Saturday, 4 April 2015

European Cup Preview - Leinster v Bath



 
The news this week seems to have been filled with headaches.  Whether it’s George North’s bonce yet again taking a pounding after Nathan Hughes stumbled into him with almost comical (if the outcome hadn’t been so serious) clumsiness, or the headache everyone who watched the 7-party ‘bullshitability’ ‘debate’ on Thursday experienced, we’ve all be reaching for the panadol one way or another.  And I can guarantee there will be a few sore heads in Dublin on Sunday too – win or lose, a quarter final away against Leinster is always a good time.

Except that the Leinster fans are 100% expecting to win.  And why shouldn’t they?  They may have spluttered through the pool stages and Matt O’Connor is still struggling to get his side firing on all cylinders, but this is their territory now.  Not just in terms of playing at home, but they know the deal when it comes to European knockout rugby – after all, guys like Healy, Heaslip and O’Brien and all have got their hands on the trophy enough times before.  They know what it takes to win, and from looking at their starting line-up and their form, they have a classic side built to win the big games: a huge, ball-carrying pack, two play makers and a back three who are great under the highball and smart counter-attackers and kickers.  It’s a team designed to bully and squeeze opponents out in the tightest of games. 

The same can’t really be said about Bath.  Yes, they have some big bruisers themselves, such as Dave Attwood and Carl Fearns, but pound for pound it’s hard to say that there’s more explosivity in their ranks – but what there is, is a bucket load of instinct and natural flair.  The three-quarters especially, in Ford, Eastmond and Joseph, are not the biggest but they can run rings around you and create space in the tightest of situations all day.  They may be charged at by the big bullies all day but they won’t be afraid to make a few of the bigger boys look like fools too – and let’s not forget, with an all-international back three, they have just as much firepower as (if not more than) Leinster out wide.  Yes, Leinster have the capacity to win the game up front, as the international side did just over a month ago, but Bath have the capacity to punish any mistakes with ruthless efficiency.

Because here, in the European quarter finals, is where every moment, every mistake counts.  And headaches and hangovers are so much better with a win under your belt.

Leinster Team News

Matt O’Connor has recalled the big guns to his side following international duties with Ireland, with Jamie Heaslip returning at number 8 Heaslip alongside Sean O'Brien.  Cian Healy, Sean Cronin and Mike Ross form a revamped front row while Devin Toner returns to the second row.   Rob Kearney is included at full-back with wing Luke Fitzgerald and scrum-half Issac Boss also included.

Starting Line-up:  Rob Kearney; Fergus McFadden, Ben Te'o, Ian Madigan; Luke Fitzgerald; Jimmy Gopperth, Issac Boss; Cian Healy, Sean Cronin, Mike Ross, Devin Toner, Mike McCarthy, Jordi Murphy, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip (capt).

Subs: Richardt Strauss, Jack McGrath, Marty Moore, Tom Denton, Dominic Ryan, Eoin Reddan, Gordon D'Arcy, Zane Kirchner.

 
Key Player

Ian Madigan.  The Leinster utility back had a bit of a disappointing Six Nations, being overlooked for the 10 role while Johnny Sexton was injured, in favour in Ian Keatley, followed by a couple of less-than-impressive cameos from the bench, where his poor decision making and execution seemed to almost steer an otherwise very tight Irish ship-off course.  But that was in the fly-half role, and at 12 today he has a bit more space in which to operate pick his options and his lines of attack.  Madigan is no doubt a gloriously gifted player, and he will need to make sure he offers a calm presence out wide to give genuine threat and option to the Leinster attack.

 

Bath Team News

Bath welcome back five internationals including England quartet George Ford, Jonathan Joseph, Anthony Watson and Dave Attwood.   Wales prop Paul James is back after recovering from a thumb injury.   Attwood comes into the second row with Ford at fly-half, Joseph is named at centre and Watson takes over at full-back.  Big Sam Burgess finds himself on bench duty again for the big game.

Starting Line-up:  Anthony Watson; Horacio Agulla, Jonathan Joseph, Kyle Eastmond, Matt Banahan; George Ford, Micky Young; Paul James, Rob Webber, Kane Palma-Newport, Stuart Hooper (capt), Dave Attwood, Carl Fearns, Francois Louw, Leroy Houston.

Subs: Ross Batty, Nick Auterac, Max Lahiff, Matt Garvey, Alafoti Faosiliva, Peter Stringer, Sam Burgess, Tom Homer.

 
Key Player

Jonathan Joseph.  The outside centre was probably England’s player of the tournament and, whilst he may not have claimed the same gong for the Six Nations as a whole, he was certainly the revelation of last two months.  With lightening footwork and acceleration and a telepathic understanding with George Ford, Joseph quickly became the most dangerous attacking weapon in Europe, but he will really need to dig deep into his box of tricks if he is to get by a Leinster defence that is renowned for being more suffocating than an overcrowded sauna for obese people.  He will need to hold his depth to give himself time against Ben Te’o, who likes to rush up in defence but can be seen as a potential weak link, too.

 

Key Battle

Sean O’Brien.  After an injury plagued Six Nations, O’Brien announced himself back on the international stage with a serious bang, battering his way forward for two tries against Italy on the final weekend.  He’s fresh, on form and looks to have added to his carrying game with more nous over the ball – and he’s coming up against one of the world’s best in Francois Louw.  The South African is more of a ‘classic’ openside than O’Brien, but that doesn’t mean to say that the Bath man shirks any of the physical stuff at all – he will relish playing against O’Brien’s bruising, direct style.  It’s probably fair to say that Leinster have more carrying power in their pack, and so Louw’s work over the ball will be absolutely crucial to stifling any momentum for the hosts.  How O’Brien deals with him will not just be fascinating, but will probably be the key to the match.

 

Prediction

There’s no doubt that this, of all the quarter finals, has the potential to be the easiest on the eye.  Leinster have a phenomenal amount of power in that pack and an intelligent backline, but Bath have some magic dust sprinkled over that three quarter line and it is that that lends a sense of unpredictability to the fixture (getting my excuses in early).  For me, the hosts are the favourites because of their physicality and experience, but if Bath can hold a solid set piece and Ford can show the same maturity as Jimmy Gopperth, then there is no way of knowing what could happen.  I’m going to go for the safe call of a Leinster win, but don’t be too surprised if there’s an upset.  Leinster by 6.

 

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