Well, as my homies say, sh*t's about to get real.
I can't really pull that off, can I?
Anyway, after a stunning set of quarter finals, can the World Cup semi-finals live up to the standard set?
New Zealand v South Africa
Perhaps a fairly predictable semi-final in all honesty, but you wouldn't have said that after the opening weekend when Japan caused the greatest upset of all time against the mighty South Africans. Unfortunately, for all future opponents, it seems to have had the same effect as flicking an elastic band into the eye of Bruce Banner, and the Springbok machine has been hulking up some impressive momentum ever since. You won't like them when their angry.
Yes, the South African style that we've come to expect has risen to the prominence once again - a bruising, bristling physicality complimented by some of the sharpest finishers and brains in the game out wide, and at scrum half. In the pack, Lood De Jager has been a lumpy revelation with his all action approach and enthusiasm to get his hands on the ball, and if there is a more muscular and aggressive back row than Burger, Louw and Vermuelan, I'm yet to see it. That's not to say that they're without subtlety, of course, as anyone who saw the big Springbok number 8's outrageous offload against Wales can testify, but there's no question that - if the game boils down to an arm wrestle - very few can match the men in green.
The only problem for Heyneke Meyer's men is that they still look clunky in attack; indecisive in how they want to play, despite clearly having a wealth of options at their disposal. Their backline core unit of Pollard, De Allende and Kriel could develop into one of the best groups in World Rugby, but against Wales they looked less sure of themselves and were pressured into mistakes - or at least funneled back into traffic - leaving the arch-finisher, Bryan Habana, with precious little to work with. Experience breathes confidence and, against the most experienced fly-half-and-centres combination in the World, they need get an old head on their young shoulders, and quickly.
Of course, experience isn't just something that crops up in the centres for the All Blacks, it permeates the entire team - names like Whitelock, Kaino, McCaw and Read all have more experience than most international packs have in their entirety. Even some of their younger talent, such as Savea or Aaro Smith, still have a shed-load of caps - and tries - and, at this stage of the tournament, experienced heads are what's needed. Experienced heads and jaw-dropping execution of course, as the World Champs showed last week, giving the French a taste of Madame Guillotine as they sliced Les Bleus apart in a stunning display of support running, crisp passing and game-awareness. Yes, there were moments of individual brilliance - when Julian 'The Bus' Savea blaster through three tackles in a Lomu-like display of power - but for the most part there wasn't razzmatazz or outrageous flair on the part of any one player. It was a team so comfortable in what they do, so confident in their ability that all that was needed was a clear head to make the right call time and time again. And that's exactly what they did.
I don't think anything sums up All Black rugby better than replacement prop Joe Moody, who produced an outrageous offload to set up his team's final try. Moody was enjoying a beer in the sun just a couple of weeks ago before being called up as injury cover for Tony Woodcock, but such is the class that trickles down through the New Zealand set-up that even the replacement loosehead (who now starts against South Africa) can drop a no-look pass out of the back of his hands. Frightening and brilliant, all at the same time.
Key Battle
Richie McCaw v Francois Louw. To be frank, when you get two sides packed full of quality it starts to get a little bit tricky to try and pick just one battle which is key - but given the gulf in experience and class in the midfields, South Africa simply have to rule the breakdown and the battle of the forwards generally if they are to have even a sniff. Louw was my player of the year in 2013 and there are times when - for Bath - he has dragged his side to victory almost by himself, through his relentless workrate and his phenomenal ability over the ball. He is, of course, against the best in the business this time around - McCaw's face might now resemble a scrunched up paper bag due to the number of times he's had it clobbered by opposition boots and goodness-knows what else, but his ability to frustrate opponents in the ruck and play the referee is still second to none. If South Africa are to have a genuine shot, Louw has to set the tone for his side by taking McCaw out of the game.
Prediction
It isn't 'Mission Impossible' for the Springboks, but it is Mission 'Spank me on the bum and call me Reginald if they win', or something more catchy to that effect. South Africa fans will have to accept that, whilst Pollard, De Allende and Kriel are going to be big names going forward, they simply don't have the intuition and nous of their vastly more experienced counter parts. For there to be an upset here, the Springbok pack needs to dominate to such an extent that the All Blacks backline is almost taken out of the game - and I don't see that happening. New Zealand by 9.
Australia v Argentina
Part 2 of the Rugby Champi…I mean, World Cup semi-finals, sees the Wallabies take on the Pumas in what has the potential to be a thriller. With the Aussies having picked up the Celtic injury-bug and the South Americans coming off the game of their lives last week, a place in the final genuinely hangs in the balance – make sure you time your Sunday lunch around this one.
The Aussie chances of success are boosted hugely by the presence of one David Pocock in the number eight shirt. Against Scotland, they struggled to slow their opponent’s attacking ball to the same extent that they had done against England and Wales, and there’s no hiding that the absence of the man with biceps the size of bowling balls was a key factor in that. Michael Hooper, playing in the 7 shirt as he has done all tournament, didn’t have a bad game by any means, but he couldn’t play his natural game. He was holding back in the defensive line a touch and hanging off the tackle, waiting for the opportunity to get in over the ball – and he’s not bad at that, but he doesn’t have Pocock’s natural instinct to sniff out chances and then the rock-solid technique to take them.
Although the potentially-electric Israel Folau also returns, the main concern for Cheika will be how experienced players could make such basic and costly mistakes in their previous outing. Looking at the three tries they conceded, they were all due to spectacular brain-farts by the men in green and gold. James Slipper, who starts (and presumably this time has been reminded that his brief is not to throw miss-passes on his 22), made the biggest gaff, but they were all, in their own way, pretty incomprehensible and, if the Wallabies switch off to that extent on Sunday, they’ll be badly punished.
The reason for that is that it became clear against Ireland that the South Americans have found their feet playing at a high tempo, wide game that has the capacity to stretch teams to breaking point. Yes, in the first 20 minutes they were helped by an Irish defence as threatening as a bag of bunnies, but I will go as far as to say that the opening and closing quarter of their victory over Ireland was as good as anything the All Blacks showed against the French – and that was as close to ‘total rugby’ as you can get.
The strong and industrious tight five is still there, with Creevy adding a touch of class in the two shirt, but the back row’s work rate is what makes them such a threat. All over the park – around the fringes, in the middle, around the wider channels – the likes of Lobbe, the under-rated Senatore and the aggressive Matera (in particular) were charging about making huge yards with the ball in hand, getting their team surging forward.
It helped, of course, that they have a back three that can now be held up as one of the best units in the tournament. We’ve known about Imhoff for some time – in fact, many at the Millennium Stadium may have some not-so-fond memories of him standing up Leigh Halfpenny – but it was still awesome to see his pace being brought into play at every opportunity, and to to see him work for it, too. Tuculet and Cordero offer something different to complement Imhoff, and it’s Cordero who has really caught the eye. I saw him playing for a pants Argentina side in the Under-20’s two years ago and I was at a loss as to why nobody had signed him up, as he effectively kept his team in games single-handedly. Sometimes, he perhaps tries to make too much happen, but the positive is that he has the skill-set to pull it off and – like Imhoff – the work-rate to go with it.
Key Battle
Matt Giteau v Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe. The way these two backlines are set up is actually very similar, with two veteran playmakers filling the 12 shirt to take the pressure off their fly-halves and to offer real width in the middle, with strike runners and pace outside of them. The only difference is that it was only Hernandez who really did his job last weekend - Giteau, who had a solid game, didn't seem to have his usual authority and we hardly saw him at first receiver, even when Foley was clearly starting to wobble. His midfield distribution was decent, but he needs to take on a similar shift that Hernandez does when it comes to calling the shots if he's going match the variety offered by the Pumas.
Prediction
I’m probably going to get splinters from sitting on the fence for this one. I genuinely think it could come down to David Pocock’s fitness – if the Brumbies man is genuinely match-fit (not Ben Youngs v Australia ‘match-fit’), then I think the Aussies will win at a canter – they’ll ride out the Argentinean storm and have the class to put their opponents away in the second half. Assuming he’s not toally fit, well, it could be anyone’s game. I’ll lean towards the favourites still, but we’ll all need a spare pair of pants for this one. Australia by 2.
@RuckedOver
The strong and industrious tight five is still there, with Creevy adding a touch of class in the two shirt, but the back row’s work rate is what makes them such a threat. All over the park – around the fringes, in the middle, around the wider channels – the likes of Lobbe, the under-rated Senatore and the aggressive Matera (in particular) were charging about making huge yards with the ball in hand, getting their team surging forward.
It helped, of course, that they have a back three that can now be held up as one of the best units in the tournament. We’ve known about Imhoff for some time – in fact, many at the Millennium Stadium may have some not-so-fond memories of him standing up Leigh Halfpenny – but it was still awesome to see his pace being brought into play at every opportunity, and to to see him work for it, too. Tuculet and Cordero offer something different to complement Imhoff, and it’s Cordero who has really caught the eye. I saw him playing for a pants Argentina side in the Under-20’s two years ago and I was at a loss as to why nobody had signed him up, as he effectively kept his team in games single-handedly. Sometimes, he perhaps tries to make too much happen, but the positive is that he has the skill-set to pull it off and – like Imhoff – the work-rate to go with it.
Key Battle
Matt Giteau v Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe. The way these two backlines are set up is actually very similar, with two veteran playmakers filling the 12 shirt to take the pressure off their fly-halves and to offer real width in the middle, with strike runners and pace outside of them. The only difference is that it was only Hernandez who really did his job last weekend - Giteau, who had a solid game, didn't seem to have his usual authority and we hardly saw him at first receiver, even when Foley was clearly starting to wobble. His midfield distribution was decent, but he needs to take on a similar shift that Hernandez does when it comes to calling the shots if he's going match the variety offered by the Pumas.
Prediction
I’m probably going to get splinters from sitting on the fence for this one. I genuinely think it could come down to David Pocock’s fitness – if the Brumbies man is genuinely match-fit (not Ben Youngs v Australia ‘match-fit’), then I think the Aussies will win at a canter – they’ll ride out the Argentinean storm and have the class to put their opponents away in the second half. Assuming he’s not toally fit, well, it could be anyone’s game. I’ll lean towards the favourites still, but we’ll all need a spare pair of pants for this one. Australia by 2.
@RuckedOver
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