Valentines Day. A
day of profound statements of love, extravagant purchases in bids to win
affections and forcing singletons to contemplate their very existence. Or, in my personal view, the biggest, most
commercialised pile of tripe since the Crazy Frog song. My girlfriend is a lucky lady (although I am
taking her to the cinema to see some mainstream pornography, apparently). Of course, love will be far from the minds of
England and Italy's starting XVs by the time that kick off comes around at
Twickenham. You would hope so, anyway.
These two sides approach this game from completely
opposite ends of the expectation spectrum.
The hosts, England, are now being prematurely hailed as world beaters
after a fine victory in Cardiff, arguably their best Six Nations display for a
decade, given the circumstances. With
the back-row earning particular praise for an all action display, the losses of
Tom Wood and Ben Morgan feel slightly less significant than before, and trio
were ably supported by strong showings from Jonathan Joseph, George Ford, Ben
Youngs and Mike Brown. All players in
key positions, and it bodes well for England that they are starting to
click. Of particular note was the way
the forward runners manage to integrate themselves into the attack of the
shoulders of Youngs and Ford.
Previously, far too often, we have seen the forwards rumble around
slowly and then the backs spin it wide and end up nowhere. Here, England played at a high tempo and with
Youngs and Ford playing flat, the runners were able to pick dangerous holes of
their shoulders – Lancaster will want more of the same this weekend.
Italy, of course, went into last weekend's game against
Ireland as underdogs despite beating the Emerald Isle there in 2013. The sad fact is that the Azzurri have
regressed since that heady day, and won just one match in 2014, at home against
Samoa – a run which included away losses against the Samoans, Fiji and
Japan. There are talented players within
their ranks, of course, legends such as Parisse, Castrogiovanni and Bortolami,
but the same old positions come back as problems for the men in blue. The half backs remain unconvincing, with 28
year-old Kiwi Kelly Haimona looking like a physical presence with relatively
little in the way of creative spark, and the centres look shorn of class –
particularly now youngster Michele Campagnaro has been ruled out with a knee
injury. Of course, they managed to
frustrate Ireland for large portions of the game – their defence was stifling
and aggressive, their set piece solid – but in terms of a tangible threat they
seem to be sorely lacking in invention.
And Twickenham is not a place to come and chance your arm in that
respect.
Yes, England have been overhyped since that superb win in
Cardiff, and in many ways the Italian game is a lose-lose situation; unless
they win by a cricket score, their performance will be picked apart by the
media. And with rain forecast, there is
a chance that the Italians will succeed in turning the game into an
arm-wrestle. But the fact is, England
will – well, they should – have too much in the locker for the Azzurri.
It may be Valentines Day, but an upset is out of the
question for the rugby romantic.
England Team
News
England are unchanged from the side that beat Wales last
weekend. Stuart Lancaster had hoped to
pick Geoff Parling among the replacements but the Leicester lock is yet to recover
from a knee injury, and George Kruis and Jonathan Joseph make their first
Twickenham starts.
Starting
Line-up: 15-Mike Brown, 14-Anthony
Watson, 13-Jonathan Joseph, 12-Luther Burrell, 11-Jonny May, 10-George Ford,
9-Ben Youngs; 8-Billy Vunipola, 7-Chris Robshaw (captain), 6-James Haskell,
5-George Kruis, 4-Dave Attwood, 3-Dan Cole, 2-Dylan Hartley, 1-Joe Marler
Subs: 16-Tom
Youngs, 17-Mako Vunipola, 18-Kieran Brookes, 19-Tom Croft, 20-Nick Easter,
21-Richard Wigglesworth, 22-Danny Cipriani, 23-Billy Twelvetrees
Key Player
Ben Youngs. The
Leicester man had a superb outing against Wales and, in my view, should have
been handed the man of the match award.
His ability to snipe past tight 5 forwards and create confusion was the
key behind England's improved attack after the break and reminded us of that
spark when he broke onto the scene in 2010.
The problem with Youngs though is that he has been infuriatingly
inconsistent in previous seasons gone – brilliant one match, abysmal the
next. But the captaincy at Leicester has
done him the world of good – his form has been building all year and, now he
has his tail up, it is his job to keep the tempo up and ensure England aren't
dragged into an arm wrestle by Italians.
Italy make four changes from the side beaten by Ireland
with Mauro Bergamasco and Marco Bortolami returning to the pack along with prop
Alberto De Marchi. Giovanbattista
Venditti starts at left wing, Luke McLean goes to full-back and Andrea Masi
moves to inside centre.
Starting
Line-up: 15-Luke McLean, 14-Leonardo
Sarto, 13-Luca Morisi, 12-Andrea Masi, 11-Giovanbattista Venditti, 10-Kelly Haimona,
9-Edoardo Gori; 8-Sergio Parisse, 7-Francesco Minto, 6-Mauro Bergamasco,
5-Marco Bortolami, 4-George Biagi, 3-Martin Castrogiovanni, 2-Leonardo
Ghiraldini, 1-Alberto De Marchi
Subs: 16-Andrea
Manici, 17-Matias Aguero, 18-Dario Chistolini, 19-Joshua Furno, 20-Samuela
Vunisa, 21-Guglielmo Palazzani, 22-Tommaso Allan, 23-Giulio Bisegni
Key Player
Kelly Haimona. The
new fly half did a solid job in the autumn internationals and certainly wasn't
poor against Ireland, but 'not poor' is not really what the Italians need. Haimona is a big unit for a fly half and can
certainly offer some ballast, but that won't worry strong defences like
England's – the Azzurri need creativity and tactical awareness. If Italy are to have a sniff in this game he
will need to play an astute tactical game – getting his side into the right
areas with the boot. If he can do that,
then the men in white will become frustrated, the home crowd will grow
restless, and the visitors will be in with shout.
Key Battle
Billy Vunipola v Sergio Parisse. Two very different number eights but they are
both critical to the way their side plays.
It was no coincidence that England's threat grew throughout the game as
Billy Vunipola began to make more yards on the carry. Once he beats the first man, he often sucks
in two or three more defenders and, with quick ball, that creates plenty of
gaps for England to exploit. Parisse, as
is well-known, has been one of the world's best eights for some time and is
altogether more athletic prospect than Vunipola, getting involved in all facets
of the game – carrying, passing and tackling.
He was, however, kept quiet against Ireland and his side simply have to
find a way to help get him into the game so he can influence proceedings; you
get the feeling that the man who we so the most of out of these two will decide
whether we have a romp or a nail-biter on our hands.
Prediction
I don't think we'll see the all-singing, all-dancing win
that some sections of the media seem to expect against Italy. Against a side determined to slow the game
down and play with extreme physicality, and with conditions forcast to be wet,
I suspect that we will see a relatively tight game for 50 or so minutes. England though, do have their tails up and
have more than enough class to see off any potential upsets – although they
will be scrutinised more than ever this weekend. England
by 19.
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