Friday, 7 November 2014

Autumn International Preview - England v New Zealand


 
They say that you can't have too much of a good thing.  Well, that's nonsense.  Playing the All Blacks once is an honour, a privilege and spectacle.  Playing them four times on the bounce is about as good for your confidence as standing starkers on an icy winter's day in front of a group of particularly harsh Victoria's Secret models.  But as England line up to face the mighty New Zealand once again, all memories will be cast back to that summer series – a series where England were unlucky, brave and outclassed in three separate games.  What positives can England take from a whitewash?

Well, aside from the last game, where injuries and fatigue seemed to leave the men in white out on their feet, England did create a bit of a stir down under.  With a severely depleted side in the First Test, England went within 7 minutes of claiming a famous win against the World Champions, whilst a stirring comeback saw the visitors come within one point in round two.  They know that the All Blacks are human – and they know they can beat them at home.  But actually doing it, actually pulling the trigger?  That seems as difficult as ever.

For me, England are not in great shape for this test.  Listen to this list – Corbisiero, Mako Vunipola, Tom Youngs, Cole, Parling, Launchbury, Croft, Tuilagi and Yarde.  These are all proven internationals who would expect to be in – or very close to – the match day squad, but are absent due to injury.  Lancaster has, for me, also made some surprising calls, ignoring in form players like Jonathan Joseph, Dave Strettle and Danny Cipriani and opting for players he feels more comfortable with, like Brad Barritt, Johnny May and Stephen Myler.  The former two are starting on Saturday.  It is by no means a poor side compared to the dark years of 2005 – 2009, with the likes of Robshaw, Brown, Hartley and Lawes all top class performers, but the amount of injuries does give the team a mix and match feel which may leave it short of fluidity and confidence.  But some of the players stepping in can really make a difference – Kyle Eastmond may be up against a bloke twice his size but he is on fire at the moment, whilst Bath teammates Semesa Rokodoguni (making his debut) and Dave Attwood also have genuine claims for a starting spot.

But if England look a little bit shaky, the same cannot be said for the All Blacks.  With the exception (a notable one, admittedly) of Dan Carter's absence, you could probably name that All Blacks side player for player a week before it was announced.  It is that continuity which breeds familiarity and quality.  And when somebody 'new' does step in, such as Sonny Bill Williams – returning from league – at inside centre, he's surrounded by a wealth of experience which means he is given an armchair ride (plus he's not really new, anyway).  The American commentators split a lot of opinion on the USA v New Zealand game – I thought they were brilliant (who wouldn't want their sidestep referred to as a 'cutback'?!) – but they did stumble on one very good point.  When you play together as much as these guys do, you can work off-the-cuff better than any thrown-together side can, no matter how much training they do.

England will be tough – they always will be.  But the rugby gods have, in my view, transpired to take away the opportunity of a true barometer of England's progress in the form of a terrible injury list.  This may be their fourth game on the bounce against the Kiwis, but it is also their last crack at the Champs before the World Cup – to get a win would be a very good thing indeed.  And you can't get too much of that.


England Team News

Bath wing Semesa Rokoduguni will make his England debut against New Zealand at Twickenham on Saturday.  Fijian Rokoduguni, 27, a lance corporal in the Royal Scots Dragoon Guards, qualifies for England on residency and makes a start with Johnny May on the other flank, with Marland Yarde – who caused the Kiwis plenty of problems in the summer – sent back to Harlequins to recover from a niggle.  Uncapped duo George Kruis and Anthony Watson are on the bench, whilst Saracens' Brad Barritt and Bath's Kyle Eastmond form yet another new centre partnership.  Owen Farrell and Danny Care take over at half back in the place of Freddie Burns and Ben Youngs, who started the last Test against the World Champions.

Key Player

Semesa Rokoduguni.  Making your England debut at a packed out Twickenham is daunting.  Making it against the All Blacks, the best side in the world and the current world champions, is bloody mind-blowing.  It’s the ultimate sink or swim environment – and the sharks here have especially sharp teeth.  Rokodugini will be mercilessly tested aerially and pressured by the likes of Keiran Read in the wide channels, checking how easily the Bath man will step in to create space outside of him.  But Rokodoguni – or ‘The Rok’, as I am going to start calling him (it’s easier) – can’t think of all the pressure, he has to see the opportunity that’s been presented.  He has that wonderful balanced running style of the great south-sea-islander wings, and in full flow he will present a problem to the men in black.  This is his chance – and I expect the Rok to be cooking something special on Saturday.

 
New Zealand Team News

Fly-half Dan Carter has missed out on a place in the New Zealand team to face England on Saturday but cross-code star Sonny Bill Williams will start at inside centre for the All Blacks.  Carter, the all-time leading Test points scorer, returned from a broken leg to play 30 minutes in the win over the US Eagles on Saturday.   Aaron Cruden is the All Blacks' 10, with Beauden Barrett on the bench.  Fly-half Cruden, full-back Israel Dagg, inside centre Williams and number eight Kieran Read are the only players to retain their place in the starting XV from the win over the United States at a sold-out Soldier Field in Chicago.  

Key Player

Julian Savea.  The Lomu comparisons have been banded about this week, and it’s not difficult to see why.  Perhaps Savea isn’t that much of an anomaly (read: freak of nature) as Jonah was back in the day (after all, 6 foot 5 and 18 stone wingers are par for the course these days) but there is no doubting that he is just as effective – if not more effective – on the field.  29 tries in 30 Tests for the All Blacks, 8 in 4 against England.  Those are, on the face of them, unbelievable figures but, when you consider how Savea combines sheer speed, brutal power and wonderful balance with intelligent tracking play and a poacher’s instinct, those figures shouldn’t be all that surprising.  England still don’t know how to handle him, and New Zealand will be very aware of that – expect Savea to be very busy on Saturday.


Key Battle

Kyle Eastmond v Sonny Bill Williams.  Talk about your David v Goliath.  Eastmond has been in scintillating form for Bath and has shown no ill effects of that difficult last test where he – along was the rest of the backline – was all at sea for much of the game.  But taking on big SBW will be a new challenge for him, and an intriguing one at that.  Both he and Sonny Bill come from league backgrounds, but Williams has only just returned after a couple of years back in NRL.  Although the All Black will look to exploit the colossal size differential (Eastmond gives away a whopping 9 inches in height and 25kg in weight to his opposite number), the big man still tends to tackle high and can be caught out positionally – if Eastmond can isolate him, he can cause plenty of headaches himself.


Prediction

Even against poor England sides (and this is not one), the All Blacks have struggled to really give the men in white the spanking they often deserve at Twickenham – so I don’t think we’ll see a landslide.  But I do think we’ll see a comfortable All Blacks win – perhaps the sort where they take their foot off the accelerator late on to give the scoreline a misleading degree of closeness.  Looking down this New Zealand side though, it has over 1000 caps and they don’t seem to be suffering from any injury worries, Dan Carter aside.  These guys are at their best.  England, though, have been forced to mix and match with no fewer than 7 Lions Test Players out injured (who would all be part of the squad) and a further 2/3 first choice internationals unavailable.  Continuity breeds confidence – and the All Blacks have plenty of that.  England do not.  All Blacks by 10.


And in the other internationals?

Wales v Australia:  I don't know what cretin arranged this for the same time as the England v ABs game, but it should be a cracker.  I expect Wales to break their hoodoo (read my full preview at http://www.therugbyblog.com/autumn-internationals-2014-wales-vs-australia-prediction). Wales by 3.

Ireland v South Africa:  The Kiwis may be favourites for the World Cup but the Springboks are looking very, very dangerous.  Ireland look good themselves but have too many injuries in key positions.  South Africa by 6.

Italy v Samoa:  Italy have stalled for me, whilst a good run for Samoa could – in my view – push them into the top 8 teams in the world and genuine World Cup knock-out contenders.  Samoa by 5.

France v Fiji:  A while ago, you'd have put these two on the same page on the 'flair' charts – but under Saint Andre Les Bleus have become turgid and predictable.  I expect them to grind out an uninspiring win.  France by 13.

Scotland v Argentina:  Thankfully, the Murrayfield turf has been replaced so hopefully we should see something other than an 80 minute scrum.  The Pumas are on a high after beating the Wallabies but I expect home advantage to be key here.  Scotland by 2.

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