Heineken Cup Review - Saracens 46 - 6 Clermont Auvergne

He just wants to be friends...

I have a confession to make – despite my many (generally useless) gifts, foretelling the future is not one of them.  I happen to think my score predictions are generally pretty decent – during the Six Nations, I got 2 of England’s 5 games dead right – and if I’m wrong, I’m generally reasonably close.  As in, within a score or so.  10 points at worst.  Not 45.  That’s what I like to call a ‘Guscott call’.

However, I sank to new depths on Saturday as Saracens scaled unimaginable heights against the most illustrious of European opponents, Clermont Auvergne.  The French giants have never lifted the Heineken Cup and yet have been hailed by many as, unofficially, the best team in Europe over 3 years.  With local and foreign talent scattered across the pitch, a brutally physical pack combined with an electrifying backline, it is easy to see how many had them as narrow favourites in the build up to the quarter final at Twickenham.  I myself had them down as victors by 5 points, because I could not shake the memory of Saracens being bullied against Toulouse from my mind – if they struggled against a far-from-vintage Toulouse side, how would they fare against a Clermont side approaching their prime?

We got that answer pretty early on as Clermont started the game in glorious West London sunshine.  After a tentative opening which was characterised by some marvellous kicking from Owen Farrell and Brock James, Saracens exploded into life.  Attacking the short side on the left, Alex Goode and Schalk Brits timed their passes to perfection to put Brad Barritt in through a gap, and the bullocking centre found left wing Chris Ashton marauding on his inside shoulder, allowing the England winger to finish well by picking an in-and-out line.  This was classic Ashton and a classic poachers try, giving Saracens had a 7-0 lead, following Alex Goode’s magnificent nudge (with Farrell handing over kicking-duties whilst he was taking precautions with his recently-recovered foot) after just 8 minutes.  Well now, I thought, a Sarries headstart should at least make it interesting.

Clermont responded quickly, running through the phases without making many yards as the Saracens line-speed, led by Brits and Jacques Burger, put them under pressure.  Nevertheless, Neil de Kock gave away an offside penalty and Morgan Parra added 3 points.  The French side didn’t seem worried; they would bide their time, and surely their backline flair would tell eventually.

But not immediately.  Clermont made a complete hash of clearing their lines from the restart as James, under pressure, shovelled the ball to fullback Lee Byrne, whose kick was superbly charged down by the onrushing Mako Vunipola, now officially the world’s largest sprinter.  James and Marcello Bosch both competed for the loose ball as it cannoned off the loosehead’s hands, with the fly half appearing the deliberately knock the ball out of play at the second attempt.  Referee Nigel Owens certainly thought this was the case, rightly showing James a yellow card but also, surprisingly awarding a penalty try.  I thought that this was one of the few decisions Owens, the best referee in the world, got wrong; for me, there was no way of telling that a try would probably have been scored if James hadn’t have knocked it into touch.  But it was cynical, and you could argue that Sarries deserved their 14 – 3 lead.

No matter – with Owens reffing, one thing you are guaranteed is an open game, which is right up Clermont’s street, even with just 14 men.  In fact, Clermont began to play their best rugby during the 10 minutes James was off.  Short pick and goes were winding the sinbin clock down, although the strong fringe defence was not giving any change, but whenever they attempted to go wide they were hounded and smashed to pieces by an incredibly aggressive defensive line.  The Clermont players were starting to look out for Burger, who had already weighed in with some monumental hits, but they did find some joy down the left as Byrne and then Jamie Cudmore, of all people, galloped to within 5 metres of the Saracens line.  From there, the Clermont pack hammered at the Saracens line, again met by outstanding defence, before swinging the ball wide to Benson Stanley, who coasted in for a try – only to be denied because of an unnecessary decoy block by Damien Chouly.  Sarries had escaped – but was the door now open, with James returning to the fray?

It certainly seemed to be creaking open.  A penalty conceded by Burger after more strong work by the men in white’s pack brought it back to an 8 point game.  But 5 minutes later, the door was slammed shut again.  A magnificent turnover by Brits in the midfield gave Mako Vunipola the chance to rumble on, and from there Chris Ashton made a sharp dart down the right before throwing an inside pass.  De Kock, the intended recipient, was held back and couldn’t take the ball which cannoned off the onrushing Farrell’s leg and over the tryline for the England fly half to dive on.  Everyone had stopped for the knock on, but replays showed the Saracens man had taken his hands away at the crucial moment and allowed the ball to hit his knee, meaning the try stood.  Another superb conversion, and Sarries held a 21 -6 lead.  

Still, any moment now, Clermont would explode into top gear and set the Twickenham pitch alight.  Surely.  But instead, they began to look a bit worried.  They started trying to play from deep but they were met, with each step, by a wall of black and red, usually fronted by the Picasso-painting-esque face of Burger, and their physical dominance was underlined when Ashton – renowned for being as tough as wet paper in the tackle – hammered the giant Napolini Nalaga into touch.  The Londoners dominated the remainder of the half, earned another Goode penalty, and went into the break at 24 – 6 to the good.

There was a stunned silence at Twickenham – even the Saracens fans were shocked at what they had seen.  Europe’s best club side, with all their deadly runners, bullied into submission in every contact.  We were waiting for the French outfit to finally hit their stride, but even a fully-firing Clermont side would struggle against this blood-thirsty defence.  And this theme continued in the second half, with the wolf pack tearing into the opposition with unrestrained ferocity – there was fear in the eyes of every Clermont player, and this wasn’t fear of losing even though they were 18 points down.  This was a fear of getting hurt.

Clermont were trying to desperately to get some form of upper hand in the game – through offloads or kicking – but they were being matched and bettered in almost every department.  In fact, it was Saracens who looked the more dangerous by far, as Billy Vunipola thundered 30 metres with a huge break in the midfield and helped get his side to within 10 metres of the line before De Kock knocked on.  It was only a brief respite though, as Bosch stepped up to land a trademark monster penalty from halfway to had another 3 points of onto the Sarries tally.

The French side now looked defeated and miserable in the glorious Twickenham sunshine and, after an hour, they finally imploded, fed up of being dismantled 5 metres behind the gainline in every possession, fed up of the sight of Burger, Brits, Vunipola and Barritt running up to re-arrange their rib-cages.  Another smart tackle, this time by Farrell, caused Ti’i Paulo to spill the ball and allowed Ashton to show his predatory instincts and footballing skills to grubber the loose ball ahead and touchdown for his 2^nd score.  34 – 6, game over – and everyone, myself included, finally realised we weren’t going to see the expected miraculous comeback from Clermont, simply because Saracens wouldn’t allow it.

Burger was substituted, having made a ludicrous 27 tackles, but Ashton wasn’t done yet.  The England winger surged through a gap in the midfield before throwing a gorgeous pass out to substitute Tim Streather, who fed fellow replacement Chris Wyles via Barritt for the American to touch down for a magnificent try.  It summed up a superb performance by Ashton, not only had he shown commitment and physicality in defence, he had shown conviction and confidence in his decisions – something that had been lacking of late.  He made 81 metres in just 10 carries, with 4 clean breaks and 2 tries, whilst his illustrious opposite number Sitiveni Sivatu (who I picked as his key opponent), managed just 12 metres from 19 carries.

There was still time for Streather to sneak over on the right after slick hands from Farrell and Goode to add the final nail into the Clermont coffin to leave a final score of 46 – 6.  Against Clermont.  The highest ever semi-final points total.  The highest ever semi-final winning margin.  An unbelievable score, a remarkable score.  A statement. 

It’s not exaggerating to put this display up there with the best ever performances by an English club in Europe, along with the likes of Harlequins away against Toulouse 2 years ago and Leicester away to Munster in 2007.  People may not have had predicted anything like this before, but you can pretty safely bet that their opponents, Toulon, won’t be writing them off in Cardiff in 4 weeks’ time.

 And in the other Heineken Cup Semi Final?

Toulon 24 – 16 Munster:  Toulon had just too much power for Munster in Marseille, running out comfortable winners in the end.  The boot of Johnny Wilkinson, with 6 penalties and a drop goal, plus a long range effort from Delon Armitage, proved enough for the Galacticos of Europe, even though Munster scored the only try of the game through Simon Zebo.

You can find my team of the weekend up on The Rugby Blog, too.

Heineken Cup Preview - Saracens v Clermont Auvergne

 

I think it’s fair to say that we’ve all had a giggle at Sarries’ expense in the past.  The slightly cringe-worthy references to the wolfpack, the well-publicised team-bonding trips to beer festivals and the ear-bleedingly bad songs.  In fact, just the jingles alone are enough to draw snide remarks and mirth from detractors, but the shocking reality is that Saracens are deadly serious.  I personally think all of the above is harmless and great for the game, standing the Londoners out as something different, but the real purpose is to grab the attention of new fans and pull them towards the Premiership leaders instead of the more traditional set ups that can be found elsewhere.  And, of course, if they’re serious off the pitch, they’re deadly serious on it.

Few jokes are made by opposition fans in the build up to an encounter with Sarries.  Why?  Because they are simply the most dominant side in the domestic league at the moment, having spent the season annihilating all-comers. Their pack contains a devastating mix of raw power, in the form of the Vunipola brothers and James Johnston, and graft, with Kelly Brown and Jacques Burger two of the hardest working flankers around.  And in Schalk Brits, they have just a sprinkling of magic too, with the South African hooker hitting his best form for years over the last couple of months.  It’s a pack built for dismantling their opposite numbers – sending them backwards at a rate of knots to give two of Europe’s best finishers, Dave Strettle and Chris Ashton, the space they need to ruthlessly exploit any weakness.  It’s a game-plan based on physical dominance (as well as the cultured boot of Owen Farrell) and it has been bone-crushingly effective so far this season.

In fact, the only time it hasn’t worked – and Sarries have struggled – is against teams who can match, or even best, them physically.  Toulouse have managed it twice this season and, what would have been worrying for Saracens fans, was that there wasn’t an obvious Plan B is the power game failed.  And they’ll need all the tricks they can shove up their sleeve with Clermont Auvergne rolling into Twickenham, because if there’s one thing the French giants’ pack like, it’s a big arm-wrestle.  Hard-nosed veterans in the shape of Jamie Cudmore, Nathan Hines and Julien Bonnaire are some of the toughest men in world rugby, capable of ruling the breakdown through sheer brutality.  It’s a lethal combination when you had in the other key ingredient - a sparkling backline, where Wesley Fofana, Napolini Nalaga and Sitiveni Sivivatu lie in wait to produce moments of genius to unlock the stingiest of defences.  The loss of captain Aurelien Rougerie, the glue of the midfield, will hurt them, but Fofana is now a seasoned campaigner despite being only 26 – it is time for him to step up.

In many ways, the two sides have a similar basic gameplan – winning the collisions with power and aggression around the fringes, before unleashing the ruthless backline into space – so where will the key differences be?  Well, it is fair to say that Clermont have the more natural playmakers and runners in their backline and that means, despite what the gameplan says, they can strike from anywhere.  The visitors, who don’t enjoy a great away record in a similar way to many French sides, will be relying on their big names out wide to produce the goods when needed and, likewise, Sarries will be looking to Brad Barritt to lock up the defence and lead the wolf-pack on its most difficult hunt yet.  Owen Farrell is also key to the Londoners’ hopes – not just because of his ability off the kicking tee, but because he faces off against one of the most cultured players around, in Brock James.  James is a fantastic playmaker but he has been known to get a bit shakey under pressure on occasion – Farrell will be under a similar amount of scrutiny, but he will need to keep his nerve and his authority throughout.

And so Clermont, unofficially the best team in Europe over the last 3 years despite not picking up the silverware to prove it, head to Twickenham in search of a 2^nd straight final and that elusive trophy.  They have the power game to match Saracens’, and the key question will be if the Londoners’ big men, the Vunipolas, can carry hard enough to take their physical game to the next level.  This is serious business time now – the time for giggles if over.

 

Saracens Team News

Alex Goode starts at full-back and is joined by David Strettle and Chris Ashton in the back three as head coach Mark McCall makes three personnel changes to the starting XV that beat 14-man Ulster last time out.  In the midfield, Marcelo Bosch partners Brad Barritt at centre, whilst in the halves Owen Farrell is joined by experienced scrum-half Neil de Kock.  Up front, Mako Vunipola, Schalk Brits and James Johnston make up the front row, with Steve Borthwick captaining the side at second row - he is joined by Mouritz Botha at lock.  Kelly Brown starts at blindside flanker, with Premiership Player of the Season nominee Jacques Burger at openside flanker. England international Billy Vunipola starts at No.8 to complete the back row.

Starting Line up:  15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 David Strettle, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Neil de Kock, 8 Billy Vunipola , 7 Jacques Burger, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Mouritz Botha, 4 Steve Borthwick (c), 3 James Johnston, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Mako Vunipola.

Subs: 16 Jamie George, 17 Richard Barrington, 18 Matt Stevens, 19 Alistair Hargreaves, 20 Jackson Wray, 21 Richard Wiggleworth, 22 Tim Streather, 23 Chris Wyles

Key Player

Kelly Brown.  The Scottish captain was messed about by Scott Johnson during the Six Nations as the Australian coach implemented the ill-advised tactic of dropping his best players, but the flanker never ceases to impress me in a Saracens shirt.  He may have two pet slugs living above his eyes but Brown is the kind of grafter that every player wants in their team – first to the breakdown, making his tackles and offering a ball-carrying option as well.  But his focus on Saturday is going to have to be entirely singular – to make a real mess of the Clermont ball however he can.  The French side showed against Leicester that they can be lethal when they get defences marching backwards and Morgan Parra is given quick ball on a plate, but equally Leicester demonstrated that last year's runners up can be frustrated if the breakdown is fiercely contested.

 

Clermont Auvergne Team News

Clermont will be without captain Aurelien Rougerie due to a thigh injury. Benson Stanley takes his place in one of three changes to the backline that faced Leicester in the quarter-finals.  Lee Byrne starts at full-back in the place of Jean-Marcellin Buttin while New Zealand wing Sitiveni Sivivatu returns, taking over from Noa Nakaitaci, who is on the bench.  Back row forwards Damien Chouly and New Zealander Fritz Lee have recovered from knocks to line up in an unchanged pack.

Clermont Auvergne:  15 Lee Byrne, 14 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13 Benson Stanley, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Naipolioni Nalaga, 10 Brock James, 9 Morgan Parra; 1 Thomas Domingo, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 3 Davit Zirakashvili, 4 Jamie Cudmore, 5 Nathan Hines, 6 Julien Bonnaire (c), 7 Damien Chouly, 8 Fritz Lee.

Subs: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Clement Ric, 19 Julien Piere, 20 Gerhard Vosloo, 21 Thierry Lacrampe, 22 Mike Delany, 23 Noa Nakaitaci.

Key Player

Morgan Parra.  The French 9 may have found himself out of the international side but there is still no doubting that he is a big game player.  In a manner that is typical for scrum halves this side of the channel, he is much more of a playmaker than a running half back, which means he can focus on making the correct decisions and getting his service spot on.  Under the most pressure, though, will be his goal-kicking – in a high pressure game at Twickenham where points are sure to be at a premium, Parra's nerve will need to hold as it did in the quarter finals.  A couple of misses, and those famous French self-doubts may start to creep in.

 

Key Battle

Chris Ashton v Sitiveni Sivivatu.  Chris Ashton made the point this week that he is desperate to get back into the England fold – and, in all honesty, he could be justified in being relatively optimistic.  He has scored 9 tries already in this Heineken Cup – including one absolute pearler against Ulster – and just one more will hand him a record for the European campaign.  But if he wants to prove that he really is back in business, then he'll have to do it against the most explosive wing combination in Europe.  Ex-All Black Sivivatu may be lining up on the opposite side of the field but the big man loves roaming and switching wings with his partner, Napolini Nalaga, and he will smell an opportunity to make some big yards against Ashton's notoriously dodgy defence.  This is shaping up to be a big battle between two great finishers, but one of them has a point to prove – and he has to prove it by handling one of the most physical wingers in rugby.

 

Prediction

A typical French side would be written off as soon as they left their home town, let alone travel across to an English ground.  But Clermont are not a typical French side.  Their side is packed with both local and international talent, and they possess an ethos that makes them one of the few teams capable of travelling and winning anywhere.  Sarries have been magnificent in the Premiership this season and at times have looked unplayable, but they looked worryingly vulnerable against Toulouse and seem to run out of ideas when they are matched physically – which is a rarity, admittedly.  Clermont are one of the sides who can match Sarries in terms of grunt and muscle, and I think that should be enough to give the visitors a narrow win and another shot at the European title.  Clermont by 5.

 

Let’s see what’s happening in the other Heineken Cup semi-final...

Toulon v Munster:  You can read my full preview on The Rugby Blog but, in short, Munster have enough character to have a great shot at turning over the Galacticos in their own backyard.  The question is, do they have enough quality?  I’m not entirely convinced, but you can bet they’ll scrap for everything.  Toulon by 3.

Premiership Review - Harelquins 24 - 20 Leicester Tigers

Firstly, I should apologise for the delay in getting up a review of Friday’s game between Harlequins and Leicester.  If you’ve been waiting on tenterhooks for a write-up, I can only say sorry and politely suggest that you get out more – however, pressing matters have been holding my attention.  By that, I mean I’ve been enjoying the long Easter Weekend and in fact took an extra day’s holiday to really milk it for all it’s worth.  One of the highlights of every Easter for me though takes place on bank holiday Monday every year – it’s bottle kicking and it’s absolutely bonkers.

The premise of bottle kicking is that two villages literally fight to get a keg (the ‘bottle’) back to their land from the top of a hill between the two.  What results from this 200 year old tradition (and you can read the lore behind it here) is a 100-man maul – it’s chaotic, relentless and utterly compelling, and in those ways it reminded me of the spectacle we were treated to at the Stoop on Good Friday night.

Quins may have been riding high off the crest of a superb bonus point win at Sale and had a recent hoodoo over the Tigers (winning 4 from their last 5), but their form before that had been patchy at best, struggling to find the fluency that makes them one of the most dangerous and inventive attacking sides in England.  The East Midlanders, on the other hand, looked to be building ominous momentum, winning 7 league games on the bounce and looking packed with the power and precision that gets them to the peak of the domestic game year after year.  It perhaps should have come as no surprise then to the Stoop faithful that it was the visitors who came crashing out of the blocks.

Recalled Toby Flood, in for the excellent Owen Williams, demonstrated that he still has a cool head on experienced shoulders as he nudged over a penalty in the first minute following a Harlequins offside from the kick off, and four minutes later he was instrumental in creating the first try of the game.  The former England man hit big Ed Slater with a flat pass and the talented lock – tipped for England honours himself – galloped through a gap and fed Jordan Crane, who in turn offloaded to Niki Goneva for the Fijian to coast in by the posts.  It was a fantastic try but questions could have been asked about whether all 3 passes in the build up might have been forward, although the video referee correctly said there was nothing ‘clear and obvious’.  They were certainly marginal calls, and perhaps the video referee was conscious of giving the benefit of the doubt to the attacking side.  Regardless of that though, the Tigers found themselves with a 10 point advantage after just 5 minutes.

Quins, though, were looking far better than that scoreline suggested.  Danny Care was making sure that the game was being played at a break-neck speed and hooker Dave Ward was doing his best Schalk Brits impression, bursting through gaps that didn’t seem to exist.  The Londoners got on the board thanks to a Nick Evans penalty after a surprising scrum infringement by the Tigers front row, and then launched a period of pressure where they pulled the Champions’ defence from side to side and very nearly to breaking point.  One Mike Brown-inspired counter attack in particular had the visitors rocking, the full-back chipping past Blaine Scully only for the covering Goneva to tap the ball out of his path.

Chris Robshaw was acting as a link man, carrier and make-shift fly half as the Londoners hammered at the Leicester line, but they were frustrated by Anthony Allen and the referee Tim Wigglesworth in equal measure, as the latter allowed the former to take out Care off the ball at the back of a ruck to force a turnover.  That became even more of a bitter pill to swallow as Blaine Scully left Sam Smith for dead to make a 40 metre dash up the right hand touchline, culminating in another penalty for Flood against the run of play.  Evans was able to respond in kind, though, punishing Julian Salvi for coming in at the side.

Wigglesworth made headlines for his display in the West Country derby in the previous week and he had already made a couple of contentious decisions in this one – and the biggest of the lot happened just before the break.  With Harlequins awarded a 5 metre scrum after Allen and Manu Tuilagi had done superbly well to hold up Luke Wallace after a sublime chip through from Evans, the Londoners’ 8 somehow got an almighty shove on, forcing the Tigers’ pack backwards and claiming not only a penalty, but a penalty try.  It was a magnificent result for young Kyle Sinckler, who had held his own against Marcos Ayerza in the set piece, but Leicester were fuming at the referee for taking such a harsh line in an area of their perceived dominance – when have you ever seen a referee award a penalty try after just one scrum?  Wigglesworth, though, was in his rights to award one if he thought a try would have been scored – it’s just that every other referee in world rugby usually affords at least one warning at a scrum before jumping underneath the posts.  Consistency of application of rules is, once again, proving the Achilles heel of the game, but it gave a dramatic end to a breathless first half that saw the game tied at 13 apiece.

If Harlequins had been largely in control of the game in the first half, they were completely dominant at the start of the second.  They once again set up camp inside the Leicester 22, with Brown, Sinckler and Maurie Fa’asavalu causing all sorts of problems in the tight exchanges.  After Evans had missed a tricky penalty attempt from 40 metres, the hosts thought they had taken the lead through a Mike Brown try after Scully had failed to gather another great grubber from Evans, but replays showed the American had just got his fingers to the ball before the Quins man.  The hosts were left frustrated by valiant defence from Jamie Gibson and an increasingly dominant Leicester scrum, and so it was with a sense of irony that they eventually took the lead following a set piece penalty where Wigglesworth inexplicably penalised Ayerza for dropping his bind, despite replays clearly showing Sinckler on the floor well before any release.

More was to come from the referee, unfortunately, as Leicester launched a rare attack themselves following the restart.  After the quiet Tuilagi had bulldozed his way into enemy territory with a barnstorming run through 4 defenders, the hosts were penalised, giving Ben Youngs the chance to take a quick tap and attempt to ship the ball wide into space.  Sam Smith blocked off the pass, but was offside, having not retreated 10 metres, and yet Wigglesworth allowed Salvi to take a second quick tap and put Gibson in for a score in the right hand corner.  Once again, it was an example of a refereeing interpretation being entirely inconsistent with what we are used to and to what is implied by other referees across the league.  Flood was again on target with his kick, and the visitors had somehow clawed themselves into a 20 – 16 lead with 20 minutes left. 

Tigers had the chance to extend their lead when awarded a penalty in the midfield, but substitute Pablo Matera was yellow carded for brainlessly dumping Ward off the ball, reversing the penalty in the process.  Yet again, Wigglesworth’s decision making was questionable as he yellow carded George Robson for a retaliatory forearm but failed to reverse the penalty, as is customary for any retaliation.  Instead of trailing by more points, it gave Quins a platform from which to launch yet another attack – and this time, they got what they deserved, Brown surging into the line on the left and holding off Mathew Tait and Blaine Scully to crash over the line.  Replacement Ben Botica was wide with his kick, but he was able to make amends with a 3 pointer shortly afterwards after another infringement which saw Julian Salvi sent to the bin.  Leicester surged forward in vain in the closing stages, but the Quins defence – and in particular the magnificent Dave Ward – shut them out to claim a crucial win and send the home crowd into raptures.

The game may have been chaotic, fractious and riddled with refereeing anomalies, but in many ways this was the best Harlequins display of the season.  This is a side which thrives in chaos, which bodes badly for everyone else.

 

What else was happening in the Aviva Premiership this weekend?

Bath Rugby 32 – 30 Worcester Warriors:  Bath kept Quins at arm’s reach in the playoff race and in doing so shut the door on any lingering hopes the Warriors had of staying up – well, realistic ones anyway.  Tries for Mickey Young, Horacio Agulla, Nick Abendanon and Matt Banahan sew up the bonus point despite efforts from Josh Drauniniu, Andy Symons and Chris Pennell for the visitors.

Exeter Chiefs 12 – 55 Sale Sharks:  The Sharks hammered a Chiefs side in a display so stunning that it was only matched by the ineptitude of the hosts.  Sale kept up their chase for a top 4 spot with tries from (deep breath) Michael Paterson, Tom Arscott, Sam Tuitupou (2), Dwayne Peel, David Seymour and Tom Brady, with the Chiefs managing just two scores through Fetu’u Vainikolo and Carl Rimmer.

London Wasps 38 – 30 Gloucester:  Wasps won a thrilling ‘Stinger’ at Twickenham to keep their hopes of Champions Cup rugby alive and end Gloucester’s in the process.  Tries from James Haskell (2), Tom Varndell, Elliot Daly and Ashley Johnson were too much for the Cherry and Whites, despite efforts from Johnny May, Huia Edmonds and Freddie Burns.

Newcastle Falcons 18 – 23 Saracens:  The Falcons continued their alarming run of losses but pushed the title favourites hard at Kingston Park.  It was two apiece on the try front, with Sinoti Sinoti and Warren Fury cancelling out scores from Tim Streather and Ben Ransom, but the boot of veteran Charlie Hodgson proved to be the difference.

Northampton Saints 36 – 21 London Irish:  Saints got themselves back to winning ways and, in doing so, effectively booked a home semi-final with a bonus point win over Irish.  Jamie Elliott (2), Kahn Fotuali’i, Salesi Ma’afu and Alex Waller were the try scorers for the hosts, with Andy Fenby, Shane Geraghty and Jebb Sinclair scoring for the visitors, with all of the Exiles’ points coming within an 8 minute second half burst.

Premiership Preview - Harlequins v Leicester Tigers

There’s something about the good weather that, as an Englishman, makes everything seem better.  You can walk into work in the mornings with an extra bounce in you step, leaving the ‘Mid-March trudge’ behind.  Getting out of the house all of a sudden takes half as much time as, since the temperature is above 12 degrees, it’s classified as ‘t-shirt weather’ and there’s no need to bury yourself in layers of coats.  But, as a rugby fan, perhaps the best thing to see is the art of free-flowing, fast, running rugby emerge from its winter hibernation to take centre stage on the firm pitches in the final furlong of the season.  And, on Friday night, I’d say that we have the two sides in the Premiership who are best equipped to demonstrate that.

Yes, it may be slightly controversial but, in my eyes, Harlequins and Leicester Tigers are the best teams to watch in the Premiership when on form.  Few could have an argument that the Quins’ high risk, offload-based game is not – as Alan Partridge would say – ‘liquid’ rugby, but the Tigers?  The same side that has shuffled their way through the winter with a series of unconvincing displays?  Yep.  I’m sure Northampton fans would have a strong argument in favour of their own sides’ brand of rugby, but with their stars returning from injury – and, in particular, Manu Tuilagi – the Tigers like to play a high tempo, power-based game that is simply irresistible.  With powerful runners hitting lines off the shoulder of an attacking half-back combination, and with serious magic out-wide in the form of Mathew Tait, Niki Goneva and Manu Tuilagi, they have an all-court game that excels on the harder surfaces.  They may not have won at the Stoop for the last 2 seasons, but they go into this game in ominous form, and are still yet to hit full-stride.

The hosts of the Friday night encounter, Quins, may not have been in the best form of late themselves, but they certainly have a hoodoo over Leicester at the moment, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters – including a convincing win at Welford Road earlier this season.  They also made an emphatic return to the form book by piling a bonus point win on Sale at Manchester last weekend, which is an achievement that can’t be underestimated.  I questioned, before that game, if they had the ‘steeliness’ to win in Salford, but they answered that question spectacularly.  They may play a brand of firework rugby but the reason it works is that they have the blokes willing to do the dirty work, too – world-class grafters  and link-men in the shape of Chris Robshaw and Nick Easter, and just plain tough nuts in the form Mike Brown and Joe Marler.

And Marler will be part of a crucial front row battle on Friday.  Although I expect him to get parity against the colossal Logovi’i Mulipola, young Kyle Sinckler faces a harsh examination of his credentials, packing down against one of the best looseheads in world rugby, Marcos Ayerza.  Sinck or swim, if you will (sorry).  The scrum will certainly be one area where the Tigers will look to get an upper hand, and the lineout will be another, with the returning Graham Kitchener making dastardly plans to disrupt the throwing of mobile hooker Dave Ward.  However, outside the static power of the set-piece, Quins will be confident in their game – they have two real workhorses at the breakdown in Robshaw and Luke Wallace, and they should supply ample quick ball for Danny Care and Nick Evans to torment the defences with.  Leicester’s half backs, Ben Youngs and the returning club captain Toby Flood, love a bit of quick ball too, mind, and the face off between the two England 9s will be worth the admission price alone.  With guys like Tuilagi, Goneva, Brown and Ollie Lindsay Hague all lethal runners, the decision making and speed of the half backs will be all important; the guns are loaded, but who can pull the trigger?

With battles and players brimming with X-Factor all over the park, this is the game that running rugby was made for.  Too much expectation?  Perhaps.  And with Quins fighting for a playoff spot and the Tigers desperately trying to keep them at bay whilst furthering their home semi-final aspirations, there’s always the risk that we’ll see a scrap.  But neither of these sides have the word ‘fear’ in their dictionary, and the Stoop is usually a place where high expectations are met.  Summer is here.

Harlequins Team News

Conor O’Shea has been lazy and named an unchanged starting line-up for the third consecutive game.  Either that or he actually has a ‘first choice’ side in mind – a rarity for coaches in the professional game these days.  How old school.

Starting Line up:  Brown; Lindsay-Hague, Molenaar, Turner-Hall, Smith; Evans, Care; Marler, Ward, Sinckler; Matthews, Robson; Wallace, Robshaw (capt), Easter.

Subs: Buchanan, Lambert, Doran Jones, Guest, Fa'asavalu, Dickson, Botica, Chisholm.

Key Player

Mike Brown.  The full back actually began to bore me in the Six Nations with his consistent excellence for his country – there are only so many superlatives you can use before you sound repetitive.  The Quins man may look like Lord Voldemort’s sporty younger brother but he is one of the best full backs in the world on current form – he reads the game superbly, he attacks with devastating penetration and he is a rock under the high ball.  At times this season Leicester’s kick chase hasn’t been too sharp and Toby Flood, for all his qualities, can get a bit wayward with the boot at times.  Brown must gobble up every chance he gets to get his team counter-attacking at pace again.

 

Leicester Tigers Team News

In stark contrast to his counterpart, Richard Cockerill makes 5 changes to the side which sauntered to victory over Wasps last weekend.  Club captain Toby Flood makes a rare start at fly half whilst Anthony Allen comes back in at 12, with Manu Tuilagi shifting to 13.  In the pack, a brand new front row of Marcos Ayerza, Neil Briggs and Logovi’i Mulipola come in to anchor the scrum.

Starting Line up:  Tait; Scully, Tuilagi, Allen, Goneva; Flood, B Youngs; Ayerza, Briggs, Mulipola; Slater (capt), Kitchener; Gibson, Salvi, Crane.

Subs: Hawkins, Stankovich, Balmain, Parling, Matera, Mele, Williams, Morris.

Key Player

Toby Flood.  Club captain.  50-caps for England.  All proof that nothing guarantees you a start at the Tigers, with Flood spending time on the bench watching youngster Owen Williams strut his stuff in the 10 shirt.  But the Toulouse-bound fly-half has an opportunity to remind everyone of his class this Friday evening, and it should be his sort of game.  I mentioned above that his kicking from hand can be a bit wobbly – and that has to be tightened up – but I think he will be under instruction to run everything from outside the 22.  He won’t want to give Brown any easy balls to run back, and with an almost first choice backline outside him and a firm pitch underfoot, the stage is set for Flood to show all of his attacking qualities, playing up to the gainline and creating space for his runners.

 

Key Battle

Danny Care v Ben Youngs.  It seems every time these two play, I land on these 2 as being the key battle.  And perhaps that is partly due to a lack of imagination on my part, but also because they are – in my opinion – the best 2 scrum halves in England and are the heartbeat for either side’s attacking game.  Care has carried on his England form, fizzing around the breakdown and not giving the fringe defences a moment’s rest, and the timing and decision making behind his runs has also improved immeasurably.  Youngs, meanwhile, has been picking up the pace nicely at Tigers, setting up tries against Saints and Wasps with a dart and a bullet flat pass, but he knows he will have to put in an epic performance if he is going to start pushing Care for that England jersey.  Both men are key to their side’s high tempo games, and whoever can get the timings of their darts and their tap-and-goes spot on will give their side a huge advantage in attack.

Prediction

Well, what a horrible game to call.  Leicester are arguably the better side on form, but whenever I look at this Quins side a little bit of dribble comes out in excited anticipation at the brand of rugby they play.  They have a wonderfully balanced side, with only a few ‘superstars’, but when they get their offload game together they are a joy to watch.  That said, Leicester are rumbling ominously and I can see them getting the upper hand in the set-piece, which will be a big advantage.  They’re capable of playing some decent stuff too and a high tempo, so we should be in for a cracking game – but I have an inkling that the visitors’ power will just be enough to see them sneak home.  Tigers by 3.

PS  Tim Wigglesworth got lots of bad press last week for his performance last week in the West Country derby but, putting aside that display, he is a pretty whistle-happy ref.  Do us a favour, Timmy - let this one flow.

What else is happening around the Aviva Premiership this weekend?

Bath v Worcester Warriors:  The Warriors are scrapping for their lives but Dean Ryan’s team won’t find any joy against a team that knows it has to win to keep the other playoff hunters at bay.  A comfortable win for the West Country side.  Bath by 14.

Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks:  The Chiefs looked irresistible in patches last weekend whilst Sale were fairly ordinary for the first time in a long time.  The Sharks still have plenty to play for though and I think they might just sneak a tough encounter at Sandy Park.  Sale by 2.

London Wasps v Gloucester:  Gloucester are probably still seething after last weekend’s debacle, whilst Wasps will be frustrated after impressing in defence against Leicester.  The hosts won a home fixture just a fortnight ago in the Amlin Cup and, although this 7^th place eliminator takes place at Twickenham in ‘The Stinger’, that will give them the confidence to nick this one.  Wasps by 5.

Northampton Saints v London Irish:  Saints come off the back of 3 losses but their last 10 minutes against Sarries showed they can still mix it with the best.  They will need to be careful against Irish, who turned over Saracens on their own turf and ran in 40 points in 40 minutes last week, but the hosts should have enough to get their campaign back on track.  Saints by 11.

Newcastle Falcons v Saracens:  This was always going to be a tough one for the Falcons to win but, perhaps unfairly, Dean Richards’ troops will know just how crucial it is by the time they take the pitch, with bottom-side Worcester playing the day before.  I don’t think it will make a difference to the score though when Sarries are in town.  Saracens by 16.

 

Premiership Review - Saracens 28 - 24 Northampton Saints

It’s not too often that the top two sides in the league can go head to head in such completely different moods.  Saracens, the showboaters of Premiership Rugby, could swan into this encounter off the back of 6 consecutive Premiership victories, a world-record club rugby crowd at Wembley, a Heineken Cup quarter final victory away from home and a fun-filled trip to New York thrown in for good measure.  They couldn’t have been looking more smug if their pre-match massages were conducted by the models of the latest Victoria’s Secret catalogue. 

Saints, meanwhile, may be sitting second, but 2 consecutive defeats in the league to Sale and to arch-enemies Leicester have taken the sting out of their season, along with an LV=Cup Final defeat to Leicester.  They of course still have a fantastic side, and with anyone else you would shrug this off as a blip, but Saints have been here too many times.  Too many times they have been so near, but ended so far.  But perhaps things were starting to look up as they headed to Allianz Park on Sunday.  A victory in the Amlin Cup over Sale got them back to winning ways and a week spent in warm weather training in Lanzarote should surely have had them refreshed and recharged for the big run-in.  Although, before kick off, judging from some of the tans on show, it was hard not to suspect that there may have been a little bit too much sunbathing...

It certainly didn’t seem like this was the case at first though, as Samu Manoa timed his run out of defence perfectly to wallop Kelly Brown backwards in a monstrous hit, before Christian Day grabbed the collector’s item which is a stolen ball from the Saracens lineout.  The problem for Saints was, though, that it was Sarries who had all the possession in the opening exchanges – and they have a habit of making it count.  This proved to be the case after 8 minutes when, following good link up play in the middle of the park by Schalk Brits and Jackson Wray, Owen Farrell intelligently switched play back to the narrow side where the Northampton front row were defending and dropped a perfectly placed grubber in behind them for chief poacher David Strettle to gather and touch-down.  It was perfectly executed and delightfully subtle from Farrell and, although his conversion was miscued, it meant that the hosts had the perfect start.

Northampton, though, have been stung by the mutterings of another season coming off the rails at the crucial time, and they launched an immediate riposte.  After Stephen Myler had punished a Saracens’ scrum infringement with 3 points from the tee in the 14^th minute, the visitors fell back on their most potent weapon – the driving maul – to blast the league leaders’ pack back 25 metres from a lineout.  The maul was being driven forward at a rate of knots and, although Samu Manoa looked to have eventually plunged over, referee Matthew Carley awarded a penalty try.  Suddenly, Saints were 10 – 5 to the good.  Was another home mauling against the same opposition on the cards for the men in black?

3 minutes later, the crowd had an emphatic answer, as Sarries scored one of the tries of the season.  Breaking from within his own half, hooker Brits stepped inside centre George Pisi and accelerated out of Courtney Lawes’ despairing dive to carve the visitors’ defence wide open.  The South African offloaded to Chris Ashton, who was well caught, but the ball made its way wide to the right hand touchline via an optimistic offload from Mouritz Botha and a grizzled flick on from skipper Steve Borthwick, who was making a record 263^rd Premiership appearance, before ending up in the hands of Brown, giving the Scottish captain the chance to step inside and dive over the line.  Farrell added a superb conversion, and the hosts were back in the lead.

Saracens now assumed full control of the game, with some superb offloads from Brits keeping the defence back-peddling and a couple of thunderous charges from Mako Vunipola scattering would-be tacklers all over the pitch.  Saints did offer some hard-hitting resistance, as both Calum Clark and Courtney Lawes introduced their shoulders to Farrell’s rib-cage, but all the invention and – most importantly – were all coming from the home side.  Argentinean centre Marcelo Bosch stepped up to casually swipe over a couple of monster penalties – one from a colossal 58 metres – before Farrell added the final points of the half.  The England 10 looked worse for wear following some of the rough treatment and was withdrawn at half time with a foot injury, but even that couldn’t take the gloss off a 21 – 10 halftime score in favour of the Londoners.

George North made his first impact in the game after half time by going on a promising charge, but it proved to be a false dawn as Sarries continued to hold all the possession and trouble the visitors with their creativity and power.  After Farrell’s replacement, veteran Charlie Hodgson, had missed a penalty attempt following an infringement at a maul by Clark, the hosts were crossing the tryline again.  A poor pass by Myler was fumbled by Pisi and Wigglesworth made the most of possession to weave within 5 metres of the line.  The ball was shipped left, where good hands from Botha and Ashton kept the ball alive before Bosch burrowed his way over for his side’s third try.  The hosts now not only had an 18 point lead after Hodgson’s conversion, but they were eying up a bonus point.

The cynical man could start to claim that this was yet another example of Saints’ season going into meltdown at the key time.  But then, in the last 10 minutes, with Saracens seemingly cruising, that all changed.  Substitute Matt Stevens had been performing his customary role of giving away as many penalties as possible and was sent to the bin for his efforts, and this seem to finally give Saints the zip that had been missing in their ball-retention and midfield play all game.  From a lineout, England man Luther Burrell hit an excellent line off Stephen Myler to break through and touch down at full stretch with his finger tips by the posts, to bring the score to 27 – 17.  Then, barely 2 minutes later, they were at it again as the hosts went into full retreat, with Myler, Burrell and substitute James Wilson attacking the blindside.  Ashton looked as if he had done well to strip the ball from the Kiwi, but George North gathered up the crumbs to crash over in the corner which – after Myler’s magnificent kick – pulled the visitors back within 4 points.  Now that punch, that swagger, that intensity that has made Northampton unplayable at times this season was back on display.  Sarries were on the ropes – could they complete one of the great comebacks and re-announce themselves as the team to beat in the race for the title?

Ultimately, no.  Billy Vunipola won a turnover with time up to allow the hosts to clear their lines and claim a win that, realistically guarantees that they will finish top of the pile for the second consecutive season.   But for Northampton, the key will be in what those last frantic, impressive 10 minutes will mean.  Are they indicative of a side that will come close but doesn’t do enough to go all the way?  Or will it kick start their season once again?  Time will tell.

What else was happening in the Aviva Premiership this weekend?

Sale Sharks 12 – 27 Harlequins:  Quins emphatically put a stamp on Sale's late-run as playoff chasers, and in doing so kept their own hopes alive.  The hosts scored first and last though Tom Brady and a penalty score, but the visitors picked up a superb bonus point with Nick Evans, Danny Care, Sam Smith and Maurie Fa'asavalu all crossing.

Gloucester 17 – 18 Bath Rugby:  A last minute penalty try gave the spoils of a chaotic West Country derby to Bath.  The visitors had scored first through Stuart Hooper but Henry Trinder looked to have brought it back for the hosts, although the real talking point was the 2 red cards and 5 yellows dished out by Tim Wigglesworth as the Cherry and Whites finished the game with 11 men.

Worcester Warriors 33 – 38 Exeter Chiefs:  The Warriors bravely claimed two bonus points but ultimately fell to defeat against the Chiefs, leaving their survival hopes hanging by a thread.  The visitors scored tries through Dave Lewis, Sam Hill, Gareth Steenson and Jack Yeandle (2), whilst the Warriors fought back with scores from Chris Pennell, David Lemi (2) and Agustin Creevy.

Leicester Tigers 27 – 15 London Wasps:  Leicester kept up their traditional late-season surge with a bonus point win at home to Wasps.  The Tigers grabbed 4 tries through Manu Tuilagi (2), Niki Goneva and David Mele, with Wasps responding through Guy Thompson and Tommy Bell.

London Irish 40 – 12 Newcastle Falcons:  London Irish blitzed the Falcons with a first-half try-fest that left Newcastle director of rugby fuming, despite holding the hosts to a scoreless second period.  The hosts scored the only 5-pointers, with Andy Fenby (3). Fergus Mulchrone, Eamon Sheridan and Gerard Ellis all touching down.
 

Premiership Preview - Saracens v Northampton Saints

 

This stage of the season gets a lot of positive press.  The "business-end", coaches and fans alike call it.  The bit where all the silverware is dusted off and polished in readiness for the clamouring of grubby Captains' mitts that takes place around May every year.  And it doesn't get any less enthralling.  But, as a rugby writer (part-time, of course), I find that it gets more and more tricky.  Every fixture seems to become crucial – for a home semi-final, for a playoff spot, for survival, or even just for plain old bragging rights.  Picking just one fixture to write about becomes a real headache.  First-world problems I know.

This week I had the West-Country derby, a crunch encounter between play-off chasers and two games that will be pivotal to the survival for the Premiership's two bottom clubs.  But in the end I took the safe option – 1st v 2nd.  You can never go too far wrong with that.

And not going too far wrong is precisely what will be at the back of every Northampton Saints fans' mind.  Last season, they made a big stride and a statement, making the final and moving out of the "also-ran" category.  And this season they carried on, looking unplayable at times with a combination of pace and power that was not only easy on the eye but a nightmare to defend against.  George North remains a freak of nature, George Pisi a box of tricks, and Samu Manoa and Courtney Lawes are still bottom of every fly-half's Christmas card list. But the wheels have certainly loosened on the Saints' steam train – even if they haven't completely come off yet.  Defeats to Sale and Leicester have seen the Tigers bare down on their home semi-final spot – this Sunday's game is critical to keeping that challenge at bay.  Saints need to play fast and run hard in the wider channels, as they did when they overturned Sarries on their own patch in the semis last year.  If the "wolf-pack" Saracens defence is forced outside of its comfort zone, then that black wall can be breached.

And of course last year's defeat will still be stinging many of the hosts on Sunday.  So confident were Sarries last year before they played the hapless Northampton that there was a parade of the players' families before the game.  Don't expect any such shenanigan  this time round.  The Londoners are without silverware in 2 seasons and they are hungry to make their mark as the dominant force in England once again.  Their kicking game is well documented but this year they have impressed with their attacking continuity too – big ball carriers making big yards around the fringes, drawing in defences and getting them backpeddling before finally unleashing their lethal finishers in the shape of Dave Strettle and Chris Ashton.  Simple, yes, but also exceptionally painful to defend against.  It's a ferociously physical tactic that they will be desperate to unleash in retribution for the disappointment of last season.

On second thoughts, the fact that this is 1st v 2nd doesn't make this the biggest game of the weekend.  The fact that 2 of the most physical teams in the league are going head to head does.  Never before has the term 'crunch encounter' felt more appropriate.

Saracens Team News

Saracens make five changes from the side that beat Ulster in the Heineken Cup last week, with Kelly Brown and Mako Vunipola coming into the back row.  Chris Wyles starts at full-back, while Marcelo Bosch and Neil de Kock are at centre and scrum-half respectively.

Starting Line up:  Wyles; Ashton, Bosch, Barritt, Strettle; Farrell, De Kock; M Vunipola, Brits, Johnston; Borthwick (capt), Botha; Wray, Brown, B Vunipola.

Subs: George, Barrington, Stevens, Sheriff, Burger, Wigglesworth, Hodgson, Streather.

Key Player

Billy Vunipola.  When Sarries think back to the day when Saints pooped their party in the playoffs last season, they will note how every Northampton player broke the gainline with carries and how ever Saracens player was stopped dead in their tracks.  They were bullied.  Well, try bullying Billy.  The baby of the Vunipola brothers is so huge that he has his own orbit and carries the power of approximately 10 combined rhinoceros.  His job will be to ensure that the hosts don't lose the physicality battle again, getting the men in black on the front foot through big carries up the middle or round the fringes.  Everything good that Sarries do comes from go-forward ball – it's big game for the young number 8.

 

Northampton Saints Team News

There are wholesale changes to the Northampton Saints side that won the Amlin Challenge Cup tie against Sale last week, with 12 faces coming in.  Captain Dylan Hartley (shoulder) is out, but Stephen Myler is back at 10.  England internationals Ben Foden, Luther Burrell, Lee Dickson, Courtney Lawes and Tom Wood all start along with Wales wing George North.  

Starting Line up:  Foden; Elliott, Pisi, Burrell, North; Myler, Dickson; A Waller, McMillan, Ma'afu; Lawes, Day; Clarke, Wood, Manoa.

Subs: Haywood, E Waller, Denman, Dickinson, Dowson, Fotuali'i, Hooley, Wilson.

Key Player

Samu Manoa.  Yes, Billy's opposite number happens to be arguably the only man in English rugby whose tackling technique is utilised by building demolition companies.  His selection at 8 rather than second row is telling because it shows that the visitors are going for raw power than mobility in the back row, and there Manoa will be given a free role and the task of effectively man-marking Vunipola.  The brief is simple – stop Sarries' biggest runner, and you can stop them from getting going.  What happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object?  I think we're about to find out…

 

Key Battle

Owen Farrell v Stephen Myler.  It may seem rather less obvious – and certainly less explosive – than the Vunipola v Manoa clash, but the battle between the fly halves is arguably going to have the greater tactical significance.  Both sides rely on getting into the right areas of the pitch and Farrell will need to make sure he picks up this area of his game from last week against Ulster and get back to Six Nations standards – he doesn't want to be giving George North and Ben Foden the ball in space.  Likewise, Saints will be looking to Myler to pull the strings and get them playing smart rugby – they've looked a little lost at times with young Will Hooley at fly half, who is still learning his trade, and so Myler is absolutely vital to Northampton's cause if they are to get some momentum back into their campaign.  Whoever wins the kicking duel out of these two will most likely set the platform for victory.

 

Prediction

That play-off semi-final last year blew all of us away because nobody saw it coming – Saints were hungrier, angrier and tougher in every facet of the game.  They are unfortunately missing one of the hungriest, angriest, and toughest men in the game though in the shape of their captain, Dylan Hartley, and that won't help their cause – but I don't think that is the reason they won't win on Sunday.  Sarries have seen what this Northampton side can do first hand and they will be in no mood at all to let it happen again – I expect a far more physical game from them than last year, matched with the ruthless pragmatism that has been so prevalent this season around.  Saints will fight hard – but just come up short.  Saracens by 7.

 

What else is happening in the Aviva Premiership this week?

Sale Sharks v Harlequins:  This match is crucial to both sides' playoff ambitions, and Quins will be relieved that the north-west is a bit more palatable at this time of year. But I still don't think they have the steel that they had a couple of seasons ago and I can see Steve Diamond's men picking up a critical win this time round.  Sale by 4.

Leicester Tigers v London Wasps:  The Tigers will be hurting after their narrow loss to French giants, Clermont, and will be keen to make a statement when Wasps come to town.  But Wasps will have no fear after a much improved display against Gloucester in the Amlin Cup, although I still think their squad depth prevents them from being seriously competitive.  Tigers by 11.

Worcester Warriors v Exeter Chiefs:  Another absolutely critical game that the Warriors simply have to win if they want to stay up.  The Chiefs have nothing to play for after a middling season by their standards, whilst the Warriors will hold some confidence after picking up their first win of the season in the last round – and I think they just might kick on.  Warriors by 2.

Gloucester v Bath:  It's another big West Country derby, but it's Bath's to lose.  Gloucester, as ever, have looked talented and free-running in brief moments but they lack the grunt up front to really compete against any of the sides in the top 4.  Bath may be away from home, but they'll expect to win this one.  Bath by 6.

London Irish v Newcastle Falcons:  Another do-or-die fixture – this time for the Falcons.  If they win, they keep their fate in their own hands.  Lose, and they have to nervously watch elsewhere.  They will know the Warriors' result before they start which I can't see being helpful either way, and Irish have surprised many – including myself – with the quality of some of their play this season.  Irish by 5.