Saturday 12 September 2015

RuckedOver's World Cup Preview - Pool C


Pool C

Running through the Pools so far, we've had the Pool A, the Pool of Death, and Pool B, the Pool of Pain.  Which reminds me of a pair of death metal albums I may have listened to in my angsty years.  Slightly less sinister, however, is Pool C which - on first reflection - looks like being this year's Pool of Points and sounding much more like a wacky game show than a heavy metal record.  The simple reason for this is that it's by far the most "top heavy" of any of the groups - here you have the reigning Champions, the World's best side for the last 7 years, the indomitable All Blacks; and way beneath them you'll find the promising but limited Argentinians, the big-hitting and entertaining Tongans, the physical Georgians and the full-hearted Namibians...who are ultimately cannon fodder.  That's the first impression, but is it a realistic one?

New Zealand

Coach:  Steve Hansen.  Maybe try smiling for once, Steve.  Oh no, that's OK, you're probably upset because you're the world number one side and have picked up three Rugby Championship titles in your last four seasons.  The fact that you went unbeaten in 2013 probably really irks you as well.  Yep, Steve has well and truly stepped out of the shadow of his predecessor, Graham Henry, to continue this phenomenal generation of All Black success - and, although he suffered a blip this year, losing to Australia to miss out on another Rugby Championship - grumpy Steve doesn't suffer failure lightly, ensuring his side delivered a revenge mauling in the return fixture.

Captain:  Richie McCaw.  The world's most capped player, arguably the world's greatest ever flanker.  So, yeah, he can play a bit.  He isn't in his prime any more at 34, but he's shown enough this season - two years after taking a well-earned sabbatical - to demonstrate that he can still really mix it with the best.  Over the ball, he's still one of the best in the business and never hesitates to lead from the front, with all the experience and guile that 142 international caps - 100 as skipper - gives you.

Key Player:  Brodie Retallick.  Out of nowhere, big old Brodie is deemed to be one of the best players in the world right now, having won World Player of the Year in 2014...an incredible feat for a tight forward.  Yes, he may look like 'Lurch' from the Adams Family, but the Chiefs' lock is a smart operator in the lineout and a deceptively powerful presence with the ball in hand, and his energy around the park sometimes makes you wonder if there is more than one of him on the field.  Which is a horrifying thought.  In many ways, it is Retallick's consistent dominance that sets the platform for All Black success.

Watch Out For:  Nehe Milner-Skudder.  The conveyor belt of outrageously good Kiwi wings just keeps on rolling.  Whilst most opposition players may be eyeing the human wrecking ball that is Julian Savea as the primary weapon, they'd do well not to take their eyes off the Hurricanes' own pocket-rocket.  A phenomenal breakthrough season for the young winger, he offers electric acceleration and a mind-bending sidestep on the other wing - bringing good balance to the side.  Also keep an eye-out for the Highlanders' Fijian born magician, Waisake Naholo - and magic is probably the right word, after the winger allegedly visited a witch doctor in order to heal from a broken leg in just three months to be fit for the World Cup.

Strengths:  Experience.  Look down that line-up and you'll see some familiar faces - Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealumu, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith are all world-class operatives who have been doing the business for years and years.  They are masters of their trade and, although they may no longer be in their physical prime, they know every trick in the book and can deal with all the pressure thrown their way.  Which, at a World Cup, will be a lot.  Their likely first choice starting line-up, for example, will contain 8 of the starting side which won the 2011 prize and, with a large portion of the other squad members having been in that victorious squad as well, they know what they need to do to win.

Weaknesses:  Er...age.  In an odd way, their biggest strength could also be their biggest weakness.  I've been waiting for years, thinking that, any moment now, age will catch up with the grizzled All Black veterans and they'll start to creak and wilt.  But no such luck - well, certainly not on a regular basis.  However, the fact remains that this New Zealand side may be the smartest side on the planet, which trumps all, but they are by no means the strongest or the fastest...or even the fittest.  The All Blacks love to dictate the tempo and only up the pace when it suits them - if another side takes control and plays with pace and aggression, it'll be interesting to see if the champs can handle it.

Prospects:  Well, they'll stroll through their group at a bit of a canter, with due respect to their opponents, which will serve as a pleasant warm-up to some of the tougher tests which will lie ahead.  The All Blacks have only ever lost to South Africa, Australia, England, Wales and France in international rugby, so it would take a monumental effort from the Pumas to threaten their top spot, and I just don't see any sort of shock of that magnitude happening.  They are favourites - and rightfully so - but the only seeds of doubt would have been planted in an underwhelming display in Samoa and a defeat in Australia, which remains the worst New Zealand display I can remember.  If those creaks become cracks, then their crown is up for taking - but I wouldn't bet on that yet.


Argentina

Coach:  Daniel Hourcade.  Not well known in these parts but an Argentinian rugby man through and through, having done his bit on the domestic club circuit but also gaining coaching experience in South Africa and France to.  Now he's been in charge of the national side since 2013, he can be pretty pleased with his side having picked up their first ever Rugby Championship win at home to Australia in 2014 (their first over the Wallabies in 17 years) and their first ever win over South Africa in the Springboks' own back yard just a few months ago.  Wins over Italy and France last autumn solidified his team's reputation as a force to be reckoned with, and he goes into this year's tournament with a burgeoning reputation, despite having lego-man hair.

Captain:  Agustin Creevy,  Right, I have to admit I never used to rate Creevy.  In fact, I thought he was pants.  He never looked that sharp for Worcester and, whenever I watched him for the Pumas, he just seemed to spend his time dropping the ball or throwing it in straight to the opposition.  But that was a couple of years ago, and boy is he repaying the coaches' faith now.  His set piece has tightened right up, but it is his work around the park that makes him such a natural leader in this Pumas pack - it's like having an extra flanker over the ball.  A powerful carrier, too, he's yet another name to add to the roster of quality Argentine front-rowers.

Key Player:  Nicolas Sanchez.  We'll take the quality that Marcos Ayerza lends to the scrum as read, and instead focus on a man who has re-ignited the Pumas back play.  Even in defeat in the Rugby Championship, Sanchez has consistently stood out as a fly half who is willing to take the ball to the line, attract the defenders, and pick the holes.  That he was signed up by that 'World Class-only' members club that is Toulon speaks volumes, and his cultured boot is another key weapon in the Argentina armoury.  Yes, his attacking instinct may see him get clobbered a few times, but when he's on song, the Pumas purr.

Watch out for:  Juan Imoff.  Serious, serious gas and a lethal step make Imhoff a real dangerman in a talented set of Argentine wingers.  Plying his trade for Racing Metro, Imhoff has a decent record of 11 tries in 27 tests in a side that often fails to give their wingers quality ball and has hit form at a pretty useful time - scoring a hat-trick in that famous win over South Africa.  If he gets the ball in space, he is the kind of player who will get a crowd on their feet.  Also, watch out for fellow winger Santiago Cordero - a couple of seasons ago he was destined to be the 'next big thing', but injuries stalled his career - by all accounts, he's back on track now though.

Strengths:  Scrum.  Yawn.  I know, how unimaginative am I?  It's the easiest point to make, but that's because it remains a bastion of strength in the Pumas game.  With quality operators such as Ayerza, Creevy and Ramiro Herrera filling the XXL shirts, you can see why they have a foundation that very few sides - if any - can rock with any consistency, and they don't mind causing a few problems themselves either.  Also keep an eye out on the back three - any of Agulla, Imhoff, Amarosino, Cordero or Tuculet have the potential to tear any side to shreds.

Weaknesses:  Centres.  It sounds odd to criticize such a specific area, especially when the fine rugby brain of Juan Martin Fernandez and the powerful Marcelo Bosch are the ones to fill the shirts.  But the fact is that neither offer any real running threat, which makes it difficult for the Pumas to get any sort of momentum in the midfield - unless it comes from one of their forwards, who are usually pretty easy to spot.  The Pumas have some quality outside backs but unless they can get some go forward in the middle - and Bosch starts actually passing the ball - they'll be starved of decent ball and wasted.

Prospects:  With the rather obvious exception of New Zealand, the Pumas can be pretty happy with the group that they've drawn in this year's showpiece and should be aiming to exceed the quarter final stages as they did in 2007.  They've shown their improvements in the autumn tours and Rugby Championship in recent years and they should overcome their main rivals - Tonga - without too many squeaky bums (although it won't be easy going).  Once into the quarters, they'll be facing Ireland or France in all likelihood, and - given their recent success - they'll be quietly confident of their chances.


Tonga

Coach: Mana Otai.  The ex-international flanker knows all about the proud traditions of Tongan rugby and, prior to taking the reigns of his country's national side in 2012, he picked up some more experience during very decent spell with Auckland in the NPC.  He suffered a tricky 2013, which included a loss to Romania, but his side recovered well last year and finished third in the Pacific Nations cup this season.  He skippered the side during the 1995 World Cup too and was renowned for his hard-hitting so, if you were hoping for a more subtle approach from this Tongan side... don't.

Captain:  Nili Latu.  The flanker is an inspiration for his side and probably one of the most fearsome players in World Rugby, with penchant for obliterating half-backs...as Lewis Moody found out in 2007.  His technique sometimes leaves a bit to be desired, which has seen him in trouble more than once, although he argues that this is due to unfair scrutiny from referees.  I suspect it's more to do with the face-high shoulder charges Nili, but whatever you say (sir).

Key Player:  Fetu'u Vainikolo.  The Exeter Chiefs winger first caught everyone's attention when he burst onto the scene in 2012, scoring a try against Scotland in that famous win for his country.  Blessed with a low centre of gravity, good footwork, sharp acceleration and that really annoying tendency to never stay bloody still in contact, Vainikolo is a real handful who, if he gets the ball in space, will cause real damage.

Watch out for:  Steve Mafi.  Leicester fans will know him well, but perhaps the rest of the world are not so enlightened.  The ex-Tigers lock-cum-flanker moved to Perth for family reasons a year ago and, although he's struggled to hold down a starting spot for the Force, he's already got a cult following similar to the one he had in the East Midlands.  His deceptive pace, strength and inspector gadget-esque arms make him perfectly suited to deliver some spectacular offloads and, with the ability to create gaps from nothing, he's sure to be a crowd pleaser.

Strengths:  Physicality.  You'll know when you've been in a game with the Tongans, because you won't have slept for weeks because of nightmares of a wall of red charging into your rib cage.  In the proud island tradition, they're built out of something else over there and they seem to be raised on a diet of big hits and huge collisions.  If opposition teams aren't creative against the Tongans, they'll only find themselves smashed backwards in contact repeatedly...and wishing they'd passed to someone - anyone - else.

Weaknesses: Versatility.  Out of the Pacific Island sides, Tonga are the team who don't seem to have added as many strings to their bow over the last few years.  Their set piece is still shaky, they don't really have a kicking game to speak of and their defence struggles when the ball is moved from the point of contact.  Their lethal if you play into their hands, but with some creativity and width, the Tongans more than often struggle to adapt and keep up.

Prospects:  Tonga are proper crowd pleasers, capable of delivering the Hollywood hits and classic scores that will make the end-of-tournament highlights reel.  And there's no doubting that they do have the capacity to rock the boat against some of the so-called bigger nations - that win over Scotland was preceded by a magnificent 19 - 14 victory over the French in the 2011 World Cup, a win which captured hearts but then broke them, as they still failed to qualify owing to a disappointing earlier defeat against Canada.  They've hit a decent run of form during the Pacific Nations and there's no doubt they'll be targeting the Pumas, but I'm not sure they have the all-court game to take the party beyond the pool stages.


Georgia
 

Coach: Milton Haig. Another Kiwi taking the reigns of a national side, and another man with bags of experience. When Vern Cotter was approached about the Georgia role in 2011, he turned it down, but had no hesitation in recommending his old pal for the job - and with good reason. Haig has cut his teeth in the NPC working with the Bay of Plenty, Super Rugby with the Chiefs and even the Maoris before making the trip to Europe. He's slowly trying to expand the Georgian's traditional style of rugby from effectively a 10 man fight but, even with some talent emerging behind the scrum, it's still a work in progress.
 

Captain: Mamuka Gorgodze. A man who needs no introduction, 'Gorgodzilla' is the human bulldozer who made is name at Montpellier before signing for the big dollars at Toulon. Although he struggles to get a start there, at 31 he's in his prime and is a man who represents the best aspects of traditional Georgian rugby - he's all about relentless physicality and huge aggression in the contact area. A man I'd personally avoid at all costs.
 

Key Player: Lasha Malaghuradze. A relative veteran of the side with 58 caps, despite only being 29, the fly half has gradually become more and more a key figure Haig's attempted revolution within Georgian rugby. He plays his rugby in France - albeit at amateur level - and he's developed his attacking game there, showing a greater willingness to take the ball to the line and look for wider runners...which is the style Haig is looking to implement. It will be interesting to see if he can continue to orchestrate his side's development under World Cup conditions or if he wall fall back to the tried, tested but limited territory game for his monstrous set of forwards.
 

Watch out for: Vasil Lobzhanidze. I can't pretend to know a great deal about the scrum half's credentials, but I do know that he will become the youngest ever player to appear at a World Cup if he comes on - he doesn't turn 19 until the end of the Group stages. That said, he isn't exactly devoid of any experience - he already has 6 caps after making his breakthrough this year and looked sharp in their warm up against Japan. No matter who you play for, if you can break into the national side as a teenager, you're going to have something about you.
 

Strengths: The pack. As much as Haig's tried to alter the perception, there is no use denying that the forwards - by themselves - can provide a test for absolutely anyone. With Gorgodze and prop Davit Zirakashvili standing out as first rate operators in the Top 14, they will be relishing the chance to show what they can do against the world's best on the biggest stage. Put bluntly, they won't be any fun to play against. At all.
 

Weaknesses: Experience. Don't get me wrong, they impressed in the Six Nations B where they dispatched the likes of Germany, Portugal, Russia and fellow qualifiers Romania with ease, but the highest ranked side they have played in 2015 was Japan (13th in the world) in their last warm up fixture. And they lost it. There's quality players on board, no doubt, but I suspect that playing the likes of the Pumas and the All Blacks, in particular, will come as a bit of a shock.
 

Prospects: Perhaps the most optimistic Georgian fans might be eying a quarter final spot at the expense of a shock win over the Pumas - which isn't beyond the realms of possibility - but it's more realistic for the Lelo's to aim for a tournament-best record of 2 wins. They've beaten both Tonga and Namibia before, so they'll be hopeful of taking their next progressive step...although I suspect that Tonga may have too much for them in the first up fixture.



Namibia

Coach:  Phil Davies.  Yes, THE Phil Davies - mainstay lock in the Welsh side from the mid 80s to mid 90s, a man with bags of coaching experience, having headed up up the management at Leeds for a decade before spells with the Scarlets and the Blues.  That's why it's a bit surprising that a man with his pedigree would jump into the relative unknown of Namibian rugby when there would be plenty of decent clubs sniffing about for his signature.  Still, his know-how can only be of benefit to a vastly inexperienced Namibian side - although, as he's only been in charge since June (following DanieVermeulen's resignation), it's hard to see how he could have changed their prospects around.

Captain:  Jaques Burger.  The man with no fear, no restraint and, seemingly, no face.  Well, there's very little of it left now, after the Saracens man has made his name by sticking his head where I personally wouldn't put my feet. Still, despite the batterings, Burger is renowned in the Premiership as being one of the toughest competitors in Europe - a man who thrives on creating havoc for opposition fly-halves and their runners.  He leads a defence like very few can and you can see why he is the easy choice as skipper.

Key Player:  Johnny Redelinghuys.  Sharks man Renaldo Bothma is another physical presence in the back row, but the one area where Namibia certainly won't shirk is the one-on-one confrontation - and that's where the colossal Redelinghuys comes in. He's only just over 6 feet tall, but weighs over 20 stone so he is, technically, a house.  Despite not being guaranteed a starting spot any more, he is a veteran of 2 previous World Cups - the former Cheetahs prop has a vast wealth of knowledge and good technical ability, which will be important when it comes to channeling all that...er...weight.  Also key is Theuns Kotze - because he is the only fly half in the squad.

One to Watch:  Chrysander Botha.  Like many of the low-ranked sides, Namibia are heavily reliant on their few professional players - but, in Botha, they have a man who is not so much about damage limitation as he is about causing some headaches himself.  Playing his rugby for the Exeter Chiefs, the full back caught the eye in the 2011 World Cup and has a wonderful, gliding running style not unlike Iain Balshaw in his pomp.  He hasn't looked out of place in the Premiership (despite not being a regular) and he could be a rare spark of electricity for Namibia - if he finds the space.

Strengths:  Er...Jaques Burger.  See above.  It's not that there aren't other solid players within the Namibian side - there are - it's just that their skipper is so head and shoulders above the rest of them in terms of experience and quality, that at times it is easy to see them as a one man team.  But that doesn't matter when the Saracens man is crashing about, doing his thing - and when it gives his side a belief and fearlessness that they can go toe-to-toe with the best of them, it becomes one of their greatest stengths.

Weaknesses:  Quality.  I should pre-empt this by saying that any of these Namibians are 10 times the player I am (I would flat out refuse to try and tackle Redelinghuys in full flow, for example) but the fact is that the vast majority of these guys are amateurs who haven't experienced the professional game at the top level before - and many of those who are professional are bit-part players as opposed to being regulars.  They will play with all the heart and courage and other patronising terms we use when describing a Namibian side, but the bottom line is that they are - sadly - not good enough cause an upset yet.

Prospects:  It's hard to be too optimistic when you're talking about a side whose World Cup record reads played 15, lost 15, who lost to Kenya last year and had the worst points difference of any side in each of the last two tournaments.  But there are reasons for being hopeful that Namibia could claim that first win, with Georgia being their target - they coasted through their African qualifying campaign without too much fuss, this is their fifth consecutive tournament and, now they've got their professional players available, they've started to pick up performances, as shown in their recent thumping of Russia.  But we're starting to clutch at straws a little bit here, and the likely result is that they'll once again be the whipping boys of the Pool - although Burger will make sure their presence is felt.

@RuckedOver

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