Friday, 11 October 2013

The Big Heineken Cup Preview




Heineken Cup time once again – and, horribly, possibly for the last time.  I personally don't have the foresight to think ahead to next season, so instead I'm just going to enjoy what's on the plate right now.  Join RuckedOver in a fairly beefy preview of this year's Heiny-Champions-League-Cup…or whatever it's called….

 
Pool 1

Leinster

The Irish giants have been such a dominant presence over recent years in Europe's premier competition that it was surreal not to see them in the knock out stages last year.  Perhaps that had something to do with that winning mentality leaving them after so many years of finishing on top or the fact that their side is aging, but they showed that tenacity to win the Pro 12 for the first time in 2008 at the end of the season.  Their form in the league has been patchy this season but, with respect, Pro 12 form is rarely a solid barometer for European pedigree.  One thing is for sure though – the men in blue will have got their hunger for Heineken success back again.

One to watch:  Ian Madigan.  With the loss of Jonny Sexton, the young fly half will be forced to live up to his billing in the spotlight.  With a solid boot off the tee to complement speed and power on the carry, the Irishman needs to show game management skills beyond his years if Leinster are to challenge the very best.

Prediction:  2nd (Eliminated).  They have enough class to push for top spot but, in a tight group, points will be lower.  I think that second place won't be enough for the men in blue.

 

 Ospreys

Poor Ospreys.  Every year, without fail, they seem to be in a group of death.  Perhaps that is a reflection on the standard of European rugby these days, or a stroke of bad luck, but it has meant that this talented Ospreys squad have never been able to make the waves they should in European rugby.  An impressive start to the season has the Welsh side sitting in 3rd place in the Pro 12, but being grouped with such massive sides will make qualification a tough process for the men in black.  But with Adam Jones anchoring the pack, Alun Wyn Jones leading the charge and Dan Biggar keeping the scoreboard moving, they are capable of beating anyone on their day – but do they have enough class elsewhere to do it consistently?

One to watch:  Eli Walker.  See his run against Leicester last year at the Liberty Stadium for why this guy is pure dynamite.  He was a dark horse for a Lions spot, his form was so electric last year, and he will be hoping to get the ball in space once again to show what he can do.

Prediction:  3rd.  The Welsh side will always be a real challenge at home and has the potential to do well, but they've always looked fragile away from the Liberty stadium in recent years and that will be their downfall.

 

 Castres

Perhaps they, beyond all others, sum up the typically frustrating French club in Europe.  In a similar way to Bourgoin several years ago, the talented outfit are a real force domestically (Top 14 Champions) – despite lacking the resources and big names of others – but seem to waft through European competition with a nonchalant shrug of the shoulders, as if they'd rather be eating croissant and drinking coffee (or whatever it is French people do) or, perhaps more realistically, focusing on the league.  Their form in the Top 14 this year has been a little rocky – they sit in 9th place – although they are only 7 points off top spot.

One to watch:  Richie Gray.  One of their few big superstars, Gray came good in the Lions tour after a poor season at Sale last year.  In a side that is known for its graft and intelligent play, Gray has a key role to play as a lineout king and an enforcer at the breakdown.

Prediction:  4th.  Another side who could seriously come up trumps with the talent at their disposal, but I'm just not sure they have the desire for it. They may well play the role of kingmaker, but they won't be kings.

 

Northampton Saints

Off to a strong start in the Premiership, it looks as if Saints have taken that next step from being perennial runners-up – they now have the ammunition to go big time.  The power of their pack is still a key weapon but the form of Luther Burrell, Ben Foden and the introduction of George North has added serious firepower.  Their one weak spot now seems to be their scrum, where they lack an international class tighthead, but the talent across the park in other departments is unbelievable.  Tom Wood has made it clear that they have genuine European ambitions this year – but we didn't need telling that.

One to watch:  George North.  At his size, it's hard not to watch him, but his physical talent makes him pure box-office.  He's been yet to get fully into his stride at Northampton and still needs to adapt to their systems, but he's shown enough moments of inspiration to prove that he's the big time player they need.

Prediction:  1st (Quarter Finals).  I think that, in a tight group, the points secured by the top team will be lower than others, meaning Saints may well face a challenging away trip in the Quarters.

 
 
Pool 2


Exeter Chiefs

Their first season in Europe may not have ended with drastic success, but they still put in some displays the earned the respect of the rest of rugby fraternity – most notably against Leinster away, where they were within a whisker of pulling off one of the shock results in the tournament’s history.   The Chiefs have started the season domestically with no major signings and a bit of iffy form, although with a pack as powerful as theirs and a fly half as monotonously accurate as Gareth Steenson, you can bet they will prove to be frustrating opponents for anyone.

One to watch:  Dean Mumm.  The ex-Wallaby has been given the captaincy this season and has proved his worth with a series of powerful displays, and showing in unnervingly good eye for the tryline for a lock.  His ability to front up is what the Chiefs are all about so expect him to lead from the front.

Prediction: 3rd.  With Toulon in the group, they’ll most likely be scrapping for second place.  They’ll certainly be a handful at Sandy Park but it’s hard to see them causing too much damage away from home.

 

Toulon

Money doesn’t buy happiness – but it does win you Heineken Cups, as Toulon proved last year.  Perhaps that’s a bit unfair though.  They may have a squad that reads like the dream team I set up on EA Sports Rugby 2008 on the Playstation 2 but they have a genuine commitment to each other and a strong team spirit.  The reigning champions will be keen to follow up last year’s success with a win, especially since they were thwarted in their attempts to claim a historic double in the final of the Top 14 playoffs, surprisingly losing to Castres.

One to watch:  Bryan Habana.  When he eventually joins up with the French giants it will be bad news for the rest of Europe.  The veteran winger was in sparkling form for the Springboks in the Rugby Championship and his pace and intelligent running will be a major weapon in the Toulon armoury.

Prediction:  1st (semi-finals).  The reigning champions are a class act, no doubt, but they still don’t strike me as being a vintage side, sometimes playing too slowly to pose an attacking threat.  They’ll be there or there abouts again this year, but I don’t think they’ll be retaining their title.

 

Cardiff Blues

Welsh rugby might be in a difficult place at the moment but you can’t help but admire some of the talent the clubs have at their disposal.  Despite looking unimpressive in the league so far this year, the Blues can still call upon the likes of Gethin Jenkins, Sam Warburton and Lions hero Leigh Halfpenny to drive them onwards.  Their problem?  Like so many of their fellow Welsh clubs, the exodus of top players has left plenty of quality gaps throughout the side.

One to watch:  Alex Cuthbert.  I’ve always thought of Cuthbert as being a bit of a headless chicken on the rugby pitch, but he has started the season in good form and with bags of pace and power, his involvement will be key to Cardiff’s chances.

Prediction:  4th.  It’s hard to see the Blues managing to upset the reigning European Champions, and the other two sides will certainly fancy their chances at home against the Welsh outfit.  They’ll be competitive, but they won’t be around for long.

 

Glasgow Warriors

Usually bit-part players who represent all that’s wrong with the European qualification system, the Warriors have been the surprise package in the Pro 12 so far this year, winning all 5 of their opening games.  They’re not scoring a whole lot of tries but they seem to have it all figured out defensively, conceding an average of just 10.2 points game.  With guys like Sean Maitland and Chris Cusiter lurking in the backline though, you know it’s a matter of when – not if – they click, and with a big pack led by Ali Kellock, Ryan Grant and Richie Vernon, you know they’ll be causing sides a lot of problems.

One to watch:  Duncan Weir.  The young Scottish playmaker may look like a garden gnome but he impressed in his debut international season last year and he’s been looking both measured and threatening so far this year.  He needs to kick on to avoid second-season syndrome, and if he does it will be a huge asset to club and country.

Prediction:  2nd (eliminated).  I like the look of this Glasgow side and, if everyone stays fit, they should turn some heads.  I can’t see them progressing beyond the last 8 but making the knockout stages is potentially with reach would represent a step in the right direction for the Scottish side.

 

Pool 3

Toulouse

The French giants may not be the all-conquering juggernauts they have been in previous years, but any side that holds the records for the largest cabinet of European trophies is a force that must be reckoned with.  They still possess bags of class and young talent in their ranks – Maxime Medard, Gael Fickou and Yannick Nyanga to name but 3 – but there is a general feeling that the side overall is aging and struggles to cope with teams that play at a consistently physical and high tempo.  They're looking strong in the Top 14 though this year although, like all the French clubs, they seem to be having real problems winning away from home.

One to watch:  Hosea Gear.  The prodigiously talented winger is over for a stint after co-captaining the Highlanders and in my opinion it’s the right move for him – he's never received the international recognition his speed, power and skill deserves.  He's a force of nature and will be desperate to showcase this on the European stage.

Prediction:  2nd (Quarter finals).  The French side have been blessed with a relatively easy group and it should be close between them and Saracens for top spot – but there'll be enough points on offer elsewhere to claim a best runners up spot.

 

Connacht

Despite being traditionally the weakest of the 4 Irish provinces, Connacht have enjoyed their recent forays into the Heineken Cup, upsetting the likes of Harlequins in the monsoon-like conditions that grace the fields of Galway.  Despite being a major banana-skin for travelling sides, it is fair to say that the Irish side lack the out-and-out class of their compatriots, although the likes of John Muldoon and Dan Parks add some real nous and direction.  It's difficult to see them upsetting the apple cart too much – their Pro 12 from sees them languishing in 11th place – but there'll be few sides relishing a trip to the West of Ireland.

One to watch:  James So'oialo.  The Samoan international is a new arrival for the men in green and has brought with him the destructive ability of the Pacific Islanders, with brute force in the tackle and on the carry being the order of the day.  But the utility back is also a subtle ball player and is useful off the kicking tee, making him an ideal all-rounder for this inexperienced Connacht outfit.  It's a shame about his ludicrous haircut though.

Prediction:  3rd. They'll give sides a run for their money at home but there is a significant gulf in class between them and the likes of Saracens and Toulouse.  It'll be a wooden spoon battle between them and Zebre.

 

Saracens

The rising force of English rugby seem to have taken the next step this year, making relatively few signings but ensuring each new arrival brings something extra to the team.  The additions of James Johnston and Billy Vunipola, plus the return and form of Jacques Burger, means that this Saracens side has a pack to compete with the very best of them.  And, as their domestic form has shown, they're now playing a new brand of rugby that brings in the talent outside as well, with the likes of Chris Ashton and Owen Farrell looking very sharp.  They're generally disliked as a side, but if you hold your ears when their awful 'Stand up for Saracens' song plays, there's some very decent rugby on offer at Allianz Park.

One to watch:  Billy Vunipola.  The gargantuan number 8 has quickly become a fixture in the side, along with his brother, and will be looking to make waves internationally as well this year.  His colossal power on the carry and improved fitness has meant that Sarries can always play off front foot ball.

Prediction:  1st (Champions).  It's a big call, with so many good sides around, but with the struggles the French sides have away from home and the way Saracens have started this season, they have the potential to go all the way.  It pains me to say it, but something special may actually be happening at Saracens.

 

Zebre

Poor old Zebre.  Perhaps an example as to why a meritocracy in qualification is desired by the English and French clubs, Zebre's guaranteed place in the Heineken Cup has meant that they are little more than cannon-fodder for the big sides looking to pick up bonus points.  That said, they have proved in the Pro 12 this season that they are capable of producing the odd big performance and the occasional upset so, whilst they may not be anywhere near the top end of the pool, they'll certainly be targeting Connacht and will fancy their chances against anyone at home.

One to watch: Giovanbattista Venditti.  The powerful winger has shown in the Six Nations what a handful he is to defend against and he is crucial to the Italian side's attacking game.  Coming in off his wing, he is a physical presence and will always concern opposition defenders.

Prediction:  4th.  I can't see anything above 3rd place for the minnows in this group, and their recent loss to Connacht doesn't help.  They'll fancy their chances at home, of course, but they'll be playing for pride more than a spot in the knockout stages.



Pool 4

Scarlets

The Llanelli side have maintained their proud tradition of playing with typical Welsh skill and flair over the years but have often been undone by a pack that is about as threatening as Mother Theresa.  It's meant that, when they have space, they are able to tear sides to shreds with slick offloading, fast hands and wonderful running angles, but if the opposition manage to slow the game down, they struggle to compete in an arm wrestle.  Not much seems to have changed this year as they wallow in the mid-table of the Pro 12, but with the likes of Rhys Priestland and Jonathan Davies in the ranks, you can never afford to take your eyes off them.

One to watch:  Jordan Williams.  The winger has lightening quick feet and superb acceleration, as he showed when he seemingly beat half of the Edinburgh side to cross for a fantastic solo try in the Pro 12.  If he gets the chance to run kicks back then he'll cause plenty of problems.

Prediction:  4th.  The Scarlets will be competitive and are a decent side but they unfortunately find themselves in one hell of a group, with 3 sides who will believe that they can go the distance.  They'll keep the entertainment value up but they won't be threatening the quarter finals.

 

Clermont Auvergne

Unofficially, the best team in Europe over the last 3 years, yet somehow they always manage to balls it up, losing games that they simply shouldn't be losing – a prime example being the Heineken Cup Final last year.  How they lost to Toulon when they seemingly had it in the bag was a mystery to me.  But once again, you have to step back and admire the sheer talent they have coursing through their squad – from Wesley Fofana to Benjamin Kayser – and their home record remains the most formidable in Europe.

One to watch:  Julien Bonnaire.  Well, if the rumours are true and Ma'a Nonu joins, then that will certainly be a spectacle, but otherwise the veteran back rower remains a key figure for Clermont.  Fast around the park and dominant in the lineout, he is a major part of the platform from which the men in white launch their unstoppable attacks.

Prediction:  1st (Runners up).  Clermont are still an unbelievably talented side and should have no problems getting out of their group – and from there it all depends if they can get home advantage.  The difference for them is huge, and if the draw goes their way I can see them making it all the way to the final – but in the hostile atmosphere of the Millennium Stadium, maybe the old away-day gremlins will return to haunt them.

 

Harlequins

Champions of England two years ago, the Londoners appear to be on something of a slight decline.  Looking dominant in Europe and the Premiership for the first six months of last season, Quins fans would have been forgiven for thinking a historic double was in the offing – instead, they tailed off badly, looking exhausted and suffering maulings by Munster in the quarter finals of Europe and Leicester in the play-offs.  This season hasn't gone according to plan either with two home defeats already, albeit to the mighty Saracens and Northampton.  However, on their day Quins are capable of mixing it up with the best, and we've seen flashes of that so far this season – the lightening fast offloading game is nigh-on impossible to defend against.

One to watch:  Nick Easter.  Charlie Walker and Jack Clifford are prodigious talents but it's difficult to see them getting much game time, so I've gone to the other end of the experience scale.  Packing down at lock more often than not, veteran Easter may well be in his final season but he has shown power and guile belying his years so far this term.  He'll be desperate to go out with a bang.

Prediction:  3rd.  They're certainly in with a shot of qualifying but I think it will be as a best runner-up…and they'll need their form and execution to pick up considerably if that's to happen.  They've looked panicked at times this season and the two big French clubs will look to exploit that.

 

Racing Metro

Another one of the French money-bags, Racing seem to have used the British & Irish Lions as a 'feeder' team for their squad.  With Dan Lydiate, Jamie Roberts and Johnny Sexton joining a team already stuffed full of quality players in the mould of Benjamin Fall and Maxime Machenaud.  Despite the huge influx of quality over the years, Racing are yet to make an impact on the European stage and haven't impressed so far this year in the Top 14.  Clearly they have some world-class operators, but you get the feeling that the rest of the squad may not quite have the same desire for European success as some of their imports.

One to watch:  Johnny Sexton.  If one person in this Racing side can appreciate the value of the Heineken Cup, it’s him.  The Ireland and Lions 10 is a class act and 3-time champion of Europe, with his virtuoso display against Northampton in 2011 ranking up there with the best.  He has to get his side to follow his example and treat the competition with the reverence it deserves.

Prediction:  2nd (Quarter finals).  I thought long and hard about this but Racing just have too much class to ignore.  With a hefty pack and dangerous set of backs, they will surely be a force this year…if they click.



Pool 5

Treviso

The Italian side have grown in stature each year to the point where, upon seeing your team grouped with Treviso, smiles and hopes of guaranteed 5-pointers have been replaced by nervous gulps and images of giant banana skins.  Lurking in mid-table in Pro 12 this year, they have already picked up home wins against Munster and Connacht, although they have been struggling for away form.  They gave Leicester and Toulouse real scares last year and will be relishing the thought at having another crack at the Tigers, who they seem to be perennially grouped with.

One to Watch:  Simone Favaro. The loss of Tommaso Benvenuti to Perpignan has left a shortage of X-Factor out wide, so it will be up to the pack to do the damage.  Favaro was a stand-out performance last Six Nations for the Azzurri and his powerful carrying and work over the ball will be key to keeping Treviso in games.

Prediction:  4th.  They've been grouped with 3 sides who may all have serious ambition this year and, although they will provide stern tests – particularly at home – it's hard to see them sneaking into the knockout stages.

 

Montpellier

All of a sudden, these guys have emerged as one of the premier forces in Europe – and I don't say that lightly.  Their multicultural side has some huge names in – literally, in the case of Mamuka Gorgodze.  With Nicholas Mas, Jim Hamilton, Johnnie Beattie and Fulgence Ouedrago in the pack, it's no wonder they have been dominating possession in the Top 14 and are sitting top of the pile.  Their backline is also glittering and the likes of Jonathan Pelissie and Francois Trinh-Duc have been in clinical form, even putting Clermont to the sword by administering a 40 point thrashing.  Doubts remain about their ability away from home, but there is no doubting the threat Montpellier pose.

One to watch:  Rene Ranger. After a stand-out season for the Blues in Super Rugby, the often overlooked Ranger has moved up north where his brand of searing speed, slick hands and phenomenal power will sure to make him a big hit with the locals…and a nightmare for the opposition.

Prediction:  2nd (Eliminated).  Difficult.  They are my dark horses for this year and have the raw potential to win the whole thing, but they blow seriously hot and cold and struggle away from home.  In a group with 3 difficult away fixtures in, it will come down to bonus points and points difference, and their away form may just be their undoing.

 

Ulster

After the euphoria of reaching the final 2 years ago, last year's campaign didn't quite scale the same heights, with a quarter final exit at the hands of Saracens.  However, they finished on top of the pile in the Pro 12 for the first time in their history, despite not winning the playoffs, and have shown signs of recovery after a poor start to the season this year.  Ravenhill remains one of the most intimidating places to play rugby and nobody will be looking forward to taking them on there, whilst news that Ruan Pienaar has signed a 3 year extension to his contract will have given the whole club a massive boost.

One to watch:  Paddy Jackson.  The young fly half didn't have the easiest of introductions to international rugby but he is valued highly by his club.  His eye for a gap and slick distribution makes him, on his day, one of the best attacking fly halves around but he can on occasion get a little flustered when put under pressure.

Prediction:  3rd.  Don't get me wrong, they have the potential to win the group, but I'm not quite sure they have the class across the board to beat Leicester or Montpellier away.  That said, there'll be a matter of 2-3 points I predict between first and third place, so it wouldn't be surprising at all to see them sneak into the quarters.

 

Leicester Tigers

The old warhorses of Europe return to their favourite competition knowing that it is 12 long years since they last got their hands on the trophy.  The Tigers have started the season solidly, but have endured a terrible injury list that has seen them shorn of such attacking talents as Tom Croft, Manu Tuilagi and Mathew Tait.  However, there's still enough power up front in the form of Dan Cole, Tom Youngs, Geoff Parling and Julian Salvi, whilst Toby Flood, Ben Youngs and Niki Goneva are all capable of creating something from nothing out wide.  Leicester's problem is that they rely so heavily on forward dominance that, when they don't get it, they panic – but the problem for other sides is how to stop that grizzled pack once it gets rumbling.

One to watch:  Ben Youngs.  The England and Lions scrum half has come back this season and not looked entirely fit, but there is still no questioning his importance to the team when on form.  So often the catalyst for the Tigers' attacks, Youngs needs to ensure he delivers Flood quick ball and doesn't panic when the pressure comes on.

Prediction:  1st (Quarter finals).  The Tigers may not look like the most vintage Leicester side we've seen, but they have a knack of winning at the right time and, with injured stars still to return, they should get stronger as the season goes on.  It will be tight, but with some fortune, Tigers should sneak top spot in a low scoring group – meaning they'll face a tricky away fixture.

 

Pool 6

Edinburgh

Oh dear.  From a heroic semi-final appearance 2 seasons ago, the Scottish side won none of their six pool games this year and sit bottom of the Pro 12 (creating a nice Scottish 'bookend' with Glasgow holding top spot).  How such a spectacular fall from grace has occurred, I don't know, but it's very hard to see Edinburgh providing much of a challenge for the top spot in the pool.  However, stranger things have happened (although I'm struggling to pick out specific examples) and with talent such as David Denton, Tim Visser and Greg Laidlaw in their ranks, you can never totally write them off.

One to watch:  Ross Rennie.  The Scottish flanker has been plagued by injuries but when he's fit he is an international-class ball stealer.  If he can stay 100% and get stuck into opposition ball, then Edinburgh might just spring a surprise or two.

Prediction: 4th.  Their form is terrible, simply put.  You also get the impression that morale is low, and that isn't helped by the uncertainty over their European income for next year.   It could be another long season in Europe for the Scottish side.

 
Gloucester

The cultured rugby critic all had their 'secret' tip for big things this year, and almost every one pointed at Gloucester.  Even the uncultured ones, such as myself, predicted strong domestic and European displays from the Cherry and Whites but, although it is early days, the results so far are ominous.  Tight wins against Northampton and Newcastle aside, Gloucester  have been leaking tries at an alarming rate and will be desperate to ensure that their return to European rugby does not reflect their domestic form.

One to watch:  Billy Twelvetrees.  The England man and Lions tourist has had a mixed season so far, putting in some sensational displays – notably against Northampton – and some less impressive ones, such as his last display against Exeter.  If he can find consistency he is a real leader for this backline and has the skillset to unleash the searing pace Gloucester have out wide.

Prediction:  2nd (Eliminated).  The Cherry and Whites will come good this season – I maintain that.  But a slow start could see their campaign derailed before they've really begun.  I can see them pushing for top spot in a group that lacks any title challengers but Munster should be just too strong.


Perpignan

The men from the Spanish border make a welcome return to Heineken Cup rugby after a brief absence, but it's hard to see them making the same waves as in their heyday when they were European finalists.  Despite that, they still uphold the proud Perpignan tradition of building a side around a powerful pack, where the likes of Luke Charteris, Luke Narraway and Danny Leo ensure that they usually enjoy set piece dominance.  They have looked solid in the Top 14 this season but, once again, have had their struggles away from home.

One to watch:  James Hook.  The talented and versatile Mr Hook is a key figure for Perpignan as he attempts to guide their forward-based game plan into the right areas of the pitch.  With a cultured boot to gain field position and keep the scoreboard moving, Hook will be relying on his more traditional fly-half skills to win games rather than his natural flair.

Prediction:  3rd.  The French outfit will be delighted to be back in the big time but I can't see them making too much of an impact away from their own back yard.

 

Munster

Munster came storming back into European recognition with a stunningly physical display against Harlequins and then an equally resilient fightback against Clermont to earn the respect of the rugby fraternity.  That proud European pedigree is still evident when watching the men in red and Thomond Park remains one of the best venues in rugby for passion, atmosphere, and a bloody good booze up.   Expectations are creeping up in this corner of Ireland as well after an impressive start to their Pro 12 season, where they sit in 2nd place.

One to watch:  Simon Zebo.  Need you ask?  Even if he does nothing else for the entirety of his career, 'that' heel flick has ensured that Zebo will always be expected to get the crowd on their feet.  He may not be the key cog of this Munster side, but he is pure box office and one the blokes who makes watching the Heineken Cup special.

Prediction:  1st (semi-finals).  Munster have one of the easier groups and look to be hitting form once again – it all points to a home quarter final, and who would bet against them with the Fields of Athenry ringing in the ears?
 

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