Thursday, 31 January 2013

Year of the Lion - Pre 6 Nations Predictions - Back Row


One of my pet hates in rugby punditry is how any moron can state "the battle between the backrows is key" before leaning smugly back in his chair and being applauded for his 'insight' by his peers. When is the battle of the backrow not crucial? Attempting to play attacking rugby without at least parity at the breakdown is like trying to ask out Pippa Middleton whilst wearing nothing but lycra on a cold day - futile, probably embarrassing and likely to leave you feeling inadequate. The Lions need loose forwards who can maintain continuity, add ballast in the carry and halt any Australian momentum in its tracks, denying them of ball. With that in mind, let's take a look at the potential chaos-creators at 6, 7 and 8, where the British and Irish sides have an embarrassment of riches. Well, it would be if half of them weren't crocked (or semi crocked). With the way they are dropping, it could just end up as an embarrassment.
Blindside flanker – What have Daniel Lydiate, Stephen Ferris and Tom Croft all got in common? Firstly, they're all top-rate blind side flankers. Lydiate was the player of the six nations last year, Ferris is one of the biggest carriers in Europe, whilst Croft shone for England last season and impressed on the last Lions tour. Secondly, they're all injured. Lydiate and Ferris both injured ankles some months ago and are battling to make the second half of the 6 nations, whilst Croft nearly ended up in wheelchair after trying to tackle Nick Easter with his Adam's apple last April. Although Croft and Ferris should see some top-flight rugby action before the end of the season even if they miss the six nations, via their clubs in the Heineken Cup, it's particularly concerning for Dan Lydiate because the Dragons are, well, pants.
So with these three big hitters out of the picture currently, who is the lead candidate? Step forward SEAN O'BRIEN. I know, I know, he usually plays 7 for Ireland, but it's no coincidence that he's been playing some of his best rugby of the last 2 years at blindside with Shane Jennings at 7 for Leinster. Putting him at 6 allows him to concentrate on wrecking opposition tacklers - the Irish juggernaught is not an out-and-out scavenger or a link man, but a bulldozing carrier and big hitter of enormous physicality. Being between Sean O'Brien and the tryline when he has the ball is not a pleasant place to be; on par with being between John Goodman and a buffet. Check out this video of the big man in full flight:
Who will be following the Leinster wrecking ball into the back row? TOM WOOD demonstrated how one phenomenal match can push you right into contention, and he did that with an immensely physical and energetic performance against the All Blacks in December. Like O'Brien, he can play openside, but watching the blindside is probably the best place for him – and he also provides an extra lineout option, which is always a bonus in the back row. Pushing Wood all the way is Scottish captain Kelly Brown and his two pet slugs that live above his eyes, with the Saracens man coming into some great form of late, and Irishman Kevin McLaughlin is also worth keeping an eye on after some eye catching displays for Leinster.
 
Openside flanker – Ah the art of being a 7. The ability to put your face where most people would hesitate to put their feet and smile sweetly at the referee whilst doing it. If the All Blacks have the king of the breakdown in Richie McCaw, then the Wallabies have the heir to the throne in David Pocock. Outstanding over the ball, and with a pair of guns that would dwarf a small country's arsenal, Pocock is a one man wrecking-machine of a flanker with the ability to turn a game on its head with his steals. The message is clear –"Get Pocock". Who do we task with such an enjoyable job?
A year ago Sam Warburton was nailed on not just for the number 7 shirt, but for the captaincy too. An inspirational leader during Wales' grand slam and during their world cup campaign (until his red card…whoops), Warburton has shown plenty of skill over the ball and has a great engine that enables him to get through astonishing amounts of work. However, he led Wales to three defeats against the Lions' opposition on the 2012 Summer Tour – games they should have won – before injury and average club form set in. That said, if he has a big Six Nations like he needs to, the guy simply has too much class to leave out. SAM WARBURTON gets the benefit of the doubt and the starting position at openside...for now.

He gets this by the skin of his teeth because CHRIS ROBSHAW is breathing down his neck. Dewi Morris amusingly got his knickers into a twist on The Rugby Club lately after proclaiming that Chris Robshaw wasn't a real seven. Stuart Barnes laughed and said "He is a seven - give the guy a break".  Watch the below from 45 seconds onwards (just after they finish praising the excellent Chris Henry)

 
I generally dislike Barnes and his waddling pomposity, but he was bang on the money here. In 2012, Robshaw made an average of 14.6 metres a game (twice that of Warburton), averaged 12.8 tackles (50% more than Warburton), won 6 turnovers and passed/offloaded a staggering 76 times. Robshaw is on a roll, and if he continues to impress with his outstanding workrate and skills as a link man, he will nab the seven shirt.
 
Who else is pushing for a spot? According to the stats, Ross Rennie was the best 7 in the northern hemisphere in 2012. He affected more turnovers, beat more defenders and made more clean breaks than anyone else, making a ridiculous 21.6 metres on average a game. However, the bulk of these great figures came from his first two games of the year against England and France, before he trailed off as the year went on. Injury also means he'll struggle to make much of a statement this 6 nations. The outstanding Justin Tipuric is a real bolter for the squad following his excellent form for the Ospreys – so much so that Warburton has got a bit nervous and offered to move to blindside to accommodate him in the Welsh team. For Ulster and Ireland, Chris Henry is making similar waves following standout performances in the Heineken Cup and against Argentina in the autumn. And, whisper it quietly, the England selectors may ignore him, but if Steffon Armitage keeps winning every award under the sun (which they have a lot of) in the south of France, the Toulon tubster might yet sneak his way in.
 
 
Number 8 – in my opinion, probably the easiest of the backrow positions to call. Jamie Heaslip was under pressure a year ago after some blunt performances, but has come back with a vengeance - he is a Lions veteran of the tour to South Africa, newly appointed Ireland captain and has a ferocious presence around the park. In the Heineken Cup this season he tops the Amlin Opta Index for forwards by a colossal 83 points. Now I don't know exactly what that the Opta Index measures, but I assume it's rugby related and therefore it's good (unless it's a count of dropped passes or something). On top of this he has the ideal character for a leader on the tour – a tough competitor who leads with actions rather than words. I'm pretty sure that Heaslip will be a Lions starter so – and here's the big call – pack your bags, JAMIE HEASLIP, LIONS CAPTAIN.
 
Behind Heaslip comes the Tongan-born Welshman TOBY FALETAU. He exploded onto the scene at the World Cup in 2011, making some impressive carries and finishing the tournament with a pretty handy statistic of 75 tackles made, 0 missed. In the turd of an Autumn series that the Welsh endured, the afro-headed giant was a shining light, making an awesome 62 metres against the All Blacks, with 1 clean break, 3 defenders beaten and 3 offloads. He will need a big 6 nations to secure a starting spot, but is a definite tourist.
 
Behind these two come a pair of bruisers who, when they can be bothered, are among the most destructive number eights (along with Frenchman Louis Pick-my-Moles) in Europe. Unfortunately, they both have a habit of going missing for 70 minutes in games when they aren't being using opponents as door mats – I am of course talking about Englishman Ben Morgan and Scottish number 8 Dave Denton. Last season Ben Morgan walked through the French pack in Paris with a trail of no less than five frogs left in his wake when setting up Ben Foden for a try, whilst South African-born Denton bullied England mercilessly in Edinburgh and made an impressive cameo against the All Blacks in the autumn. If they showed some consistency, not only could they both be genuine Lions contenders, but we could also see more moments like this:
 
 
Several other number 8s worthy of a mention are floating around too. Harlequins veteran Nick Easter is consistently regarded by pundits as the best 8 in the Aviva Premiership, despite being 'retired' by Lancaster and co. There is no doubt his form has been impressive but the selectors may keep in mind the fact that many England squad members viewed him as a negative influence during their World Cup campaign (according to the leaked report), and this is something a Lions tour could do without. Meanwhile, Montpellier and Scotland number 8 Johnnie Beattie will be hoping to transfer his club form to the international stage after being rejuvenated in France and selected ahead of Dave Denton for the Scots, and James Haskell (not everyone's cup of tea, admittedly) is effective and energetic across the backrow – a jack of all trades, perhaps to his detriment – and is a self-described "banter-merchant", popular with his teammates and sure to be valued on a long tour to the humourless land of Australia.
Break Out
 
The key to beating Pocock and co in the battle of the breakdown will be speed and organisation.  It's no use just trying to bludgeon the openside off the ball with sheer power at rucktime because of Pocock's flawless technique and strength over the ball - like an unwanted STI, he's annoyingly hard to get rid of.  Making sure the Lions have a back-rower supporting a ball carrier in all contact situations will help deny the Australian back row any advantage, and the group I've selected are pretty mobile and dynamic around the park.  In addition to this, they are all, to varying degrees, good ball carriers, which means when they're on the charge they can stay on their feet that extra few seconds whilst waiting for support to arrive. 
 
Starters: O'Brien, Warburton, Heaslip
Sub: Robshaw
Dirt Trackers: Wood, Faletau
 
Who would you pick to win the battle of the breakdown?

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