Premiership Preview - Newcastle Falcons v London Welsh

There’s the last chance saloon, and then there’s the London Welsh predicament.  The newly-promoted Exiles in fact entered this saloon about 2 months ago and are currently on last orders having drunk most of the bar dry.  Of course, the majority of pundits expected Welsh to have a ‘drinking partner’ throughout their time in the Premiership, but the Falcons are looking fairly comfortable; despite ‘languishing’ in 10^th place, they are 15 points clear of their rivals, who have just one solitary point to their name.  But whereas last season the men from the north were scratching around playing some pretty uninspiring rugby, this season Deano has his troops playing some enterprising and exciting stuff –with the likes of Catterick, Sinoti Sinoti and Soccino all adding a bit of magic dust to what was a pretty bland side last season.

Welsh, on the other hand, were always going to be struggling.  The ludicrous RFU Championship system and the under-funding of newly promoted sides means that those arriving in the Premiership have two choices – stick with what they’ve got, or panic buy with limited funds.  Welsh went for the latter, and it has backfired big time; despite having the likes of Justin Burnell and Ollie Smith – both talented coaches – on their staff and some genuine quality and experience in the backline, the Exiles just haven’t clicked and you can sense that the morale within the side just isn’t there.

In truth, the Exiles had to win against the Falcons when they played them at home a couple of months ago – they didn’t, and that was the death knell, realistically speaking.  But confirmation (to all intents and purposes), to the dismay of Welsh fans, could just be 24 hours away.  Last orders.

Newcastle Falcons Team News

Dean Richards has made five changes for Sunday’s game - Simon Hammersley, Juan Pablo Socino, Rob Vickers, Ally Hogg and leading try scorer Sinoti Sinoti all return.

Starting Line-up:  Hammersley; Sinoti, Powell, Socino, Tait; Catterick, Blair; Vickers, Lawson, Brookes; Green, Furno; Wilson, Welch (capt), Hogg.

Subs:  McGuigan, Fry, Orlandi, Thompson, Mayhew, Tipuna, Harris, Tuilagi.

Key Player

Kieran Brookes.  Kieran ‘The Fridge’ Brookes has enjoyed a burgeoning reputation of late – and rightly so.  He’s recovered from an injury-plagued couple of seasons at Welford Road and is finally fulfilling the potential that stood him out as a youngster, and as added a few more strings to his bow.  His carrying has always been an asset (largely because he looks like an Oceana doorman...but with pace) and his aggression with the ball in hand is a real weapon for the Falcons, but it’s his scrummaging that has really come on in leaps and bounds, in both Newcastle and England shirts.  He will be aware that there is an opportunity to attack the Welsh set piece and can give his side a platform for victory is he does what is expected of him.

London Welsh Team News

London Welsh captain Tom May, who will retire at the end of the season, returns to the starting XV at outside centre against his former club.  Elliot Kear will be on the wing, while in the forwards, Koree Britton comes in at hooker for the injured Nathan Vella.

Starting Line-up:  Robinson; Kear, May (capt), Jewell, Scott; Weepu, Rowley; Trevett, Britton, Vea; West, Down; Browne, Kirwan, Fonua.

Subs: Morris, Reeves, Cooper, Thorpe, Pienaar, Lewis, Barkley, Stegmann.

Key Player

Opeti Fonua.  Apparently Leicester were interesting in signing him last season, and it’s easy to see why (and wonder why they didn’t).  Fonua is so massive he makes Billy Vunipola look like an (admittedly stocky) child by comparison.  Although the defeats have kept on coming, one of the big positives for Welsh over recent weeks is that they have finally been generating some forward momentum in attack – and it’s no coincidence that it started happening when Fonua arrived on the scene.  He is crucial to the Exiles game plan and needs to get his hands on the ball as much as possible if the visitors are to have any chance whatsoever.

Key Battle

Tom Catterick v Piri Weepu.  Being a fly half at a club battling relegation is a pretty thankless task, but these guys have bags of talent between them.  We all know about Weepu of course, with the World Cup winner and former All Black possessing a staggering away of skills, with wonderfully deft hands and an almost super-human awareness to find space.  All this despite looking like he’s just stumbled straight out of Middle Earth.  But it’s Catterick who’s really caught the eye of late – an ex-Sevens specialist, he has pace to burn, surprising strength and a lethal step to compliment his creativity and midas touch with the boot.  Against Northampton he was superb, but he needs to bring that same level of performance out on Sunday – both 10s are likely to see more of the ball than they’re used to, so it’s important they do as much as possible with it.

Prediction

Before the season started, many had this down as a relegation dogfight – and this would be the key battle.  But, as it stands, this could simply be the hammering of the nail in a London Welsh coffin which already closed and very well sealed.  London Welsh have their individuals, sure, but they consistently fail to stop players on the gainline and, once they go backwards, their scramble defence and re-organisation is not good enough.  The Falcons, meanwhile, only seem a short step away from really clicking – running smart lines and varying their game superbly to keep defences guessing.  This could be the game where they cut loose.  Falcons by 20.