Heineken Cup Preview - Saracens v Toulon

I've never really believed in fate.  Simply put, I think we make decisions and consequences flow naturally from them but, admittedly, there have been a few times I've been creeped out by a 'coincidence'.  Like the time I was on the phone to my first XV rugby captain whilst on the train, saying that we needed a bigger blindside flanker, and Chris Robshaw sat down next to me.  Turns out he didn't fancy packing in Harlequins for a London Division 3 side.  Or the fact that I would only seem to win games on Football Manager if my back was turned to the screen.  Or the fact that every time I try to bring up the possibility of a raise at work, my boss has to take an urgent call.  Spooky.

But this Heineken Cup Final – the last of its kind – really takes the biscuit.  The last ever tournament of its type before the big revamp, the penultimate games of two ex-England skippers, the facing off of England's past and future in the 10 jersey, and two sides who are looking to become the dominant force both domestically and continentally going head to head.  It's shaping up to be cracker.

In fact, 'cracker' doesn't really do it justice.  Just ask how Clermont's players felt after taking a royal pasting at the hands of a brutal Saracens defence last month.  The power and aggression of each hit was simply unbelievable.  Jacques Burger rightfully took the plaudits for his monumental efforts but he was superbly supported by the likes of Brad Barritt and Schalk Brits.  It's all part of the Wolfpack mentality, the relentless hunting of the prey – who, in that semi-final, seemed to be anybody with their hands on the ball.  They may have developed an impressive attacking game, spearheaded by an impressive Chris Ashton strike rate, but there is no doubt that their defence is their most powerful – and painful – asset.

And the wolfpack will have to be especially hungry if they are to hold off the mighty Toulon side, whose line-up is, frankly, ridiculous.  Habana, Mitchell, Giteau, Wilkinson, Botha, Hayman, Hernandez – the list goes on.  It's a team full of grizzled veterans who will not take a backward step under pressure and they have the ability across the side to play the all-court game if necessary.  But the pack especially, will prove to be a step up from Clermont.  Toulon have shown that, whilst they have jet heels and twinkle-toes out wide, they are not afraid to play ugly, to take on the big boys and to bully them.  The last time these 2 met - in their semi-final in last year's competition - the Toulon pack forced their counterparts into making mistake after mistake in their own half.  Sarries are a different animal this time around though, whilst Toulon are the same formidable beast.  Their clash with the Saracens 8 will be beyond epic – think unstoppable force meets immovable object.

But where then, will the game be won?  These 2 sides are so evenly matched but both have a crucial advantage over each other.  Saracens, in my opinion, hold the better ball carrying threat around the fringes in the rather large shape of the Vunipola brothers.  In a game where the ball will go wide sparingly, I can see that channel being a big target area.   Toulon, though, have Jonny Wilkinson.  A man who has made a living winning big games, kicking points under the most intense pressure and providing his team with a cool head when the going gets tough.  Owen Farrell may be an impressive young 10 who is learning these traits as well, but I reckon there's one more masterclass to come from England's golden boy.

So that's it – the stage is set.  It won't be fate who wins this one – it will be down to blood and perspiration; who is willing to give the most to achieve the ultimate.  If there's one thing Wilko has taught us – you don't claim immortality by coincidence.

Saracens Team News

Steve Borthwick will be fit to captain Saracens against Toulon in Cardiff on Saturday as the Londoners bid to win their first ever Heineken Cup in the tournament's last ever final.  The only other change sees Richard Wigglesworth replace Neil de Kock at scrum half.

Starting Line-up: A Goode; C Ashton, M Bosch, B Barritt, D Strettle; O Farrell, R Wigglesworth; M Vunipola, S Brits, M Stevens, S Borthwick (capt), A Hargreaves, K Brown, J Burger, B Vunipola.

Subs: J George, R Barrington, J Johnston, M Botha, J Wray, N de Kock, C Hodgson, C Wyles.

Key Player

Jacques Burger.  Yes, it does get boring singing the big Namibian's praises but, given his display in the semi-final against Clermont, can you blame me.  Despite looking like he spends his spare time stopping full-speed HGV's with his face (which is effectively what he does in the day job anyway…), there is a lot of method behind his 'madness'.  Defences have become so structured and organised that sometimes they become predictable, and the pace and aggression of a defensive line becomes secondary to the need to 'stay flat' and watch gaps.  Burger's role is to introduce chaos – to force the half-backs to sit deeper and worry about where he is, slowing the attacking game down.  He'll need to be at his most chaotic to shut down the physical Toulon pack and star-studded backline.

Toulon Team News

Toulon make one change to the XV that beat Munster in the last four as lock Bakkies Botha replaces Jocelino Suta.  Jonny Wilkinson starts at 10 for the penultimate game of his career.

Starting Line-up:  D Armitage; D Mitchell, M Bastareaud, M Giteau, B Habana; J Wilkinson (capt), S Tillous-Borde; X Chiocci, C Burden, C Hayman, B Botha, D Rossouw, J Smith, J M Fernandez Lobbe, S Armitage.

Subs: J-C Orioli, A Menini, M Castrogiovanni, A Williams, V Bruni, M Mermoz, M Claassens, J Suta.

Key Player

Bakkies Botha.  It seems bizarre to say that replacing Jocelino Suta will 'add physicality and grit' to a side, until you realise that one of rugby's hardest men is stepping in.  This is the kind of occasion that Botha relishes no matter what jersey he is wearing and, after watching Sarries bully Clermont into lame submission, he will know that he will be the rallying point should the wolf-pack manage to get their claws stuck in to the Toulon 8.  His abrasiveness and aggression at the breakdown are key to nullifying the hostility of the Londoner's defence and if he can fight fire with fire, he may just nullify away Saracens' most potent weapon.

Key Battle

Owen Farrell v Jonny Wilkinson.  Who else could I pick?  Call me an old romantic but this is the kind of individual duel that gives a cup final that extra 'oomph' and sub-plot that every great occasion needs.  Roll out the clichés:  old stager v young pretender, master v apprentice et cetera.  But it doesn’t change the fact that these are two first-rate fly halves with very similar qualities.  Both are renowned goal-kickers, both have made names for themselves with aggressive defence, and both are under-rated playmakers.  However, where the real difference lies is in experience – the one thing talent can't give you.  Farrell has had a breakthrough season but how will he cope with the cauldron of pressure inside the Millennium Stadium in the biggest club game of his career?  Nothing to me suggests he will falter, but the knowledge that he is up against the ultimate professional – the man who has delivered on the biggest stage – takes the heat to another level. It was Wilkinson dishing out the lesson last year, but now we'll find out how much Farrell really has come on.  In a game that is likely to be brutal more than free-flowing, I suspect the victor will be the side with the fly-half with the cool head. 

Prediction

Prediction.  Alright, I'll admit it.  When I got my tickets – before the semi-finals – I wanted the game to be between Munster and Clermont.  Clermont for the X Factor, Munster for craic.  But now we have Toulon and Saracens, I could not be more excited – the power within these packs is incredible and I expect to see both sides ploughing into each other and leaving nothing on the side as they attempt to win the last EVER Heineken Cup (as we know it).  So much of the game will be focused on Wilkinson – understandably so – but I think this game will be decided by Saracens 8.  To me, they have just a bit more punch about them and I think that may end up being the difference in a game like this.  Saracens by 4.