Six Nations Preview - England v Ireland

 

One thing is universally agreed amongst rugby fans, players and coaches – props aren’t sexy.  Unless you’re Martin Castrogiovanni of course.  But in the main, they are tough, grizzled warriors with faces like scrunched up paper bags who prefer the idea of butting heads with a 20 stone counterpart than any element of stardom or limelight.  Leave that to the backs, or even the odd maverick hooker.  They don’t want the media’s attention and, due to the unglamorous nature of what they do, they very rarely get it.  And it’s all this that would otherwise make it surprising that the focus of the build up has been on one of the least glamorous and grumpiest props of them all – Dan Cole.

But then you consider the reasons.  The 26 year old has been a fixture in the side since the age of 22, a remarkably young age for an international prop, and has already picked up 46 international caps.  Arguably the first name on both Leicester’s and England’s teamsheet, the supersized Victor Meldrew look-a-like has played a hell of a lot of rugby over the last two years – non-stop in fact.  And perhaps it should have been no surprise that he didn’t quite live up to the magnificent standards he set at the end of 2012, and even no great surprise that he has suffered a serious neck injury – a slipped disc, effectively – that will rule him out of rugby for at least 3 months.  With injuries and lack of suitable alternatives meaning that he was regularly being called upon to play 80 minutes for club and country – a rarity these days – England have become over-reliant on him to the point that, now he has been ruled out, a wave of hysteria has gripped the rugby playing community as the men in white prepare to welcome the Irish to Twickenham on Saturday.

His replacement is Dave Wilson.  Big Dave is a worthy opponent for Cole’s shirt on his day and offers more of a carrying presence, but after months out with a calf injury he looked jaded on his return for Bath.  His instant acceleration into the England team is further evidence that the depth isn’t there yet, with the other alternative – Henry Thomas – still very inexperienced for both club and country.  It’s turned what was meant to be an area of potential dominance for England – the scrum – into a potential battleground with supremacy well and truly up for grabs.

Of course, England have more than a scrum in their armoury.  Their physicality and carrying around the fringes has been impressive so far, as has been the pace of their attack, with the likes of Billy Vunipola, Mike Brown and Dylan Hartley all thriving off the high tempo that the pack and Danny Care have been generating.  They’ll be looking to administer a similar treatment to Ireland as they did last year in Dublin – suffocating the life out of their opposite numbers and grinding them down physically as the game wears on.  The bench too, remains an area of potential strength in the forwards – as long as the otherwise superb Tom Youngs gets his throwing sorted (which has been excellent for his club until last weekend) – and the introduction of George Ford could perhaps be the start of a new era.  I was not alone in thinking he had made a mistake in leaving Leicester – especially when the rumours of Toby Flood’s departure broke – but he has excelled with the greater gametime and he now looks to be ready for international rugby.

England as a whole will need to be ready for one heck of a fight though on Saturday.  Charging their way over to Twickenham is a monstrously physical pack led by the ever-angry Paul O’Connell and the even-angrier Peter O’Mahony, fresh off the back of a relentless bullying of the Welsh 8 in Dublin.  Joe Schmidt has picked a side with both youth and a spine of real experience – and worryingly, for England, Ireland have never lost a Six Nations game in which Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connoll and Gordon D’Arcy have all started (although, surprisingly, there’s been only 5...).  But the Irish gameplan will be, I suspect, the same as it was against Ireland.  A plan built on manic aggression and control of the breakdown by the pack, and executed with precision in a battle for territory from the boots of Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton, who will certainly be wanting to test out the relatively inexperienced Jonny May and Jack Nowell under the high ball.  Shmidt has injected a new level of confidence and understanding into the Irish side in the short time he’s been in charge, and it based on a gameplan that is precise as it is physical.

And this fixture has brutality written all over it.  These are two sets of forwards who both want to think of themselves as the most physically dominant force in Europe, and it makes the battle for territory between the 2 pairs of halfbacks even more crucial.  Hang on a second, a 16-man bruise-fest with a glut of chess-like kicking?  That doesn’t sound very sexy either.  But, as Dan Cole himself would attest to – rugby isn’t always glamorous.  Sometimes it’s about who’s willing to bleed for the cause, who’s willing to get up and take another hit for their mates, who’s willing to dig to new depths for his team’s cause.  It might not be sexy, but it is bloody compelling.  You won’t be able to look away come Saturday.

England Team News

With Dan Cole out for the rest of the season, Wilson has been fast-tracked back into the side despite having played just 47 minutes of rugby in the past two months due to a calf injury. Henry Thomas continues on the bench as tight-head replacement.   In one other change to the matchday 23, George Ford is handed a spot on the bench in place of Brad Barritt. Ford is part of the Elite Playing Squad and will make his debut if he is given the chance on Saturday.

Starting Line up:  Mike Brown, Jack Nowell, Luther Burrell, Billy Twelvetrees, Jonny May, Owen Farrell, Danny Care; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley, David Wilson, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (captain), Billy Vunipola

Subs: Tom Youngs, Mako Vunipola, Henry Thomas, Dave Attwood, Ben Morgan, Lee Dickson, George Ford, Alex Goode

Key Player

David Wilson.  I make no apologies for the boringly obvious selection, but when you replace a man who has developed into the anchor of the English pack and a top-class tighthead, you should expect a little bit of extra heat.  Despite Dan Cole looking tired after effectively 18 months of non-stop rugby, he was still a reliable presence in the set piece and like an extra flanker in the loose, and Dave Wilson – whilst being a worthy rival when fully fit – has spent the last two months on his backside with a calf injury.  He didn’t look match fit against Exeter at the weekend and he hasn’t exactly stoked confidence by saying that he ‘hopes’ he can last 50-60 minutes.  Test match rugby is not a place for uncertainty, and with Quasimodo’s uglier twin Cian Healy now a much improved scrummager, Wilson must find that set-piece solidarity that impressed so much earlier on this season.  If England can gain at least parity there, they will be confident of a win – but if Ireland get the nudge on in the scrum, their pack will sense blood...and there’s currently no hungrier pack in Europe.

Ireland Team News

Ireland go into Saturday's Test looking to continue their unbeaten start to the campaign and have kept the faith with the same side that eased past Wales in round two. Ireland boss Joe Schmidt has made two changes to the bench with Iain Henderson in for the injured Dan Touhy and the uncapped Jordi Murphy providing back-row cover.

Starting Line up: Rob Kearney, Andrew Trimble, Brian O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy, Dave Kearney, Jonathan Sexton, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Mike Ross, Devin Toner, Paul O'Connell (captain), Peter O'Mahony, Chris Henry, Jamie Heaslip

Subs: Sean Cronin, Jack McGrath, Martin Moore, Iain Henderson, Jordi Murphy, Isaac Boss, Paddy Jackson, Fergus McFadden

Key Player

Peter O’Mahony.  The big Irish flanker has broken the mould of blindsides by charging into the limelight.  Shame on him.  The blindside flanker brigade pride themselves in doing the dirty work that nobody appreciates – making the hard yards, forcing invisible turnovers and shunting in with solid hits.  But the Munster skipper did almost too much dirty work against Wales last week, forcing turnover after turnover and dominating the collisions to such an extent that people actually appreciated what he was doing.  For a number 6, this is almost unheard of, and I’m not sure whether to be appalled or seriously impressed.  Of course, I’ll side with the latter, and the men in green will be looking to him for more of the same come Saturday, because he’ll be facing one heck of a threat against the English backrow.  With an in-form and fully fit Robshaw and Wood acting as a double-team set of ‘grafters’ Mahony is going to have make sure he is ultra effective at the breakdown to combat England’s speed to the ball, and that’s before worrying about the colossal ball-carrying power of Billy Vunipola.  But if Mahony plays like he did last week, as a force of nature, he can make the breakdown a real lottery for the English pack, and that will kill crucial momentum dead.

Key Battle

Owen Farrell v Johnny Sexton.  If somebody had told me 6 months ago that they had seen, in two different games, one fly half make clean breaks and another put on a masterclass of tactical kicking you would put the house on the Irishman being the exponent of the fancy footwork.  Instead, it’s a signal of how far these two have come since the Lions tour that they are both far more rounded players than before.  Farrell is taking the ball to the line far more and, although his decision making is still questionable at times, is providing a far more solid attacking platform than he was before.  Sexton, to be fair, has always had a cannon of a boot on him, but the ability to vary his kicking game under pressure wasn’t always obvious – until last weekend.  Both appear to have learnt traits from spending time with one another, and now they are both key men in what will surely be one of the tightest battles of the championship.  I can see the war between the forwards being intense and pretty even, which means it may well come down to who can get their side in the right positions and who can execute when the opportunities arise.  Sexton has the pedigree and class, but Farrell has shown he relishes the opportunity to prove doubters wrong.  This has all the makings of an epic, and crucial, encounter.

Prediction

This has become an annoyingly difficult one to call.  Before the tournament started, I would have suggested England at a canter.  After the last round, I would have suggested England would win a fairly tight game.  Now that Dan Cole is out injured, and the anchor of the English scrum is gone and the replacements are either half-injured or 13 years old, it’s a very difficult one to call.  In all seriousness, Wilson and Thomas have a huge job to do between them.  It is absolutely critical that they can, at least, stabilise the scrum – failure to do so will give this buoyant Irish pack the springboard they need to physically best their opponents.  However, I can see this forward battle being monumentally tight, with hugely powerful and intelligent figures on both sides, and the tactical battle of the half backs will be key.  With home advantage, my guess is that England will just about edge it – but they better brace themselves for one hell of an assault.  England by 3.

What else is happening in the Six Nations this weekend?

Wales v France:  Yes, Friday night games in Cardiff are back, for better or for worse.  What is interesting is the prospect of seeing big George North line up in the centres for the hosts, and it will be intriguing to see how the pack responds to being bullied last week.  I suspect that the French will succumb to their usual struggles away from home, though – Wales by 7.

Italy v Scotland:  Poor Scotland.  Just when the hysteria over their frankly rubbish performance against England has died down, Scott Johnson takes another leaf from the French Coach’s Guide to Selection and drops his most effective player, Dave Denton.  I really do despair for them.  Italy have looked impressive without looking clinical, but this is the opportunity they’ve been craving in front of their home crowd.  Italy by 5.

 

It’s easy to forget there’s a whole round of Premiership fixtures on this weekend too:

Bath v London Wasps:  Bath are the feel-good team in the league at the moment and they’ll have too much class at home for Wasps.  Bath by 12.

Gloucester v Harlequins:  Always an entertaining game, it will be interesting to see how Quins cope without their England contingent.  I’m going to lean towards a ‘surprise’ home win, based on their display at Welford Road last week.  Gloucester by 2.

Worcester Warriors v Sale Sharks:  Warriors have looked far more impressive in recent weeks but this still looks like a fixture they won’t be able to crack.  The Sharks are looking very tough this year.  Sharks by 6.

London Irish v Leicester Tigers:  Leicester’s last two performances have been some of their worst of the last two years, whilst Irish’s last two have been their best.  Hence, I’m going for a ‘shock’ home win.  Irish by 4.

Newcastle Falcons v Northampton Saints:  Falcons will be tough to beat but they’re on a bad run of results at the moment.  There’s too much class in the Saints team, even without their internationals.  Saint by 9.

Saracens v Exeter Chiefs:  Exeter seem to be running out of luck at the moment and they’re unlikely to find it at Saracens’, despite the Londoners looking a little shakey in the last 2 rounds.  Sarries by 6.