We've all wasted money at one time or another. On the horses, on a t-shirt you've worn once, at a salad bar in general. You know what I mean. I now have that horrible feeling that I may have wasted 200-plus hard-earned notes on seeing the game this Saturday with my best chum from Australia (shout out to Hayden), simply because I think I will spend most of the game hiding behind my hands. I can only hope that the English players deal with pressure better than I do.
For all the perks of a home World Cup, the negative side - specifically, the English media - has reared its ugly head and utterly castrated the England side for their last-gasp loss to Wales. Nobody has been safe - the skipper, the rugby-league convert, the coach, the waterboy, and I'm pretty sure I saw an article condemning one of the child mascots as well. But Stuart Lancaster and his troops will have allowed that wave of negativity to break, and then dissected that Wales game - a game which they would have won were it not for a series of poor decisions in the last quarter. I'm not talking about Robshaw's decision to go for the corner, which I can understand (a decision is only ever as good as its execution), I'm talking about Lancaster's decision to take off our only big carrier (Burgess) after Vunipola had gone off injured, about Barritt's inexplicable decision to rush up in the build up to their try, about Parling's brain-numbing idea to throw the ball to the front with not even a hint of a shift-drive. These are mistakes, and they can happen - and they can be rectified.
Lancaster has probably selected the best team possible, given the circumstances, with Farrell doing enough last week to justify his inclusion, even though I think Ford is better suited to attacking Australia. Although, I should say that I don't understand Wigglesworth's inclusion on the bench - if we're winning, Ben Youngs will (more than likely) be playing well, so leave him on, but if we're down, surely Danny Care is the kind of player who can come on and make things happen?
Either way, England will know what their gameplan is. I suspect that the set-piece, the traditional Wallaby Achilles heel, will be pretty even given their recent improvements, but it's the Australian half-back partnership that needs to be targeted - for two reasons. Firstly, Foley is not the biggest guy and so it is here that the likes of Morgan, Launchbury and Tom Youngs should be able to make some headway - and momentum will be key to keeping Team Pooper (Pocock-Hooper, tee-hee) honest. If there's a collision won by the Wallabies, England will be in trouble if either is in the vicinity; expect to see Robshaw and Wood almost man marking them at breakdowns, and for England players to try and stay on their feet in contact to give their support runners time to get there. The second reason for targeting Foley is that he has shown, this year, that he does have a tendency to flap under pressure - not something we really saw in 2014. Given that the likes of Kuridani, Folau and Ashley-Cooper are lurking out wide, any chance to shut their supply down at source has to be taken, and so expect Foley to be given plenty of rough treatment.
England shouldn't need any encouragement to hand out the rough stuff against, potentially, the ultimate party-poopers (and I'm not just referring to Pocock and Hooper). Without wanting to sound like the Evil Emperor, the men in white will look to use their anger, and channel it from the first whistle. England need absorb the shit-storm that's been thrown their way and emerge clean on the other side, with ranks closed and a bloody single-mindedness as to their objective. Smash Australia. Run through Australia. Out think Australia. Beat Australia.
It's the pre-World-Cup-Final World Cup Final. I'll be watching. Some of it.
England Team News
Jonathan Joseph and Ben Morgan have recovered from injuries to return to the side after taking knocks in the opening game against Fiji, with Joseph coming in for Sam Burgess , who drops to the bench. Ben Youngs has also been passed fit to retain the 9 shirt but Joe Launchbury has stepped in to replace the injured Courtney Lawes. George Kruis and the newly-arrived grizzled veteran, Nick Easter, take spots on the bench.
Starting Line-up: Mike Brown; Anthony Watson, Jonathan Joseph, Brad Barritt, Jonny May; Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Joe Launchbury, Geoff Parling, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw, Ben Morgan.
Subs: Rob Webber, Mako Vunipola, Kieran Brookes, George Kruis, Nick Easter, Richard Wigglesworth, George Ford, Sam Burgess.
Key Player
Ben Morgan. Ben Youngs is critical, too, to the hosts' chances - especially as he has a decent record against Australia - but it's the Big Ben that really needs to chime tomorrow. The only way that England are going to get past the challenge of Pockock and Hooper is to get them retreating backwards by sending carrier after carrier over the gainline, preferably straight down Foley's channel. Against Fiji, I counted 4 touches for Morgan - 3 of them passes - and that is not simply good enough. When he gets his work rate and aggression up, there are very few 8s in the world who have Morgan's skill set, but England desperately need to see that form - the kind of which we saw against Australia last autumn - return, and soon.
Australia Team News
Australia have
made 14 changes to the team that beat Uruguay six days ago, with only Scott Sio remaining - the loosehead plays his third consecutive game this World Cup. It is the same XV that faced Fiji in their opening game of the tournament, with Foley at fly half and the dreaded Pocock-Hooper axis in the backrow.
Starting Line-up: Israel Folau; Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tevita Kuridrani, Matt Giteau, Rob Horne;
Bernard Foley, Will Genia; Scott Sio, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu; Kane Douglas,
Rob Simmons; Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, David Pocock.
Subs: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Greg Holmes,
Dean Mumm, Ben McCalman, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Kurtley Beale. Key Player
Bernard Foley. The fly half is a smooth operator when he's at his best but, as above, he has been a bit flaky of late. Anyone who has decided to forego social standing and read my blog over the years will know that I am a huge fan of his, but he has looked decidedly wobbly under pressure in 2015. How he stands up to that will be key the Wallabies' chances in this game because you can bet that, with the ball, England will throw everything down his channel and, without it, they will blitz the fringes to enforce a hasty decision. With a cool head, he's one of the best decision makers in the business and the perfect man to kick start this Wallaby backline, but it's all about how he deals with the intense pressure at Twickenham.
Key Battle
Chris Robshaw v David Pocock (yes, I know technically they're not opposite numbers). Rarely have two players gone into a game at such opposite ends of the media-popularity spectrum. Pocock is the people's darling, the classic openside - without the best stealer in the business - and a thoroughly good bloke, promoting a whole range of noble causes and all the while whilst having biceps the size of my face. Robshaw, on the other hand, has suffered questions on his leadership, his decision making and his ability - with even Eddie Jones deeming it somehow necessary to wade in and declare Robshaw 'not international class'. The fact is though that Pocock represents the biggest threat to England's hopes - his ability to turn over ball when England are building phases could throw them out of the World Cup. I think Robshaw is under-rated and I think he has it in him to man-mark Pocock out of the equation, blasting him clear at every ruck - but he will need the game of his life. Now is the time to step up.
Prediction
Like the Wales game, I went backwards and forwards in my head about this one. The difference is though that, the night before the Wales game, I dreamt the Welsh would win by 2 - last night, I dreamt that England will win by 4, so that's my gut feeling, and that's it. Oh, you want some reasoning? Fine. I think the hosts have more character than they have been given credit for by the media, and I suspect we'll see them come blasting out of the blocks on Saturday - if Australia can hang on for the first 20, then they'll be in with a proper sniff but, otherwise, I think raw aggression/desperation should be enough to give England the start they need to see the game through. England by 4.
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