Thursday, 9 May 2013

Super XV Big Match Preview - Waratahs v Stormers



"Season-defining moment" is a phrase you hear a fair bit over the course of the year.  Often it's used simply as an over-dramatisation by a local paper who are trying to glorify the mundane achievements of its local mid-table amateur football side, but once in a while it does actually hold some relevance – and this is one of those occasions.  Both sides are sitting in mid-table but still within reach of a wild card spot – but both side's desperately need a win to make that ambition for the season realistic.

The hosts have been a revelation this year.  After years of empty promises and eye-bleedingly boring rugby, the Waratahs seem to have finally found their calling under Michael Cheika and are playing exciting, ambitious rugby that has seen them run in some dazzling tries.  With stellar performances from guys like Kane Robertson, Michael Hooper, Bernard Foley and Israel Folau – as well as contributions from established Wallabies such as Drew Mitchell and Adam Ashley Cooper – it's easy to see why, when this Tahs side click, they're dynamite.  They're still fighting for consistency and have been known to play a little bit too fast and loose at times – often to their detriment – but after their 72 – 10 drubbing of the Kings last week the NSW outfit will be full of confidence…and that makes them a dangerous animal to play against.

For their opponents, the Stormers, it's been a slightly different story but with the same result – an effective and talented side looking for consistency.  A heavyweight of Super Rugby over recent years, they've been plagued by ill-discipline and occasionally a lack of inventiveness in attack – although their defence has been exemplary, conceding only 11 tries all season.  That's the amount that Waratahs managed in 1 game last week.  Not only do they hold a brutally physical pack, where the likes of Siya Kolisi and Duane Vermeulen have been running riot, but their backline doesn't lack for punch either, with Jean de Villiers and Juan du Jongh not exactly known for fluffy dispositions on the field.  They'll go into this one knowing that they haven't been beaten by the Waratahs since 2009 – but that was the last time they played in Sydney.

When winning is everything, as it will be on Saturday, quality can sometimes suffer.  But with the star quality these two sides possess, it's hard to see that happening, although we do know one thing for sure – if these guys are to push for end of season honours, they need to win now.  It may just define their season.

 
Waratahs Team News

Waratahs coach Michael Chieka has named an unchanged team to face the Stormers at Allianz Stadium.  The only changes come on the bench, where Wallabies Drew Mitchell and Berrick Barnes return (with Ben Volavola very unlucky to get the chop) and Will Skelton is set to make his debut.  He stands at 6 foot 8 and weighs 135kgs by the way. 

Starting Line up:  Israel Folau, Cam Crawford, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Rob Horne, Peter Betham, Bernard Foley, Brendan McKibbin, Wycliff Palu, Michael Hooper, Dave Dennis, Kane Douglas, Sitaleki Timani, Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson.
Subs: John Ulugia, Paddy Ryan, Will Skelton, Mitchell Chapman, Pat McCutcheon, Matt Lucas, Berrick Barnes, Drew Mitchell

Key Player

Bernard Foley.  I am a huge fan of this guy – especially the fact that he has a criminally under-used first name from the 1930s – and I'd go as far as saying he's been my pick of the fly halves so far this season; certainly the surprise package.  He's shown great vision, an eye for a gap, sharp acceleration and the sort of inventiveness that this talented Waratahs backline has thrived off – behind most of the good stuff that the Tahs have produced this year, Foley's been behind it pulling the strings, and that's all the more impressive considering that he's playing outside a pretty average half back (in my opinion) in Brendan McKibbin.  If "Saint" Bernard (sorry) gets decent front foot ball, and McKibbin doesn't throw too many howlers, then this guy has the tools to prise this stubborn Stormers defence wide open.

Stormers Team News

Springbok lock Eben Etzebeth has been named to make his first Super Rugby start of the season following his return from an ankle injury which he sustained during pre-season action.   In other changes to the matchday 22 flank/lock Don Armand joins the bench - along with winger Gerhard van den Heever, who flew over to Sydney as an injury replacement earlier this week.  Centre/wing Damian de Allende drops out of the squad altogether

Starting Line up: Joe Pietersen, Gio Aplon, Juan de Jongh, Jean de Villiers (capt), Bryan Habana, Gary Van Aswegen, Dewaldt Duvenage, Duane Vermeulen, Rynhardt Elstadt, Siya Kolisi, Andries Bekker, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Deon Fourie, Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: Siyabonga Ntubeni, Pat Cilliers, Don Armand, Nizaam Carr, Louis Schreuder, Elton Jantjies, Gerhard van den Heever

Key Player

Siya Kolisi.  Yes, that kid bully Etzebeth is back starting for the first time this season, but the bloke I'm really looking forward to seeing is Siya Kolisi.  The big flanker is intimidating enough when he's in a good mood, so I dread to think what he'll be like following his side's narrow loss to the Blues last week.  Relentlessly physical and mobile around the park, the Stormers will be looking to him to make a mess of the home side's breakdown and smash their runners on the gainline, making Foley to play under pressure and forcing mistakes.

 
Key Battle

Kane Douglas v Andries Bekker.  In a tight game where the Waratahs might expect to have the slightest of edges in open play, it's essential that they can at least hold their own in the set piece – in particular, the lineout.  In Bekker, the Stormers have one of the best in the business when it comes to securing his team's ball and pilfering the opposition's with his frankly ludicrously long limbs. Douglas will have to out-think and out-jump the South African giant, otherwise his side will lose the luxury of kicking for touch from penalties and be forced to play a lot more rugby under pressure and from deep.

Prediction

The Tahs' season has mirrored the development of Israel Folau – shaky and indecisive at first, with odd flashes of brilliance, to consistently threatening sides with intelligent running, speed and inventiveness.  The Stormers have just come off a decent tour of New Zealand where they beat the Hurricanes and came within a whisker of beating the Blues, but the hosts will be full of confidence following their stunning victory last week and their speed of attack should ensure Cheika's men come through with a win.  Waratahs by 6.

 
What else is happening across the Super Rugby world this weekend?

Chiefs v Force:  The Force will be chuffed after frustrating the Reds once again but playing the Chiefs away is an altogether different prospect.  The hosts will be keen not to let in as many soft points as they did against the Rebels but their attacking prowess should be touch much for the visitors from WA.  Chiefs by 18.

Reds v Sharks:  After another lacklustre performance against the Force, the Reds will be keen to put things right on their return to Suncorp.  That doesn't bode well for the Sharks, who are on a rotten run of form at the moment and in the midst of an injury crisis – and I don't see my pre-tournament favourites doing my punditry any favours this weekend.  Reds by 9.

Cheetahs v Hurricanes.  This year's surprise package, the Cheetahs, have impressed all season with their physicality up front and enterprise out wide – it's almost been total rugby at times.  The Canes have yet to string together a decent run of wins and against their less illustrious yet in form opponents I can't see them improving their position.  Cheetahs by 6.

Blues v Rebels:  Well, Kurtley's been naughty again so the Rebels will be without one of their chief attacking weapons.  Despite the fact that the Melbourne outfit have been playing some decent stuff of late it's hard to see them coming good against a winning, bruising Blues side who will be stung at their inability to kill last week's game off.  Blues by 12.

Kings v Highlanders:  Nearly my game of the week as it's a key battle to avoid the wooden spoon.  With new found confidence and a first win, it's absolutely critical for the Highlanders that they follow it up with another victory – especially against fellow strugglers, the Kings.  The South African side will still be reeling from conceding 72 points in their last home outing and I don't think they can pick themselves up in time for this one.  Highlanders by 10.

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