The news this
week seems to have been filled with headaches.
Whether it’s George North’s bonce yet again taking a pounding after
Nathan Hughes stumbled into him with almost comical (if the outcome hadn’t been
so serious) clumsiness, or the headache everyone who watched the 7-party ‘bullshitability’
‘debate’ on Thursday experienced, we’ve all be reaching for the panadol one way
or another. And I can guarantee there
will be a few sore heads in Dublin on Sunday too – win or lose, a quarter final
away against Leinster is always a good time.
Except that the
Leinster fans are 100% expecting to win.
And why shouldn’t they? They may
have spluttered through the pool stages and Matt O’Connor is still struggling
to get his side firing on all cylinders, but this is their territory now. Not just in terms of playing at home, but
they know the deal when it comes to European knockout rugby – after all, guys
like Healy, Heaslip and O’Brien and all have got their hands on the trophy
enough times before. They know what it
takes to win, and from looking at their starting line-up and their form, they
have a classic side built to win the big games: a huge, ball-carrying pack, two
play makers and a back three who are great under the highball and smart
counter-attackers and kickers. It’s a
team designed to bully and squeeze opponents out in the tightest of games.
The same can’t
really be said about Bath. Yes, they
have some big bruisers themselves, such as Dave Attwood and Carl Fearns, but
pound for pound it’s hard to say that there’s more explosivity in their ranks –
but what there is, is a bucket load of instinct and natural flair. The three-quarters especially, in Ford, Eastmond
and Joseph, are not the biggest but they can run rings around you and create
space in the tightest of situations all day.
They may be charged at by the big bullies all day but they won’t be
afraid to make a few of the bigger boys look like fools too – and let’s not
forget, with an all-international back three, they have just as much firepower as
(if not more than) Leinster out wide. Yes,
Leinster have the capacity to win the game up front, as the international side
did just over a month ago, but Bath have the capacity to punish any mistakes
with ruthless efficiency.
Because here, in
the European quarter finals, is where every moment, every mistake counts. And headaches and hangovers are so much
better with a win under your belt.
Leinster Team News
Matt O’Connor has
recalled the big guns to his side following international duties with Ireland,
with Jamie Heaslip returning at number 8 Heaslip alongside Sean O'Brien. Cian Healy, Sean Cronin and Mike Ross form a
revamped front row while Devin Toner returns to the second row. Rob Kearney is included at full-back with
wing Luke Fitzgerald and scrum-half Issac Boss also included.
Starting Line-up:
Rob Kearney;
Fergus McFadden, Ben Te'o, Ian Madigan; Luke Fitzgerald; Jimmy Gopperth, Issac
Boss; Cian Healy, Sean Cronin, Mike Ross, Devin Toner, Mike McCarthy, Jordi
Murphy, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip (capt).
Subs: Richardt Strauss, Jack McGrath, Marty Moore, Tom Denton, Dominic Ryan,
Eoin Reddan, Gordon D'Arcy, Zane Kirchner.
Ian Madigan. The Leinster utility back had a bit of a
disappointing Six Nations, being overlooked for the 10 role while Johnny Sexton
was injured, in favour in Ian Keatley, followed by a couple of
less-than-impressive cameos from the bench, where his poor decision making and
execution seemed to almost steer an otherwise very tight Irish ship-off
course. But that was in the fly-half
role, and at 12 today he has a bit more space in which to operate pick his
options and his lines of attack. Madigan
is no doubt a gloriously gifted player, and he will need to make sure he offers
a calm presence out wide to give genuine threat and option to the Leinster
attack.
Bath Team News
Bath welcome back
five internationals including England quartet George Ford, Jonathan Joseph,
Anthony Watson and Dave Attwood. Wales
prop Paul James is back after recovering from a thumb injury. Attwood comes into the second row with Ford
at fly-half, Joseph is named at centre and Watson takes over at full-back. Big Sam Burgess finds himself on bench duty
again for the big game.
Starting Line-up:
Anthony Watson;
Horacio Agulla, Jonathan Joseph, Kyle Eastmond, Matt Banahan; George Ford,
Micky Young; Paul James, Rob Webber, Kane Palma-Newport, Stuart Hooper (capt),
Dave Attwood, Carl Fearns, Francois Louw, Leroy Houston.
Subs: Ross Batty, Nick Auterac, Max Lahiff, Matt Garvey, Alafoti Faosiliva,
Peter Stringer, Sam Burgess, Tom Homer.
Jonathan
Joseph. The outside centre was probably
England’s player of the tournament and, whilst he may not have claimed the same
gong for the Six Nations as a whole, he was certainly the revelation of last
two months. With lightening footwork and
acceleration and a telepathic understanding with George Ford, Joseph quickly
became the most dangerous attacking weapon in Europe, but he will really need
to dig deep into his box of tricks if he is to get by a Leinster defence that
is renowned for being more suffocating than an overcrowded sauna for obese
people. He will need to hold his depth
to give himself time against Ben Te’o, who likes to rush up in defence but can
be seen as a potential weak link, too.
Key Battle
Sean O’Brien. After an injury plagued Six Nations, O’Brien
announced himself back on the international stage with a serious bang,
battering his way forward for two tries against Italy on the final
weekend. He’s fresh, on form and looks
to have added to his carrying game with more nous over the ball – and he’s
coming up against one of the world’s best in Francois Louw. The South African is more of a ‘classic’
openside than O’Brien, but that doesn’t mean to say that the Bath man shirks
any of the physical stuff at all – he will relish playing against O’Brien’s
bruising, direct style. It’s probably
fair to say that Leinster have more carrying power in their pack, and so Louw’s
work over the ball will be absolutely crucial to stifling any momentum for the
hosts. How O’Brien deals with him will
not just be fascinating, but will probably be the key to the match.
Prediction
There’s no doubt
that this, of all the quarter finals, has the potential to be the easiest on
the eye. Leinster have a phenomenal
amount of power in that pack and an intelligent backline, but Bath have some
magic dust sprinkled over that three quarter line and it is that that lends a
sense of unpredictability to the fixture (getting my excuses in early). For me, the hosts are the favourites because
of their physicality and experience, but if Bath can hold a solid set piece and
Ford can show the same maturity as Jimmy Gopperth, then there is no way of
knowing what could happen. I’m going to
go for the safe call of a Leinster win, but don’t be too surprised if there’s
an upset. Leinster by 6.
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