I
suppose most people may have guessed, despite my attempts to be impartial, that
I am a Leicester fan. Having been born a
stones-throw away from Welford Road, I’ve been fortunate enough to watch some
great moments, see some unbelievable players and witness far more than my fair
share of trophy-liftings...but there is the odd bad day as well. And then there was that day at the Rec in
September.
I
attended the match with a rather chirpy work-colleague, himself a Bath fan, and
he had a great day out, giggling like a school-girl for the full 80 minutes
whilst I was forced to find solace in the (admittedly very well thought-out)
double pint glasses of Bath Ales Gem. On
that day, I saw a Leicester side as resilient as a soaking wet strip of toilet
paper, as the hosts mercilessly put them to the sword, with the axis of Ford,
Eastmond and Joseph causing carnage throughout the 45 – 0 walloping that was
admitted to the giants of the English game.
It set the tone for the season in many ways – Bath sparkling, strutting
their way to wins, with the Tigers disjointed and low on ideas. And yet, here we are. Just one place separated the two at the end
of the regular season, and anything can happen in a semi-final.
Bath,
of course, are favourites. And
deservedly so. The question they have to
answer now is whether or not they can play like champions when the pressure is
on, against the top sides when the intensity and physicality go up. If Bath play at pace and win the forward
battle up-front, they will win and win well – but a few times this season we
have seen the Bath side crumble against more powerful opponents, like Saracens
or even Leicester in the return fixture.
This game will be brutal, and the key men for Bath are not the
headline-winners in that superb backline, but the grizzled warriors in the pack
– Attwood, Louw and Burgess. They need
to be aware of what will be thrown at them and ready to meet it head on.
Because
a Leicester side is always at its most dangerous when the backs are against the
wall and, for most of this season, they will have felt like they have been
cornered. By critics, by fans, by
injuries – you name it, the Tigers have been written off. But they just keep winning games – and this
is the situation they love. Make no
mistake, they are underdogs, but they will be well aware that they can win this
if they hammer home their advantage in several areas – the scrum, the lineout
and the breakdown. At Welford Road the
hosts out-muscled the west-country outfit, they took away their platform and
strangled the life out of the game – they will want to do the same today.
Even I
won’t mind admitting that today, every neutral will (or should be) wanting a
Bath-win. A Leicester win would be
argued by many to be anti-rugby, but I would call it clinical. I would call it ruthless. And that’s what wins you semi-finals.
Bath Team News
England
centre Jonathan Joseph returns for Bath, who are aiming to win their first
Premiership title since 1996. Head coach
Mike Ford has also recalled skipper Stuart Hooper, while Ross Batty comes back
in at hooker, marking a fall from grace for Rob Webber – who started the season
as first-choice and a real option for England.
Sam Burgess continues his education at blindside flanker.
Starting line-up: Watson; Rokoduguni, Joseph, Eastmond, Banahan;
Ford, Stringer; James, Batty, Wilson, Hooper (capt), Attwood, Burgess, Louw,
Houston.
Subs: Webber, Auterac, Thomas, Day, Garvey, Fearns,
Cook, Devoto.
Key Player
Sam
Burgess. Of course, all eyes are on
Burgess to see if he can conjure up the kind of form which saw him emerge as
the hero of English rugby league – but now he’s found his true position at 6,
he has a job to do. If Leicester are to
win it will be by physically bullying the Bath pack, slowing down the hosts’
ball whilst securing a good platform for Ben Youngs, and by dominating the
collisions. It won’t be glamorous, but
Burgess knows that he has to be a key weapon in countering that – clearing rucks
out accurately and aggressively, carrying as much as possible and stopping the
Leicester runners behind the gainline. His
learning curve has been slow and steady – but now is his chance to mark his
true arrival into the game.
Leicester Team News
Leicester
make just one change from the side that earned an 11th successive appearance in
the Premiership semi-finals by beating Northampton Saints. Marcos Ayerza returns to the starting line-up
at loose-head prop in place of the injured Logovi'i Mulipola, with Michele
Rizzo coming onto the bench. The loss of
Mulipola’s impact from the bench is a huge loss for the visitors.
Starting line-up: Morris; Thompstone, Tait, Loamanu,
Goneva; Burns, Ben Youngs (capt); Ayerza, Tom Youngs, Cole, Thorn, Kitchener,
Slater, Salvi, Crane.
Subs: Briggs, Rizzo, Balmain, De Chaves, Gibson,
Harrison, Bell, Catchpole.
Key Player
Graham
Kitchener. He won’t have earned the
headlines, but there are many people who would probably regard Graham Kitchener
as one of the unluckiest players in the country after Stuart Lancaster’s squad
announcement. The big lock has been
superb all season, carrying well and ruling the roost in the line-out, resulting
in a call-up to the Six Nations squad, only to see the return of Joe Launchbury
and team-mate Ed Slater knock him out of the reckoning. But today he can be the most influential
player on the park – the Tigers will know that they can get on top in the
set-piece and, if Kitchener can ensure that Bath’s lineout becomes a lottery,
then the Tigers’ will fancy their chances.
Key Battle
George
Ford v Freddie Burns. You have to feel
for Freddie Burns – the man is a mercurial talent and you would have thought
that going to a club with a usually dominant pack and a talented backline would
have been the perfect stage to showcase his skills...but it just hasn’t
happened, as Leicester’s lethargic forward play and injury crisis out wide has
meant that the hosts have had to resort to an under-9 style
pass-it-to-the-big-kid gameplan. But it
has, in many ways, forced Burns to develop more than he would have done
otherwise – his previous weaknesses of goal-kicking and game management have
improved beyond recognition this year.
And it’s the same for Ford, who has seen himself rise to England 10
shirt – both men are pure talents with vision and an arsenal of tricks at their
disposal, but for much of the game, when the pressure is on, today will be
about control.
Prediction
They
say lightning doesn’t strike twice and I’m going to go out of my way early
doors and say that we won’t have another 45 – 0 thrashing on our hands. Leicester were bullied and outfought that
day, but their displays in the return fixture and, more recently, against
Wasps, leads me to think that they will not let that happen again. The opening 20 minutes will be brutal and
critical – if Bath get ahead, I think they will win comfortably as Leicester
don’t look like they have the ability to chase a game. But if it’s tight, it will go right down to
the wire. Bath, though, have enough
firepower and spark to defeat the visitors and I expect them to show that they’ve
got the backbone now to take that elusive next step to English rugby’s biggest
stage. Bath by 7.
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