Preview - The First Test - Australia v British & Irish Lions

I attended a business course today about managing client relationships.  It was one of those courses that you sort of initially view as essentially a sort of extra day’s holiday – paid for by work – before you realise that there is some actually some pretty useful stuff buried in there.  One aspect of it was called ‘Expectation Management’.  Now this, I’ve comes to realise, goes beyond making self-depreciating remarks to women who have, for some reason, taken an interest in you, but can actually be applied in all sorts of everyday situations.  The First Test of a Lions Tour is, of course, not an everyday situation, but I nonetheless tried to think of a suitable way to utilise these ‘expectation management’ skills in relation to tomorrow’s match.

I failed.  Miserably.  It’s a Lions tour for goodness sake.  The First Test.  I’m so excited that shares in underwear manufacturers have skyrocketed over the last week and nothing I see or read, about injuries or weather conditions, can change my mind about that.  The English press have gone into even more extravagant realm of hyperbole, the Aussie commentators have reached a new peak of their already boisterous excitement (see below) and it seems that everyone from the UK, Ireland and Australia are somehow emotionally invested in the outcome.  People have their own views on what the best place for a Lions tour is but, in my opinion, nowhere comes close to Australia when it comes to quality banter (borderlining on offensive most of the time, of course).

 

So what can we expect in this match up?  The Wallabies look almost as mix-and-match as the tourists, throwing 3 blokes in for their debut against the Lions and ignoring experienced campaigners for starting spots like Quade Cooper and Drew Mitchell.  They’re also facing arguments of being undercooked, having not played any warm-up games, but I don’t buy into that.  Guys like Moore, Horwill, Genia, O’Connor and Ashley-Cooper have all played countless games against top-level opposition and can at least know roughly what to expect at kick off, despite the intensity generally going up another notch for Lions Tests.  They will also have used their time hidden away in training to analyse each and every trick up Gatland’s sleeve.  The Wallabies will know that the kiwi loves simple one-out passes off the breakdown and big runners up the middle – but they will also know this is the Welsh style of play that they have dealt with before and if they chop the Lions’ runners down early, there is every chance the tourists will panic and kick the ball back towards the intelligent Berrick Barnes, the mercurial Israel Folau and the irrepressible Digby Ione, and that’s the sort of situation the Wallabies thrive on.

The Lions will be missing the ultra-physical presence of either Jamie Roberts or Manu Tuilagi at 12, so Jonathan Davies will be charged with making yards.  But this isn’t his forte – he’s not weak, by any stretch of the imagination, but his real strengths lie in creating space for others and hitting superb support lines.  Gatland demonstrated against the Brumbies that he will try and get his sides playing the same way even if he doesn’t have the correct personnel to execute that game plan – Twelvetrees is another example of a centre that can hold his own, but why was he exclusively used on a crash when he’s one of the best passers of the ball around.  Hopefully, the Lions will adapt their game plan, or at least use the size and speed of George North and Alex Cuthbert in the middle of the park more often they have been in order to make sure that yards can still be made in the middle of the park.  But the tourists have looked sharp on several occasions – most notably against the Waratahs – and are more than capable of playing some sexy rugby, provided the set piece holds up and captain Sam Warburton can get his pack dominating the contact off the initial phases.

Of course, most of the above will probably go out of the window tomorrow morning.  This is a Lions Test Match, and games are won by blood, sweat, determination and timeless moments of brilliance that will resonate for generations to come; they’re not won by theories on a piece of paper.  For us mortal fans, we can sit happily in the knowledge that history will be made tomorrow in a game that already has the word epic scrawled all over it – and that is an expectation I have no intention of managing.

Australia Team News

Brumbies pair Ben Mowen and Christian Leali'ifano, alongside New South Wales Waratahs back Israel Folau, will all make their international debuts in Saturday's opening Test of the British & Irish Lions tour at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.   Leali'ifano, who starts at inside-centre, and Folau, wing, join an exciting backline which sees the Gold Coast-raised James O'Connor team with Queensland scrum-half Will Genia as the halves combination.

Starting Line up:  Berrick Barnes; Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Christian Lealiifano, Digby Ioane; James O'Connor, Will Genia; Benn Robinson, Stephen Moore, Ben Alexander; Kane Douglas, James Horwill (captain); Ben Mowen, Michael Hooper, Wycliff Palu.

Subs: Saia Fainga'a, James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, Rob Simmons, Liam Gill, Nick Phipps, Pat McCabe, Kurtley Beale.

Key Player

Will Genia.  I still reckon it’s a mistake not to have Quade Cooper in the side, but the extra creative responsibility will not bother Genia one jot – if anything, it will take his performance to another level.  The Reds’ maestro is lightening fast and the best-decision maker in the game, as well as being surprisingly physical; he is, in my book, the best scrum half in world rugby.  The Lions have banked on Phillips getting under his skin in order to stop the Wallaby momentum at source, but George Gregan’s successor will know how to handle the big Welshman and very rarely lets himself get ruffled by extra ‘physical attention’.  If he can shrug off the advances of the Phillips then the Lions will have to contend not only with a running threat around the fringes, but also a lightning fast service to a very dangerous backline.

Lions Team News

Sam Warburton will lead out the British & Irish Lions against the Wallabies on Saturday in the first Test of the 2013 series.  The side features eight players making their Lions Test debut with the line-up also including two former captains, Brian O'Driscoll who led the team in 2005 and Paul O'Connell in 2009. Perhaps the most noticeable inclusion is Alex Corbisiero who is named at loose-head having not been named in the original 37-man squad. Corbisiero was included after Cian Healy was ruled out through injury following the Western Force game.

Starting Line up: Leigh Halfpenny, Alex Cuthbert, Brian O'Driscoll, Jonathan Davies, George North, Jonathan Sexton, Mike Phillips; Alex Corbisiero, Tom Youngs, Adam Jones, Alun-Wyn Jones, Paul O'Connell, Tom Croft, Sam Warburton (captain), Jamie Heaslip

Subs: Richard Hibbard, Mako Vunipola, Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Dan Lydiate, Ben Youngs, Owen Farrell, Sean Maitland

Key Player

Tom Youngs.  A lot of focus has been on the surprise call up of his England colleague, Alex Corbisiero, but Youngs will have by far the more critical role.  He’s been the form hooker on this tour with his carrying and defensive work – topping the tackling charts for a tight-5 forward – and his throwing has been solid, but the lineout is an area which the Aussies will really target.  He has his old mucker Tom Croft to aim for, but James Horwill and company will look to congest the middle of the lineout and force Youngs to throw long – an option we haven’t seen him take on this tour.  It’s a big test for the ex-centre, but one he shouldn’t be daunted by – he threw 100% the last time England played Australia.  If he can lead not only a safe lineout, but an enterprising one, then the Lions will have secured one of the major pieces of ‘unstable ground’ in the Test.

Key Battle

Michael Hooper v Sam Warburton.  Yes, everyone seems to have been banging on about Genia and Phillips, but for me the real battle is between the 2 opensides.  Hooper has big boots (and bicep-sleeves) to fill when he where’s the 7 shirt, with the terminator David Pocock and the legendary George Smith both out injured.  But Hooper is a phenomenal athlete and he certainly offers more in attack than either of the 2 more experienced candidates – he hits a centre’s lines, and showed he had the pace and footwork to round Israel Dagg the other week in Super Rugby.  But he will need to take his groundwork to another level against the Lions – he’s shown how effective he can be for the Waratahs, but now he needs to earn that ‘nuisance tag’ in a Green and Gold jersey.  Sam Warburton, meanwhile, has been looking sharp this tour, doing a lot of the dirty work – which is especially important when you have 2 ‘flash’ backrowers like Croft and Heaslip alongside you.  He needs to match Hooper’s energy and beat him to the first phase breakdown – if he manages to secure quick ball, the Lions will look very dangerous.  If Hooper is first to the scene, then the Lions will be forced to play off slow ball and probably kick – and with the back 3 the Wallabies have, that’s never a good option to resort to.

Prediction

This is it.  A Test Match 12 years in the making.  And, to some extent, it’s impossible to predict what will happen – with colossal battles all over the pitch that could go either way and potentially decide the outcome of this game or even, potentially, the series.  The Wallabies actually go into this one as more of an unknown quantity than the Lions, but it could actually end up working to their advantage.  Behind closed doors, the players pulling on the Green and Gold jersey will have been doing their homework and they will realise that this side will adopt the Welsh style of play – and it is a style they know they can handle and defeat.  Of course, so much depends on how their new boys – Folau, Mowen and Lealiifano – settle in to the side, but I have a suspicion that the element of surprise may be critical in this encounter; there's no chance of them being shellshocked like they were in 2001 though.  I still maintain that the Lions will need to adopt a faster, smarter style of play than simply the bash-it-up-in-the-middle technique and that actually gets me leaning towards a win for the hosts against a battle-hardened Lions outfit - especially at Suncorp, a real bearpit of a home ground for the Wallabies of late.  Wallabies by 2.