Six Nations Review - England 29 - 18 Wales

Revenge is a dish best served cold, apparently.  The "R" word was banded about with glee by the media prior to Sunday's fixture, despite the fairly unconvincing assertion from the England management that the term certainly wasn't on English minds.  But for many, the wound of the 30 – 3 humiliation in Cardiff is still fresh.  A time when, in the eyes of Welsh coach Warren Gatland, the Welsh 'men' walked all over the English 'boys'.  It was a game which turned certain players from guaranteed Lions starters to extended summer holiday-makers.  Revenge was very much in the hearts and minds of everyone in white on Sunday at Twickenham, as their nemeses arrived in West London.

The arriving Welsh certainly looked – on paper – no less formidable than they did 12 months ago.  The starting line-up alone contained 12 Test Lions, 11 of whom had been capped on the tour to Australia last season.  This was a side who could, with sincerity, put forward at least 5 players with a realistic shot at making it into a "World XV" – probably the only Northern Hemisphere nation to do so.  However, there were cracks beginning to emerge.  An unconvincing win at home against Italy, a thrashing in Dublin and a win against an abysmal French outfit raised more questions than answers and demonstrated that perhaps teams were becoming accustomed to Warren Gatland's never-wavering tactics of sending big runners into the heart of teams defences. 

England meanwhile, have played with promise and verve and, despite a freak opening loss to France, have looked a far more rounded and confident side than they did 12 months ago.  With everybody's favourite chav, Mike Brown, in the form of his life and the likes of Danny Care, Joe Launchbury and Chris Robshaw putting in consistently strong displays, there was an argument that they were the form team in the tournament.  Gatland, however, cast doubt prior to the game on whether these boys really had become men in the last 12 months.

It was England, though, who made the first statement in the glorious March sunshine.  After the hosts conceded an early penalty at the scrum, Rhys Webb fired a poor pass to Jamie Roberts and Mike Brown countered, beating 3 defenders from deep.  Danny Care then took a quick tap from a penalty to build momentum before big prop David Wilson barrelled onto Billy Twelvetrees’ pass, breaking through the tackles of Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins and offloading to Chris Robshaw, with the England captain getting to within 3 metres of the line before being hauled down by Sam Warburton.  Despite failing to score with a gaping overlap on the right, after an offside Richard Hibbard had blocked the pass, England were awarded a penalty for their troubles.  The Welsh pack turned their back and walked back to the line, awaiting the inevitable 3 points from the boot of Owen Farrell.  Instead, they were met by the sound of Twickenham roaring its approval as Danny Care spotted the easy opportunity to tap, dart, and score.  It was quick thinking by England’s 9 but abysmal stuff from the Welsh.  In front of Care, 3 Test Lions – Lydiate, Faletau and Hibbard – were walking back to their line with their backs to the scrum half:  not only was this a basic mistake you get drilled out of you by gruff, moustached coaches at school level, this was just plain thick by the trio.  It effectively invited a 5 pointer for the Harlequins man, that soon became 7, after Farrell’s conversion.

The reigning Champions, though, are full of experienced, winning players, and sought to strike back immediately.  They got their chance when Lawes was pinged for getting back to his feet after a tackle as England looked to run the ball out of defence.  Leigh Halfpenny slotted the 3 points, but it was England and, most notably and almost predictably, Mike Brown who were causing all the headaches, dancing through tackles and crunching over the gainline.  Wales, on the other hand, were having trouble putting together phases without making mistakes under pressure, but when they managed it they at least looked dangerous.  A Jonathan Davies step and offload found George North, and the big winger ignored the free Lydiate outside of him to try and chip ahead.  It was a bizarre decision for someone of North’s ability, and as Farrell watched the ball bounce harmlessly into touch, you wondered how significant that miss might be.

Farrell soon punished the Welsh wastefulness with a well-struck kick from 42 metres after Gethin Jenkins was penalised for driving in at an angle at a scrum, before Halfpenny responded in kind after England were pinged at a ruck.  Barely 20 minutes were gone, and the score was already 10 – 6 and, although the points may have been struck in a to-and-fro manner, it was the English who were looking in control of proceedings, despite allowing Halfpenny to keep his side in touching distance.  The kicking game, in particular, was one-sided, with Priestland especially guilty of handing the ball back to the dangerous England back 3 with next to no chasers following up, whilst Farrell, Brown and even Nowell were finding field position and touch with some absolute pearlers out of hand.  Farrell took advantage with another penalty after Webb was penalised for not rolling away, but once again Halfpenny struck back with his own penalty after good work by Jenkins at the ruck.  That came after Webb had put Roberts into a gap for a promising break, only for Davies to hopelessly miscue another attempted kick into English hands.

Finally, though, the hosts found the breathing space their play had deserved.  After Farrell had planted a delightful kick into the Welsh corner, the men in red made a hash of the lineout and, after Johnny May had stepped inside and charged to within 5 metres of the line, Twelvetrees threaded a delightful kick through for Luther Burrell to gather and touch down for his third try in just his fourth international.  I, along with several others – including Mike Brown – found myself shouting “Why?!” as the curly-locked centre put boot to ball so close to the line, but the Gloucester man answered with a resoundingly and deservedly smug “That’s why”, with a perfectly weighted grubber.  If you're going to kick that close to the try-line, that's the way to do it.  Farrell nailed the conversion from out wide, and suddenly England had an 11 point cushion.  Was this going to be a perfect reverse of that emphatic Cardiff scoreline?

Unfortunately, the men in white let themselves down in the last 5 minutes of the half as they tried to see the game out to half time, when they had no need to do so, by conceding two penalties for the faultless Halfpenny to convert.  They were both conceded by Dylan Hartley – the first a completely brainless dive off his feet in a ruck when his side were comfortably dealing with the Welsh attack, and the second a slightly unlucky offside call for catching a ball following a knock on by May, who had spilt the ball under huge pressure from Roberts.  It was disappointing by the England hooker, and disappointing for England, who must have felt like they should have been further ahead as the sides went in for half time.  Instead this Welsh side had showed guts, even if not inventiveness nor execution, and coolness personified in the shape of Leigh Halfpenny, to keep themselves very much in the game at 20 – 15.

And it looked as if England's first-half indiscipline may cost them early on in the second period, as the visitors finally put George North into space – the big winger powered passed Nowell but his inside pass failed to find Leigh Halfpenny, who in any event, was well marked.  It was a warning though, and England responded in the best possible way, winning a penalty at the scrum after Rhys Priestland had dropped a high ball under minimal pressure.  Once again, Jenkins was the guilty party, with Roman Poite deeming him to be driving in at an angle, and captain Sam Warburton received a stern warning about the Blues' prop's future conduct.  Farrell was once again in perfect form with the boot to add another long range penalty to extend England's lead.

Wales were now looking bereft of ideas.  After 50 minutes Cuthbert and Faletau finally got their hands on the ball and made an immediate impact, leading a charge up the middle of the field with Priestland and Halfpenny in support.  But the hosts' defence was so quick to realign, so calm under the relative pressure, that when the ball came out to renowned runner Jamie Roberts, his first decision was to attempt a "Twelvetrees", grubbering the kick through behind the English defence.  Unfortunately for the men in red, the attempted grubber was about as subtle as Roberts' jawline, and Farrell read and dealt with the kick through with real ease.

England, meanwhile, despite not enjoying the possession or territory they had in the first half, still looked the more threatening side, and when Jack Nowell broke free from a ruck and charged up field, there was a moment when you wondered whether the England winger should have backed himself in a footrace with Alex Cuthbert, instead of stepping inside.  The move broke down but, after Wales had knocked the ball on, Jenkins was penalised yet again for driving in sideways and was sent to the bin for his troubles.  How Jenkins could look as incredulous as he did is beyond me – even whilst taking into account the fact that he usually looks angry – as this was one of the most obvious scrum-based yellow cards I've seen, driving in at 90 degrees before the ball was even put in.  It was another example of a senior player losing their cool.  Farrell, however, was certainly not losing his, and slammed over his 4th penalty to take the score to 26 – 15.

Halfpenny – a shining light in otherwise error-strewn backline – responded in kind with his 6th penalty after Hartley had been penalised yet again, this time for a tackle in the air.  It was the 3rd kickable penalty the Saints captain had conceded, and none of them could be deemed as forced.  Once again, however, it was tit-for-tat as Farrell stroked over another 3 points as Jonathan Davies was penalised for using his hands in a ruck.

The last quarter of the match may have passed without a further score, but it certainly didn't pass without incident.  England continued to look comfortable with Wales' attacking game, and one turnover nearly led to one of the tries of the tournament, with Twelvetrees setting Burrell, Nowell and then Lawes free on the right, with the England second row providing a glorious offload to Burrell to give his Northampton teammate a run to the corner.  It looked for all the money in the world that he would get in for his 4th try in his 4th game, but he was undone by heroic defence by Halfpenny, who clattered him into touch a metre from the line.  The Welsh fullback unfortunately dislocated his shoulder in the process – another example of the smallest man of the team putting his body on the line for his side's cause.

The only regret, though, for England, was that they failed to add further gloss to the scoreline, as they fluffed two opportunities close to the Welsh line in the dying minutes after substitute Mako Vunipola had made good yardage.  The Welsh tried running the ball from deep, but were met with ferocious defence to the end – from man of the match Lawes and substitute Tom Youngs in particular – and the final whistle blew with the score settled at 29 – 18.  Score settled being an appropriate term to use, as a year of hurt following their humiliation in Cardiff finally left the shoulders of the English players.

If anything, the margin of that victory, although comfortable, should have been greater.  But England will rue that another day, because for now the focus was on another great Twickenham win against another strong crowd.  The teams had been evenly split in terms of possession, but the hosts made 45% more metres with the ball in hand than their counterparts (596 to 430) – a statistic indicative of a poor Welsh kicking game which allowed runners to carry the ball back without pressure, and one that echoed the dominance the men in white enjoyed in the contact area.  The visitors remain a team stuffed full with talent and experience – this loss doesn't change that – but what this loss does highlight is the fact that their kicking game is sub-par, and has been for a while, and that there is a limited ability to change tactics when "Plan A" doesn't work. 

England, though, can reflect on another performance full of promise.  They showed they have the ability and the confidence to play an all court game, and with the likes of Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Billy Vunipola, Tom Croft, Manu Tuilagi, Christian Wade and Marland Yarde all still to come back to full fitness – and all players who, if form permits, can only add to the strength of the squad.  This is an exciting time for English rugby; a time where lessons almost a decade old appear to have been learned. 

What Sunday told us though, is that revenge is actually a dish best served in pleasantly warm spring sunshine.

 

England Player Ratings

Mike Brown – 8 – Once again the Quins man was England’s most dangerous runner, constantly making yards and kicking intelligently as well.  Best fullback in Europe at the moment?  Definitely, on this evidence.

Jack Nowell – 7 – His best game in an England jersey.  Kicked with far more precision and made one great break.  Dealt with North pretty well overall but will be disappointed with one missed tackle.

Luther Burrell – 8 – Arguably should have scored in the second half but his awareness for the first try was top notch.  Displayed lovely hands and tackled hard thoughout.  Growing in confidence with every game.

Billy Twelvetrees – 8 – Another to have his best game in a white shirt.  His passing was very slick and his kicking game, after the first quarter, was accurate.  Defensively superb as well, rushing up and hitting Roberts early every time.

Johnny May – 6 – I just can’t make my mind up about him.  The headless chicken act often creates space, but also often lands him in trouble.  Needs to have conviction in his abilities and decisions.

Owen Farrell – 8 – Again, arguably his best display.  His kicking from hand and from the tee was almost flawless, and he varied the attack nicely as well.  Growing into a real “Test match animal”.

Danny Care – 8 – Scored from the equivalent of an open goal situation in the first 5 minutes, but his awareness and speed of thought injects real pace into the England attack.  Passing game greatly improved as well.

Joe Marler – 7 – A sweet day for the Harlequins prop, as he just about shaded a scrum battle with Adam Jones, who destroyed him last year.  A big defensive input as well.

Dylan Hartley – 5 – To my mind, the only bloke to finish with a black mark by his name.  He was responsible for 9 of Wales’ 15 points and most of them were fairly brainless penalties to give away.  Didn’t see him carrying at all, either.

David Wilson – 7 – Stayed straight in the scrum and forced Jenkins to come in at an angle, which gave England the upper hand in the set piece.  Great trundle in the first half, too.

Joe Launchbury – 8 – His work the at the breakdown was superb and the amount the amount of ground he covered in defence was astonishing.  Just an absolute workhorse.

Courtney Lawes – 9 – A near perfect display.  Strong in the lineout, rib-crackingly tough in defence, quick out of the line and even surprisingly deft with the ball in hand, Lawes cemented his reputation as a world-class lock.  Man of the match.

Tom Wood – 8 – His best display of the Six Nations.  He was everywhere in defence, topping the England tackle charts and was a constant pest at the breakdown.  I like his new beard, too.

Chris Robshaw – 7 – Not at his most impressive, but the England captain still led by example by playing with energy and intelligence throughout.  Never gave the Welsh breakdown a chance to settle.

Ben Morgan – 8 – On first viewing I thought he was merely solid, but then I watched again and realised that the Gloucester man was a key link in the England attack, passing like a centre and making yards when required.  His control at the back of the scrum and work in defence was exemplary, as well.

Subs Used

Tom Youngs – 6 – An impressive cameo, making a couple of huge hits in defence as the game wore on.

Mako Vunipola – 6 – Like Youngs, made a positive impact during the short time he was on, despite struggling in the first scrum.  Carried strongly.

Henry Thomas – Not enough time to make an impact.

Dave Attwood – Not enough time to make an impact.

Tom Johnson – Not enough time to make an impact.

Lee Dickson – Not enough time to make an impact.

George Ford – Not enough time to make an impact.

Alex Goode – Not enough time to make an impact.

 

Wales Player Ratings

Leigh Halfpenny – 8 – Wales’ best back by a long stretch.  Outplayed in an attacking sense by his opposite number but his goalkicking was flawless and defence was heroic to the point it was detrimental to his health.

Alex Cuthbert – 5 – Was anonymous in the first half and a couple of half-breaks in the second period couldn’t hide a quiet day at the office.   Misses too many tackles for a big guy too.

Jonathan Davies – 6 – The Lions centre was undoubtedly rusty, and a couple of handling errors showed he wasn’t quite up to the pace.  A couple of moments of class, including one offload to North, still showed his worth to the side.

Jamie Roberts – 5 – Two words – shut down.  Didn’t get a metre’s space and ruined a great attacking opportunity with a poorly struck grubber kick.

George North – 5 – Really hit and miss from the big winger.  A couple of powerful runs demonstrated his ability but decision making and handling at crucial times let him down.  Owes Dan Lydiate several beers after failing to put his flanker in for a try.

Rhys Priestland – 3 – A very difficult day for the Scarlets man.  His kicking from hand was appalling and sat far too deep to offer the gainline threat he is renowned for.

Rhys Webb – 6 – Webb took a lot of stick for poor passes, and some aimless kicks, but I’ve given him credit for at least trying to make something happen.  He was one of the few players in red who offered a genuine threat to Wales around the fringes.

Gethin Jenkins – 5 – How he can complain about his yellow card is beyond me.  He failed to stay straight in the scrum but was industrious in defence at least.

Richard Hibbard – 6 – Ran a solid lineout but was rarely seen rampaging forwards, which is such a key aspect of Wales’ gameplan.  Chucked in some customary thumping hits, though.

Adam Jones – 5 – Unable to put Marler under pressure as he did in the previous encounter and he offered very little else over the park.  A waning force.

Jake Ball – 7 – Wales’ best forward, and a silver lining to a poor performance.  Ball hit hard in the tackle and looked like the only man who get match Englands’ intensity in the contact area.  A promising discovery for the men in red.

Alun Wyn Jones – 5 – I wonder if he was still feeling the effects of his illness, because he didn’t look match fit.  Unusually slow, he toiled with usual grit but he fell off a surprising amount of tackles.

Dan Lydiate – 5 – Almost invisible at times.  He couldn’t get stuck into the England breakdown and offered nothing of note in attack, although he put in another big shift on the tackling front.

Sam Warburton – 6 – Out foxed by the opposition back row, but he still worked his socks off to the end.  Usually sniffing for opportunities around the breakdown but nothing seemed to go his way.

Toby Faletau – 6 – Barely carried the ball in the first half, but looked promising when he did in the second.  Was prone to fading in and out of the game.

Subs Used

Ken Owens – 6 – Owens impresses me with his athleticism around the park and his accuracy at the set piece, and it was more of the same here.

 

Paul James – 6 – Got the upper hand in his first scrum and found himself making a couple of decent carries, too.

Samson Lee – No time to make an impact.

Andrew Coombs – No time to make an impact.

Justin Tipuric – No time to make an impact.

Mike Phillips – 4 – Spend most of his time dithering, whinging or kicking poorly.  Did not help his side’s cause.

Dan Biggar – 5 – Did nothing wrong but could do nothing to steady a sinking ship.

Liam Williams – No time to make an impact, aside from a late one on Mike Brown’s chest...

What else was happening in the Six Nations this weekend?

Ireland 46 – 7 Italy:  Brian O'Driscoll got the best possible Dublin send off after playing a starring role in his last home appearance for his country.  Italy managed one try by Leonardo Sarto in a cagey first half where Ireland grabbed 2 through Johnny Sexton and Andrew Trimble, but the hosts cut loose against a tiring Italian side in the second half, scoring through Cian Healy, Sexton, Sean Cronin, Fergus McFadden and Jack McGrath.  The big win also puts a big points advantage in Ireland's favour ahead of the Championship decider in Paris.

Scotland 17 – 19 France:  Scotland suffered heartbreak at home as they somehow contrived to lose against an appalling French side.  Stuart Hogg and Tommy Seymour had scored first half tries for the hosts, before Duncan Weir through a ridiculous miss-pass that was picked off by Yoann Huget in his own 22, allowing the French winger to touch down for a score.  A late penalty by Jean-Marc Doussain sealed the Scots' fate and, unbelievably, put the French in still with a shout to win the tournament in Paris next weekend.

Six Nations Preview - England v Wales

Lies, damned lies and statistics.  If I’m being honest, I’ve never really understood the purpose of that saying – I assume it’s to highlight how statistics rarely tell the whole story – but we’ve had industrial amounts of all 3 crammed down our throats in the build up to this weekend.  And with good reason too – it’s England v Wales.  At some point in the mid-noughties, the clash between St George and St David eclipsed the Calcutta Cup game as being the match-up that everyone looks out for when the Six Nations fixtures are announced.  With a rivalry that has developed to arguably its fiercest in over a century of competition between the two countries, the media has wasted no opportunities in spinning stories of revenge, 1000 year old grudges and just plain old hatred.  All of it exaggerated nonsense; all of it brilliant theatre.

The lie that we’ve been told by the Welsh camp is that Warren Gatland has been “building the players up so that they have the self-belief that they can win at Twickenham”.  He needs to do no such thing.  If this Welsh side – a team that has won on the last 3 occasions they have met England, that has won at Twickenham in 2 of their last 3 Championship visits and one that contains 12 Test Lions in the starting XV alone – does not already believe that they can beat their hosts, then they are suffering from the biggest instance of delusion since Brian Moore walked into a Wales Supporters Club meeting with an autograph pen at the ready.

The damned lie has come from the England camp though, who have insisted that Sunday’s match at Twickenham will not be about revenge for the pasting they suffered in Cardiff last year; that result will merely be a benchmark on how far they have progressed.  This is nonsense, and we all know it.  Revenge is one of the most basic and powerful urges we have, and you can bet your Nana’s pension that Andy Farrell will be working the men in white up into a frenzy prior to kick off, with abundant references to the 30 – 3 drubbing.

And then there’s the statistics.  All very interesting stuff, but absolutely none of it really makes any sense or provides an indication on how the game might go.  Take the table below as an example:

After Rd. 3	England	Wales	Ireland	France	Scotland	Italy
Metres made	1503	868	1117	1293	859	1167
Clean Breaks	23	9	13	24	11	10
Offloads	35	23	14	52	33	31
Defenders Beaten	78	35	58	69	42	40

From that, it would seem that England are the top attacking side in the Six Nations, with Wales the worst – in particular, England have made 70% more metres with the ball in hand and beaten twice as many defenders, making twice as many clean breaks in the process.  This isn’t the boring England everybody loves to poke fun at.  But to put these figures into context, it is rather surprising to read into the numbers surrounding Wales’ win over France at the Millennium Stadium.  In that game the Welsh were dominant, oozing physical threat and dismantling the French pack, forcing Les Bleus to look more clueless than their head coach in a hopelessly inept display.  And yet, the visitors made just under twice as many metres, beat over twice as many defenders and made 6 clean breaks to Wales’ 2.  And yet the consensus is that they were dominated.  You see, what the stats don’t show are the shoulder-busting carries of Jamie Roberts, the quick-handed steals by Sam Warburton and the momentum-sapping chop tackles from Dan Lydiate.

And that’s exactly what England will be dealing with on Sunday.  Fans of the home side may look to the above table as a source of comfort, but the players know that what they are facing can’t be presented in numbers.  Stuart Lancaster has made the right call in keeping his starting line-up together, aside from the enforced change of Ben Morgan coming in for the injured Billy Vunipola.  Luckily, Morgan is a man in a similar mould to the Saracens wrecking ball, and he will be a key weapon of the England pack as they look to take advantage of a superior carrying game.  Whilst Wales rely on their backs to generate thrust over the gainline, England like to attack the fringes with the speed and power of their pack before putting the ball wide.  They must be accurate in their cleanout to keep Sam Warburton and Toby Faletau quiet but if they can succeed here, they can generate space outwide where Jack Nowell and Johnny May, despite not being the biggest, will fancy their chances running forward into open spaces.

Wales, meanwhile, have fielded an incredibly experienced and powerful side, packed with leaders all over the field.  They are exponents of “Warren-ball” – Gatland’s infamous tactic that may be about as subtle as a Jonah Lomu handoff, but is extremely effective.  It is essentially about getting their big carriers – North, Roberts, Davies and Hibbard – all running hard in spaces, meaning they look to go wide early and get their big men into the wider channels.  The problem for defences is that, once you start going backwards, it is almost impossible to reset your defence properly without conceding a penalty or leaving a huge gap to be exploited.  However, the visitors will be aware that they are facing one of the best rush defences in the tournament and so the handling must be slick, and the lines accurate, or they may find themselves caught behind the gainline.

There are a fantastic amount of tactical battles all over the park, and it would be impossible to go through them all without breaking my laptop in excitement.  However, the scrum is sure to come under scrutiny as an area of potential Welsh dominance, as will the lineout, as an area where England can get the upper hand.  The use of substitutes will be interesting too, especially seeing as Lancaster has made what I consider to be a mistake in leaving the returning Manu Tuilagi out – a man who can make a potentially game changing impact and whose simple presence on the bench could lead the Welsh midfield (the returning Davies in particular) to hold back just 5% in anticipation of his introduction.  But above all, I can see this game being settled on line speed.  The battle between the two Lions defensive coaches is worth the admission price alone, and England will be well aware that if they can shut the likes of Roberts down behind the gainline with their ‘swarm’ defence, then Wales will struggle to execute a plan B, as they showed against Ireland.  Get it wrong, and they will find themselves going very backwards, very fast.

But above all this game is about primal passion.  With claims of arrogance flying on both sides of the border, both teams and sets of supporters would love nothing more than to earn bragging rights for the next year.  And with the next time these two meet at Twickenham scheduled to be in the Group Stages of the World Cup 2015, it’s the chance to lay down a real statement.  And it’s all this that makes all the hyperbole before kick-off OK – we love it; the lies, the damned lies and the statistics.

But there’s just one statistic that will really matter come Sunday night.

England Team News

Gloucester's Ben Morgan replaces the injured Billy Vunipola at number eight for England's Six Nations match against Wales at Twickenham on Sunday.  Exeter flanker Tom Johnson, 31, who won his last cap in 2012, is on the bench, where Stuart Lancaster has resisted the urge to bring in either Manu Tuilagi or Marland Yarde for Alex Goode.

Starting Line up:  M Brown (Harlequins); J Nowell (Exeter), L Burrell (Northampton), B Twelvetrees (Gloucester), J May (Gloucester); O Farrell (Saracens), D Care (Harlequins); J Marler (Harlequins), D Hartley (Northampton), D Wilson (Bath), J Launchbury (Wasps), C Lawes (Northampton), T Wood (Northampton), C Robshaw (Harlequins, capt), B Morgan (Gloucester).

Subs: T Youngs (Leicester), M Vunipola (Saracens), H Thomas (Sale), D Attwood (Bath), T Johnson (Exeter), L Dickson (Northampton), G Ford (Bath), A Goode (Saracens).

Key Player

Ben Morgan.  The big Gloucester number 8 seems to reserve his best form for England, and fans will be hoping that this is the case on Sunday.  Off the bench, Morgan has been incredibly destructive, making big carries and always looking to offload – not dissimilar to the man he replaces, Billy Vunipola – but his work with the ball in hand and ability to break tackles is never in question.  His workrate, however, is.  Vunipola was England's top carrier, and he went flat out for 60-odd minutes in the knowledge that he would be replaced by the Gloucester man with a quarter of the game still to play.  With no recognised explosive ball-carrier on the bench, Morgan will have to get through the same amount of work as Vunipola but push himself through the full 80 minutes – a real test of his fitness and conditioning.  England have a faster, stronger ball-carrying pack that will target the fringes and Rhys Priestland's channel, and Morgan must be at the heart of this effort all game.

Wales Team News

Jonathan Davies is back in the Wales side for the first time since November to face England in the Six Nations at Twickenham on Sunday.  The Scarlets centre has played only two halves of rugby since suffering a chest injury against South Africa.  Davies, 25, is one of two changes from the side which beat France 27-6, with lock Alun Wyn Jones, 28, back after recovering from a foot infection.  Rhys Webb remains at scrum-half ahead of Mike Phillips, who is on the bench.   There is one positional change in the backline. With Davies returning to partner Jamie Roberts at centre, George North reverts to the wing with versatile Scarlet Liam Williams back on the bench.

 

Starting Line up: Leigh Halfpenny (Blues); Alex Cuthbert (Blues), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Jamie Roberts (Racing Metro), George North (Northampton); Rhys Priestland (Scarlets), Rhys Webb (Ospreys); Gethin Jenkins (Blues), Richard Hibbard (Ospreys), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Luke Charteris (Perpignan), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Dan Lydiate (Racing Metro), Sam Warburton (Blues, capt), Taulupe Faletau (Dragons).

Subs: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Paul James (Bath Rugby), Rhodri Jones (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Mike Phillips (Racing Metro), Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Liam Williams (Scarlets).

Key Player

 

Jonathan Davies.  Coming back after 3 months out injured is never easy, let alone coming straight back into one of the most intense Test match environments around.  Davies has shown no ill-effects of his pectoral injury in either his run out for the Scarlets or indeed in training this week, and he will be relishing the chance to re-unite himself with Jamie 'Desperate Dan' Roberts.  His power and surprising speed and footwork are his chief weapons, but it was his awareness in the midfield that really set him apart over the summer and in the early autumn; and that's the part that may take a while to sharpen up.  Expect England to briefly test out his shoulder with the hard running Luther Burrell, but also expect them to try and exploit any rustiness with decoys, dragging Davies in and putting Brown or the blindside winger on his outside.  If he gets his match sharpness back quickly, England will find their ability to find space out wide very limited.

 

 

Key Battle

I'm going to cheat, like any good flanker, and pick my top 3 because, to be honest, picking just 1 would do the game a disservice.

 

Joe Marler v Adam Jones:  The Lions Test veteran had Marler on toast last year, but the Quins man has improved his scrummaging substantially this year, whilst Jones' powers have reportedly been on the wane.  It should be an even contest this time around that both men will fancy their chances in, but whoever gets the upper hand in the scrum will set a crucial platform for their side.

 

Joe Launchbury v Alun Wyn Jones:  Launchbury was bullied by Jones and the gang last year, but now the Wasps lock looks like the real deal.  His workrate against Ireland and physicality in the loose were phenomenal, whilst the returning Jones provides muscular leadership in the tight exchanges.  The crucial lineout battle aside, these two are set for one hell of a contest in the murky world of the breakdown.

 

Billy Twelvetrees v Jamie Roberts:  Part of me hates Jamie Roberts.  He's a world-class international rugby player, a qualified doctor, good-looking and, by all accounts, a top bloke.  I can only assume he has a microscopic penis to even things out.  But Billy Twelvetrees' immediate concern (hopefully) is how to stop Roberts before he breaks the gainline – he will need to show lightning line speed and chop him down quickly before the Welsh can build any momentum.  I think it's not stretching it too far to say that whoever wins this individual battle, could effectively win their side the match.

 

 

Prediction

 

With the scores tied at 56-all in the winners of matches between these two countries, you get some indication of how tight this one is.  Wales might not be at their sharpest but the experience they have in their side is on another level to England – plus they have the advantage of being able to select from an almost injury-free squad.  The same can't be said for the hosts, who are still missing 5 Test Lions through injury, lack of fitness, and there seems to be a growing nervousness amongst England fans that their side won't have the experience to deal with the physical Welsh onslaught.  I disagree, however.  If England get their linespeed right, they can shut down the Welsh game-plan before it gets going, and I suspect Andy Farrell will have drilled that into them all week.  I'm expecting a close game, but I'm leaning towards home advantage and a thirst for revenge giving a fired up England a win at Twickenham on Sunday.  England by 6.

 

Let's see what's happening elsewhere in the Six Nations this weekend:

Scotland v France:  80 minutes makes a lot of difference.  2 weeks ago, you wouldn't have given Scotland a fart in the wind's chance of beating the French, but after the last round's fixtures they must surely fancy their chances.  And without Picamoles and Fofana, I suspect the French may struggle…but still sneak a win.  France by 2.

Ireland v Italy:  Despite the defeat to England, Ireland are really in the driving seat now for this year's title.  They should be confident in facing up to an Italian side that hasn't won away in the Championship for an incredible 17 matches, and are without their talismanic number 8, Sergio Parisse.  I predict a comfortable win for the men in green.  Ireland by 13.

Premiership Review - Bath 10 - 23 Saracens

There is a fine line between supreme self-confidence and arrogance.  The best sides in the World are all supremely confident – the current All Black side, Martin Johnson’s 2003 England side and even the Leinster team of recent years.  That confidence is also commonly misinterpreted as arrogance by jealous people – but there is a difference.  To be confident is the mental acceptance of the fact that you are good, and the realisation that your superior ability should win you games.  Arrogance is exactly the same, but without the on-field ability to back that confidence up.  Think of your average office co-worker after a couple of beers in a karaoke bar, and you’ll know the mentality.

Two sides that certainly do have supreme levels of confidence (or at least did, going into last Friday’s game at the Rec) are Bath and Saracens.  The hosts for Friday’s pulsating encounter between 3^rd and 2^nd hadn’t lost a home game all season, and have been applauded this season for the vibrancy of their young backline and their attacking mentality.  A win against the Londoners would not only go a fair way to securing a playoff spot, but would also throw their name into the mix for a home playoff spot as well.  What perhaps didn’t bode as well for the West Country boys was the fact that Sarries were also very confident – sitting comfortably in the top 2, they were the last side to win at the Rec in the league, and did so with an easy 22 – 0 victory back in December 2012.  It is a deep routed confidence borne from victories, and a confidence that couldn’t be shaken even after the withdrawal of veteran fly half Charlie Hodgson due to illness moments before kick off, forcing regular fullback Alex Goode into action in the 10 shirt.

Goode, of course, is himself an intelligent footballer even if he has his detractors over the attacking threat he offers from fullback, and demonstrated his very handy skillset by orchestrating some smooth Saracens attacks in a hectic opening 10 minutes.  Despite the damp conditions and the slippy surface, there was a refreshing ambition from both sides to try and exploit the wide spaces and get around the aggressive midfield defences.  It was high pressure stuff which yielded a first penalty attempt of the night for young England fly-half-to-be George Ford, but his attempt was so sliced it could have quite comfortably been served with cream.

Luckily for the hosts, Ford has shown that he is a much more mature and reliable player off the tee this year, and knocked over a straightforward penalty after 19 minutes to give Bath a 3-0 lead.   That advantage was short lived, however, as Matt Banahan was bundled into touch following the restart and Paul James was penalised for collapsing the ensuing lineout maul.  Goode stepped up to demonstrate his all-rounder credentials once again with a fine kick to bring things level.  But Bath were looking marginally the more dangerous side in the opening period, and it seemed that they had got their reward when a quick throw in from the quick thinking Stringer allowed Banahan to coast in round the posts.  The touch judge, however, correctly adjudged that the throw was forward, and Bath were left frustrated and still level.

To make matters worse, the visitors were beginning to dominate the breakdown.  Despite thunderous defence from Dave Attwood – who left Steve Borthwick eating turf with one particularly memorable hit – the likes of Ernst Joubert and especially Jacques Burger were hitting rucks with greater intensity, even keeping the likes of Francois Louw quiet.  It allowed the Londoners to slowly work their way back into the game, and they took full control in an explosive final 10 minutes of the half.

Firstly, a smart half-break and offload from Joel Tomkins gave Duncan Taylor the chance to give a scoring pass to Chris Wyles, allowing the American to coast in for the game’s opening score, converted by Goode.  Bath then attempted to strike straight back and claim a try just before halftime, but were dealt a sporting version of a kick in the crown jewels when Saracens turned the ball over and Taylor hacked the ball ahead, forcing Banahan to fumble and allowing Brad Barritt – not known for his cultured boot – to plant a delightful kick into space for David Strettle to run onto, gather and score.  It was a fitting score for the England winger on his 100^th appearance for Saracens, and was made sweeter by Goode’s conversion, giving the visitors a 17 – 3 lead at half time.

It was an odd feeling at half time.  It felt like Bath had been in control of possession and territory for most of that half, but they had never really looked like scoring, whilst Sarries had been defending for the majority of the game but were looking ruthless when presented with opportunities.  And opportunities just weren’t forthcoming for the hosts, despite their best endeavours.

Time and again, the Bath backline tried to generate some go-forward ball, with Kyle Eastmond looking dangerous, but Saracens were just so dominant in the tackle area, with Burger wreaking havoc.  The Zimbabwean always plays ‘on the line’ though, and was lucky not to see yellow for a bone-juddering late hit on Dobby’s uglier cousin, Peter Stringer, forcing the scrum half from the field.  Goode compounded the sense of injustice for the West Country outfit by smashing over a wonderful drop goal just minutes later.

Eventually, Burger’s luck did run out, and the flanker was yellow carded in the 66^th minute for a horrible looking swinging arm in a tackle on Anthony Watson.  The extra man gave Bath the chance to lay siege to the visitors line, but they came up short time and again, with Leroy Houston appearing to have driven over, only for a web of Saracens arms to get between the ball and the ground.  Finally, their pack got their reward for their hard battle with their Saracens counterparts, driving a scrum over for a penalty try, but by now the game felt out of reach – a feeling compounded as they were forced to watch Goode slot another penalty just moments after the restart, to leave the score at 23 – 10.

There was still time for Wyles to see yellow for a no-arms hit on Rokagaduni as the big winger went for the corner, but the hope and spark had petered out for the hosts.  The swashbuckling confidence that was surging through the team had dissipated and, when the final whistle went, they were left to reflect on a game in which they just didn’t look dangerous for the first time this season, and on the fact that a place in the top two may well be out of their grasp for now.

For Sarries, well – a win against one of the form teams, away from home, with your fly half dropping out minutes before kickoff.  And a convincing win at that.  I think they’ve earned the right to be a bit arrogant confident.

 

What else was happening in the Premiership last weekend?

Exeter Chiefs 18 – 0 London Irish:  The out-of-form Chiefs claimed a comfortable win over the in-form Irish thanks to tries from Phil Dollman and Ian Whitten.

Harlequins 21 – 20 Worcester Warriors:  Quins handed out more heartbreak to Dean Ryan’s Worcester by coming from behind to sneak a narrow win.  Tries for the hosts by Sam Smith and Harry Sloan were cancelled out by Warriors’ scores from David Lemi and Chris Pennell.

London Wasps 17 – 21 Sale Sharks:  The Sharks kept up their great run of form with an impressive win in Wycombe.  The hosts crossed through Joe Simpson but were outscored as Sale scored two tries through Daniel Braid and Johnny Leota.

Northampton Saints 39 – 13 Gloucester:  A dominant second half display after a tense opening period saw the hosts ease to victory and maintain top spot.  Saints scored tries through Ken Pisi, Calum Clark, Tom Stephenson, Alex Waller and Will Hooley, with Henry Trinder claiming the Cherry and Whites’ only 5 pointer.

Newcastle Falcons 18 – 41 Leicester Tigers:  An impressive second half and a decent run out from Manu Tuilagi helped Leicester find some form and ease to victory in the North East.  Despite scoring tries through Noah Cato and Scott Lawson, Tigers picked up a bonus point with Niki Goneva (2), Thomas Waldrom and Pablo Matera all crossing.

Six Nations - Time for Change?

 

If, last weekend, you found yourself taking in 80 minutes of enthralling European International rugby played in front of a fervent capacity crowd, you could have been watching any one of four matches.  That’s right, four.  My maths may not be past GSCE standard, but I can at least count well into my double figures.  Of course, France’s capitulation at the hands of the Welsh was one such game, as was Scotland’s phenomenal last-gasp win against Italians.  England’s underpant-ruiningly tense encounter with the Irish was arguably the pick of the bunch, but where was this mystery fourth fixture that I allude to?

 

It was well away from the prying eyes of the BBC cameras, and in fact the vast majority of English speaking journalists, in the National Stadium in Tsibili.  It was here that Georgia put on a dominant physical display to defeat fierce rivals, Russia, by 36 – 10.  In front of 54,127 people.  To give that a comparison, Ireland’s magnificent Aviva Stadium holds a capacity of 51,700, which means that more people bought tickets to watch a battle between two “Tier 3” Nations than a contest between two of Europe’s elite.

 

After Scotland’s loss against England there was plenty of hysteria from the media, with some saying they should be “dropped” from the Six Nations.  I didn’t really buy into that hyperbole, but it did – along with the above – get me thinking:  why should any of the Six Nations sides have an automatic right to play in the top tier?

 

 Is it because the likes of lowly Georgia would automatically take a hammering from the established big boys?  In the 2011 World Cup  Scotland squeaked past Georgia and Romania by 9 and 10 points respectively (they were in fact trailing in the latter fixture until late on), whilst Ireland could only win by 4 against the Georgians in 2007, who also pushed the Italians close in the same tournament.  England may have put a few points on both of the Eastern European sides in the last European tournament, but when you consider that Italy conceded an average of 45 points during the first couple of seasons of the Six Nations, it seems to me that these ‘Tier 3’ sides wouldn’t necessarily be the easy cannon-fodder everyone would expect.  Certainly none more so than Italy when they were first introduced.

 

Perhaps facilities may have something to do with it?  Doubtful, considering that Georgia’s national stadium holds a 55,000 capacity and the pitch looked in better nick than the turfs on display at Murrayfield, Stade de France and the Millennium Stadium.  Romania’s most recent match, against Belgium, was played in their stadium in Cruj, a state of the art ground - opened in 2011 - that has been granted category 4 (a.k.a. elite) status by UEFA, allowing it to hold Champions League games and Euro Internationals.  My guess is that it’s good enough to hold a rugby match.  And I’m fairly certain the Russians have some decent stadia knocking about.

 

What could it possibly be then that is holding back at least one, if not two or three, potentially serious players on the world stage?  The correct answer is the obvious one – money.  To an extent, I understand concerns from the Italian, French and Home Nations Unions that a drop out of the elite European International competition would lead to a cataclysmic slump in profits and have wide ranging affects on the game right down to grass roots.  That would certainly be the case if a relegation system between tiers was introduced immediately, but we are getting to a point now where the verbal hot air being spouted about ‘expanding the game’ into a truly global sport is becoming a little tiresome without any meaningful action being taken.  I accept that there are huge profits to be made by the Unions from merchandise, ticket sales and broadcasting rights, but what gives the current Six Nations group the exclusive right to this, especially seeing as relegation and promotion already exists between divisions in the Six Nations ‘B’ tournament?

 

I would propose a 5 point plan:

 

1.       Restructure European International Rugby.  After the Six Nations, the second-tier ‘European Nations Cup’ is in a bit of an odd format – with there being two first divisions (each of 6 teams), four second divisions and one third division.  Make it a simple ladder, from the Six Nations down to Division 7, based on ranking initially so that there is a clear ladder to the top for teams to aim for. 

 

2.       Implement a playoff-based Promotion/Relegation system.  The loser of one division would player the winner of the division below home and away, with the aggregate score deciding whether or not they will ‘swap places’.  The advantage of this is that it will not allow sides to be promoted until it is certain they will be competitive in the higher division and, for the rich boys club in the Six Nations, creates a safety net for their side to justify why they should remain in the top league, should they finish bottom.  It also allows smaller sides to host larger teams in real, meaningful matches which can only provide a boost to rugby interest across the continent.  The timing of playoff fixtures would need fine-tuning – perhaps at the start of the June international window, or straight after the Six Nations if the 2 rest weekends were removed – but it would be the fairest and least controversial way of establishing a true European ladder.

 

3.       Encourage Europe-wide broadcasting of the “Division 1” games.  A sure fire way to get the ball rolling with regards to continent-wide interest will be to encourage channels such as BT Sport to invest in the tournament in return for broadcast rights.  Such rights would be obtained for pocket change in comparison for the amount that they have shelled out for the Premier League and Champions League, but would come with the twist that they could hit gold if one of the ‘big teams’ drops down, boosting viewing figures and pumping up the broadcasting value to well beyond what they paid for it.  It would be an attractive gamble for many broadcasters, and the money would be invaluable for the development of the game in the lower-league countries.  It would also provide at least some form of financial safety net for the relegated team.

 

4.       Redefine the International Window – IRB Regulation 9.  The current rules state that a club must allow a player to play for his country for 5 of the 7 weeks between February and mid-March, meaning that players for smaller nations are often called back for club duty during international weekends – Georgia’s Mamuka Gorgodze being one such example.  Not only is this not particularly good for player welfare, but it also puts smaller nations at a disadvantage; larger unions with more clout are in a position to agree that the starting XV at least must remain with their country for training.  Amending the regulation to enable countries to insist that 15 of their players remain with them for training evens out the playing field as far as game preparation is concerned, and looks after the welfare of players of the smaller nations who are often under significant financial pressure to get games in for their club.

 

5.       Set a Date.  All of the above can’t be done immediately.  Nations need to prepare and put contingencies in place.  But enough of the “why nots”, somebody needs to put a date on change and say “This is when it is happening – you have plenty of notice”.  My suggestion would be following the 2019 World Cup.  But such a suggestion requires somebody with the guts to stand up against the richer nations and demand change for the benefit of rugby as a whole.

 

Unfortunately, proposals like these go against the interests of the Unions who hold the power in the IRB.  There is an opportunity for rugby to finally justify their claim of being a truly global sport.  But I’m not holding my breath.