It’s a wonderful time of year. You’re still feeling depressed about the fact
it’s dark for 18 hours a day, you feel like Santa Clause lent you half of his
belly over the festive period, and there is no real holiday to look forward to
for another 2 months. It could almost
get you down – if it wasn’t for the fact that the great annual p*ss up, sorry,
rugby competition, is back in town.
Welcome back, the Six Nations.
A lack of knowledge doesn’t stop fat blokes who once picked
up a rugby ball weighing in with their predictions in the pub, so it certainly
won’t stop me from...hang on...
Ireland
Head Coach: Joe Schmidt. The Kiwi worked miracles at Leinster, and now he’s working his magic on the men in green. He took over a side in 2013 that was lacking in confidence and cohesion and turned them into Six Nations winners and southern-hemisphere giant killers. He’ll need to reach deep into his pocket for an extra handful of magic dust this year, though, as his side has racked up a nasty injury list which threatens to destabilise the strong platforms he has built over the last 18 months.
Captain: Paul O’Connell. Despite looking like he’s walked straight off the set of Middle Earth (the bad side, too), the Munster legend is admired and feared in equal measure by fans and players of rival nations. His side, Munster, may not have had the easiest time of it this year but his international pedigree is second to none and his nous will be required in bringing together an side lacking several key players in crucial positions. Plus, there are rumours this will be his last Six Nations tournament...expect him to want to go out with a bang.
Last year: 1st. Brian O’Driscoll was seen off in style as his side defeated France in Paris to narrowly claim the Six Nations Championship ahead of England on points difference, despite losing to the men in white at Twickenham in one of the most intense games in recent memory. The title, though, was richly deserved as Ireland fielded a wonderfully varied game to great effect, and few could begrudge seeing the legendary O’Driscoll walk away with one last championship to his name.
Key Player: Ian Madigan. The Leinster man is likely to be at the centre of attention for a number of reasons – firstly, the injury crisis in the centres means that Madigan is likely to see some game time in the 12 shirt, as he has done for Leinster, although the return of the impressive Robbie Henshaw this week will have been a welcome one for Ireland fans. However, it’s in the 10 shirt where Madigan must really perform; with Paddy Jackson ruled out for the tournament and Johnny Sexton – at the very least – severely lacking in match fitness, Madigan will have to show more reliability with the boot than he did against Wasps last Saturday, whilst retaining the instinctive running threat he possesses.
Prediction: 2nd. Schmidt is building a very capable side and, for me, they are dark horses for the World Cup – they showed in their defeat of South Africa that they can take anyone on. However, the real questions are going to be on how they cope with the injuries in key positions, and life without BOD, as well as the usual concerns over scrummaging, especially when they face the English. The millennium stadium may prove to be a bridge too far for them this year, but they will certainly be there or thereabouts once again.
England
Head Coach: Stuart Lancaster. Lancaster strikes me as a thoroughly nice bloke but, for all his revolutionary thinking in terms of bringing back pride in the England shirt, he is fairly averse to taking risks – especially in terms of selection. Now is the time to throw caution to the wind, however. After a great Six Nations last year, when they were arguably the most impressive side despite not winning it, they had a difficult summer in New Zealand followed by a disappointing Autumn Campaign – although there are plenty of injuries mounting in the England squad, the pressure is certainly on the England coach in a World Cup year.
Captain: Chris Robshaw. The perennially excellent Robshaw must be fed up with the perennial questioning on whether or not he is indeed a ‘true openside’, despite the fact his stats often exceed his peers’. However, with Tom Wood (a man who contributes to a lot of the ‘dirty work’) out for at least the early part of the tournament, the scrutiny will be on Robshaw more than ever to lead from the front and influence the breakdown.
Last year: 2nd. It was an odd result for England because they actually looked, for the majority of the tournament, like the best side on show. A nightmare start against the French aside, Stuart Lancaster’s men were physically dominant and ruled the roost with the set piece and at the breakdown, and the backs – mainly via Mike Brown – finally showed some cutting edge. They were, however, pipped by Ireland to the title on points difference (and not many Englishmen could begrudge Brian O’Driscoll one last piece of silverware) but they did win the Triple Crown for the first time in over a decade with a memorable nilling of Scotland at Murrayfield, a comfortable defeat of Wales at Twickenham and a brutally physical win over the Emerald Isle at HQ. Encouraging signs.
Key Player: Billy Vunipola. With the injury to Ben Morgan, the gargantuan Saracens eight has some rather large shoes to fill – but his recent club form has been encouraging. England are shorn of so many established players, but one thing that makes it easier for any side to click is front foot ball. England simply have to get over the gainline – if untried combinations are pressured by defences, then that is when they are exploited. Vunipola is at the heart of England’s carrying game and, if he can generate that momentum, then it makes it so much easier for the new men outside him to gel.
Watch out for: Jonathan Joseph. In 2012 the then-London Irish centre was the next big thing, but a combination of injury and loss of form has seen the Bath man slip down the pecking order. This season though (and, to be fair, the second half of last), Joseph has been utterly sublime. He still has a lethal outside break but he now combines it with intelligent and aggressive defensive play and a smart kicking game. There is every chance that a good tournament for Joseph could seal that 13 shirt – he just needs the space to show what he can do.
Prediction: 3rd. I don’t know how many black
cats Lancaster has run over but the injury crisis (and yes it is a crisis) that
has afflicted his squad is one of the worst in memory. Shorn of no less than 9 players who would
expect to be in and around the squad, the England coach has lost many of the
more established players within his side who should have been leaders going
into the World Cup, especially in the centres and in the second row. But there is still talent and power
available, and at Twickenham it is difficult to see them being turned over –
inexperience, however, doesn’t often go forgiven in Cardiff or in Dublin.
Wales
Head Coach: Warren Gatland. The surly Kiwi seems to have a permanently smug expression on his face, and why not? He has overseen two Grand Slams since 2008 and another Six Nations Championship, a successful World Cup run and a victorious Lions tour. I'd be smug, too. His tactics of "Gatland-ball" has its critics but, although you may be able to predict what's going to happen, stopping it is a different question entirely. He knows the strength of the weapons in his armoury and he uses them to great effect.
Captain: Sam Warburton. When not making the news about being signed
up to a central contract, 'Warbs' is…well…not really in the news at all,
really. The flanker is part of a group
of Welsh players who churn in solid displays at regional level before upping it
to arguably-world-class standards in an international shirt. A dip of form in 2012-13 seems an age ago now
as Warburton continuously leads from the front with pace over the park and
aggression – and precision – at the breakdown.
The Lions skipper is also a thoroughly nice chap, by all accounts, too.
Last Year: 3rd. A bit of a mixed bag for the men in red. After the ecstasy of winning the Six Nations Championship in 2013 with one of the great Welsh displays at home against England, Gatland's men stuttered through the 2014 competition, despite destroying the Scottish and French at home. Away from the Millennium Stadium, though, they struggled – comfortably outplayed in Ireland and England. A good job that they have those two at home this year…
Key Player: Dan Biggar.
After years of persisting with the likeable but flakey – and often
mojo-less – Rhys Priestland, Gatland finally seems to have settled on a player
who can act as the link man between an efficient pack and an explosive (not to
mention enormous) set of backs. Biggar
perhaps doesn't offer the off-the-cuff inspiration that Priestland does, but
that does not mean he is not creative – he is intelligent, calm, takes the
right decisions and executes them with precision. And for the man in the 10 shirt to be a
reliable performer, that's a breath of fresh air for many Welsh fans.
One to Watch: Samson Lee.
It's hard to miss him, in fairness, since he looks like a ginger truck,
but the big Scarlets prop has come on in leaps and bounds in recent years. He has always had strength befitting his name
but now he has been able to harness that raw power and compliment it with
excellent scrummaging technique, making him an absolute rock in the set piece. If he can turn the screw on the South African
eight, he will fancy his chances against anyone – it will be interesting to see
how he goes in his first full Six Nations at the coal face. In fairness, though, any prop described by
the great Adam Jones as a 'gem' is always going to be pretty handy…
Prediction: 1st (no Grand Slam). Somehow, Gatland's men seem to have avoided
any significant injury problems whatsoever, with the only 'scare' coming from a
stubbed toe (or something similar) to Jonathan Davies. With the quality of the front line players,
you cannot underestimate the value of having a clean bill of health and, with
Ireland and England at home, I can see them racking up so crucial wins. A trip to Paris against the French may be a
tricky task, but if they get a big win against England this Friday, then it's
hard to see the wheels coming off.
Head Coach: Phillipe Saint-Andre. Somehow.
Saint-Andre strikes me as the David Brent of the coaching world,
navigating his way through international rugby with ill-advised pomposity which
masks borderline incompetence. How he
has remained in his job baffles me almost as much as some of his selection
howlers – persisting with flaky scrum-half Freddie Michelak at fly half, moving
his best centre (Wesley Fofana) out to the wing to name just two. But at least in the last 6 months he seems to
have his side playing at a faster pace and with a coherent game plan – perhaps
now is the time he starts to repay the faith the FRU have shown in him.
Captain: Thierry Dusautoir. The Toulouse man was conspicuous by his
absence last year as Les Bleus struggled to physically match opponents and his
return to the national side this year is a welcome one for French fans. He hasn't exactly been setting the world
alight for his club – but nobody has, to be fair – but the flanker is a
big-game player, bringing out superhuman performances when his side needs it
most. Watch out for him when his side's
backs are against the wall.
Last Year: 4th.
Predictably unpredictable. After
a fine opening win against England, despite being outplayed for large swathes,
Les Blues were horribly inconsistent – stuttering to wins against Italy and
Scotland, collapsing against Wales and falling to a gallant defeat against
champions Ireland. But it was once again
a very negative feeling that was left following the conclusion of the
tournament – Saint-Andre's constant tinkering with the starting line-up ruined
any chances of consistency, the team lacked any kind of Gallic flair and the
Stade de France crowd were growing increasingly disgruntled with the whole
situation.
Key Player: Camille Lopez.
Uh-oh, the French may have just found themselves a gem here. At 25, you could almost say he's a late
bloomer but Lopez really came to prominence in 2013 when he orchestrated the unfancied
Bordeaux-Begles' 41 – 0 destruction of Toulon. Now at Clermont, the talented
fly half seems to have a quality that Les Bleus have been so sorely lacking in
that position for so long – reliability.
Deadly accurate with the boot off the tee or from hand, Lopez is a smart
tactician and a smooth distributor and, despite having just 5 caps, he's been
tipped by the legendary Thomas Castaignede to solve the problems in that 10
jersey. No pressure then.
One to Watch: Teddy Thomas.
Pace – lots of it – and power – plenty of that too. A handy mix for any winger, and deadly when
combined with Thomas' natural knack of wriggling out of tackles and staying on
his feet. A sublime hat-trick on debut
against Fiji last autumn announced his arrival on the international scene, but
this will be his real batptism – and the Racing man will be hoping to produce
more moments of magic like this:
Prediction: 4th.
An improvement in performances if not the end result. Trips to Dublin and Twickenham will prove too
tough a task for Les Bleus but I expect them to cause some damage at home this
year, including against a very strong looking Welsh outfit. Expect a promising tournament where it
finally looks as if the team is 'clicking'.
Head Coach: Vern Cotter. An egghead, in every sense of the word (hard-boiled, of course). Yet another Kiwi (the third in the tournament), he’s gone from coaching one of the best and classiest club sides in Europe – Clermont Auvergne – to coaching one of the most infuriatingly inconsistent. But the signs have been promising – improved displays over the Autumn and the uncovering of some serious talent has given the Murrayfield faithful some genuine hope for the first time in a very long time.
Captain: Greg Laidlaw. The Gloucester man has been handed the arm-band with the eyebrow-raising omission of Kelly Brown, but Laidlaw has been given the job on plenty of occasions. He has always been a reliable source of points from the boot and can dish out some neat service, but before this season his running threat has always been next to negligible. This season, however, he has shown some encouraging signs – particularly in the Autumn Internationals, where he was instrumental in defeating Argentina. If Scotland are to up their attacking game, it has to start with him showing that kind of creativity and awareness.
Last year: 5th. Best not to mention 2014 to any Scottish people you know – if the state of the worm-infested Murrayfield pitch wasn’t embarrassing enough, the poor Scots then suffered the ignominy of being nilled at home by the auld enemy and slaughtered mercilessly in Cardiff by the Welsh; only a last gasp drop goal from an otherwise unimpressive Duncan Weir snatched a late win over Italy in Rome and saved Scotland from collecting the wooden spoon. An uninspiring end to Scott Johnson’s reign.
Key Player: Stuart Hogg. Arguably the only genuine world-class back on show for Scotland, Hogg has been a key figure for Scotland for 3 years now, despite being only 22. With blistering acceleration and an eye for a gap, he is one of the most dangerous counter-attackers in world rugby and, as one of the more experienced men in the Scottish side, he will be charged with leading Vern Cotter’s attack, threatening the outside channels and moving Scotland away from the one-dimensional rugby which has plagued their side for so long. He’ll also want to forget about his last Six Nations appearance, where he was red-carded for an uncharacteristically thuggish shoulder charge on Rhys Priestland.
Watch out for: Alex Dunbar. Of course, Dunbar isn’t an entirely new name to Six Nations fans – the big centre announced himself with a brace of superb tries against Italy last year. But Glasgow fans will waste no time in telling you that Dunbar has taken it to another level for his club this year. Blessed with natural power and physicality in defence, the 6-foot-3 and 16-stone Scot also has an eye for a gap, good pace and the intelligence to pick some gorgeous lines. He’s part of a new breed of genuinely exciting talent that Cotter has at his disposal – and the Kiwi will hope that this season will announce Dunbar as the Scottish equivalent of Jamie Roberts. With a more normal-sized chin.
Prediction: 5th. The promise is there for Cotter’s men and, like the French, I think we will see some improved displays from the men in blue. But they have difficult away fixtures this year in Paris and at Twickenham, although they will fancy their chances at home against anyone – particularly the hapless Italians. They may well spring a surprise or two – Cotter’s men will be eying the Wales and Ireland home fixtures with genuine ambition – but I suspect that they will have to settle for the green shoots of promise this season. And if that can be echoed on the Murrayfield turf, that would be welcome too.
Italy
Head Coach: Jacques Brunel. The Frenchman is one of the most respected figures in world rugby and, up until last year, it looked as if he had been working wonders with the Italian side as well, who claimed Scottish, Irish and French scalps at various points. But 2014 was something of an annus horribilis for Brunel as the Azzurri regressed badly – winless in the Six nations, winless in the summer (where they were defeated by power houses such as Fiji, Japan and Samoa) and won just one of their Autumn matches, a narrow victory over a depleted Samoan side.
Captain: Sergio Parisse. At many times it has been claimed that Parisse is the world’s best number 8, but the truth is that we’ll never know how good he is/could have been because he has often seemingly been fighting battles by himself. What can’t be disputed though, is that he is one of the true talismans in world rugby, carrying hard, offloading and even kicking to great effect – he always plays well but the question is, can his side follow suit?
Last year: 6th. A return to the bad old days for the Italians, where they were used as whipping boys by the French, Irish and English – a way of racking up points. They also went down to Wales in Cardiff but at least gave the men in red a bit of a scare, with Michele Campagnaro emerging as a real talent behind the scrum, but ultimately they were handed the wooden spoon again as they went down in agonising fashion at home against Scotland.
Key Player: Leonardo Ghiraldini. Another world-class operator in the Italian front row, the ex-Treviso man impressed enough in recent seasons to catch the eye of the Leicester Tigers, who know a thing or two about good Italian front rowers. Ghiraldini is probably one of the most underrated players in the game but, with 70 caps to his name, the Italian coaching staff certainly know is value – unflappable in the set piece, a bull with the ball in hand and a nuisance at the breakdown, the Leicester hooker is one man who can genuinely cause problems for opposition packs.
Watch out for: Kelly Haimona. Campagnaro, at just 21, is still a real talent but there will be a lot of pressure of the New Zealand-born Haimona (come on, you didn’t think he was Italian did you?). The youngster started in the 10 shirt for the Azzurri in their only win of 2014 against Samoa and the signs are that he will be handed the playmaker role again for the Six Nations – but he will not have experienced pressure like the kind that this tournament throws up and the cold truth is it could make him, or break him. If he holds his nerve, then the Italians may finally have found somebody to fill the great Diego Dominguez’s boots.
Prediction: 6th. I don’t want to patronise the Italians with claims of ‘they’re always improving’ and that they’re ‘always a dangerous side’ when the fact is that they’re not, at the minute. They were simply very, very poor in 2014 and the state of Italian club rugby at the moment has done very little to lead me to believe that they will show much improvement. It’s a shame as there are some genuinely talented individuals amongst them and they will always cause side’s problems at home, but I cannot see them picking up a win this season either.
What are your predictions for the Six Nations?
No comments:
Post a Comment
Share your views