Heineken Cup Preview - Clermont Auvergne v Leicester Tigers

 

Impossible is nothing.  I’ve never been a big fan of that Adidas tagline, although I am a fan of their rugby boots because they are one of the few manufacturers to do a wide fit for my square feet, although it is increasingly difficult to find a set that aren’t predominantly purple or shocking pink these days.  Anyway, I digress.  That tagline – impossible is nothing – is rather misleading.  Impossible is rarely an accurate description of a scenario – rather, it is used to summarise a very difficult challenge – but, either way, you’re going to need much more than just a decent set of boots to overcome whatever ‘impossible’ gauntlet has been thrown down in front of you.  Impossible is dedication, planning, back-breakingly hard work and, more often than not, a decent slice of luck.  It’s not ‘nothing’.

But impossible is  a term that has been thrown around by the media in the build up to Leicester’s trip to face Clermont Auvergne and the Stade Marcel Michelin, a cold, unforgiving fortress that has not been breached in 5 years – or 74 games.  Home fans are used to seeing an average victory margin of 21 points, which is part of the reason why they’re sitting comfortably in 2^nd place.  When you look through their side you see a team packed with the best French talent – in the shape of Thomas Domingo, Damien Chouly, Morgan Parra and Wesley Fofana – interspersed with some foreign international class in the forms of Nathan Hines and Napolini Nalaga...and that’s with Lee Byrne and Sitiveni Sivivatu missing.  Their game is based on speed – hard, fast carries and quick ball retention – until the opposition defence is in full retreat.  Then they strike out wide.  At home, it’s an irresistible formula.

And that’s why the Tigers travel to France with the highly unusual tag of potential “giant-killers”, when it is usually the Premiership Champions uttering “Fee-fi-fo-fum”.  They travel in hope, rather than expectation, despite the fact that their recent upturn in form (and the return of star players) has culminating in them ruining one perfect domestic home record already this season by defeating Northampton at Franklins Gardens.  But Leicester do have previous for breaching the unbreachable – think back to 2006, when Lewis Moody, Geordan Murphy and Ollie Smith inspired a win at Thommond Park, where Munster had been previously unbeaten in Europe.  They know they can do it, and if their big runners – Mulipola, Tuilagi and Goneva – get them on the front foot regularly, they will believe that they can. 

This Clermont side is not without it's weaknesses - their pack, for example, is not young, with 35 year old Jamie Cudmore and 37 year old Nathan Hines forming the engine room, and Leicester will feel that could be an area to be exploited if they can move the forwards across the pitch and try to isolate one of the big men in the midfield.  Throw in the fact that Clermont have lost their last 4 away games to Brive, Bordeaux, Grenoble and Bayonne, and you realise that they are not invincible.  The Tigers will know this.  But, like all French teams, Clermont are a different animal at home, where they have created a cauldron of pressure; an aura of invincibility.  An impossible task.  In this case, for the Tigers, impossible sure would be something.

Clermont Auvergne Team News

Clermont, unbeaten in 74 home matches, are without injured wing Sitiveni Sivivatu and full-back Lee Byrne.  Hooker Benjamin Kayser, flanker Julien Bonnaire and lock Jamie Cudmore return.  All Black Sivivatu, who scored 29 tries in 45 Tests, will be replaced by Noa Nakaitaci, while Jean-Marcellin Buttin starts in place of 2009 British and Irish Lion Byrne, who announced in January he will return to Wales with join Newport Gwent Dragons in the summer.

Starting Line up:  J-M Buttin; N Nakaitaci, A Rougerie (c), W Fofana, N Nalaga; B James, M Parra; T Domingo, B Kayser, D Zirakashvili, J Cudmore, N Hines, J Bonnaire, D Chouly, F Lee

Subs: T Paulo, V Debaty, C Ric, J Pierre, A Lapandry, T Lacrampe, M Delany, B Stanley

Key Player

Thomas Domingo.  Leicester’s Dan Cole – a man who Domingo seems to have figured out in the scrum stakes – is still out injured and so the squat Frenchman will be faced with the rather sizeable task of nullifying the raw power of Logovi’i Mulipola.  Domingo, though, has never been daunted by the prospect of taking on bigger men in the scrum and his short stature and superior technique has meant that he has regularly gotten the better of them in the past, but this season he hasn’t quite hit his heights of previous years.  He’ll need to be on his game though if he wants to take away the platform of Leicester’s game – and any faint hopes the visitors may have had will disappear along with it.

 

Leicester Tigers Team News

Leicester bring in full-back Mathew Tait and American wing Blaine Scully as they attempt to end Clermont's long unbeaten home record in Saturday's Heineken Cup quarter-final.  Tait takes over from Scott Hamilton, who drops to the bench, while Scully starts in place of Adam Thompstone.  As expected, Welshman Owen Williams continues at fly-half for Leicester, ensuring club captain Toby Flood remains on the bench.

Starting Line up: M Tait; B Scully, M Tuilagi, A Allen, V Goneva; O Williams, B Youngs; M Ayerza, T Youngs, L Mulipola, L Deacon, E Slater (c), J Gibson, J Salvi, J Crane

Subs: R Hawkins, B Stankovich, F Balmain, G Kitchener, T Waldrom, D Mele, T Flood, S Hamilton

Key Player

Julian Salvi. The Tigers man wins few big accolades from the TV pundits, but those who play alongside him know his value to the team.  An out and out poacher, he leads the Premiership turnover charts by a country mile and it is his ability over the ball that, you can bet, Vern Cotter will be most concerned with.  If Salvi gets an eye in at the Clermont breakdown, then the hosts structure and fluency can disintegrate – expect Damien Chouly and, of course, Nathan Hines and Jamie Cudmore to pay him a little extra attention in the dark areas of the game in an attempt to ‘discourage’ him for getting too close to the ball...

 

Key Battle

Wesley Fofana v Manu Tuilagi.  They may not be lining up directly opposite each other, but these two will certainly be meeting plenty of times in the midfield, where they stand out as being both sides’ chief attacking weapons.  Both are world class centres and game-breakers on their day – Fofana is all dancing, deception and guile, whilst Tuilagi is effectively a cannon ball on legs with an underrated offload game.  Both can be devastatingly effective though, and it really does come down to who can get their hands on the ball the most and who is on their game by that extra 5%.  Despite both midfields being pretty secure on the back foot, there is enough raw talent in the shoes of both these men to break open the stingiest of defences.  This match up makes the game worth watching by itself.

Prediction

The signs all point to one clear winner, and that is – unsurprisingly – the team with the 74 game unbeaten home record.  But what makes this fixture so intriguing is that we don’t know how good this Leicester side can be – they have been so poor or average until the last 3 weeks or so that we don’t know what the limit of their ability really is, and I think that – as Cockerill himself suggested – if everyone plays to their potential and Clermont are a little bit off their game, the Tigers will have a sniff.  But the problem is Clermont are never off their game at home, or should we say fortress.  If Clermont don’t go behind early, I can see the relentless physicality and speed breaking down the Leicester defence in a pressure-cooker environment.  There is definite potential for a fairy tale in this one, but it’s likely that will end being make-believe.  Clermont by 8.

Let’s take a look at the other quarter finals taking place this weekend:

Munster v Toulouse:  Arguably the toughest to call on paper, the French sides don’t usually travel well but Toulouse have won at Wembley this year and their pedigree in the Heineken Cup will serve them well.  That said, the Thommond Park factor will be crucial for Munster and I can see the hosts claiming a hard-fought win.  Munster by 4.

Ulster v Saracens:  There is certainly a lot of optimism amongst Saracens fans that they might achieve something special, but Ravenhill on a Saturday night will be unlike any atmosphere most of those players have experienced.  Sarries will push them close, but that home hostility should see the Irish side over the line.  Ulster by 5.

Toulon v Leinster.  You can read by detailed preview of this on the Rugby Blog but, in a nutshell, I think home advantage will be key once again in a battle between two of the ‘dream teams’ of European rugby.  It will be tight, but Jonny Wilkinson’s side should pick up the win.  Toulon by 7.