Monday, 17 June 2013

Preview - ACT Brumbies v British & Irish Lions



One of the reasons we love sport is because you can never be 100% sure what’s going to happen; it’s the shock factor.  The only thing is that, in the vast majority of situations, the ‘unexpected’ outcome is at least on the cards before the event starts.  Take Wigan beating Manchester City in the FA Cup final as an example – nobody gave them a fart in the wind’s chance of emerging victorious, but instead they turned over the reigning Premiership champions to cause one of the greatest upsets in FA Cup Final history.  But it was still a possibility – at least a remote one – before the game that Wigan would turn up trumps; that outcome was at least on the table.  And that’s why, in my view, the call of Shane Williams to the Lions squad is one of the biggest shocks in professional sport I can recall.

Upon waking up and reading the news on the internet, my first reaction was to double check that I had not dreamt the last 2 months and that it wasn’t April the 1st.  Who honestly had Shane Williams down as having even the remotest possibility of pulling on a Lions shirt this year?  There are guys who have played regular international rugby who you’d expect to see on the waiting list – players like Tim Visser, Craig Gilroy or even Chris Ashton (although he may admittedly have been waiting a long time).  Even guys who you don’t see on the international circuit who have been tearing it up at club level in Britain and Ireland would have been deemed as potential ‘bolters’ – think of Christian Wade, Tom Varndell or Eli Walker.  These guys may have all created varying degrees of shock if they were selected, but at least their names were on the table to some degree.  So if you confidently predicted that a 36 year old who is 2 years retired from the international game and currently making a living playing 2nd Division rugby in Japan was going to get a call up, I demand that you provide me with your picks for next weekend’s lottery numbers.

But there is something gloriously romantic in Shane’s call up that is a classic throwback to the amateur era of touring – where, if the coaches were in a tight spot, they’d check to see who was on holiday nearby and if they could squeeze into the spare set of size 10s they had available.  I’d love to have been a fly on the wall when the idea of calling up Shane Williams was first mooted:

Gats:  “Cr*p, we’re running out of wingers.  Is there anyone half-decent nearby who can get here in under 12 hours?”
Howley: “I think Shane Williams is about to pop over on a commentary gig, and I know for a fact that he takes his Lions stash and boots everywhere with him.”
Gats:  “Shane Williams?  Behave.  Who knows what kind of shape he’s in, the amount of sushi they have over there.  Surely there’s somebody else.”
Howley:  “Well, Gerald Davies says he’s more than happy to put his shorts on again.”
Gats:  “Call Shane.  Now.”

Of course, Williams is a consummate professional, and I have no doubt he will give a strong account of himself.  But this isn’t like playing the Combined Country XV – he will be up against Henry Speight, try-scorer extraordinaire for the premier team in Australian rugby currently.  The Brumbies may be missing some of their key players to Wallaby call ups, but this side is not about the star players – they are a tight knit squad whose teamwork and effectiveness outweighs the sum of their parts.  This young side has once again surprised pundits and fans by proving themselves more than capable of dealing with pressure and turning over big teams like the Reds and the Blues with style and panache.  Their strength in depth is yet to be fully tested, however, and it will be interesting to see how they deal without key cogs such as centre Christian Lealiifano, number 8 Ben Mowen, scrum half Nic White and winger Joe Tomane, who are all either with the Wallabies or injured.  But you can bet that their style of play will not change – which means fast attacks around the fringes before flinging it wide with frightening speed.  It’s a tactic that has ripped many a side apart this year, with the likes of Speight, Jesse Mogg and Tomane all experts at finishing off half-chances.

That’s not to say that the Lions aren’t capable of exploiting some gaps themselves.  Williams may have hogged the headlines, but I’m genuinely excited to see what Christian Wade can do in a Lions shirt, and together the duo make a pocket-rocket pair who can scoot through the smallest of openings if the Brumbies are foolish enough to allow them space.  Of course, with Gatland’s game plan about power off the wings and in the centres, and with the talented playmaker Twelvetrees also getting a call up, it will be interesting to see what game plan this Lions side adapt since the Kiwi’s standard bish-bash-bosh approach clearly won’t fit.  That said, the pack at least looks very mobile and powerful and far less of a random concoction than the backline, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Lions’ gameplan – especially with Stuart Hogg playing 10 for only the second time – is to keep the ball tight and try to grind their less experienced opponents down.  If they can manage that, then they have a good chance of keeping their 100% record going.

But let’s get one thing clear – the biggest shock has occurred before the game has even started, and the Lions will be well aware that an ‘upset’ – a home victory – is very definitely on the table.

 
Brumbies Team News

Wallabies squad members Peter Kimlin and Scott Sio will lift an under-strength Brumbies line-up for the tour match against the British and Irish Lions.  The duo were given permission to leave the Wallabies' training camp, ahead of the first Test in Brisbane next week.  Utility forward Kimlin will skipper the Australian Super Rugby conference leaders, who will be without six other Wallabies squad members.  Ben Alexander, Ben Mowen, Stephen Moore, Pat McCabe, and Christian Lealiifano remain in the national side's camp, while Joe Tomane (toe) is injured.  The Brumbies will also miss their regular half-back Nic White, who is sidelined with a shoulder injury.

Starting Line up:  Jesse Mogg, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Andrew Smith, Clyde Rathbone; Matt Toomua, Ian Prior; Ruan Smith Siliva Siliva, Scott Sio; Leon Power, Sam Carter; Scott Fardy, Colby Faingaa, Peter Kimlin (c).
Subs: Josh Mann-Rea, Jean-Pierre Smith, Chris Cocca, Etienne Oosthuizen, Jordan Smiler, Mark Swanepoel, Robbie Coleman, Zack Holmes

Key Player

Jesse Mogg.  One of the most dangerous runners in the game will be desperate to show what Robbie Deans is missing out on, having been overlooked in favour of Israel Folau.  The young full back may look like an archaeology student, but don't let that fool you – his lanky frame is surprisingly strong and his turn of speed and change of direction is devastating.  The only questions to be asked of Mogg are around his kicking game, which can be a little bit aimless at times – if the Lions put in a good chase that negates running options, Mogg will need to be more accurate because there will be a pretty nippy back 3 waiting to return poor kicks with interest.  On the flip side, this is a chance for him to shine so he'll need to exploit any poor chases and join the line as much as possible.

 
Lions Team News

Former Wales wing Shane Williams has been drafted into the British and Irish Lions team for Tuesday's final warm-up game against ACT Brumbies in Canberra.  Wales' record try-scorer, the 36-year-old is currently playing in Japan after quitting international rugby in 2011.  The shock call-up sees him feature in a team that also includes England backs Christian Wade and Brad Barritt, who have been called up as injury cover and will arrive in Australia on Monday.   Ireland's Rory Best will captain a side that also sees Rob Kearney and Ryan Grant start for the first time on tour and Stuart Hogg reprises his role as a make-shift fly half.

Starting Line up:  Rob Kearney, Christian Wade, Brad Barritt, Billy Twelvetrees, Shane Williams, Stuart Hogg, Ben Youngs; Ryan Grant, Rory Best (capt), Matt Stevens, Ian Evans, Richie Gray, Sean O'Brien, Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau
Subs: Richard Hibbard, Alex Corbisiero, Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Dan Lydiate, Conor Murray, Owen Farrell, Simon Zebo

Key Player

Shane Williams.  I am sure I am not the only one who spat their morning coffee out when they saw that the ex-Welsh wizard had been called up to 'lend the Lions a hand' against the Brumbies.  In his pomp, the former Ospreys man was bamboozlingly brilliant, with his quick feet only matched by his even-quicker rugby brain.  How he will adapt from playing Japanese Division 2 rugby to taking on some of Super Rugby will be a key issue – for the Lions' sake, he will need to adapt quickly because he is marking the lightening Henry Speight, who's mixture of pace and power has seen him jointly-top the Super Rugby try-scoring charts this year.  If Shane can handle Speight, the Lions will have a chance – and who knows, maybe the old dog has picked up a few new tricks whilst he's been away.

 
Key Battle

Colby Faingaa v Justin Tipuric.  The Faingaa family is quickly becoming a rugby dynasty and the young openside is making a name for himself after the fairly notable losses of David Pocock and George Smith.  Losing such quality may have had a devastating effect on the Brumbies' Super XV hopes if it wasn't for the quick and aggressive Faingaa stepping up to the plate with remarkable ease and putting in a series of powerful performances that have really caught the eye.  Catching the eye will be the main goal of Justin Tipuric, who has looked in great nick on this tour but looks set to miss out on Test selection thanks to captain Sam Warburton hitting some decent form.  In a game where the Lions' pack may just have an edge, and a Brumbies backline that looks considerably more cohesive, the battle between the 2 opensides will be critical.  If Tipuric can slow down Brumbies' ball then it will make the defensive task of his slap-dash fairies out wide much easier, whilst if Faingaa can take Tipuric out of the game, then we will have a right royal battle on our hands.


Prediction

I had this pegged prior to the Tour as being potentially the toughest non-test game of the lot for the tourists, and that view hasn't changed.  The Brumbies are in great nick and look in ominously good form in Super Rugby – plus, because of their relative inexperience, many of their players have been overlooked for Test selection despite having sterling seasons so far.  Their unity and time together is in stark contrast to a Lions side that has more than a whiff of mix-and-match about it – especially in the back line.  Who knows how this Lions side will gel?  If it clicks, it might be happy sailing, but given that half the team only met up for the first time today, I can't see that being a likely outcome.  I reckon we'll see a prized scalp for the Australian conference leaders.   Brumbies by 4.
 

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