 

Key Battle

Olly Barkley v Juan Pablo Socino.  It goes without saying that every point counts in a relegation dog fight.  Barkley has years of experience at the top and has the head to slot pressure kicks, but with precious few attempts to keep his game ticking over, you have to wonder what affect that will have on his technique and mentality.  Socino, on the other hand, has had plenty of attempts, but a bit of squiffy return with the boot.  He's a wonderfully compact and balanced player who provides plenty of threat with the ball in hand, but he effectively cost his side the game with his inaccuracy off the tee.  I have a feeling that – for the most part – this game will be tight and will depend hugely on momentum.  The ability to keep that scoreboard ticking over will be critically important to that.

 

Prediction

Reading the press, you'd be forgiven for thinking it was only the 'top' teams that suffered from problems this year, with Harlequins underperforming and the majority of Leicester's side broken into tiny pieces, but I always think that does a massive disservice to the clubs that scrap it out at the wrong end of the table.  Every point is precious and you're expected to lose every game – it's a hideous pressure and the supporters of both clubs should be commended for showing some real backbone over the last couple of seasons.  But the pressure for this one is well and truly on Welsh for this one – yes, they've conceded on average 50 points a game, but if they can't beat their relegation rivals at home, I don't think there'll be a way back, even at this stage of the season.  Falcons have a win and, I suspect, it will propel them onwards to greater things.  Falcons by 9.

And in this weekend's other games?

Leicester Tigers v Harlequins:  Neither of these sides have had the starts they would want, and there's an oddly 'mid-table' feel to the clash.  With Quins out of kilter – despite their romp against Welsh last week – and Tigers in the depths of another injury crisis, it's a difficult one to call but it should still be a thriller as always; a thriller I suspect the visitors will win, taking advantage of their hosts' shot confidence.  Quins by 4.

Exeter Chiefs v London Irish:  Irish have impressed me this season but the Chiefs had a bit of a wake-up call last week, falling to the Falcons in Newcastle.  I just suspect that they will be up for setting the record straight at Sandy Park this weekend and should have too much quality for Irish.  Chiefs by 8.

Saracens v Gloucester:  Sarries will be hurting after losing their 100% record last week and I expect them to win comfortably against the Cherry and Whites, despite the fact that the visitors recorded a good win over Leicester last weekend.  Sarries by 14.

Northampton Saints v Sale Sharks:  This one does have the potential to be a banana skin for Saints, with the Sharks looking dangerous in attack and notoriously aggressive at the breakdown, but they should have too much class in the ranks to fall foul of an upset.  Saints by 12.

Wasps v Bath:  Wasps are another side who, like Irish, have caught the eye with some impressive displays and surprising results this year – but a combination of off-field drama and a Bath side too hot to handle at the moment will see them fall to a home defeat.  Bath by 9.