Summer Tour Preview - New Zealand v England Third Test

Expectation can be a very nasty thing.  Which is why I try to avoid it most of the time by setting the expectation level very low – that way, I can only succeed.  By way of example, I was forced to play cricket with my office against another office the other day.  Now, I like cricket, but I am hopeless at it – as in, truly abysmal.  Batting, fielding, bowling, the lot of it.  I made sure that everybody knew this before the game started and therefore, when I did bowl a dot ball and hit a whole seven runs, I was roundly applauded and congratulated on my achievements; I was still awful, but not as horrifically bad as I had made out.  But England are finding what it's like on the other side of the coin in New Zealand right now.

When the men in white arrived three weeks ago, there was a suitable sense of dread in the air; a view that we might be in for another 'tour from hell', especially as we were missing half our front line players for the First Test.  One very gutsy performance later – which may have yielded a win had it not been for some contentious refereeing decisions – and the feeling changed.  Maybe England could pull off the unthinkable and score a series win in New Zealand.  Of course, we all know what happened last week, as the visitors were undone by 30 minutes of All Black brilliance, but it was the reaction that surprised me – the first rumblings of criticism, despite the difference being just 1 point.  It's the heavy price you pay for expectation – but Stuart Lancaster's side wouldn't have it any other way.

The All Blacks are used to it, of course – they are the benchmark.  They have the luxury of being able to lose veteran Conrad Smith to injury and still be able to bring in his ready-made replacement, Malakai Fekitoa.  Now, this kid is dynamite (see below) and is another example of the frankly unbelievable All Black conveyor belt of talent, and I have no doubt that Fekitoa will eventually become a fixture in the side.  But there is no doubt Smith is a loss – he's a captain of the backline and is the glue that holds the defensive line together; Ma'a Nonu must now step up.  But it's another Smith, Ben, who holds the key to the All Black magic – if he is given front foot ball and space, especially off turnover ball, he will carve any side apart.  England must be wary, and that's before they even start worrying about the return of the marauding and inspirational Kieran Read, who adds another element to their pack's attacking game.

The spine of the Kiwi side remains the same though, but the same can't be said about England who have completely rejigged – partly down to injury, partly down to form – but in my view this is their best line up of the Test series.  Manu Tuilagi is recalled from the wing and starts at centre, where he caused so much trouble for the Kiwis in his last appearance, when he shrugged off Fekitoa within seconds of the Highlanders man getting onto the pitch.  He'll be charged with doing more of the same tomorrow morning in order to give the youngster a rough ride, but it's in defence where England need to be ultra-sharp.  Their blitz lost its zip during that 30 minute period as heads went down and you cannot, under any circumstances, allow this All Blacks side to run at you.  This game will be about leaders standing up and driving the side through and, although the loss of Geoff Parling is a big one in terms of his influence and ability, this is the game where the captains need to stand up and take the game by the scruff of the neck.

Because England does expect.  And they've earned that burden.

 

New Zealand Team News

Steve Hansen makes just two changes to his line-up, with the rather handy Kieran Read deemed to be fully fit after a concussion related injury.  The number 8 slots into the back row with Jerome Kaino moving to 6, with Liam Messam unlucky to drop to the bench.   Elsewhere, injury to Conrad Smith means that raw talent Malakai Fekitoa earns his first start in an All Black jersey having only earned his first cap in the first test.  Ryan Crotty comes onto the bench.

Starting Line-up:  Ben Smith, Cory Jane, Malakai Fekitoa, Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea, Aaron Cruden, Aaron Smith; Tony Woodcock, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Samuel Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw (capt), Kieran Read

Subs: Keven Mealamu, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumuina, Patrick Tuipulotu, Liam Messam, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Ryan Crotty

Key Player

Malakai Fekitoa.  It's not easy to fill the boots of Conrad 'the Snake' Smith, but if anybody can it's this kid.  He's got jet-fuelled boots and good upper body power, making him the kind of player who can make the hard yards and also create something from nothing as well.  He's got a beautiful, swerving running style that is a nightmare for defenders, and so England will be closing his space down quickly, meaning he'll have to keep his head under pressure.  Easier said than done when Manu Tuilagi is the bloke charging up to put you onto the ground, and Fekitoa will certainly have a baptism of fire in defence as well, where he will have to focus on his communication with Nonu to avoid leaving gaps for Tuilagi and Eastmond to exploit.

 

England Team News

Freddie Burns will start at fly-half for England in one of eight changes to the side for Saturday's third and final Test against New Zealand in Hamilton.  Burns will replace the injured Owen Farrell and is preferred to Danny Cipriani, who starts on the bench.   Ben Youngs, Chris Ashton, Kyle Eastmond, Dylan Hartley, and Billy Vunipola all return, with Manu Tuilagi moving back into the centres after the wing-switch failed to yield the desired results.  Stuart Lancaster has also been rocked by the loss of the inspirational Geoff Parling as a late change, meaning Courtney Lawes effectively replaces him despite originally being intended to step in for Joe Launchbury.

Starting Line-up:  Mike Brown, Chris Ashton, Manu Tuilagi, Kyle Eastmond, Marland Yarde, Freddie Burns, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley, David Wilson, Courtney Lawes, Geoff Parling, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (capt), Billy Vunipola

Subs: Rob Webber, Matt Mullan, Kieran Brookes, Joe Launchbury, Ben Morgan, Lee Dickson, Danny Cipriani, Luther Burrell

Key Player

Courtney Lawes.  We didn’t see too much of the human missile last week but Lawes ended the season in sensational style putting in a man-of-the-match (in my book) display against Saracens in the Premiership final.  He'll have been frustrated at him limited opportunities so far on this Tour, but now he has a chance to really cause some carnage.  We saw last weekend how fluent the All Blacks can be when they get into their stride – Lawes' role has got to be to hunt Cruden down and force him to play deeper and deeper for fear of getting hit with the ball, forcing the All Blacks back behind the gainline and giving the England defence more time to organise.

 

Key Battle

Kieran Read v Billy Vunipola.  The importance of Read cannot be underestimated.  The 2013 IRB World Player of the Year combines a superb athleticism with one of the sharpest brains in the sport, making him equally comfortable at taking the ball into contact as well as running smart lines and freeing his unnervingly dexterous arms for the offload.  He's up against the younger Vunipola brother from Saracens, and Billy is – to be fair – a slightly different sort of 8.  You won't find Vunipola attempting grubbers or fizzing 20 metre passes across the midfield, but you will see him carrying hard, drawing in at least 2 or 3 defenders and searching for the support runner on his shoulder.  Read is very much a link man between the aggressive play of the tight five and the more fluent runners out wide, and England will need to target him and test his sharpness after his injury if they are to throw a spanner into the All Black machine.  Billy, meanwhile, could do with taking a leaf out of Read's book and start looking to influence the game away from the heavy traffic – he is a powerful runner around the fringes, but we saw in the Six Nations that he is even more devastating in the wider channels where he can open up some big gaps.

 

Prediction

Both sets of coaches – and players – have spent a lot of the week proclaiming that this one is not a 'dead rubber'.  It may be hard to argue in the context of the series, which has been lost, but there is a hell of a lot riding on this for both sides going forward.  I think if England come close and lose again, then there really will be a nagging doubt in their mind about whether or not they really are good enough to take on the best in the world.  The Kiwis will be wanting to build and build from now until the World Cup, and with raw talent like Fekitoa coming in, this is the ideal time to introduce them to a winning environment.  A lot of people seem to think that New Zealand have this in the bag, but I'm not so sure and I think England might just need – and want this – a fraction more.  I've picked the All Blacks by big margins for both previous Tests, and England have come far closer than I would have envisaged.  With that in mind – sod it – I'm going to go for the rarest of occasions…an away win in New Zealand.  England by 2.

Summer Tour Second Test Review - New Zealand 28 - 27 England

There’s always a slight issue when you play the All Blacks in a Test Series.  If you don’t win the first time round, there’s not a whole lot of likelihood that you’re going to be able to do it later on.  It’s like trying to pinch toys off a grumpy toddler (not something I do particularly often) – unless you get what you want the first time around, they’ll probably get very wound up and have a tantrum that you even dared to attempt the toy theft in the first place.  Except when the All Blacks have a tantrum, they don’t roll around on the floor screaming and wiping snot on their sleeves, they respond with brutal physicality and lightening backs play – ‘Total Rugby’ that is impossible to resist.  You won’t get another chance to grab that win again.

In hindsight, that is arguably the worst analogy I’ve ever done – but hey, the principal still stands.  England’s best opportunity for a win in New Zealand was, in my eyes, last weekend, despite the lack of so many first choice players.  The problem with the defeat was that the visitors pushed their hosts all the way – they had the insolence to put the invincible aura of this current crop of All Blacks under scrutiny.  They certainly weren’t happy about this, and resolved in the build up to Saturday’s game in Dunedin to make sure that England couldn’t come close again, especially now the reinforcements had arrived.

There was no doubt that the All Blacks were pumped – possibly too pumped.  Two quick penalties from the kick off and the subsequent lineout conceded for offside gave Owen Farrell a relatively straight forward 3 points after two minutes, and then another offside penalty straight from the restart forced referee Jaco Peyper to administer his first ticking off of the afternoon to Richie McCaw.  The All Blacks hadn’t seen the ball at all in the opening exchanges, and they were forced to wait even longer as Joe Launchbury charged down an Aaron Smith kick to launch an England attack which took Rob Webber inches from the line.  Strong running from Luther Burrell and some fizzing passes from Billy Twelvetrees kept the move going, but some strong counter rucking by the hosts turned the ball over to provide some light relief.  I say, light, because Ma’a Nonu could only make 15 metres with the kick and from that lineout, England finally showed the clinical edge that had been missing last week.  Danny Care scooted off the back of the maul, fed Marlande Yarde, and the London Irish winger powered through McCaw to touch down for a superb try.  Farrell converted, and England had a perfect start and a 10 point lead.

That’s certainly one way to irritate the All Blacks.  They surged back into England territory from the restart, with Nonu bashing through the midfield to generate front foot ball and force the penalty, which Aaron Cruden slotted to get the home side on the board.  It was quickly becoming apparent that this was going to be a ding-dong battle and, after Mike Brown, Geoff Parling and Ben Morgan all made decent carries, the Kiwis came charging back to force another three point opportunity for Cruden, but the Chiefs playmaker screwed the attempt well wide.  Soon Farrell missed his own attempt, though, after Nonu had created an opening for Julian Savea by taking a man out off the ball – and he was greeted by a frankly pathetic chorus of derisory boos from the Dunedin crowd for his troubles.

This match was proving to be frantic, mistake-ridden but utterly compelling, with both sides beginning to make serious inroads, without finding that killer touch.  For England, Yarde was looking dangerous, but the big name Kiwi backline – Savea, Nonu, Conrad Smith and Ben Smith – were starting to find gaps, in particular – and worryingly – through the channels around Farrell and Burrell.  Towards the end of the half they started to hammer away at the England line, but a loose pass from Corey Jane was picked up by Manu Tuilagi – who had covered well but not been involved at all in attack – and the big centre-cum-winger set off towards the line.  For 30 metres, Tuilagi looked for all the world that he was going to make it, but he’s not really designed for 95 metre sprints.  Ben Smith, however, is, and the full back charged across to make a majestic cover tackle 7 metres out, spring to his feet, and then steal the ball.  It was, without exaggeration, the best piece of defensive play I have seen for years, but England were left ruing the fact that Brown was not able to provide support as Tuilagi was looking for it, having taken a heavy knock moments before.  Then, 30 seconds later on the cusp of half time, Cruden slotted a scrum penalty to highlight a potentially monumental shift in momentum at the break.  England led 10 – 6, but that felt a hell of a lot tighter than a 15 or 17 point to 3 score would have done if Tuilagi had made it at the end of the half.

It had been a stunning half of rugby, one that underlined England’s credentials not only as a serious player on the world stage, but also as a genuine attacking threat.  And they started with promise as well, with Chris Robshaw making inroads into Kiwi territory and offloading nicely, but Twelvetrees got carried away with the excitement and threw a miracle ball which allowed the All Blacks to counter dangerously.  They swung the ball left, where England had only forwards, and Julian Savea gassed his way down the wing, drew the last man, and put Ben Smith in for a deserved try.  Cruden converted, and the All Blacks had now scored 13 unanswered points to take the lead for the first time.

Farrell responded immediately with another penalty, but there was little doubt that we were now witnessing the All Blacks hitting the gears that take their intensity to a level no side in the world can live with.  Aaron Smith made good yards down the blindside, before the ball was worked left, where Nonu left Burrell trailing in his wake to draw Tuilagi and put Savea in for his side’s second try.  It was hard not to applaud the intoxicating mix of ferocity and grace that is indicative of the All Blacks at their best.  Cruden missed the conversion – his last act of the game before being substituted for Beauden Barrett – but the men in white were now well and truly on the ropes.

Wave after wave of black attack swarmed over the English defence, and only a forward pass and a missed kick from Barrett prevented the scoreline from ticking on.  It was a temporary respite though,  as Farrell was shown a yellow card for not rolling away close to the line (he understandably thought he was involved in a maul), Barrett knocked a second attempted penalty, and then Conrad Smith ghosted through a gap created by Ben Smith to feed Nonu, who stepped past Yarde and the disappointing Burrell to crash over for a score.  28 – 13, game over – and you felt that this could get very, very messy, especially with 25 minutes still to play.

But England once again showed that they are not here to just make up the numbers, and clawed their way back despite the game being effectively dead.  The backline now had far more balance in it as Tuilagi partnered Twelvetrees, and it was a fizzing pass from the Gloucester man that put Brown into space to wriggle his way over the line.  The TMO wasn’t conclusive on whether the full back had scored, but the visitors got the benefit of the doubt to lend some respectability to the scoreline. 

The All Blacks went forward once again, with McCaw being held up over the line after a superb break by Barrett, but it was England who had the last word – with substitute Ben Youngs and Yarde combining well to put Tuilagi into space, and the Leicester man reminded us all why he is the best centre in England by beating two players and offloading superbly to Brown, who fed another substitute, Chris Ashton, for the try.

In the end, there was just 1 point in it, with the final score 28 – 27 to the hosts.   But the phrase ‘one point drubbing’ has been coined by the media – and rightly so.  England were actually marginally the better team for 55 of the 80 minutes, but for 25 minutes the All Blacks were on another level, another planet, at that special point where no team can touch them.  England know they cannot allow their hosts to get into that mood again in the Third Test.  They have one last shot at redemption, at coming away with a win – but based on that 25 minutes we saw in Dudedin, that’s going to be hard to come by.

 

New Zealand Player Ratings

Ben Smith – 10 – I don’t often bring out double figures, but he was magnificent in attack and that tackle and steal on Tuilagi ranks as one of the all-time great defensive plays.  Man of the match.

Corey Jane – 5 – Worryingly invisible even when the All Blacks are purring.  Needs some form.

Conrad Smith – 8 – Classy and elusive.  Great line to set up Nonu’s try as well, and dealt with Burrell with ease.

Ma’a Nonu – 8 – What an improvement.  Gave the England backs nightmares with his running and finished a great try as well as setting up one more.

Julian Savea – 7 – Good finish and some strong carries too, but could have been involved a little more at times.

Aaron Cruden – 6 – Still not in top form, but helped his side find top gear after the half-time break.

Aaron Smith – 7 – Struggled with his kicking early on, but improved after the break and probed the fringes expertly.

Tony Woodcock – 7 – Part of a much improved scrum effort, and won a couple of important penalties.

Dane Coles – 6 – An improvement on last week.  Ran a solid lineout and got around the park too.

Owen Franks – 7 – Like Woodcock, had much more joy in the scrums this week and looked assured on the ball whenever he carried.

Brodie Retallick – 8 – Bruisingly physical and athletic, he forced many a turnover with some fierce hits.  Needs to watch his penalty count though.

Sam Whitelock – 8 – The silent assassin.  Ferocious in the rucks, he was monumental in defence throughout the game and was a reliable source of lineout ball too.

Liam Messam – 7 – Quite game from the blindside but still effective.  Got through a lot of dirty work.

Richie McCaw – 6 – Was having a shocker in the first half with penalties and missed tackles galore.  Great second half display saw him dramatically improve, though, and he nearly bundled over for a try late on.

Jerome Kaino – 9 – An unsung hero.  His physicality set the tone for the All Blacks resurgence and he answered critics of his carrying game with a couple of bulldozing runs.

Subs

Beauden Barrett purred in the 10 role when he came on, whilst Victor Vito and TJ Peranara also caught the eye.

 

England Player Ratings

Mike Brown – 7 – Still not at his best, and could have done more to keep up with Tuilagi in the first half.  A smart finish and great hands for an assist at the end, however.

Manu Tuilagi – 7 – Covered well in defence but just not seen in attack.  You can’t blame him though for being shoved out on the wing – and whenever he did get the ball he still looked dangerous.  Superb work to set up Ashton’s score and he must return to centre next week.

Luther Burrell – 4 – I thought he was OK on first viewing, but after a promising start he faded badly, falling off 50% of his tackles and running in far too upright to sap out momentum of England’s attack.

Billy Twelvetrees – 4 – Another man to have a difficult day.  Some fizzing passes added width to England’s attack but too often he made basic mistakes with the ball in hand and from the boot.

Marland Yarde – 7 – His best display.  Busy off his wing, he still made mistakes but was eager to make up for them.  Great work for his try and a lovely looped pass set up Ashton’s score.

Owen Farrell – 5 – I do wonder if he was fully fit.  He seemed to miss far more tackles than normal and, although his kicking game was in good nick, he didn’t seem as sharp as he has done this season.

Danny Care – 5 – Another man who had a surprisingly poor game.  Started smartly but sliced kicks and needless handling errors cost his side dearly in attacking momentum.

Joe Marler – 6 – Didn’t get the dominance he wanted in the scrum and couldn’t get involved as much as usual in attack.

Rob Webber – 7 – He’s really won me over.  The lineout was decent but his workrate in the loose caught the eye the most – no wonder he was shattered after 50 minutes.

David Wilson – 6 – Less handling howlers and he even managed to get a kick in there, which wins him a lot of respect.  Scrummaging was OK, but no dominance this week.

Joe Launchbury – 6 – A great charge down and break early on, but he looks shattered to me.  Lacking his usual zip at the breakdown and in the tackle.

Geoff Parling – 8 – England’s best player.  He was monumental in the first half and made more tackles than any of his teammates (a staggering 18).  A leader in the pack as well.

Tom Wood – 5 – Couldn’t get himself into the game as much as he would have liked.  Started well but his influence waned as the game went on.

Chris Robshaw – 7 – A warrior as always and made some hard yards, but couldn’t do anything to stem the flow of black shirts in second period.

Ben Morgan – 6 – Not able to have the impact that he did last week.  He was solid, but that was disappointing compared to his explosive display last week.

Subs

Nobody could make a game changing impact, but Courtney Lawes and Billy Vunipola added good impetus, whilst Matt Mullan and Kieran Brookes added power to the scrum.

 

Second Test Preview - New Zealand v England

Don’t get me wrong, I do like football.  I’m sitting here watching the Spain v Netherlands match, and it’s a great game.  Losing me some money, admittedly, but otherwise I’m enjoying it.  But every World Cup I lose a bit of faith in the round-ball game.  And it’s not just because of the high-concentration of overpaid primadonnas who collapse at the faintest touch of their well-manicured finger nails, or the fact that every TV advert from beer to tampons seems to revolve around football.  It’s the fact that it pretends like it’s the most spectacular show on earth, but it isn’t.

OK, that is entirely subjective, admittedly.  But when you have England taking on the All Blacks in Dunedin, you won’t find that sort of brutal intensity or passion anywhere else; you don’t need pyrotechnics to get fireworks from this game.  And after a first Test where an under-strength England pushed the World Champions all the way, there is a real sense that this is going to be a humdinger between two of the global heavyweights of the world game.

For the hosts, there will be a lot of frustration and anger at their performance.  Steve Hansen effectively said that everybody deserved to be dropped after that display – which is perhaps a tad harsh of Aaron Cruden, Aaron Smith and Liam Messam – but you can be sure that that sentiment will be channelled in a way that makes them very, very dangerous.  They may be missing Israel Dagg due to knocks taken in last week’s game, but they are gaining Julian Savea, one of the most destructive wingers in world rugby, and one who has a happy knack of scoring against the English.  Hansen will have spent the week making sure that they don’t make the same mistakes as last week –eradicating the inaccuracies and handling errors.  But to say that the mistakes were unenforced would be to do England a disservice – the set piece was an area where the men in black struggled, and that sets the tone for the rest of their game.  And that’s an area which they will expect to have fixed for this week.

It’s been a quiet build up for the All Blacks in comparison to England – and that’s not surprising, considering the changes Stuart Lancaster has rung, with several players now available.  Kyle Eastmond and James Haskell – both impressive last week – are unlucky to miss out entirely from the squad, with Freddie Burns also unfortunate to be relegated to the bench.  But the guys coming in – Luther Burrell, Owen Farrell and Tom Wood – would have felt equally hard done by if they were not able to re-fill their spots that they only vacated due to their successful club seasons.  Courtney Lawes will certainly feel that way – outstanding during the latter stages of the season, I feel that he deserves his spot in the team ahead of either Joe Launchbury or Geoff Parling, although the Leicester man was imperious in the set piece last week.

But all these changes pale into insignificance with Lancaster’s gutsiest call of his coaching career – to move Manu Tuilagi onto the wing.  The giant centre was in bulldozing form last week, beating 5 players and making a team-high 86 metres with the ball in hand – to move him out of position to accommodate Billy Twelvetrees and Burrell seems very risky.  Are Twelvetrees and Burrell that important, that much of a shoe in, that they justify naming a backline with 2 players out of position (with Burrell usually a 12).  Will Manu learn the intricacies of wing play, the positioning and aerial ability, in less than a week?  I doubt many could.  If I was Steve Hansen, I would pepper the Tigers centre with high balls all day long and probe kicks in behind him.  My gut feeling is that Tuilagi’s selection there is a mistake – but hey, there’s always the unknown factor.  It could turn out to be a stroke of genius.

And there are a lot of unknown factors going into the game on Saturday.  Will Manu on the wing work?  Will New Zealand fix their set piece?  Can the ‘aura’, banged on about so much by the British press, finally be broken?  All of those factors, and many more, leave me in no doubt that the real drama is in fact happening on the other side of the Pacific to Brazil.

 

New Zealand Team News

In contrast to the all-change for England, Steve Hansen has made just one enforced change, with the returning Julian Savea replacing Israel Dagg, allowing Ben Smith to cover 15 and Savea to slot onto the left wing.  2013 IRB Player of the Year Kieran Read is still not deemed fit enough to play, meaning Jerome Kaino and his pet chin continue to deputise at number 8.

Starting Line up:  Ben Smith; Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea, Aaron Cruden, Aaron Smith; Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw (captain), Liam Messam, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Owen Franks, Dane Coles, Tony Woodcock.

Subs: Keven Mealamu, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumuina, Patrick Tuipulotu, Victor Vito, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Malakai Fekitoa.

Key Player

Aaron Cruden.  The diminutive fly half showed some early signs of rustiness but was – crucially – flawless off the tee as he kept the scoreboard ticking over, and his authority grew as the game went on – reaching a point where he took a quick tap and went for the try in the last 5 minutes instead of a penalty; a decision that proved both brave and correct.  This week, however, he will have one very clear brief: bomb Tuilagi.  Obviously I don’t mean with incendiaries – that would be illegal – but I do mean up-and-unders, where I expect to see Ben Smith leading the chase and attempting to dominate the less agile man in the air.  It is an area where the Kiwis could get some real joy but Cruden better be accurate – if he kicks too deep or too short he risks giving Tuilagi space to run, and that will not end well.

 

England Team News

Stuart Lancaster has made the biggest call of his career by moving Manu Tuilagi – his most potent attacking weapon – onto the right wing for his first professional appearance on the flanks since 2010.  There is just one change to the pack, with Tom Wood coming in for James Haskell, whilst only Mike Brown remains in the same position in the backline.  First choice half backs Danny Care and Owen Farrell return, as do centres Billy Twelvetrees and Luther Burrell, with Marlande Yarde swapping wings and Tuilagi shifting out one – Johnny May and Kyle Eastmond drop out the squad entirely.  The bench now looks like England’s ally, with Dylan Hartley, Courtney Lawes, Billy Vunipola and Chris Ashton adding some serious firepower and experience.

Starting Line up:  Mike Brown, Manu Tuilagi, Luther Burrell, Billy Twelvetrees, Marland Yarde, Owen Farrell, Danny Care; Ben Morgan, Chris Robshaw, Tom Wood, Geoff Parling, Joe Launchbury, David Wilson, Rob Webber, Joe Marler.

Subs: Dylan Hartley, Matt Mullan, Kieran Brookes, Courtney Lawes, Billy Vunipola, Ben Youngs, Freddie Burns, Chris Ashton.

Key Player

Danny Care.  Aside from one very notable ‘butter-fingers’ moment, Ben Youngs had a very decent game last week, but there is no doubt who the man in possession of the 9 shirt is at the moment.  Care is the man with the confidence – no, arrogance (and I mean that in the best possible way) – that every 9 needs; a sign they are on top of their game.  England will only catch New Zealand out if they can get their defence out of kilter and disorganised and that means Care has to be as lively as he has been for club and country over the last year, fizzing around the breakdown and taking quick taps.  There’s no danger of England being accused of slowing the game down with Care on the pitch.

 

Key Battle

Julian Savea v Manu Tuilagi.  At the risk of seeming unimaginative, I’ve picked the obvious choice and – let’s be honest – it is easily the standout clash on the field.  Two of the most destructive runners in world rugby are going head to head, but one of them has a distinct advantage.  Savea has been on the wing all of his professional career, and running in tries for fun from out wide, and he knows his role inside – Tuilagi doesn’t.  Savea will look to expose the big man, perhaps looking to his centres to draw him in and give him the outside, where I suspect he probably has an extra yard of pace.  If Tuilagi stays disciplined though, then we are in for one hell of an encounter – I back the England man to win any one-on-one battles with the ball in hand – but it will all depend on his work rate and how often he can get himself in the game.  The simple fact is that whoever of these two gets their hands on the ball the most will cause the most damage.

 

Prediction

Perhaps the easy thing to think in this one is that, now the cavalry has arrived, England can take the next step on their World Cup journey and beat the All Blacks in their back yard.  And to some extent that makes sense – not only have established conquerors of the All Blacks such as Owen Farrell and Tom Wood returned, but the England bench actually looks – arguably – stronger than that of their opponents.  But I cannot help but feel that England will have woken the dragon with their impudently impressive display last week – the All Blacks will not be as sloppy again, and will be hungry to put the visitors in their place.  I also have the very nasty suspicion that Tuilagi be exploited aerially, but I hope I’m proven wrong.  Either way, this one will prove to be an even bigger test than the first.  New Zealand by 8.

Summer Tour Review - New Zealand 20 - 15 England

I
n my preview for this game, I placed a lot of stock on the fact that Brodie Retallick had (cheekily or otherwise) implied that he didn’t know who any of the England team were.  Now, in this day and age of video analysis, I suspect that he may have just been doing a bit of jesting (these Kiwis have an odd sense of humour – try watching the bizarre, but admittedly excellent, Flight of the Concordes), but it certainly summed up the situation nicely as the All Blacks prepared to take on England at Eden Park on Saturday.

Here were the 2013 Invincibles, unbeaten since November 2012, with their last defeat before that coming prior to the 2011 World Cup.  A side with match winners all over the park, despite the fact that world class players such as Kieran Read and Dan Carter were injured/sunbathing for this first test match.  Despite a couple of substitute debutants on the bench (including a long overdue introduction for the superb TJ Peranara) this was the most established side in world rugby, playing at the most intimidating venue in world rugby.  And against them were a side who – apparently – nobody knew, with 4^th choice players filling in at hooker, fly half and centre.  Surely it would be no contest?  Surely England’s realistic objective should just be to ensure that the Kiwis knew who they were by the end of the match?

England actually set about introducing themselves in spectacular fashion straight away from the kick off, with Chris Robshaw leading the way.  The England skipper burst straight through a ruck in centre-field, with just Israel Dagg ahead of him and James Haskell on his shoulder, but his support was denied when Ma’a Nonu clearly hauled the support back off the ball.  It was spotted by referee Nigel Owens, but it was just a penalty – although, to my mind, there is little doubt that it should have been a yellow card, since it was a cynical infringement in a try scoring opportunity.  Perhaps Nonu was saved by the fact that the game was only 2 minutes old, but either way Freddie Burns coolly slotted the 3 points to give England the early lead.

The All Blacks were looking rusty to say the least, with the ball going to ground often and veterans such as Nonu booting the ball out on the full, but they were given a prime attacking position when Owens made his second blunder by wrongly calling a knock on against Jonny May, even though the ball clearly went backwards.  The mistake allowed the hosts to set up camp in the England 22, where they forced a penalty, which was stroked over by Aaron Cruden.

England may had been written off by the majority of those watching at Eden Park, but they then delivered a stark warning to remind everybody that they meant business.  Robshaw and Haskell once again made metres down the left, and Ben Youngs recycled quickly to give Burns the chance to slide over in the corner – but play was pulled back for a slight knock-on by Mike Brown.  The warning shot had been fired, however, and it was difficult to argue that they didn’t deserve a 3 point lead after Burns slotted another penalty 8 minutes later.

Things were going well for the Leicester-found fly half as he shook off the rustiness of a poor season with a succession of devastating up-and-unders and smart touch finders, and it was one of his kicks which forced a scrum to allow Joe Marler to win a penalty, which Burns again nailed from distance.  The men in white were now 9 – 3 up, and Eden Park had gone very quiet indeed – aside from the relentless booing of the kicker, which is frankly pathetic from supporters of a team as iconic and dominant as the All Blacks.

Games against New Zealand, though, carry a feeling of inevitability with them and, as you would expect, the Kiwis began to pile the pressure back on the English.  Cruden’s kicking was putting the All Blacks into dangerous positions, with Aaron Smith probing expertly for gaps, but it was English errors which were giving them points.  Firstly, Chris Robshaw came in at the side of a ruck and then Haskell was penalised at a breakdown, allowing the Hurricanes 10 to slot both kicks to draw the scores level.  With half-time looming, the visitors launched one further attack, with Manu Tuilagi breaking away after collecting a kick ricochet, but Burns was just off-target with an attempted drop goal – the only mistake of a very impressive half for the talented 10.

England had made New Zealand and the supporters acutely aware that they believed they could win the game with even a mix n’match team out, but the hosts were level largely due to errors from players and – it had to be said – Nigel Owens at key times.  But there was nothing lucky about the way the All Blacks started the second period, coming out fired up and forcing England onto the back foot immediately, with Dagg scything his way through the defence to bring the crowd to life.  For 10 minutes, the All Blacks pressed, with Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick making hard yards in the middle of the field, and Nigel Owens yet again gifting them field position with another shocker of a knock-on call.  England’s defence held firm, however, with Burns tackling bravely and Robshaw and Geoff Parling getting through mountains of work, although their line came dangerously close to being breached when Aaron Smith kicked ahead only for Jerome Kaino to knock on with the line begging.

But it was from this resulting scrum that England re-established themselves, with Ben Morgan galloping off the base to charge 30 metres, before Kyle Eastmond stepped past Nonu and Cruden to launch a stunning attack into All Blacks territory, with May and Brown also making good yards.  It all came to nothing as Dave Wilson knocked on in a promising position – for the third time – but the momentum was now with the visitors.  May then kicked ahead with a hopeful grubber, but substitute Beauden Barrett made a hash of the loose ball, allowing the Gloucester man to regather right by the All Black line, forcing Malakai Fekitoa to concede a penalty for not releasing.  Given the fact that Fekitoa conceded right on his own line when quick ball may well have resulted in a try, the debutant can consider himself lucky not to have seen yellow, but England settled for another Burns penalty to give them the lead.

It was a lead which lasted all of three minutes though, as Cruden punished Yarde for going offside with another 3 points, but things were about to get much worse.  Tuilagi made a huge gallop into the Kiwi 22, shrugging off 4 tacklers in the process, but the good work was undone when Ben Youngs spilt the ball at the ruck, allowing Retallick to gallop 40 metres towards the line before being hauled down superbly by Yarde.  The new Quins man then unfortunately lay all over the wrong side of the ball, and rightfully received a yellow card for his troubles, but Owens had demonstrated an infuriating inconsistency by yellowing this offence and not the previous All Black offence, which was closer to the try line.  I am generally a big fan of Owens and I have very rarely claimed that a referee had a decisive impact on a game due to their mistakes, but this – for me – was one such occasion.  Cruden put the hosts ahead for the first time in the game, but the real news was that England were down to 14 men.

Enter Danny Cipriani.  6 years out of an England jersey and, judging by the reaction of the Eden Park faithful, the most unpopular man in New Zealand for some reason.  But he responded superbly, making a slicing break through the defence and forcing another penalty, which he slotted from 40 metres, demonstrating ‘nads of solid iron in the process.  But, I mentioned a feeling of inevitability earlier – and, with 14 men, that translates as certainty.  With Cruden running a kickable penalty, the All Blacks hammered the English line and, although they were held up short once, they weren’t to be denied, as Ben Smith flicked on the ball beautifully to Conrad Smith to score in the corner.  It was typical, gutsy and heartbreaking All Blacks, and another reminder as to why they are the undisputed kings of world rugby.  Cruden missed the conversion, but with 1 minute to play, the game was won.

England went down 20 – 15, and there is no shame in that scoreline.  There will be pride but there will also be frustration – frustration that they could and should have beaten a near-full strength All Blacks outfit at Eden Park with a weakened XV, but they were undone by unforced errors at key times.  It’s food for thought though, and Lancaster has some big decisions to make next week after Haskell, Eastmond, Burns and Parling all impressed despite obviously not being first choice.  I’m not sure if they’ll all earn a start, but one thing is for sure – New Zealand sure knows who they are now.

New Zealand Player Ratings

Israel Dagg – 6 – Surprisingly shaky under the high ball but one run reminded us of his threat

Ben Smith – 6 – Kept quiet but a couple of classy moments were produced at key times.

Conrad Smith – 7 – Quality player as always.  Defended intelligently and made the call to go blind for the try.

Ma’a Nonu – 4 – This should have been the game where he stamped his authority on proceedings.  He didn’t, making mistakes and being outshone by newbie half his size.

Corey Jane – 5 – Effectively invisible.  I didn’t realise he was on the field.

Aaron Cruden – 7 – Crucially, he was flawless off the tee.  Not always perfect with the ball in hand, he nonetheless had a solid game.

Aaron Smith – 8 – The best Kiwi on the park.  Very quick brain and feet made for a dangerous combination.

Tony Woodcock– 6 – Held his own against Davey Wilson but was not conspicuous elsewhere.

Dane Coles – 5 – Under a lot of pressure in the lineout and couldn’t influence in the loose.

Owen Franks – 5 – Joe Marler creamed him in the scrum and he didn’t really recover

Sam Whitelock – 7 – A physical, brooding display which helped the hosts get a foothold in the game.

Brodie Retallick – 7 – He will certainly know his opposition now, but he still impressed with his athleticism and one great break in particular.

Liam Messam – 8 – A brick wall in defence and a real menace at the breakdown, slowing English ball down constantly

Richie McCaw – 7 – Not vintage Richie, but he grew into the game with a couple of key turnovers late on.  Largely outshone by Robshaw, though.

Jerome Kaino – 6 – Solid in defence but there wasn’t really a whole lot else he offered.  They really missed Read’s athleticism.

Subs Used

Beauden Barrett struggled at full back but Malakai Fekitoa looked pretty lively, whilst Victor Vito was instrumental in the build up to the score.

 

England Player Ratings

Mike Brown – 5 – Like Dagg, was surprisingly unsettled under the high ball and didn’t get the space to break free in attack.

Marland Yarde – 5 – Yellow card was deserved but necessary.  Couldn’t really get into the game though

Manu Tuilagi – 8 – If you think England are better off without him – or with him on the wing – you need your head examining.  England’s best attacking player, beating 5 defenders for 84 metres.

Kyle Eastmond – 7 – A fine showing from somebody who is supposedly 4^th choice.  Acquitted himself well in defence and provided options – and incision – in attack.

Jonny May – 6 – A mixed bag.  In the first half he seemed to be intent on making mistakes, but later on he contributed with a couple of threatening breaks.

Freddie Burns – 8 – What a statement.  He was calm, assured and accurate – everything England needed, but perhaps didn’t expect, him to be.

Ben Youngs – 6 – One mistake let him down badly, but before that his service had been sharp and his kicking excellent.

Joe Marler – 7 – A huge effort from the loosehead.  Scrummaged Franks off the park and carried hard too.

Rob Webber – 7 – Deadly accurate in the lineout, but he still doesn’t offer enough in the loose in my book.

Dave Wilson – 4 – His scrummaging was OK, but his hands were unacceptably atrocious, giving away great attacking positions three times.

Joe Launchbury – 5 – Not his best display.  He was smashed in contact a couple of times and he invariably struggled at restarts.

Geoff Parling – 7 – A fine return to form.  Ruled the lineout and got about the park well too.

James Haskell – 6 – A very solid display.  He was physical and energetic throughout, and could have been in for a score had it not been for Nonu’s naughtiness.

Chris Robshaw – 9 – If you are one of the lazy detractors who claims he is not a ‘true’ seven, you have been proven wrong yet again.  He tackled, hit rucks, passed, and made more metres than any other forward on the pitch.  Man of the match.

Ben Morgan – 8 – Yet again he delivers in an England shirt.  A solid presence interjected with a couple of barnstorming runs.

Subs Used

Danny Cipriani caught the eye for all the right reasons as he looked to impress with the ball in hand.

First Test Preview - New Zealand v England

 

It’s not very often that an England fan can congratulate a Kiwi on the build up to an England Test Series in the All Black’s backyard, but Brodie Retallick, the All Black lock, has added himself to Stuart Lancaster’s Christmas Card list ahead of the First Test at Eden Park.  When quizzed, big Brodie couldn’t name one England player, with the dismal effort of “Michael Lawes” (we assume he means Courtney) being the closest he got to picking out any of the individuals who will be trying to dismantle him over the next 3 weeks.  Lancaster can strike one item from the “to-do” list before the first test – I think the team talk writes itself.

But perhaps the Kiwi has a point.  I mean, who are this rabble coming over to take one the World Champions?  The Invincibles of 2013?  If you didn’t watch Premiership rugby regularly, would you really have a clue who the likes of Rob Webber, Marland Yarde, Kyle Eastmond or Freddie Burns were?  It’s been more than well documented that this is a classic example of how NOT to organise a tour – with a schedule tight enough to exclude players from both of England’s premier clubs as they battled it out last weekend in the Premiership final.  It means Lancaster has had his hand forced into selecting an XV for the first test that is inexperienced at the highest level, with 4^th choice picks involved in some spots.  It’s easy to see how some New Zealanders are already making dismissive noises about this England side’s chances.

I say let them underestimate England.  This is still a side with enough firepower to scare any, with Mike Brown, Manu Tuilagi and Joe Launchbury all pushing World XV spots when in top form.  Add to that to experience, nous and work rate of Chris Robshaw and Geoff Parling, the Kiwi-knowledge of James Haskell, and the unpredictability of the likes of Marland Yarde, Kyle Eastmond and Freddie Burns, and you have a side that has the potential to excite.  So much will depend on whether a side depleted of some of their most physical characters can muscle up to the Kiwi pack, which is always so dominant at home, and whether the backline can settle in quickly under huge pressure.  There is a real sense that there is nothing to lose for this England side.  Nobody expects.

The same can’t be said about the All Blacks, though – and I mean that as the highest compliment.  Despite the above, I expect them to dominate.  In addition to the fact that every single player – including the front row – has the ball handling prowess of an England halfback (as a minimum requirement), they also have an established roster of world class players.  With power players such as Jerome Kaino, Liam Messam,and Ma’a Nonu providing the punch and Israel Dagg and Ben Smith sprinkling in the magic, there is not one area where the New Zealanders do not threaten.  And I say that even though the almighty Dan Carter is kicking back on a beach, even though that Aaron Cruden hasn’t been in great form for the Chiefs, and even though that the great Richie McCaw and Conrad Smith have been looking a little jaded of late.  I am measuring them to unbelievably high expectations, and I fully expect them to still be too good for this England pick n’mix XV.

But who cares about expectation.  Lancaster’s men have shoved expectations down the throat of critics before, and they will believe – genuinely believe – they can do it again.  As an England fan, there’s still plenty to be excited about and – regardless of the result – I reckon Mr Retallick might be remembering a few more names following Saturday night.

 

New Zealand Team News

New Zealand have recalled number eight Jerome Kaino in their team for the first test against England in Auckland on Saturday, with World Player of the Year Kieran Read recovering from concussion.  Three uncapped players are named on the replacements' bench by the world champions – lock Patrick Tuipulotu, scrumhalf TJ Perenara and utility back Malakai Fekitoa – whilst Julian Savea and Dan Carter are also both unavailable.

Starting Line up:  Israel Dagg; Ben Smith, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Cory Jane, Aaron Cruden, Aaron Smith; Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw (captain), Liam Messam, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Owen Franks, Dane Coles, Tony Woodcock.

Subs: Keven Mealamu, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumuina, Patrick Tuipulotu, Victor Vito, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Malakai Fekitoa.

Key Player

Jerome Kaino.  OK, he may be replacing the best number 8 in world rugby, but Kaino is no lame replacement and boasts a brutally powerful defensive game in addition to having arguably the most impressive chin in world rugby.  But Jerome is going to have to show off the attacking side of his game on Saturday if he is to fill the void left by Read; we know he is a wall in defence, but can he get his hands on the ball, run hard, create space and offload as Read does.  Neither McCaw or Messam are particularly attack focused – which is why the balance works so well with the Canterbury 8 – so the Blues man must adapt his mentality if the All Blacks back row unit is to reach its usual devastating potential.

 

England Team News

Harlequins scrum-half Danny Care has been ruled out of England's first Test against New Zealand on Saturday after jarring his shoulder in training.  Ben Youngs will replace Care to form a half-back partnership with Leicester team-mate Freddie Burns.  Northampton's Lee Dickson is promoted to the bench just three days after arriving in New Zealand.  Lancaster fields a fourth-choice midfield of Burns and Kyle Eastmond, while Rob Webber, James Haskell and Geoff Parling all come into the pack.  There are two uncapped players on the bench in Worcester full-back Chris Pennell and Harlequins hooker Joe Gray, while Sale fly-half Danny Cipriani is in an England match-day squad for the first time in six years.

Starting Line up:  Mike Brown (Harlequins); Marland Yarde (Harlequins), Manu Tuilagi, (Leicester Tigers), Kyle Eastmond (Bath), Jonny May (Gloucester); Freddie Burns (Leicester Tigers), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers); Joe Marler (Harlequins), Rob Webber (Bath), David Wilson (Bath); Joe Launchbury (London Wasps), Geoff Parling (Leicester Tigers); James Haskell (Wasps), Chris Robshaw (Harlequins, capt), Ben Morgan (Gloucester).

Subs: Joe Gray (Harlequins), Matt Mullan (London Wasps), Henry Thomas (Sale Sharks), Dave Attwood (Bath), Tom Johnson (Exeter Chiefs), Lee Dickson (Northampton), Danny Cipriani (Sale Sharks), Chris Pennell (Worcester)

 

Key Player

Manu Tuilagi.  He might still just be a pup in terms of age, but Tuilagi is now the experienced head in the England backline, and it’s time for his leadership skills to go up a notch.  He and Youngs will form the nous on either side of a very inexperienced back 10-12 partnership, and it is absolutely vital he demonstrates the communication skills picked up from Anthony Allen at Leicester.  In terms of general play though, he is the one player the All Blacks know all about – and England must use this to their advantage.  Launch Tuilagi in between the 12-13 channel and attempt to draw in Nonu and Conrad Smith – the defensive organiser – and you will create opportunities elsewhere.  And, of course, Aaron Cruden should prepare himself for one of the more obvious physical mis-matches in international rugby.

 

Key Battle

Brodie Retallick v Joe Launchbury.  Retallick may not know who he is (apparently) but big Joe won’t care about that.  During the Six Nations we saw the young Wasp weigh in with a series of monumental performances, driven by a ferocious work-rate and eye-catching athleticism around the field.  But whilst Launchbury was partnered by the ultra-physical Courtney Lawes (or Michael Lawes, according to Retallick) during that tournament, the baby-faced second row links up with the intelligent-but-less-imposing Geoff Parling.  It means that Launchbury must shake off that cherub-like demeanour and weigh in with a bruising display against a typically hard-nosed All Black lock, in the shape of Retallick.  The All Blacks are expected to outmuscle the England in the tight, with their lock pairing a key component, but if Launchbury can help his side at least achieve parity in this area then the New Zealanders might just lose a little bit of that aura.

 

Prediction

Anyone who reads this blog regularly (there must be someone apart from my dad...) will know that I am an eternal – and often hapless – optimist.  But it’s hard to look past the obvious for this one.  The All Blacks are too experienced and too slick, even though they are not at their best individually for the moment.  Chuck in their phenomenal home record and you would be forgiven for thinking that this England side will have less of a chance than I have of marrying Scarlett Johansson.  But that’s doing Lancaster’s men a discredit.  Yes, there are a lot of unknown factors in the side, but we know that each and every one of them can do a job on their day, and there’s still sufficient experience in the side to lay down a challenge.  For England to win, they will need at their best and the All Blacks to be well below that level; the problem is, the All Blacks very rarely stoop that low.  New Zealand by 11.