Premiership Preview - Gloucester v Leicester Tigers

I must start with a sincere apology and an admission of a minor cock-up.  After promising a review of the Exeter v Saracens game last week, following my weekend excursion to road, I have failed to deliver after discovering that the game wasn't televised.   And with my home computer running at snail's pace, I was unable to watch the full game replay online and my attempts to do so in my open plan office led to frowns and the commencement of disciplinary action.  But life, and Premiership Rugby, goes on.

Actually, the prediction is that it will go off at Kingsholm tonight (see what I did there) as the Leicester Tigers rumble into town to take on Gloucester in a game that never fails to produce sparks, passion and drama.  The fact that these two sides aren't currently sitting in positions they'd hope to be in only lends to the sense of importance leading into this fixture – Gloucester are currently languishing in 10th spot when they should have had realistic hopes of a playoff spot, whilst Leicester – not helped by their worst injury-crisis in years and international call-ups – find themselves, unusually, drifting in mid-table obscurity.

It is worth pointing out that the Cherry and Whites have had their fair share of crocked key players too.  If you look at the pack – which has failed to perform this season – the absence of real rumblers such as Ben Morgan, Sione Kalamafoni and the wonderfully talented Akapusi Qera has shorn them of a dominant presence on the carry and in the tackle-area, although Matt Kvesic remains an intelligent operator and one to watch.  The set-piece, too, has been a major downfall for Nigel Davies' side, with the scrum proving to be as solid as a damp piece of paper.  Even the return of experienced prop, Nick Wood, has done little to stem the tidal wave of penalties that is conceded by the West Country outfit in this area.

But the backs, as has so often been the case for Gloucester sides over the last 5 years, are a different prospect entirely.  How a side can lose the likes of Charlie Sharples and James Simpson-Daniel and still field a backline capable of bamboozling even the most organised of defences is a testament to the quality that they have in their ranks.  Freddie Burns and Billy Twelvetrees are both developing into game-managers with strong kicking games, to complement their natural ability, whilst Henry Trinder and Jonny May are wonderfully balanced and supremely quick wingers who must be licking their lips at the thought of attacking a backline that, outside of the fly-half spot, is a cross between Leicester's 2nd and 3rd choice side.  With Adam Thompstone, in particular, looking vulnerable as a winger playing in an unfamiliar role, this is an area the home side have to exploit if they are to pick up a potentially season-changing win.  This doesn't mean run the ball from everywhere – but it does mean that high kicks and smart chases will be the best way to gain territory and regain possession with a backpeddling defence.  Leicester won't be easy to break at the set piece.

In a classic game of opposites, as mentioned above, the Tigers' backline is in complete disarray.  With certain starters Anthony Allen, Manu Tuilagi, Niall Morris, Niki Goneva and Matt Tait all out, as well as back-up outside centres Matt Smith, and Terence Hepetema, the reigning champions are having to push players into new positions to get a side out.  To be honest, I'm half tempted to bring my boots with me tonight, despite my crocked knee – apparently having only one working leg is par for the course for Tigers' backs these days.  But the net result of all these injuries and the enforced chopping and changing is that the Tigers' backs couldn't finish a roast dinner at the moment.  I can understand a slight bit of rustiness as new combinations are worked through, but the complete absence of understanding and fluency out wide is alarming for the visitors.

But, in true Leicester fashion, the pack can still win them a game.  With arguably the best scrum in the league, Tigers' top try scorer this season has been 'penalty'.  And with that scrum, they can still hope to win this game, by denying the Cherry and Whites any platform at all and physically dominating them with their bigger pack, which has proven to be the Achilles heel of this Gloucester side all season.   Unfortunately for the hosts, their best scrummager, Nick Wood, has never fared well against Dan Cole and it is with some confidence that I predict at least one yellow card for the hosts in the scrum tonight – they've struggled that much.

It all builds nicely to a game that looks to have everything – two of England's biggest and proudest clubs, both desperate for a win, both riddled with injuries and both with completely different tactics for winning this game.  Gloucester will be the crowd-pleasers, and the risk takers, but Leicester will be the pragmatic, the dogged, the bullies.  Flair vs ferocity.  Expect fireworks.

 

Gloucester Team News

Gloucester make five changes to the side beaten by Harlequins last weekend as they look to end a run of four successive Premiership defeats.   Winger Shane Monahan comes in for his first start of the season, replacing the injured Charlie Sharples.

Starting Line up:  Cook; Monahan, Trinder, Twelvetrees, May; Burns, Robson; Wood, Dawidiuk, Knight; Lokotui, Hudson; Savage (capt), Kvesic, Mordan.

Subs: Edmonds, Y. Thomas, Harden, Stooke, Cox, Cowan, Tindall, M. Thomas.

Key Player

Nick Wood.  Gloucester's experienced and most effective set-piece operator has long been lauded by the Kingsholm faithful as an unsung hero and somebody wrongly overlooked by the England selectors.  Personally, I've never seen it.  There's no doubt he's an impressively mobile prop, and against your average Premiership-standard prop he can do a decent job in the scrum – but he struggles against top internationals.  And against Dan Cole, a 3-Test British and Irish Lion, he certainly has his work cut out.  His track record against Leicester is not good but if the hosts are to have any hope of unleashing their gloriously talented outside backs, Wood simply has to help find a way to stop their scrum from imploding.  How he does that will be up to him – scrummage high, scrummage low, scrummage sideways, blatantly cheat…whatever works.  His resistance is that important to the Gloucester cause.

Leicester Team News

United States winger Blaine Scully and Argentina prop Marcos Ayerza both return to the Leicester line-up following international duty.   Adam Thompstone replaces the injured Matt Smith at centre.  Javiah Pohe could make his Premiership debut off the bench – keep an eye out for the powerful young centre.

Starting Line up:  Hamilton; Scully, Thompstone, Bowden, Benjamin; Flood (capt), B. Youngs; Ayerza, T. Youngs, Cole; Deacon, Kitchener; Gibson, Salvi, Waldrom.

Subs: Briggs, Stankovich, Balmain, De Chaves, Crane, Harrison, Williams, Pohe.

Key Player

Dan Bowden.  There's no doubting the Kiwi's talent and in fact, those in the know often speak of him as having one of the best passes in the Premiership.  But either he is not playing to his potential, or Tigers aren't using him in the correct way, but it isn't working for him at the moment.  He needs to start becoming a more direct presence – whilst still maintaining his slick hands – for Toby Flood to pivot off, otherwise the backs tend to drift listlessly across the pitch with nobody fixing their defenders.  He also, in particular for this game, needs to become more vocal, especially with a part-time outside centre paired next to him.  His ability to organise and martial both attack and defence will be key against an accomplished Leicester backline, but if he gets it working, you never know – the likes of Adam Thompstone and Miles Benjamin may just get a chance to stretch their legs.

 

Key Battle

Freddie Burns v Toby Flood.  The two England back-ups both have their own reasons for feeling aggrieved at not being more involved during the autumn, but this is the perfect chance to show Stuart Lancaster what he's missing – at the other's expense.  They will, of course, be having to orchestrate entirely different tactical games, with Burns having to kick well for his chasers and move the ball wide with speed and accuracy, whilst Flood will be probing the corners relentlessly to give the Leicester set piece the chance to break down the hosts' lineout.  But these are two good, attacking fly halves – who should be England's number one and two (in either order) in my opinion – and if the chance comes for them to take a gap themselves, you can bet they won't need a second invitation. 

PS As an interesting sub-plot, the rumours are the Flood has all but signed for a French/Japanese side next year, leaving a fairly large gap in the 10 shirt for the biggest club in England.  With Owen Williams deemed too inexperienced and Ryan Lamb seen to be too, well, Ryan Lamb, who could the Tigers possibly set their sights on?  You guessed it, Freddie Burns, if various sources are to be relieved.

Prediction

Backline flair v Forward power – I know which one the neutral would like to see come out on top.  But the rugby purist will acknowledge the bizarre beauty of a rolling maul, as well as that of a breathtaking counter attack, and the talents of both these sides in their respective departments makes this a very tricky game to call.  If Gloucester can gain just a foothold, or at least parity, in the set-piece and physical exchanges in the loose, then the game is theirs for the taking with the talent they have at their disposal.  However, this Leicester pack loves the backs-against-the-wall mentality and I can see a brutal forwards effort grinding out a win, as well as a not-so-popular penalty try or two.  A close one, but a vital win for the visitors is on the cards.  Tigers by 5.

What else is occurring across the premiership this weekend?

London Irish v London Wasps:  With both sides struggling to pick up wins, they'll be looking at this fixture as one to give their season a boost.  The loss of Marland Yarde is huge for Irish, and I have a feeling that Christian Wade may just find some joy on the wide Reading pitch.  Wasps by 8.

Saracens v Sale Sharks:  Sale look like an entirely different proposition this season than last, thanks in part to an apparently reinvented Danny Cipriani.  Sarries though will be confident at home and, given their record, rightfully so.  Sarries by 12.

Worcester Warriors v Northampton Saints: Dean Ryan's men remain winless and it's hard to see them doing any better against one of the in-form teams in the premiership.  Saints' pack and firepower out wide should see them cruise to victory.  Saints by 16.

Bath v Exeter Chiefs:  In a cracking West Country derby, the ever resilient Chiefs take on a Bath side on their best run of form for years.  Home advantage and, more importantly, confidence will be the key factors here in a win for the hosts.  Bath by 7.

Newcastle Falcons v Harlequins:  Dean Richards faces his old side for the first time since 'that day' on Sunday.  I should imagine that any pride Deano has in seeing the revolution he started at Quins will be quickly wiped away as the Londoners pick up a hard fought victory up north.  Quins by 6.

Update - I'm on holiday

If you were  on here looking for a premiership preview for this weekend, I'm afraid to give you some terrible news. I'm away on a holiday in Rome and, try as I might to convince the other half that rugby blogging is an acceptable part of a romantic weekend away, she didn't quite see it that way.

BUT, wipe the tears from your eyes, I will be back with a  full review of Exeter v Saracens early next week.

So, briefly, I would state that I expect the Chiefs to spring a surprise and nick a 2 point win over Sarries this weekend at Sandy Park.  If you can pick yourself up from the monumental loss of not having a proper preview, enjoy a great weekend of rugby and look forward to catching some highlights next week.

Autumn International Review - England 22 - 30 New Zealand

Waiting for the All Blacks to play at Twickenham is a little bit like waiting for a first date with a professional kick-boxer.  If it goes well, you’ll get a hell of a lot of street credibility and people aren’t going to mess with you anymore, and if goes badly then you will not only end up with the stuffing kicked out of you but also pretty comprehensively embarrassed as well.  It’s why England fans were perhaps a little nervous going into Saturday’s fixture – shorn of key attacking weapons in Alex Corbisiero and Manu Tuilagi, and the raw talent of Marland Yarde and Christian Wade, it was difficult to see how they could threaten a side that has topped the world rankings for 4 consecutive years and won its last 12 games against top-quality opposition.  There may have been hope for a glorious victory and a great night out – but the expectation was for the ‘stuffing-kicking’ outcome instead.

Those fears seemed to be realised when the visitors exploded out of the blocks in the opening minutes at Twickenham.  Lancaster would have emphasised to his men the utter importance of kicking with accuracy against the best counter attackers in the world, but instead Lee Dickson kicked too far for his chasers, and too short to place the All Blacks under pressure.  The visitors counter attacked through Ma’a Nonu, who forced Mike Brown to concede a throw by his own line.  From the lineout, Carter’s quick flick was picked up by the wonderfully influential Kieran Read, who drew in 3 defenders by the touchline before flicking it back inside to the returning Julian Savea, and the big winger strode in unopposed for the game’s opening score after just 2 minutes.  Dickson was again partly to blame for the huge gap that opened up for Savea, unnecessarily committing to the tackle on Read when he was being dealt with by Chris Ashton and Billy Vunipola, compounding a disappointing start for the England 9.

The Twickenham crowd seemed shell-shocked but England, to their credit, wasted no time in looking for a counter punch.  After Ben Foden rose majestically to take the restart, Billy Twelvetrees and Vunipola carried strongly to build field position and force the All Blacks into conceding a penalty when Carter failed to roll away.  Owen Farrell stepped up and kicked the 3-pointer, and the hosts were off the mark.  Perhaps the opening couple of minutes were just a fluke for the All Blacks?

Any thoughts that might have been pertaining to that notion were swiftly dispelled as the world champions proceeded to boss the next 10 minutes, with Dan Carter varying the attack beautifully and taking advantage of England’s narrow defence – using quick hands or cross-field kicks to put the likes of Savea and the electric Charles Piutau into space.  With Read still offloading with sublime dexterity, the men in white had the likes of Chris Robshaw, Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes to thank for some intelligent and aggressive defending that kept the relentless waves of black from their line – for a while.  After Ben Foden had raced away with an intercept – only to be called back for an offside penalty which was knocked over by Carter – England found themselves unable to mount any pressure of their own, turning over possession on every attack with Joel Tomkins particularly guilty on a number of occasions.  By contrast, the All Blacks were utterly clinical.  After prop Ben Franks had burst through a gap left by a miscommunication between Robshaw and Dan Cole, the ball was spun right to Read, who galloped past Foden to dive over in the corner.  Carter swept over a magnificent conversion and the visitors had a seemingly unassailable lead of 14 points.

Seemingly unassailable to us mere fans, but not to Robshaw, as he showed big cajones in turning down a kickable penalty off the restart to go for the corner.  It was a statement of intent that eventually paid dividends, with the England packs snarling and smashing their way over the All Blacks line twice.  The first time, off a lineout drive, there was no clear evidence of Vunipola grounding the ball – despite all common sense opinions suggesting that he had managed to do so – but there was little doubt the second time. Cole made mincemeat of Tony Woodcock in the scrum and, although the ball went loose at the base, Launchbury scooped up the pill to touch down for his second try in as many tests.  Farrell’s conversion brought England within 7. 

Twickenham was then subjected to the sad sight of seeing Carter leave on the day of his 100^th cap, but the All Blacks game hardly suffered with substitute Aaron Cruden immediately knocking over 3 points for the visitors following an offside by Robshaw and Twelvetrees.  The All Blacks were rocked, though, by the sight of Read trotting off the field to the sinbin following a series of infringements by the men in black.  It not only meant that Farrell could claw 3 points back from the ensuing penalty, but he also could add another 3 five minutes later as the England scrum took advantage of the weakened Kiwi pack to claim another favourable blast of Craig Joubert’s whistle, taking the hosts to within 4 points at the half time break.

It had been absorbing, relentlessly physical and fast.  Despite concerns that they couldn’t compete, England were taking control of possession and territory, with their pack gradually gaining the upper hand in the colossal arm wrestle between the two sets of forwards.  The second half started as intensely as the first one finished and, after Chris Ashton had kicked away a promising opportunity built by powerful carries from Cole, Twelvetrees and Vunipola, Cruden hit the posts with a tricky penalty.  Farrell, though, was looking utterly unshakeable off the tee, and added two penalties after Ashton was impeded chasing a kick and Richie McCaw was penalised for going off his feet in a ruck.  For the first time in the match, England were in the lead – and they were good value for it, too, as the English pack broke the gainline time and again against the All Blacks.

But this New Zealand side hasn’t carried the title of ‘the most dominant team in the history of the world’ for no reason.  Aided by England’s faltering lineout – which coincided with the introduction of Tom Youngs – the world champions once again demonstrated their uncanny ability to strike at crucial moments, just when the game seemed to be slipping away from them.  They injected another 10% - another 10% no side in the world seems to possess – and the likes of Israel Dagg and Charles Piutau began to purr into life as the All Blacks started hammering the England line.  The defence, from Farrell, Robshaw and Mike Brown in particular, was superb, but eventually something slipped – and it was an opening created by a piece of All Black magic that has become almost mundane with this side.  With quick ball, Ma’a Nonu slipped a sensational offload between Lawes and Ben Morgan, allowing Savea to show immense strength to touch down despite an excellent double tackle from Brown and Youngs.  Cruden made no mistake with the conversion, and the natural order had been restored.

The momentum had shifted, and it was a momentum that the men in black carried through to the end.  Despite intelligent kicking from substitute Ben Youngs and big carries from Morgan, the All Blacks had the extra class where it mattered – with Piutau causing havoc in the open spaces and Read continuing to drive forward.  England were out on their feet, and it showed as Toby Flood failed to roll away and was penalised, giving Cruden 3 points, before the last 10 minutes played out with the hosts failing to make the same indents in the Kiwi defence as they had done over the middle 40 of the game.  It left the final score at 22 – 30 to the visitors; the best side in the world continued their quest for a magnificent perfect season with their 13^th straight victory.

But, in defeat, England finally answered some questions.  Some of the answers were negative – Joel Tomkins is not an international-quality centre, Chris Ashton and Ben Foden do not provide adequate threat on the wings, despite their industry – but the vast majority of answers were positive.  England officially have a pack to take on and better the world’s best.  Billy Twelvetrees can make the step up to take on top-level internationals.  There is now a real depth of talent and genuine competition for places up front.  It’s not the complete package, but it’s a start – and a good job, too.  The countdown begins now.

 

England Player Ratings

Mike Brown – 8 – Consistently very good.  Safe at the back and always beating defenders going forward.  Some of his defensive work was magnificent.  Has made the 15 shirt his own.

Chris Ashton – 6 – Probably his best performance of the autumn, but not good enough to keep his critics at bay.  Looked lively with some good carries at times, but kicked the ball away in a great position in the second half.

Joel Tomkins – 4 – I like Tomkins, he’s an honest, hard-working player, but he’s not good enough.  His handling was disappointing and he offered no threat whatsoever going forward.

Billy Twelvetrees – 8 – A game in which he grew up.  Some superb stepping and carrying, coupled with decent distribution, finally helped fix and draw in All Blacks defenders. 

Ben Foden – 6 – Thought he’d scored with a sharp intercept, but it wasn’t to be.  Utter commitment throughout and did nothing wrong, but had no chance to show his running ability in open space.

Owen Farrell – 7 – You cannot put a price on that ability to build points on a the scoreboard.  Was flawless off the kicking tee and great in defence, but questions still remain over his ability to run a backline.

Lee Dickson – 5 – An awful start handed the initiative to New Zealand and all too often he got caught dithering at the base of a ruck.  Improved as the game went on with some tenacious defensive work.

Joe Marler – 7 – Held his own in the scrum very well and was a real force in defence, with one hit on Nonu in particular rattling the bones of everyone watching.

Dylan Hartley – 7 – Not quite as obvious as last week, but still a powerful figure in the loose and ran a perfect lineout.  A couple of silly penalties at key points restricts his score, though.

Dan Cole – 8 – Justified his return.  Became more dominant in the scrum as the game progressed and, on watching the game a second time, he got through a huge amount of work at ruck time.  Key to England’s continuity in the middle period.

Joe Launchbury – 8 – Was well on his way to another man of the match performance before being forced off with a shoulder injury.  A grafter and a poacher – carrying strongly, tackling hard and staying alert for his try.

Courtney Lawes – 9 – Magnificent.  That second row berth now has three worthy contenders but Lawes looks to have finally lived up to his promise, delivering shuddering hit after hit and carrying with a colossal amount of dynamism.  England’s man of the match – though I’d give the overall award to Kieran Read (despite his yellow card and Savea’s clinical display).

Tom Wood – 8 – I’ve usually thought the ‘new Richard Hill’ tag was a little over the top, but I stand corrected.  Unfussy, unspectacular, massively effective.  An absolute workhorse around the park who was everywhere in defence.  Would like to see him carry more though.

Chris Robshaw – 8 – Loses a mark for his role in the All Blacks’ second try but was pretty much flawless aside from that.  Carried hard, tackled harder and worked expertly in slowing the All Blacks’ ball down.  Matched McCaw – there are not many who can claim that.  Led with intelligence and passion as well, inspiring his side by playing on despite sporting a gigantic shiner that effectively meant he had to play with one eye closed.

Billy Vunipola – 8 – Aggressive and effective.  Was not overawed by the occasion and gave his all for an hour before running out of puff.  Constantly attracted at least 3 defenders.

Subs used

Tom Youngs – 5 – Not the impact he would have wanted.  Some dynamic work in the loose couldn’t hide the fact that the lineout faltered when he was introduced.

Dave Wilson – No time to make an impact.

Geoff Parling – 6 – A busy display although he was unable to make some of the obvious inroads that Launchbury did.  Gave his all.

Ben Morgan – 8 – Matched Vunipola in the short time he was on for effectiveness on the carry as he impersonated an angry rhinoceros.  England now have two gargantuan number 8s capable of causing havoc.

Ben Youngs – 6 – Kicked well but the supply of quick ball was drying up by the time he got onto the field.

Toby Flood – 5 – No time to have an impact with the ball in hand and will be disappointed – although arguably not to blame – for the penalty that effectively sealed the game.

Alex Goode – No time to make an impact.

 

The All Blacks are Alright - What makes them the best side in the world?

As the All Blacks march into London, self-heralded as the most dominant team in the history of the world – which isn't entirely inaccurate – Ruckedover asks, as every other person seems to be, what makes New Zealand so annoyingly good?

 

1.            They run straight

I declare myself a genius.  I have deciphered the mythical code behind the All Blacks’ awesome back play, and it is...they run straight.  Of course, they have a couple of set moves where some players may run loops or other twiddly lines, but even then their decoy runners and the strike runner himself will be running dead straight.  But most importantly of all is their ability to put the ball through the hands whilst fixing defenders – look at any counter attack, and you’ll see Carter running straight, Nonu running straight.  In fact you’ll see the entire backline surging forward, waiting for the gap to open up due to a defender drifting early, or putting the ball through the hands until the extra man has the ball in space.  It’s what makes them the most deadly counter attackers and exploiters of overlaps in world rugby – compare that to England, or even Wales, and you’ll see that far too often the fly halves drift sideways and allow the defenders to cover off the space out wide.

 

2.            Their support runners have depth

It's another basic rule you get taught in under 8s but it seems to get forgotten about in this country as you are force-fed more complex and pointless backs moves, preferring to practice a triple-miss-switch-dummy-loop to a standard exercise of learning the speed of your fellow players so you are aware of where you need to be to take that all important offload.  Watch any game and you'll see that the All Blacks are always taking the ball at pace – they are never static or struggling for momentum.  But perhaps the key aspect of this, and the part that nets them the most spectacular tries, is that their depth allows them to surge onto offloads at full tilt as opposed to over running it.  In the northern hemisphere – perhaps due to the fact offloading is still a 'developing' concept – support runners tend to be shallower, ready for the clear out in case the carrier goes to deck.  It's a practical, minor, but ultimately negative, approach to support play.

 

3.            They kick.  A lot.

What?  The All Blacks kick?  The all-singing, all-dancing All Blacks who score tries from all over the paddock play a boring kick game?  Well look at the stats from this year's Rugby Championship, and see if you can spot the pattern:

Team	Position in Rugby Championship	Possession Kicked
New Zealand	1st	11.7%
South Africa	2nd	10.7%
Australia	3rd	8.9%

Yes, the statistics prove that the more you kick, the more you win.  But it's not that simple – it's how New Zealand kick that makes them so effective.  They primarily only want to play rugby in the right areas, which is why they have two players – Israel Dagg and Dan Carter – who can probe corners with low, raking kicks, as well as having the best kick-chase in the world, with wingers and back row forwards chasing hard to challenge bombs and/or force the unfortunate recipient of a kick to hurriedly boot it back in roughly the direction it came from…giving plenty of territory and open space to the most dangerous counter-attackers in world rugby.  Kicking aimlessly and without a chase – a specialist tactic of England's over the last decade or so – is pointless, but an accurate and organised kicking game wins you matches.  That – coupled with the ability to spot it 'when it's on' (see below) – is what makes them the complete side.

4.            Rugby is religion.

Go to New Zealand and you will know you are in rugby country.  They have decent rugby league, football and cricket sides, but they are but side-shows to the main event.  The country breathes rugby.  Win, and the nation celebrates as one – lose, and it becomes a dark and desolate place.  In fact, a little known fact is that there was no CGI for Lord of the Rings' shots of Mordor and Mount Doom – the scenes were simply shot after the All Blacks had been knocked out of the 2003 World Cup by Australia.  What this obsession means, though, is that from a young age kids are ingrained with the All Blacks ideal of 'total rugby'.  They are not distracted by other sports – nor are they pigeon-holed into positions based on childhood size at an early age.  Each player will play everywhere until their early-teens, when they settle on a position.  It's why each and every player to pull on the black jersey can spot an opportunity or mismatch when it's on.  It's why guys like Tony Woodcock and Ben Franks are comfortable out in the backline and know all the basic moves – you can't imagine Dan Cole or Adam Jones acting as a subtle pivot or a trigger for a backline can you? 

The upshot of this is that the standard of schools rugby is phenomenal.  I've never played a New Zealand school but I was fortunate enough to watch a cup match a few years back, and it was comparable to a professional standard in England – far beyond what even the most prestigious rugby schools in England can offer.  Why?  Because entire towns support the local school – any fan of the excellent TV series 'Friday Night Lights' will be able to draw comparisons to the pressure Texan High School Football players are put under and that placed on New Zealand schoolboys.  But it develops professionalism and utter dedication from an early age, to the point where, in many cases, they can come straight out of school and into a professional side without a need for 'weaning' in the lower leagues (take Ardie Savea as a prime example this season for the Hurricanes). The end result is that the All Blacks have a conveyor belt of young talent without any need for upheaval.  Can you remember the last time the Kiwis went through such a massive change as England did after the 2003, 2007 or 2011 World Cups?  I don't.  Even now, guys like Aaron Cruden and Sam Cane are slowly building up to taking the mantle of key players when their time to step down eventually comes – this continuity of selection breeds confidence and ultimately, success.

5.            They are the All Blacks.

I normally swear loudly when I read this excuse in the papers, dismissing it as lazy journalism.  But think about it – they do have an aura.  Of course, practically, they are just men (admittedly gigantic men with a sensational skillset) in shirts, but when you see the side come out in the legendary All Black kit and face you down with the haka, the hairs on your neck do stand up.  To play them is to know that you are facing the ultimate challenge – and if that doesn't get your blood up, nothing will.  It's an aura that simply can't be replicated with other sides – Wales may have the superb stadium and support, England may have the all-white kit which itself is a striking feature, but nobody can match New Zealand when it comes to iconic features of the game.  Ask any non-player about rugby in the USA and the first image they'll be able to associate with it is the All Blacks performing the haka pre-game.

Clive Woodward was right to insist that his England team did not refer to New Zealand as the All Blacks – it helped demystify them.  If you defeat the aura, you can defeat the man in the shirt.  But it's so much easier said than done, especially when you are forced to stand there and have the world's best team work themselves into a frenzy with a threatening war-dance – what could England possibly offer to match that?  A Morris-dance, perhaps?  Come to think of it, the sight of Martin Johnson or Courtney Lawes skipping and waving hankerchiefs would be unnerving…

NB As an aside, I do feel that the 'magic' of the haka has been diminished by the wet blankets at the IRB (or overly-sensitive types within New Zealand rugby) insisting that teams have to line up and watch the haka from 20 metres away.  I loved the Welsh response of staring down their opponents after the haka, I loved Cockerill squaring up to Hewitt during the haka and I loved France's walking in on the haka.  If they're laying down their challenge, why should you not be able to respond in kind?  It's not always the best idea as it tends to wind them up, but it's pure sporting theatre.  And if I was Stuart Lancaster tomorrow, with defeat expected, I'd tell the boys to b*gger the fine (the RFU make enough money to pay it) and make a statement.  We will not be moved.

 

 
 

 

Why do you think the All Blacks are the most successful side in world rugby? 

Autumn International Preview - England v New Zealand

I've had every reason to be happy over the last week.  England picked up a win, I've moved to a lovely new city, work is good and the weather has been clear and sunny for the most part – happy days indeed.  But there is a dark cloud moving rapidly closer on the horizon, and I'm not talking about my first council tax bill.  No, the All Blacks have landed in London under the banner of 'the most dominant team in the history of the world' and are licking their lips as the prospect of gaining revenge against an England side who administered them a thorough and entirely surprising spanking at Twickenham last year.  Is the reference to dominance a sign of arrogance?  No, it's realism.  It's expectation.  It's world-class performance, time and again.

On paper, England have every right to be nervous going into this game.  Through injury, they have been shorn of their two most potent attacking weapons – Alex Corbisiero and Manu Tuilagi.  Both men were instrumental in their 38 – 21 win last year, with Corbisiero and Dan Cole dominating their opposite numbers at scrum time and Tuilagi causing chaos for Dan Carter and co in the backline.  The absence of those 2 British & Irish Lions, plus 3 others in the shapes of Mako Vunipola, Tom Croft and Brad Barritt, have severely tested England's resources.

England themselves have not been severely tested this autumn.  Sure, the Australia game was close but they looked comfortable throughout, and the same could be said for their display against the Pumas.  In both games, the men in white have put together a 40 minute showing of semi-coherent rugby, combined with another half of dour performance that makes your average paint-drying competition look like a JJ Abrams Epic.  A large part of that mediocrity, to be fair, has been limited to the backline (with the exception of the industrious Mike Brown) which has appeared for the large part as threatening as Mother Theresa.  The prime example for this average-ness is Joel Tomkins, although it is perhaps unfair to single one person out.  He's not powerful enough to break tackles, he's not quick enough to get around them, and he doesn't have the feet to bamboozle them.  Simply put, he is not a threat.  He is of course not helped by some listless drifting by Owen Farrell and Billy Twelvetrees and occasional indecisiveness from Lee Dickson, but if England are to stand a chance against the World Champions they will need to go back to basics and run hard, straight running lines to fix defenders.

New Zealand, on the other hand, have no such problems out wide, with the only area of question being Ben Smith filling the 13 shirt when he is usually a full back or wing.  But even that transition seems to have been seamless.  They're coming off a fairly handy record of played 33, won 31, drawn 1 and lost 1.  The conveyor of quality All Black sides and players continues to roll, but the dominance of this particular outfit cannot be underestimated.  Take a look at their game at Ellis Park against South Africa in the Rugby Championship.  South Africa played stupendously well – relentlessly physical and aggressive, fast and clinical – and yet the All Blacks still managed to raise the game to the point where they won one of the best matches I've ever seen fairly comfortably.  No other side could even have come close to South Africa that day.

So how are an injury ravaged and apparently uninspired England team to take on 'the most dominant team in the history of the world'?  I think it's time to revert to type.  Don't get wrong, I'd love to see the hosts chucking the ball wide and into space at the weekend, but the sad truth is that they don't have the players to worry the Kiwis, especially with Marland Yarde and Christian Wade injured, and Kyle Eastmond strangely ignored.  What England do have, though, is a damned fine pack that, on their day, can match and even bully anyone.  With Robshaw, Wood and Launchbury the workhorses, and Vunipola, Lawes and Hartley the tough ball carriers, England can physically dominate sides when in the right frame of mind.  And with the return of Dan Cole, a man who has repeatedly caused problems for Tony Woodcock, they may have half an eye on getting on top in the set piece too.  Saturday is a day for physicality, aggression, scrummaging, and intelligent kicking – not for trying to be flash.  Dominate up front, and there may just be a glimmer of a chance.

So when the All Blacks line up for their haka, the most dominant team in the world will be marking Twickenham as their turf.  I'd love to see the England pack walk up to the halfway and let them know they will not be moved.  Because we are in the calm before the storm right now – and the All Blacks will be desperate to show that lightening doesn't strike twice.

England Team News

Stuart Lancaster has made just one change to the side that put away Argentina last week.  British and Irish Lion Dan Cole starts at tight-head prop in place of David Wilson, who drops to the bench.  Loose-head prop Joe Marler is fit again after suffering concussion, while hooker Dylan Hartley wins his 50th cap after seeing off the challenge of Tom Youngs.   Wasps prop Matt Mullan is among the replacements, and could win his second cap, while Ben Youngs returns for Danny Care as the replacement scrum-half.   Only seven of the team started the surprise 38-21 win over the All Blacks at Twickenham in December last year.

Starting Line-up: Mike Brown; Chris Ashton, Joel Tomkins, Billy Twelvetrees, Ben Foden; Owen Farrell, Lee Dickson; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole; Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes; Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (captain), Billy Vunipola

Subs: Tom Youngs, Matt Mullan, Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Ben Morgan, Ben Youngs, Toby Flood, Alex Goode

Key Player

Dan Cole.  He may resemble Victor Meldrew on steroids, but there's a reason that Dan Cole is one of England's most experienced players, despite only making his debut in 2010.  An increasingly powerful presence in the set piece and a jackal over the ball at ruck time, he's become the cornerstone of England's pack to the point where Lancaster realised he's becoming over reliant on the Tigers man.  He's been in impressive scrummaging form this season after taking a couple of games to get to grips with the new rules, and in fact had the upper hand on fellow Lion Alex Corbisiero when Leicester and Northampton met earlier this year. Key to Saturday, however, is that Cole has generally always been on top whenever he has met loosehead Tony Woodcock previously.  That battle will be absolutely crucial if England are to have a hope in hell of winning this game.  Deprive the All Blacks of set piece ball and, provided you don't kick loosely to Israel Dagg and co at the back, then you shut their threat down at source.

New Zealand Team News

Fly-half Dan Carter will become the fifth All Black to win 100 caps after being named in the New Zealand starting XV to face England on Saturday.  The 31-year-old, who made his Test debut in 2003, is the world's leading Test points scorer with 1435.  He follows Richie McCaw, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock and Mils Muliaina in reaching 100 caps for the All Blacks.  Winger Julian Savea comes in to face England, the only change from the team that beat France 26-19 last weekend.   Savea missed that victory with illness but returns on the left wing, with Charles Piutau switching to the right and Cory Jane, who started his first Test of the year in Paris after a knee injury, dropping out of the match-day squad.  Among the replacements, lock Luke Romano comes in for back-rower Sam Cane to strengthen the All Blacks' second-row options.

Starting Line-up:  Israel Dagg; Charles Piutau, Ben Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea; Dan Carter, Aaron Smith; Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Liam Messam, Richie McCaw (captain), Kieran Read.

Subs: Dane Coles, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumuina, Luke Romano, Steven Luatua, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Aaron Cruden, Ryan Crotty.

Key Player

Liam Messam.  I was going to pick Dan Carter, but against an inexperienced England backline the new centurion should have no problems unlocking the defence with the vastly experienced and talented men outside him – provided he gets good ball.  Instead, I've gone for Liam Messam, who is very much the enforcer of the backrow.  He takes little in the way of plaudits, but Messam is a wrecking ball of a blindside who loves nothing more than crashing into tackles and breakdowns to help his side gain the physical upper hand.  Against South Africa, he was utterly immense, and he will know that England's only chance of winning will be to physically dominate the Kiwis like they did last year.  Messam will be determined not to let that happen again.

Key Battle

Chris Robshaw v Richie McCaw.  I almost resent picking two sevens as the key battle, as it almost seems lazy; the sort of thing Dewi Morris would do on Sky Sports before sitting back with undeservedly smug look on his face, as if he's just imparted some unfathomable wisdom.  But, in this case, it's impossible to look past the mouth-watering clash between the 2 captains.  Robshaw and McCaw will be two of the key players in the all-important battle of the breakdown, with McCaw the long established master of this area.  However, look at the stats and you'll see that the argument that Robshaw isn't a 'true openside' doesn't have much traction.  In their last 10 Tests, McCaw has averaged just 0.2 more turnovers per game than Robshaw (1.6 to 1.4), whilst Robshaw makes more tackles, carries more often and for greater yardage.  So where is the real difference?  That is in the areas that can't be measured, the slow 'rolling away' in the tackle, the pushing of the offside line – all cheeky aspects of openside play that McCaw has mastered.  Both are great leaders of men, and you fancy whoever gets on top between these two will inspire his men to greater things, but if Robshaw wants to emerge victorious he will need to lose that 'good boy' persona and get a little bit nasty.

 

Prediction

Some England fans may be feeling (or clinging on to) a sense of deja vous going into this fixture.  One year ago, the hosts were written off prior to the World Champions arriving, and instead produced a complete performance to shock the rugby world (admittedly aided by some dodgy seafood).  To win this time around, they need to be damned near perfect – they have to dominate the set piece, dominate the breakdown, dominate the collisions and dominate territory with a strong kicking game.  England are capable of winning any one of those areas – but winning them all?  That's a real stretch, especially with injuries to key players.  The All Blacks look just too classy at the moment, and with revenge in their eyes I can see them turning over this brave, but limited, England side relatively comfortably.  But isn't that what we said last year…? New Zealand by 12.

Let's see what's happening in the other Autumn Internationals this weekend:

Italy v Fiji:  The Italians have been nothing short of terrible of late, losing badly in South Africa over the summer and now getting hammered at home against the Wallabies.  Fiji though have failed to kick on from their impressive form in 2007, and should represent a good opportunity for the hosts to finally pick up a win.  Italy by 9.

Scotland v South Africa:  Loyal Scottish fans may be dreaming of a repeat of their glorious win over the Springboks a couple of years ago, but under Heyneke Meyer they've become a much more rounded side and should have enough in the tank to see off a physical challenge from the hosts.  South Africa by 13.

Wales v Argentina:  Wales have an opportunity to get back to winning ways and should make the most of it against a deflated Argentinian side, but need to be wary of a backlash after captain Sam Warburton declared they were "too good" to lose to the Pumas.  Wales by 14.

Ireland v Australia:  Possibly the tightest game of the weekend to call.  Australia may have lost to England but have been looking resurgent of late and their last display against Italy certainly showed that their attacking game is on song.  Ireland have home backing though and the pack will fancy their chances at winning the collisions.  Ireland by 3.

France v Tonga:  Tonga will arrive in Paris looking to rattle a few ribcages but that's as far as they'll go.  The French showed a good amount of physicality and invention last weekend and they'll have too much for the Islanders.  France by 25.

Autumn Internationals Review - England 31 - 12 Argentina

Playing Argentina as the middle game in a trio of Autumn Internationals, in between playing Australia and New Zealand, is a tricky prospect.  With the greatest respect to the Argentines, their recent form and current circumstances (with a new coach and rumours of a split in the camp) have put them several levels beneath the traditional Southern Hemisphere ‘big three’.  So, after one decent scalp and with the prospect of the mother of all challenges awaiting the next week, the players in white could perhaps be forgiven for not getting as up for this one as they might do for others.  It’s a bit like trying to get excited about eating a cheese sandwich in between a breakfast of smoked salmon and scrambled egg and a dinner of beef wellington.

But not Stuart Lancaster’s England.  No, the likeable Yorkshire man has insisted on all sorts of techniques to restore pride in the shirt – letters from family and friends, videos of classic matches and speeches from other famous patriotic sorts.  How much is PR garbage, I’m not sure, but what I am sure about is that he has achieved his goal on getting an England side that is honest and sincere in its intention to become the best side in the world.  Although that may be a fair way off, it starts with beating strong – but limited – sides like Argentina, and doing it comfortably in a clear, decisive manner.

Within minutes of kicking off, three things became clear.  Firstly, Argentina’s alternate strip is not only sensible, but it’s bloody sexy.  England marketing and clothing ‘gurus’, take note.  Secondly, kudos to Dylan Hartley for a very smart moustache that makes his look like a WW2 pilot.  Thirdly, England’s defence is looking more and more assured under the stewardship of Andy Farrell.  OK, Argentina may not exactly be the All Blacks when it comes to attacking play, but they looked very ordinary as the hosts repelled early possession from the Pumas, forcing Nicholas Sanchez to kick long to the dangerous Mike Brown.  England built momentum with good carries from Brown and Joe Marler, and eventually captain-for-the-day Juan Martin Leguizamon conceded a penalty, which was slotted by Owen Farrell.

The lead didn’t last for long though, as Juan Imhoff charged down Lee Dickson in the scrum half’s 22 as he attempted a clearance kick in apparent slow motion, allowing the visitors to build pressure and force the offside from the defence.  Sanchez made no mistake with the kick, and it was all square.  But this was quickly looking like a game that was anything but even, as Chris Robshaw turned down a kick at goal to go for the corner and, after a couple of attempts, the ever-present Joe Launchbury piled over the line as the hosts mauled their way over from 5 metres out.  It was some statement from the England pack.

Up front the men in white were looking assured in the loose and dominant at ruck time, with Tom Wood and Launchbury looking as energetic as ever, but the Argentines did at least have the upper hand in the scrum, where Marcos Ayerza earned a penalty out of David Wilson on halfway.  Marcelo Bosch stepped up and slammed over the 3 points, but England came straight back into Puma territory.  Dylan Hartley carried strongly to set up field position, eventually giving Ashton what looked like an easy finish – but the Saracens man opted to step inside instead of going for the corner, and was held up by Imhoff and Lucas Amorosino.  It was a try which Christian Wade, Marland Yarde, or even Ashton 2 years ago would have finished with their eyes closed.  Running backwards.

Luckily for the much-maligned England winger, he had a chance to instantly make amends, and he did so by popping up a loose ball from the ensuing scrum into the hands of Billy Twelvetrees, who barged his way over from 5 metres to give England their second try and help erase the memory of being steam rollered the week before.  Things were to get even better for the hosts after Farrell’s conversion as they dominated the next 10 minutes as well, winning the collisions and generating quick ball which Brown, Wood, Twelvetrees and Hartley utilised to good effect, making significant yardage.  A short range lineout and series of drives eventually opened up space on the blindside, giving Ashton a clear run to the line.  The try was given, but replays showed that the Sarries winger was too busy sliding on his arse to actually put the ball down in time.  Seriously, what is the matter with him?  Nothing was the matter with Farrell’s boot, however, as he slammed over a superb conversion from the touchline, leaving the halftime score 24 – 6 to England.

The crowd found themselves enjoying a half time break and being able to reflect on one of the most impressive first half displays by an England side for a good while.  Their game had power through their key ball carriers, the pack were producing quick ball, and even the backline was showing some cohesion – even if not a huge amount of penetration.  Another half of that and there would be a real springboard for the game against the All Blacks.  Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be.

What was to be, though, was a complete switch off from the entire England side.  Lee Dickson was pinged for feeding at the scrum, Argentina mauled England’s pack into the ground and Sanchez added 3 points.  The hosts were starting to make mistakes they weren’t making in the first half and key players began to go missing; Tom Wood was penalised for lazily going off his feet, Dylan Hartley stopped carrying with the phenomenal energy he had showed in the first half and the backline began to overrun the ball on a regular basis.  In fact, as a spectacle, the game became so scrappy and eye-bleedingly bad that crowd’s biggest cheer was reserved for the sight of David Beckham in the stands on the big screen.  

Even the introduction of usually-electric Danny Care did little to improve England’s pace or cohesion.  Sanchez knocked over another penalty for the visitors, but in reality nothing of note was happening for either side.  Argentina were still creating next to nothing with the ball in hand, England were playing far to laterally and still mistakes were being made – the lack of intensity was worrying.  The two pluses, if any, for the hosts, were the way in which their scrum came back to dominate the opposition following the introductions of Alex Corbisiero, Tom Youngs and Dan Cole, and how their defence dealt with a typically physical but limited attack on their line by the Pumas.

But, just as the crowd were getting up to leave – as much to ease the boredom as to avoid the traffic – a successful lineout (which had become ropey following Tom Youngs’ introduction) gave clean quick ball to substitute Ben Morgan, who charged through some pretty flimsy tackling to run in and score from 20 metres out.  It gave the scoreline a pleasant gloss at the end of the game – 31-12 – but the reality was that the good work of the first half had all but almost been undone by the sloppy laziness of the second.

It looks like, once again, that England will go into a clash against the All Blacks with more questions than answers.  That may have worked for them last time out, but you get the impression that the All Blacks will be providing a somewhat sterner examination next week.  The men in white better start doing their homework.

 

England Player Ratings

Mike Brown – 7 – Not a spectacular as last week but still a reliable presence at the back and demonstrated his uncanny ability to beat the first man.  Just loves attacking.

Chris Ashton – 5 – OK, well done on the try Chris (although it wasn’t a try) but otherwise he looks too slow, indecisive and defensively suspect to be an international winger at the moment.  In my opinion, it would be more of a risk to play him instead of the inexperienced Christian Wade against the All Blacks.

Joel Tomkins – 4 – This may sound harsh, considering he did nothing particularly wrong, but your 13 has to offer something.  I’m yet to see him offer anything.  No step, no real pace and not enough power to excuse the lack of the first two.  There have to be other options.

Billy Twelvetrees – 7 – Got sloppy in the second half, but was sharp for the first period, taking his try well and distributing with precision.  There’s still more to come though, I feel.

Ben Foden – 6 – Challenged and chased gamely and looked to get involved wherever possible, but didn’t find the space to show what he can really do.

Owen Farrell – 6 – Another to fade badly in the second half.  His kicking and decision making was excellent in the first half, despite his distribution still being slightly wobbly, but made some glaring mistakes in the second 40.

Lee Dickson – 6 – Stuart Barnes may have been getting excited but I didn’t quite buy it.  His service was decent, no doubt, but he still made some errors at key times which handed initiative back to the Pumas.

Joe Marler – 5 – Carried with real energy and power but struggled in the scrum – which is no disgrace against Argentina.  Replaced at half time with concussion.

Dylan Hartley – 9 – A real statement from the Northampton man.  Ran from depth and with aggression and was mostly accurate in the lineout.  Loses the man of the match award because, as a leader, he shouldn’t have faded in influence as he did.

Dave Wilson – 5 – He didn’t play badly but he probably didn’t take his chance.  Carried reasonably well but struggled against Marcos Ayerza in the set piece.

Joe Launchbury – 9 – Often unseen, but always excellent.  One of the few players to not fade in the second period, he was everywhere – making tackles and a nuisance of himself in the ruck.  Scored a deserved first try.  Man of the match.

Courtney Lawes – 8 – Another very good showing from the rejuvenated lock.  Just when you thing he’s gone quiet, bang!  There he is.  Frightens opposition half backs.

Tom Wood – 7 – Loses a mark for conceding several kickable penalties in the second half, but he was very impressive early on, carrying hard and dominating the tackle area.

Chris Robshaw – 7 – Another all-action performance but he will be disappointed he was not able to rally his troops in the second half as they lost their concentration.

Billy Vunipola – 6 – Not quite as destructive as last week, but still a couple of big charges got the stadium shaking.  Decision making was a bit off at times.

 

Subs used

Tom Youngs – 5 – The new dad probably had his mind on more important matters, but a couple of skewed throws has put his starting spot in doubt.

Alex Corbisiero – 7 – Helped recover and, eventually, gain the upper hand in the set piece.  A welcome return.

Dan Cole – 7 – Along with Corbisiero, got on top of the Puma front row in the second half and probably cemented his starting spot for next week.

Geoff Parling – 5 – Despite being impeded, he will be a little disappointed at failing to take a couple of key restarts.  The misfortune of being injured may have cost him his place.

Ben Morgan – 8 – Made a statement when he came on by taking the ball at pace and from depth, scoring an impressive try in the process.

Danny Care – 1 – I’ve deducted 5 points for the vomit inducing moustache and haircut combo he is cultivating.  Aside from that, a decent showing but was unable to up the tempo.

Toby Flood – 6 – Solid, with some nice footwork thrown in.  Was desperate for some decent ball, but saw next to none.

Alex Goode – Not enough time to have an impact.

 

What else was happening in the world of international rugby at the weekend?

France 19 – 26 New Zealand:  The All Blacks came out on top in an ultra-physical battle against Les Bleus, with magic from Charles Piutau proving the difference between the sides.  The winger scored one and set up another for Kieran Read, whilst the hosts crossed through Brice Dulin.

Ireland 40 – 9 Samoa:  Ireland cut loose against a weakened Samoa side with a dominant second half display.  The men in green scored tries through Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien, Dave Kearney (2) and Fergus McFadden.

Wales 15 – 24 South Africa:  Wales yet again failed to register a win against a Southern Hemisphere side, although they were rocked by injuries to key players Jonathan Davies and Adam Jones early on.  They were outscored 3 – 0 though, as Jean De Villiers, Bismarck Du Plessis and Fourie Du Preez touched down for the Springboks.

Scotland 42 – 17 Japan:  Scotland eventually put a gallant Japan side to the sword, scoring 6 tries in the process.  Tommy Seymour (2), Greg Laidlaw, Duncan Weir, Alasdair Dickinson and Sean Lamont all scored for the hosts, with Kenki Fukoaka grabbing a double for the Cherry Blossoms.

Italy 20 – 50 Australia:  The Wallabies bounced back from disappointment at Twickenham by hammering the Azzurri in Rome.  Ben Mowen, Tevita Kuridrani, Nick Cummins (2), Adam Ashley-Cooper, Joe Tomane and Israel Folau scored for the men in gold, with Luck McLean and Lorenzo Cittadini responding for the hosts.