Six Nations Preview - Wales v England

Ah, the theatre of sport.  In the days of modern press and journalism, everyone loves an excuse to stir things up as much as possible – it’s all part of creating the characters we associate with.  Yes, the characters.  With so much coverage and in depth analysis into teams both on and off the pitch, the modern game of rugby now sits only behind Eastenders and Coronation Street in terms of daily drama in the build up to a big game.  Some journalists are adept at twisting words to create the story we all want to hear – this week George North says that he wants a ‘bloodbath’ against England (he simply said that he expected a physical encounter), Andy Farrell said his side don’t fear the Millennium Stadium (he only mentioned his side would enjoy the experience) whilst Ian Evans has declared that all the pressure is on England for Saturday’s match...OK, in fairness, Evans did actually spout that rubbish.

And try as we might to say it won’t make a difference to what happens on the pitch, we have to accept that it will.  Remember when Ben Foden called Wales ‘England’s little brother’ 2 years ago?  That did not go down too well with the Welsh.  Stephen Jones lined him up in the first minute and went to absolutely smash him.  Unfortunately this didn’t go all that well for Jones.  But you can see that all this hyperbole spouted about in the papers does go to drive an even more tribal atmosphere in big games like this.
 

 

It’s not like Wales will need any motivation though.  After a terrible run of 8 straight defeats, the men in red have won their last 3 matches without conceding a try to give themselves a great crack at the title,  which they can grab by winning by more than 7 points (or 7 exactly, if they hold their try-scoring advantage).  That said, I’m of the impression that there’s been too much hype once again about this side.  They’ve won 3 tricky matches, sure, but none of them have been with particular attacking verve (although the weather has been a factor) or ambition, which is a shame when you see what talent out wide they possess.  Once again they will need to engineer some momentum if they are to play to their potential and that means getting their centres and Faletau over the gainline as much as possible and bringing Cuthbert and North into the game, who have been isolated all too often.

 

For England, it is a case of back to the drawing board.  Fine wins against Scotland and Ireland were followed up by disappointing home showings against France and Italy, who both upped their games for the Twickenham encounters.  Worryingly, they have only scored 1 try in their last 3 games, but crucially they have still been getting the wins.  Tuilagi will have a huge job to do for England – the centre has a real point to prove against his illustrious opposition and has beaten more defenders than the rest of the Welsh and English centres put together.  He will need to attack the 10 channel with vigour if England are to get go forward; like Wales, England play a game focused heavily on building momentum.

 

It’s encouraging to see that both sides have picked fairly lightweight and mobile backrows, which means that we will hopefully be seeing the ball chucked wide a bit more than we have been used to seeing, with North, Cuthbert, Ashton and Brown getting possession in space.  There are just so many intriguing and tight match ups that it’s almost impossible to go through them all, let alone pick a winner (my mind changed about 5 times before I wrote my prediction), but there is one certainty.

 

This will be tribal.  This, in George North’s “words”, will be a bloodbath.

 

Wales Team News

 

Gethin Jenkins will become Wales' third captain of this year's Six Nations having recovered from a calf strain and reclaimed his place at loose-head prop. He takes the captaincy from flanker Ryan Jones who has been sidelined with a shoulder injury. Justin Tipuric is promoted to openside in Jones' absence with Sam Warburton switching to blindside flanker.

 

Starting Line up: L Halfpenny; A Cuthbert, J Davies, J Roberts, G North; D Biggar, M Phillips; G Jenkins (capt), R Hibbard, A Jones, A-W Jones, I Evans, S Warburton, J Tipuric, T Faletau.

Subs: K Owens, P James, S Andrews, A Coombs, A Shingler, L Williams, J Hook, S Williams.

 

Key Player

 

Jamie Roberts.  Will the real Jamie Roberts please stand up?  The big Cardiff blue, who I’m unashamed to confess I have a man crush on (how can someone be such a nice bloke, an international rugby player and a doctor?!), has been almost anonymous this Championship.  I say almost, because the only times he has been noticeable it’s been because of handling errors.  Wales need to bring him in as a first receiver more off the set piece and just throw him over that gainline – the Welsh thrive on momentum and against the centre duo of Barritt and Tuilagi, the big man will have to run harder than he ever has done before.

 

England Team News

 

England have made four changes to the side that edged out Italy in their last clash. A fit-again Farrell reclaims the No.10 shirt with Toby Flood dropping to the bench while Ben Youngs replaces Danny Care at scrum-half. Joe Marler gets the nod ahead of Mako Vunipola at loose-head prop while Tom Croft will make his first Test start in a year at blindside with James Haskell dropping to the bench from where he is poised to win his 50th cap.

 

Starting Line up: Alex Goode; Chris Ashton, Manu Tuilagi, Brad Barritt, Mike Brown; Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Joe Launchbury, Geoff Parling, Tom Croft, Chris Robshaw (capt), Tom Wood

 Subs: Dylan Hartley, David Wilson, Mako Vunipola, Courtney Lawes, James Haskell, Danny Care, Toby Flood, Billy Twelvetrees

 

Key Player

 

Tom Croft.  For me, this is a really interesting selection as it shows where England are going to want to be attacking.  Haskell is unlucky to be benched because he has had a solid tournament – and he will no doubt have a big part to play – but Croft is a huge lineout presence and will pressurise the occasionally flakey Hibbard whilst giving go-to ball to his own hooker, Tom Youngs.  He is also that bit more effective in the wider channels where he can really gallop, and that shows that England will be wanting to play with a lot of tempo and width.  Croft may have a key role to play in dominating the Welsh set piece and the breakdown away from the centre of the pitch.

 

Key Battle

 

Sam Warburton v Chris Robshaw.  Who else?  Despite the fact that Saturday will bring battles for Lions shirts such as Jones v Cole, Phillips v Youngs, Roberts v Barritt, Davies v Tuilagi and North v Ashton, it is these 2 who will arguably have the most critical roles to play.  If you had said a year ago that Chris Robshaw would be a leading candidate to captain the Lions and Sam Warburton was doubted a place in the squad, people would have laughed at you.  Both sides will have an important job to play on the floor because both sides like to build up momentum through big, powerful runners, and if they are to be stopped the flankers will need to be getting their hands dirty, slowing the ball down.  Warburton can prove that he once again is back to being the class operator we know he can be,  whilst Robshaw can silence his doubters (many of them in Wales) once and for all and show everyone he is now a genuine openside.

Head to Head

 

·         Wales have not won at the Millennium Stadium in their last 5 attempts, but have won 8 of their last 9 Six Nations Matches. 

 

·         England are going for their first Grand Slam in a decade but are now 5 games unbeaten and have won their last 5 away matches in the Six Nations. 

 

·         Out of the last 10 Six Nations matches between the 2 sides, both teams have won 5 matches each, but Wales have won 4 out the last 6

Prediction

 

Yikes.  Who the hell has the guts to call this?  I think we’ll see an enthrallingly intense spectacle, and a couple of tries as well, but I wander if playing at home following 3 away victories may in fact give Wales an extra lift, whereas before it would have been a burden.  I have a feeling that we may end up with a result that nobody is elated by, where Wales win by less than 7 points, denying England the Grand Slam but still providing them with the Championship.  Wales by 3.

 

PS  It's been brought to my attention that innocent abandoned doggies - as seen here - are keen supporters of England's Grand Slam bid.  Which leads me to believe that a Welsh victory will deny these dogs a home.  Can you bring yourself to support a country that actively tries to prevent the rehoming of puppies?!