Premiership Final Preview - Bath v Saracens

This Premiership is weird.  On one hand, I have no doubt in my mind that the two teams contesting the final are the two best teams in the land – top-of-the-pile Northampton have impressed, of course, but I still feel they sometimes lack that extra bite over the park (don’t get any ideas, Mr Hartley), and Leicester frankly surprised everyone by finishing where they did, which is both a compliment and an insult at the same time.  Saracens, though, strike me as a side who know what they have to do and pull it out the bag when it’s needed – they may have had the odd off-day, but when they play like they did last week, they’re impossible to put down.  And Bath...well, Bath have been a joy to watch this year.  Even when they’re piling on a half century of points onto your side.  Yes, the battle between 2^nd and 4^th is, in fact, a battle between the best two sides in England and, if anything, is an endorsement of the playoff system.

Of course, I could be a cynic and say it’s also a ringing endorsement of having rich owners and silly amounts of money (that investigation into salary cap breaches, against the two participants of today’s final, has gone strangely quiet), but I will save those musings for another time.  The fact is, at Twickenham today, there is some frankly incredible talent on show from both sides and the two completely different styles of play – both of which have yielded plenty of tries – should make it pretty easy on the eye too.

Bath, of course, are the probably going to be the neutral’s choice, with their razzmatazz style of fast, wide rugby, which has been great to watch all year.  It is all made possible by having a simple system whereby George Ford has the option of hitting three runners every time he has the ball – ‘the diamond formation’ I’ve heard it referred to as – and that creates confusion in defence, allowing Ford to either hit short runners or pull it back to go wider.  And Ford has a knack of picking the right option and disguising his passes – and when you have the likes of Joseph and Watson lurking out wide, any indecision is usually going to pretty spectacularly punished.

For Sarries, they shouldn’t take offence when I say that they don’t have the personnel to play the way that Bath do.  Instead, they have a ruthlessly efficient gameplan which involves getting into the right areas with the boot, getting a defence moving backwards with their powerful forward runners and – when they spot an opportunity or a miss-match – moving the rapidly to the point of weakness and surging through it.  In many ways, it’s as spectacular to watch as Bath’s attacking plan, and it comes with that ominous sense of once the big black machine starts rumbling, it’s impossible to stop.  And don’t forget the wolf-pack of course, led by Jacques Burger – a most violent man with a talent for putting his face where most wouldn’t put their feet.  It’s a defence that can win matches – just ask Clermont in 2014.

But to be honest, all this tactical nonsense and comparison of styles is irrelevant.  It’s Twickenham, it’s Final day, and the winner will be the one who can answer just one key question – how do you handle the pressure?

Bath Team News

Mike Ford has understandably picked the same squad that dished out ruthless punishment against Leicester last weekend, with the Peter Stringer starting at scrum half and the new ‘holy trinity’ of George Ford, Eastmond and Joseph waiting in the backline to weave their spells.  Ross Batty continues to be preferred to England World Cup squadder Rob Webber, and Sam Burgess plays on the biggest stage of his Union career – let’s see how he handles it.

Starting Line-up:  Watson; Rokoduguni, Joseph, Eastmond, Banahan; Ford, Stringer; James, Batty, Wilson, Hooper (capt), Attwood, Burgess, Louw, Houston.

Subs: Webber, Auterac, Thomas, Day, Garvey, Fearns, Cook, Devoto.

Key Player

Sam Burgess.  Yes, I know, I’m hideously predictable.  In terms of context of the game itself, Francois Louw and Kyle Eastmond or Jonathan Joseph will have bigger influences, but in terms of interest, you have to look at Burgess.  Although England have been crying out for a 12 for some time, I would suggest that the 6 shirt is not as well-stocked as we might think.  Tom Wood has been quiet for some time and struggling for his best form, Haskell as well know is destructive but a penalty-machine, and so there me be some scope for Burgess to legitimately force his way into the reckoning – but he will have to do it here, against the most physical pack in the land.  Forget the fancy offloads, this is about stopping Sarries big runners – the Vunipola brothers in particular – in their tracks, hitting rucks and making the hard yards.  This about graft – and it will tell us whether he is ready to be an international 6.

 

Saracens Team News

Like his counterpart, Mark McCall has named an unchanged side from the one that surprised Northampton Saints last weekend.  The only change comes in the replacements, where Schalk Brits returns from illness.  Jamie George continues his fine season with a start in his team’s biggest game of the year and, intriguingly, Chris Ashton is on the bench as the men in black lean towards the in-form American, Chris Wyles.

Starting Line-up:  Goode; Strettle, Taylor, Barritt, Wyles; Farrell, Wigglesworth; M. Vunipola, George, Du Plessis, Kruis, Hargreaves (capt), Itoje, Burger, B. Vunipola.

Subs: Brits, Barrington, Figallo, Hamilton, Wray, de Kock, Hodgson, Ashton.

Key Player

Billy Vunipola.  What a great second half to the season Billy boy has had.  He was disappointing during the Autumn Internationals, perhaps taking his place for granted, but he has worked hard on his fitness and now he is true 80-minute number 8, capable of bringing out huge carries late in the game as well as at the start.  The big man is absolutely key to the way Saracens play – they don’t have the players or the structure out wide to break a set defence, so it is up to the power runners like Billy to get that defence going backwards and cause confusion.  I expect to see him take the ball into the midfield a lot, targeting Eastmond and Ford, as opposed to just hitting the fringes – and Sarries need to give him the chance to run at the smaller men as often as possible.

 

Key Battle

George Ford v Owen Farrell.  It’s the obvious one again, isn’t it?  In truth I could probably point to eye-wateringly physical confrontation between Francois Louw and Jacques Burger, or the clash of styles between Kyle Eastmond and Brad Barritt, but the personal duel between these two is absolutely key.  They know each other, they played through the age groups together (where Ford was the preferred 10, coincidently) and they have both approached the games from different angles – but they’ve worked on their weaknesses significantly over the last couple of years.  Ford is the more instinctive, but has worked on his game management and kicking, whilst Farrell is a dead-eye of the tee and a controller of games, but he’s added a range of passing to his game over recent years though.  You have to say though that the instinct to spot the gap or make the right call in attack is something that can’t really be taught, so Ford has the edge going forward, but if Farrell can pin the Bath side back with his boot then it might all count for nothing.

 

Prediction

Well, with two sides with obviously different strengths and styles of play, this is going to be a tricky one to call.  You look down the two backlines and you can see one which can create and exploit holes, and one which is built for finishing, and then you look at the two packs and you can see one that it is mobile, and the other which is a heavyweight and packed with power.  Sarries will know that they need to break down the Bath pack to win this game – something Leicester couldn’t manage – and they need to do that by getting them moving backwards, falling off their big runners.  In defence, Jacques Burger will be hunting down Ford throughout the 80 minutes, but I have a feeling that Bath will be able to handle what gets thrown at them.  Their aggression and organisation in defence last week was superb against some powerful runners, and I wouldn’t bet against them weathering the same storm here.  Ford now has the maturity to handle the extra attention and, if he sees enough of the ball, I think he will be able to guide Bath to a win.  Not by much, but that won’t matter to West Country fans.  Bath by 4.

Premiership Semi-Final Review - Bath 47 - 10 Leicester Tigers

 

I’m going to throw my impartiality right out of the window – I’ve been dreading this write up.  Let’s be honest, I’ve had to write up some real turds in the past (in terms of game-enjoyment, as opposed to the quality of my writing, but I suppose that’s subjective) such as Wales v England 2013, or the 45 – 0 Bath humping of the Tigers in September.  All very difficult to keep your colours close to your chest, but it does make it easier when the opposition play with such quality that a small part of me (a part which I despite, admittedly) has to loudly applaud.  I confidently predicted, before Leicester arrived at the Rec for the Premiership Semi-final on Saturday, that we wouldn’t be seeing another thrashing of the magnitude of earlier on in the season...and, technically, I was right.  Barely.

Leicester certainly seemed like they might be a very different animal in the build up to this one.  Having squeezed the life out of Bath in the Welford Road fixture earlier on in the year, there were signs against Wasps that the Tigers might be finding their bite again, at exactly the right time.  They looked hungry as they emerged from the tunnel but the slow, purposeful walk of Stuart Hooper and his troops told another story – and, within 2 minutes, there was a worrying sense of déjà vous for the Tigers players as Bath went over for the first score.  Following a mistake by Jordan Crane, Jonathan Joseph made an electric outside break to put Matt Banahan into space, who charged over for a converted try and a dream start for the hosts.

The visitors did respond well and a Ben Youngs dart almost put Christian Loamanu over on the right, before Freddie Burns missed a penalty attempt – surprising given his form prior to the game.   Leicester were making good ground, however, and were already showing dominance at the set-piece, where Dan Cole had Paul James in trouble, but Crane completed his nightmare opening to the game by conceding a penalty when the men in orange were getting close to the visitors’ line and then knocking on when the next opportunity arose.  I will admit that, at this time, Mr Crane was not the most popular person in my living room.

Burns finally added a penalty, after a further miss and following a harsh no-arms penalty on James to get the visitors on the board and already better their last effort at the Rec, but Bath were in a ruthless mood.  After Leicester cocked up the catch at the kick off, Bath ran through a couple of phases, with Sam Burgess making good yardage before Ford again swung the ball out to the left for Banahan to steam over for the try.  Too easy, and a symptom of Leicester this season that they have been outflanked with ease far too often – and it happened again moments later on the other side, as Semesa Rokoduguni skinned Niki Goneva with an electric turn of speed and chipped ahead for Kyle Eastmond to gather and dot down.  30 minutes gone and, thanks to Ford’s flawless kicking, it was 21 – 3 to Bath.  Bath had visited Leicester’s 22 three times, and come away with three tries.

Leicester were stunned and knew they had to strike back, and to their credit they dominated the rest of the half.  Powerful carries from the likes of Tom Youngs and Ed Slater were constant sources of yardage, and Matt Tait was demonstrating superb footwork to match Joseph in the midfield, but – yet again – there was no system, no deception in place.  It was simply a case of pass it to a bloke and see what they can do.  The pressure that Leicester built though required some superb defence from Bath, and Francois Louw was at the heart of it, but eventually the penalties started to come, with Anthony Watson seeing yellow for going offside and he was swiftly followed by Leroy Houston, who was sent to the naughty-boy bin for dragging down a maul.  Leicester nearly took advantage through Niall Morris in the corner, but the ball was dislodged as he dived over – however, on the cusp of half time, they finally worked their way over the line as Tom Youngs burrowed over from 5 metres for a well-deserved try, leaving the score at 21 – 10.

It had been an odd first half as Leicester had dominated possession and territory, but were well behind on the scoreboard – a testament to the precision and invention of the Bath attack, more than anything – and it was more of the same after the break.  A couple of scrum penalties went unconverted, firstly by Burns and then by Tommy Bell, who replaced Morris after the Irishman had suffered a nasty-looking ankle injury.

I could go into great detail about the next 15 minutes, but in truth it all followed a uniform pattern.  Usually a smart bit of work by a Leicester player such as Goneva, one of the Youngs brothers, Loamanu or Tait would get the visitors surging forward but, as soon they reached the Bath 22, someone would think “Oh sh*t, we’re getting a bit close here", and concede a knock on or a penalty.  That is, of course, to do a huge disservice to the Bath defence, which was superb throughout – with the relatively small backline remaining disciplined and the aggressive backrow, now containing Carl Fearns, starting to dominate the collisions when it mattered most.  Time after time the visitors were repelled, and you could see the energy fade from them; you could see the heads start to drop.  And Bath then ripped them apart with the ruthlessness of the old Leicester teams.

Firstly, a superb break by Francois Louw in the midfield allowed the South African to offload to Dobby-the-house-elf-lookalike Peter Stringer to dive over for a game-sealing and well-received score, before Rokoduguni and Ford exchanged passes down the right hand touchline for the latter to dive over in the corner.  It was what Ford deserved after a sensational performance which oozed class, composure and accuracy.

Leicester pressed for a consolation try but they were uninventive, slow, predictable – everything Bath were not, and they counter-attacked with stunning precision as Anthony Watson weaved his way upfield to create the space for Banahan to go over for his hat-trick.  And there was still time for Watson to go through himself, carving through the Leicester line and riding a tap-tackle to score by the posts.  Leicester were on the canvas.  Bath, having rode out the storm, were simply unstoppable.

The final score was 47 – 10.  Tigers had enjoyed 70% possession and territory, but Bath gave them a lesson in making it count.  Simply put, it was the best attacking display I’ve seen this year from a young side packed with ambition and talent – and it looks as if they’ve got the experience to go all the way this year.

 

Premiership Semi-Final Preview - Bath v Leicester Tigers

I suppose most people may have guessed, despite my attempts to be impartial, that I am a Leicester fan.  Having been born a stones-throw away from Welford Road, I’ve been fortunate enough to watch some great moments, see some unbelievable players and witness far more than my fair share of trophy-liftings...but there is the odd bad day as well.  And then there was that day at the Rec in September.

I attended the match with a rather chirpy work-colleague, himself a Bath fan, and he had a great day out, giggling like a school-girl for the full 80 minutes whilst I was forced to find solace in the (admittedly very well thought-out) double pint glasses of Bath Ales Gem.  On that day, I saw a Leicester side as resilient as a soaking wet strip of toilet paper, as the hosts mercilessly put them to the sword, with the axis of Ford, Eastmond and Joseph causing carnage throughout the 45 – 0 walloping that was admitted to the giants of the English game.  It set the tone for the season in many ways – Bath sparkling, strutting their way to wins, with the Tigers disjointed and low on ideas.  And yet, here we are.  Just one place separated the two at the end of the regular season, and anything can happen in a semi-final.

Bath, of course, are favourites.  And deservedly so.  The question they have to answer now is whether or not they can play like champions when the pressure is on, against the top sides when the intensity and physicality go up.  If Bath play at pace and win the forward battle up-front, they will win and win well – but a few times this season we have seen the Bath side crumble against more powerful opponents, like Saracens or even Leicester in the return fixture.  This game will be brutal, and the key men for Bath are not the headline-winners in that superb backline, but the grizzled warriors in the pack – Attwood, Louw and Burgess.  They need to be aware of what will be thrown at them and ready to meet it head on.

Because a Leicester side is always at its most dangerous when the backs are against the wall and, for most of this season, they will have felt like they have been cornered.  By critics, by fans, by injuries – you name it, the Tigers have been written off.  But they just keep winning games – and this is the situation they love.  Make no mistake, they are underdogs, but they will be well aware that they can win this if they hammer home their advantage in several areas – the scrum, the lineout and the breakdown.  At Welford Road the hosts out-muscled the west-country outfit, they took away their platform and strangled the life out of the game – they will want to do the same today.

Even I won’t mind admitting that today, every neutral will (or should be) wanting a Bath-win.  A Leicester win would be argued by many to be anti-rugby, but I would call it clinical.  I would call it ruthless.  And that’s what wins you semi-finals.

 

Bath Team News

England centre Jonathan Joseph returns for Bath, who are aiming to win their first Premiership title since 1996.  Head coach Mike Ford has also recalled skipper Stuart Hooper, while Ross Batty comes back in at hooker, marking a fall from grace for Rob Webber – who started the season as first-choice and a real option for England.  Sam Burgess continues his education at blindside flanker.

Starting line-up:  Watson; Rokoduguni, Joseph, Eastmond, Banahan; Ford, Stringer; James, Batty, Wilson, Hooper (capt), Attwood, Burgess, Louw, Houston.

Subs: Webber, Auterac, Thomas, Day, Garvey, Fearns, Cook, Devoto.

Key Player

Sam Burgess.  Of course, all eyes are on Burgess to see if he can conjure up the kind of form which saw him emerge as the hero of English rugby league – but now he’s found his true position at 6, he has a job to do.  If Leicester are to win it will be by physically bullying the Bath pack, slowing down the hosts’ ball whilst securing a good platform for Ben Youngs, and by dominating the collisions.  It won’t be glamorous, but Burgess knows that he has to be a key weapon in countering that – clearing rucks out accurately and aggressively, carrying as much as possible and stopping the Leicester runners behind the gainline.  His learning curve has been slow and steady – but now is his chance to mark his true arrival into the game.

 

Leicester Team News

Leicester make just one change from the side that earned an 11th successive appearance in the Premiership semi-finals by beating Northampton Saints.   Marcos Ayerza returns to the starting line-up at loose-head prop in place of the injured Logovi'i Mulipola, with Michele Rizzo coming onto the bench.  The loss of Mulipola’s impact from the bench is a huge loss for the visitors.

Starting line-up: Morris; Thompstone, Tait, Loamanu, Goneva; Burns, Ben Youngs (capt); Ayerza, Tom Youngs, Cole, Thorn, Kitchener, Slater, Salvi, Crane.

Subs: Briggs, Rizzo, Balmain, De Chaves, Gibson, Harrison, Bell, Catchpole.

Key Player

Graham Kitchener.  He won’t have earned the headlines, but there are many people who would probably regard Graham Kitchener as one of the unluckiest players in the country after Stuart Lancaster’s squad announcement.  The big lock has been superb all season, carrying well and ruling the roost in the line-out, resulting in a call-up to the Six Nations squad, only to see the return of Joe Launchbury and team-mate Ed Slater knock him out of the reckoning.  But today he can be the most influential player on the park – the Tigers will know that they can get on top in the set-piece and, if Kitchener can ensure that Bath’s lineout becomes a lottery, then the Tigers’ will fancy their chances.

 

Key Battle

George Ford v Freddie Burns.  You have to feel for Freddie Burns – the man is a mercurial talent and you would have thought that going to a club with a usually dominant pack and a talented backline would have been the perfect stage to showcase his skills...but it just hasn’t happened, as Leicester’s lethargic forward play and injury crisis out wide has meant that the hosts have had to resort to an under-9 style pass-it-to-the-big-kid gameplan.  But it has, in many ways, forced Burns to develop more than he would have done otherwise – his previous weaknesses of goal-kicking and game management have improved beyond recognition this year.  And it’s the same for Ford, who has seen himself rise to England 10 shirt – both men are pure talents with vision and an arsenal of tricks at their disposal, but for much of the game, when the pressure is on, today will be about control. 

Prediction

They say lightning doesn’t strike twice and I’m going to go out of my way early doors and say that we won’t have another 45 – 0 thrashing on our hands.  Leicester were bullied and outfought that day, but their displays in the return fixture and, more recently, against Wasps, leads me to think that they will not let that happen again.  The opening 20 minutes will be brutal and critical – if Bath get ahead, I think they will win comfortably as Leicester don’t look like they have the ability to chase a game.  But if it’s tight, it will go right down to the wire.  Bath, though, have enough firepower and spark to defeat the visitors and I expect them to show that they’ve got the backbone now to take that elusive next step to English rugby’s biggest stage.  Bath by 7.

Premiership Review - Leicester Tigers 22 - 14 Northampton Saints

It’s not very often that you find a Leicester v Northampton game which is overshadowed by off-field events, but that was the case this time around as the fixture at Welford Road found itself superseded by playoff ramifications, Saints’ selection of players and Manu Tuilagi’s antics after a few shandies on a night out.   

Despite the second-string Saints line-up (with top spot already assured) and the shadow of the Manu Tuilagi saga hanging over Welford Road, there was a typical atmosphere for a Midlands derby in Leicester and the ferocity of the opening hits demonstrated that neither set of players were considering anything else apart from attempting to obliterate each other.  That was especially apparent in the early stages when Leicester looked to carry on the intensity and ambition of their impressive win over Wasps, pushing the ball wide and finding space – only for Niki Goneva to be clattered by Sam Dickinson, who was harshly penalised for a no-arms tackle.  From there, the hosts built field position and forced an offside, allowing Freddie Burns to nudge over the first points of the day. The lead didn’t last long though, as Alex Corbisiero got the better of Dan Cole in the scrum – moments after being on the receiving end – to allow James Wilson a simple penalty shot to level things up.  It would turn out to be Cole’s only black mark on what would prove to be a sterling display by the England tighthead. 

The Tigers were still in control though and, after Cole had gone close and they forced a lineout close to the Saints line, the hosts executed a shift drive perfectly for Jordan Crane to bundle over into in the corner.  Burns missed the conversion, but the Tigers were in control and looking ominous.

Any inkling that this Saints second-string side might be overran, however, was quickly quashed as the visitors began to take a strangle-hold on the game, doing well to pinch Tigers’ ball on several occasions with Mike Haywood a particularly troublesome thorn in the hosts’ side.  Although the defence was strong and Northampton never really looked like scoring, they put on enough pressure to earn themselves 2 shots at goal, which Wilson duly slotted to give his side a 1 point lead. 

The Tigers did come back into it, with Mat Tait, Christian Loamanu and Ed Slater all making good metres, but the finishing touch all of a sudden wasn’t there, and the crowd was subjected to 5 minutes of collapsed and re-set scrums to finish the half with.

Leicester finally did get some more points on the board after the restart, with a well-struck Burns penalty, before Ben Youngs went close with a dart by the posts, only to be held up by a superb doubt tackle by Corbisiero and Dickinson.  They may have repelled that attack, but the next 10 minutes saw Cole and substitute Marcos Ayerza – in particular – place unbearable pressure on the Saints scrum to force them into conceding penalty after penalty.  In a farcical turn of events, Jim Mallinder hauled off Salesi Ma’afu when he was on the cusp of being yellow-carded, only for his substitute Gareth Denman to be sent to the sin-bin immediately for committing the same offence.  Ma’afu found himself straight back on the field – and then straight back off it, as referee Matt Carley once again produced a yellow card to reduce Saints to 13 – but there was still no penalty try.  Despite the fact that I’m sure Corbisiero used to be a tighthead, Carley was informed there was no suitable scrummager available and the game would have to resort to uncontested scrums – much to Leicester’s frustration, who had to settle for another Burns penalty as the only reward for their efforts.

Leicester did immediately take advantage of the underpowered Saints, however, surging back into enemy territory and giving Niall Morris the space to dart around Ahsee Tuala to put the hosts 10 points ahead, and soon extended that further with a Tommy Bell – on for the injured Freddie Burns – penalty to all but seal the game.

The rest of the game was a bit of a non-event as both sides realised that there was not a huge amount to play for, but it was the visitors who had the last hurrah as they began to find gaps in a tired defence, creating a huge overlap for Tom Stephenson to coast over on the left for an unconverted try.

It left the score as a comfortable, but unconvincing, 22 – 14 for Leicester.  But how many times have we said that this season?  And they do have a habit of digging deeper than others when it really counts.

Premiership Preview - Leicester Tigers v Northampton Saints

I sometimes wonder at how heartless the fixtures secretary is at Premiership Rugby.  Usually it's just for relatively minor cruelties, like having to visit Salford and Newcastle on consecutive weeks in January.  This time, however, he or she has taken it to a whole new level.  You see, Leicester and Northampton games are usually excruciatingly tense on their own, without the need for any end of season connotations thrown into the mix but, as it transpires, we are now faced with a local derby which is essentially a must win game - lose, and the season is over.  Well, for Leicester at least.

Of course, it's a very different story for Saints fans, having seen their side cruise through the season on top the pile to go into this weekend as uncatchable leaders with a game to spare.  They don't need anything out of this game, but it was still slightly surprising to see Jim Mallinder pick a largely second string side - partially because it's the Midlands derby and there's always a huge pressure to win, and partly because you just get a sense that they're not quite as dominant now as they were earlier in the season. Don't get me wrong, they're still playing some very, very good rugby but, compared to the unplayable aura they had pre-Christmas, I do get a sense that there are some vulnerabilities now - as Exeter showed a little while ago. That said, the argument of not risking key players in what is technically a dead rubber is a compelling one and, having dominated the league, Mallinder has earned the right to pick a weakened side for this. The question is now, how will his side play? Will they come to have a go, to try and win? Or will their brief be to just 'rough up' their bitter rivals with one eye on a future encounter? Perhaps in this day of professional sport, the former is more likely.

Leicester in fairness would not change their attitude no matter who was selected - from the depths of pessimism leading into last week's game against in-form Wasps, their best display of the seen has seen a resurgence of optimism that the real Tigers are beginning to emerge from hibernation. The physicality at the breakdown last week was relentless and the hosts will have no problem getting up for this, given the opposition and the circumstances, and the fans thrive on this winner takes all situation - essentially, any sort of win will see the Tigers qualify in third, and with Exeter and Saracens expected to win with bonus points, a loss or draw would see them drop out of the playoffs entirely.  The stakes are higher than they have been for a while but, after the season they have had, the Tigers will thrive on that.  They always do.

 

God bless that horrible fixture man.  He may not care about our heart rates, but he knows how to set the stage.

Note: It would feel remiss of me not to at least mention Manu Tuilagi's actions, which have seen the England centre ruled out of the World Cup by Stuart Lancaster.  The story is that he had an altercation with a taxi driver, grabbing him by the throat and kicking his wing mirror, before pushing two female police officers when they intervened - it is the kind of loutish behaviour we have all seen on a Saturday night in town, and for Manu to act in that way is both disgraceful and incredibly disappointing from a man who seemed to have really matured over the last few years.  Anyone who, like me, grew up in Leicester, will know the Tuilagi boys are absolute gents when sober but after a few shandies they are renowned for getting a bit 'fighty'. He would do well to stay off the sauce for a while, even if this is this was partially an outlet of aggression after a frustrating year on the sidelines. There's no excuse for what he did though and it has dampened the spirits of the Welford Road faithful - but, if there is any silver lining it is that he will hopefully take his punishment on the chin, work to make it up to the community and return a more mature and responsible individual (as Danny Care did after being convicted of drink driving).  Perhaps a summer on the sidelines will help him fully recover from his injuries as well and we can look forward to seeing the best of Manu Tuilagi as a player and a person next season.

Leicester Team News

Ed Slater and Christian Loamanu make their first Premiership starts of the season after injury ravaged terms – Slater is of course the club captain, but Ben Youngs remains skipper having thrived in the role this season.   Slater returned after injury against Wasps and starts instead of the injured Geoff Parling and Loamanu replaces suspended centre Seremaia Bai.

 Starting Line up:  Morris; Goneva, Tait, Loamanu, Thompstone; Burns, Ben Youngs (capt); Mulipola, Tom Youngs, Cole, Thorn, Kitchener, Slater, Salvi, Crane.

Subs: Thacker, Ayerza, Balmain, De Chaves, Gibson, Harrison, Bell, Roberts.

 

Key Player

Christian Loamanu.  Richard Cockerill has come in for some stick this season, and a fair amount of it would be justified – however, some issues were out of hands.  You could see the thinking in bringing in Loamanu – the powerful Japanese international would be a readymade replacement for Manu Tuilagi when away on England duty, but instead both have been crocked for large parts of the year and, as such, the new signing makes his first start in the last game of the regular season.  On paper, the centre pairing of Loamanu and Tait looks tasty – with a delightful mix of power and pace – but a lot will depend on how quickly the big man gets up to speed with life in spotlight.  If he plays to his potential and hits the gainline off Burns’ shoulder, then his power could cause Saints’ young pair of centres a lot of problems this afternoon.

 

Northampton Team News

Leaders Northampton make 13 changes to the side that beat London Welsh, taking full advantage of the opportunity to rest some of their big names.  Ahsee Tuala and Jamie Elliott keep their starting places, while captain Dylan Hartley is on the bench.

Starting Line up:  Tuala; Elliott, Waldouck, Stephenson, Collins; Wilson, Dickson; Corbisiero, Haywood (capt), Ma'afu, Dickinson, Craig, Dowson (capt), Harrison, Fisher.

Subs: Hartley, Waller, Denman, Day, Nutley, Fotuali'i, Oliver, Packman.                 

 

Key Player

James Wilson.  I have to say I’m a big fan of the versatile Kiwi – he’s just the kind of player that every club needs; he may not make too many headlines, but he steps up whenever asked and invariably does a great job.  In many ways he’s a similar player to Leicester’s Scott Hamilton in that he isn’t blessed with the greatest natural attributes but he has a brilliant rugby brain and a great all-round skillset – it’s for these reasons that he’s filled in at fullback, on the wing, in the centre and now at fly half for the Saints.  His decision making will be put under severe pressure by a hungry Leicester defence and, although he has the skillset to deal with it, with an inexperienced backline outside him he cannot afford to be indecisive – or make many mistakes.

 

Key Battle

Ed Slater v Phil Dowson.  It was great to see the big Leicester lock back on the pitch last week, and the big man impressed with his physicality at the breakdown off the bench.  It will be interesting to see how he handles starting a game after so long out, but he’s been picked at blindside to lend extra beef when required and to pressurise the lineout from the off.  Dowson, meanwhile, is a very different player – sort of in the Chris Robshaw mould in that he likes working as a link man and doing the ‘dirty work’.  The problem for Dowson is, however, that he is part of a fairly modestly-sized pack and it means he will need to do a lot more carrying than usual.  And, as ever, the ability to bully the breakdown is key and the arm-wrestle between these two will go a long way towards stifling the opposition attack and speeding up their own.

 

Prediction

This fixture always stands out as the game of the season, and as the final fixture – a must-win for Leicester – the buzz around this game has been phenomenal.  Unfortunately, some of the sting has been taken out of it by both Mallinder’s selection (which he has every right to make) and Tuilagi’s misdemeanour, which has dampened the mood of a Welford Road that is sensing a late resurgence.  It will be interesting to see how Saints approach this game – will they have a crack or will they look to frustrate and niggle – but either way, Leicester should win against a largely second XV.  And for the record, I would have gone for  a home win even if the Saints were at full strength.  Welford Road is not a happy place to visit at this time of year.  Tigers by 12.

Premiership Review - Wasps 21 - 26 Leicester Tigers

I’ve watched a few Wasps v Leicester games in my time.  They were usually at the classic old-school rugby theatre that is Welford Road, the slightly run-down but endearing Adams Park or, more often than not, at Twickenham itself.  It therefore felt slightly odd to see the two sides lining up in a shiny, modern stadium where the toilets actually had running water and the food selection ran beyond tooth-breakingly tough miscellaneous meat pies, but would the rugby – particularly in a game of such magnitude which could end either team’s title challenge – be any different?

Yes, the players may have changed and the setting was an entirely new one, but within the opening minute of the game it was clear that this was going to be an old-fashioned slug-fest that harked back to those heady days of champions v champions a decade ago.  The intensity was up on your average Premiership game by a good couple of notches, indicative of two old rivals who now have to live next door to one another – although Wasps didn’t help themselves by playing “What’s new pussycat” by Tom Jones as the visitors ran out onto the pitch.  Mildly amusing?  Sure.  But when a Tiger is backed into a corner, it’s generally not the best idea to poke it with a stick.

One of the eye-catching selections in the Tigers’ line up had been that of lock Geoff Parling at 6, and the England man played his part in helping his side to pinch a Wasps’ lineout in enemy territory and force an offside penalty, which Freddie Burns knocked over for an early lead.  It was a promising, pragmatic start by the Tigers, but they were soon displaying the ambition and accuracy that has been sorely lacking for much of the season, as Tom Youngs then took advantage of a cheeky lineout move to burst down the wing to make big yards, in a small act of revenge for Wasps’ own lineout shenanigans in the 2007 Heineken Cup Final.  The visitors maintained their momentum with some physical carries and eventually Niall Morris was given space on the flank to hold off Christian Wade and dive over in the corner.  Burns slammed over the tricky conversion, and Leicester had themselves a dream 10 – 0 start.

Wasps, however, recovered their poise and remembered that this was a game they were expected to win and, after Andy Goode had knocked over a penalty for offside, Alapeti Leiua set off on a mazy run from deep that threatened to unleash the lethal Wasps backline and were only thwarted by some smart covering from Mathew Tait.  It was a rare moment of incision for the hosts, however, who were seeing worrying signs at the breakdown where Julian Salvi and Seremai Bai (in particular) were starting to turnover ball in a regular basis – indeed, it was Salvi’s busy work on a kick chase that forced another penalty for Burns to knock over.

The likes of Nathan Hughes and Salosi Tagicakibau were starting to make metres but they found themselves repelled by a furious Leicester defence, where Brad Thorn, Dan Cole and Tom Youngs were weighing in with some brutal hits and, despite 10 minutes in the Leicester 22, they only had another Goode penalty to show for it.  It was a different, and surprising story at the other end, however, as the visitors took the most of their chances.  Thorne punched a hole through Wasps’ defence and quick thinking from Ben Youngs and quick hands from Burns gave Niki Goneva the room he needed to dot down for his team’s second try.  It went unconverted, but the men in eye-burningly bright orange had an 18 – 6 lead.

Just when you could sense that Wasps fans were becoming a bit depressed at this rather familiar Leicester display, there came the turning point – or, at least, what everyone assumed would be the turning point.  Goode had just added another 3 points and, at a ruck, Hughes was making a nuisance of himself and slowing the ball down – in came Seremaia Bai, a thoroughly nice bloke by all accounts but a man with a pretty sizeable head.  The Fijian international clattered recklessly into the ruck, smashing headfirst into Hughes’ noggin and, although Barnes initially gave a yellow card, he upgraded it to red on the advice of the TMO.  Even Leicester fans, and the usually opinionated Richard Cockerill, accepted that this was the correct decision – even if the action was reckless instead of intentional – and, as Goode nudged over another 3 points from the penalty, you got the sense that this was only to be the start of the punishment for the visitors, who went into half-time with an 18 – 12 lead. 

As expected, Wasps came out of the blocks after the break and applied all the early pressure, even winning a penalty at the scrum and then in the lineout, areas where Leicester had dominated up until this point.  But, surprisingly for Wasps, they couldn’t come away with points – Andy Goode, despite missing a penalty shot at goal, was varying play beautifully but the likes of Wade and Elliot Daly were being kept under lock and key by a resolute Leicester defence, with Salvi seemingly everywhere.  Indeed, whilst Daly may have been cut from the same mould as Tait, it was the older man who was causing havoc back in the 13 shirt after spending most of his time playing full back lately.

When Leicester did get into Wasps’ territory, they claimed points through physical pressure and, after Burns and Goode had exchanged penalty goals, the score was 21 – 15 with a quarter of the match remaining.  Then came the good news for the neutral England fans as both Joe Launchbury and Ed Slater made their returns from lengthy injuries, and both had a positive impact – the former straight away with a half break and offload, whilst the latter added to a superb breakdown display which saw his side grab an incredible 15 turnovers.  Leicester were once again indebted to Tait’s covering work to avoid conceding their first try, but another Goode kick tightened the scores – the hosts, though, suffered a blow as Joe Simpson injured his knee taking a borderline-late challenge from Goneva.  Despite that, you got the feeling that Wasps were finally reeling the Tigers in.

But not this time.  After another superb Salvi turnover, the Tigers threatened out wide and, after substitute Christian Loamanu had crashed to within a centimetre of the line, the ball was flung wide to Adam Thompstone for the winger to finish well in the corner, taking the score to 26 – 18 with 7 minutes to play.

Wasps threw everything at Leicester in the closing stages, with youngster Alex Lozowski demonstrating impressive cajones with a penalty from half way to bring the hosts to within a score, but they couldn’t take the final step; their attack brought to a shuddering halt as Marcos Ayerza thundered into James Haskell, forcing a knock on and confirming a 26 – 21 win for the Tigers.

Yes, some things may be different – such as the venue – and some things even surprising, such as the result (given the form)and the sight of Richard Cockerill in near-tears as the magnitude of the win swept over him.  But some things remain the same – Wasps v Leicester remains an epic, and nobody, and I mean nobody, should write off the Tigers when it comes to the business end of the season.

Premiership Preview - Wasps v Leicester Tigers

The Wasps v Leicester games of the early/mid 2000s were always pretty special.  I remember when they were in the same Heineken Cup group and they played out two high-scoring epics, with senior players like Martin Corry and Lawrence Dallaglio commenting on the ‘international intensity’ of the contests.  Yes, Wasps v Leicester always carries an edge – the two best sides of the professional era going head-to-head, there’s always going to be a bit of ‘agro’.  And now some bright spark has had the idea of moving Wasps next door to the Tigers so that they’re local rivals as well.  Oh good, that should calm things down.

There are a couple of other factors which may help to spice things up, too – such as the fact that whoever wins this is in prime position to secure that fourth playoff spot.  And, to be honest, these seem to be sides travelling in opposite directions – Wasps, who fell from great heights to the edge of the abyss, have a new stadium, a vibrant team and are well on the way to becoming one of the richest rugby clubs in the world, apparently.  Leicester may have maintained their place at the top but you have the sense that this has been a side that has been in slow decline over the last couple of seasons – that edge, that ruthlessness, is becoming a rarer and rarer sight. 

We may well see that edge return when they need it most, but perhaps a year out of the top 4 will force the Tigers to seriously reflect on what issues have been holding the club back from its usual high standards.  And I’m sure that Wasps, as their friendly neighbours, will be more than happy to help with that reflection.

Wasps Team News

Wasps are unchanged from the side which won 36-29 at home to Exeter a fortnight ago, but England lock Joe Launchbury is on the bench and likely to return after six months out (neck injury).

Starting Line up: Masi; Wade, Daly, Leiua, Tagicakibau; Goode, Simpson; Mullan, Festuccia, Cittadini, Gaskell, Myall, Johnson, Haskell (capt), Hughes.

Replacements: Lindsay, McIntyre, Taylor, Launchbury, Thompson, Davies, Lozowski, Miller.

Key Player

Ashley Johnson.  The blockbusting Nathan Hughes and the resurgent James Haskell have rightly won plenty of plaudits this season, but any Wasps fan will talk your ear off in the praise of Wasps' big South African.  Yes, he may look like a rather portly palm tree, but the flanker/number eight has proved his worth time and again - not just with his power, but with his footballing nous, his work over the ball and his ability to get about the field.  In many ways, he is similar to Thomas Waldrom, who has been superlative for the Chiefs this year, in that he may not be overly fashionable but he is devastatingly effective.  If Leicester make the mistake of putting too much attention on Hughes and Haskell, Johnson will punish them.

 

Leicester Team News

Tigers' skipper Ed Slater is included in the squad for the first time in a year after recovering from a serious knee injury, whilst Marcus Ayerza also moves from the treatment room to the bench.  England forwards Dan Cole and Geoff Parling are also back in the team.  Cole was rested for the 38-17 win over London Welsh, while Seremaia Bai starts alongside Mathew Tait in midfield and Vereniki Goneva returns after suspension.  Interestingly, lock Geoff Parling starts at 6 ahead of Jamie Gibson for the East Midlanders.

Starting Line up:  Morris; Thompstone, Tait, Bai, Goneva; Burns, Youngs (capt); Mulipola, Youngs, Cole, Thorn, Kitchener, Parling, Salvi, Crane.

Replacements: Ghiraldini, Ayerza, Balmain, Slater, Gibson, Harrison, Bell, Loamanu.

Key Player

Niki Goneva.  The Tigers seem to have given up trying to find some sort of a coherent game-plan this season, but that isn't necessarily the players' fault; not having an attack coach doesn't help.  With that being the case, they seem to increasingly rely on moments of individual brilliance from the likes of Ben Youngs, Freddie Burns and the wizardry of this man.  Goneva hasn't really hit the heights of last season, but then again he hasn't really found the space - but if he gets any room, he is still a man who can make things happen and turn defenders inside out.  If Leicester want to pose a threat to Wasps in this game, they need to create space out wide and get it into Goneva's hands as soon as possible.

              

Key Battle

Joe Simpson v Ben Youngs.  It wasn’t so long ago that Joe Simpson was heralded as part of the ‘talented trinity’ of England scrum halves who were destined to contest the England 9 shirt for the best part of the next decade, but for some reason young Simpson fell away after being selected into the England World Cup squad.  Injuries, inconsistency and questions over his service and kicking game were usually banded about, but after much hard work those questions are now answered and he is now bang in form and still possesses frightening speed – witness his match-sealing try against Exeter a fortnight ago.  He’s up against the current holder of the England shirt, Ben Youngs, who has himself had an impressive season – Youngs is not quite as quick (albeit far from slow) but he is more tactically astute and he has that knack to create and spot gaps from nowhere and, like Simpson, is in decent knick right now.  Both men have their snap back and both catalysts for their team’s attacking game – it will be fascinating to see who can have the bigger influence on the match.  Simpson will know that this could be his World Cup audition.

 

Prediction

We’re effectively back in that pre-playoff playoff position right now – whoever loses here can forget their chances of making the semi-finals in all likelihood.  Traditionally when the chips are down you see the best of the Tigers, but they’ve been so tame throughout most of the season that I struggle to see them overcoming a Wasps side that is on an upward trajectory and high on confidence.  Leicester should aim for set piece dominance and, if they obtain it, they may have a way into the game, but the Wasps eight are not the pushovers they once were and, with the benefit of a coherent gameplan (as opposed to Leicester), the hosts should emerge as winners this afternoon.  Wasps by 8.