Autumn International Preview - England v New Zealand

I've had every reason to be happy over the last week.  England picked up a win, I've moved to a lovely new city, work is good and the weather has been clear and sunny for the most part – happy days indeed.  But there is a dark cloud moving rapidly closer on the horizon, and I'm not talking about my first council tax bill.  No, the All Blacks have landed in London under the banner of 'the most dominant team in the history of the world' and are licking their lips as the prospect of gaining revenge against an England side who administered them a thorough and entirely surprising spanking at Twickenham last year.  Is the reference to dominance a sign of arrogance?  No, it's realism.  It's expectation.  It's world-class performance, time and again.

On paper, England have every right to be nervous going into this game.  Through injury, they have been shorn of their two most potent attacking weapons – Alex Corbisiero and Manu Tuilagi.  Both men were instrumental in their 38 – 21 win last year, with Corbisiero and Dan Cole dominating their opposite numbers at scrum time and Tuilagi causing chaos for Dan Carter and co in the backline.  The absence of those 2 British & Irish Lions, plus 3 others in the shapes of Mako Vunipola, Tom Croft and Brad Barritt, have severely tested England's resources.

England themselves have not been severely tested this autumn.  Sure, the Australia game was close but they looked comfortable throughout, and the same could be said for their display against the Pumas.  In both games, the men in white have put together a 40 minute showing of semi-coherent rugby, combined with another half of dour performance that makes your average paint-drying competition look like a JJ Abrams Epic.  A large part of that mediocrity, to be fair, has been limited to the backline (with the exception of the industrious Mike Brown) which has appeared for the large part as threatening as Mother Theresa.  The prime example for this average-ness is Joel Tomkins, although it is perhaps unfair to single one person out.  He's not powerful enough to break tackles, he's not quick enough to get around them, and he doesn't have the feet to bamboozle them.  Simply put, he is not a threat.  He is of course not helped by some listless drifting by Owen Farrell and Billy Twelvetrees and occasional indecisiveness from Lee Dickson, but if England are to stand a chance against the World Champions they will need to go back to basics and run hard, straight running lines to fix defenders.

New Zealand, on the other hand, have no such problems out wide, with the only area of question being Ben Smith filling the 13 shirt when he is usually a full back or wing.  But even that transition seems to have been seamless.  They're coming off a fairly handy record of played 33, won 31, drawn 1 and lost 1.  The conveyor of quality All Black sides and players continues to roll, but the dominance of this particular outfit cannot be underestimated.  Take a look at their game at Ellis Park against South Africa in the Rugby Championship.  South Africa played stupendously well – relentlessly physical and aggressive, fast and clinical – and yet the All Blacks still managed to raise the game to the point where they won one of the best matches I've ever seen fairly comfortably.  No other side could even have come close to South Africa that day.

So how are an injury ravaged and apparently uninspired England team to take on 'the most dominant team in the history of the world'?  I think it's time to revert to type.  Don't get wrong, I'd love to see the hosts chucking the ball wide and into space at the weekend, but the sad truth is that they don't have the players to worry the Kiwis, especially with Marland Yarde and Christian Wade injured, and Kyle Eastmond strangely ignored.  What England do have, though, is a damned fine pack that, on their day, can match and even bully anyone.  With Robshaw, Wood and Launchbury the workhorses, and Vunipola, Lawes and Hartley the tough ball carriers, England can physically dominate sides when in the right frame of mind.  And with the return of Dan Cole, a man who has repeatedly caused problems for Tony Woodcock, they may have half an eye on getting on top in the set piece too.  Saturday is a day for physicality, aggression, scrummaging, and intelligent kicking – not for trying to be flash.  Dominate up front, and there may just be a glimmer of a chance.

So when the All Blacks line up for their haka, the most dominant team in the world will be marking Twickenham as their turf.  I'd love to see the England pack walk up to the halfway and let them know they will not be moved.  Because we are in the calm before the storm right now – and the All Blacks will be desperate to show that lightening doesn't strike twice.

England Team News

Stuart Lancaster has made just one change to the side that put away Argentina last week.  British and Irish Lion Dan Cole starts at tight-head prop in place of David Wilson, who drops to the bench.  Loose-head prop Joe Marler is fit again after suffering concussion, while hooker Dylan Hartley wins his 50th cap after seeing off the challenge of Tom Youngs.   Wasps prop Matt Mullan is among the replacements, and could win his second cap, while Ben Youngs returns for Danny Care as the replacement scrum-half.   Only seven of the team started the surprise 38-21 win over the All Blacks at Twickenham in December last year.

Starting Line-up: Mike Brown; Chris Ashton, Joel Tomkins, Billy Twelvetrees, Ben Foden; Owen Farrell, Lee Dickson; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole; Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes; Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (captain), Billy Vunipola

Subs: Tom Youngs, Matt Mullan, Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Ben Morgan, Ben Youngs, Toby Flood, Alex Goode

Key Player

Dan Cole.  He may resemble Victor Meldrew on steroids, but there's a reason that Dan Cole is one of England's most experienced players, despite only making his debut in 2010.  An increasingly powerful presence in the set piece and a jackal over the ball at ruck time, he's become the cornerstone of England's pack to the point where Lancaster realised he's becoming over reliant on the Tigers man.  He's been in impressive scrummaging form this season after taking a couple of games to get to grips with the new rules, and in fact had the upper hand on fellow Lion Alex Corbisiero when Leicester and Northampton met earlier this year. Key to Saturday, however, is that Cole has generally always been on top whenever he has met loosehead Tony Woodcock previously.  That battle will be absolutely crucial if England are to have a hope in hell of winning this game.  Deprive the All Blacks of set piece ball and, provided you don't kick loosely to Israel Dagg and co at the back, then you shut their threat down at source.

New Zealand Team News

Fly-half Dan Carter will become the fifth All Black to win 100 caps after being named in the New Zealand starting XV to face England on Saturday.  The 31-year-old, who made his Test debut in 2003, is the world's leading Test points scorer with 1435.  He follows Richie McCaw, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock and Mils Muliaina in reaching 100 caps for the All Blacks.  Winger Julian Savea comes in to face England, the only change from the team that beat France 26-19 last weekend.   Savea missed that victory with illness but returns on the left wing, with Charles Piutau switching to the right and Cory Jane, who started his first Test of the year in Paris after a knee injury, dropping out of the match-day squad.  Among the replacements, lock Luke Romano comes in for back-rower Sam Cane to strengthen the All Blacks' second-row options.

Starting Line-up:  Israel Dagg; Charles Piutau, Ben Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea; Dan Carter, Aaron Smith; Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Liam Messam, Richie McCaw (captain), Kieran Read.

Subs: Dane Coles, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumuina, Luke Romano, Steven Luatua, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Aaron Cruden, Ryan Crotty.

Key Player

Liam Messam.  I was going to pick Dan Carter, but against an inexperienced England backline the new centurion should have no problems unlocking the defence with the vastly experienced and talented men outside him – provided he gets good ball.  Instead, I've gone for Liam Messam, who is very much the enforcer of the backrow.  He takes little in the way of plaudits, but Messam is a wrecking ball of a blindside who loves nothing more than crashing into tackles and breakdowns to help his side gain the physical upper hand.  Against South Africa, he was utterly immense, and he will know that England's only chance of winning will be to physically dominate the Kiwis like they did last year.  Messam will be determined not to let that happen again.

Key Battle

Chris Robshaw v Richie McCaw.  I almost resent picking two sevens as the key battle, as it almost seems lazy; the sort of thing Dewi Morris would do on Sky Sports before sitting back with undeservedly smug look on his face, as if he's just imparted some unfathomable wisdom.  But, in this case, it's impossible to look past the mouth-watering clash between the 2 captains.  Robshaw and McCaw will be two of the key players in the all-important battle of the breakdown, with McCaw the long established master of this area.  However, look at the stats and you'll see that the argument that Robshaw isn't a 'true openside' doesn't have much traction.  In their last 10 Tests, McCaw has averaged just 0.2 more turnovers per game than Robshaw (1.6 to 1.4), whilst Robshaw makes more tackles, carries more often and for greater yardage.  So where is the real difference?  That is in the areas that can't be measured, the slow 'rolling away' in the tackle, the pushing of the offside line – all cheeky aspects of openside play that McCaw has mastered.  Both are great leaders of men, and you fancy whoever gets on top between these two will inspire his men to greater things, but if Robshaw wants to emerge victorious he will need to lose that 'good boy' persona and get a little bit nasty.

 

Prediction

Some England fans may be feeling (or clinging on to) a sense of deja vous going into this fixture.  One year ago, the hosts were written off prior to the World Champions arriving, and instead produced a complete performance to shock the rugby world (admittedly aided by some dodgy seafood).  To win this time around, they need to be damned near perfect – they have to dominate the set piece, dominate the breakdown, dominate the collisions and dominate territory with a strong kicking game.  England are capable of winning any one of those areas – but winning them all?  That's a real stretch, especially with injuries to key players.  The All Blacks look just too classy at the moment, and with revenge in their eyes I can see them turning over this brave, but limited, England side relatively comfortably.  But isn't that what we said last year…? New Zealand by 12.

Let's see what's happening in the other Autumn Internationals this weekend:

Italy v Fiji:  The Italians have been nothing short of terrible of late, losing badly in South Africa over the summer and now getting hammered at home against the Wallabies.  Fiji though have failed to kick on from their impressive form in 2007, and should represent a good opportunity for the hosts to finally pick up a win.  Italy by 9.

Scotland v South Africa:  Loyal Scottish fans may be dreaming of a repeat of their glorious win over the Springboks a couple of years ago, but under Heyneke Meyer they've become a much more rounded side and should have enough in the tank to see off a physical challenge from the hosts.  South Africa by 13.

Wales v Argentina:  Wales have an opportunity to get back to winning ways and should make the most of it against a deflated Argentinian side, but need to be wary of a backlash after captain Sam Warburton declared they were "too good" to lose to the Pumas.  Wales by 14.

Ireland v Australia:  Possibly the tightest game of the weekend to call.  Australia may have lost to England but have been looking resurgent of late and their last display against Italy certainly showed that their attacking game is on song.  Ireland have home backing though and the pack will fancy their chances at winning the collisions.  Ireland by 3.

France v Tonga:  Tonga will arrive in Paris looking to rattle a few ribcages but that's as far as they'll go.  The French showed a good amount of physicality and invention last weekend and they'll have too much for the Islanders.  France by 25.