Six Nations Preview - Italy v England

I was lucky enough to visit Rome last November on a weekend excursion with my better half.  It's a stunning city, where every corner is packed with culture, history and tales of legend.  I was also amazed with how incredibly friendly everyone was, doing their best to make you feel welcome in their home town and making an effort to speak English, which was much appreciated as my 'Italian' (for want of a better word) would usually result in me inadvertently calling the waiter's mother a whore whilst attempting to complement the Bruschetta.

I doubt though, that the England team will find their hosts quite as hospitable as I did – then again, they're not in Rome to sightsee or to ingest world-record amounts of pasta, pizza and red wine (at least not until after the game, anyway).  No, they're in Rome to condemn Italy to the wooden spoon, to a 5th consecutive championship loss, and to attempt to claim the 6 Nations title for themselves and, according to some, put 50 points on their hosts in the process.  The Azzurri will not be especially happy about that claim.

The reason for all this of course is that the nature of the title race and the set up of the final game's matches has led to a rather odd scenario.  England, second in the table behind Ireland on points difference, must beat Italy and then wait until 5:30pm to hope that France beat Ireland in order to win the title.  Despite sitting level on points in the table, Ireland are top with a points difference that is 49 superior to England's total, which in turn is 29 better than France's.  If they don't want to rely on the French – and, let's be honest, who does – England will need to post a 50+ point win over their hosts, with 60 points being the ideal number if they want to put together a challenging figure for the Irish to overhaul.  It has led to all sorts of claims in the media that England are going for the big win; now that they have put in 3 good performances, they are ready to smash the hapless Azzurri to smithereens. 

But let's take a look at the stats.  The last 3 times England have been to Rome, they have come away with a win – but never by more than 5 points.  Admittedly, the feel-good factor that surrounds this England team may have been lacking for Steve Borthwick's England side, but to go away to Rome, where both Ireland and France collapsed last season, and to expect to come away with a 60 point win is madness, surely?  And further to that, it would be an insult to an Italian side who are more than capable of turning over anyone in the Six Nations on their day.

But Lancaster will not allow his troops to expect such a win.  Instead, they will aim for it; they will strive to put in the best display of their lives and come out on top.  The strict professionalism that has been installed in the England camp will certainly be put to the test as the newspapers proclaim the men in white as serious contenders in the World Cup.  But they know they are not there yet.  Instead, they will be focusing on the aspects of their performance that they need to get right to beat the Italians – securing set piece ball, building a quick tempo and attacking in the right areas.  The right areas, they will have noticed in Italy's game against Ireland, are around the fringes and through the middle of the Italian defence; swinging from side to side poses no threat to the Italy line.  The key will be to get their big men running in the 9/10 channel and using plenty of decoy runners in the midfield to create space in the middle.  Above all, they need to play at pace – Danny Care is in charge of the tempo – and move the Italian pack around as much as possible; the Azzurri tired badly against Ireland, and the last thing any knackered side wants to see after 60 minutes is a fresh and fired up Manu Tuilagi entering the fray; the Leicester man has garnered headlines this week for his inclusion as a 'super-sub' after 5 months out with injury.

For the hosts, the loss of grizzled veteran Martin Castrogiovanni has been offset by the return of chiselled veteran Sergio Parisse as captain of the side.  Parisse knows that his task will be to frustrate the English into trying to force the game and to capitalise on any mistakes made.  For that, he will need his two second string props to hold their own in the front row after they struggled against Ireland, and for the lineout to be rock solid.  If Italy can secure the set piece and complement this with a strong kicking display from the half-backs – in stark comparison to the kicking game produced by Wales last week – then England will be forced to play in areas they are not comfortable with.  Desperation sets in, the 'sevens-style' gameplan comes into play, and that's where Italy can snaffle opportunities, forcing mistakes with big defence.

And you can bet it will be big defence from the men in blue.  England may well be lauded as up-and-coming rugby royalty by certain enthusiastic sections of the media, but the Azzurri will not be rolling out the red carpet in welcome on Saturday.

Italy Team News

Italy change three with Captain Fantastic Sergio Parisse returning and Matias Aguero and Lorenzo Cittadini starting in the front-row. Paul Derbyshire drops to the bench alongside Alberto de Marchi with Martin Castrogiovanni ruled out through injury.

Starting Line up: Luke McLean; Angelo Esposito, Michele Campagnaro, Gonzalo Garcia, Leonardo Sarto; Luciano Orquera, Tito Tebaldi; Matias Aguero, Leonardo Ghiraldini, Lorenzo Cittadini; Quintin Geldenhuys, Marco Bortolami; Joshua Furno, Robert Barbieri, Sergio Parisse (Capt.)

Subs: Davide Giazzon, Michele Rizzo, Alberto de Marchi, George Fabio Biagi, Paul Derbyshire, Edoardo Gori, Tommaso Allan, Andrea Masi.

Key Player

Luciano Orquera.  I have to admit I have a bit of a soft spot for the Italian fly half.  He may look like Manuel from Fawlty Towers minus the moustache but he punches well above his weight (just ask Gordon D'Arcy, who received a hammering last week) and is capable of the odd moment of magic, as he demonstrated last season.  Yes, he is prone to the odd stinker but he will be well aware that, if Italy are to challenge, they must frustrate England and force them to play from deep, which means winning the territory battle.  Orquera managed this in defeat at Twickenham last year and, more spectacularly, against France in Rome.  In that game, everything he touched turned to gold and the French were left tearing their hair out at being forced to play against a stubborn Italian defence from behind the halfway line – he needs to produce a similar display against an English defensive line that isn't renowned for giving fly halves time on the ball.

England Team News

Stuart Lancaster has been forced to make one change to the side that defeated Wales last week, with Mako Vunipola coming in for Joe Marler, who is with his partner as she gives birth to their first child.  Matt Mullan takes Vunipola's place on the bench and is joined by the returning Manu Tuilagi, who replaces Alex Goode with the express intent of causing mayhem in the final period of the game.

Starting Line up:  M Brown (Harlequins); J Nowell (Exeter), L Burrell (Northampton), B Twelvetrees (Gloucester), J May (Gloucester); O Farrell (Saracens), D Care (Harlequins); M Vunipola (Saracens), D Hartley (Northampton), D Wilson (Bath), J Launchbury (Wasps), C Lawes (Northampton), T Wood (Northampton), C Robshaw (Harlequins, capt), B Morgan (Gloucester).

Subs: T Youngs (Leicester), M Mullan (Wasps), H Thomas (Sale), D Attwood (Bath), T Johnson (Exeter), L Dickson (Northampton), G Ford (Bath), M Tuilagi (Leicester)

Key Player

Danny Care.  What a tournament the sniping number 9 has had.  He seems to have eliminated the two-step-pass from his delivery and improved his decision making and, despite the fact his kicking game is still a work in progress, he has established himself as one of England's chief attacking weapons.  Despite the fact he has comically small limbs, with T-Rex arms, he adds tempo to any team, and it is this tempo that he needs to inject on a regular basis against Italy.  Ireland showed last week that the Italians become vulnerable when they tire, and Care must ensure that the pack are kept moving around from the first whistle to create those opportunities in the second half.  He will also be aware that his lack of awareness of overlaps (where he has gone himself instead of going wide) has cost his side a couple of tries, and England cannot afford to wasteful against the Italians in Rome.
 

 

Key Battle

Sergio Parisse v Ben Morgan.  The return of my self-confessed man-crush is not only a treat for the eyes (apologies for getting carried away) but also a colossal boost for the hosts.  Parisse has it all – power, athleticism, vision, handling ability and even a decent kicking game.  He leads by example and he will getting his side fired up for this one, quoting the arrogance of the English media who want the visitors to post a record 50+ points difference on the men in blue.  Because he is the heartbeat of the side, he has to make sure that he gets involved when his team has possession as much as possible and not, as he has occasionally done, fade in and out of the game.  Opposing him will be Ben Morgan who, I will controversially state, had a very Parisse-esque game against Wales on Saturday – he didn't make as many metres as his predecessor, Billy Vunipola, but his defence, handling and vision were certainly a step above.  More of the same will be required from the big Gloucester man, but Lancaster will want him to truck the ball straight up a little more as well.  If the visitors can get their hosts backpeddling in defence, they will be very hard to stop.

 

Prediction

All this talk about an easy England victory is fanciful and Lancaster will have a job on his hands making sure that his side don't, subconsciously, expect an easy ride.  The first half will be incredibly tight and England must focus on doing the basics right and playing the game they want at speed, and avoid becoming frustrated if things don't go their way instantly.  It will be the second half where the visitors should aim to strike, but don't underestimate the Italians under any circumstances – they will be battling ferociously to come away with a win in this year's tournament and avenge their narrow losses over the last 2 years.  Make no mistake, the majority of this match will be close, and hard-fought, but expect to see England pull away in the last quarter (helped by the appearance of certain large-thighed individual emerging from the bench).  England by 21.

 

Let's take a look at the other games on the final weekend of the 2014 Six Nations:

Wales v Scotland:  It's fair to say Wales have been roundly panned for their performance at Twickenham and, to be honest, a lot of it has been justified.  Scotland, on the other hand, have been bemoaning bad luck for their loss against France, but the fact of the matter is that they can only blame themselves for failing to close the game out.  The reaction to the losses tells me that Wales will be more fired up for this one and I can see them finishing with a decent win.  Wales by 12.

France v Ireland:  The bizarre set up of the final day of the tournament means that the majority of England supporters may well find themselves supporting the French come Saturday evening.  However, few would begrudge Brian O'Driscoll the chance to sign off on his career with a Championship win and you can bet that the Irish will be desperate to send off their legendary centre in style.  However, I've got a funny feeling that the French might nick this.  Ireland have looked by far the better team but Les Bleus, written off and at home, are in their favourite position to spring a shock.  France by 2.

 

 

Six Nations Review - England 29 - 18 Wales

Revenge is a dish best served cold, apparently.  The "R" word was banded about with glee by the media prior to Sunday's fixture, despite the fairly unconvincing assertion from the England management that the term certainly wasn't on English minds.  But for many, the wound of the 30 – 3 humiliation in Cardiff is still fresh.  A time when, in the eyes of Welsh coach Warren Gatland, the Welsh 'men' walked all over the English 'boys'.  It was a game which turned certain players from guaranteed Lions starters to extended summer holiday-makers.  Revenge was very much in the hearts and minds of everyone in white on Sunday at Twickenham, as their nemeses arrived in West London.

The arriving Welsh certainly looked – on paper – no less formidable than they did 12 months ago.  The starting line-up alone contained 12 Test Lions, 11 of whom had been capped on the tour to Australia last season.  This was a side who could, with sincerity, put forward at least 5 players with a realistic shot at making it into a "World XV" – probably the only Northern Hemisphere nation to do so.  However, there were cracks beginning to emerge.  An unconvincing win at home against Italy, a thrashing in Dublin and a win against an abysmal French outfit raised more questions than answers and demonstrated that perhaps teams were becoming accustomed to Warren Gatland's never-wavering tactics of sending big runners into the heart of teams defences. 

England meanwhile, have played with promise and verve and, despite a freak opening loss to France, have looked a far more rounded and confident side than they did 12 months ago.  With everybody's favourite chav, Mike Brown, in the form of his life and the likes of Danny Care, Joe Launchbury and Chris Robshaw putting in consistently strong displays, there was an argument that they were the form team in the tournament.  Gatland, however, cast doubt prior to the game on whether these boys really had become men in the last 12 months.

It was England, though, who made the first statement in the glorious March sunshine.  After the hosts conceded an early penalty at the scrum, Rhys Webb fired a poor pass to Jamie Roberts and Mike Brown countered, beating 3 defenders from deep.  Danny Care then took a quick tap from a penalty to build momentum before big prop David Wilson barrelled onto Billy Twelvetrees’ pass, breaking through the tackles of Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins and offloading to Chris Robshaw, with the England captain getting to within 3 metres of the line before being hauled down by Sam Warburton.  Despite failing to score with a gaping overlap on the right, after an offside Richard Hibbard had blocked the pass, England were awarded a penalty for their troubles.  The Welsh pack turned their back and walked back to the line, awaiting the inevitable 3 points from the boot of Owen Farrell.  Instead, they were met by the sound of Twickenham roaring its approval as Danny Care spotted the easy opportunity to tap, dart, and score.  It was quick thinking by England’s 9 but abysmal stuff from the Welsh.  In front of Care, 3 Test Lions – Lydiate, Faletau and Hibbard – were walking back to their line with their backs to the scrum half:  not only was this a basic mistake you get drilled out of you by gruff, moustached coaches at school level, this was just plain thick by the trio.  It effectively invited a 5 pointer for the Harlequins man, that soon became 7, after Farrell’s conversion.

The reigning Champions, though, are full of experienced, winning players, and sought to strike back immediately.  They got their chance when Lawes was pinged for getting back to his feet after a tackle as England looked to run the ball out of defence.  Leigh Halfpenny slotted the 3 points, but it was England and, most notably and almost predictably, Mike Brown who were causing all the headaches, dancing through tackles and crunching over the gainline.  Wales, on the other hand, were having trouble putting together phases without making mistakes under pressure, but when they managed it they at least looked dangerous.  A Jonathan Davies step and offload found George North, and the big winger ignored the free Lydiate outside of him to try and chip ahead.  It was a bizarre decision for someone of North’s ability, and as Farrell watched the ball bounce harmlessly into touch, you wondered how significant that miss might be.

Farrell soon punished the Welsh wastefulness with a well-struck kick from 42 metres after Gethin Jenkins was penalised for driving in at an angle at a scrum, before Halfpenny responded in kind after England were pinged at a ruck.  Barely 20 minutes were gone, and the score was already 10 – 6 and, although the points may have been struck in a to-and-fro manner, it was the English who were looking in control of proceedings, despite allowing Halfpenny to keep his side in touching distance.  The kicking game, in particular, was one-sided, with Priestland especially guilty of handing the ball back to the dangerous England back 3 with next to no chasers following up, whilst Farrell, Brown and even Nowell were finding field position and touch with some absolute pearlers out of hand.  Farrell took advantage with another penalty after Webb was penalised for not rolling away, but once again Halfpenny struck back with his own penalty after good work by Jenkins at the ruck.  That came after Webb had put Roberts into a gap for a promising break, only for Davies to hopelessly miscue another attempted kick into English hands.

Finally, though, the hosts found the breathing space their play had deserved.  After Farrell had planted a delightful kick into the Welsh corner, the men in red made a hash of the lineout and, after Johnny May had stepped inside and charged to within 5 metres of the line, Twelvetrees threaded a delightful kick through for Luther Burrell to gather and touch down for his third try in just his fourth international.  I, along with several others – including Mike Brown – found myself shouting “Why?!” as the curly-locked centre put boot to ball so close to the line, but the Gloucester man answered with a resoundingly and deservedly smug “That’s why”, with a perfectly weighted grubber.  If you're going to kick that close to the try-line, that's the way to do it.  Farrell nailed the conversion from out wide, and suddenly England had an 11 point cushion.  Was this going to be a perfect reverse of that emphatic Cardiff scoreline?

Unfortunately, the men in white let themselves down in the last 5 minutes of the half as they tried to see the game out to half time, when they had no need to do so, by conceding two penalties for the faultless Halfpenny to convert.  They were both conceded by Dylan Hartley – the first a completely brainless dive off his feet in a ruck when his side were comfortably dealing with the Welsh attack, and the second a slightly unlucky offside call for catching a ball following a knock on by May, who had spilt the ball under huge pressure from Roberts.  It was disappointing by the England hooker, and disappointing for England, who must have felt like they should have been further ahead as the sides went in for half time.  Instead this Welsh side had showed guts, even if not inventiveness nor execution, and coolness personified in the shape of Leigh Halfpenny, to keep themselves very much in the game at 20 – 15.

And it looked as if England's first-half indiscipline may cost them early on in the second period, as the visitors finally put George North into space – the big winger powered passed Nowell but his inside pass failed to find Leigh Halfpenny, who in any event, was well marked.  It was a warning though, and England responded in the best possible way, winning a penalty at the scrum after Rhys Priestland had dropped a high ball under minimal pressure.  Once again, Jenkins was the guilty party, with Roman Poite deeming him to be driving in at an angle, and captain Sam Warburton received a stern warning about the Blues' prop's future conduct.  Farrell was once again in perfect form with the boot to add another long range penalty to extend England's lead.

Wales were now looking bereft of ideas.  After 50 minutes Cuthbert and Faletau finally got their hands on the ball and made an immediate impact, leading a charge up the middle of the field with Priestland and Halfpenny in support.  But the hosts' defence was so quick to realign, so calm under the relative pressure, that when the ball came out to renowned runner Jamie Roberts, his first decision was to attempt a "Twelvetrees", grubbering the kick through behind the English defence.  Unfortunately for the men in red, the attempted grubber was about as subtle as Roberts' jawline, and Farrell read and dealt with the kick through with real ease.

England, meanwhile, despite not enjoying the possession or territory they had in the first half, still looked the more threatening side, and when Jack Nowell broke free from a ruck and charged up field, there was a moment when you wondered whether the England winger should have backed himself in a footrace with Alex Cuthbert, instead of stepping inside.  The move broke down but, after Wales had knocked the ball on, Jenkins was penalised yet again for driving in sideways and was sent to the bin for his troubles.  How Jenkins could look as incredulous as he did is beyond me – even whilst taking into account the fact that he usually looks angry – as this was one of the most obvious scrum-based yellow cards I've seen, driving in at 90 degrees before the ball was even put in.  It was another example of a senior player losing their cool.  Farrell, however, was certainly not losing his, and slammed over his 4th penalty to take the score to 26 – 15.

Halfpenny – a shining light in otherwise error-strewn backline – responded in kind with his 6th penalty after Hartley had been penalised yet again, this time for a tackle in the air.  It was the 3rd kickable penalty the Saints captain had conceded, and none of them could be deemed as forced.  Once again, however, it was tit-for-tat as Farrell stroked over another 3 points as Jonathan Davies was penalised for using his hands in a ruck.

The last quarter of the match may have passed without a further score, but it certainly didn't pass without incident.  England continued to look comfortable with Wales' attacking game, and one turnover nearly led to one of the tries of the tournament, with Twelvetrees setting Burrell, Nowell and then Lawes free on the right, with the England second row providing a glorious offload to Burrell to give his Northampton teammate a run to the corner.  It looked for all the money in the world that he would get in for his 4th try in his 4th game, but he was undone by heroic defence by Halfpenny, who clattered him into touch a metre from the line.  The Welsh fullback unfortunately dislocated his shoulder in the process – another example of the smallest man of the team putting his body on the line for his side's cause.

The only regret, though, for England, was that they failed to add further gloss to the scoreline, as they fluffed two opportunities close to the Welsh line in the dying minutes after substitute Mako Vunipola had made good yardage.  The Welsh tried running the ball from deep, but were met with ferocious defence to the end – from man of the match Lawes and substitute Tom Youngs in particular – and the final whistle blew with the score settled at 29 – 18.  Score settled being an appropriate term to use, as a year of hurt following their humiliation in Cardiff finally left the shoulders of the English players.

If anything, the margin of that victory, although comfortable, should have been greater.  But England will rue that another day, because for now the focus was on another great Twickenham win against another strong crowd.  The teams had been evenly split in terms of possession, but the hosts made 45% more metres with the ball in hand than their counterparts (596 to 430) – a statistic indicative of a poor Welsh kicking game which allowed runners to carry the ball back without pressure, and one that echoed the dominance the men in white enjoyed in the contact area.  The visitors remain a team stuffed full with talent and experience – this loss doesn't change that – but what this loss does highlight is the fact that their kicking game is sub-par, and has been for a while, and that there is a limited ability to change tactics when "Plan A" doesn't work. 

England, though, can reflect on another performance full of promise.  They showed they have the ability and the confidence to play an all court game, and with the likes of Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Billy Vunipola, Tom Croft, Manu Tuilagi, Christian Wade and Marland Yarde all still to come back to full fitness – and all players who, if form permits, can only add to the strength of the squad.  This is an exciting time for English rugby; a time where lessons almost a decade old appear to have been learned. 

What Sunday told us though, is that revenge is actually a dish best served in pleasantly warm spring sunshine.

 

England Player Ratings

Mike Brown – 8 – Once again the Quins man was England’s most dangerous runner, constantly making yards and kicking intelligently as well.  Best fullback in Europe at the moment?  Definitely, on this evidence.

Jack Nowell – 7 – His best game in an England jersey.  Kicked with far more precision and made one great break.  Dealt with North pretty well overall but will be disappointed with one missed tackle.

Luther Burrell – 8 – Arguably should have scored in the second half but his awareness for the first try was top notch.  Displayed lovely hands and tackled hard thoughout.  Growing in confidence with every game.

Billy Twelvetrees – 8 – Another to have his best game in a white shirt.  His passing was very slick and his kicking game, after the first quarter, was accurate.  Defensively superb as well, rushing up and hitting Roberts early every time.

Johnny May – 6 – I just can’t make my mind up about him.  The headless chicken act often creates space, but also often lands him in trouble.  Needs to have conviction in his abilities and decisions.

Owen Farrell – 8 – Again, arguably his best display.  His kicking from hand and from the tee was almost flawless, and he varied the attack nicely as well.  Growing into a real “Test match animal”.

Danny Care – 8 – Scored from the equivalent of an open goal situation in the first 5 minutes, but his awareness and speed of thought injects real pace into the England attack.  Passing game greatly improved as well.

Joe Marler – 7 – A sweet day for the Harlequins prop, as he just about shaded a scrum battle with Adam Jones, who destroyed him last year.  A big defensive input as well.

Dylan Hartley – 5 – To my mind, the only bloke to finish with a black mark by his name.  He was responsible for 9 of Wales’ 15 points and most of them were fairly brainless penalties to give away.  Didn’t see him carrying at all, either.

David Wilson – 7 – Stayed straight in the scrum and forced Jenkins to come in at an angle, which gave England the upper hand in the set piece.  Great trundle in the first half, too.

Joe Launchbury – 8 – His work the at the breakdown was superb and the amount the amount of ground he covered in defence was astonishing.  Just an absolute workhorse.

Courtney Lawes – 9 – A near perfect display.  Strong in the lineout, rib-crackingly tough in defence, quick out of the line and even surprisingly deft with the ball in hand, Lawes cemented his reputation as a world-class lock.  Man of the match.

Tom Wood – 8 – His best display of the Six Nations.  He was everywhere in defence, topping the England tackle charts and was a constant pest at the breakdown.  I like his new beard, too.

Chris Robshaw – 7 – Not at his most impressive, but the England captain still led by example by playing with energy and intelligence throughout.  Never gave the Welsh breakdown a chance to settle.

Ben Morgan – 8 – On first viewing I thought he was merely solid, but then I watched again and realised that the Gloucester man was a key link in the England attack, passing like a centre and making yards when required.  His control at the back of the scrum and work in defence was exemplary, as well.

Subs Used

Tom Youngs – 6 – An impressive cameo, making a couple of huge hits in defence as the game wore on.

Mako Vunipola – 6 – Like Youngs, made a positive impact during the short time he was on, despite struggling in the first scrum.  Carried strongly.

Henry Thomas – Not enough time to make an impact.

Dave Attwood – Not enough time to make an impact.

Tom Johnson – Not enough time to make an impact.

Lee Dickson – Not enough time to make an impact.

George Ford – Not enough time to make an impact.

Alex Goode – Not enough time to make an impact.

 

Wales Player Ratings

Leigh Halfpenny – 8 – Wales’ best back by a long stretch.  Outplayed in an attacking sense by his opposite number but his goalkicking was flawless and defence was heroic to the point it was detrimental to his health.

Alex Cuthbert – 5 – Was anonymous in the first half and a couple of half-breaks in the second period couldn’t hide a quiet day at the office.   Misses too many tackles for a big guy too.

Jonathan Davies – 6 – The Lions centre was undoubtedly rusty, and a couple of handling errors showed he wasn’t quite up to the pace.  A couple of moments of class, including one offload to North, still showed his worth to the side.

Jamie Roberts – 5 – Two words – shut down.  Didn’t get a metre’s space and ruined a great attacking opportunity with a poorly struck grubber kick.

George North – 5 – Really hit and miss from the big winger.  A couple of powerful runs demonstrated his ability but decision making and handling at crucial times let him down.  Owes Dan Lydiate several beers after failing to put his flanker in for a try.

Rhys Priestland – 3 – A very difficult day for the Scarlets man.  His kicking from hand was appalling and sat far too deep to offer the gainline threat he is renowned for.

Rhys Webb – 6 – Webb took a lot of stick for poor passes, and some aimless kicks, but I’ve given him credit for at least trying to make something happen.  He was one of the few players in red who offered a genuine threat to Wales around the fringes.

Gethin Jenkins – 5 – How he can complain about his yellow card is beyond me.  He failed to stay straight in the scrum but was industrious in defence at least.

Richard Hibbard – 6 – Ran a solid lineout but was rarely seen rampaging forwards, which is such a key aspect of Wales’ gameplan.  Chucked in some customary thumping hits, though.

Adam Jones – 5 – Unable to put Marler under pressure as he did in the previous encounter and he offered very little else over the park.  A waning force.

Jake Ball – 7 – Wales’ best forward, and a silver lining to a poor performance.  Ball hit hard in the tackle and looked like the only man who get match Englands’ intensity in the contact area.  A promising discovery for the men in red.

Alun Wyn Jones – 5 – I wonder if he was still feeling the effects of his illness, because he didn’t look match fit.  Unusually slow, he toiled with usual grit but he fell off a surprising amount of tackles.

Dan Lydiate – 5 – Almost invisible at times.  He couldn’t get stuck into the England breakdown and offered nothing of note in attack, although he put in another big shift on the tackling front.

Sam Warburton – 6 – Out foxed by the opposition back row, but he still worked his socks off to the end.  Usually sniffing for opportunities around the breakdown but nothing seemed to go his way.

Toby Faletau – 6 – Barely carried the ball in the first half, but looked promising when he did in the second.  Was prone to fading in and out of the game.

Subs Used

Ken Owens – 6 – Owens impresses me with his athleticism around the park and his accuracy at the set piece, and it was more of the same here.

 

Paul James – 6 – Got the upper hand in his first scrum and found himself making a couple of decent carries, too.

Samson Lee – No time to make an impact.

Andrew Coombs – No time to make an impact.

Justin Tipuric – No time to make an impact.

Mike Phillips – 4 – Spend most of his time dithering, whinging or kicking poorly.  Did not help his side’s cause.

Dan Biggar – 5 – Did nothing wrong but could do nothing to steady a sinking ship.

Liam Williams – No time to make an impact, aside from a late one on Mike Brown’s chest...

What else was happening in the Six Nations this weekend?

Ireland 46 – 7 Italy:  Brian O'Driscoll got the best possible Dublin send off after playing a starring role in his last home appearance for his country.  Italy managed one try by Leonardo Sarto in a cagey first half where Ireland grabbed 2 through Johnny Sexton and Andrew Trimble, but the hosts cut loose against a tiring Italian side in the second half, scoring through Cian Healy, Sexton, Sean Cronin, Fergus McFadden and Jack McGrath.  The big win also puts a big points advantage in Ireland's favour ahead of the Championship decider in Paris.

Scotland 17 – 19 France:  Scotland suffered heartbreak at home as they somehow contrived to lose against an appalling French side.  Stuart Hogg and Tommy Seymour had scored first half tries for the hosts, before Duncan Weir through a ridiculous miss-pass that was picked off by Yoann Huget in his own 22, allowing the French winger to touch down for a score.  A late penalty by Jean-Marc Doussain sealed the Scots' fate and, unbelievably, put the French in still with a shout to win the tournament in Paris next weekend.

Six Nations Preview - England v Wales

Lies, damned lies and statistics.  If I’m being honest, I’ve never really understood the purpose of that saying – I assume it’s to highlight how statistics rarely tell the whole story – but we’ve had industrial amounts of all 3 crammed down our throats in the build up to this weekend.  And with good reason too – it’s England v Wales.  At some point in the mid-noughties, the clash between St George and St David eclipsed the Calcutta Cup game as being the match-up that everyone looks out for when the Six Nations fixtures are announced.  With a rivalry that has developed to arguably its fiercest in over a century of competition between the two countries, the media has wasted no opportunities in spinning stories of revenge, 1000 year old grudges and just plain old hatred.  All of it exaggerated nonsense; all of it brilliant theatre.

The lie that we’ve been told by the Welsh camp is that Warren Gatland has been “building the players up so that they have the self-belief that they can win at Twickenham”.  He needs to do no such thing.  If this Welsh side – a team that has won on the last 3 occasions they have met England, that has won at Twickenham in 2 of their last 3 Championship visits and one that contains 12 Test Lions in the starting XV alone – does not already believe that they can beat their hosts, then they are suffering from the biggest instance of delusion since Brian Moore walked into a Wales Supporters Club meeting with an autograph pen at the ready.

The damned lie has come from the England camp though, who have insisted that Sunday’s match at Twickenham will not be about revenge for the pasting they suffered in Cardiff last year; that result will merely be a benchmark on how far they have progressed.  This is nonsense, and we all know it.  Revenge is one of the most basic and powerful urges we have, and you can bet your Nana’s pension that Andy Farrell will be working the men in white up into a frenzy prior to kick off, with abundant references to the 30 – 3 drubbing.

And then there’s the statistics.  All very interesting stuff, but absolutely none of it really makes any sense or provides an indication on how the game might go.  Take the table below as an example:

After Rd. 3	England	Wales	Ireland	France	Scotland	Italy
Metres made	1503	868	1117	1293	859	1167
Clean Breaks	23	9	13	24	11	10
Offloads	35	23	14	52	33	31
Defenders Beaten	78	35	58	69	42	40

From that, it would seem that England are the top attacking side in the Six Nations, with Wales the worst – in particular, England have made 70% more metres with the ball in hand and beaten twice as many defenders, making twice as many clean breaks in the process.  This isn’t the boring England everybody loves to poke fun at.  But to put these figures into context, it is rather surprising to read into the numbers surrounding Wales’ win over France at the Millennium Stadium.  In that game the Welsh were dominant, oozing physical threat and dismantling the French pack, forcing Les Bleus to look more clueless than their head coach in a hopelessly inept display.  And yet, the visitors made just under twice as many metres, beat over twice as many defenders and made 6 clean breaks to Wales’ 2.  And yet the consensus is that they were dominated.  You see, what the stats don’t show are the shoulder-busting carries of Jamie Roberts, the quick-handed steals by Sam Warburton and the momentum-sapping chop tackles from Dan Lydiate.

And that’s exactly what England will be dealing with on Sunday.  Fans of the home side may look to the above table as a source of comfort, but the players know that what they are facing can’t be presented in numbers.  Stuart Lancaster has made the right call in keeping his starting line-up together, aside from the enforced change of Ben Morgan coming in for the injured Billy Vunipola.  Luckily, Morgan is a man in a similar mould to the Saracens wrecking ball, and he will be a key weapon of the England pack as they look to take advantage of a superior carrying game.  Whilst Wales rely on their backs to generate thrust over the gainline, England like to attack the fringes with the speed and power of their pack before putting the ball wide.  They must be accurate in their cleanout to keep Sam Warburton and Toby Faletau quiet but if they can succeed here, they can generate space outwide where Jack Nowell and Johnny May, despite not being the biggest, will fancy their chances running forward into open spaces.

Wales, meanwhile, have fielded an incredibly experienced and powerful side, packed with leaders all over the field.  They are exponents of “Warren-ball” – Gatland’s infamous tactic that may be about as subtle as a Jonah Lomu handoff, but is extremely effective.  It is essentially about getting their big carriers – North, Roberts, Davies and Hibbard – all running hard in spaces, meaning they look to go wide early and get their big men into the wider channels.  The problem for defences is that, once you start going backwards, it is almost impossible to reset your defence properly without conceding a penalty or leaving a huge gap to be exploited.  However, the visitors will be aware that they are facing one of the best rush defences in the tournament and so the handling must be slick, and the lines accurate, or they may find themselves caught behind the gainline.

There are a fantastic amount of tactical battles all over the park, and it would be impossible to go through them all without breaking my laptop in excitement.  However, the scrum is sure to come under scrutiny as an area of potential Welsh dominance, as will the lineout, as an area where England can get the upper hand.  The use of substitutes will be interesting too, especially seeing as Lancaster has made what I consider to be a mistake in leaving the returning Manu Tuilagi out – a man who can make a potentially game changing impact and whose simple presence on the bench could lead the Welsh midfield (the returning Davies in particular) to hold back just 5% in anticipation of his introduction.  But above all, I can see this game being settled on line speed.  The battle between the two Lions defensive coaches is worth the admission price alone, and England will be well aware that if they can shut the likes of Roberts down behind the gainline with their ‘swarm’ defence, then Wales will struggle to execute a plan B, as they showed against Ireland.  Get it wrong, and they will find themselves going very backwards, very fast.

But above all this game is about primal passion.  With claims of arrogance flying on both sides of the border, both teams and sets of supporters would love nothing more than to earn bragging rights for the next year.  And with the next time these two meet at Twickenham scheduled to be in the Group Stages of the World Cup 2015, it’s the chance to lay down a real statement.  And it’s all this that makes all the hyperbole before kick-off OK – we love it; the lies, the damned lies and the statistics.

But there’s just one statistic that will really matter come Sunday night.

England Team News

Gloucester's Ben Morgan replaces the injured Billy Vunipola at number eight for England's Six Nations match against Wales at Twickenham on Sunday.  Exeter flanker Tom Johnson, 31, who won his last cap in 2012, is on the bench, where Stuart Lancaster has resisted the urge to bring in either Manu Tuilagi or Marland Yarde for Alex Goode.

Starting Line up:  M Brown (Harlequins); J Nowell (Exeter), L Burrell (Northampton), B Twelvetrees (Gloucester), J May (Gloucester); O Farrell (Saracens), D Care (Harlequins); J Marler (Harlequins), D Hartley (Northampton), D Wilson (Bath), J Launchbury (Wasps), C Lawes (Northampton), T Wood (Northampton), C Robshaw (Harlequins, capt), B Morgan (Gloucester).

Subs: T Youngs (Leicester), M Vunipola (Saracens), H Thomas (Sale), D Attwood (Bath), T Johnson (Exeter), L Dickson (Northampton), G Ford (Bath), A Goode (Saracens).

Key Player

Ben Morgan.  The big Gloucester number 8 seems to reserve his best form for England, and fans will be hoping that this is the case on Sunday.  Off the bench, Morgan has been incredibly destructive, making big carries and always looking to offload – not dissimilar to the man he replaces, Billy Vunipola – but his work with the ball in hand and ability to break tackles is never in question.  His workrate, however, is.  Vunipola was England's top carrier, and he went flat out for 60-odd minutes in the knowledge that he would be replaced by the Gloucester man with a quarter of the game still to play.  With no recognised explosive ball-carrier on the bench, Morgan will have to get through the same amount of work as Vunipola but push himself through the full 80 minutes – a real test of his fitness and conditioning.  England have a faster, stronger ball-carrying pack that will target the fringes and Rhys Priestland's channel, and Morgan must be at the heart of this effort all game.

Wales Team News

Jonathan Davies is back in the Wales side for the first time since November to face England in the Six Nations at Twickenham on Sunday.  The Scarlets centre has played only two halves of rugby since suffering a chest injury against South Africa.  Davies, 25, is one of two changes from the side which beat France 27-6, with lock Alun Wyn Jones, 28, back after recovering from a foot infection.  Rhys Webb remains at scrum-half ahead of Mike Phillips, who is on the bench.   There is one positional change in the backline. With Davies returning to partner Jamie Roberts at centre, George North reverts to the wing with versatile Scarlet Liam Williams back on the bench.

 

Starting Line up: Leigh Halfpenny (Blues); Alex Cuthbert (Blues), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Jamie Roberts (Racing Metro), George North (Northampton); Rhys Priestland (Scarlets), Rhys Webb (Ospreys); Gethin Jenkins (Blues), Richard Hibbard (Ospreys), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Luke Charteris (Perpignan), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Dan Lydiate (Racing Metro), Sam Warburton (Blues, capt), Taulupe Faletau (Dragons).

Subs: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Paul James (Bath Rugby), Rhodri Jones (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Mike Phillips (Racing Metro), Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Liam Williams (Scarlets).

Key Player

 

Jonathan Davies.  Coming back after 3 months out injured is never easy, let alone coming straight back into one of the most intense Test match environments around.  Davies has shown no ill-effects of his pectoral injury in either his run out for the Scarlets or indeed in training this week, and he will be relishing the chance to re-unite himself with Jamie 'Desperate Dan' Roberts.  His power and surprising speed and footwork are his chief weapons, but it was his awareness in the midfield that really set him apart over the summer and in the early autumn; and that's the part that may take a while to sharpen up.  Expect England to briefly test out his shoulder with the hard running Luther Burrell, but also expect them to try and exploit any rustiness with decoys, dragging Davies in and putting Brown or the blindside winger on his outside.  If he gets his match sharpness back quickly, England will find their ability to find space out wide very limited.

 

 

Key Battle

I'm going to cheat, like any good flanker, and pick my top 3 because, to be honest, picking just 1 would do the game a disservice.

 

Joe Marler v Adam Jones:  The Lions Test veteran had Marler on toast last year, but the Quins man has improved his scrummaging substantially this year, whilst Jones' powers have reportedly been on the wane.  It should be an even contest this time around that both men will fancy their chances in, but whoever gets the upper hand in the scrum will set a crucial platform for their side.

 

Joe Launchbury v Alun Wyn Jones:  Launchbury was bullied by Jones and the gang last year, but now the Wasps lock looks like the real deal.  His workrate against Ireland and physicality in the loose were phenomenal, whilst the returning Jones provides muscular leadership in the tight exchanges.  The crucial lineout battle aside, these two are set for one hell of a contest in the murky world of the breakdown.

 

Billy Twelvetrees v Jamie Roberts:  Part of me hates Jamie Roberts.  He's a world-class international rugby player, a qualified doctor, good-looking and, by all accounts, a top bloke.  I can only assume he has a microscopic penis to even things out.  But Billy Twelvetrees' immediate concern (hopefully) is how to stop Roberts before he breaks the gainline – he will need to show lightning line speed and chop him down quickly before the Welsh can build any momentum.  I think it's not stretching it too far to say that whoever wins this individual battle, could effectively win their side the match.

 

 

Prediction

 

With the scores tied at 56-all in the winners of matches between these two countries, you get some indication of how tight this one is.  Wales might not be at their sharpest but the experience they have in their side is on another level to England – plus they have the advantage of being able to select from an almost injury-free squad.  The same can't be said for the hosts, who are still missing 5 Test Lions through injury, lack of fitness, and there seems to be a growing nervousness amongst England fans that their side won't have the experience to deal with the physical Welsh onslaught.  I disagree, however.  If England get their linespeed right, they can shut down the Welsh game-plan before it gets going, and I suspect Andy Farrell will have drilled that into them all week.  I'm expecting a close game, but I'm leaning towards home advantage and a thirst for revenge giving a fired up England a win at Twickenham on Sunday.  England by 6.

 

Let's see what's happening elsewhere in the Six Nations this weekend:

Scotland v France:  80 minutes makes a lot of difference.  2 weeks ago, you wouldn't have given Scotland a fart in the wind's chance of beating the French, but after the last round's fixtures they must surely fancy their chances.  And without Picamoles and Fofana, I suspect the French may struggle…but still sneak a win.  France by 2.

Ireland v Italy:  Despite the defeat to England, Ireland are really in the driving seat now for this year's title.  They should be confident in facing up to an Italian side that hasn't won away in the Championship for an incredible 17 matches, and are without their talismanic number 8, Sergio Parisse.  I predict a comfortable win for the men in green.  Ireland by 13.