Rugby Championship Preview - South Africa v New Zealand

There comes moments in sport that define individuals, and none more so than in rugby.  Wilkinson's last gasp drop goal in 2003, Jonah Lomu's utter destruction of the English in 1995 and even Stephen Donald's nerve shredding penalty in 2011 – all of these moments have come to define these individuals and create memories that are replayed over and over and recreated by the next generation in the park.  There are fewer moments though, where an entire side comes together to make that moment, although there are of course a couple of examples – the French comeback against the Kiwis in 1999, and Leinster's second half in the 2011 Heineken Cup Final – but when it does happen, it generally creates instances of pure sporting theatre that end up etched into legend.

 

And at Ellis Park on Saturday – the ultimate stage for such sporting theatre – the Springboks will need to perform to their absolute best as individuals and as a team, in order to create a moment of sporting history.  Their form suggests that they do have it within them to achieve the almost-impossible – a bonus point win against the All Blacks, whilst keeping them more than 7 points away – but the visitors will be looking to spring a surprise of their own.  The All Blacks do not know how to just sit on a lead – despite not needing to win, this team has no other mode.
 

There's no denying that the stats are against the men in green:

 

·         New Zealand have played 38 Test matches since they last conceded four tries in a single game (against Australia in Hong Kong back in 2010).

 

·         New Zealand have only conceded seven tries in their eight games so far this year.

 

·         South Africa have not scored four tries against New Zealand in nine years.

 

·         New Zealand have won seven of their last eight games against South Africa.

 

But since when have the facts got in the way of a good bit of drama - especially one which is defined by the bone shattering physicality these two displayed when they last met.  With Richie McCaw returning to lead his side into the gauntlet, and South Africa being forced to play high-tempo attacking rugby, this is the game of the year.  The Championship is on the line.  The World Number One title is on the line.

 

Legends will be made.

 

 

South Africa Team News

There are two changes to the Springbok team that beat Australia by 28-8 in Cape Town last weekend, as well as one possible change.  Upfront, Bismarck du Plessis rotates with Adriaan Strauss at hooker, while Juandré Kruger comes in at lock for Flip van der Merwe. The uncapped Franco van der Merwe has been selected on the bench.  At the back, JJ Engelbrecht is bracketed at outside centre with Jan Serfontein, while Juan de Jongh will come onto the bench if needed.

Starting Line up: Zane Kirchner, Willie le Roux, JJ Engelbrecht/ Jan Serfontein, Jean de Villiers (capt), Bryan Habana, Morne Steyn, Fourie du Preez, Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Eben Eztebeth, Juandre Kruger, Francois Louw, Willem Alberts, Duane Vermeulen

Subs: Adriaan Strauss, Gurthro Steenkamp, Coenie Oosthuizen, Franco van der Merwe, Siya Kolisi, Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie, Jan Serfontein/ Juan de Jongh

 

Key Player

Jan Serfontein.  If he starts, the kid who was playing in the under 20 World Cup last year will be holding his own against the world record centre partnership of Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith.  Talk about getting thrown in at the deep end.  Luckily, Serfontein isn't exactly the 18-year-old, straight out of school Mathew Tait kind of young centre – for starters, he's grown up in South Africa and played two full seasons of Super Rugby, so he's hard as nails, and secondly, he's an absolute unit with biceps bigger than Jeremy Clarkson's face.  If he's to hold his own here, then he needs to strike the perfect balance between imposing himself physically and not letting his emotions carry him away.

 

 

All Blacks Team News

McCaw returns from injury to play in his 120th Test but first at Ellis Park.  There are two changes to the team that beat Argentina last week with tighthead prop Charlie Faumuina replacing the injured Owen Franks, who is sidelined with a groin injury.  Sam Cane drops to the bench at the expense of Jeremy Thrush.

Starting Line up:  Israel Dagg; Ben Smith, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea; Aaron Cruden, Aaron Smith; Tony Woodcock, Andrew Hore, Charlie Faumuina, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Liam Messam, Richie McCaw (capt), Kieran Read

Subs: Ben Franks, Dane Coles, Wyatt Crockett, Steven Luatua, Sam Cane, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Beauden Barrett, Charles Piutau

 

Key Player

Richie McCaw.  The legendary flanker returns to lead his side out in the most daunting of settings, and his leadership will be crucial for his side when it comes to bracing themselves against the storm of physicality which the opposition are bound to unleash.  Surprisingly, though, this is the first time 120-cap veteran will have played at Ellis Park, which must put the iconic stadium down as the last great conquest left for the Kiwi captain.  If there are any nerves left in that battered and bruised physique, they will be jangling – but it's his job to calm his side down when the temptation will be to go hell for leather and give the Springboks a taste of their own medicine.

 

 

Key Battle

Fourie Du Preez v Aaron Smith.  The wisened old master of scrum half play has been selected infront of Ruan Pienaar in what is a real show of faith by coach Heyneke Meyer.  He has impressed on his return with his fast service and even quicker decision making, but he will be up against the raw physical talent of Aaron Smith, a young man who has made that problem 9 jersey his own.  His pace around the breakdown sets him apart as a gamebreaker, but Du Preez has dealt with pretenders like him before and will be ever watchful of his moves.  In a game where packs will collide at break-neck speed, and the game will be played at real pace, the key battle will be between the two nines in terms of who can get to the breakdown the fastest and make the best decisions when they get there – both sets of backs will be hungry for possession.

 

Prediction

This has all the makings of a genuine classic.  This year the Springboks have really looked like they could seriously challenge the All Blacks' aura of invincibility, and they may well have come even closer in the last fixture between these two had Roman Poite not lost the plot.  The South Africans will be fired up for this one and, playing in front of the daunting atmosphere at the legendary Ellis Park, you can almost feel the energy bubbling up to something special already.  The All Blacks, though, are not World Champions and unbeaten in 2 seasons of the Rugby Championship for nothing.  They will not go in with a damage-limitation mentality to lose the game but secure the Championship – they will want to attack the hosts from the off, fighting fire with fire.  Whoever can sustain that energy for 80 minutes will be the victor, and I think that home advantage and pressure to win will spur the Springboks on to a triumph – even if it's not enough to take the Championship outright.  Springboks by 6.