Thursday, 31 January 2013

Year of the Lion - Pre 6 Nations Predictions - Half Backs


Half backs.  Similar in so many ways and yet construed completely differently.  Fly halves are the lynchpin of a side, the quarterback, the playmaker and the glory-getter, probably picked in that position since their first school team just because he was the only lad in class to have a girlfriend.  Although I'm sure that there are anomalies (Andy Goode, for example, unless he's just aged particularly badly), you know the type I'm talking about from school – good at all sports, confident, popular, decent looking with a consistent conveyer belt of totty on his arm and, worst of all, smug.  Standard fly half material.  On the other hand, the school coach would probably look at most ratty, loud-mouthed skinny runt and think he'd found his ideal 9.  Whilst all forwards (especially props for some reason), when nobody's around, dream of showcasing their as yet undiscovered talents at 10, nobody gives a thought for 'trying out' at scrum half – perhaps in main due to the 'Have a go Bergamasco Fiasco':

 

Most forwards will look at their fly half with a mixture of awe and adoration as he pulls the strings from the pocket (as long as he doesn't miss his touch finders – then there's hell to pay) but it is a challenge enough trying to find a scrum half who is liked by his own teammates and/or supporters, let alone anyone else.  And yet it is the 9 who really dictates the way the game is run.  He decides when to the pull the trigger and release the backs, when to dart for gaps around the edges, when to unleash the big runners on the fringes or when to aimlessly boot a box kick upfield to give possession straight back to the opposition.  Their communication 'skills' (i.e. gobbing off constantly) are both essential and irritating to their pack, the opposition and the referee alike.

 
So let's scour the British and Irish sides for a pair of half backs who will run the show and grab the back pages and the glory off the back of everyone else's hard work.
 

Scrum half – Certainly, on the face of it, one of the most difficult positions to call.  In my opinion, the role of the 9 has evolved from just simply shipping the ball off the base, to using vision and speed to keep defences guessing, drawing them in and providing the fly half with more time.  The relationship with the 10 is also crucial, where we want a marriage of styles that is more Posh and Becks and less Russell Brand and, well, whoever he decides to marry next.   If we have a static fly half, we want a 9 who gets the ball to him quickly, rather than eating up the space provided, whilst a more attack-minded 10 who attacks the gainline will benefit from a darting scrum half who creates indecision in the defenders' minds – this will be especially important against Australia's superb backrow.  I think currently that the obvious starter at 10 for the lions (see below) will benefit from the latter, so let's take a look at the attacking scrum halves who are going to be potentially bamboozling the bogans down under this summer.

 
There are, currently, three standout candidates for the Lions who can provide the threat off the base needed to kickstart a Lions attack and, to be honest, you could probably get a good result from any one of them – I am of course talking about Mike Phillips, Ben Youngs and Danny Care.  For my starter spot, I'm going to roll the dice with BEN YOUNGS.  Starting for England ahead of Care, he's been coming back into the form that shredded the Aussies to pieces twice in 4 months in 2010 when he burst onto the scene.  Since then he has suffered from injury, inconsistency (brilliant one game, abysmal the next) and immaturity, throwing tantrums that 5 year old on a sugar binge would be proud of.  Over the last year however, he's shown signs of getting back to his best whilst adding other strings to his bow such as his box kicking – a department in which  he is currently far superior to the other contenders, demonstrated by turning in a brilliant display of tactical maturity against Toulouse.  What Youngs does so well, however, is bring in other players into gaps he creates, his forward runners benefiting from half breaks and building up an unstoppable wave of momentum.  An attacking fly half, with good support runners, can wreak havoc in the gaps that Youngs generates through his pace and constant 'eyes up' approach, which has seen him top the 'assists' chart at Leicester for the last two years.


On the bench, I'm going to give the nod to MIKE PHILLIPS.  Despite some questionable form for Bayonne, there is no doubting big Mike's ability and class.  There aren't many teams I know who can label their 9 as their enforcer (and even fewer who would admit this to be the case) but Phillips' talents for getting in and amongst it is a great asset to have in the squad – capable of rubbing salt in the wound if the Lions are up and disrupting the Australian's flow if the Lions are struggling.  He offers a different kind of threat to Care and Youngs, in that he is the size of most back row players and isn't afraid of mixing it with the big boys:

 

Finally, and unlucky not be starting, I'd be surprised not to see DANNY CARE on the plane.  He has been in scintillating form for Harlequins, starting the season with an incredible 8 tries and a drop goal in just 14 starts – a strike rate most wingers would be chuffed with.  He may have one of the worst haircuts I've seen on a rugby pitch, but there's no denying Care's all round talent for scampering through gaps and getting himself over the tryline.  If there is perhaps one criticism of his play, and this is the reason I have given Youngs the nod ahead of him, is that he doesn't always look to bring others into the game; he is much more focused on creating gaps for himself.  Although this can result in an awesome try-scoring record, it can also stop a team's momentum at source if the wrong option is taken.  This is perhaps reflected in the startling statistic that England have only won 33% of the games Care has started, whilst that percentage is way up at 65% for Ben Youngs.  Despite this, Care's club form cannot be ignored and, as long as he keeps off the sauce, he'll be sure to have an impact in Australia.

 
In terms of others who are in with a shout, Connor Murray could force his way into contention with a good six nations – his lightning delivery is a key part of Munster's backline resurgence.  He will also have a good understanding with Mr Sexton (see below) which is sure to work in his favour.  Another Irishman who is a real bolter for the squad is Ulster flyer Paul Marshall.  Despite being a relative late bloomer at 27, Marshall has been electric for Ulster over the last two seasons whenever he has played – which unfortunately, is not too often as he has a certain Ruan Pienaar blocking his path.  Scotsman Henry Pyrgos is also a great talent who is very highly rated, but his inexperience and probable lack of game time this 6 nations will see him miss the cut.  A dark horse though is the man starting in his place – Greg Laidlaw.  The Edinburgh man, who has played all his test rugby at flyhalf, will be starting the six nations at scrum half which may be an attractive proposition to selectors who want to take another backrow forward instead of a backup 9 or 10.


Fly half – Although perhaps a position of weakness for the Lions, certainly in terms of established depth, that's not to say that there aren't some good players pushing for tour spots.  It is certainly, however, one of the easiest positions in which to call a starter currently.  To threaten the Aussies the Lions need a man who can unleash his runners on the gainline to maximise the chances of getting the opposition going backwards, which makes it twice as hard for their backrow to slow the Lions' ball down effectively.  It also provides the welcome sight of Quade Cooper – if he's playing – loudly soiling himself as he is unable to get out of the way of 100+kgs of British and Irish meat hurtling towards him.  Playing flat and on the gainline commits defenders and allows a 10 to pick their gap in the knowledge that it won't close up before the runner hits the line, due to the fact that the defenders' time to react is significantly reduced.  The only drawback is that the decision making time for the fly half is also diminished, so we need a fly half as cock-sure and confident as James Bond at a Playboy Bunnies party…


Take a bow JONNY SEXTON.  Despite the fact he seems to have a head the size of a ping pong ball, the Leinster 10 is a smooth operator, attacking the line aggressively and bringing the best out in those around him.   Technically astute and powerful when kicking from hand, the Irishman also has an eye for a gap and is deceptively strong, meaning any gaps created by his scrumhalf partner can be mercilessly exploited.  It's no surprise that, during Leinster's period of Heineken Cup dominance, Sexton has been a major driving force behind that success since taking over the role of fly-half from Felipe Contemponi in their 2009 semi-final against Munster.  In fact, the only significant game that Leinster lost in Europe between 2009 and their 2012 triumph against Ulster was a semi-final against Toulouse in 2010 – and Sexton was injured for that.   His class was never more prominent than when he helped drag Leinster from a 22-6 deficit against Northampton in the 2011 final to lead them to a remarkable 33-22 victory in which he was named Man of the Match – his performance is now viewed as one of the best ever in a European final.

 

Any weaknesses? His kicking off the ground was scrutinised in the last World Cup, where he finished the tournament with an awful 49% success ratio.  Since then though his confidence has returned, slotting 22 of 25 kicks last 6 nations for Ireland and nailing around 88% for Leinster last season.  Without question, Sexton is the man in possession of the 10 shirt.

 
Backing him up is a tricky one, with no really established stand out candidates, but I'm going to plump for OWEN FARRELL. The Saracens and England 10 has had his critics about his ability with the ball in hand, but there is no denying his defensive ferocity or dead-eyed accuracy with the boot (remind you of someone?).  He also succeeds in creeping out most watching television audiences and, in all likelihood, opposition players with a "crazy eye rolling" display during his kicking routine.

 

Aside from that, Farrell showed during his performance against the All Blacks for England, and his 32 points (including a record 10 penalties) against Racing Metro in the Heineken Cup, that he displays a superb level of maturity and is what Sir Ian McGeechan would describe as a "test match animal".

 
Who else is looking to impress the selectors?  Welsh duo James Hook and Dan Biggar are both in fine form and are scrapping it out for the Welsh jersey this championship,  with the winner possibly getting themselves a Lions spot, after poor Rhys Priestland dropped from certain tourist to injured and woefully out of form in less than a year.  Toby Flood can be both sublime and seriously sub-par, sometimes in the same game, but if he puts in an impressive run for England and Leicester, there is no reason for him not to be under serious consideration.  And then we turn to the golden oldies:  Ronan O'Gara has led Munster to a European Cup quarter-final, whilst Jonny Wilkinson continues to impress for Toulon – but with them approaching the ripe old ages of 36 and 34 respectively, will they be able to stand up to a Lions tour after a full season of rugby?  I think if we're going to go down that route, why not give Phil Bennett a call to see if he's free? My leftfield selection, who retains a huge amount of experience and, due to rotation policy, will still be fresh come June, is the other Saracens fly half CHARLIE HODGSON.  The former England man has been in mesmerising form for the last 6 months, kicking effectively and, when Saracens decide to run the ball once a month, passing beautifully.  His experience will be invaluable for the other fly halves and, who knows, maybe the old dog has couple more tricks up his sleeve yet.

 
KICKING ON

I've picked a half back combination that I think has the capacity to attack and create confusion in Australian ranks, bringing in the talented runners that the Lions will have over the park, as well being able to play an effective territory game if the situation or conditions call for it.  Come June time, I'm backing Youngs and Sexton to come out top of the class against the Aussies.
 
Starters: Youngs, Sexton
Subs: Phillips, Farrell
Dirt trackers: Care, Hodgson.

 Who would you pick in the key positions of 9 and 10?

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