Very few things in sport are inevitable. It's what keeps things exciting, drives us to
shout in the stands and scream at the TV screen. It's drama, it's unpredictable, it's random. Most of the time. For example, there would be worldwide
agreement that should England get through the group stages of the football
World Cup this summer, they will get knocked out on penalties. It is also inevitable that Stuart Barnes will
launch a verbal love-in with Danny Cipriani as soon as he sees the Sale
fly-half anywhere near an England shirt.
And Saints fans would be forgiven for thinking it's inevitable that
their Northampton side are going to get pipped once again by those irritating
neighbours, the Leicester Tigers.
It seems odd that any team could hold such a hoodoo over a
side like Northampton Saints, but the fact that the hosts of Friday night's semi-final
have not beaten their rivals since September 2010 should be an indication of
the problems they've had, and in that 9-game-winless-run is one LV Cup Final, one
Premiership semi-final and one Premiership Final. All of them big games, and all of them packed
with drama and controversy. So why is it
then, in a game in which history tells us Northampton will struggle, that the
home fans are enjoying a quiet confidence in the build-up to this one?
Well, put simply, Saints look bloody good at the
moment. Blessed with a near-clean bill
of health, with only skipper Dylan Hartley still unavailable, Jim Mallinder can
pick a side packed to the point of bursting with talent, physicality…and
confidence. Piling 74 points onto a
Wasps side is no mean feat, and when the Saints gameplan gets into top gear
they are very hard to stop, with bruising power provided by Samu Manoa,
Courtney Lawes and Luther Burrell, the creative sparks from Stephen Myler and
Kahn Fotuali'i, and the fireworks of the Pisi brothers and Ben Foden. They can play a complete brand of rugby when
they win the battle up front, but in Leicester they are coming up against one
of the very few sides who can match them in that department.
If Saints were in top gear for the majority of the run-in
this season, the Tigers have been chugging along in third. The fact they are even in the semi-final is
nothing short of remarkable, given the scale of the injuries that they've had to
deal with, but they are not in the business of settling for second best. The injuries may have disrupted the fluency
of the Tigers game, which is – in many ways – similar to that of Northampton's,
but the worry for any side facing them is that they could explode into life at
any moment. With the devastating power
of Manu Tuilagi and Logovi'i Mulipola, the twinkling feet of Niki Goneva and
Mathew Tait and the sharp brains of Ben Youngs and Toby Flood, they, even
though they are still missing the likes of Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Tom Croft
and Anthony Allen due to injury, have the players capable of tearing any side
to pieces. But they haven't. Yet.
But games between these two are rarely about one side
shredding the other side. They are
usually pant-wettingly tense encounters whose outcome is determined by the
smallest advantage. On Friday night,
Saints will be looking at exploiting the fringe defence with their big runners,
an area where the Tigers have given away far too many cheap yards and too much
front foot ball over the course of the season.
If the hosts can get front foot ball, then they'll look to hurl George
North and Luther Burrell down that 10/12 channel, where the absence of Allen
will be felt by the visitors. But they,
in turn, will see a potential opening at the scrum, where Saints front row has
looked vulnerable at times – although the return of Alex Corbisiero does add a
stabilising factor of the bench.
There are so many variables in this game it's almost
impossible to choose a winner. Expect
the unexpected; there is nothing inevitable over the outcome of this one. In fact, there is only one aspect of this
battle for the Twickenham final that is inevitable – it should be a
belter. Strap yourselves in.
Northampton Team
News
Northampton welcome back George Pisi, Kahn Fotuali'i, Samu
Manoa and Tom Wood to their starting line-up for Friday's Aviva Premiership
semi-final against rivals Leicester. The
Saints quartet were on the bench for the record romp against Wasps in the final
game of the regular season, however they return for the crucial clash at
Franklin’s Gardens. Jim Mallinder's side
are also buoyed by the inclusion of Courtney Lawes in the second row, while
Ross McMillan is added to the bench.
Starting Line-up: Foden;
K Pisi, G Pisi, Burrell, North; Myler, Fotuali'i; A Waller, Haywood, Ma'afu;
Manoa, Lawes; Wood, Dowson (capt), Dickinson.
Subs: McMillan,
Corbisiero, Mercey, Day, Clark, Dickson, Wilson, Stephenson
Key Player
Salesi Ma'afu. It
seems odd that, in a game where there is attacking talent in spades, that I'm
picking a man resembling a large space-hopper with limbs as the key
player. I wouldn't say that to his face
mind, as Ma'afu is – frankly – built like a brick outhouse, a prop who has made
his name as no-nonsense, hard-hitting forward, but it is his work in the set
piece that will be under real scrutiny on Friday. He's up against Marcos Ayerza, one of the
best looseheads in the world, and the Argentinian will have identified the
scrum as an area where he can get the upper hand. With the scrum one of the very few areas
where Leicester look to have an advantage, Ma'afu must ensure that he holds off
Ayerza long enough to give his backline a stable platform to work from.
Having been rested for the round 22 victory over Saracens,
Marcos Ayerza, Jordan Crane, Vereniki Goneva, Logovi’i Mulipola, Ben Youngs and
Tom Youngs all come back into the visiting side. Captain Ed Slater, Julian Salvi and Jamie
Gibson also come into the pack after sitting out last week, while Dan Bowden
starts in the centre, with Toby Flood at fly-half.
Starting
Line-up: Tait; Morris, Tuilagi,
Bowden, Goneva; Flood, B Youngs; Ayerza, T Youngs, Mulipola; Deacon, Slater
(captain); Gibson, Salvi, Crane
Subs: Briggs,
Bristow, Balmain, Kitchener, Mafi, Mele, Williams, Thompstone
Key Player
Manu Tuilagi. The big
man is still yet to hit his top gear but the signs sure are ominous. His run against Saracens, where he literally
threw Charlie Hodgson 6 metres before offloading to set up a try for Blaine
Scully, reminded us all what he is capable of, and he will be ordered to attack
Stephen Myler at every opportunity on Friday.
The Saints man is utterly pivotal to his side's hopes and if Tuilagi can
get into the fly-halfs head by getting into his channel time after time, it
will affect both the territory and the running game – crucial in a game as
close as this.
Courtney Lawes v Ed Slater.
Two of the standout English locks go head to head in just one of many
fascinating battles taking place all over the park, but the thought of two of
the most physical and powerful players in the business going head to head gets
my vote as the key battle. Quite aside
from a close and hard-fought battle in the lineout, these two will be monumental
forces at the breakdown and in the close exchanges, where Lawes can display
superior athleticism but Slater holds the trump card on the power-packed
carries. Both men get through a hell of
a lot of work, and I get the feeling that the man who gets through the most
will be a deciding factor in a bone-jarringly physical encounter.
I've changed my mind approximately 42 times on this
one. Everything in my head seems to say
that Saints will win – they seem more inventive, they have the players to match
Leicester, they're confident, and they're desperate for revenge. The Tigers, on the other hand, still have a
fantastic side despite the fact that key men like Anthony Allen are missing, but
are yet to really motor this season even though their displays have certainly
improved. That said, they are the only
side who do not fear Franklins Gardens and they always seem to raise their game
against their bitter rivals – and, simply, they know how to win these big
games. Expect a physical game, expect an
entertaining game, expect a brilliant game.
Expect a Saints win. I
think. Saints by 2.
Saracens v
Harlequins: It's hard to see
anything other than a home win, even though Quins have all the momentum of
winning high-pressure games behind them.
Saracens, though, have taken it to another level and their physicality
will be too much for the west London side. Saracens
by 8.
You can also read my
interview with Chris Robshaw and Owen Farrell on The Rugby Blog
Good call on the Saints win. It was an agonizingly close game and a cracker.
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