Super XV Big Match Preview - Waratahs v Brumbies

Every side will go through at least one, if not several, key moments throughout the year.  We’ve had several already for most of the sides in the competition – the Highlanders failing to follow up their first victory with another win, the Force turning over the Reds at Suncorp and Kurtley Beale swinging away at his teammates after a couple of beers on the team coach.  You can guarantee that there’ll be plenty more too, from attempts to gain key wins over rivals, to valiant efforts to keep Kurtley away from the tragic sauce-and-team-transport combo.  And for the Waratahs and the Brumbies, they may not know for sure which way the result will go this weekend, but they will know that the outcome may well prove to be one of ‘those’ moments in deciding how their season will end.

The Tahs claimed a superbly hard fought win over the Stormers last weekend to prove that they are serious about pushing for a Wildcard place, but it will mean nothing unless they can follow it up against the Aussie Conference’s top side, the Brumbies.  The NSW men have looked promising all season, but their growth with each game has demonstrated an attacking cohesiveness that fans haven’t seen from the blues for the best part of a decade.  With powerful blokes up front like Kane Douglas and Michael Hooper building momentum and drawing in defenders, Bernard Foley and Israel Folau and co have been irresistible at times with their fast and accurate attack patterns.  They’ve been great to watch and I am happy to admit that I’ve been caught up with “Izzy fever” (as my mate put it), and Folau’s battle with Mogg is the battle between Australia’s two form fullbacks.  There are still questions to be asked about their ability to work well under pressure and their decision making in promising positions, and if there’s one team out there who will be well placed to ask those questions, it will be the Brumbies.

The men from ACT also have bragging rights leading into this game after thumping a sorry Tahs outfit in round 4, coming out winners by 30-6.  The visitors will be aware though that this is a very different Waratahs side to the one that was still learning to play together at the beginning of the competition, and they’ll also remember that this time last year they also topped the Aussie Conference, only to have their crown stolen by the Reds – who are breathing down their neck again this year.  The pressure is on the leaders to show that some of the cracks that have appeared of late are issues that are easily fixed, and they’ll be looking to bring their fantastic back 3 into the game, with Henry Speight, Joe Tomane and Jesse Mogg all possessing bags of pace and a good nose for the tryline.  Of course, captain Ben Mowen will be keen to make sure his boys do the gritty work first and, backed up by Stephen Moore and George Smith, the number 8 is not lacking in experienced deputies to help him grind down the Waratahs’ resistance at source.

The stage is set for one side’s big moment.  A win for the Waratahs would propel them into Conference-challenger territory, whilst a Brumbies victory would continue their march to the playoffs.  Whatever happens, I’m sure there’ll be enough memorable moments within this one game to make it unmissable.  

Waratahs Team News

Wallabies winger Drew Mitchell, who is leaving Australian rugby for France at the end of the international season, replaces Peter Betham on the left wing having returned to action via the bench against the Stormers after missing two matches with a hamstring strain. He is one of two changes to the starting side to play the Brumbies, with tight-head prop Paddy Ryan making his fourth start this season in place of Wallabies front-rower Sekope Kepu.

Starting Line up:  Israel Folau; Cam Crawford, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Rob Horne, Drew Mitchell; Bernard Foley, Brendan McKibbin; Wycliff Palu, Michael Hooper, Dave Dennis (captain); Kane Douglas, Sitaleki Timani; Paddy Ryan, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson.

Subs: John Ulugia, Sekope Kepu, Will Skelton, Mitchell Chapman, Matt Lucas, Berrick Barnes, Peter Betham.

Key Player

Drew Mitchell.  The Tahs winger is back in the side despite announcing he will be Europe-bound next year, but the reason for that is the fact that the Wallaby remains a class act.  He may not be the fastest, but he has a wonderful running style that allows him to beat defenders with ease and he's deceptively strong as well.  But what really sets him apart is his support play and work rate – at his best he seems to be all over the park, making yards outwide and through the middle.  With plenty of quick ball hopefully on offer on Saturday, his ability to create the extra man by coming off his wing will be a key attacking weapon for the hosts.

 

Brumbies Team News

The Brumbies have made two changes to the team that lost to the Crusaders before their bye with Scott Sio returning to the starting line up. Sio has been named at loose-head prop and Scott Fardy returns from injury at lock.

Starting Line up:  Jesse Mogg; Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano, Joe Tomane; Matt Toomua, Nic White; Ben Mowen (captain), George Smith, Peter Kimlin; Sam Carter, Scott Fardy; Dan Palmer, Stephen Moore, Ben Alexander.

Subs: Siliva Siliva, Ruan Smith, Fotu Auelua, Colby Faingaa, Ian Prior, Robbie Coleman, Pat McCabe.

Key Player

Christian Leali'ifano.  The Brumbies inside centre has come of age this year – mainly because he has managed to avoid getting himself crocked for half the season – and we're finally seeing the full reach of this guy's talent.  The ability he has to vary his game is superb, with a decent step, great pass and an eye for a gap in the more open games, and a strong kicking game for the more cagey affairs.  His ability to create space for his runners will be key to setting loose the searing pace outside of him.

 

Key Battle

Michael Hooper v George Smith.  With great match-ups all over the park, I could quite easily have gone for Folau v Mogg, but this is the one I'm really looking forward to seeing.  With Pocock out injured, there are many who see the battle for the Australian 7 jersey as being a straight shoot out between these 2 men (which, in my mind, is a bit harsh on Liam Gill).  Both compact, powerful players, Hooper offers a powerful carrying option and a striking turn of pace, whilst Smith offers a decade's worth of international know-how and trickery, and one of the finest rugby brains in the game.  With both sides intending to unleash their backline, quick ball will be key – whoever can get their hands on the pill the most, even if they don't turn it over, will probably win the game for his side.

 

Prediction

The Waratahs will now face a true test of how serious they are about pushing for a playoff spot at the end of the season.  The hosts will be full of confidence after turning over the Stormers but the Brumbies are a different proposition, with the ability to turn defence into attack with inventiveness and speed.  This one is going to be a colossal battle between two of the most entertaining teams in Super Rugby at the moment, and I'm going to lean towards a surprise home win – Waratahs by 6.

Let’s have a breeze through the rest of the weekend’s fixtures –

Hurricanes v Chiefs – The Chiefs seem to be blowing hot and cold at the moment, and their scrappy win last weekend was another sign of their vulnerability when put under pressure.  That said, they're still getting the wins and I can see them getting another against the Canes in Wellington.  Chiefs by 8.

Rebels v Stormers – The Rebels are quickly becoming the nearly men of the league, embarking on remarkable comebacks but consistently just coming up short.  The Stormers though are not exactly on fire themselves, after their narrow defeat to the Waratahs last weekend.  I can see this one being a close one, with the talented Rebels backs taking on a notoriously stingy Stormers defence, but I going to plump for a surprise home win.  Rebels by 2.

Force v Sharks – The Force have been more competitive than a lot of people expected this season, and they are consistently running big teams who underestimate them very close.  The Sharks won't make that mistake though, they are desperate for a win after a spate of key injuries has seen them lose 5 on the bounce.  Another close one, and I think the Sharks will want it more.  Sharks by 3.

Crusaders v Blues – The Blues continue to impress and win games, but playing away in Canterbury is always a tricky assignment, even if the Crusaders have been inconsistent this year.  But the hosts have Kieran Read back in their ranks and the number 8 should bolster the pack and provide the leadership needed to gain a win here.  Crusaders by 7.

Bulls v Highlanders – The Highlanders wind me up.  They look so good on paper – even good on the pitch on the odd occasion – and yet have got an inexplicable losing habit.  Even when they did finally win, they followed it up with a wretched defeat at the hands of minnows the Kings.  Loftus is not a fun place to go when you're lacking confidence.  Bulls by 14.

Cheetahs v Reds – The Cheetahs good form deserted them last week but they shouldn't be too worried – they've already exceeded expectations this year.  That's not to say they won't be up for their game on Saturday, but they'll be facing a Reds side who look on the cusp of exploding into life and they are desperate to pressurise the Brumbies at the top of the Aussie conference.  Reds by 4.

Super XV Big Match Review - Waratahs 21 - 15 Stormers

Very occasionally, in any sport, you stumble across a gem.  You know, the sort of player who makes something out of nothing, makes you sit up and shout ‘wow’ – in the mould of Jason Robinson, Lote Tuqiri, or Henry Paul.  That last one was in there because I was running out of decent rugby league converts who have made the grade in union.  But the Waratahs can smugly say they have come up trumps with their main investment – the ex-NRL Superstar/AFL Player, Israel Folau.

Of course, saying you’ve just ‘stumbled’ across a gem is slightly different to spending shed loads on transferring the kid from the upper echelons of another sport, but the fact still remains that, in Folau, the Tahs have uncovered the tournament’s biggest metres maker and one of the best one-on-one attackers in the Southern Hemisphere.  And, as with all good players from an under-7 level onwards, all you need to do is give them the ball (although, by professional standards, you don’t expect the key player to be a prematurely-pubic kid with a full on beard, like you would find at junior level).

Not that Izzy got any ball in the opening stages, though.  Instead it was the Waratahs forwards who were calmly controlling possession in the opposition half, with Dave Dennis in particular putting himself about of the carry.  The visitors, though, provided a bit more resistance than the atrocious Kings the round before, knocking any attack back with apparent ease and in fact, through defensive pressure, earned themselves a penalty after 15 minutes following destructive work from Siya Kolisi.  The 3 pointer was knocked over by Joe Pietersen and, despite all the possession of the hosts, they found themselves behind.

Step forward Israel Folau.  Five minutes after the Pietersen penalty, the Tahs struck back with a piece of magic that has become a trademark this year.  Following concerted pressure into the Stormers 22, Bernard Foley opted for a cross-field kick with his options limited – fortunately, Foloau (AFL specialist) was there to tap the ball away from Bryan Habana into the arms of onrushing winger Cam Crawford, who dotted down for a score.  Scrum half Brendan McKibbin missed the conversion but added another penalty to make the score 8 – 3 at the half time whistle.

The break signified a change in dominance, with the visitors’ pack showing more aggression at the breakdown and pressurising the Tahs into making basic handling mistakes.  Joe Pietersen had his kicking boots on, potting three early penalties to one from McKibbin to put the Stormers in front, before a fourth 15 minutes from time seemingly sealed a tight game at 15-11.

Step forward Israel Folau.  Again.  This time, the brave call came from Dave Dennis, the captain, who opted to go for the winning try as opposed to the pressurised goal kick – and it ultimately worked.  After spurning a couple of kickable penalties in favour of attacking the line, the break came- a try to that man Folau after good lead-up work from the forwards and a nice delayed pass from Berrick Barnes. Barnes added the extras and the Tahs were up 18-15 with just minutes to play.  Barnes added a 50 metre beauty before the end to add some gloss to the scoreline, but to the watcher, this was an exceptionally tight game that was won more by perseverance than flair.

That said, if you can persevere and throw a gem like Izzy into an equation, then you’ll always end up with a useful result.

What else was happening across Super Rugby at the weekend?

Chiefs 22 – 21 Force:  A lacklustre Chiefs side scraped past a stubborn Force outfit after a stirring fightback in the second half from the visitors.  The hosts were outscored with only Lelia Masaga touching down for the Kiwi side and Pat Dellit scoring a double for the Force.

Reds 32 – 17 Sharks:  The Reds condemned the Sharks to further misery as they went on a first half blitz that saw the hosts secure a first half try bonus point.  The Queensland outfit scored tries through the Faingaa brothers and Rod Davies (2), whilst the visitors added two second half efforts through Piet Lindeque and Derick Minnie.

Cheetahs 34 – 39 Hurricanes:  The Cheetahs were surprisingly outmuscled at home against a powerful and precise Canes side.  The hosts grabbed 3 tries with Coenraad Oosthuizen (2) and Robert Ebersohn going over, but the New Zealand side were too strong – getting 5-pointers through Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, TJ Perenara and Victor Vito.

Southern Kings 34 -27 Highlanders:  The Highlanders flattered to deceive once again as they failed to build on their first victory of the season, going down in an entertaining game in Port Elizabeth.  The South African side scored tries through captain Luke Watson (2), Cornell du Preez and Shaun Venter, with the visitors responding through Colin Slade, Brad Thorn, Shaun Treeby and Hosea Gear.  I have no idea how they keep losing.

Blues 36 – 32 Rebels:  The Rebels once again proved themselves a difficult side to put away after a rousing second half comeback, despite being blitzed in the opening 40.  The Blues scored 6 tries with Frank Halai grabbing a hatrick and Francis Salai (2) and Rene Ranger also crossing, whilst the Rebels grabbed a bonus point themselves through Mitch Inman (2), Scott Higginbotham, Lachlan Mitchell and Jason Woodward.

Aviva Premiership Semi Final Review - Saracens 13 - 27 Northampton Saints

I've written on here a fair bit about Sarries' marketing.  I happen to think they've done really well in building a club that stands out from all the rest, whether it's using cheerleaders, big money half time drop goal prizes or nail-scrapingly irritating music to be played after every Saracens score.  These are all gimmicks, essentially, but every single one of them has come off in one way or another – they have a great team ethos after various club trips, they're attracting new fans with their carnival-style approach to home games and their winning matches with their well-publicised wolf-pack mentality.  Surely they didn't need another one for Sunday in their game against perennial semi-final losers Northampton?

Well yes.  And normally I'd say go for it – it's just a bit of fun and it all helps generate a family friendly atmosphere.  But here, Saracens chose to have the players' wives, girlfriends and children lining up on the pitch to welcome the home side out.  For me, this is a big mistake.  For the last 2 hours they would have been getting focussed before working themselves up into a near-frenzy just before they came out onto the pitch.  Now, I'm sure when most people are faced with their other half or their offspring they don’t find rage to be the prevailing emotion (I'm sure there are exceptions), and part of me wonders if this tacky move actually took the sting or edge out of the men in black before they'd even got onto the field, rather than increasing the emotion.

There was nothing tacky about the visitors’ start though – the Saints pack came tearing into their counterparts with a fury we haven’t seen too often this season.  Suane Tonga’uiha thumped Schalk Brits backwards in a tackle to give Stephen Myler a shot at goal, which the fly half spooned wide, but this was just the beginning.  High pressure defence forced Joel Tomkins into an overly ambitious offload, and from Jamie Elliot on the left, the ball seemed to be offloaded by every single member of the Northampton pack before finding Ken Pisi all the way over on the right, and after the Samoan had made inroads into the Saracens 22, Kelly Brown was forced into conceding another penalty shot.  Myler missed again, but Sarries were rattled.

 Saracens were struggling to get any continuous possession – and when they did, they were invariably undone by strong Northampton defence (twice through the un-gigantic form of Jamie Elliot) or by poor decision making - with Owen Farrell grubbering dead after Alex Goode and David Strettle had made decent inroads.   And they were made to pay for their imprecision after 20 minutes, when the Saints drove over the line from a lineout 10 metres out, with giant prop Brian Mujati the man to wrestle the ball down.  Myler discovered his kicking boots and nailed the conversions, and the underdogs had a thoroughly deserved lead.

That 7 point advantage didn’t last for long though.  Two minutes later, with what seemed to be his first touch of the game, Chris Ashton was hammered by Samu Manoa and the ball spurted free from the ruck (somewhat suspiciously) into the hands of Dylan Hartley, who transferred the ball via Lee Dickson and Christian Day to Elliot, who had the fairly simple task of outstripping Steve Borthwick to complete a dream 180 seconds for the Saints.  Meanwhile, things went from bad to worse for the men in black as Charlie Hodgson was forced off due to a knock to the knee he sustained in the first 10 minutes, before Farrell conceded his second penalty of the game and Myler made it a 17 point advantage.  Farrell himself then had a relatively simple penalty attempt following an infringement from Tom Wood, after the England flanker had clattered Brits, but the Lions tourist summed up Saracens’ first half by scuffing his kick out to the left.  Northampton booted the ball out to bring on the half time break, having nilled the hosts for the first 40.

 Saracens needed a big recovery in the second half and, briefly, it seemed they’d get a perfect start.  Mako Vunipola started hammering into the Northampton line and Duncan Taylor hit a gorgeous line to take play into the Saints 22, before David Strettle burst through on the angle.  He seemed certain to score, especially on current form, but he inexplicably checked his run and ignored the unmarked Ashton on the outside, allowing Ben Foden to get underneath him and prevent the try.  Northampton cleared their lines after destroying the host's scrum, but Sarries continued to press, only to find themselves continually stalling at the 22 metre line – a result of powerful Saints defence from the likes of Manoa and Courtney Lawes and continued hesitance at the breakdown by Neil de Kock.

Finally, after 50 minutes, they received some reward for their perseverance, with Farrell knocking over a penalty goal before following up with another 3 pointer after Christian Day was marched back 10 metres for throwing the ball away after being pinged by JP Doyle.  Was this the start of the Saracens come back?  When things finally started going according to script?  Northampton answered that emphatically just 5 minutes later with a try to effectively seal the game.  Hartley was mullered just outside the home side's 22, providing Saracens with a hint of a turnover and drawing right winger Chris Ashton in.  This left replacement 9, Richard Wigglesworth, alone on the blindside and Lee Dickson, quick as a flash, exploited this by sending GJ Van Velze streaking down the touchline for another try.  Myler hit another conversion, and it was game over.

Despite Jamie Elliot being sinbinned for tackling Farrell in the air just after the hour mark, Saracens could only muster up one score on the ground where they have been so dominant of late, with Duncan Taylor stepping over for a converted score.  The game ebbed out with the Saints defence remaining rigid, and the East Midlanders had secured themselves a famous victory.

For the hosts, it's not quite back to the drawing board – this has still been a fine season where they have finished on top of the league, and next year they'll have a whole season to rebuild Allianz Park as a fortress.  But for the visitors, it's 4 years of hurt erased, doubters proved wrong – and finally the Saints get go marching on to Twickenham.  An East Midlands derby for a Premiership final – I don't think you need many gimmicks to market that one.

 

Saracens Player Ratings

Alex Goode – 6 – Some nice counters and decent kicks, but unable to make significant inroads into a brutally stubborn Northampton defence.

Chris Ashton – 5 – A couple of promising bursts after a quiet opening, but got needlessly pulled into a ruck to open the way for the Saints' 3rd try.
Joel Tomkins – 4 – A naïve performance.  Too many times he gave the ball away in promising positions with attempted miracle offloads.  He looked shellshocked at the resistance he was facing.
Owen Farrell – 4 – He is so much better than this.  The semi-final brought out the worst in his game – poor decision making, lacklustre execution and petulance.
David Strettle – 5 – Like Ashton, made a couple of sharp bursts but ruined his good work with a mistake – this time not finishing/passing a great opportunity for a try early in the second half.
Charlie Hodgson – 6 – Poor Charlie.  Didn't really get a chance to showcase his attacking ability before a knee injury forced him off.  Tackled and kicked well whilst he was on, mind.
Neil de Kock – 4 – Surprisingly, far too hesitant at the base of rucks throughout the game, allowing himself to get caught on several occasions and sap momentum out of his side's attack.
Mako Vunipola – 6 – Had a hard time in the scrum but at least he kept charging whenever he got a chance, being one of the few Sarries men to make yards.
Schalk Brits – 4 – Just not his day.  The lineout wobbled, and although he put in an admirable shift, seemed to spend most of his day getting absolutely clobbered in contact.
Matt Stevens – 5 – Like his fellow prop, had a hard time in the scrums and struggled to make an impact in the loose.  At least he didn't give as many penalties away this time.
Steve Borthwick – 5 – Failed to rule the lineout like he would have hoped and couldn't stem the Northampton's pack dominance in the first half.
Alistair Hargreaves – 6 – Got around the park well in an attempt to make a nuisance out of himself but it was a day when he came up against a pack possessed.
Kelly Brown – 6 – Gave a couple of penalties away in the first half but also made a significant bust to get Sarries onto the front foot and never stopped working.
Andy Saull – 7 – A good final appearance for the young flanker.  Charged with venom and tackled his socks off, including one textbook hit on Mujati.  It wasn't enough though.
Jackson Wray – 5 – Utterly, utterly anonymous, particularly in the first half.  As a number 8 he should have been leading the resistance to get stuck into the Saints pack, but he was nowhere to be seen.

Subs

John Smit – 5 – Always physical but not enough explosiveness to make the difference here.
Carlos Nieto – Not enough time to make an impact.
Rhys Gill – Not enough time to make an impact.
Mouritz Botha – Not enough time to make an impact.
George Kruis – 6 – Tried to up the home side's energy and gave a decent account of himself.
Richard Wigglesworth – 6 – His service was an improvement and he at least provided entertainment with a hilarious tantrum late on.
Duncan Taylor – 7 – A good game from the big Scot.  Made holes in the middle and scored a try in an accomplished display.
Chris Wyles – 6 – A bit quiet from the American, but then again, he was never really given a chance to show his speed.

 

Northampton Player Ratings

Ben Foden – 6 – Pretty quiet from the Saints flyer, sweeping up well but it seems a long time since we've seen him shred a defence, doesn't it.
Ken Pisi – 6 – A couple of lively darts in the first half were impressive before he drifted out of the game – he remains a dangerous runner, though.
George Wilson – 7 – Considering he was out of position, he was excellent.  Part of a colossal defensive effort and his boot was a useful weapon for the visitors (even if he did misplace a couple).
Luther Burrell – 6 – A quiet but effective performance from the big man, dealing with Tomkins well and getting his side on the front foot with the ball in hand.
Jamie Elliot – 8 – A couple of surprisingly big hits stopped Sarries' attacks dead, and then finished well for his try.  Always a danger, it's just a shame he saw yellow for a clumsy challenge.
Stephen Myler – 7 – After a dodgy start, old crazy eyes had a field day with the boot, nailing a selection of tricky kicks to really but the nail into the hosts' coffin.
Lee Dickson – 8 – A really intelligent performance from the 9.  He directed his pack well and his quick thinking led to 2 of his side's tries.
Soane Tonga'uiha – 7 – A big performance from 'Tiny'.  Took apart Stevens in the scrum and carried the ball with real relish, bringing an ultra-physical presence into the game.
Dylan Hartley – 8 – Massive statement from the Lions hooker.  He was everywhere and at his abrasive best throughout, causing havoc in the rucks and leading the charge with customary aggression.
Brian Mujati – 8 – Like Tonga'uiha, won his scrum battle and showed up well in the loose, but bagged himself a fine try as well from a rolling maul.  Saints will miss this duo next year.
Courtney Lawes – 9 – Awesome.  A big presence at the breakdown, he was a huge factor in the visitors' dominance in the first half.  Made a couple of trademark hits as well.
Christian Day – 7 – Really got stuck into the hosts' lineout and, although he lacks the explosiveness of his second row partner, that would have really hurt Saracen pride.
Callum Clark – 6 – A quieter member of the Saints pack, but still part of a big collective effort that saw the home side looking shell-shocked after 40 minutes.  Managed to get Owen Farrell's back up, too.
Tom Wood – 6 – Interesting from the newly-appointed England skipper.  Some huge hits in defence were undone by some handling howlers – but, once again, led from the front when it looked like Saracens might be creeping back in.
Samu Manoa – 9 – Phenomenal from the big American.  He didn't just tackle Sarries' runners, he disintegrated them.  A colossal presence both with and without the ball and a chief reason behind Saints' physical dominance.  Man of the Match.

Subs

Alex Waller – Not enough time to make an impact.

Tom Mercey – Not enough time to make an impact.
Phil Dowson – 7 – Impressive cameo, helping Saints seal the game by making a couple of important turnovers.
GJ Van Velze – 7 – Great movement and opportunism for his try and he brought energy and dynamism to Saints' game.
Martin Roberts – Not enough time to make an impact.
Tom May – Not enough time to make an impact.

Aviva Premiership Semi Final Review - Leicester Tigers 33 - 16 Harlequins

As a die-hard rugby fan, there’s not too many things I’d take from football and put into the egg-shaped game.  It’s difficult to imagine Paul O’Connell, for example, leaping squealing into the air clutching his ankle as soon as somebody gets within 2 metres of him, or Adam Jones taking off his shirt and swinging it round his head after scoring a rare try (we can all be grateful for that).  But the one thing I would like to see more in rugby, that you see often in football, are good club songs.  Not ones that involve personal insults or invitations to have an almighty scraps, but a good repertoire of uplifting songs to get behind your team.  The Welsh and Irish are alright at it, admittedly (think ‘Fields of Athenry’ for Munster, and any hymn about food for the Welsh), but the English are pants.  From the Northampton’s horrendously repetitive “When the Saints go marching in”, to Harlequins’ tedious “Come all within”, these songs may be fine on their own once or twice a game, but these are the only chants these clubs have – and so you’re subjected to them at least 42 times a game. But by far the worst of the bunch, when it comes to songs, are the Leicester Tigers.

I find it amazing that the biggest, best supported and most successful club of the last 20 years can only muster 2 chants, both of which consist of a slightly differing drone of the word “Tigers”.  Even opposition fans have more tuneful songs about Leicester – namely the envy fuelled “Same old Leicester, always cheating” which is sang with wonderful verve at Kingsholm in particular.  Yep, the superb Welford Road crowd are noisy, partisan, intimidating and passionate – and utterly devoid of musical imagination.  Not that music was on everyone’s minds on Saturday afternoon – the Tigers had a semi-final to win and a score to settle against a Harlequins side who had turned them over on four out of their last five encounters – including twice at Welford Road. 

But it was the hosts who started the better, with Ben Youngs putting in a gorgeous kick behind Ugo Monye to gain territory before George Robson was penalised for pulling down Geoff Parling in the lineout.  Captain Toby Flood stepped up and nailed a difficult first kick to give Leicester a 3-0 lead.  But that was about as good as it got for the first half for the Tigers, as Quins began to edge to close contact exchanges and forced Leicester into making mistakes.  Firstly, Toby Flood kicked out on the full having taken the ball back into the 22, before Dan Cole slapped the ball out of Care’s hands whilst diving off his feet in the ruck to concede an easy 3-pointer for Nick Evans.

The mistakes kept coming – Flood kicked the ball dead from halfway, Dan Cole smeared a gigantic bogey over his face – and Quins grew in confidence, going for touch from a kickable penalty and, from a resulting scrum, James Johnston marmalised Logovi’i Munipola and Evans slotted another 3 points from an easier position.  The Tigers were struggling for rhythm, and even when Tom Youngs burst through the middle off his brother’s pass, Flood came up short from a subsequent penalty.  The game was starting to bubble nicely though, with both sides showing ambition in attack with a Mike Brown burst through midfield and another Tom Youngs break both ultimately coming to nothing but signifying both side’s positive intent.  Despite the fact that the Tigers were largely taking a hold on possession, they were continually barrelled back by superb defence from the visitors, with Maurie Fa’asavalu putting him some crunching hits and Luke Wallace turning quality ball over to take all the momentum out of the host’s phases.

When Harlequins did go down the other end, they came within a whisker of scoring themselves.  James Johnston had been held up just short when Danny Care picked and dived over on the blindside – it was a sharp piece of play that looked for all the world like it would be a try, but instead Tom “Stretch Armstrong” Croft showed unbelievable reflexes to hurl himself into Care at full stretch and knock the England 9 into touch before he could make the line.  It would prove to be a game changing moment because, although Mathew Tait made a try saver of his own on George Lowe 10 minutes later, the Leicester defence held firm, despite another Evans penalty.

This was becoming frantic, chaotic and incredibly compelling to watch.  Danny Care made a significant dart into the Leicester 22 before sweeping up superbly when a teasing kick from Flood had invited Niki Goneva to charge onto it with the try line beckoning – he may have prevented a try but he couldn’t stop the penalty when Tom Casson failed to roll away after making a tackle 10 metres out.  As the first half drew to the end, both sides were desperate to go in at half time in the ascendency, and the sheer pace of play led to a series of turnovers in midfield – eventually it came out in Leicester’s hands, with Ben Youngs flicking the ball via Jordan Crane to Goneva, who shot down the left touchline, brushed off Tom Williams, and jogged it round under posts.  It gave the Tigers a 13 – 9 lead at half time, which was harsh on Harlequins, but teed up a sensational second half after a breathless first.

As the second period started, you could sense a slight change in the balance of the game.  Instead of the Harlequins defence piling on the pressure, it was the Tigers who were relentlessly aggressive in contact, earning penalties and territory early on.  The visitors held out for the first 10 minutes before another match-changing moment – Tait bumped off Tom Williams before stepping inside the attempted recovering tackle, accelerated away from Evans and then had his pass to the onrushing Crane knocked on by Care.  Referee Greg Garner did not hesitate and showed yellow, which seemed harsh given that replays showed Care holding his arms out to make a tackle rather than reach for the ball.  But the decision was made, and the hosts began to dominate.  Despite Flood missing the resulting penalty, Ben Youngs, Crane and Munipola were starting to make significant dents around the fringes, and 6 minutes later Flood made amends with a 3 pointer after Marler was penalised for offside.  Then, just before Quins got their 15^th man back, Tigers got the breakthrough they were looking for.  Tait was at the centre of the good work again, wriggling free from Brown and Wallace to make inroads before the ball found its way into the hands of Tuilagi, who beat Ben Botica and passed inside for Niall Morris to run in under the posts.  It was a cruel blow for the visitors, but a real sign of the powerful grip that Tigers now had on this game.

In fact, they were rampant.  Even with 15 men back on the field, the reigning Champions couldn’t prevent Leicester from winning every contact and finding gaps all over the park, and after just 3 minutes of restarting the game they found themselves behind their own sticks again following a remarkable score.  Botica spilled a high kick from Flood, before the ball was fed into the hands of Croft 60 metres out, and the England blindside hit the gas and motored away from Wallace and Karl Dickson to score an unbelievable try in the corner.  It should also be pointed out that this superb try also hid another sort of gem – namely Dan Cole absolutely clattering his captain, Flood, as the fly half chased his own kick.  Cole didn’t seem to notice.

Leicester didn’t seem to notice the game was won, either.  Five minutes later they were at it again, with slick hands sending Morris free down the right and his sublime offload gave Tait the chance to coast in for a deserved score.  It was now a rout.  With that, Tigers emptied their bench and some of their momentum dissipated, but nobody could deny this was their day – even if the visitors did come back with a fine consolation try before the end, with a lovely offload from Tom Williams putting Ross Chisholm for a score.  It was a testament to the fighting spirit of Harlequins, but the day belonged to the Tigers.

33 – 16 was the final score, and Leicester had booked themselves on their annual pilgrimage to Twickenham for the 9^th successive year.  “Same old Leicester, always winning” came a small chant from a small corner of the crowd before quickly shutting up for fears of fellow Tigers’ fans’ heads exploding at the thought of a new song.  But another trip to Twickenham, and a silverware send off for club legends Geordan Murphy and Martin Castrogiovanni?  That would be something to sing about.

Leicester Player Ratings

Mathew Tait – 9 – Magnificent stuff.  Rock solid under the high ball, surprisingly powerful in contact and absolutely dazzling in open play, with mesmeric footwork and pace.  Back to his best.

Niall Morris – 7 – So unflashy and yet so effective.  Great tracking run for his try and fantastic offload for Tait’s score.
Manu Tuilagi – 7 – Quieter than Leicester would like again, but got through a lot of grunt work, delivered a couple of big hits and made a fantastic break for Leicester’s second.
Anthony Allen – 7 – Another unsung hero, made smart decisions throughout the game and marshalled the defence against a dangerous opposition backline superbly.
Niki Goneva – 7 – Sure, it sometimes seems like he has covered his hands with grease before games, but all is forgiven when he can finish like he did for his first.  Brilliant balance and power.
Toby Flood – 6 – Some average kicking from hand and from the tee let him down, but he led the line well and invariably picked out the right runners in the midfield
Ben Youngs – 8 – His service has improved markedly, his passing was lightning quick, his kicking was intelligent and he made a couple of telling breaks to keep the defence on its toes.
Logovi’i Munipola – 7 – Got out muscled in a couple of early scrums but then held his own and contributed a huge amount in the loose, charging around with typical vigour.
Tom Youngs – 7 – Another impressive display by the Premiership Player of the Season and new Lion.  A couple of squiffy throws were quickly forgotten as he carried with real purpose – twice making scything breaks.
Dan Cole – 8 – Once Mulipola started holding his own, he gave Marler a torrid time in the scrum.  Massive defensive effort as well, getting through a huge amount of tackles but showed some lovely hands with some deft offloads too.
Graham Kitchener – 6 – Fairly quiet for the second row, but a big contribution to a dominant second half when the Tigers started to dominate the collisions.
Geoff Parling – 7 – Didn’t get stuck into the Quins’ lineout perhaps as much as he would have liked but still surprisingly effective with his hands on the ball.
Tom Croft – 9 – Try saving tackle?  Check.  Ridiculously good try? Check.  Phenomenal work rate in the loose and physics-defying speed contributed to a superb performance.  Man of the Match.
Julian Salvi – 7 – Not headline stealing, but a constant thorn in Quins’ side and made several telling interventions in the first half to prevent the visitors from crossing the line.
Jordan Crane – 8 – His performance levels are finally back to pre-injury standards, showing great power on the carry and a wonderfully subtle offloading skill to maintain momentum.

Subs

Rob Hawkins – 6 – Hurled himself into the fray with customary enthusiasm, taking contact at full tilt on a number of occasions – the way it should be done.

Fraser Balmain – Not enough time to make an impact
Martin Castrogiovanni – 6 – Just typical Castro when he came on, carrying well and smashing people in contact – on one occasion illegally and giving away a penalty.  The sight of the big guy in tears in his last home appearance for his beloved Tigers was a sign of his passion for the club.
Steve Mafi – Not enough time to make an impact
Thomas Waldrom – Not enough time to make an impact
Sam Harrison – Not enough time to make an impact
George Ford – Not enough time to make an impact
Matt Smith – Not enough time to make an impact

Harlequins Player Ratings

Mike Brown – 6 – Magnificent under the high ball but also far too many aimless kicks, handing possession back to the Tigers.  Didn’t see too much of his running ability, either, especially after the break.

Tom Williams – 5 – Missed tackles on Goneva and Tait were costly, with one leading to a try and one leading to a yellow card.  Made up for it with a nice break and sublime offload for Quins’ try – but it was too late.
George Lowe – 5 – Tackled well but was effectively invisible in attack.  On one occasion he did get close to the line but was superbly shackled by Tait.
Tom Casson – 5 – Worked hard and tackled well and certainly held his own, proving me wrong in the process.  But, like his centre partner, just simply did not see the ball to make an impact in attack.
Ugo Monye – 5 – Another to suffer from a lack of decent ball in space.  Worked his socks off as usual but didn’t find any joy at Welford Road on Saturday.
Nick Evans – 6 – Such a lovely passer of the ball, and he kicked well throughout.  Was just starved of possession in the second half.
Danny Care – 7 – Was having a real ding-dong battle with Youngs before he was harshly yellowed, never to reappear.  Made a couple of clever breaks and passed well, and was a whisker away from scoring a very sharp try.
Joe Marler – 5 – Struggled in the scrum as the game went on and gave away a silly penalty in front of the sticks, but his work rate remains excellent and he never stopped battling.
Joe Gray – 5 – Next to no effect in the loose, unfortunately, but he was reliable at the set piece and his jumpers with regularity.
James Johnston – 6 – Had the nudge on Mulipola early on and was keen to get his hands on the ball as much as possible in the opening stages.
Ollie Kohn – 6 – A real grafter, getting stuck into the physical stuff at ruck time where he was a big reason why Quins had the edge in the first 30.  Fell away, like the rest of the pack, in the second half though.
George Robson – 8 – Quins’ best player.  Superb in the lineout, making a mess of a couple of Tigers throws, and also effective around the park with his mixture of power and mobility.
Maurie Fa’asavalu – 7 – Very physical in the first half before fading and being replaced in the second - got through a lot of work and tackled himself to a standstill.
Luke Wallace – 7 – Had a great battle with Salvi in the loose and arguably just shaded it with his carrying and work rate in defence.  A couple of sharp turnovers were impressive but a brainless chip through in a promising position showed he still has some growing up to do.
Nick Easter – 5 – Utterly anonymous for the first 65 minutes, when he finally started making some significant carries and subtle offloads to get the visitors onto the front foot.  It was too late by then, though.

Subs

Rob Buchanan – 5 – Usually such a noticeable contributor with the ball in hand but we didn’t see much of that yesterday.

Will Collier – Not enough time to make an impact
Mark Lambert – 5 – The big man was unable to help stem the irresistible surge of the Leicester machine when he arrived on the scene.
Charlie Matthews – 6 – Got stuck in straight away and made a couple of decent charges towards the end of the game as well.
Tom Guest – 5 – Got no opportunities to show off his pace and instead was consigned to watching first Croft and then Tait gallop in for tries.
Karl Dickson – 5 – Horrible time to come on as a 9.  Pack in full retreat and the opposition rampant – he was never going to have a chance to showcase his skills.
Ben Botica – 4 – Difficult cameo for the Kiwi.  He’s had an outstanding season but some noticeable missed tackles, in particular on Tuilagi, highlighted how perhaps he isn’t all that comfortable in the centre position.
Ross Chisolm – 6 – Got the ball twice.  First time, he was smashed by Goneva, then he ran a great support line to run in a very well taken try.  A positive personal return to the ground on which he suffered a nasty knee injury.

Aviva Premiership Semi Final Preview - Saracens v Northampton Saints

 

What are the grounds to classify a home ground as a fortress?  Is it when you’ve been unbeaten for 5 years, like Clermont Auvergne; or just because it’s old and has a tradition of being a tricky place to win, like Welford Road?  I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s a combination of being hard to beat and having something different, like a terrace or a ‘Shed’.  And if one side does different, it’s Saracens, and that’s what’s making me think that their new(ish) home, Allianz Park, may just be creeping into fortress territory.  It’s the cheerleaders, the terrible music, the plastic pitch and magnificent 100metre long bar – plus the fact that Sarries have looked damned good there – that make it  such an unusual setting for visiting teams to come to.  But this weekend, their visitors, Northampton, won’t have time to be overawed by their new surroundings – with a pack as big as an East Midlands’ hamlet and in a bad mood after last week’s loss, this grumpy group of forwards will have no qualms about charging in, ruining the party and smashing the fortress to smithereens.  The hosts must be on their guard.

Saracens, at home, have looked a different side to the one we frequently see banded around the newspapers.  Ambitious, fast-paced and clinical, there have even been whisperings that they’re pretty good to watch – is it all down to their new pitch, or is it just the pride at finally having place they can call their own.  Perhaps it is a bit of both but, call me romantic, I’d like to think it’s the latter.  Even the most steadfast Sarries fan with a couple of decades worth of fezzes would have trouble claiming that their side has been easy on the eye over the last couple of years – despite being effective, they’ve relied mainly on a superb kick-chase and pressure defence which pins teams back and forces them into defence.  But what has never been in doubt is the quality and potential they possess out wide – guys like Alex Goode, Chris Ashton and David Strettle are all superb runners and they’ve been dying to get some quick ball in space.  Now, at Allianz Park, they’ve finally got their wish, and boy do they look good.  They’ll need more of that high tempo stuff if they are to dismantle the Saints in the same way the Tigers did last month – and their new home is the perfect place to implement that game plan.

So what of it for Saints?  Resounding underdogs heading to a newly built fortress – it doesn’t sound promising.  But this Northampton side should never be underestimated.  With class players like Dylan Hartley, Christian Day and Ben Foden in their ranks, this lot will never take a backwards step – and when you have the likes of Courtney Lawes and the superbly named Samu Manoa lurking around, you can be sure that a few cages (of the rib variety) will get rattled.  Their pack has received most of the plaudits and rightly so – their bonus point win at Wasps earlier in the season was a lesson in how to utilise the rolling maul, and if they are to threaten Saracens they need to dent the hosts confidence by steamrolling them early on and applying the pressure.  If Sarries get on top in the physical battles though, it could be a long afternoon for the Saints.

Allianz Park might not be classified as a fortress just yet, but the walls are being raised ever higher.  The Saints may have the big tools needed to pull off a destruction job, but I get the feeling that Sarries aren’t quite ready for a demolition just yet.  Make sure your hard hats are on, because this one may get explosive...

 

Saracens Team News

Saracens have openside flanker Will Fraser back for the first time in three weeks after a shoulder injury.   The Premiership's top team bring in full-back Alex Goode in their only other change to the XV that beat Bath.

Starting Line up: Goode; Ashton, Tomkins, Farrell, Strettle; Hodgson, De Kock; Vunipola, Brits, Stevens; Borthwick (C), Hargreaves; Brown, Fraser, Wray.

Subs:  Smit. Gill, Nieto, Botha, Kruis, Wigglesworth, Taylor, Wyles.

Key Player

Will Fraser.  In my opinion this guy was exceptionally unlucky not to pick up a gong at the recent Premiership Awards – put simply, he’s been outstanding.  Lightening fast around the pitch, making big tackles and snaffling good turnover ball, he’s proven himself as a real talent and he may well get a chance to represent his country this year whilst Robshaw is rested.  Sarries haven’t quite been as sharp as usual of late and a lot of that is down to the fact that they lost a lot of fluency with Fraser out injured – but now he’s returned, Saracens will look to the young flanker to be the first to breakdown to secure ball quickly and allow the bigger runners the chance to run at a retreating defence.  Of course, as it’s his first match back, this all depends on him being 100% match fit...

 

Northampton Team News

Centre George Pisi has suffered a recurrence of his hamstring problem, so James Wilson comes in; otherwise director of rugby Jim Mallinder will stick with the same side that lost to Harlequins last week.

Starting Line up: Foden; K Pisi, Wilson, Burrell, Elliott; Myler, Dickson; Tonga'uiha, Hartley (C), Mujati; Lawes, Day; Clark, Wood, Manoa.

Subs: Haywood, Waller, Mercey, Dowson, Van Velze, Roberts, Lamb, May.

Key Player

Dylan Hartley.  The England hooker has been honoured with a Lions call up that has surprised a fair few, but there is little doubt over the Saints’ captain’s quality.  Aggressive in the loose, solid in the set piece and strong on the carry, he exemplifies the best qualities of this Northampton side – but he will have his work cut out on Sunday.  Saracens will be targeting the lineout as a potential area of weakness in the knowledge that Hartley is prone to the odd off-day, and in Steve Borthwick they have not only one of the most boring men in the world but also one of the best stealers of lineout ball in the business.  If the visitors want to get their fabled rolling maul...well...rolling, Hartley will have to make sure he’s deadly accurate with his throws and vary it up enough to keep Borthwick out of the game.

 

Key Battle

Joel Tomkins v Luther Burrell.  The Saracens’ league-convert had a tricky start to the year as he settled into his new role, but since then he’s shown himself to be a quietly effective and bruisingly physical specimen of an outside centre.  An expert at drawing in defenders, breaking the gainline and offloading out of the tackle, Burrell & co will have to make sure he’s up fast to stop the big man from picking up momentum.  That’s not to say that the Saint’s own convert from the 13-a-side game isn’t capable of causing some damage himself – like Tomkins, Burrell is a bruising figure with deceptive pace capable of barrelling his way over the gainline.  He’s underrated by many but I can’t see why Saints haven’t used him more – he’s impressed in most of his outings and he seems tailor made for that 12 shirt.  In a game likely to be dominated by the power-packed battle up front, it may well come down to which one of these big men in the middle is able to get their side on the front foot and generate momentum.

Prediction

The Saints have an almighty pack that’s capable of crushing sides to pieces in the tight, but they’ve struggled against sides who can match their physicality and I don’t see that changing against Sarries.  The men in black have one of the most brutal eight in the business (after all, half of them are South African) and on their plastic pitch they’ve looked simply unstoppable.  I reckon Northampton will give a decent go of it but will fall away in the second half.  Sarries by 9.
 

Aviva Premiership Semi-Final Review - Leicester Tigers v Harlequins

Repetition isn't always boring.  There are, of course, many instances where it is – New Zealand winning the Tri Nations (or Rugby Championship as it's now known), another scandal involving a bank, and Danny Care maintaining a terrible haircut.  However, try telling that to those Leicester fans who see their team in the knock-out stages once again for the umpteenth time, and indeed to those following Quins, who see their burgeoning, talented side in the playoffs for the second year in a row, having developed a taste for success after last year.  This is of course a rematch of last year's final, where the London side rolled across the road to Twickenham and, despite being underdogs, outplayed their illustrious opponents to earn themselves a thoroughly well-deserved win.  So this one should have a nice undercurrent of spice to it – with both sides trying to prove they are the dominant force in England – and not least because of the recent furore surrounding the Lions.  Leicester, last year's runners up in England, have been honoured with no less than six Lions call ups, whilst the reigning champions have none.  Not even the electric Danny Care, the powerful Mike Brown or the inspirational Chris Robshaw.  You can almost hear the indignation at the injustice of it all bubbling over from West London, and they will be desperate to prove a couple of points on Leicester's home turf.  And what will the Tigers think? Probably not a lot – after all, somebody coming to Welford Road with a serious vendetta against the East Midlanders is hardly a new scenario.

It's the usual story with Leicester – another semi-final (their 8th on the trot, and their 5th home semi on the bounce) with the prospect of a staggering 9th consecutive Premiership final on the bounce.  But if you thought that the hunger for success would have diminished, you'd be dead wrong.  Not only is this Leicester's last shot at silverware this season (which, at a club who adopt the Blofelt "This organisation does not tolerate failure" mentality, is a big deal), but the Tigers are also saying goodbye to two 'local' legends in Geordan Murphy and Martin Castrogiovanni.   You couldn't find two more different players – one a balding full back with better footwork than Michael Flatley, the other a hairy, marauding prop who is a suspected missing link from cave-dwelling times.  But both these guys have a charisma and passion for Leicester that has endeared them to the Welford Road faithful, and the rest of the team will be desperate to give them a winning send off at home and one last Twickenham appearance.  They'll need to up their game though – after an impressive run of form in the Premiership, they've become a bit too relaxed of late with their semi-final spot all but secured.  Loose play led to a loss against Bath and inaccuracy against London Irish, but you can bet that Richard Cockerill won't let that happen again.  Leicester will have to ensure they bring out their 'A' game against the defending champions – and that means getting their power runners hitting lines 2 passes away from the breakdown, recycling with lightning, and attacking a back-peddling defence.  If they play to their potential, Murphy and Castro may just get the dream send-off they deserve.

For Harlequins, the dream has had a couple of rude awakenings of late.  Following on from their sensational victory over the Tigers' in last season's final, the Premiership champions started the year in insuppressible style – with the likes of Mike Brown, Danny Care and Chris Robshaw all maintaining their international form and scoring tries seemingly at will.  But they have had to come down to earth with a bit of a bump – despite leading the league up until Christmas, the west London side have only won 5 of their 9 games of 2013, an average run which included 3 consecutive losses and disappointing home defeats to Wasps and Exeter.  But this isn't the woolly, la-dee-da Harlequins outfit of old – this side has backbone and tenacity, and has bounced back with 3 impressive wins which allow them to travel to Welford road with a realistic degree of confidence.  They'll be looking to Nick Evans to target Matt Tait and Nikki Goneva, especially, with high balls because they're not the most reliable duo covering back, although Tait improves with every outing. If Quins are at their best – playing at a high tempo and with a lot of width – then they are a very difficult side to hold down; plus they know they can beat Leicester, having won in their last 3 encounters (including twice at Welford Road).

Of course, once the players get onto that pitch, past form will count for nothing and we'll hopefully be treated to a fast and skilful display of attacking rugby. For one set of fans, who'll see their team marching onto the final for the second year running, that'll make for a very enjoyable sense of deja vous indeed.

 

Leicester Team News

Leicester include Mathew Tait and Dan Cole in their starting line-up for Saturday's Premiership semi-final.  Both were replacements for Saturday's bonus-point win over London Irish but return to a side skippered by fellow England international Toby Flood.

Starting Line up: Tait; Morris, Tuilagi, Allen, Vereniki, Goneva, Flood (c), Ben Youngs; Mulipola, Tom Youngs, Cole; Kitchener, Parling; Croft, Salvi, Crane.

Subs: Hawkins, Balmain, Castrogiovanni, Mafi, Waldrom, Harrison, Ford, Smith.

Key Player

Manu Tuilagi.  The Samoan-born wrecking ball has been a little quiet of late since his barnstorming display against Northampton, but you only need to look at his performance in that game to know what he's capable of when he gets into a match.  He's facing up to two smaller centres in George Lowe and Tom Casson – with both men roughly the same size as Tuilagi's thigh – but Lowe is quick and strong in the tackle.  There is a channel for the Lions tourist to exploit though, and that's between Casson and Nick Evans.  Casson is, in my opinion, a colossally average player and Nick Evans, despite being a world class fly half, isn't the greatest defender – if Tuilagi makes sure he gets his hands on the ball and hits that short line between 10 and 12, the Leicester machine will gather a hell of a lot of momentum.  And that's a pretty hard machine to stop once it gets going.

 

Harlequins Team News

Harlequins are without injured England captain Chris Robshaw (ankle) so Luke Wallace continues at open-side flanker with Maurie Fa'asavalu at blindside.   Joe Gray is the hooker with Joe Marler and James Johnston packing down at prop.

Starting Line up: Brown; Williams, Lowe, Casson, Monye; Evans, Care; Marler, Gray, Johnston; Kohn Robson; Fa'asavalu, Wallace, Easter (C).

Subs: Buchanan, Lambert, Collier, Matthews, Guest, Dickson, Botica, Chisholm.

Key Player

Luke Wallace.  With the superb Chris Robshaw still battling his way back from a troublesome ankle injury, all eyes turn on to the majestically-conditioned mane of the young Harlequins' openside.  His hair may be girly, but his physicality is anything but – tenacious over the ball and fast across the park, his contest with Salvi to slow down or steal attacking ball from the opposition will be critical to the game.  He doesn't have Robshaw's carrying and offloading ability, but if he can make sure that he's first one in to the breakdown, that won't matter – Leicester's game is based on momentum, and this guy has the tools to stop it.

 

Key Battle

Ben Youngs v Danny Care.  Eeesh, this is a tight one.  Care must hate the sight of Youngs more than Augustus Gloop hates the sight of a 3 leaf salad.  Not only is Youngs England's starting 9, ahead of him by a whisker, but he's now a Lions tourist, whilst Care has been left out.  I personally think they should have both gone, but that won't matter to Care – he has a score to settle.  The Harlequins man is probably more of an individual threat than Youngs, in that he scoots through gaps himself more often, but the Leicester 9's ability to bring in runners off his shoulder is absolutely pivotal to how the Tigers play.  Care will need to tune down his emotion and frustration to avoid this becoming a personal vendetta that pushes him into making selfish decisions, whilst Youngs will need to ensure his service, which has been very sharp of late, remains reliable under the pressure that Quins will surely apply on him.  Both men are key components in how their team attack – if one has an off day, it may just go a huge way towards deciding the outcome of this tie.

Prediction

This one is going to be an almighty battle that should throw up some decent rugby as well, and I can see it going right down to the wire.  Quins may well have had the nudge on the Tigers in their last 3 encounters but, with a full strength side at Welford Road, this may be where the title defence ends for the reigning champions.  Tigers by 5.
 

Super XV Big Match Preview - Waratahs v Stormers

"Season-defining moment" is a phrase you hear a fair bit over the course of the year.  Often it's used simply as an over-dramatisation by a local paper who are trying to glorify the mundane achievements of its local mid-table amateur football side, but once in a while it does actually hold some relevance – and this is one of those occasions.  Both sides are sitting in mid-table but still within reach of a wild card spot – but both side's desperately need a win to make that ambition for the season realistic.

The hosts have been a revelation this year.  After years of empty promises and eye-bleedingly boring rugby, the Waratahs seem to have finally found their calling under Michael Cheika and are playing exciting, ambitious rugby that has seen them run in some dazzling tries.  With stellar performances from guys like Kane Robertson, Michael Hooper, Bernard Foley and Israel Folau – as well as contributions from established Wallabies such as Drew Mitchell and Adam Ashley Cooper – it's easy to see why, when this Tahs side click, they're dynamite.  They're still fighting for consistency and have been known to play a little bit too fast and loose at times – often to their detriment – but after their 72 – 10 drubbing of the Kings last week the NSW outfit will be full of confidence…and that makes them a dangerous animal to play against.

For their opponents, the Stormers, it's been a slightly different story but with the same result – an effective and talented side looking for consistency.  A heavyweight of Super Rugby over recent years, they've been plagued by ill-discipline and occasionally a lack of inventiveness in attack – although their defence has been exemplary, conceding only 11 tries all season.  That's the amount that Waratahs managed in 1 game last week.  Not only do they hold a brutally physical pack, where the likes of Siya Kolisi and Duane Vermeulen have been running riot, but their backline doesn't lack for punch either, with Jean de Villiers and Juan du Jongh not exactly known for fluffy dispositions on the field.  They'll go into this one knowing that they haven't been beaten by the Waratahs since 2009 – but that was the last time they played in Sydney.

When winning is everything, as it will be on Saturday, quality can sometimes suffer.  But with the star quality these two sides possess, it's hard to see that happening, although we do know one thing for sure – if these guys are to push for end of season honours, they need to win now.  It may just define their season.

 

Waratahs Team News

Waratahs coach Michael Chieka has named an unchanged team to face the Stormers at Allianz Stadium.  The only changes come on the bench, where Wallabies Drew Mitchell and Berrick Barnes return (with Ben Volavola very unlucky to get the chop) and Will Skelton is set to make his debut.  He stands at 6 foot 8 and weighs 135kgs by the way. 

Starting Line up:  Israel Folau, Cam Crawford, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Rob Horne, Peter Betham, Bernard Foley, Brendan McKibbin, Wycliff Palu, Michael Hooper, Dave Dennis, Kane Douglas, Sitaleki Timani, Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson.

Subs: John Ulugia, Paddy Ryan, Will Skelton, Mitchell Chapman, Pat McCutcheon, Matt Lucas, Berrick Barnes, Drew Mitchell

Key Player

Bernard Foley.  I am a huge fan of this guy – especially the fact that he has a criminally under-used first name from the 1930s – and I'd go as far as saying he's been my pick of the fly halves so far this season; certainly the surprise package.  He's shown great vision, an eye for a gap, sharp acceleration and the sort of inventiveness that this talented Waratahs backline has thrived off – behind most of the good stuff that the Tahs have produced this year, Foley's been behind it pulling the strings, and that's all the more impressive considering that he's playing outside a pretty average half back (in my opinion) in Brendan McKibbin.  If "Saint" Bernard (sorry) gets decent front foot ball, and McKibbin doesn't throw too many howlers, then this guy has the tools to prise this stubborn Stormers defence wide open.

Stormers Team News

Springbok lock Eben Etzebeth has been named to make his first Super Rugby start of the season following his return from an ankle injury which he sustained during pre-season action.   In other changes to the matchday 22 flank/lock Don Armand joins the bench - along with winger Gerhard van den Heever, who flew over to Sydney as an injury replacement earlier this week.  Centre/wing Damian de Allende drops out of the squad altogether

Starting Line up: Joe Pietersen, Gio Aplon, Juan de Jongh, Jean de Villiers (capt), Bryan Habana, Gary Van Aswegen, Dewaldt Duvenage, Duane Vermeulen, Rynhardt Elstadt, Siya Kolisi, Andries Bekker, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Deon Fourie, Steven Kitshoff.

Subs: Siyabonga Ntubeni, Pat Cilliers, Don Armand, Nizaam Carr, Louis Schreuder, Elton Jantjies, Gerhard van den Heever

Key Player

Siya Kolisi.  Yes, that kid bully Etzebeth is back starting for the first time this season, but the bloke I'm really looking forward to seeing is Siya Kolisi.  The big flanker is intimidating enough when he's in a good mood, so I dread to think what he'll be like following his side's narrow loss to the Blues last week.  Relentlessly physical and mobile around the park, the Stormers will be looking to him to make a mess of the home side's breakdown and smash their runners on the gainline, making Foley to play under pressure and forcing mistakes.

 

Key Battle

Kane Douglas v Andries Bekker.  In a tight game where the Waratahs might expect to have the slightest of edges in open play, it's essential that they can at least hold their own in the set piece – in particular, the lineout.  In Bekker, the Stormers have one of the best in the business when it comes to securing his team's ball and pilfering the opposition's with his frankly ludicrously long limbs. Douglas will have to out-think and out-jump the South African giant, otherwise his side will lose the luxury of kicking for touch from penalties and be forced to play a lot more rugby under pressure and from deep.

Prediction

The Tahs' season has mirrored the development of Israel Folau – shaky and indecisive at first, with odd flashes of brilliance, to consistently threatening sides with intelligent running, speed and inventiveness.  The Stormers have just come off a decent tour of New Zealand where they beat the Hurricanes and came within a whisker of beating the Blues, but the hosts will be full of confidence following their stunning victory last week and their speed of attack should ensure Cheika's men come through with a win.  Waratahs by 6.

 

What else is happening across the Super Rugby world this weekend?

Chiefs v Force:  The Force will be chuffed after frustrating the Reds once again but playing the Chiefs away is an altogether different prospect.  The hosts will be keen not to let in as many soft points as they did against the Rebels but their attacking prowess should be touch much for the visitors from WA.  Chiefs by 18.

Reds v Sharks:  After another lacklustre performance against the Force, the Reds will be keen to put things right on their return to Suncorp.  That doesn't bode well for the Sharks, who are on a rotten run of form at the moment and in the midst of an injury crisis – and I don't see my pre-tournament favourites doing my punditry any favours this weekend.  Reds by 9.

Cheetahs v Hurricanes.  This year's surprise package, the Cheetahs, have impressed all season with their physicality up front and enterprise out wide – it's almost been total rugby at times.  The Canes have yet to string together a decent run of wins and against their less illustrious yet in form opponents I can't see them improving their position.  Cheetahs by 6.

Blues v Rebels:  Well, Kurtley's been naughty again so the Rebels will be without one of their chief attacking weapons.  Despite the fact that the Melbourne outfit have been playing some decent stuff of late it's hard to see them coming good against a winning, bruising Blues side who will be stung at their inability to kill last week's game off.  Blues by 12.

Kings v Highlanders:  Nearly my game of the week as it's a key battle to avoid the wooden spoon.  With new found confidence and a first win, it's absolutely critical for the Highlanders that they follow it up with another victory – especially against fellow strugglers, the Kings.  The South African side will still be reeling from conceding 72 points in their last home outing and I don't think they can pick themselves up in time for this one.  Highlanders by 10.