Friday, 26 September 2014

Premiership Preview - Northampton Saints v Bath



It's not always easy sitting on top of the pile, being number one.  The pressure builds with the expectation of success, and not everyone can handle it.  You can see it everywhere you look – take the music industry for example.  I'm almost ashamed to say that I was a proud owner of "Permission to Land" by The Darkness (actually, I'm not ashamed, it's a great album).  They were, for a year, a phenomenon, before they slowly faded into obscurity.  Ah, second album syndrome.  Or second season syndrome, as it is in sport. 

To be fair, Northampton Saints have not shown many signs of being susceptible to it following their maiden title win last June.  A brutal hammering of Gloucester on the opening weekend may have been followed by a surprise loss at a resurgent Wasps, but there was enough in their bonus-point win at Newcastle (with key players rested) to suggest that the defeat was a flash in the pan.  Their pack has started in typically monstrous form, with Courtney Lawes proving the bane of any fly-half's existence, and the backline still oozes menace – with the dancing feet of George Pisi and the power of George North all strung together by the puppet-master, Stephen Myler.  There's been enough from the East Midlanders to show that they won't be giving up their title without one hell of a fight.
By the looks of it though they will be given just that by their visitors at Franklins Gardens on Saturday.  You don't blast the all-conquering giants of English rugby from the last decade, the Leicester Tigers, to smithereens and not raise a few eyebrows in the process.  How they kick on from that remarkable 45 – 0 display will be interesting to see, but signs are there that this is not the same flash Bath side that lacked backbone from last season.  Their attack has shown utter conviction in every display and, with George Ford's decision making and execution sitting firmly in the top-drawer, it's easy to see why so many neutrals are flicking over to watch the Bath games now.

With the two early pace setters going head to head, there are plenty of key match-ups between rivals for international shirts that will help determine the outcome of this match, but I'm really to see how the two contrasting attacking games stack up next to each other.  Saints are all about momentum and power through the middle and closer channels, with forward runners being hit directly off the scrum half and the likes of North and Luther Burrell attacking the 10/12 channel.  Bath, on the other hand, run everything through Ford.  The forwards make the runs off him, rather than the 9, and they look to generate width very early on as they try and stretch defences to breaking point.  Both are great to watch, but with Saints' defence notoriously stingey, will Bath's ambitious approach pay-off?
There's no sign of this Saints outfit succumbing to the dreaded syndrome just yet, but if they want true immunity, they'll have to start winning the big games – and, believe me, this is one of them.


Northampton Saints Team News
England trio Alex Corbisiero, Tom Wood and Stephen Myler return for Northampton Saints in their only three changes from the win over Newcastle.  Kahn Fotuali'i keeps his place scrum-half as he continues to share the role with Lee Dickson.

Starting Line-up:  Foden; K Pisi, G Pisi, Burrell, North; Myler, Fotuali'i; Corbisiero, Hartley, Ma'afu; Lawes, Day; Clark, Wood (capt), Manoa.
Subs: McMillan, A Waller, Denman, Craig, Fisher, Dickson, Hooley, Wilson.

Key Player
Courtney Lawes.  As usual, Lawes was creating havoc last weekend, picking on poor innocent fly halves as he flew mercilessly into Ruaridh Jackson's ribcage.  That ability to time his run and flatten 10s is so important to the Saints defence – it sets the tone and forces the fly half to play deeper to avoid being clattered.  To that end, it doesn't really matter if they manage to get the pass away – the idea is to lead the line and get into their head.  George Ford was imperious last weekend but there were questions raised last season about his ability to handle pressure.  Lawes will provide plenty of that.


Bath Team News

Bath are forced to make two changes from the resounding 45-0 win over Leicester Tigers last weekend.  Carl Fearns and Matt Banahan are both injured, so Alafoti Fa'osiliva and Olly Woodburn take their places.
Starting Line-up:  Arscott; Rokoduguni, Joseph, Eastmond, Woodburn; Ford, Cook; James, Webber, Wilson; Hooper (capt), Attwood; Fa'osiliva, Mercer, Houston.

Subs: Dunn, Auterac, Thomas, Day, Ewels, Stringer, Henson, Devoto.

Key Player
George Ford.  For the reasons I describe above, the youngster will be under a lot of physical pressure on Saturday.  But he's one season older – and wiser – and so this is a real opportunity for him to step up and demonstrate that he can handle the pressure and can perform with authority without necessarily the strongest platform.  His performance at the Rec last week rightly had Bath – and England – fans purring, and if he can manage the pressure from Lawes, then he has all the tools to unlock this Bath defence.

 
Key Battle
Luther Burrell v Kyle Eastmond.  These are two blokes who had summers they would probably rather forget in international colours.  Burrell at times gave his best revolving door impression in defence during the second test whilst Eastmond, who had looked very sharp in the first match, gave a star turn as a doormat in the third.  Granted, they were playing the world's best side, but it was still enough to attract plenty of criticism from some quarters – but the way they have started this season, you can see that they've put it all right behind them.  Burrell – in his more familiar 12 role – has been direct and strong in both defence and attack and is a chief source of go-forward ball of first phase attack.  He'll be targeting Eastmond with his size advantage all day.  Eastmond, on the other hand, is a slightly different type of 12 – he can accelerate and distribute into the wider channels, where the real strike runners are.  Expect these boys to get their hands on the ball a lot early on to try and make a statement – they are both key to their team's gameplans.

Prediction
Both these sides have looked emphatic at points this year.  Saints, on their opening fixture, simply blew away a very talented – on paper – Gloucester side, whilst Bath absolutely marmalised the Leicester Tigers of all people last year.  These are two punishing and lethal attacks, but they do play very different games which makes it a tricky one to call.  Carl Fearns is a huge loss to Bath as his physicality has been top notch this year and, without him, there's a chance that they may spend a bit more time on the back foot than they've been used to so far.  It's enough to just sway it for the hosts, in my view.  Saints by 4.

 
What else is happening in the Aviva Premiership this weekend?

London Welsh v Gloucester:  Welsh at least avoided conceding a half century last weekend, but that won't be enough to prevent them from falling to another defeat – even against a Gloucester side that is still struggling to find that cohesiveness.  Gloucester by 22.
Leicester Tigers v London Irish:  Check out this handy starting line-up:  Ayerza, Youngs, Cole, Thorne, Parling, Croft, Matera, Slater, Mele, Bai, Camacho, Allen, Tuilagi, Thompstone, Morris.  That's a starting line-up you can make up from Leicester's injury/unavailable list.  Irish, after a great display last week, should be licking their lips, but Leicester should still have enough to grab a win – they'll certainly be hungry for it.  Tigers by 6.

Saracens v Sale:  Sale have been unlucky to only register the one win this season so far, but they won't be picking up a second at Allianz Park.  Sarries have looked unplayable at times and have a great habit of winning games without necessarily firing on all cylinders, like last week.  Sarries by 9.

Exeter Chiefs v Harlequins:  The Chiefs are looking in pretty decent nick this season and Quins have looked a little ropey at times to say the least.  Sandy Park is traditionally a difficult place to pick up a win and I think the Londoners may have to settle for a losing bonus point.  Chiefs by 3.

Wasps v Newcastle Falcons: The Falcons' long losing streak continued last weekend (to be fair, they've had a tricky start to the season) and I suspect it will continue this Sunday. Wasps look like they are on the cusp of being a very decent side and I can see them winning pretty comfortably.  Wasps by 11.

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