Premiership Preview - Leicester Tigers v Bath

When I think of the word humiliation, several memories automatically spring to mind – more than I would like, to be frank.  One of them involved my mother shouting “Michael, darling, do you want a fromage frais?” at a village barbeque when I was 13 and desperately trying to chat up my attractive neighbour but, thanks to the aforementioned, ended up playing football with her grossly overweight sister.  Painful times.  Ask any Leicester player, or fan, what springs to mind when they hear ‘humiliation’, and the most recent – and most horrific – memory that presents itself is the 45 – 0 drubbing at the Rec earlier on in the season.  A game where Leicester were, to be honest, lucky to get 0.

Of course, there are several reasons why such an emphatic scoreline is unlikely this time around.  For starters, the Welford Road factor tends to level out the playing field a bit and, also, several key players who were missing on that day – in the shape of Anthony Allen and Marcos Ayerza – are returning, and they are two crucial players for the hosts.  Yet they are still missing Manu Tuilagi (what a shame we will not see that potentially face-shattering confrontation with Burgess), Tom Croft and, worryingly, Dan Cole, with no news on why he is absent.  Leicester and England fans can only hope it is a mild case of the flu or over-indulgence at New Year.  It may seem odd to hand the label of ‘star man’ to somebody who looks like the love child of Desperate Dan and Victor Meldrew, but Cole has been on fire since returning from injury – dominating scrums against highly respected opponents, pilfering at the breakdown and looking strong on the carry, a previous weakness in his game.  Last time against Bath, the East Midlanders were marched all over the field – Ayerza’s return does lessen the likelihood of that happening again, but Cole’s absence severely diminishes the chance of a table-turning.

For the men in blue, black and white, confidence is not exactly in short supply.  They have a side which is beautifully balanced with power and speed, graft and guile, solidarity and invention all in near-perfect harmony.  The bottom line is that if both sides play as they have been so far this season, Bath will win.  But the Tigers’ defence will be very, very aggressive – and there is still a question mark (an increasingly small one, to be fair) over George Ford’s ability to perform under intense pressure.  There is also the issue of whether or not the introduction of Sam Burgess, at the expense of Jonathan Joseph, will upset the harmony within the side.  Looking past his inexperience and potential naivity in terms of tackle technique and positional play, Burgess is just a very different player to Joseph, powerful and direct as opposed to fleet-footed with a lethal outside break.  Bath’s gameplan will have to be adjusted slightly to accommodate that change in talents, and it will be interesting to see how they deal with that.

What the Welford Road faithful will not deal with is a repeat of what is known in some quarters as ‘Rec-gate’ and the subsequent humiliation.  Tigers v Bath has plenty of history, and the East Midlanders are keen to correct the record books.

Leicester Team News

Leicester Tigers have Graham Kitchener, Anthony Allen and Blaine Scully back in the side after missing the bonus-point win over Sale Sharks because of injury.  Marcos Ayerza and Tom Youngs also return to the team, while Julian Salvi makes his 100th Tigers appearance.

Starting Line up:  Tait; Scully, Goneva, Allen, Benjamin; Williams, B. Youngs (c); Ayerza, T Youngs, Balmain; Kitchener, Parling; Gibson, Salvi, Crane.

Subs: Ghiraldini, Rizzo, Pasquali, De Chaves, Barbieri, Harrison, Burns, Bai.

Key Player

Fraser Balmain.  With Dan Cole mysteriously again nowhere to be seen, Balmain has a massive role to play against a very powerful Bath pack.  At the Rec, young Fraser was one third of a front row that was unceremoniously treated as a doormat by their counterparts – this time, they are reinforced by one of the world’s best looseheads, Marcos Ayerza, and the strong scrummaging Tom Youngs, but all the pressure will be coming through on the Leicester tighthead’s side.  If he can hold is own, I would expect Ayerza to eventually get the upper hand in the set piece as he always does – if he is bullied as he was last time out against the men from the West Country, it could be another longer afternoon.

Bath Team News

Bath have named former rugby league internationals Sam Burgess and Kyle Eastmond as their centre partnership, with Burgess taking the 13 shirt in his maiden 1^st XV start for Bath.  Dave Attwood returns to partner captain Stuart Hooper in the second row.

Starting Line up:  Watson; Agulla, Burgess, Eastmond, Banahan; Ford, Cook; James, Webber, Wilson; Hooper (c), Attwood; Garvey, Louw, Fearns

Subs: Batty, Auterac, Thomas, Day, Houston, Young, Devoto, Joseph

Key Player

Kyle Eastmond.  Now we all know who the real key player is, but I’m going to talk about him below and, besides, Eastmond arguably has a more critical role to play.  What’s struck me about the Leicester defence of late is how often – and how easily – they can get outflanked by attacking sides.  There is obviously something not working in the system – either players are not moving up aggressively enough in the middle or are simply not working hard enough to get around the breakdown – but this is something for the second distributor, Eastmond, to exploit.  If he sits deep off Ford, behind dummy runners, he will give himself time to pick out the pass to get around the Tigers’ defence, but is he also a naturally attacking player – so if he gets too shallow, as his instinct might instruct him, he could get put under all sorts of pressure.

Key Battle

Niki Goneva v Sam Burgess.  All eyes will be on that 13 channel, and it will be interesting to see if Burgess defends in the 13 channel or the 12 (as Tuilagi did when he first came on the scene for England) to keep him ‘on a leash’.  Either way, it will be fascinating to see how he runs in the Bath attack – if he gets his timing right, he can make some serious metres against the much smaller Allen and the occasionally flappy Goneva, and once this Bath attack gets you going backwards, they are very hard to stop.  But, if Mike Ford’s predictions are right, he is still essentially a blindside flanker – who is still learning his trade – in the midfield, and if there is one person who can exploit that, it’s the fleet-footed Goneva.  The Fijian international is electric and if Burgess gets caught narrow, Goneva will be gone.  It’s a fascinating match up that’s filled with jaw-dropping talents and glaring weaknesses – just what the game needs.

Prediction

I’ve been going over and over this match up in my head and, before Cole’s absence was announced (or rather, his presence was not announced), I was leaning towards a home win, with set piece solidarity and the Welford Road factor swaying proceedings.  But, as it stands, I struggle to see where Leicester can really get an upper hand in this game – their scrum may come under pressure, they lack real grunt in the pack without Slater and/or Thorne and their backs still don’t seem to be clicking.  That said, they are mentally still strong enough to force a result through sheer determination and will to win, but this Bath side are comfortably – with Saints – the best side in the Premiership at the moment, and you don’t get to that stage without having similar mental fortitude.  Bath by 6.