Premiership Preview - Gloucester v Leicester Tigers

I must start with a sincere apology and an admission of a minor cock-up.  After promising a review of the Exeter v Saracens game last week, following my weekend excursion to road, I have failed to deliver after discovering that the game wasn't televised.   And with my home computer running at snail's pace, I was unable to watch the full game replay online and my attempts to do so in my open plan office led to frowns and the commencement of disciplinary action.  But life, and Premiership Rugby, goes on.

Actually, the prediction is that it will go off at Kingsholm tonight (see what I did there) as the Leicester Tigers rumble into town to take on Gloucester in a game that never fails to produce sparks, passion and drama.  The fact that these two sides aren't currently sitting in positions they'd hope to be in only lends to the sense of importance leading into this fixture – Gloucester are currently languishing in 10th spot when they should have had realistic hopes of a playoff spot, whilst Leicester – not helped by their worst injury-crisis in years and international call-ups – find themselves, unusually, drifting in mid-table obscurity.

It is worth pointing out that the Cherry and Whites have had their fair share of crocked key players too.  If you look at the pack – which has failed to perform this season – the absence of real rumblers such as Ben Morgan, Sione Kalamafoni and the wonderfully talented Akapusi Qera has shorn them of a dominant presence on the carry and in the tackle-area, although Matt Kvesic remains an intelligent operator and one to watch.  The set-piece, too, has been a major downfall for Nigel Davies' side, with the scrum proving to be as solid as a damp piece of paper.  Even the return of experienced prop, Nick Wood, has done little to stem the tidal wave of penalties that is conceded by the West Country outfit in this area.

But the backs, as has so often been the case for Gloucester sides over the last 5 years, are a different prospect entirely.  How a side can lose the likes of Charlie Sharples and James Simpson-Daniel and still field a backline capable of bamboozling even the most organised of defences is a testament to the quality that they have in their ranks.  Freddie Burns and Billy Twelvetrees are both developing into game-managers with strong kicking games, to complement their natural ability, whilst Henry Trinder and Jonny May are wonderfully balanced and supremely quick wingers who must be licking their lips at the thought of attacking a backline that, outside of the fly-half spot, is a cross between Leicester's 2nd and 3rd choice side.  With Adam Thompstone, in particular, looking vulnerable as a winger playing in an unfamiliar role, this is an area the home side have to exploit if they are to pick up a potentially season-changing win.  This doesn't mean run the ball from everywhere – but it does mean that high kicks and smart chases will be the best way to gain territory and regain possession with a backpeddling defence.  Leicester won't be easy to break at the set piece.

In a classic game of opposites, as mentioned above, the Tigers' backline is in complete disarray.  With certain starters Anthony Allen, Manu Tuilagi, Niall Morris, Niki Goneva and Matt Tait all out, as well as back-up outside centres Matt Smith, and Terence Hepetema, the reigning champions are having to push players into new positions to get a side out.  To be honest, I'm half tempted to bring my boots with me tonight, despite my crocked knee – apparently having only one working leg is par for the course for Tigers' backs these days.  But the net result of all these injuries and the enforced chopping and changing is that the Tigers' backs couldn't finish a roast dinner at the moment.  I can understand a slight bit of rustiness as new combinations are worked through, but the complete absence of understanding and fluency out wide is alarming for the visitors.

But, in true Leicester fashion, the pack can still win them a game.  With arguably the best scrum in the league, Tigers' top try scorer this season has been 'penalty'.  And with that scrum, they can still hope to win this game, by denying the Cherry and Whites any platform at all and physically dominating them with their bigger pack, which has proven to be the Achilles heel of this Gloucester side all season.   Unfortunately for the hosts, their best scrummager, Nick Wood, has never fared well against Dan Cole and it is with some confidence that I predict at least one yellow card for the hosts in the scrum tonight – they've struggled that much.

It all builds nicely to a game that looks to have everything – two of England's biggest and proudest clubs, both desperate for a win, both riddled with injuries and both with completely different tactics for winning this game.  Gloucester will be the crowd-pleasers, and the risk takers, but Leicester will be the pragmatic, the dogged, the bullies.  Flair vs ferocity.  Expect fireworks.

 

Gloucester Team News

Gloucester make five changes to the side beaten by Harlequins last weekend as they look to end a run of four successive Premiership defeats.   Winger Shane Monahan comes in for his first start of the season, replacing the injured Charlie Sharples.

Starting Line up:  Cook; Monahan, Trinder, Twelvetrees, May; Burns, Robson; Wood, Dawidiuk, Knight; Lokotui, Hudson; Savage (capt), Kvesic, Mordan.

Subs: Edmonds, Y. Thomas, Harden, Stooke, Cox, Cowan, Tindall, M. Thomas.

Key Player

Nick Wood.  Gloucester's experienced and most effective set-piece operator has long been lauded by the Kingsholm faithful as an unsung hero and somebody wrongly overlooked by the England selectors.  Personally, I've never seen it.  There's no doubt he's an impressively mobile prop, and against your average Premiership-standard prop he can do a decent job in the scrum – but he struggles against top internationals.  And against Dan Cole, a 3-Test British and Irish Lion, he certainly has his work cut out.  His track record against Leicester is not good but if the hosts are to have any hope of unleashing their gloriously talented outside backs, Wood simply has to help find a way to stop their scrum from imploding.  How he does that will be up to him – scrummage high, scrummage low, scrummage sideways, blatantly cheat…whatever works.  His resistance is that important to the Gloucester cause.

Leicester Team News

United States winger Blaine Scully and Argentina prop Marcos Ayerza both return to the Leicester line-up following international duty.   Adam Thompstone replaces the injured Matt Smith at centre.  Javiah Pohe could make his Premiership debut off the bench – keep an eye out for the powerful young centre.

Starting Line up:  Hamilton; Scully, Thompstone, Bowden, Benjamin; Flood (capt), B. Youngs; Ayerza, T. Youngs, Cole; Deacon, Kitchener; Gibson, Salvi, Waldrom.

Subs: Briggs, Stankovich, Balmain, De Chaves, Crane, Harrison, Williams, Pohe.

Key Player

Dan Bowden.  There's no doubting the Kiwi's talent and in fact, those in the know often speak of him as having one of the best passes in the Premiership.  But either he is not playing to his potential, or Tigers aren't using him in the correct way, but it isn't working for him at the moment.  He needs to start becoming a more direct presence – whilst still maintaining his slick hands – for Toby Flood to pivot off, otherwise the backs tend to drift listlessly across the pitch with nobody fixing their defenders.  He also, in particular for this game, needs to become more vocal, especially with a part-time outside centre paired next to him.  His ability to organise and martial both attack and defence will be key against an accomplished Leicester backline, but if he gets it working, you never know – the likes of Adam Thompstone and Miles Benjamin may just get a chance to stretch their legs.

 

Key Battle

Freddie Burns v Toby Flood.  The two England back-ups both have their own reasons for feeling aggrieved at not being more involved during the autumn, but this is the perfect chance to show Stuart Lancaster what he's missing – at the other's expense.  They will, of course, be having to orchestrate entirely different tactical games, with Burns having to kick well for his chasers and move the ball wide with speed and accuracy, whilst Flood will be probing the corners relentlessly to give the Leicester set piece the chance to break down the hosts' lineout.  But these are two good, attacking fly halves – who should be England's number one and two (in either order) in my opinion – and if the chance comes for them to take a gap themselves, you can bet they won't need a second invitation. 

PS As an interesting sub-plot, the rumours are the Flood has all but signed for a French/Japanese side next year, leaving a fairly large gap in the 10 shirt for the biggest club in England.  With Owen Williams deemed too inexperienced and Ryan Lamb seen to be too, well, Ryan Lamb, who could the Tigers possibly set their sights on?  You guessed it, Freddie Burns, if various sources are to be relieved.

Prediction

Backline flair v Forward power – I know which one the neutral would like to see come out on top.  But the rugby purist will acknowledge the bizarre beauty of a rolling maul, as well as that of a breathtaking counter attack, and the talents of both these sides in their respective departments makes this a very tricky game to call.  If Gloucester can gain just a foothold, or at least parity, in the set-piece and physical exchanges in the loose, then the game is theirs for the taking with the talent they have at their disposal.  However, this Leicester pack loves the backs-against-the-wall mentality and I can see a brutal forwards effort grinding out a win, as well as a not-so-popular penalty try or two.  A close one, but a vital win for the visitors is on the cards.  Tigers by 5.

What else is occurring across the premiership this weekend?

London Irish v London Wasps:  With both sides struggling to pick up wins, they'll be looking at this fixture as one to give their season a boost.  The loss of Marland Yarde is huge for Irish, and I have a feeling that Christian Wade may just find some joy on the wide Reading pitch.  Wasps by 8.

Saracens v Sale Sharks:  Sale look like an entirely different proposition this season than last, thanks in part to an apparently reinvented Danny Cipriani.  Sarries though will be confident at home and, given their record, rightfully so.  Sarries by 12.

Worcester Warriors v Northampton Saints: Dean Ryan's men remain winless and it's hard to see them doing any better against one of the in-form teams in the premiership.  Saints' pack and firepower out wide should see them cruise to victory.  Saints by 16.

Bath v Exeter Chiefs:  In a cracking West Country derby, the ever resilient Chiefs take on a Bath side on their best run of form for years.  Home advantage and, more importantly, confidence will be the key factors here in a win for the hosts.  Bath by 7.

Newcastle Falcons v Harlequins:  Dean Richards faces his old side for the first time since 'that day' on Sunday.  I should imagine that any pride Deano has in seeing the revolution he started at Quins will be quickly wiped away as the Londoners pick up a hard fought victory up north.  Quins by 6.