Autumn International Preview - England v Australia

A dark secret of mine is that, after a shandy or nine, I get an irrepressible urge to go onto one of the funniest websites known to mankind – Chat Roulette.  The nature of the website is that you are randomly connected to a video chat to someone else who is logged into the website anywhere in the world, and you can skip if you don't fancy speaking to them.  Or just don't fancy them full stop.  Of course, the majority of participants are sexually frustrated middle-aged men or drunken fools who think it's funny to irritate those I've just described, with a brief smattering of people who genuinely want to see what's going on elsewhere in the world.  I should probably point out that I consider myself as someone in the latter category after a few beers, although I’m sure others would argue otherwise.

Anyway, the point of me ruining my social credibility by divulging this habit, is that I ended up chatting to a charming Aussie bloke on Saturday after a night on the beers.  He was sat without a shirt on, with a wide-brimmed hat on his head, a bottle of VB in his left hand and a tattoo of a vagina on his right shoulder.  He wasted no time in gloating about Australian’s glorious victory over England in the rugby league.  I assumed this was banter and so politely pointed out that it was about time they won something after their attempts in the cricket and the Lions series, at which point he flew off the handle, called me every name under the sun and spat at his own computer camera.  It just goes to show that, if there are any people who match us English for sulking when we lose, it’s the Aussies.

Which, fortunately for rugby fans, means that the games between England and Australia usually have an added bit of spice.  They also seem to have a habit of going against the grain in recent years – in 2010, the Wallabies were being touted as World Cup contenders after beating New Zealand, before being dismantled by a Chris Ashton-inspired England side, whilst last year they recovered from taking a hiding from the French to turn over the men in white in their own backyard.  It all makes Saturday’s contest all the more intriguing, since it is so difficult to pick an out-and-out favourite this time.

The Wallabies come into this off what, at first glance, looks like an abysmal Rugby Championship campaign, managing just two wins against Argentina and suffering two losses against the South Africans and 3 against All Blacks.  Put that on top of a Lions Series loss, and you get the impression of a side really struggling for form.  But look a little closer, and you realise the Wallabies managed to push the cream of British and Irish talent to within a slipped-kick of a series win, they hammered the Pumas 54-17 in Rosario and put 33 points on the All Blacks in their last Bledisloe game.  You get the impression that Ewan Mackenzie is building something good – and with the likes of Will Genia, Michael Hooper, Quade Cooper, Israel Folau and Adam Ashley-Cooper in the ranks, this is a side that is not short on speed, skill or guile.  Even the stripping of the captaincy from James Horwill does little to weaken the effect, with new skipper Ben Mowen proving himself time and again as a real workhorse who leads from the front.

For Stuart Lancaster, this is almost a step into the unknown.  The Argentina tour was largely a series between second-string sides, so this is the first time he’s had the big boys together since that humbling loss to Wales.  I say he’s got his group together, but he’s actually missing 4 Lions who form the spine of his side – Alex Corbisiero, Geoff Parling, Tom Croft and Manu Tuilagi.  Corbisiero and Tuilagi are, in particular, huge losses as they are in effect England’s most potent attacking weapons.  Corbisiero is a dominant scrummager who wins penalty after penalty – as Ben Alexander found out in the summer – and, whilst Mako Vunipola is a great player elsewhere, he lacks that set-piece dominance.  And as for Tuilagi, he is the one England player who is spoken about in hushed whispers in the Southern Hemisphere as a man/monster genuinely feared by defences.  Lancaster’s selection of Joel Tomkins in his place is understandable – the former league man is a big unit with a sweet offload – but I don’t think it’s necessarily right.  I’ve yet to see Tomkins do anything to stand himself out as an international player, and the possibility of playing the in-form Henry Trinder or electric Kyle Eastmond would allow England to develop an alternative backline strategy to keep as an option if the Tuilagi approach wasn’t working.

Elsewhere, there are few surprises.  Lancaster obviously rates Ben Youngs, which is why he is still in the squad ahead of Danny Care, and Lee Dickson is without doubt the man in form at the moment.  I suspect that Youngs was retained last week to work on conditioning and lose a couple of extra kilos he is carrying as a result of missing pre-season, so he will have a real opportunity to showcase his undoubted talent off the bench.  Lawes is also an uncontroversial pick in the absence of the excellent Parling, having weighed in with some thunderous performances for Saints of late, but the one selection I’m unsure of in the pack is Billy Vunipola.  He is a huge talent and a huge man, but his ball-control at the base of the scrum is so poor that Saracens play him at blindside, whilst his ball carrying remains too upright.  Ben Morgan may not have been in sparkling form but he’s playing behind a tight 5 at Gloucester who are as threatening as a bag of bunnies, so I’d have stuck with the ex-Llanelli man and had Vunipola for some real impact off the bench.

But selections will only get you so far.  On Saturday, it will all come down to one of the best rivalries in sport.  And I’m sure that, no matter what the result, we can all have a friendly chat about it afterwards.  Yeah right...

 

England Team News

Joel Tomkins will make his England debut at outside centre in Saturday's first autumn Test against Australia.  Tomkins, 26, whose brother Sam will play for England in their Rugby League World Cup match against Ireland on the same day, partners Billy Twelvetrees in a new-look midfield at Twickenham.  Northampton's Lee Dickson is chosen at scrum-half ahead of Leicester's Ben Youngs, who is on the bench.  Billy Vunipola starts his first Test, and wing Marland Yarde his second.

Starting Line up: Mike Brown, Chris Ashton, Joel Tomkins, Billy Twelvetrees, Marland Yarde, Owen Farrell, Lee Dickson; Mako Vunipola, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (captain), Billy Vunipola.

Subs: Dylan Hartley, Joe Marler, David Wilson, Dave Attwood, Ben Morgan, Ben Youngs, Toby Flood, Ben Foden

Key Player

Lee Dickson.  The Saints man arguably does not have to same raw talent as Ben Youngs and Danny Care, but he does offer something very different from either of them – he does the basics brilliantly.  Youngs and Care are genuine game-breakers with heads up rugby and threats around the fringes, but when not on form they do dither with their distribution.  Dickson has no such problems.  His focus is purely on getting to the breakdown and giving sharp service.  With the great offloaders of the likes of Tomkins and Twelvetrees in the middle of the park, and hard working wingers like Ashton and Yarde sniffing for opportunities, quick ball will be the order of the day if England are to break this Wallaby backline.

 

 

Australia Team News

Ben Mowen replaces James Horwill as captain of Australia for Saturday's meeting with England at Twickenham.   The back-row forward, 28, made his Test debut against the British and Irish Lions in June and will lead the Wallabies for the second time.  Australia coach Ewen McKenzie said 28-year-old Horwill's recent displays had led to him losing the captaincy.  Scott Fardy returns at blind-side flanker while Sitaleki Timani partners Horwill in the second row with fellow lock Rob Simmons a late withdrawal after re-injuring medial ligaments in training this week.  Nick Cummins, a try-scorer in Australia's 20-14 victory at Twickenham last year, returns on the wing after recovering from a fractured hand.   Matt Toomua retains the number 12 jersey ahead of ACT Brumbies team-mate Christian Leali'ifano, who has to settle for a place on the bench on his return from an ankle injury.

Starting Line up:  Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tevita Kuridrani, Matt Toomua, Nick Cummins, Quade Cooper, Will Genia; James Slipper, Stephen Moore, Ben Alexander, Sitaleki Timani, James Horwill, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, Ben Mowen (capt)

Subs: Saia Fainga'a, Benn Robinson, Sekope Kepu, Kane Douglas, Ben McCAlman, Nic White, Christian Leali'ifano, Bernard Foley.

Key Player

Matt Toomua.  The young Brumbies playmaker may have only made his Wallaby bow in the Rugby Championship but he did face the Lions for ACT in mid-week game – and boy did he make an impact.  He seemed to take a particular dislike to Billy Twelvetrees, smashing the Gloucester centre with ease and apparent glee time and time again, and showed skill and poise with the ball in hand.  With the firepower outside of him, Toomua knows he must be crisp and decisive with his distribution – and if he can put in a similar defensive shift like the last time he faced Twelvetrees, then he can shut England’s attack off at source.

 

Key Battle

Billy Vunipola v Ben Mowen.  Same position, two completely different players, both with massive points to prove.  There’s no doubting Vunipola’s raw physical talent but I still have concerns over his workrate and technique, both at the base of the scrum and on the carry.  He’ll learn pretty quickly that you can’t go into contact upright against international opposition – but if he gets it right then he could be devastating.  With two real grafters in Wood and Robshaw on the flanks, then Vunipola’s sole job will be to carry as much as possible – his workrate must be up to the task.  Mowen, on the other hand, is almost the polar opposite to England’s number 8.  A strong tackler, solid defensive organiser and an intelligent operator at the breakdown, Mowen doesn’t lack for the finer aspects of number 8 play, but in a backrow without huge ball carriers, it will be his job to make the hard yards with the ball in hand.  Will he be up to it?  Vunipola’s workrate v Mowen’s physicality could well be the decider in the key battle of who gets front foot ball.

Prediction

England will go into this game a little rusty and the Wallabies, as they have shown in their last 2 displays, are beginning to click.  I think the visitors will go ahead early and then the challenge will be to see what England can do to pull them back.  Despite having a very strong looking bench I don’t know if there’s enough venom in England’s attacking options to chase the Wallabies down should it come to it.  I’ve changed my mind a 1000 times on this but, due to the above, I’ve got a feeling the Wallabies will sneak it.  Australia by 3.
 

 

 

Other Internationals

 

Japan v New Zealand:  Despite bringing in plenty of new faces this won't be a problem for the Kiwis, who seem to have talented players popping up all over the place.  All Blacks by 30.