Dublin is not usually a place you'd associate with being depressing. When I think of Dublin, I think of beer, banter, an unhealthy amount of pub grub and parties on every corner, each one complemented by a member of an English drunken rugby tour dribbling onto the pavement. But this weekend, we see an out of sorts Irish outfit who have fallen short of the standards they set in their opening 50 minutes of the Championship, facing a French side who have fallen far short of any standard set by any rugby pundit in Europe prior to the start of the tournament. Which is why it’s almost impossible to call this one beforehand.
For the Irish, it's all been a bit of a let-down. 50 minutes of near total rugby against Wales
promised so much for the tournament ahead, but that Simon Zebo heel flick seems
a long time ago now. Battered against
England in Dublin, inexplicably inaccurate against Scotland at Murrayfield,
Ireland are playing well and truly within themselves, with leaders such as
Jamie Heaslip and even the legend that is Brian O'Driscoll going missing for
long periods of the game, when they should be taking it by the scruff of the
neck. But it's not all bad – Luke
Marshall showed a lot of promise on his debut ,
Donnacha Ryan is a warrior in the loose and in Sean O'Brien they have
the top ball carrier in the Six Nations and a constant source of front foot
ball. The reality is that they are not a
million miles off being a good side - if the Irish can improve their accuracy
in promising situations, then they have the potential to decimate sides, as
they did to the Welsh.
For the French, some pride was restored with a gutsy and
aggressive performance (again for 50 minutes) against England at Twickenham,
following awful losses in Italy and at home to Wales. But they have a problem – and it's not even
on the field. Yes, I've made it clear
I'm not his biggest fan, but all the French issues fall at Philippe Saint Andre's
feet. Madly selecting form players out
of position and selecting out-of-form players in key spots like fly half, the
French game plan was always going to fall apart under pressure. And when he did eventually get the selection
right, the team actually looked half decent, surprise surprise. But the success and downright normalness of
that team clearly unnerved the ex-Toulon supremo, who then made the somewhat
questionable call of substituting nearly all his best players. Such randomness cannot be good for the mind
of this French side, who looked at one point like they might snatch a win at
Twickenham, applying immense pressure in defence and at the breakdown. How will their mindset be when they show up
in Dublin on Saturday? I'm not sure even
Saint-Andre knows…
Ireland Team News
Ireland make three changes to the side that fell to Scotland
last month with Cian Healy returning from suspension to prop at the expense of
Tom Court, winger Fergus McFadden stepping in for the injured Craig Gilroy and
lock Mike McCarthy getting the nod over Donncha O'Callaghan. Paddy Jackson has
shaken off a minor hamstring injury to retain the No.10 shirt with Ian Madigan
set to provide cover on the bench.
Starting Line up: Rob
Kearney; Fergus McFadden, Brian O'Driscoll, Luke Marshall, Keith Earls; Paddy
Jackson, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Mike Ross; Mike McCarthy,
Donnacha Ryan; Peter O'Mahony, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip (capt).
Subs: Sean
Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne, Stephen Archer, Donncha O'Callaghan, Iain Henderson, Eoin
Reddan, Ian Madigan, Luke Fitzgerald.
Key Player
Jamie Heaslip. Once
again the big Leinster number 8 and captain has to make a step up. He's been seriously sub-par by his standards
lately, making less than 1.5 metres per carry on average, and it was surprising
to hear him state he was pretty happy with his form. Well I'm bloody well not, Jamie, and I'm not
even an Irishman. Heaslip at his best is
the perfect combination between an old-school bruising enforcer of a number 8
and the new breed of athletic machine, and Ireland desperately need him to hit
his straps on Saturday and make Michalak wish he'd never been born. It's time for Heaslip to do what he's
supposed to as captain – lead.
France Team News
Saint-Andre has done it again. Furious at Francois Trinh-Duc's composed,
reliable and mature display against England, the head coach has called upon the
services of scrum half Frederic Michalak at 10, despite the Toulon man not
impressing so far this tournament. Winger
Maxime Medard is also set to make his first Test appearance for over a year
having battled back from a knee injury with Benjamin Fall missing out
altogether. Elsewhere, Florian Fritz is preferred at outside centre with
Mathieu Bastareaud, who has a 'niggle' (if Bastareaud can have one of those)
dropping to the bench.
Starting Line
up: Yoann Huget; Vincent Clerc,
Florian Fritz, Wesley Fofana, Maxime Medard; Frederik Michalak, Morgan Parra;
Thomas Domingo, Benjamin Kayser, Nicolas Mas; Christophe Samson, Yoann Maestri;
Yannick Nyanga, Thierry Dusautoir (capt), Louis Picamoles.
Subs: Guilhem
Guirado, Vincent Debaty, Luc Ducalcon, Sebastien Vahaamahina, Antonie Claasen,
Maxime Machenaud, Francois Trinh-Duc, Mathieu Bastareaud.
Key Player
Louis Picamoles. At
times he's seemed like a one-man pack – whilst the rest of the French side has
been mentally off puffing cigarettes and drinking chardonnay, the big Toulouse
number 8 has been crashing through tackles and levelling anyone stupid enough
to run at him. Against England, he was a
huge part of why the French were edging the contest at half time and it was
only when the men in white cut off possession to Les Bleus and started running
in the wider channels (away from him) that they started to pull away and negate
his impact. He, like Heaslip, will be charged
with getting his hands on the ball as much as possible and helping to make the
opposition fly half's life hell.
Key Battle
Paddy Jackson v Freddie Michalak. As you may have guessed from the above, I was
pretty close to picking the two number 8s, but we all know it is going to come
down to two men with pretty fragile confidence levels at the moment. Although they are nearly at opposite ends of
their careers, they will be sharing an identical mindset – Jackson struggled
with his goalkicking and made several errors on his debut a fortnight ago,
whilst Michalak has just been lethargically poor and out of position at 10, a
decade since he first broke into the French side. Both men will have to play with more
confidence and urgency than they've shown to unleash the talented runners
outside them, and they have to show they can control their nerves when
attempting to keep the scoreboard ticking over with the boot; the winner of
this little contest may well decide the game.
No pressure then.
Head to Head
·
Ireland have won only one of their last 13
matches v France and just five of their last 42 meetings since 1975.
·
France last lost six in a row in the 5/6 Nations
between 1957-58. They last lost all their matches in 1957, and were last
winless in 1969 (D1, L3).
·
Ireland have lost back-to-back 6N games for the
first time since 2008. They last lost three in a row in 1998.
Prediction
I think the French took a step up against England, but
losing is a quick and easy habit to pick up.
I can see a scrappy game with both sides desperate for the win, but the
Dublin factor will be key and I expect to see the men in green edge it. Ireland by 3 points.
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