Super XV Big Match Preview - Chiefs v Sharks

"Oh how the mighty have fallen" is a phrase coined by smug losers with nothing better to do than revel in the misfortune of those more successful than themselves.  And in Super XV, it's been banded about a fair bit in recent weeks – and it will be stinging criticism to the ears of the Chiefs and the Sharks, last years' Super XV finalists.  Yes, this is a rematch of the 2012 showdown, but these two powerhouses have been falling well short of the benchmarks they've set themselves recently.

It is the first time these two teams will have met since the Chiefs secured last year's title with a 37-6 victory, but unlike 2012, both sides have been inconsistent this season and are battling to return to their winning ways.  The Chiefs are currently in fifth position on the table, while the Sharks are in seventh place in the standings, and both sides have lost their last two matches - the Chiefs to the Reds and Waratahs and the Sharks to the Stormers and Cheetahs - and will head into this match low on confidence.

But that shouldn't stop the Chiefs from throwing the ball around in the manner that has made them such a success over the last couple of seasons – although in their last 2 matches, they may have been guilty of falling for their own hype and getting a little too free.  They lack some of the directness that they had previously, bringing accuracy and direction to all their flair, and that's not helped by the huge hole left by Sonny Bill Williams.  That's why the return of Richard Kahui – starting at 12 – cannot be underestimated, and the powerful All Black will be required to smash his side over the gainline to allow the fancy boys the space to open their box of tricks.  The Sharks have exactly the opposite problem, with the Durban faithful being starved of tries, precision and ambition from the South African outfit.  Their injury list is appalling, but they still have some quality players to deliver the goods, and there really is no excuse for them having gone tryless in their last three matches.  That's 240 minutes without a try – even fans of the Six Nations think that's a little dull.  It's time they started finishing off the opportunities their powerful pack inevitably creates.

The mighty haven't fallen just yet, they've just slipped up.  But a defeat here would make it very hard for one of these sides to get back on their feet in 2013…

 

Chiefs Team News

Following the Chiefs two recent losses coach Dave Rennie has made a host of changes to his side, which sees a total of nine new players in this weeks starting line-up.  Hooker Mahonri Schwalger gets his second start of the season having returned from a knee injury and is joined by lock Craig Clarke who is back in action after a lengthy period on the sidelines.  Prop Michael Kainga gets his first start of the year in the front row with Toby Smith.  Nick Crosswell starts at No 8 after Fritz Lee has been ruled out with a broken index finger and Augustine Pulu gets the nod at halfback.  Richard Kahui has proved to the medical team that he is fit to start, resuming the second five-eighth position with Tim Nanai-Williams at centre and Gareth Anscombe at fullback.

Starting Line up:  Gareth Anscombe; Lelia Masaga, Tim Nanai-Williams, Richard Kahui, Asaeli Tikoirotuma; Aaron Cruden, Augustine Pulu; Nick Crosswell, Tanerau Latimer, Liam Messam (co-captain); Brodie Retallick, Craig Clarke (co-captain); Michael Kainga, Mahonri Schwalger, Toby Smith.

Subs: Rhys Marshall, Ben Tameifuna, Michael Fitzgerald, Sam Cane, Brendon Leonard, Bundee Aki, Charlie Ngatai

Key Player

Brodie Retallick.  The big second row seems to grow in stature every season and once again he has been an immense presence for the Chiefs.  His work rate and willingness to carry is phenomenal and his set piece ability makes him a real nuisance to the opposition.  One of the few areas where I can see the Sharks frustrating the hosts is in the set piece, but if Retallick can take the lineout away from them, it's difficult to see where the visitors' platform will come from.

 

Sharks Team News

The Sharks have got an injury list as long as Danny Cipiriani's "things to do to screw up my career" pamphlet.  Paul Jordaan, Bismarck du Plessis, Tendai Mtawarira, Jacques Botes, Lwazi Mvovo and Louis Ludik are among the players missing for the clash – as a result, Francois Steyn, Charl McLeod and Piet Lindeque come into the back division.  In the pack, Lubabalo Mtembu, Derick Minnie, Anton Bresler, Jannie du Plessis and Craig Burden all start, while Wiehahn Herbst moves to loosehead.

Starting Line up:  Riaan Viljoen; Odwa Ndungane, Francois Steyn, Meyer Bosman, Piet Lindeque; Patrick Lambie, Charl McLeod; Lubabalo Mtembu, Jean Deysel (captain), Derick Minnie; Pieter-Steph du Toit, Anton Bresler; Jannie du Plessis, Craig Burden, Wiehahn Herbst.

Subs: Kyle Cooper, Danie Mienie, Franco van der Merwe, Keegan Daniel, Marcell Coetzee, Cobus Reinach, S'bura Sithole

Key Player

Pat Lambie.  The baby-faced 10 still looks like he still reads comics but his ability to take advantage of any shots at goal handed to him make him integral to any hopes the Sharks harbour against this Chiefs side – especially since they're not scoring tries.  Lambie will need to keep the hosts pinned back as much as possible and ensure his radar is switched on off the tee for there to be any upset on Saturday.

 

Key Battle

Tim Nanai-Williams v Francois Steyn.  The electric Nanai-Williams was on the bench last week but he regains the 13 shirt and will need to be at his explosive best if the hosts are to take full advantage of this stuttering Sharks side.  Steyn will present a stern physical test of his defensive abilities, and the South African is smart enough to exploit any positional errors at well, but if Williams can get one on one with space on the outside, then it's game over – Steyn is no slouch but Nanai-Williams is lightning.  Raw X-Factor against experienced physicality here – and if the Shark can shut the rapid centre down, then he may find his side are able grind out the win.

 

Prediction

The Sharks are looking positively toothless at the moment, with no real bite to their attacking play (apologies about the puns) – although in part that may be down to their horrendous injury list. The Chiefs may have stuttered slightly themselves, but I can't see them messing up at home – especially since they won't be making the mistake of 'resting' key players this week around (which, conversely, it what the Sharks seems to have done).  I can see a repeat of last year's final result.  Chiefs by 10.
 

 

What else is happening in Super Rugby this weekend?

Hurricanes v Stormers:  The Canes are still stuttering their way through the season looking great in parts and mediocre in others, and the Stormers are pretty similar – but they've just come off a huge win against fierce rivals the Sharks.  I think confidence is key and we may see a narrow away win.  Stormers by 4.

Reds v Blues:  Where the hell have the Blues come from?  All of a sudden, in the top three and playing some great rugby, despite an absence of big names.  They'll be up against it in Brisbane though, with a resurgent Reds side in no mood to slip down the table – and I think we'll see a home win.  Reds by 8.

Brumbies v Force:  The Brumbies played out a stunning draw against conference rivals the Reds last week and will be keen to get back to winning ways at home.  The Force are a much improved side recently but I can't see them turning over this talented ACT team – Brumbies by 9.

Bulls v Waratahs:  The Bulls claimed a morale boosting victory with a crushing win over the Kings last week, and they're always a difficult outfit to beat at home, but the Tahs will have a spring in their step themselves at the moment after a great win over the Chiefs.  I like the look of this Tahs side and I'm going to take a punt on a surprise away victory – Waratahs by 3.

Cheetahs v Kings:  The Kings came back down to earth with a bump after a lame performance against the Bulls, and things won't get any easier against a Cheetahs side defying all expectations and playing with a superb level of ambition and accuracy.  A straight-forward home win is on the cards – Cheetahs by 12.

Crusaders v Rebels:  The hosts are having a real hit and miss season, but at least that's better than their visitors, the Rebels, who are still plagued by off-pitch issues.  I think the Crusaders will be looking to vent their frustration and the poor Rebels are the poor souls in the way.  Crusaders by 18.

Post Six Nations Lions XV - Fly Half

A dark day for Lions selectors, today.  I am sure that, like me, they had pinned all their hopes onto the messiah of English rugby, Danny Cipriani.  But they, and everyone else, will have been humbled by the news that Danny-boy, whilst on a pub crawl in Leeds, decided to tackle his defensive frailties head-on by taking on a bus.  He lost.  What would be merely 'practice' to one of the Tuilagi brothers left our hero in a crumpled heap with a pretty sore bonce and some severely indented pride (you would hope).  He's emerged otherwise unscathed with only minor concussion, but it is probably time to accept that this particular genius (Kelly Brook dated him, so he must be good) won't be in Australia this summer.  And so, with our options suitably diminished and our hopes of a Lions victory massively deflated, let's take a look at who is in the frame to "fill in" for Cipriani in the 10 shirt this summer.

Fly half

OK, in all seriousness, the Lions need a great fly half.  Whether they've had an attacking maverick, like Gregor Townsend in 1997, or boot-loving general like Rob Andrew in 1989, all successful Lions tours have a fly half who dictates proceedings and sets things in motion around him.  Personally, I think against this Australian team we need the best of both worlds – someone with a decent boot to play territory but an aggressive playmaker who isn't afraid to stand flat and hit his power runners on the gainline.  Whoever the Wallabies pick at 10 themselves won't be the biggest defender, so his channel has to be exploited mercilessly – and it all starts with who the Lions pick in their 'quarterback' role.  RuckedOver takes a look at who will (in all likelihood) be stealing all the glory this summer.

TEST STARTER: JOHNNY SEXTON.  I think it's pretty hard to pick anyone else.  He may not have played since towards the beginning of the Six Nations (aside for 65 minutes against Zebre), but this man is a class act for Leinster and for Ireland – it's no coincidence that their Six Nations campaign imploded after he got crocked..  A real general with a humdinging-howitzer of a boot, he's got a wonderful range of passing and the aggressive mindset to attack the gainline and take the ball up himself if the opportunities are there.  I think he'd really enjoy playing alongside my selected 9, Ben Youngs, and would find some real change in hitting lines off the darting runs the scrum half likes to go on.  Are there any drawbacks?  Well, very occasionally, he gets a little flakey under pressure – but there aren't many fly halves who don't and I haven't seen it happen for a fair while.  His eyes are also unnervingly close together, but even that doesn't stop me from putting the Leinsterman in at 10 for my Lions team.

BENCHER: OWEN FARRELL.  Jeremy Guscott, who usually gets on my goat anyway, has been banging on about him being the "Ice-Man" – which seems to be overdramatizing the fact that this bloke is simply a very good goalkicker and a strong all-round fly half.  His kicking game gets all the plaudits but this season I've been impressed with his ambition – again, often with the boot – to try and attack different areas, and because he's so accurate, 90% of the time the risks that he takes come off.  His crossfield kicks have yielded some great tries for Saracens and a fizzing 20 metre beauty of a pass was the highlight of the game against Scotland – it's all part of an increasingly impressive all-round game the young fly half is producing.  Strong and aggressive in defence as well, he certainly has a shout at getting into a starting jersey, but he still has some questions to answer about his decision making (which can be iffy at times, as it was against France) and his temperament – the Aussies love a friendly word or two on the pitch, and the Lions don't want their 10 introducing his forehead to his opposite number's nose.

DIRT TRACKER:  JONNY WILKINSON.  There I said it.  I'd take him.  Firstly, who else is there?  See below for my thoughts on that.  And secondly, he can still produce the goods.  His performance against Leicester in the Heineken Cup quarter final was masterful.  Under the cosh, he calmly played for territory until his forwards got into the game, and then he brought in his power runners out wide to hammer home the advantage.  Couple that with his phenomenal strike rate with the boot, and you have a fly half who not only does a good job but also has the experience to inspire those around him.  I can think of no better player to lead the line for the mid-week side and his presence in the squad can only be of benefit to those around him.  All the noises from various camps suggest that Jonny won't be going, but when the chips are down and/or there's disgruntled grumblings within the camp, I can't think of anyone I'd rather have around.

So who misses out?  In my opinion, Sexton and Farrell are nailed on and a third choice (if taken) is the best the others can hope for.  Dan Biggar is solid and a very decent option, but I don't think he'll have enough to get into the test team and therefore doesn't bring anything really different.  James Hook is certainly capable of something different and is wonderfully versatile, but we haven't seen him excel for Wales for a while and he hasn't got a struggling Perpignan backline to fire this season.  Paddy Jackson?  Ronan O'Gara?  Too young, too old.  Toby Flood or Charlie Hodgson?  Flood is similar to Sexton in how he plays but has more 'off days', whilst Hodgson has faded this year and can't get into his club team after a magnificent start to the season.  Whilst I think it's unlikely, I'd like to see Jonny lace his boots for one last hurrah.

Who would you pick at 10 for the Lions?

Super XV Big Match Review - Reds 19 - 19 Brumbies

One of the favourite methods of selecting a squad for an upcoming tour or series is to have a "Probables v Possibles" game to see who's deserving of a spot in the team, as made famous by various All Blacks training camps over the years.  This has lots of benefits – firstly, it gives a lot of dark horses the chance to shine in a game played by internationals and secondly, the players are so pumped up that they smash the stuffing out of each other, causing injuries and thus removing some of those pesky selection headaches that all coaches secretly loathe.

But Robbie Deans needn't worry about that for the upcoming Lions series – he's had the Brumbies v Reds games to do it for him.  On one hand, you have the Queenslanders, a side full of blokes who have been there and done it – established Wallabies like Will Genia, Quade Cooper, James Horwill and Digby Ione – whilst on the other you have the Brumbies, a youthful outfit playing without fear – with youngsters like Christian Lealiifano, Ben Mowen, Jesse Mogg and Henry Speight all staking claims this year.  It was the perfect match up for Deans in many ways, and it wasn't too different for the neutral, with both sides at their best when playing free-flowing, fast, attacking rugby.  There was little doubt, even before kick off, that this one was going to fizzle – especially with the home crowd at Suncorp in full voice.

But despite the Reds having all the initial intent, it was the Brumbies who took an early advantage in the game with two penalties in the opening 10 minutes from Christian Lealiifano, who was to have a superb game in his continued push for international recognition against the Lions.  But whilst it was the fleet footed and intelligent Lealiifano making waves for the visitors, it was a thumping, brutal lineout drive from the Reds pack (plus the 2 centres) that got them on the board,  with number 8 Jake Schatz touching down to give the Reds a 1 point lead, following Cooper's conversion, after a quarter of an hour.  They thought they had another when Rod Davies went inches from scoring following a significant charge from fellow winger Digby Ione, but instead it was the ACT outfit who grabbed the next 5 pointer.

The fantastic Jesse Mogg injected some serious pace into a stalling Brumbies attack to make the initial inroads into the Reds defence, before the ball went right to Lealiifano, who dummied past Ione to score near the corner – and he followed it up with a dead-eyed conversion too.  As the hosts fought to regain the lead, it became increasingly clear that they had adopted an 'attack at all costs mentality', repeatedly passing up easy shots at goal for attacks on the Brumbies line.  This was, I assume, an attempted statement, but unfortunately the only message that came across to those watching was that the Reds were about as accurate as a Michael Fish weather prediction, with James Horwill and Will Genia – two of the most experienced heads in the Queensland side – opting for tap and goes that led to nothing as opposed to taking the penalty points on offer.  Even when Lealiifano continued his eventful evening by being sent to the sin bin, the Reds couldn't find a way past an aggressive, passionate and organised Brumbies defence and, although Nic White missed a couple of pots at goal to extend the visitors' lead, they went in 13 – 7 up at the break.

All the pressure the Reds were exerting was being absorbed by a bruising Brumbies defence, but cracks were beginning to show at the start of the 2nd half.  Firstly, Anthony Faingaa was tackled into touch inches short of the line following a sweeping, length-of-the-field move, before Rod Davies eventually breached the resistance following a long pass from Cooper to score in the corner, with the fly half missing the conversion.  The Reds were within one, but the Brumbies were in no mood to surrender – instead they clawed their way into a 7 point advantage through two more penalties from Lealiifano's flawless boot.  The Reds were getting frantic and yet were still ignoring kicks at goal in favour of quick taps or kicks to the corner, and for a while it looked like it might cost them.  Time and time again they surged at the visitors' try line, and time and time again they were thwarted – with a Will Genia pass going astray and Ben Daley being held up over the line.  But the relentless waves of Red finally broke down the blue and white wall, with Scott Sio being sent to the sin bin and Liam Gill wriggling over from short range.  Gill, along with his opposite number, George Smith, had been a standout player for the Reds and the final result was to echo that of his personal battle with Smith – evens.  With Cooper's conversion, the game was tied at 19-19, and that's how it remained.

A draw may have been frustrating for the players, but the skill levels, commitment and ability on show was utterly sublime for the neutral – and a fair few furthered or reignited their claims to a green and gold Jersey, with the likes of Horwill, Mowen, Gill, Smith, Cooper and Lealiifano all impressing.  There may have been no winners as far as the two sides were concerned, but I should imagine a fair few Wallabies in June may look back at this one and note it down as being a little personal victory.

What else was occurring across the Super Rugby world last weekend?

Waratahs 25 – 20 Chiefs:  The Waratahs turned in their best performance of the season as they turned over reigning Champions the Chiefs in Sydney.  The Tahs scored tries through debutant Cam Crawford, Israel Folau and a late effort from John Ulugia, with the Chiefs responding with scores from Gareth Anscombe and Ben Tameifuna.

Hurricanes 22 – 16 Force:  The Canes held on for a scrappy win in Wellington against a stubborn Force side.  The hosts had Jeff Allen, Brad Shields and Tusi Pisi to thank for their scores whilst the visitors' only try came from Kiwi Alby Mathewson.

Kings 0 – 34 Bulls:  The Kings produced comfortably their worst performance of the season as they suffered the humiliation of being 'nilled' at home by the struggling Bulls.  The visitors were rampant, with Jan Serfontein, Jano Vermaak, Jaques Potgieter and Akona Ndungane all crossing the Kings' try line.

Sharks 6 – 12 Cheetahs:  The Sharks' bad dip in form continues as they were turned over in yet another tryless display.  The hosts could only muster points from the boot of Pat Lambie whilst the in-form Cheetahs got over the line twice via Raymond Rhule and Wille Le Roux.

Crusaders 24 – 8 Highlanders:  The Crusaders condemned the Highlanders to yet another defeat despite the visitors showing plenty of ambition and resilience in defence.  The home side ended up winning comfortably with efforts from Robbie Fruean and Tom Taylor, with young centre Jason Emery grabbing his first Super Rugby try for the visitors.

Post Six Nations Lions XV - Scrum Half

This, to be honest, is the selection I’ve been dreading.  Firstly, there are a lot of good candidates so people are bound to be upset when Gatland announces his team next week, and secondly, people who know me know who I’ll pick (because one of my favourite players happens to be a scrum half, and therefore they will administer abuse as soon as I (predictably) pick him).  So, suitably braced for allegations of harbouring a secret man-crush or love affair, let’s see who I’ve got in my Lions squad at 9...

Scrum Half

The game has changed a lot over the years, but I don’t think 9s have.  Wingers have become giants, props have become rapid, and yet scrum halves have remained obnoxious little toads disliked by almost everyone on the pitch.  And yet they are integral to any team – probably the most important men in any side.  Their combination with the 10 often dictates how much space and ball the outside backs are going to see, and seeing as I’m going to picking a 10 who stands pretty flat and attacks the gain line (naming no names), I want a scrum half with the ability to create holes for him and pull defenders away from him with a running game.  Plus, with big carriers like Sean O’Brien and Cian Healy lurking around, a running 9 is exactly what they need to pick lines through arms, rather than shoulders, to make the big yards.  With that in mind, join RuckedOver in reviewing the British and Irish scrum half candidates:

TEST STARTER:  BEN YOUNGS.   Like I said, I’m expecting stick for this one.  But I made the prediction that he’d be a Lions number 9 when I first saw him play for Leicester against South Africa when he was 18/19 – still a 3^rd choice scrum half back then – and I’d really like to be able to pat myself on the back for having almost supernatural levels of foresight.  And, as Austin Healey has pointed out, on front foot ball he is probably the best scrum half in the Northern Hemisphere – his ability to draw in defences around the ruck and put runners through holes is second to none, and he has the speed to get through the gap himself.  Couple this with the fact he has largely eliminated his ‘two step’ pass when it’s time to ship it wide, and is probably the best box-kicking candidate, and you have an attacking 9 with all the right ingredients to excel for the Lions – plus he has a good history against the Aussies, who will be wary of him.  His only issue comes when he’s under pressure, and he can occasionally seem indecisive – but if the pack are doing their job, this shouldn’t be a problem.  And as a further bonus, he also provides entertainment for the rest of the touring party – please see @stuffbensaid on twitter (a collection of his ditzy comments) for an idea on what I mean.  One of the latest examples:  Tom: "Why shouldn't I do woodwork?" Lendrid (Youngs’ nickname): "Two reasons - 1, you're sh*t; and 3, it'll fall apart."Tom:"What happened to number 2?" Lendrid:"Oh." Brilliant.

BENCHER:  MIKE PHILLIPS.  This is a difficult one, because I really dislike Mike Phillips (as a player).  But I suppose that’s a sign of a quality scrum half – I’ve usually found him gobby, petty and petulant, apart from when I was supporting him when he was playing for the Lions, when I thought he was an absolute hero.  He’s the sort of bloke who’s great when he’s on your side but you can’t stand playing against him – someone with the ability to really get underneath the opposition skin, which is a great quality to have down under.  His passing is slick, his defensive work superb, but it’s his physicality that makes him really stand out – at 6 foot 3, he’s probably the only 9 who can take a power battle to the opposition back row.  His ability to withstand pressure will be key if the Lions pack is going backwards and Youngs is being pressurised, which makes him an ideal bench player in my view.  As long as he can keep up the form we saw at the end of the Six Nations (rather than at the beginning, when it looked as if he may have been scoffing too much cheese and wine in France) then his place in the matchday squad is assured.

DIRT TRACKER: DANNY CARE.  The Harlequins 9 may have one of the worst haircuts in the rugby world but there’s no doubting his form this year – summed up by his nomination for Aviva Premiership player of the year.  His acceleration is electric and he keeps fringe defences on their toes by ruthlessly exploiting gaps around the edges of rucks and mauls.  He is another scrum half who has the ability to wind up the opposition and put them off their game, and I think he has a great shot at being the Lions starting 9 if he can continue his club form in the warm up games; because he and Youngs are fairly similar, it will be one or the other, rather than both, in the matchday squad.  Where he is a shade short of Youngs currently though is in his box kicking and his vision – he is great at going for gaps himself but is less adept at creating the holes for others.  Care travels, but he’ll have to work on these aspects if he’s to get in the matchday squad...and get a better haircut.

Which other yappy 9s are pushing for a spot on the plane?  Well, Conor Murray is probably the unluckiest out of the remainder after having a solid Six Nations and a few noteworthy performances for Munster, but he’s a fairly similar player to Phillips but without the same ‘punchy’ physicality – and for that reason, he just misses out.  Greg Laidlaw is another who will be feeling hard done by – his goalkicking and organisation were essential for Scotland’s success, but do the Lions really want a 9 with an average pass who offers next to no running threat, just because he’s reliable?  Plus he seems like a nice guy – boring.  We like our 9s to have little man syndrome (even Phillips has it, inexplicably).

Who would you pick at 9 for the Lions?

Post Six Nations Lions XV - Number 8

To my horror, I’ve only just twigged that the Lions squad announcement is only one week away, which means I really have to get my skates on with this squad selection.  All the papers are already claiming they have ‘exclusive’ inside knowledge on who’s going and who’s staying, but because I’m a tremendously arrogant and ignorant individual, I’m going to ignore what the papers are predicting and pick the two chaps who I think should be vying for that number 8 spot this summer – and one of the picks is pretty leftfield...

Number 8

Number 8s are a bit of a rare breed.  Gone are the days of gargantuan individuals with a weight problem only matched by the height, exemplified by the mighty Dean Richards in the 80s/90s (although Nick Easter still flies that particular flag) – nowadays you have to be a supreme athlete as well.  Almost as tall as a second row, as strong as a prop and with an engine that just keeps on chugging.  But one thing I’ve noticed of late is that the home nations are struggling to produce really big-carrying number 8s, with everyone’s standouts Jamie Heaslip and Toby Faletau making more waves with their defensive abilities rather than charging over the gainline with tearful defenders clinging off their back.  With my picks on the flank – Robshaw and Warburton – I need a number 8 who’s an out and out carrier, a bulldozer that will have Quade Cooper requiring a change of underwear at every break in play.  And that’s why I’ve pulled a surprise with my first pick at the back of the scrum...

TEST STARTER:  SEAN O’BRIEN.   Seriously.  I’m usually all for the logic of not playing players ‘out of position’, and I know he plays 7 for Ireland and 6/7 for Leinster, but he’s filled that famous blue shirt plenty of times with the number 8 on his back (check out the highlights video), and he’s probably the most destructive ball carrier in the home nations - with the exception of one injury prone individual (see below).  Not the tallest, he is lightening quick off the mark – important when picking off the base of the scrum – and has a ferocious fend, great offload and a generally entertaining ‘bump’ ability (when opposition tacklers are forced to either sit down or try their hand as a door mat).  He made more metres (187) in the Six Nations than Heaslip (67) and Faletau (116)combined, as well as topping the actual ball carrying charts – up there with Faletau and Picamoles.  He has all the attributes and experience to be a Test quality 8 for the Lions and even though there are more regular candidates to choose, with two workhorse flankers I need a real powerhouse – and O’Brien fits the bill perfectly.

BENCHER: TOBY FALETAU.  I genuinely think this guy is the classiest back rower in the UK.  When he first came on to the scene, everyone thought he was just going to be power-packing lump, but he’s developed into a wonderfully intelligent and industrious number 8.  An astonishing defender, he finished the World Cup in 2011 with a colossal statistic – 75 tackles made, 0 missed.  His carrying has been a bit hit and miss lately – he made a huge 60 metres against Ireland but then faded slightly as the tournament went on.  His modesty when playing down his Lions chances is also indicative of a grounded character who just wants to get his head down and work for the team – a great trait to have.  I’d like his carrying to be a little bit more bullish, but I can’t fault his work rate in the loose and his blockbusting defensive abilities.  He’s on my bench for now, but I reckon he’ll be pushing all the way for a starting spot.

And what of the other contenders?  Well, Jamie Heaslip won’t like being left out, and to be honest I’m angry with him.  I had him down, along with plenty others, as being a potential Lions captain prior to this tour – but he’s actually played himself out of contention and made me look stupid.  Usually so reliable, he had a mistake-ridden Six Nations, was uninspiring when Ireland were rudderless and was exceptionally poor on the carry (he made a grand total of 5 metres in his first 2 games – we’re getting into Steve Borthwick territory there).  He may well go because Gatland likes him, but in my view, he shouldn’t travel on form.  Far more unlucky is Johnnie Beattie, who looked great in parts for Scotland with some eye catching displays, but did go missing on occasion and has struggled to hold down a starting spot for Montpellier – but I certainly wouldn’t be disappointed if he was selected.  Are there any contenders from England?  James Haskell?  Banterous but limited.  Nick Easter?  Doubtful.  Thomas Waldrom?  Just no.  Ben Morgan?  Now, there’s my wildcard pick.  Cursed with injury at a key time this season, Morgan was sorely missed by England after a tremendously impressive opening against Scotland where he consistently barrelled through defenders, and by my reckoning he’s the best ball-carrying number 8 out of the Home Nations.  He’s shown what he’s capable of on his return for Gloucester, but it’s probably come too late – but if he is called up, I think he could be incredibly effective.

 

Who would you pick at 8 for the Lions?

Post Six Nations Lions XV - Openside Flanker

One of the chief candidates for the next position in my Lions selection was lighting the cigars last week as the betting markets decided to suspend betting, apparently sure that Sam Warburton is on the cusp of being named Lions captain.  Now, I don't know if this is just a recent surge in betting spearheaded by the friends and family of the Welshman, or if 'Gatters' has gotten a bit free and loose with his gob again to someone, but either way, I find it a bit odd, given that the 7 shirt is probably the most competitive position on the plane.  Let's see who's grappling it out for the openside flanker spot, regardless of all the captaincy hoo-ha…

Openside Flanker

I wrote in a previous post that having an out-and-out seven is not a necessity in your side provided you have a balanced backrow, and that's what I'll be keeping in mind with this selection.  If you have a bulldozing, powerhouse blindside and/or number 8 with all the subtlety of Brian Blessed on a particularly obnoxious day, then sure, get a Neil Back, Richie McCaw or David Pocock-esque figure in that 7 shirt.  If you have an all-rounder, a ball playing blindside who isn't too shabby at stealing ball himself, then you can afford a more rounded individual on the other side of the scrum.  And seeing that Chris Robshaw (my number 6 – see my last post) fits into that latter category, I'll be going to going for a more marauding, chaos-inducing character at openside.  The need for a 'pure' scavenger is also lessened by the sad news that David Pocock (to my mind, the world's best 7) will, in all likelihood, miss the series with a knee injury – and although Michael Hooper, Liam Gill, and George Smith are all fantastic replacements, none of them are as lethal over the ball as Pocock at international level, although they may offer more in other areas.

TEST STARTER: SAM WARBURTON.  Shock number 1:  he isn't an 'out and out' openside flanker as many Welsh fans will have you believe.  He averages less turnovers per game than Robshaw or Kelly Brown, both who are players deemed more effective in the 6 shirt.  Shock number 2:  He's not going to be my captain by a long shot.  But despite these 2 points, Warburton can still be the Lions most important player.  The Welsh captain is an outstanding openside flanker with a frankly unbelievable engine that just keeps going for 80 minutes, beating opposite numbers to the breakdown and creating havoc at ruck time.  Halfway through the 6 Nations, I was wandering if he was going to even get on the plane, but he came back magnificently with a great performance against England followed up by some decent club form.  He has a decent set of hands on him, is an effective tackler, a strong carrier, a natural leader and isn't too shabby at stealing ball either.  In many ways, he's pretty similar to Robshaw, and having two quick, scavenging, ball-playing flankers who can also carry is, for me, a great combination to run against a mobile and aggressive Australian pack.  Are they too similar to play together?  There may be some who will say that and, hopefully, only time will tell, but for now Warburton has the 7 shirt.  

DIRT TRACKER:  JUSTIN TIPURIC.   The Celts have been raving about the Ospreys number 7, and rightly so.  I saw him playing live in a Heineken Cup game earlier this season and his speed and precision at the breakdown was a cut above the rest of his colleagues and, against England, this was the case at international level.  His speed across the park can be devastating when a game opens up and hits a higher tempo, and when he's first to the breakdown he has the right build to get really low over the ball and effect turnovers.  He's probably been the form openside out of all the opensides this year, so he definitely gets on the plane – but why isn't he starting?  Well, I've also seen him go missing on occasion in tighter games that don't have the width or tempo to allow him to make use of his speed, and if the game does slow down then the Lions will need a slightly more physical presence in the close exchanges.  However, his moment of magic to set up Cuthbert's second try against Wales – where he showed the awareness and speed of an international centre – was a prime example of what the Ospreys man is capable of, and if he can produce a few more moments like that, he may well force himself into reckoning for a starting jersey.

Who else could be challenging for that 7 shirt?  Well, Robshaw and Brown were both playing in the openside position for their country, but I've picked them as contenders for the 6 shirt, whilst I have other plans for Sean O'Brien.  Chris Henry has won plaudits after a fine season for Ulster, but unfortunately for him, Declan Kidney refused to give the young flanker any significant game time in an international shirt, and he was outperformed in the Heineken Cup by the young Saracen Will Fraser.  Fraser himself has had an outstanding season and will, without doubt, be a future international, but it's hard to see how he can force his way into the reckoning against other more established candidates.   Steffon Armitage is another whose name has been thrown around with abandon after Stuart Lancaster's decision to ignore him for England duty, despite a series of awards and standout performances for the former London Irish chubster in Toulon – but without that recent international exposure and seeing as he was largely outperformed by Julian Salvi in the Heineken Cup quarter final against Leicester, it would be a surprise if he got on the plane.  That said, he has a semi final against Saracens to push his case one final time.

Who would you pick at 7 for the Lions?

Aviva Premiership Big Match Review - London Wasps 24 - 37 Exeter Chiefs

I think Exeter Chiefs get a bit of a raw deal.  As a top 6 side who regularly cause problems for the top 3 (as seen by their win away at the Stoop a few weeks ago), they remain attached to the 'underdog' tag in most matches and any victories against decent opposition are greeted with surprise and an "Oh, the opposition must have forgotten to show up".  They get labelled a team of grafters which, to an extent, is true given that they have no real superstars amongst their ranks – with the force of nature Naquilevuki only seeming to be a part-timer – and yet they're the 2nd highest try scorers in the league.  More than the highly-proclaimed Gloucester and Harlequins sides.  They deserve credit for being an entertaining, effective all-round side, but they seldom get it.  And I'm as bad as anyone else – I had them down for a narrow defeat at Wasps on Sunday despite the fact that Wasps had lost their last 6 matches in all competitions and Exeter had won their previous three against the Londoners.  In reality, if I'd ignored the number of international caps and lists of players with "Wow" factor and focussed on results and teamwork, this one was always Exeter's for the taking.

But it was the London side who had the better of the opening exchanges, with Elliot Daly converting a monster penalty attempt after Stephen Jones fluffed an opening effort wide of the mark, before Exeter hit back swiftly with some style.  They thought initially they had got a try through veteran number 8 Richard Baxter following a superb break from in-form fly half Gareth Steenson,  but the score was ruled out and the Chiefs had to settle for a Steenson 3 pointer instead.  They didn't have to wait long though before crossing the Wasps line though, as the Wasps defence began to look as water tight as a sieve.  Firstly, hooker Jack Yeandle burrowed over in the left hand corner following a terrific gallop down the right by lock Damian Welch before, five minutes later, winger Jack Nowell waltzed in untouched following a slick, but badly defended, lineout move. 

The Chiefs were utterly rampant at this point, with James Scaysbrook outstanding in the physical exchanges, and the home side were looking shell shocked – the back row of Ashley Johnson, James Haskell and Billy Vunipola were sliding off tackles on an alarmingly regular basis and were being outperformed in the speed and aggression departments.  Steenson knocked over another penalty and the game that was supposed to be a tight affair was in danger of becoming a rout – the hosts needed something special to pull themselves back into it.  Luckily for Wasps, they don't exactly have a shortage of X-Factor out wide, and Christian Wade showed off his finishing abilities with a scything break through the Chiefs midfield before stepping the cover to touchdown under the posts.  It pulled the deficit back to 10 points at the turnaround, but Wasps had to find a way to start physically matching the speed and precision of the Exeter pack, as well as close up some of the gaping holes in their defence.

Unfortunately, the hosts did exactly the opposite upon the resumption of play.  After conceding soft yardage to Dean Mumm and Scaysbrook, the magnificent Welch – a menace with the ball in hand all afternoon – strode through an abysmal attempt at a tackle from Tim Swainston before powering through Daly on the way to an excellent individual score.  It was a key moment as you could feel the belief drop out of the players and supporters of the home side and even when Southwell went over following quick hands from Daly whilst Scaysbrook was in the sin bin, there was no real expectation that it would lead to a significant come back.  Exeter just seemed better in all the key areas – dominant in the set piece, overpowering at the breakdown, inventive in attack and rock solid in defence.  They grabbed their bonus point score through Haydn Thomas, who darted over after spotting Haskell out of position following another powerful surge from the Chiefs pack, before Steenson hammered the nail in the coffin of Wasps' Heineken Cup hopes with a late penalty.  There was still time for Tom Varndell, who had certainly not disgraced himself, to grab a consolation score on his 100th game for the Londoners after an initial break from scrum half Charlie Davies, with the winger cruising past the cover defence in another frightening display of speed.

Too little, too late for Wasps though.  An end-of-season collapse should not detract from an otherwise promising recovery, considering where they were last year, but it is the Chiefs who should take all the credit.  Quiet and unassuming, they have gone about their business in an effective way and have, in all likelihood, ensured Heineken Cup rugby will once again be played at Sandy Park.  They're no flash in the pan, but they're flasher than we give them credit for.

What else was happening across England's green and pleasant (in parts) land at the weekend?

 

Bath 27 – 26 Leicester Tigers:  Bath kept their Heineken Cup hopes alive with a great 1 point win following a dominant 2nd half performance at the Rec.  Despite stunning tries from Tom Croft and Ben Youngs, the hosts prevailed through Simon Taylor, Semese Rokoduguni, Horacio Agulla and the exceptional Francois Louw in a result that means the Tigers still have to win in the next round to secure a home semi final.

Gloucester 28 – 23 Saracens:  Gloucester secured themselves a Heineken Cup spot with a great home win over the league leaders.  A double from lightening wing Jonny May and a superb solo effort from the returning Ben Morgan was enough to topple the visitors, who had Joel Tomkins to thank for both of their tries.

London Irish 47 – 28 London Welsh:  The men in green won the battle of the Exiles with a comprehensive home victory.  Despite tries for Welsh from Nick Scott, Seb Stegmann and Greg Bateman, the hosts were rampant, clocking up 5 pointers through Guy Armitage (2), Halani 'Aulika (2), Chris Hala'ufia, Sailosi Tagicakibau and Matt Garvey.  On a side not, Aulika has to be the best try scoring prop in the world at the moment.

Worcester Warriors 26 – 42 Harlequins: Harlequins pulled away with a convincing win after a stubborn performance from the Warriors at Sixways, to confirm the reigning champions' place in the playoffs this year.  The Warriors scored two tries through Chris Pennell and Alex Grove, but were undone by the visitors who racked up tries from Nick Evans (2), Tom Williams, Danny Care (2) and Mike Brown.

Northampton Saints 47 – 7 Sale Sharks:  The Saints administered a 7 try thrashing to the recovering Sale Sharks as they confirmed their place in the playoff spots this year along with Saracens, Leicester and Harlequins.  The hosts were rampant and scored tries through Tom Wood, Lee Dickson, Luther Burrell, Jamie Elliot (2) and James Wilson (2), whilst the visitors could only get over the try line once, thanks to a last minute effort from James Gaskell.