They say that you can't have
too much of a good thing. Well, that's
nonsense. Playing the All Blacks once is
an honour, a privilege and spectacle.
Playing them four times on the bounce is about as good for your confidence
as standing starkers on an icy winter's day in front of a group of particularly
harsh Victoria's Secret models. But as
England line up to face the mighty New Zealand once again, all memories will be
cast back to that summer series – a series where England were unlucky, brave
and outclassed in three separate games.
What positives can England take from a whitewash?
Well, aside from the last
game, where injuries and fatigue seemed to leave the men in white out on their
feet, England did create a bit of a stir down under. With a severely depleted side in the First
Test, England went within 7 minutes of claiming a famous win against the World
Champions, whilst a stirring comeback saw the visitors come within one point in
round two. They know that the All Blacks
are human – and they know they can beat them at home. But actually doing it, actually pulling the
trigger? That seems as difficult as
ever.
For me, England are not in
great shape for this test. Listen to
this list – Corbisiero, Mako Vunipola, Tom Youngs, Cole, Parling, Launchbury,
Croft, Tuilagi and Yarde. These are all
proven internationals who would expect to be in – or very close to – the match
day squad, but are absent due to injury.
Lancaster has, for me, also made some surprising calls, ignoring in form
players like Jonathan Joseph, Dave Strettle and Danny Cipriani and opting for
players he feels more comfortable with, like Brad Barritt, Johnny May and
Stephen Myler. The former two are
starting on Saturday. It is by no means
a poor side compared to the dark years of 2005 – 2009, with the likes of
Robshaw, Brown, Hartley and Lawes all top class performers, but the amount of
injuries does give the team a mix and match feel which may leave it short of
fluidity and confidence. But some of the
players stepping in can really make a difference – Kyle Eastmond may be up
against a bloke twice his size but he is on fire at the moment, whilst Bath
teammates Semesa Rokodoguni (making his debut) and Dave Attwood also have
genuine claims for a starting spot.
But if England look a little
bit shaky, the same cannot be said for the All Blacks. With the exception (a notable one,
admittedly) of Dan Carter's absence, you could probably name that All Blacks
side player for player a week before it was announced. It is that continuity which breeds
familiarity and quality. And when
somebody 'new' does step in, such as Sonny Bill Williams – returning from
league – at inside centre, he's surrounded by a wealth of experience which
means he is given an armchair ride (plus he's not really new, anyway). The American commentators split a lot of
opinion on the USA v New Zealand game – I thought they were brilliant (who
wouldn't want their sidestep referred to as a 'cutback'?!) – but they did
stumble on one very good point. When you
play together as much as these guys do, you can work off-the-cuff better than
any thrown-together side can, no matter how much training they do.
England will be tough – they always
will be. But the rugby gods have, in my
view, transpired to take away the opportunity of a true barometer of England's
progress in the form of a terrible injury list.
This may be their fourth game on the bounce against the Kiwis, but it is
also their last crack at the Champs before the World Cup – to get a win would
be a very good thing indeed. And you
can't get too much of that.
England Team News
Bath wing Semesa Rokoduguni
will make his England debut against New Zealand at Twickenham on Saturday. Fijian Rokoduguni, 27, a lance corporal in the
Royal Scots Dragoon Guards, qualifies for England on residency and makes a
start with Johnny May on the other flank, with Marland Yarde – who caused the
Kiwis plenty of problems in the summer – sent back to Harlequins to recover
from a niggle. Uncapped duo George Kruis
and Anthony Watson are on the bench, whilst Saracens' Brad Barritt and Bath's
Kyle Eastmond form yet another new centre partnership. Owen Farrell and Danny Care take over at half
back in the place of Freddie Burns and Ben Youngs, who started the last Test
against the World Champions.
Key Player
Semesa Rokoduguni. Making your England debut at a packed out
Twickenham is daunting. Making it
against the All Blacks, the best side in the world and the current world
champions, is bloody mind-blowing. It’s
the ultimate sink or swim environment – and the sharks here have especially
sharp teeth. Rokodugini will be
mercilessly tested aerially and pressured by the likes of Keiran Read in the
wide channels, checking how easily the Bath man will step in to create space
outside of him. But Rokodoguni – or ‘The
Rok’, as I am going to start calling him (it’s easier) – can’t think of all the
pressure, he has to see the opportunity that’s been presented. He has that wonderful balanced running style
of the great south-sea-islander wings, and in full flow he will present a
problem to the men in black. This is his
chance – and I expect the Rok to be cooking something special on Saturday.
New Zealand Team News
Fly-half Dan Carter has
missed out on a place in the New Zealand team to face England on Saturday but
cross-code star Sonny Bill Williams will start at inside centre for the All
Blacks. Carter, the all-time leading
Test points scorer, returned from a broken leg to play 30 minutes in the win
over the US Eagles on Saturday. Aaron Cruden is the All Blacks' 10, with
Beauden Barrett on the bench. Fly-half
Cruden, full-back Israel Dagg, inside centre Williams and number eight Kieran
Read are the only players to retain their place in the starting XV from the win
over the United States at a sold-out Soldier Field in Chicago.
Key Player
Julian Savea. The Lomu comparisons have been banded about
this week, and it’s not difficult to see why.
Perhaps Savea isn’t that much of an anomaly (read: freak of nature) as Jonah
was back in the day (after all, 6 foot 5 and 18 stone wingers are par for the
course these days) but there is no doubting that he is just as effective – if
not more effective – on the field. 29
tries in 30 Tests for the All Blacks, 8 in 4 against England. Those are, on the face of them, unbelievable
figures but, when you consider how Savea combines sheer speed, brutal power and
wonderful balance with intelligent tracking play and a poacher’s instinct,
those figures shouldn’t be all that surprising.
England still don’t know how to handle him, and New Zealand will be very
aware of that – expect Savea to be very busy on Saturday.
Key Battle
Kyle Eastmond v Sonny Bill
Williams. Talk about your David v
Goliath. Eastmond has been in
scintillating form for Bath and has shown no ill effects of that difficult last
test where he – along was the rest of the backline – was all at sea for much of
the game. But taking on big SBW will be
a new challenge for him, and an intriguing one at that. Both he and Sonny Bill come from league backgrounds,
but Williams has only just returned after a couple of years back in NRL. Although the All Black will look to exploit
the colossal size differential (Eastmond gives away a whopping 9 inches in
height and 25kg in weight to his opposite number), the big man still tends to
tackle high and can be caught out positionally – if Eastmond can isolate him,
he can cause plenty of headaches himself.
Prediction
Even against poor England
sides (and this is not one), the All Blacks have struggled to really give the
men in white the spanking they often deserve at Twickenham – so I don’t think
we’ll see a landslide. But I do think
we’ll see a comfortable All Blacks win – perhaps the sort where they take their
foot off the accelerator late on to give the scoreline a misleading degree of
closeness. Looking down this New Zealand
side though, it has over 1000 caps and they don’t seem to be suffering from any
injury worries, Dan Carter aside. These
guys are at their best. England, though,
have been forced to mix and match with no fewer than 7 Lions Test Players out
injured (who would all be part of the squad) and a further 2/3 first choice
internationals unavailable. Continuity
breeds confidence – and the All Blacks have plenty of that. England do not. All Blacks by 10.
And in the other internationals?
Wales v Australia:
I don't know what cretin
arranged this for the same time as the England v ABs game, but it should be a
cracker. I expect Wales to break their
hoodoo (read my full preview at http://www.therugbyblog.com/autumn-internationals-2014-wales-vs-australia-prediction).
Wales by 3.
Ireland v South Africa: The
Kiwis may be favourites for the World Cup but the Springboks are looking very,
very dangerous. Ireland look good
themselves but have too many injuries in key positions. South
Africa by 6.
Italy v Samoa: Italy have stalled for me, whilst a good run for Samoa
could – in my view – push them into the top 8 teams in the world and genuine
World Cup knock-out contenders. Samoa by 5.
France v Fiji: A while ago, you'd have put these two on the same page
on the 'flair' charts – but under Saint Andre Les Bleus have become turgid and
predictable. I expect them to grind out
an uninspiring win. France by 13.
Scotland v Argentina:
Thankfully, the Murrayfield
turf has been replaced so hopefully we should see something other than an 80
minute scrum. The Pumas are on a high
after beating the Wallabies but I expect home advantage to be key here. Scotland
by 2.
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