World Cup Final 2015 - Preview - New Zealand v Australia

And then there were two.

We’ve seen it all in this World Cup – giant-killings, party-poopings, redemptions and jaw-dropping excellence – but we’ve gradually whittled it down to just two sides. Or, rather, the tournament has been whittled down from a World Cup, to a Rugby Championship… to a Bledisloe Cup. One thing that the protagonists and fans of one of the sport’s greatest rivalries definitely don’t need is extra motivation for this one – but they’ve got it. In the form of being crowned World Champions. No pressure there, then.

Experience, class and a ‘been-there, won-that’ mentality ooze through the team, with only a couple of names relatively new on the regular selection front – in the shape of prop Joe Moody (called up only a couple of weeks ago) and the electric Nehe Milner-Skudder.

You can attempt to analyse the All Blacks all you want but all it boils down to is that every man who pulls on a silver-fern is a very good, very smart rugby player. The set-piece is solid, the basic skill-set is excellent, the balance of the side is spot on. Want to play an open game against them? Good luck with that. Fancy an arm-wrestle? Bring it on. The current New Zealand side has been the best team in the World for at least 6 years because they have an all-court ability to meet different kind of challenges and inevitably dictate the way that the game pans out. The only time we have ever really seen the All Blacks look wobbly is when sides force the game themselves, and do so accurately – and there are very few that have the nerve or the execution to do it well – but it can be done and, as so often is the case, the breakdown is the focus. Last week the Springboks had the upper hand in the first half because they won the gainline battle with their back row and because Francois Louw was an absolute menace over the ball whenever the men in black tried to put some phases together – in the Rugby Championship, they were turned over by the Wallabies because they suddenly couldn’t control their own ball in the face of the Hooper-Pocock axis. Inevitably – as they showed last week – they adapt, change the way they play (for example, by kicking more), and recover. But they are not invincible.

Although they are pretty bloody close, and you can bet that they won’t leave anything out there on the pitch on Saturday. This is so much more than just a World Cup Final (if you can have ‘just’ a World Cup Final) for the Kiwis. This is the chance to write history – to become the first side ever to retain the title. But, even more importantly, their legacy is on the line. Probably the best side to ever play rugby will see five of its icons – McCaw, Carter, Nonu, Smith, Mealamu – retire after Saturday evening and there can be little argument that this will be the end of an era. How the sun sets and what legacy is left behind – that’s what the All Blacks are fighting for.

As for the Wallabies, their chances of causing an upset and winning their first World Cup for 16 years will be hinging on the performances of two men – David Pocock and Bernard Foley. I write a bit more about Pocock below, but the best the All Blacks can hope for with him is to keep him anonymous – the man who has the capacity to implode every now and again is the gifted fly-half. I should specify that I am one of the Waratah playmaker’s biggest fans and his breakthrough in 2014 was superb, but this year he has – in parts – looked a wee bit shaky. The New Zealanders will only have to look back to the first half of their loss against the men in gold earlier this year to know that they can shut down a dangerous Wallaby backline at source – Foley (not helped by the erratic Phipps, admittedly) was all over the place: dropping passes, scuffing kicks, and all because the wall of black was pressing at an alarming speed. Make no mistake, he will be targeted. But the second half of that game showed the other side to Foley…’the Iceman’. The man who knocks over monumentally high-pressure kicks on a regular basis (for the Super XV title in 2014, to knock-out Scotland just a fortnight ago) came out and bossed the game – helped by his pack gaining the upper hand, he shook off the press by the All Black defence by varying his play and executing superbly, with fantastic vision. If the Iceman is the Foley we see on Saturday, then Chieka’s boys will fancy their chances.

Their display against the Pumas will have given Hansen food for thought – their defence (especially on the goal-line) has been mostly exceptional, but there were points when they were pierced far too easily around the fringes by runners attacking inside the 10 channel. If Cordero can scoot through, then so can Milner-Skudder and, with less subtlety, Julian ‘the Bus’ Savea. But the Kiwi boss will also have noted how clinical this Australia side have become, biding their time patiently and using the hands of Giteau and Foley to probe the wider channels before exploiting the mismatches and overlaps…the Wallabies have come a long way in 12 months.

And that makes me think that Australia will want this just as much as the legendary All Blacks. Theirs is a story of redemption – one year ago, the Australians were the laughing stock of international rugby, a walking catastrophe of PR disasters and on-field mediocrity. Now, they look like the real deal. Their disposal of England in the group stages will go down as one of the great displays in this World Cup and you get a sense, in stark contrast to the team they face on Saturday, that this is a team which is at the beginning of their journey. This is their opportunity to complete the resurrection of Australian rugby.

Buckle up, brace yourself, pack a spare pair of underpants – because this will go down to the wire.




New Zealand Team News

Steve Hansen has made my job a lot more difficult because, instead of waffling on for two paragraphs about mundane team changes and selection issues, I’m left to ponder the deeper tactical aspects of the All Blacks’ strategy after he named an unchanged squad from the one that defeated South Africa in the semi-final. The fact that they got through 80 minutes against the Springboks without getting anybody crocked deserves some sort of award in itself.

Starting Line-up: Ben Smith; Nehe Milner-Skudder, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea; Dan Carter, Aaron Smith; Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw (captain), Kieran Read.

Substitutes: Keven Mealamu, Ben Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Victor Vito, Sam Cane, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams.

Key Player

Richie McCaw. Well, how unoriginal of me. But come on, one last chance to see the old-master – the Yoda of the breakdown – in action? Sign me up. His battle with Pocock promises to be absolutely epic and you can expect him to reel out every trick in the book to keep his opposite numbers at bay – if you have my drinking game to hand, it could get messy. McCaw will know that his role on Saturday will be predominantly protective – if he can neutralise the Aussie stealers – the All Blacks have more than enough to build the phases and score some tries. By the same token, enjoy watching the majestic Carter, Nonu, Smith axis in full flow for one last time.


Australia Team News

Michael Chieka, well on the way to earning the deserved nickname of ‘Magic Mike’ (although one hopes he keeps his clothes on) has made just one change to the side which disposed of the Pumas in their semi-final, dropping most-capped prop James Slipper to the bench after his struggles against the Argentina pack, and re-instating the fit-again and mightily impressive young Scott Sio. I don’t think that Sio’s return can be understated in terms of its importance – under the guidance of Mario Ledesma, the Aussies have moulded a prop that finally offers set-piece power and stability to match their talents in the loose. And, to be fair, Kepu’s improvements have been staggering too, so you just wonder if they may be fancying themselves in the scrum against the World Champions – the Kiwis are no mugs there, by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s far from their strongest suit.

Starting Line-up: Israel Folau; Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tevita Kuridrani, Matt Giteau, Drew Mitchell; Bernard Foley, Will Genia; Scott Sio, Stephen Moore (captain), Sekope Kepu, Kane Douglas, Rob Simmons, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, David Pocock.

Subs: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Dean Mumm, Ben McCalman, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Kurtley Beale.

Key Player

David Pocock. Strike two for predictability on my part, but I don’t care. Yes, he is part of a great unit with Hooper and the unsung Fardy and, yes, Foley is a key man in his own right, but so much of the hope for the men in gold depends on this guy. I am not exaggerating when I say that he turns the Wallabies from a good team into a great team. He is, without question (sorry All Black fans) the best openside and breakdown operator in the world at the moment, regardless of the number on his back, and if he can break down the New Zealand attack with anything like the regularity he has shown against others, then his side will have the upper hand.


Key Battle

Dan Carter v Bernard Foley. Admit it. There have been times - over the last three years - when you might perhaps have wondered whether Carter, after all his sabbaticals and injuries, had still got 'it'. This World Cup showed how spectacularly misplaced any doubts have been - his control is still as sublime as ever, his timing right on point, and he still has a few tricks up his sleeve to break even the meanest defences. He will go down as the greatest fly-half in the history of the international game - and that is what Foley must try and emulate...especially the 'control' element. Carter has performed on the biggest stage for well over a decade now but, as above, Foley still has his wobbles - for Australia to win, he simply must keep a cool head and make the right calls under the most intense pressure. Just like the man wearing black opposite him.


Prediction

The honour falls to me to predict the World Cup final, which means – when I get it spectacularly wrong – the embarrassment is all the greater. That said, I have picked up splinters from sitting on the fence when trying to call this one. The All Blacks have the experience, but I think the Wallabies are one of the few sides with the weapons to rattle them. One point that will be critical is that the All Blacks have the stronger bench of the two squads, which could be a decider later on, but I cannot shake from my memory the images of the ‘Pooper’-axis (tee-hee) ruffling the Kiwi feathers just 3 months ago. A lot has changed. I’m not sure if the result will. Wallabies by 2.

PS. Can we all blow a great big raspberry to whoever scheduled the Final please? If you remember 2003 and 2011, watching the biggest game of the last four years wasn’t that tenuous (although forcing Guinness down at that time was a challenge), since they all kicked off at 8am, thanks to the night-time kick-offs down under. This one? It kicks off at 4pm. 3am in Australia, 5am in New Zealand. Probably just so it doesn’t clash with the f*cking X-Factor.

No wonder everybody bloody hates us.

@RuckedOver

Oh, by the way. I suppose I should make a quick call for the 'bronze-final' game that the organisers have ridiculously forced poor South Africa and Argentina to play. The Pumas have been forced into a few changes and so I think that the Springboks will have too much to them - should be entertaining though. Springboks by 10.

The Pres Box - Bridging the North South Divide

 

Apologies first up.  Pres actually sent me this last week after the quarter finals, when perhaps all the emotion was fresher - but a combination of factors such as work, semi-finals and my birthday (I assume all of your presents have been lost in the post) selfishly stopped me from posting.

Nonetheless, it's another 'Food for Thought' piece on the increasingly evident north-south divide.  Take a bite and let him know what you think.

 

It seems an age ago now, but the weekend of 17^th and 18^th October 2015 will live long in my memory as a weekend of pure sporting bliss but rarely has such bliss been overshadowed by painful heartache. You only had to look at Messrs Warburton, Dusatoir, Heaslip and Laidlaw at the final whistle to realise something monumental but crushing had happened in each game; with more emotion flying around than in a teenage girl’s bedroom, you couldn’t help but be right there with them sharing the grief, astonishment and absolute anguish.  Regardless of nationality, there was heartbreak and magic in equal measure – take a moment to think about that weekend, remember the Vermuelen back pass, the Savea bus-lane, the Sanchez magic and, well, Australia winning, just, by the skin of their teeth…Mr Joubert your taxi has arrived!

Now, after reflection, let me add to the Northern v Southern Hemisphere debate on why those south of the equator are seemingly superior at rugby union to those to the north. Let’s not forget that this is not a new topic of conversation - this has been rumbling along for decades, since rugby union became a global sport, and further gathered pace after professionalism. We have only ever seen one team consistently perform and beat the southerners, and that was Clive Woodward’s England team from 2001-2003.  They were the last chariot of hope a single nation team has had such success against Southern Hemisphere teams over a prolonged period. Since then it has been nothing more than flashes in the pan.

My issue is why these teams – the home nations – cannot produce wins/performances consistently. Wales, for example, just cannot beat Australia for love nor money.  They have tried and tried but the elusive win for most of the current Wales crop against the Aussies came in the 2013 British and Irish tour.  How, and why, are the southern hemisphere consistently beating their northern whipping boys, all the way to the ultimate humiliation of not having one team represent northern hemisphere rugby in the semi-finals of the World Cup - taking place, remember, in a northern hemisphere country?!

I am going to try and explain why – of course you’ll disagree with me, or you may have more to add to the list, if so, get your blog out. My three points may raise more questions than answers but isn’t that part of the debate?

1)      Strength in depth: - “Absurd!” says the Englishman, “the RFU has over 1.9m registered players, that’s nearly half the population of New Zealand!” Fair point, and not wrong sir, but – take away the fact that I’m an RFU registered player which pretty much sums up my argument before I’ve started - that’s only 120,000 professional or semi-professional players, which equates to circa 360 Premiership rugby players, of which maybe 60% are English qualified, so say 200 English qualified players playing top level premiership rugby in England. Not a small number, but let’s take the ITM Cup in New Zealand, a good comparison – for this argument please assume I am comparing the Champions Cup to Super Rugby – there are 14 teams in the ITM Premiership and Championship, so say 30 players per squad, that’s 420 players, and – that’s right mate – 95%+ New Zealand qualified. Already that is double the number of players for Steve Hansen to choose from than Lancaster or successor [PLEASE INSERT NAME].

Feel free to pick holes in the numbers but overall it is a sound basis of what I am referring to as a lack of depth to the home nations squads, let alone the lack of depth in certain positions. And I am using the biggest nation as an example. Look at poor Wales and Ireland - Wales decimated by injury before a World Cup ball was even kicked, Ireland losing irreplaceable players before playing the dangerous Argies. For many reasons I respect Scotland for identifying this issue and finding answers - enter stage right Messrs Maitland, Strauss, Nel, and Hardie. All quality players who complement a talented home-grown squad and should arguably be in a 2015 Semi-Final. The key is producing these players consistently and harnessing their abilities. Welsh rugby fans talk about generations, the current team is arguably the strongest Welsh team of the professional era, and it’s scary to think that their 1^st XV average age is 26, and close to average of 50 caps.  But where would you rate Wales’ 2^nd XV? - Not highly, apart from some gems in the mud like Tipuric, Scott Williams or Matthew Morgan.

But we must also understand were the best players even available? What is the England 1^st XV?  Who is on the field making the decisions, who is the tactician, who is the no nonsense leader, who is going to win you a world cup with a single stare at the opposition.  I’m afraid to say there are none today but one day there will be. Somehow, Ireland and Wales have found these sparse individuals who have been given ultimate responsibility to rise to the top and drag everyone with them kicking and screaming.  The responsibility and winning drive nurtured in these guys, by giving them responsibility from early in their career, serves as an example for the rest of the talent pool to follow. Which moves neatly into my second point.

2)      Mentality: “He does not look pleased to be subbed, oh and he’s thrown his water bottle on the ground and stormed down the tunnel…” No that’s not a commentary reference to Wayne Rooney but to Owen Farrell in 2013, livid that he got the substitution when momentum was building against New Zealand - but I back his mentality, he’s a warrior and a competitor, and he is clearly giving his all in the red rose jersey – no matter what you think of him or his ability.

But there is one small aspect to this I will pay attention to, and that is the difference between:

-          I want to win

-          I will win

Owen Farrell wants to win, Dan Carter will win. It’s ingrained from the youngest of ages that they are expected, and will, win a game of rugby. They may be different players to each other but next to Farrell, Carter has a different glint and a steel that makes him a winner.  It’s not arrogance, it’s just a mentality they have learnt and grown with to put them into the best possible situation to win.  This you will find across all rugby grounds in South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

On my travels in South Africa I encountered a school rugby match, Paarl Gym against Grey College in Bloemfontein, two bastions of schoolboy rugby in South Africa.  There is Superbowl-esque hysteria pregame and I have never seen 30 young lads look so cool and calm before a kick off, burdened with the expectation that surrounded them. They looked to their teammates and just accepted they were going to win. When the final whistle blew, Grey victorious, crowd wild with excitement, what did the Grey players do? They didn’t follow after the fat prop to the cans of beers in the changing room, as I would - no, they calmly shook each other’s hands, embraced where appropriate, and said to themselves job done, move on. Paarl boys, well, some of them were still on the ground, shocked, tears on one or two, but all had a genuine feeling of disbelief they had lost – it was if they’d lost a Final.  But it wasn’t a final…..it was a preseason game.

I only refer you to the World Cup weekend in question for evidence on the big stage, where the southern hemisphere knew they were going to win and it took winning mentalities to see them through.  It was if Fourie Du Preez said to himself, “no way I am losing this, oi, Duane, pass us the ball…oh that’ll do…” TRY TIME.  The mentality of knowing they will win a game of rugby can only stem from an imbedded culture…….fanfare music to my third point……..

3)      Culture: “When I went there as a player, what hit me first was the level of conversation about rugby and then the quality of the play and training, the total dedication. When I came back, I was out training all the time and my wife asked me what I was doing. I said: ‘I have found another standard.’” The wise words of Sir Ian McGeechan, a legend of the game, about his experience in New Zealand. It offers a glimpse into the culture and explains the strength in depth of their squads and their winning mentality - it comes from the culture of their countries and their rugby communities. Families live and breathe their children’s pursuit of rugby glory. Young boys and girls are born with a rugby ball in their hand and the Dan Carter Textbook in their schoolbags. This is certainly true of New Zealand and South Africa, where rugby is seen as the number one sport; it is the sport that the two countries can beat other countries on a global basis, whilst Australia produce a winning sporting community and culture whatever the choice - rugby union may not be the number one sport, but you are not allowed to be a bad or failing sportsman in Australia.  You dedicate yourself and be the best. And Argentina, whom I have barely mentioned, have now played against these teams for three years regularly, travelled and spent weeks at a time living in these environments, and they have learnt, adopted, adapted and executed on the pitch.

The rugby these teams play isn’t rocket science, it isn’t anything new, it is simple effective rugby done well. Win secure ball, execute move, and score points. Add a touch of rugby nous by learning the opposition, where are they moving, where are their weaknesses, put them under pressure, kick points, stay in their half.  I couldn’t believe Wales and Scotland kicked the ball back into opposition possession so much during their respective quarters.  Carter is not afraid to work the touchlines because he has utter faith in his pack to pressure the set piece, to force the devastating turnover.  Do the northern hemisphere sides have that faith in their teammates? 

Some of you may think that I am a Southern Hemisphere groupie in disguise, and I don’t blame you! I don’t doubt that the northern hemisphere has individuals who have the belief they will win – look at Stuart Hogg, Mike Brown, Sam Warburton, Jonny Sexton - and I don’t doubt we have talented and world class talent.  What I doubt is combining all three at once, in the way Woodward, Wilkinson and Johnson did, all the way back in 2003. 

I bet we will see another northern hemisphere winner of the World Cup before long, but lessons need to be learned.  Learn, adopt, adapt and execute.

PS: I WILL win that bet

@JamesHG1986

World Cup Semi-Finals - Review

I
n a weekend of contrasting but enthralling rugby, we've whittled it down from a mini-Rugby-Championship to a mini-but-very-f*cking-important Bledisloe Cup game.  Depressing for the rest of the World if you stop to think about it, but also very, very exciting.

New Zealand 20 - 18 South Africa

In sharp contrast to the free-flowing exhibition of total rugby that we saw last week underneath a closed roof in Cardiff, this time the All Blacks engaged in an ugly arm-wrestle underneath the grey, wet autumnal West London skies - but it was no less engaging to watch as the South Africans put up the sternest test for the World Champions yet.  And by stern, I mean physical - bone-jarringly, wince-and-cover-your-delicate-areas physical.

Looking through the line-ups, you could see that the experience factor - and thus the big-game mentality - was weighted heavily in favour of the men in black, especially in the backline where the wily old veterans Carter, Nonu and Smith would face up against the new kids on the block for the Springboks, in the shape of Pollard, De Allende and Kriel.  But, bizarrely, for most of the first half, it was the South Africans who looked to have taken the game by the scruff of the neck., despite an ominous early score from the Kiwis as they attacked the short-side to allow Richie McCaw to float a delightful, borderline-forward pass to Jerome Kaino, who crashed past De Jager to dive over in the corner.  Aside from that, however, it was a case of the Springboks looking generally more threatening then they did last week against the Welsh, with De Allende and Kriel both making good yards, and forcing their illustrious opponents into conceding silly penalties.  With Francois Louw and Duane Vermeulen winning the breakdown battle, even Saint McCaw found himself on the wrong end of the referee's whistle which, coupled with a number of scrum penalties, kept the champs on the back foot for most of the half.  The Springboks were unlucky not to score a five-pointer themselves, but they did force a yellow-card to Kaino after the giant flanker cynically kicked the ball away from an offside position.  With Hendre Pollard deadly off the tee, the Boks held a 12 - 7 lead and a one-man advantage going into the break.

However, as many have found out, All Black generosity tends not to last.  Stingy gits.  Coming out early to lay the law down to one another as the rain began to plummet from the sky, it was clear Steve Hansen had brought out the hair-dryer for his half-time address - and boy did his team respond.  Despite being a man down, the Kiwis took advantage of some wayward kicking from hand by Pollard - which became a theme in the game in the second half - to set up camp in South African territory.  Firstly, Carter nailed a drop-goal to bring his team within two, before good pressure and hands by Ma'a Nonu put substitute Beauden Barrett into the corner for a well-deserved try, superbly converted by Carter.  It got worse for the Boks as Bryan Habana, still searching for a record-breaking try, was retrospectively shown yellow for a deliberate ruck infringement, meaning that South Africa were in that place that nobody wants to be - behind on the scoreboard and on the player count against the All Blacks.  To their credit, the Springboks weathered the storm and a penalty from Pollard and Pat Lambie sandwiched a crucial one for Carter, which was awarded against Eben Etzebeth for brainlessly going off his feet in a ruck.  The reigning champions rode out the final 10 minutes, however, with supreme poise and control to finish the game 18 - 20 up and book themselves a real shot at becoming the first side ever to retain the World Cup.

The All Black machine just keeps on rolling.

Man of the Match:  Dan Carter.  The control he showed - especially in the second half when his side needed to play rugby in the right areas - was absolutely crucial and demonstrated why he is such a complete player.  People often say, in the argument of great fly-halves, that Wilko was the better tactician and points-accumulator whilst Carter is the more natural attacker, but the drop-goal and crucial touchline conversion would have had even Jonny feeling pretty chuffed with himself.  Francois Louw also deserves a mention for an epic display in a losing cause.


Argentina 15 - 29 Australia

There is always a danger, in any sport - and in particular in a World Cup - of getting a bit carried away.  Perhaps 'believing your own hype' may be a bit strong, but certainly we've seen it a fair bit this tournament - for example, England, upon hearing that they may have one of the most dangerous back three in the tournament following the warm-up internationals, decided to lob the ball wide at every opportunity against Fiji and consequently gave their wingers a bit of a battering.  And Argentina, after tearing the Irish a new one last weekend with a scintillating display of fast, ambitious and clinical rugby, may have fallen into the same trap against the Wallabies on Sunday.

Straight from the off, it became clear that they were going to try and take the game to the Australians - admirable stuff, but it has to be done in the right places in knock-out rugby.  A highly telegraphed inside-ball 30 metres out offers few benefits to the attacking side, but Rob Simmons certainly got the best deal as he snaffled the pass and galloped over for a try inside 80 seconds.  Nicholas Sanchez got his side on the board with 3 points after a sharp break by Marcelo Bosch, but otherwise it was looking a bit too straightforward for the men in gold, as Adam Ashley-Cooper waltzed in off first phase just five minutes later.  I thought Tuculet could have had him covered, but the full back seemed to give up bizarrely early.  Unlike last week, Bernard Foley had his kicking boots on, too, and nailed the conversion from out wide to give the favourites a commanding 14 - 3 lead.

It was quickly becoming apparent that the major difference this week was that the Wallaby defence and breakdown was not as submissive as a particularly soppy Labrador, as the Irish were last week, and consequently the Pumas were struggling to get any quick, front-foot ball - especially with David Pocock causing customary mayhem at every ruck.  Luckily for the Pumas, the scrum was looking in a particularly dominant mood and was giving Argentina a foot-hold, allowing Sanchez to claw back three points, but the rest of the half was dominated by bad news.  A yellow-card for Lavinini for a no-arms tackle of Folau, the withdrawal of key men Creevy and Imhoff due to injury, and Ashley-Cooper's second try - set up by a gorgeous wide pass by Giteau - left the Argentineans hanging on at the break, despite another Sanchez penalty to bring the score 9 - 19.

10 points didn't seem a bad gap, in all honesty, after they'd been outscored by three tries to zip, and to their credit the Pumas came out with real discipline and belief in the second half.  With the Wallaby set-piece creaking and the Argentineans starting to works some phases, Sanchez added two penalties to one from Foley to bring the South Americans within one score going into the final 10 minutes.  They couldn't possibly come back - could they?  The answer turned out to be no - after being bumped back time and again due to a combination of their own handling mistakes and superb work from the Aussie loose forwards, Drew Mitchell decided to go beserk and beat half the Argentina team on a mazy run to set up a hat-trick score for Ashley-Cooper.  There was a suspicion that the final, loose pass went forward, but it would have been harsh on Mitchell after such an incredible break.  It put the Argentina dream to bed once more, with the final score at 15 - 29.

Heartbreak for the Pumas but, considering where they were just over 12 months ago, it's almost the ultimate resurgence for the Wallabies.

Man of the Match:  David Pocock.  Once again, the Brumbies man showed his worth with 4 turnovers and probably a number of penalties which haven't been counted on top of that.  One defensive slip up early on aside, it was a nearly flawless performance by the man with biceps the size of bowling balls.  A special mention to Scott Fardy, who was epic in defence, and Nicholas Sanchez, too.

 

@ruckedover

RuckedOver's World Cup Semi-Final Preview

Well, as my homies say, sh*t's about to get real.

I can't really pull that off, can I?

Anyway, after a stunning set of quarter finals, can the World Cup semi-finals live up to the standard set?


New Zealand v South Africa

Perhaps a fairly predictable semi-final in all honesty, but you wouldn't have said that after the opening weekend when Japan caused the greatest upset of all time against the mighty South Africans.  Unfortunately, for all future opponents, it seems to have had the same effect as flicking an elastic band into the eye of Bruce Banner, and the Springbok machine has been hulking up some impressive momentum ever since.  You won't like them when their angry.

Yes, the South African style that we've come to expect has risen to the prominence once again - a bruising, bristling physicality complimented by some of the sharpest finishers and brains in the game out wide, and at scrum half.  In the pack, Lood De Jager has been a lumpy revelation with his all action approach and enthusiasm to get his hands on the ball, and if there is a more muscular and aggressive back row than Burger, Louw and Vermuelan, I'm yet to see it.  That's not to say that they're without subtlety, of course, as anyone who saw the big Springbok number 8's outrageous offload against Wales can testify, but there's no question that - if the game boils down to an arm wrestle - very few can match the men in green.

The only problem for Heyneke Meyer's men is that they still look clunky in attack; indecisive in how they want to play, despite clearly having a wealth of options at their disposal.  Their backline core unit of Pollard, De Allende and Kriel could develop into one of the best groups in World Rugby, but against Wales they looked less sure of themselves and were pressured into mistakes - or at least funneled back into traffic - leaving the arch-finisher, Bryan Habana, with precious little to work with.  Experience breathes confidence and, against the most experienced fly-half-and-centres combination in the World, they need get an old head on their young shoulders, and quickly.

Of course, experience isn't just something that crops up in the centres for the All Blacks, it permeates the entire team - names like Whitelock, Kaino, McCaw and Read all have more experience than most international packs have in their entirety.  Even some of their younger talent, such as Savea or Aaro Smith, still have a shed-load of caps - and tries - and, at this stage of the tournament, experienced heads are what's needed.  Experienced heads and jaw-dropping execution of course, as the World Champs showed last week, giving the French a taste of Madame Guillotine as they sliced Les Bleus apart in a stunning display of support running, crisp passing and game-awareness.  Yes, there were moments of individual brilliance - when Julian 'The Bus' Savea blaster through three tackles in a Lomu-like display of power - but for the most part there wasn't razzmatazz or outrageous flair on the part of any one player.  It was a team so comfortable in what they do, so confident in their ability that all that was needed was a clear head to make the right call time and time again.  And that's exactly what they did.

I don't think anything sums up All Black rugby better than replacement prop Joe Moody, who produced an outrageous offload to set up his team's final try.  Moody was enjoying a beer in the sun just a couple of weeks ago before being called up as injury cover for Tony Woodcock, but such is the class that trickles down through the New Zealand set-up that even the replacement loosehead (who now starts against South Africa) can drop a no-look pass out of the back of his hands.  Frightening and brilliant, all at the same time.

Key Battle

Richie McCaw v Francois Louw.  To be frank, when you get two sides packed full of quality it starts to get a little bit tricky to try and pick just one battle which is key - but given the gulf in experience and class in the midfields, South Africa simply have to rule the breakdown and the battle of the forwards generally if they are to have even a sniff.  Louw was my player of the year in 2013 and there are times when - for Bath - he has dragged his side to victory almost by himself, through his relentless workrate and his phenomenal ability over the ball.  He is, of course, against the best in the business this time around - McCaw's face might now resemble a scrunched up paper bag due to the number of times he's had it clobbered by opposition boots and goodness-knows what else, but his ability to frustrate opponents in the ruck and play the referee is still second to none.  If South Africa are to have a genuine shot, Louw has to set the tone for his side by taking McCaw out of the game.

Prediction

It isn't 'Mission Impossible' for the Springboks, but it is Mission 'Spank me on the bum and call me Reginald if they win', or something more catchy to that effect.  South Africa fans will have to accept that, whilst Pollard, De Allende and Kriel are going to be big names going forward, they simply don't have the intuition and nous of their vastly more experienced counter parts.  For there to be an upset here, the Springbok pack needs to dominate to such an extent that the All Blacks backline is almost taken out of the game - and I don't see that happening.  New Zealand by 9.




Australia v Argentina

Part 2 of the Rugby Champi…I mean, World Cup semi-finals, sees the Wallabies take on the Pumas in what has the potential to be a thriller. With the Aussies having picked up the Celtic injury-bug and the South Americans coming off the game of their lives last week, a place in the final genuinely hangs in the balance – make sure you time your Sunday lunch around this one.

The Aussie chances of success are boosted hugely by the presence of one David Pocock in the number eight shirt. Against Scotland, they struggled to slow their opponent’s attacking ball to the same extent that they had done against England and Wales, and there’s no hiding that the absence of the man with biceps the size of bowling balls was a key factor in that.  Michael Hooper, playing in the 7 shirt as he has done all tournament, didn’t have a bad game by any means, but he couldn’t play his natural game. He was holding back in the defensive line a touch and hanging off the tackle, waiting for the opportunity to get in over the ball – and he’s not bad at that, but he doesn’t have Pocock’s natural instinct to sniff out chances and then the rock-solid technique to take them.

Although the potentially-electric Israel Folau also returns, the main concern for Cheika will be how experienced players could make such basic and costly mistakes in their previous outing. Looking at the three tries they conceded, they were all due to spectacular brain-farts by the men in green and gold. James Slipper, who starts (and presumably this time has been reminded that his brief is not to throw miss-passes on his 22), made the biggest gaff, but they were all, in their own way, pretty incomprehensible and, if the Wallabies switch off to that extent on Sunday, they’ll be badly punished.

The reason for that is that it became clear against Ireland that the South Americans have found their feet playing at a high tempo, wide game that has the capacity to stretch teams to breaking point. Yes, in the first 20 minutes they were helped by an Irish defence as threatening as a bag of bunnies, but I will go as far as to say that the opening and closing quarter of their victory over Ireland was as good as anything the All Blacks showed against the French – and that was as close to ‘total rugby’ as you can get.

The strong and industrious tight five is still there, with Creevy adding a touch of class in the two shirt, but the back row’s work rate is what makes them such a threat. All over the park – around the fringes, in the middle, around the wider channels – the likes of Lobbe, the under-rated Senatore and the aggressive Matera (in particular) were charging about making huge yards with the ball in hand, getting their team surging forward.

It helped, of course, that they have a back three that can now be held up as one of the best units in the tournament. We’ve known about Imhoff for some time – in fact, many at the Millennium Stadium may have some not-so-fond memories of him standing up Leigh Halfpenny – but it was still awesome to see his pace being brought into play at every opportunity, and to to see him work for it, too. Tuculet and Cordero offer something different to complement Imhoff, and it’s Cordero who has really caught the eye. I saw him playing for a pants Argentina side in the Under-20’s two years ago and I was at a loss as to why nobody had signed him up, as he effectively kept his team in games single-handedly. Sometimes, he perhaps tries to make too much happen, but the positive is that he has the skill-set to pull it off and – like Imhoff – the work-rate to go with it.

Key Battle

Matt Giteau v Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe.  The way these two backlines are set up is actually very similar, with two veteran playmakers filling the 12 shirt to take the pressure off their fly-halves and to offer real width in the middle, with strike runners and pace outside of them.  The only difference is that it was only Hernandez who really did his job last weekend - Giteau, who had a solid game, didn't seem to have his usual authority and we hardly saw him at first receiver, even when Foley was clearly starting to wobble.  His midfield distribution was decent, but he needs to take on a similar shift that Hernandez does when it comes to calling the shots if he's going match the variety offered by the Pumas.

Prediction

I’m probably going to get splinters from sitting on the fence for this one. I genuinely think it could come down to David Pocock’s fitness – if the Brumbies man is genuinely match-fit (not Ben Youngs v Australia ‘match-fit’), then I think the Aussies will win at a canter – they’ll ride out the Argentinean storm and have the class to put their opponents away in the second half. Assuming he’s not toally fit, well, it could be anyone’s game. I’ll lean towards the favourites still, but we’ll all need a spare pair of pants for this one. Australia by 2.

@RuckedOver

World Cup Quarter Finals - Reviews

My other half went on a hen weekend on Saturday and Sunday.  She asked if I'd be alright on my own, and I bravely spoke up "Should be fine".  I think I moved about 10 metres in total all weekend, unable to take my eyes off what was probably the best set of quarter final games in World Cup history.  All brilliant spectacles in their own way - each dramatic, each one different, but all so very compelling. 

The net result is we now have to smile and nod when those berks from the South pipe up about how much better their rugby is.

Turns out they might have a point.

South Africa 23 - 19 Wales

The Springboks prevailed in probably the most physical affair of the weekend, as two phenomenally aggressive packs went toe-to-toe for the majority of the 80 minutes.  It was compelling, brutal stuff where running rugby was at a premium but, when there was something to get excited about, it was generally the Welsh getting bums off seats, with one 40 metre surge in particular getting the men in red to within a metre of the line.  As it turned out, this was probably the only match of the weekend which you may have argued turned into a traditional 'northern hemisphere' affair, dominated by the boots of Hendre Pollard and Dan Biggar for large parts as both sides produced bonehead moments at the breakdown.  However, after an even first half it was Wales who had their noses in front by 13 - 12, thanks to the only try of the game, poached once again by Gareth Davies, with Biggar setting his scrum half up with a superb kick and chase.

The second half, though, was a different story as the South Africans gradually wore their opponents down like a school-bully administering daily Chinese-burns.  Wales had been unable to break Wallaby resistance the week before, but now they invoked their own 'Spirit of Dunkirk'-esque resistance as the likes of Sam Warburton and Dan Lydiate chopped down and turned over wave after wave of Springbok attack - which, admittedly, wasn't overly imaginative.  With Dan Biggar in deadly form off the tee, the Welsh were in the lead going into the final 10 minutes - only for a piece of magic from Duane Vermuelen to eventually break the line.  The big number eight picked off the base of a scrum and dashed blind, half-breaking Davies' tackle to draw in Alex Cuthbert and then - looking the opposite way with three defenders climbing all over him - popped a delicious offload to skipper Fourie du Preez who scampered over in the corner for the match-winning try.

It was the traditional World Cup heartbreak for the stricken Welsh side, but it was hard to argue that the South Africans were not good value for their win - for Vermeulan's moment of genius alone.

Man of the Match:  Duane Vermeulen.  What a difference he's made to the Springbok back row.  Despite being the size of a hungry hippo he demonstrated a phenomenal appetite for work, making tackles and getting his hands on the ball but, then again, so did Schalk Burger.  What really sets Vermeulen aside is his ability to bust out big plays and silky hands at key times - his glorious offload for his team's try was the only way to unlock a stubborn Welsh defence and was deserving of a match-winning moment.  Sam Warburton was mightily impressive in defeat, too.
 
New Zealand 62 - 13 France

The scene was set.  Cardiff, quarter-final, All Blacks v Les Bleus with the French completely written off - it was all very 'a la 2007'.  On a Saturday night, in front of a packed, inebriated Millennium Stadium, it was a time for the rugby romanticists to dream of another historic upset - the unpredictable French defeating the all-conquering All Blacks.  Only that didn't happen, or even come close to happening.  What we did get, however, was one of the best exhibitions of 'Total Rugby' produced between two 'Tier One' nations, once again proving that New Zealand are, by quite some distance, still the best side in the world on their day.  Bugger.

One thing that was all too predictable, however, given their form under Philippe Saint-Andre, was how devoid Les Bleus were of ideas in attack and how ropey the mercurial Freddie Michalak was all over the park..for 10 minutes, at least.  After missing his only two tackles (on Ma'a Nonu, to be fair), Michalak's main contribution was to allow Brodie Retallick to charge down his kick and gallop over for a score whilst simultaneously pulling his hamstring to end his night prematurely.  Not the best day at the office for him, but it was about to get a whole lot worse for France.  After Nehe Milner-Skudder had jinked his way over and Julian Savea had touched down thanks to a sumptuous offload from Dan Carter, Les Bleus did show some resistance as Louis Picamoles - their stand-out player - wriggled over after collecting a loose ball.  But the relief was temporary, as Savea bulldozed his way over for a stunning second, and France faced a 13 point deficit at the break.

We all know that the French love their comebacks, and they did briefly look threatening in the second half as they came out with real aggression, albeit still lacking any creativity - and their goose was cooked when Picamoles perhaps took his frustration too far by 'pushing Richie McCaw's face with his fist' (otherwise known as a punch), to earn a yellow card.  It was admittedly pretty galling though to see McCaw get away scot-free after he had committed three cynical offences in one motion - or, to use similar language to the terminology used above, "cheated in the game using his hands".  In all likelihood, it would have made next to no difference, however, as the reigning champs ran riot in the final 25 minutes against a demoralised French team with Kaino, Savea (for his hat-trick), Reid and Kerr-Barlow (who grabbed a double off the bench) all dotting down for superb tries.

To para-phrase Alan Partridge, it was 'liquid rugby' and a joy to watch - although being on the receiving end didn't look like a whole lot of fun.

Man of the Match:  Julian Savea.  Well, it has to be hasn't it?  The comparisons with Lomu were there for all to see as he smashed tacklers out of the way left, right and centre.  Poor Noa Nakaitaci will be having nightmares as he was effectively bullied for a full 80 minutes and, let's be honest, did he really look like he wanted to tackle to Savea in the build up to the big man's second?  The Hurricanes winger is well on his way to being regarded as one of the greatest wingers of all time - if he isn't already - but he'd be the first to thank the likes of Dan Carter and Brodie Retallick, who were phenomenal as well.


Ireland 20 - 43 Argentina

This was, for me, without doubt the game of the weekend - which is saying something.  I don't think the Irish had underestimated the Pumas at all but I did wonder, from a couple of fans in green who I spoke to, that they thought they were big favourites even without Paul O'Connell, Peter O'Mahony, and Sean O'Brien.  As it turned out, this was one of the games where I was absolutely nauseating (and not just because of my general odour, for once), making constant claims of I told you so, whether it was in relation to the Argentinean display in general or the performances of Pablo Matera and Santiago Cordero.

The problem with the players that Ireland were missing wasn't just to do with their physicality (although that would no doubt have helped), it was to do with the mindset and aggression that they'd bring.  Instead - and, in any event, largely thank to speed that Argentina were playing against - the Irish defensive line was as tough as damp bog roll, with the likes of Matera making big metres with every carry to get the South Americans on the front foot.  They played with such pace and aggression that they looked in a different league to the men in green, and they got their reward with two stunning tries, one scored by centre Matias Moroni and the other brilliantly touched down by Joaquin Tuculet; both set up by the electric Cordero.  Ireland ground their way back into the match - especially when the brainless Ramiro Herrera was shown yellow for an off-the-ball hit - and sparked the massive green contingent of the crowd to life when Luke Fitzgerald (on for Tommy Bowe) scorched clear to get the score to 23 - 13 half time.

The momentum continued to swing towards the favourites when Fitzgerald superbly broke the line and offloaded to Jordi Murphy for a well-worked try by the sticks, to bring his side within 3 points.  It was as close as they would come.  The Pumas rode out the storm, and Tuculet scored in the corner in the 68th minute to put daylight between the sides, before the excellent Juan Imhoff produced a near carbon-copy of Fitzgerald's score to put the game to bed.  This had become a hammering, but it shouldn't have surprised anyone since Argentina now have a deadly back 3 to compliment their traditionally brutal pack.

Make no mistake, the first and last 20 minutes of this display were as good as anything produced by the All Blacks the night before under the same roof.

Man of the Match:  Pablo Matera.  Released back to Argentina by the Leicester Tigers after an injury-plagued couple of seasons, Matera showed the promise that once again led to Richard Cockerill defining him as 'one of the best young flankers in World Rugby'.  His aggression and work-rate were superb, and he smashed over the gainline with such ease time and time again.  He also introduced his shoulder rather vigorously into Ian Madigan's rib-cage on more than one occasion.  A brutal display, almost matched by the craft and accuracy of Nicholas Sanchez and the guile and pace of the wingers, Juan Imhoff and Santiago Cordero.



Australia 35 - 34 Scotland 

Ah, there had to be one, didn't there.  The game where we can forget about all the rugby that was played and instead concentrate on one moment - or, more accurately, one man - but I'll get to that later.  Instead, for now, I'll just comment on another enthralling encounter where the Wallabies looked slick and in control for large portions, only to be forced into mistakes and pegged back by a relentlessly physical and dogged Scottish side - who showed plenty of bite themselves in attack.  It was an odd game, where the Wallabies looked to be on the verge of cutting loose at any moment, but it never happened - even when Adam Ashley-Cooper and Drew Mitchell finished off well-executed team moves in the corner, and Michael Hooper burrowed his way over, they still couldn't shake off the men in blue.  Perhaps it was due to the ruthlessness of the Scots, which is not usually a quality you associate with their rugby team (although perhaps with William Wallace) - Greg Laidlaw was deadly off tee whilst Bernard Foley couldn't hit a barndoor with a boomerang, and Peter Horne spied a gap the size of Ayres Rock through a ruck to creep over for a score.

Trailing 16 - 15 at the break, the men in green and gold tried to take the game by the scruff of the neck and were helped when Craig Joubert and his TMO decided to controversially yellow-card Sean Maitland for a deliberate knock-on, for sticking out a hand as an automatic reaction.  This was the first call to receive plenty of lip-service from commentators and Scottish fans, but I have to say I thought it was the correct call.  It is a stupid rule - how anything that is clearly reactionary can be deemed as deliberate, I don't know - but over the last few years if you go for the ball with one hand, you're asking for trouble.  Joubert applied the stupid rule consistently, at least, and the Wallabies profited, when Drew Mitchell slid into the corner that Maitland would have been defending.  Foley had found his kicking boots, too, but gifted momentum back to Scotland with a charge-down try finished by Tommy Seymour, before Tevita Kuridrani wriggled over to finally - it seemed - but the Scottish resistance to bed.

Not so.  As the rains came plummeting down for pretty much the first time in this World Cup to give the evening a very Scottish-feel, James Slipper - the replacement loosehead for Australia - attempted a miss-pass 30 metres out from his own line, which was gleefully accepted by Mark Bennett, who raced over to give the underdogs the lead with 5 minutes to go.  Then came 'that' moment.  The Scots inexplicably threw to the back of their own lineout 25 metres out in torrential conditions, lost the ball, and when Josh Strauss appeared to knock the ball on with his shoulder, substitute prop Jon Welsh picked the ball up in an offside position.  Penalty to Australia, Foley with balls the size of boulders, the rest is cruel history.

A lot's been said about the decision - in fact, World Rugby have helpfully come out and said that Craig Joubert was wrong, which is a pretty appalling thing to do and effectively ends any lingering hopes Joubert may have had of Salmon fishing in the highlands.  In super-slow motion, the ball comes of Strauss, Nick Phipps plays at the ball, and it glances off him - therefore, it's a scrum and not a penalty to the Wallabies.  But I can see, in real time, why he made the decision - and the fact is that he could not refer to the TMO.  That in itself wasn't the bad bit about Joubert's performance - the questions that need to be answered are related to why this was a penalty when a nearly identical incident earlier resulted in just a scrum; why did he continually and wrongly penalise Scott Sio in the scrum when Nel was folding in; why did he sprint off the pitch like Dave Wilson after spotting a buffet when the game had finished?  It was a crap refereeing display and both sides should feel a bit aggrieved - especially the Scots of course - but bad performances do happen.  This is rugby, it has to be accepted, and moved on from, no matter how bitter that pill is to swallow (easy to say when I'm not Scottish) - and hope that World Rugby take the appropriate action against Joubert.

But I've seen a lot of talk about Scotland being 'robbed' or that they 'deserved to win' - no, they didn't.  Australia were the better side overall and, whilst very wobbly in patches, were good value for their victory with 5 tries to 3.  Scotland didn't deserve to win; but, with the display they put in and the guts they showed, they sure as hell didn't deserve to lose like that.

Man of the Match:  Craig Joubert.  Only joking (*ducks*).  Dave Denton stood out for me as he epitomised everything great about this Scottish display - relentless, unyielding and hugely physical.  He got the Wallabies on the backfoot on a regular basis with some massive carries and helped the backrow as a whole outshine their counterparts with some strong work at the breakdown and in the tackle, too.  Greg Laidlaw was also a stand-out for Scotland whilst Tevita Kuridrani probably enjoyed his best game for the Wallabies.

World Cup Preview - The Quarter Finals

I'm not going to lie - this was going to be a comprehensive epic match preview about England's massive quarter final, and the fact that I don't get to write it (and you don't get to read it) is the real tragedy of the hosts crashing out of their own World Cup so early.  So, instead of doing a thorough job on one match, I've done a half-arsed job on four.

Enjoy.


South Africa v Wales
Twickenham, 4pm

Not a bad way to get the weekend underway, really.  The Welsh injury curse has shown no signs of abating over the last week, with Eli Walker called up for the crocked Liam Williams, and then promptly declaring himself not fit as soon as he got within sniffing distance of the Welsh camp.  Interestingly, though, this curse seems to only be afflicting the backs at the moment - the pack is still looking pretty-much first choice and the selections of Dan Lydiate and Gethin Jenkins suggests that they're expecting a brutal battle in the loose.  Which, against South Africa, makes sense.  I have to say that the selection of Jenkins for Paul James is an odd one, especially as 'Melon' seems to have spent most of his scrummaging time reversing so quickly I'm surprised he hasn't started bleeping.  Also, watch out for Tyler Morgan coming into the 13 shirt for the biggest game of his life.  No pressure, mate.

Their opponents, the Springboks, haven't suffered the same problems with respect to injuries as their opponents, but they have had to overcome their own hurdles - namely, being crap.  After coming bottom of the Rugby Championship and losing to Japan, though, the Boks have got angry - which is not ideal, if you're playing them.  Their back row of Burger, Louw and Vermuelen is up there with the best in World Rugby and the back three of Pietersen, Habana and Le Roux have been at their wily, clinical best, with Habana now just one try away from being the World Cup's all-time leading try scorer and overtaking David Campese on the all-time international scoring charts.  Not bad, really.  The South Africans' focus primarily will be on the Welsh pack, who they need to squeeze off the park, in the tight - if they do that, they have the experience and the nous out wide to finish them off.

Key Battle

Handre Pollard v Dan Biggar.  It looks as if Heneke Meyer has finally landed on his preferred choice of fly-half - and the man to potentially steer the South African backline over the next 10 years - after flitting back and forth between Pat Lambie and Bulls playmaker will all the decisiveness of the Grand Old Duke of York.  Pollard offers a physical threat and superb awareness of his attacking options, but he can be tactically erratic with the boot - the exact opposite of Biggar, really.  The Ospreys man has become renowned for moonwalking his kicks at goal with unnerving accuracy, but his decision-making against the Wallabies last week was well below par as they squandered a two-man advantage.  These two need to take a leaf out of one-another's book to dominate - Pollard needs to control the game against a make-shift backline, whilst Biggar needs to take the chances when presented, because you suspect they will be few and far between.

Prediction

The Welsh pack still looks like a very decent - and physical - unit and, if they can handle the rather unsubtle approach of the Springboks, the men in red can be cautiously optimistic of causing an upset.  As they showed against England, all they need to do is cling on within touching distance - via the boot of Dan Biggar - and they can make things happen.  That said, the South African snowball is well and truly rolling now after that horror show against Japan and, with the back 3 in lethal form too, it's hard to see beyond the Boks for the win.  South Africa by 6.



New Zealand v France
Millennium Stadium, 8pm

Without doubt, the fixture I'm looking forward to the most this weekend, perhaps more in hope than expectation.  Millennium Stadium, Saturday night, a half-cut crowd and a French side who have been written off.  Add in the rumours that Les Bleus have apparently conducted a mutiny against the coaches (of course they have, it wouldn't be a World Cup without one would it? Vive La Revolution!), and we seem to have the perfect recipe for a night of madness and potentially a huge upset.

Except, sadly, once you step back and have a look at the sides and their form, you have to accept that there's only so much that raw Gallic passion and the natural chaos of this fixture can do to influence the result, which - right now - seems inevitable.  Both sides have been operating below their bests, but the All Blacks very much look as if they have been in control of that - you sense that they can go up through the gears when necessary - whilst the French have been floundering.  Perhaps with Saint-Andre exiled, an expansive style seemingly favoured in this game (with Dumoulin selected instead of Bastereaud), and with Dusautoir (the destroyer of All Blacks on previous occasions) firing up his side into a fury, you can expect a furious opening 20 minutes - but if there's one side who will be able to absorb that before taking control, it's New Zealand.  How predictable.  But, then again, who the hell knows with this fixture.

Key Battle

Kieran Read v Louis Picamoles.  There's little doubt that Read has been the premier number eight in World Rugby over the last 4-5 years and is probably the Kiwis' skipper-in-waiting, but we still haven't seen his best this tournament.  And if there's one bloke in the French ranks who has been making a positive difference and pulling his considerable weight, it's the gargantuan Louis Picamoles.  Picamoles is the sort of player who will need no invitation to get fired up for this encounter and, he'll be aware that, if he physically gets on top of one of the All Black leaders, there's an avenue for the French to follow.  Read, though, is such a big game player that you expect he'll be waiting for the Toulouse-man, and he'll use every trick in the book to keep him at arms length.

Prediction

All the romanticists - and most of the neutrals - will be backing the French when the two sides take to the field, and I've no doubt that Thierry Dussautoir will have his side suitably well-boiled for this one.  Some have commented that the All Blacks haven't really hit full stride yet, but I see that as ominous more than anything else - the French will come out firing, but you sense that the All Blacks have the experience and level-headedness to deal with anything Les Bleus can throw at them.  Of course, logic often goes out the window in games between these two, but at this stage I'm confident we'll see an All Black victory.  All Blacks by 12.



Ireland v Argentina
Millennium Stadium, 1pm

On the face of it, this one looks like being the tightest game of the lot.  With the Celtic injury crisis now inconsiderately leaping across the Irish channel, the men in green have found two of their most physical presences cruelly struck down, in the hulking forms of O'Mahony and O'Connell.  Obviously, the skipper is the biggest loss but both men are talismen; leaders who ooze aggression and refuse to take a backward step - otherwise known as a typical Munster forward.  Their loss is huge for the pack, as is Sean O'Brien, who was at his bowling-bowl best against France last week but misses out because he decided to pat Pascal Pape's tummy a little bit too hard.  The backline hasn't been able to completely avoid the curse either, with Johnny Sexton being passed fit - but you wonder if he'll be anywhere near 100%.  And, given, the importance that the men in green place on their playmaker and his tactical-kicking game, that could be a huge factor.

The Pumas, on the other hand, have snuck into this quarter-final relatively under the radar, despite pushing the All Blacks all the way in their opening fixture and then cruising through the remaining games.  I still get the impression that, for some reason, nobody particularly rates Argentina - despite the fact that they beat the Springboks in South Africa this year - or just lazily dismisses them as a 'scrummaging side'.  If that's you, shut up before you embarrass yourself.  With Lobbe and Matera in the back row, they have one of the most mobile and aggressive units around and their wingers, in the shapes of Imhoff and Cordero (who I will claim to having raved about 2 years ago in the junior World Cup) are electric.  Without doubt, for me, they are dark horses in this tournament and they have form against the Irish in World Cups, beating them in 1999 and 2007.  If you're expecting a solid Irish win, don't - this will go down to the wire.  My advice: bring a change of underpants.

Key Battle

Chris Henry v Pablo Matera.  Alright, so they're not strictly opposite each other, but you can guarantee that they'll be seeing a lot of each other over the course of the 80 minutes on Sunday.  Both are energetic, mobile and aggressive flankers who are more than capable over the ball, but their real strength lies in being first to the breakdown in attack and smashing away opposition to ensure quick ball and continuity.  It's almost a case of saying that whoever racks up the most yardage between these two wins their side the game.  Also keep an eye out for the tag-team battle between Murray and Sexton against Sanchez and Hernandez in the tactical kicking stakes.

Prediction

I'm finding this one the most difficult to call.  A week ago, I'd have said Ireland - but not by much.  Now, with the injuries and bans, I think that Puma pack - which would have been a big test for the men in green anyway - will fancy their chances in both the loose and the tight and, when I look down the backlines (especially out wide), the South Americans just seem to have more game-breakers.  A lot of it will come down to how fit Johnny Sexton really is - if he is 'Ben Youngs v Australia' fit (i.e. clearly still injured, but so important that the coaches have played him anyway), then the Irish will find themselves in a real scrap.  This will be a belter and could go either way, but I'm leaning towards a scalp for the Pumas.  Argentina by 2.




Australia v Scotland
Twickenham. 4pm

The interesting fact that I learned this week was that Scotland have beaten the Wallabies in 2 of their last 3 encounters, which is surprising when you consider most people would usually put these two at opposite ends of the Tier One scale.  Admittedly, both of those wins came in torrential rain in games that made watching the X-Factor seem like a pleasant alternative, with Scotland scoring a grand-total of 9 points in both of their victories, but there should be hope for the Scots there.  If this goes to an arm-wrestle, they can win.  But, the truth is, I don't think they'll want to - for the first time the men in blue have a backline which actually has teeth and a fly-half with genuine vision, and they'll want to use it.  They may have been pummeled by the South Africans in the group stages, but they've shown enough flashes of inspiration to give themselves a genuine hope in this game - rather than the usual unique brand of 'defeatist-optimism' usually sported by Scottish fans.

Unfortunately, they're playing a side who, at the moment, have shown all the qualities you would expect from a team gunning to be World Champions.  Against England, clinical efficiency, wonderful vision and sublime execution - against Wales, brutal defence and resolute organisation, even when two men down.  Even now that they've lost arguably their two best players in Pocock and Folau to injury, I wouldn't be overly optimistic of any team's chances against them.  The trick for Scotland is to not give Foley an arm-chair ride - if they rough him up, slow down the Aussie ball, they have a decent shot.  If they can't get to him, it's curtains.

Key Battle

Kurtley Beale v Stuart Hogg.  OK, of course a battle in the pack will be more important, but this is more fun.  I'll admit that I had hoped to write about Israel Folau in this paragraph, but Beale is hardly much of a step-down, is he?  In fact, you could argue that he was the game-changer when he came on against England, where his speed and footwork - and the fact that he is yet another playmaker in the Wallaby backline - caused mayhem.  He's opposite Stuart Hogg, a man who you could legitimately say has the measure of his illustrious opponents.  The way these two have been playing - going for territory first - they will both have to be rock solid under the high ball first and foremost, but there will also be chances to counter-attack.  They need to pick their times, and make them count.

Prediction

Don't get me wrong, I am a rarity for an Englishman - I have a lot of time for this Scottish side.  They have some brilliant talent out wide for the first time in a decade, they can play some good rugby at times and they've still got that traditional snarl up front.  But they're not in the class of the Wallabies on the evidence of this tournament - not by a long way.  I think that the back-row is an area where Scotland (like most northern-hemisphere teams, to be fair) will be outclassed (even with Pocock now ruled out) and even the set piece will be put under pressure by the rejuvenated and newly-solidified Aussies.  The kilt-wearers may take optimism from recent results (they've won two of their last three in turgid encounters) but this is a different animal altogether.  Australia by 13.



So there you have it.  An all-southern-hemisphere final is on the cards, meaning that we all have to smile and nod when we get that usual, arrogant drawl about northern rugby being pants.

@RuckedOver