Six Nations Preview - Scotland v Wales

It's amazing what 160 minutes of rugby can do to your confidence, and that of a nation.  Post round 1 of the Six Nations, Scotland had slumped to heavy defeat at Twickenham – their 4th successive loss, following a whitewash in the Autumn (including a shock defeat to Tonga) – and the fans were bracing themselves for another spring of discontent that would be measured as a success if they could avoid retaining the wooden spoon.  Instead, a sparky performance against Italy at Murrayfield and a resilient home win against the Irish have changed all that, proving to be as refreshing for the nation as a northerly wind briskly breezing up a kilt.  Whispers of "Fortress Murrayfield" have been uttered, with suggestions even of a Championship win should England falter elsewhere.  Yes, those north of the wall have found, for the first time in what feels like a decade, a reason to be fairly optimistic about their side's outlook for this tournament.

As for the Welsh, well, following their results is like watching a yo-yoing tournament at Caerphilly youth club.  A glorious Grand Slam in 2012 was followed by an unbelievable 8 successive defeats, including 5 on the trot at the Millennium Stadium, before scrappy but impressive victories against the French in Paris and the Italians in Rome seemed to wake Welsh spirits.  Now, all eyes are on what is already being billed as a 'Championship Decider' by the Welsh press against England in Cardiff, with the belief that a  Welsh side packed with talent is, now a few absentees have returned, about to start hitting its stride.

Now, the above may seem overly hopeful – but one of them is right, and the other is dead wrong; there's a thin line between optimism and delusion.  The Welsh haven't really cut loose yet – but they have grabbed victories in Paris and Rome, two very difficult places to win – whilst the Scots have been surviving matches on less than 40% possession.  There is no question that neither of these sides are currently at their best, but it is this that makes Saturday's contest so intriguing – whoever wins will find themselves in a 2-way battle for the Championship in all likelihood (assuming England beat Italy) and any confidence, no matter how exaggerated it seems now, will be entirely justified.

If Scotland are to win they simply have to start retaining the ball more effectively.  Their defence has been admirable, especially against the Irish, but they will only be able to stand up to so much when the Welsh are throwing their power runners at them.  If they can attack the rucks on their ball with the same ferocity they do without it – led by the superb Kelly Brown – they will take a big stride towards winning the game and getting the ball into the hands of their rapid, and criminally underused, back 3.  For the Welsh, it's a case of loosening the straps a bit.  The win against the French was a performance stifled by pressure, whilst in Rome it was the weather that put a stopper on any notion of enterprising rugby.  Now they have a chance to get back to their best against a Scotland side who have been handing teams possession on a plate recently – if they can utilise this effectively, taking advantage of quick ball created by their centres and bring George North and Alex Cuthbert in off the wings, then I can see them grabbing a big score.

Early confidence is key for these two sides, but who is going to continue living the dream, and who is going to be rudely awakened by an unhealthy dose of reality?

Scotland Team News

Glasgow Warriors stand-off Duncan Weir will make his first start for Scotland, with the 21-year-old, whose three previous caps have all come as a replacement, replacing club-mate Ruaridh Jackson. The other change to the side that beat Ireland last month sees Euan Murray return at tight-head prop with Geoff Cross dropping to the bench.  Uncapped Glasgow number eight Ryan Wilson also comes onto the bench.

Starting Line up:  Stuart Hogg, Sean Maitland, Sean Lamont, Matt Scott, Tim Visser, Duncan Weir, Greig Laidlaw; Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Euan Murray, Richie Gray, Jim Hamilton, Robert Harley, Kelly Brown (Capt), Johnnie Beattie

Subs: Dougie Hall, Moray Low, Geoff Cross, Alastair Kellock, Ryan Wilson, Henry Pyrgos, Ruaridh Jackson, Max Evans

Key Player

Duncan Weir.  As with Paddy Jackson last week, all eyes will be on the new fly half at Murrayfield.  Weir may have 3 caps but this is his first start and he will be hoping it goes better than it did for his Irish counterpart last week.  The Glasgow man is a nuggety player with good feet and is difficult to put down – he'll need to have the confidence to take the ball up to the line and challenge the Welsh defence, with the likes of Johnnie Beattie and Sean Lamont supporting on his shoulder.  The pressure of goal-kicking and, I suspect, the majority of the tactical kicking, is with Greg Laidlaw, so Weir can focus on doing what he does best – creating gaps for others.

 

Wales Team News

Wales have made three changes for their Six Nations trip to Scotland, with Sam Warburton and Alun Wyn Jones taking over from Justin Tipuric and Andrew Coombs respectively.  Paul James is named at loose-head prop for the injured Gethin Jenkins , who has not recovered from a calf problem.  Coach Rob Howley has attempted to ease the pressure on Sam Warburton by keeping Ryan Jones as his captain.

Starting Line up:  Leigh Halfpenny; Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North, Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips; Paul James, Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones, Alun Wyn Jones, Ian Evans, Ryan Jones (Capt), Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau

Subs: Ken Owens, Scott Andrews, Ryan Bevington, Andrew Coombs, Justin Tipuric, Lloyd Williams, James Hook, Scott Williams

Key Player

Alun Wyn Jones.  The returning ex-captain has been hugely missed by a Welsh pack struggling for confidence.  The British and Irish Lion is a combative character who lends aggression and a good deal of intelligence to the side in the loose, as well as being an effective lineout operator.  The man he's replacing, Andrew Coombs, has filled in admirably, but the Ospreys man has a presence and intensity about him that can lift others.  If Wales are to dominate at Murrayfield, the big lock will have to be at his abrasive best to defeat Scottish giants Jim Hamilton and Richie Gray in the second row.

 

Key Battle

Kelly Brown v Sam Warburton.  Who else?  The Scottish captain has been in magnificent form this tournament, topping the turnover and tackling charts and throwing his name into the mix for Lions selection in the process.  With Chris Robshaw seemingly nailed on for at least a squad-spot too, his opposite number, Sam Warburton, may well be fighting for just a place on the plane, when 12 months ago it appeared he was the Lions captain in waiting.  Aside from the personal implications riding on the outcome of this battle, the victor will prove pivotal for his side's success.  Brown must be at his best to disrupt Welsh possession whilst Warburton will be hunting him down to nullify the Scotsman's effect – if the Welsh backline get quick go forward ball, it could be a long afternoon for the locals at Murrayfield.

Head to Head

·         Wales have won their last four away matches in the Six Nations

·         If Scotland win on Saturday, it will be the first time they have registered three wins on the bounce in the Five/Six Nations since 1996

·         Scotland have just won one of their last 10 matches against Wales (since 2003) and have lost their most recent 5 encounters, with their latest win over the men in red coming in the 2007 tournament.

Prediction

I think the Scots will put up a great resistance at home and will frustrate the Welsh – for a while.  I just can't look past how ineffective the Scottish have been at looking after the ball, even against Italy, and I don't know if they will have had enough time to rectify this rather important issue.  I expect Wales to be far more clinical than Ireland and come away with the win.  Wales by 9.