Premiership Preview - Northampton Saints v Saracens

One of the reasons why we love sport, why we keep coming back time after time, is the drama.  And not just the on-pitch drama, the last gasp drop-goal or try, the illegal tackle or controversial red card – it's the off-field stuff as well.  After every game with niggle, or any game that has something significant riding on it, a new set of sub-plots are born.  One side wants revenge, one man has a vendetta against another for a sly elbow, and so on and so forth.  In a sense we are effectively watching one big episode of Eastenders, except with shorts, boots, mud, rugby balls and an entire sporting rule book thrown in.  Perhaps it's nothing like Eastenders then, but hopefully you get my point – we love the drama and subtext as much as the sport itself.

And that's why Saints v Sarries is my game of the week.  Remember the last time these two met?  Sarries were on the crest of a wave, having finished the regular season on top of the pile and with most commentators tipping them for the Premiership crown.  They just had to win at a ground they hadn't lost at against a Northampton side who had snuck narrowly into the playoffs.  No problem?  Wrong.  Saints showed up as the anti-Saracens, with no fuss or fanfare – and proceeded to bully the living daylights out of Saracens to an extent I have not seen before or since.  It was a lesson which will have hurt the men from north-London, and a lesson they will be dying to repay when they arrive at Franklins Gardens tomorrow.

So with the backdrop set, who are the protagonists?  Unfortunately, international call-ups has seen some of the big names with points to prove out of the frame for this match – think Courtney Lawes and Owen Farrell.  But look around and you will see the like of the Pisi Brothers, Luther Burrell, Sam Dickinson, Jaques Burger, Alex Goode and Schalk Brits will still be going toe to toe in what promises to be another epic encounter between these 2. 

So where do the weaknesses lie?  Well for Saints, the absence of Dylan Hartley and Alex Corbisiero seriously weakens their scrummaging platform, but they seem pretty well covered elsewhere in the backline.  The opposite can probably be said for Saracens, who have covered the loss of Billy Vunipola with Kelly Brown, but with Farrell off with England and Charlie Hodgson out injured, they have turned to Nils Mordt.  Don't get me wrong, Mordt is a solid player – but to throw a bloke with no starts this season – who also doesn't play fly half all that regularly – into the fray, is a risky move.  There is intrigue all over the pitch and a series of mouthwatering confrontations.

And you can bet Saracens will be hungry for this one – revenge can be sweet.

Northampton Team News

Northampton make five changes to the side that beat Ospreys last weekend.   Kahn Fotuali'i makes his full home debut, while Mike Haywood, Ken Pisi, Calum Clark and Sam Dickinson also come into the starting XV.

Starting Line up:  Foden; K. Pisi, G. Pisi, Burrell, Elliott; Myler, Fotuali'i; Waller, Haywood, Ma'afu; Manoa, Day; Clark, Dowson (capt), Dickinson.

Subs: McMillan, Waller, Denman, Van Velze, Nutley, Glynn, Waldouck, Wilson.

Key Player

Kahn Fotuali'i.  I predicted that this guy could be the signing – if not the player of the season – but, so far, Lee Dickson's terrific form has left Fotuali'i frustrated and me with egg on my face.  However, Dickson's form has been such that he seems a certainty to take part in the Autumn Internationals, which means the Samoan 9 can now get a run in the side to show what he can do – and he will relish the chance to face Saracens first up.  As with most Islanders, he relishes physical confrontation and has the quick feet to get out of trouble.  Sarries will be targeting him as a potentially rusty link in the side – it will be interesting to see how he faces up to the test.

Saracens Team News

Premiership leaders Saracens give a first start to Richard Barrington, with Mako Vunipola on international duty with England and Rhys Gill injured.   Fly-half Nils Mordt starts his first game of the season alongside scrum-half Richard Wigglesworth.

Starting Line up:  Goode; Tagicakibau, Wyles, Taylor, Strettle; Mordt, Wigglesworth; Barrington, Brits, Stevens; Borthwick (capt), Hargreaves; Brown, Burger, Joubert.

Subs: George, Auterac, Johnston, Botha, Wray, De Kock, Bosch, Ransom.

Key Player

Steve Borthwick.  Yes, he's about as exciting as the inside of a paper bag, but the former England skipper is so crucial to Saracens.  He's a leader, not just in the sense of being captain, but in terms of ensuring that the approach by his side starts physical and remains physical throughout the game.  Sure, he may not have the athleticism or raw strength of others, but his intelligent reading of the game and the set piece, in particular, adds balance to a monster Saracens pack.  He will have been particularly stung by his side's loss to Northampton last season and will have to ensure his side focus that enthusiastic aggression and desire to exact revenge in a productive way.

 

Key Battle

Calum Clark v Kelly Brown.  From being on the cusp of the England squad to not getting a start for Saints this season, Clark has cut a frustrated figure in the opening few games.  However, the absence of Tom Wood has given the powerful young flanker a chance to stake a real claim and build up some momentum.  With a good technique and a relentlessly physical and aggressive approach – occasionally too aggressive, as Rob Hawkins' mangled elbow can testify – the big blindside has all the qualities to neutralise the Saracens' gameplan.  That gameplan, with the absence of a recognised Premiership-quality fly half, will be to smash the Northampton pack to give Nils Mordt as smooth a ride as possible, and Kelly Brown's athleticism and intelligence at the breakdown will be a key component on that.  Who comes out on top here could tip the balance in the context of the game.

Prediction

When you look at the line ups for this game, you end up changing your mind about the likely winner than schizophrenic bookie.  Saints look like they have suffered more in the pack due to international call ups, with the front row in particular looking vulnerable.  If they struggled in the set piece against Leicester with Hartley and Corbisiero, how are they going to cope without them against Saracens.  However, the call ups have left Sarries fielding a rather slap-dash midfield, whilst Northampton are lucky enough to replace quality with quality.  Oh, Lee Dickson's not here?  That's OK, we'll just bring in one of the best scrum halves in Europe to replace him.  In a game of edges it is the visitors who look like they should edge the forwards battle – especially in the tight – whilst the hosts have the firepower to cause damage out wide.  Although the mantra is usually that the forwards will decide who will win, I just feel that, in front of Franklins Gardens, Northampton should have just enough to squeeze a win – provided they can win their own ball on set piece.  Saints by 3.

 

What else is happening in the Premiership this weekend?

Bath v Gloucester:  A cracking West Country derby that would have been my game of the weekend had it not been 1st v 2nd on Saturday.  Bath are in the better form and I expect them to pick up a win against the Cherry and Whites.  Bath by 9.

Harlequins v Sale Sharks:  Quins finally looked like they'd hit some form in the second half against Clermont but they will need to carry that on against a Sale side who have been resurgent this season.  Home advantage should just about do it.  Quins by 5.

Exeter Chiefs v Worcester Warriors:  The Chiefs have started to hit form of late and they look a real handful at home again – Sandy Park is not the best place for the Warriors to break their duck this season.  Chiefs by 12.

London Wasps v Leicester Tigers:  Wasps have been arguably the unluckiest side in the Premiership but they need to start converting narrow defeats into victories.  With the visit of a Leicester Tigers side who haven't won at Adams Park since 2007, and an unrecognisable backline thanks to injury and international call ups, this might the game to make that change.  Wasps by 3.

Newcastle Falcons v London Irish:  Another game which looks like it might have huge ramifications come the end of the season.  Irish have been impressively overperforming but Dean Richards men will have long earmarked this one as a must-win.  Falcons by 4.