Premiership Preview - Saracens v Northampton Saints

 

This stage of the season gets a lot of positive press.  The "business-end", coaches and fans alike call it.  The bit where all the silverware is dusted off and polished in readiness for the clamouring of grubby Captains' mitts that takes place around May every year.  And it doesn't get any less enthralling.  But, as a rugby writer (part-time, of course), I find that it gets more and more tricky.  Every fixture seems to become crucial – for a home semi-final, for a playoff spot, for survival, or even just for plain old bragging rights.  Picking just one fixture to write about becomes a real headache.  First-world problems I know.

This week I had the West-Country derby, a crunch encounter between play-off chasers and two games that will be pivotal to the survival for the Premiership's two bottom clubs.  But in the end I took the safe option – 1st v 2nd.  You can never go too far wrong with that.

And not going too far wrong is precisely what will be at the back of every Northampton Saints fans' mind.  Last season, they made a big stride and a statement, making the final and moving out of the "also-ran" category.  And this season they carried on, looking unplayable at times with a combination of pace and power that was not only easy on the eye but a nightmare to defend against.  George North remains a freak of nature, George Pisi a box of tricks, and Samu Manoa and Courtney Lawes are still bottom of every fly-half's Christmas card list. But the wheels have certainly loosened on the Saints' steam train – even if they haven't completely come off yet.  Defeats to Sale and Leicester have seen the Tigers bare down on their home semi-final spot – this Sunday's game is critical to keeping that challenge at bay.  Saints need to play fast and run hard in the wider channels, as they did when they overturned Sarries on their own patch in the semis last year.  If the "wolf-pack" Saracens defence is forced outside of its comfort zone, then that black wall can be breached.

And of course last year's defeat will still be stinging many of the hosts on Sunday.  So confident were Sarries last year before they played the hapless Northampton that there was a parade of the players' families before the game.  Don't expect any such shenanigan  this time round.  The Londoners are without silverware in 2 seasons and they are hungry to make their mark as the dominant force in England once again.  Their kicking game is well documented but this year they have impressed with their attacking continuity too – big ball carriers making big yards around the fringes, drawing in defences and getting them backpeddling before finally unleashing their lethal finishers in the shape of Dave Strettle and Chris Ashton.  Simple, yes, but also exceptionally painful to defend against.  It's a ferociously physical tactic that they will be desperate to unleash in retribution for the disappointment of last season.

On second thoughts, the fact that this is 1st v 2nd doesn't make this the biggest game of the weekend.  The fact that 2 of the most physical teams in the league are going head to head does.  Never before has the term 'crunch encounter' felt more appropriate.

Saracens Team News

Saracens make five changes from the side that beat Ulster in the Heineken Cup last week, with Kelly Brown and Mako Vunipola coming into the back row.  Chris Wyles starts at full-back, while Marcelo Bosch and Neil de Kock are at centre and scrum-half respectively.

Starting Line up:  Wyles; Ashton, Bosch, Barritt, Strettle; Farrell, De Kock; M Vunipola, Brits, Johnston; Borthwick (capt), Botha; Wray, Brown, B Vunipola.

Subs: George, Barrington, Stevens, Sheriff, Burger, Wigglesworth, Hodgson, Streather.

Key Player

Billy Vunipola.  When Sarries think back to the day when Saints pooped their party in the playoffs last season, they will note how every Northampton player broke the gainline with carries and how ever Saracens player was stopped dead in their tracks.  They were bullied.  Well, try bullying Billy.  The baby of the Vunipola brothers is so huge that he has his own orbit and carries the power of approximately 10 combined rhinoceros.  His job will be to ensure that the hosts don't lose the physicality battle again, getting the men in black on the front foot through big carries up the middle or round the fringes.  Everything good that Sarries do comes from go-forward ball – it's big game for the young number 8.

 

Northampton Saints Team News

There are wholesale changes to the Northampton Saints side that won the Amlin Challenge Cup tie against Sale last week, with 12 faces coming in.  Captain Dylan Hartley (shoulder) is out, but Stephen Myler is back at 10.  England internationals Ben Foden, Luther Burrell, Lee Dickson, Courtney Lawes and Tom Wood all start along with Wales wing George North.  

Starting Line up:  Foden; Elliott, Pisi, Burrell, North; Myler, Dickson; A Waller, McMillan, Ma'afu; Lawes, Day; Clarke, Wood, Manoa.

Subs: Haywood, E Waller, Denman, Dickinson, Dowson, Fotuali'i, Hooley, Wilson.

Key Player

Samu Manoa.  Yes, Billy's opposite number happens to be arguably the only man in English rugby whose tackling technique is utilised by building demolition companies.  His selection at 8 rather than second row is telling because it shows that the visitors are going for raw power than mobility in the back row, and there Manoa will be given a free role and the task of effectively man-marking Vunipola.  The brief is simple – stop Sarries' biggest runner, and you can stop them from getting going.  What happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object?  I think we're about to find out…

 

Key Battle

Owen Farrell v Stephen Myler.  It may seem rather less obvious – and certainly less explosive – than the Vunipola v Manoa clash, but the battle between the fly halves is arguably going to have the greater tactical significance.  Both sides rely on getting into the right areas of the pitch and Farrell will need to make sure he picks up this area of his game from last week against Ulster and get back to Six Nations standards – he doesn't want to be giving George North and Ben Foden the ball in space.  Likewise, Saints will be looking to Myler to pull the strings and get them playing smart rugby – they've looked a little lost at times with young Will Hooley at fly half, who is still learning his trade, and so Myler is absolutely vital to Northampton's cause if they are to get some momentum back into their campaign.  Whoever wins the kicking duel out of these two will most likely set the platform for victory.

 

Prediction

That play-off semi-final last year blew all of us away because nobody saw it coming – Saints were hungrier, angrier and tougher in every facet of the game.  They are unfortunately missing one of the hungriest, angriest, and toughest men in the game though in the shape of their captain, Dylan Hartley, and that won't help their cause – but I don't think that is the reason they won't win on Sunday.  Sarries have seen what this Northampton side can do first hand and they will be in no mood at all to let it happen again – I expect a far more physical game from them than last year, matched with the ruthless pragmatism that has been so prevalent this season around.  Saints will fight hard – but just come up short.  Saracens by 7.

 

What else is happening in the Aviva Premiership this week?

Sale Sharks v Harlequins:  This match is crucial to both sides' playoff ambitions, and Quins will be relieved that the north-west is a bit more palatable at this time of year. But I still don't think they have the steel that they had a couple of seasons ago and I can see Steve Diamond's men picking up a critical win this time round.  Sale by 4.

Leicester Tigers v London Wasps:  The Tigers will be hurting after their narrow loss to French giants, Clermont, and will be keen to make a statement when Wasps come to town.  But Wasps will have no fear after a much improved display against Gloucester in the Amlin Cup, although I still think their squad depth prevents them from being seriously competitive.  Tigers by 11.

Worcester Warriors v Exeter Chiefs:  Another absolutely critical game that the Warriors simply have to win if they want to stay up.  The Chiefs have nothing to play for after a middling season by their standards, whilst the Warriors will hold some confidence after picking up their first win of the season in the last round – and I think they just might kick on.  Warriors by 2.

Gloucester v Bath:  It's another big West Country derby, but it's Bath's to lose.  Gloucester, as ever, have looked talented and free-running in brief moments but they lack the grunt up front to really compete against any of the sides in the top 4.  Bath may be away from home, but they'll expect to win this one.  Bath by 6.

London Irish v Newcastle Falcons:  Another do-or-die fixture – this time for the Falcons.  If they win, they keep their fate in their own hands.  Lose, and they have to nervously watch elsewhere.  They will know the Warriors' result before they start which I can't see being helpful either way, and Irish have surprised many – including myself – with the quality of some of their play this season.  Irish by 5.