Six Nations Preview - France v England

There are some things in life that you just can't rely on.  A bus or train being on time when you're in a rush to catch a plane, for example.  Or your other half recording the correct rugby match on the telly in your absence.  Or the French.  Yes, that's a gross generalisation and I'm diving into the stereotypes here – I'm sure the majority of the French people are both reliable and punctual – but they haven't helped themselves with a couple of high-profile incidents.  As the English clubs found out, don't rely on the French to follow through with their promise to back you in the creation of a new European club tournament.  Or, as I found out last year, don't confidently back the French for a Six Nations title.  It ends in spectacular embarrassment for all parties.

Yep, despite having the best team on paper, and leading me (and several others, to be fair) to proclaim Les Bleus as 'dead certs' for the title, the French managed to blunder their way to 3 defeats and a draw, spear-headed by bizarre team selections and an apparent can't-be-bothered attitude shown by some of their big-name players, such as Thierry Dusautoir.  They looked foolish, the pundits looked foolish, and nobody came out looking good.  Yet again, the old adage of never knowing which French side will show up came to the fore.  And things, didn't get any better for Les Bleus for the remainder on 2013 either, winning just 1 of their 6 Test matches.  And that was against international powerhouses, Tonga.

But delve a little deeper, and you'll see that things aren't as bad as they seem.  For starters, Phillippe Saint-Andre has stopped smoking whatever he was smoking and has started picking his best players in their best positions – Fofana in the centres instead of on the wing, and Huget at 14 instead of full-back for example.  He's also not selected Freddie Michelak, a man as solid as a damp piece of paper, and is instead playing a real fly-half – as in an actual fly half.  Jules Plisson is making his debut but certainly represents a lot of promise and a step in the right direction for this French side.  Their pack – and front row, in particular – looks formidable, even without Thierry Dusautoir, and is packed with powerful ball carriers.  The backline also looks nicely balanced, with the smooth-running and silky-skilled Wesley Fofana teaming up with the over-inflated space-hopper with an angry bulldog face (AKA Mathieu Bastareau) in the centres.  There are threats all over the place and, if the half-backs click, they could cause any side problems.  Oh, and those 5 defeats after the 6 Nations last year?  They were to New Zealand (4 times) and to South Africa (once).  How much you can read into them is anybody's guess.

Venturing into the unknown will be an England side featuring, well, a bunch of unknowns.  Jack Nowell, who has been earning rave reviews for his European performances with Exeter Chiefs and heavy criticism for his appalling haircut (which contains a rat's tail), makes his debut on the wing on the opposite flank to 'wise old head' Johnny May, the Gloucester speedster, who has one cap.  Luther Burrell, battering-ram extraordinaire for Northampton, steps into the Manu Tuilagi role at 13 as well, away from his preferred position at inside centre.  All 3 newbies are fine players, fully deserving of their opportunities, but cohesion between backlines does take time to develop, so fans shouldn't expect fireworks from the first minute.  Elsewhere, England look pretty settled, with competition for places at hooker and scrum half particularly intense.  Tom Youngs is probably the only man who may feel a little hard done by, given his form of late, but Dylan Hartley is himself in good nick and his lineout relationship with Lawes and Wood is the crucial factor.  Perhaps the only area many would take issue with is the subs bench – such a crucial part of any game these days.  The backline selections of Lee Dickson, Brad Barritt and Alex Goode are all conservative, safe picks, but Ben Youngs (who, despite not being the best form, is lethal against tired fringe defences), Kyle Eastmond and Anthony Watson all offer versatile cover and real inventiveness from the sidelines; it's a shame that they won't be able to have an impact this weekend.  But there's still good reason to hope – last year's Six Nations (the final game aside) and the Autumn Internationals showed the development of a pack with real strength in depth that can challenge the best sides in the world, and against France they will be going all out to pressurise the opposition 8 into mistakes, penalties for the reliable boot of Owen Farrell and retreating defence.  Paris is the chance for them to lay down their marker.

And who knows what will be waiting for them in Paris?  Will the French come out firing on all cylinders, living up to their spectacular potential?  Or will they get frogs legs once again?  If there's one thing we do know, though, it's that "Le Crunch" will be as physical and explosive as ever.  You can rely on that.

France Team News

Stade Francais fly-half Jules Plisson will make his France debut against England in Paris.  The 22-year-old will form an inexperienced half-back partnership with Toulouse's Jean-Marc Doussain.  Stade Francais lock Pascal Pape will captain Les Bleus in the absence of the injured flanker Thierry Dusautoir.  Bernard Le Roux replaces Dusautoir in the back row, while Mathieu Bastareaud has been selected at centre.

Starting Line up:  B Dulin (Castres); Y Huget (Toulouse), M Bastareaud (Toulon), W Fofana (Clermont Auvergne), M Medard (Toulouse); J Plisson (Stade Francais), J-M Doussain (Toulouse); T Domingo (Clermont Auvergne), B Kayser (Clermont Auvergne), N Mas (Montpellier), A Flanquart (Stade Francais), P Pape (Stade Francais, capt), Y Nyanga (Toulouse), B Le Roux (Racing Metro), L Picamoles (Toulouse).

Subs: D Szarzewski (RacingMetro), Y Forestier (Castres), R Slimani (Stade Francais), Y Maestri (Toulouse), A Burban (Stade Francais), D Chouly (Clermont Auvergne), M Machenaud (Racing Metro), G Fickou (Toulouse).

Key Player

Jules Plisson.  The Stade Francais man is one of those rare breeds of French 10s – a fly half, pure and simple, and not a scrum half who occasionally swaps the numbers on his back.  Traditionally Saint-Andre has been wary of the simplicity of this approach, inexplicably ignoring the likes of Trinh-Duc last year, but Plisson has shown plenty of guile and exceptional game-management during his season for Stade.  He is still young, however, and how he deals with the pressure of the England pack targeting his channel will be a real challenge for the youngster.  If he holds it together, and doesn't let the likes of Vunipola and Lawes rattle him (easier said than done), then the superior French backline should get some decent-ball – and that spells bad news for England.

England Team News

There are four changes in all from the side that lost 30-22 to New Zealand at Twickenham in November. Exeter wing Jack Nowell and Northampton centre Luther Burrell will make their England debuts in Paris, whilst Gloucester winger Jonny May will win his second cap, while Harlequins scrum-half Danny Care has been recalled.   Fellow Harlequin Joe Marler retains his place at loose-head prop ahead of Saracens' Mako Vunipola.

Starting Line up:  Mike Brown, Jack Nowell, Luther Burrell, Billy Twelvetrees, Jonny May, Owen Farrell, Danny Care; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (captain), Billy Vunipola

Subs: Tom Youngs, Mako Vunipola, Henry Thomas, Dave Attwood, Ben Morgan, Lee Dickson, Brad Barritt, Alex Goode

Key Player

Chris Robshaw.  Man of the match last time round (in fact, man of the match of most of the games he plays), England will be looking to their captain to lead by example once more.  The absence of Dussautoir provides a potential opening to dominate the breakdown – and with Robshaw's workrate and physicality, the visitors will be hoping that they can be first to all the key tackles situations, especially later on in the game.  The England skipper will also be acutely aware that the French half-backs have had little more than a coffee and a croissant to get to know each other, and some well-applied pressure here (with the help of the Courtney Lawes missile-service, no doubt) could see the French backline shut down at source.

 

Key Battle

Thomas Domingo v Dan Cole.  The French loosehead is a mathematically perfect square on legs, weighing a hefty 17-and-a-half stone and measuring an oompa-loompa-ish 5 foot 8.  These physical attributes might not see him as a big game player on the dating circuit, but it certainly does the business in the front row.  Compact and powerful, Domingo is a bowling ball on the carry and devilishly tricky to deal with in the set piece.  England man, Cole, is a comparatively-towering 6 foot 3 and is renowned as being one of the best scrummagers in Europe – see his utter destruction of Andrew Sheridan in Europe last year.  But if Cole has one Achilles heel, it is propping against the shorter man.  His two nemesis are Paul James and Domingo, squat props who can get underneath Cole and drive into the hooker – England's tighthead will have to pull out all the stops to prevent this from happening.  If the French get set piece dominance, it's a very hard position to fight from.

 

Prediction

Ah, who knows.  England go into this game off the back of a decent, if not entirely inspiring, Autumn series, but injuries to critical players, especially in the backline, has left the side as a bit of an unknown quantity.  The pack though, is pretty much the same as the one that impressed in November, and they will realise that this is a huge test of their ambition to be one of the dominant sets of forwards in world rugby.  For the French, their recent results against the top 2 teams make it impossible to figure out how they'll fare this year, but with the quality they have oozing through their side it's impossible to imagine them being as bad as last year.  Phillippe Saint-Andre has stopped picking Freddie Michalak, which is a start, but their half backs are inexperienced and they lack an internationally-recognised kicker.  That said, I can see some magic out wide from Les Blues snatching a very narrow win against a scratch England backline, especially in the men in white's pack can't get the upper hand in the loose.  France by 2.

Let's see what's happening in this weekend's other games:

Wales v Italy:  Wales go into this one as red hot favourites, despite a mixed Autumn campaign, and rightfully so.  George North is on fire at the moment and the Italians showed very little in their own November series to suggest that they will be able to threaten teams out wide this tournament.  As usual it will be a tough game up front, but I'm expecting the hosts to pull away with their superior firepower in the backs.  Wales to win by 19.

Ireland v Scotland:  Ireland sowed the seeds of promise when they went down by 2 points to the All Blacks, but this is their chance to build.  Scotland have looked improved under Scott Johnson but have an atrocious away record and, despite some of their best players looking over the hill, Ireland should win relatively comfortably.  Ireland by 9.

RuckedOver's Six Nations Preview

The Captains of the Six Nations look forward to weekends with the family

Another year, another 6 Nations. 

It seems these days there are very few certainties in life, especially in the current wobbly economic climate.  Will I be able to one day afford a house?  Do bankers really know more about my money than I do?  Did anyone actually watch that diving show with Tom Daley?  Thankfully, the 6 nations is one of the few things we can rely on.  It’s 2 months of edge of your seat drama, first class rugby and many beers shared over friendly rivalries. Or at least, that is the version proclaimed by the BBC in their cringe-inducing pre-tournament advertisements.  All nationalities in one room watching the game?  Check.  At least one ethnic minority? Check.  It goes on.

 

To be fair, the first two points resonate as partly true, in that we are sure to be treated to moments of nerve shredding tension and the odd flash of unadulterated brilliance, but the fact is we will also be fed offensive amounts of turgid kick-tennis and mud wrestling as occasionally demanded by the bizarrely temperamental European weather.   And the friendly rivalries?  Come on. Try telling the Scots, Welsh, or anyone else for that matter that the matches against the English are not borderline life or death situations, with the honour of both nations hanging on the result.   I’m not saying there will be punch ups – but let’s face it, nothing is more satisfying than getting one over on your neighbours and earning the right to gloat about it for another year.  This is tribal passion at its best. And the best thing is: it happens every year.  And in the current climate that’s one certainty we can be grateful for.

 So, without further ado, let’s take a peek each side’s chances:

Wales

Coach: Warren Gatland

Captain: Sam Warburton

Last Season: 1^st

Strengths: The fact that their backline appear to be descended from a family of bulldozers.  Leigh Halfpenny aside – who looks like Bilbo Baggins next to his teammates – the centres and wingers encapsulate what this Welsh side are all about...power.  It’s no secret that Gatland likes a direct, physical approach, and who can blame him when he has 2 six-foot-five wingers at his disposal and Jamie Roberts and Scott Williams ‘prancing’ about in the centres.  Combined with a solid set piece and an intelligent back row, the Welsh juggernaut can be hard to stop when it gets going.

Weaknesses: They’re pretty strong all over park, but if you were going to pick one potentially weak link, it’s at half-back.  Mike Phillips is a very decent player when he’s not pre-occupied with pulling silly faces at his opposite number, but for me he’s been living off his 2009 form for too long.  His appalling box-kicking was one of the chief reasons Wales lost to Australia in the autumn, and with some pretty dangerous back 3s lurking around in this year’s championship, he has to make sure he’s on the money now.  His partner, Rhys Priestland, is another talented individual but is known for being flakier than an over-baked croissant.

What’s the deal?:  I can’t make up my mind about this Welsh team.  8 consecutive losses, then an outstanding Championship victory last year – it’s all a bit confusing for us simple types.  There’s also a nagging doubt that, as shown by an average Australian outfit 3 months ago, that they struggle to put teams away in a tight contest when the pressure’s on.  All that said, though, they have one thing plenty of other sides would kill for – consistency in selection.  You could name the first choice Welsh side to a man, and playing together breeds confidence – which should be a worry for other sides.  With George North rampaging around out-wide and last year’s player of the tournament Leigh Halfpenny punishing any indiscretion within 50 metres of the sticks, the last thing sides want to see is a streak of confidence flowing through them.

Watch out for: Scott Williams.  The Scarlets centre will be filling the boots of his outstanding clubmate Jonathan Davies this spring, and those are some pretty big shoes to fill.  But Williams shouldn’t be daunted – at nearly 16 stone and with explosive acceleration he’ll fit right into the Welsh backline.  Thankfully, we won’t be completely without a Jonathan Davies this Championship – listen out for his namesake commentating for the BBC.  You’ll know when he’s commentating because he’ll reach a pitch only dogs can hear and you’ll have a sudden an uncontrollable urge to put your fist through the screen. 

Prediction: 2nd.  This Welsh side are looking confident and are stuffed full of world-class operators and leaders, such as Sam Warburton and Alun Wyn Jones.  Their fixture list gives them the chance to build momentum early, but I can see them slipping up at Twickenham and falling agonisingly short of a record third consecutive Championship win.

 

England

Coach: Stuart Lancaster

Captain: Chris Robshaw

Last Season: 2nd

Strength: Mobility.  In a nice break from the tradition of the last decade, England don’t have a pack that resembles the size (and occasionally flexibility and fitness) of a weight-watchers group on a trip to Skegness.  England’s pack is full of athletes who work exceptionally hard at the breakdown and pride themselves of beating their opposite numbers to each contest.  That’s not to say they lack grunt though – in fact, with Courtney Lawes and Billy Vunipola pottering about, you can be sure of a few hefty collisions when the England pack comes to the party. With a decent set piece as well, England’s pack is finally looking like one to take on the world’s best.

Weaknesses: The backline.  Ah, back to tradition we go then.  To be fair, the backs are less of a weakness and more of an unknown quantity.  With Manu Tuilagi – England’s main attacking weapon – along with Christian Wade and Marland Yarde injured, and who were all guaranteed to start despite they themselves being inexperienced, the England coaching team has had to look elsewhere and/or improvise.  Will it work?  Who knows, but it’s an area other sides are looking to target.  Injuries have also robbed Stuart Lancaster of a trio of Lions in the forwards, with Alex Corbisiero, Geoff Parling and Tom Croft all sitting out.

What’s the deal?:  As usual, it’s a mixed bag for England that often shows a lot of promise but not always a lot of execution.  A solid Six Nations campaign was joyously derailed by the Welsh in Cardiff, but that spectacular failure didn’t translate into spectacular performances in the Autumn, where their best performance ironically came in their only defeat, against the All Blacks.  A large part of that is, to be fair, down to injury, where they have been hit harder by any other side – losing 5 Lions players.  But, despite the backline showing all the cohesion of a skyscraper held together by prit-stick, the pack is rapidly becoming a real force in the loose and in the set piece.  That alone should be enough to drag them through some tight games, but England fans will be desperate to see some spark out wide this Championship.

Watch out for: Jack Nowell.  Appearing out of nowhere, the young Exeter winger has taken the Premiership by storm and is favourite to take a starting place for England.  Quick, and built like barrel on legs with calf muscles the size of my chest, the youngster has all the assets to make a big impression over the next few weeks. Unfortunately, he’s ruined all of his good work in the build up maintaining a rat’s tail on his noggin.  You’re not a Jedi, Jack, nobody is.  I found that out the hard way.

Prediction: 3rd.  Despite the disappointing finish, I think England will only lose one this tournament – that being against France in Paris, first up.  With the likes of Tuilagi and Yarde potentially returning and healthy competition in key places, I suspect the men in white will get stronger as the championship progresses.

 

Scotland

Coach: Scott Johnson.  The world’s longest serving “interim” coach.

Captain: Kelly Brown

Last Season: 3^rd.

Strength: Aggression.  The Scots can stir up that Celtic passion like no other, and when they are in the mood it is incredibly difficult to get quick ball against them – that is if you can get the ball off them in the first place.  With giants such as the world’s largest boyband member, Richie Gray, and cave-troll Jim Hamilton, in their ranks, the Scots can dominate the contact area when appropriately fired up.  Add in big ball carriers such as Dave Denton and canny operators like Kelly Brown, and you understand why gaining possession and grabbing the hard yards is not the problem for this Scottish side.

Weaknesses: Centres.  The Scots have some serious pace and guile out wide for the first time in memory, with Maitland and Hogg capable of scoring tries galore even without the flying Dutchman, Tim Visser, but whether or not they receive quality ball is another matter.  Duncan Taylor and Alex Dunbar are good, solid players but are they international class?  They don’t offer enough of a threat with the ball in hand, making it easy for opposition defences to drift quickly and cut down the danger men.

What’s the deal?:  I feel sorry for Scotland.  They actually had a very decent Six Nations last time out, finishing 3^rd, but nobody seemed to notice.  They turned over Italy and Ireland with some powerful performances but everybody was too enamoured with the Welsh dismantling of England to give it any attention. The key goal for the Scots is to somehow turn all the possession they get into points – so, often they dominate this statistic, and yet they end up on the losing side.  It’s a cross between failing to play the game in the right areas of the pitch and not having the quality of personnel in the 10, 12, 13 channel make the most of it.  Will this be the year that all changes, though?

Watch out for: Duncan Weir.  The fly-half is a bizarre looking creature, with no neck and a little pot-belly, but he is a very shrewd operator.  A great kicker of the ball, he also has a low centre of gravity that allows him to scoot around and, occasionally, under heavy traffic – he’s certainly not afraid to mix it with the big boys.  Scotland is crying out for a man to take the 10 shirt that has held legends such as Chalmers and Townsend – this is Weir’s chance.

Prediction: 5^th.  They’ll be a tough nut to crack for any side, but I don’t think they’ve got enough class to turnover the likes of Wales, England or France.  They will fancy their chances at home, though, and I expect them to win in Italy as well.

 

Italy

Coach: Jacques Brunel

Captain: Sergio Parisse

Last Season: 4th

Strength: The pack.  The Italians are always competitive up front and can cause any side a problem in the set piece.  Gladiators such as Martin Castrogiovanni and the sublime Sergio Parisse are players who can dominate proceedings if they are given the platform to get into the game.  A solid set piece and accuracy at the breakdown from the rest of the pack will mean that these two figures can start to dominate the fringes.

Weaknesses: Decision making.  It’s easy to point the finger at the Italian backline and say that they’re not doing a good enough job behind a powerful Italian pack, but the truth is that the Azzurri, as a whole, do not create enough opportunities with the possession they have and, on the off chance that one is created, they fail to take advantage of it.  This is often due to poor decisions – taking the ball into contact around the fringes again, or slowing the ball down.  If they can up their tempo and learn to communicate when opportunity arises, they have real potential to cause more than a couple of upsets.

What’s the deal?:  Italy are another side who seem to specialise in confusing the discerning rugby viewer.  After an impressive Six Nations, where they recorded superb wins over France and Ireland, as well as pushing England all the way at Twickenham, the Azzurri duly bent over and took an absolute spanking from South Africa and Samoa over the summer (as well as a narrow loss to Scotland).  Their Autumn form was poor as well, managing just one narrow win against Fiji, sandwiched by 2 convincing defeats to Australia and Argentina.  Aside from Sergio Parisse, it is difficult to see where the brains to unlock defences lies within the Italian side.  They will be ferocious defenders but, until the next Diego Dominguez takes the helm, they will be continually stuck with that patronising tag that the rest of us slap on them every year – “try-hards”.  Trying hard shouldn’t be enough for Italy now.

Watch out for: Luciano Orquera.  Bizarrely, the Fawlty Towers Manuel look-a-like became a cult hero last year, tearing up defences with some virtuoso displays that nobody expected (and probably not even Orquera himself).  At 32, he’s no spring chicken, but if he can command the same authority and inventiveness as he did against France last year, then he could make a big claim for being the Italian 10 at the next world cup.

Prediction: 6^th.  They will fancy their chances in Rome against Scotland and England – and rightly so – but I’m not sure if they have the personnel to execute the opportunities they create.

 

Ireland

Coach: Joe Schmidt

Captain: Paul O’Connell

Last Season: 5th

Strength: Defence.  The Irish are the stubborn and frenzied defenders, especially when roared on by a partisan Dublin crowd, and are the masters of the ‘choke’ tackle – holding attackers up off the ground in order to win turnover ball off the referee.  With brutes such as Cian Healy and Paul O’Connell lurking in the depths of their pack, and the old pro O’Driscoll marshalling the backline, attacking sides will have to make sure their runners are well supported.

Weaknesses:  Age.  Again, it’s harsh to put this down as a weakness, but there’s no denying that the spine of this Irish side are getting on a bit.  Guys like Rory Best, O’Driscoll, O’Connell and Gordon D’Arcy have all been fixtures of the Irish side for years, but there is a fine line between being in your prime and being past it.  They’ll still be extremely competitive and physical, but what the Irish desperately need now is for the next group of leaders to really stand up and be counted – Jamie Heaslip was virtually anonymous in his captaincy role last year.

What’s the deal?: An appalling campaign last season, yielding just one win – on the opening weekend against Wales – sounded the death knell for the under-fire Declan Kidney (not literally, he’s still alive), and since then Joe Schmidt has tried to rebuild in a short amount of time.  An outstanding first half display against the All Blacks is enough to justify optimism amongst Irish supporters, but the cold reality of their Autumn Series was that they just didn’t build enough momentum to threaten teams consistently.  If they get their intensity levels right and cut out the silly penalties, they have the ball-carriers to dominate the gain-line battle against pretty much anyone - although the loss of Sean O'Brien is a real blow.

Watch out for: Luke Fitzgerald.  Alright, alright, he’s not a new face, but it feels like a new player after a loss of form and injuries have kept him out for so long.  Despite looking like a lost member of Westlife, the compact winger is incredibly physical and combines that with an explosive turn of pace and some wonderfully balanced running – he’s been in scorching form for Leinster this year.  Ireland will want to get him the ball as much as possible.

Prediction: 4^th.  A slight improvement on last year, but Schmidt will need more time to “bed-in” his ideas, and trips to London and Paris will prove a step too far.  Sean O'Brien's injury deprives them of one of their chief ball-carrying threats, too.


France

Coach: Philippe Saint-Andre

Captain: Pascal Pape

Last Season: 6th

Strength: Balance.  The French look to have a fantastically balanced side this season, with some serious grunt in the pack and backs alike in the form of Louis Picamoles and a resurgent Mathieu Bastareaud, whilst Wesley Fofana and Huget provide the twinkle-toes out wide.  Their scrum in probably the best in the Championship as well, with Thomas Domingo and Nicolas Mas two of the best technical scrummagers around.  To be honest, looking down the team sheet, you end up gob-smacked that they don’t win every game they play by 20 points.

Weaknesses: They’re French.  Which France will show up?  Yes, it’s a lazy and overused comment to make, but scientists could discover how to open up a wormhole in space in less time than it would take to find out why the French are so flaky.  If things don’t go their way early on, then they tend to just give up and look as if they wish they were back in bed, no doubt eating cheese, drinking wine, and smelling of garlic. 

What’s the deal?: France won just two matches last year, in keeping with their pathetic display in the Six Nations, winning only against Scotland and Tonga.  Now that sounds bad, and it is, but their last 5 defeats have come against the All Blacks (four times) and South Africa.  Not many sides could brag to having beaten them lately.  It means that France are even more of an unknown quantity than usual this year, but they should be feeling optimistic given that a new agreement with the French clubs has allowed a full 2 weeks of preparation prior to the England game – something previously unheard of.  On their day, the French are occasional practitioners of ‘Total Rugby’; they just need to start well and hope that Phillipe Saint Andre has taken his brain medicine that morning and has decided to play players in their best positions.

Watch out for: Gael Fickou.  The youngster from Toulouse looks like the real deal, but he’ll be struggling to get game time with Fofana and Bastareau the preferred combination (I was going to say watch out for Mathieu Bastareau, but it’s quite hard to miss someone who resembles a very angry space hopper).  If he does get on the pitch, his markers will have to ensure he doesn’t get the space to showcase an electric outside break and his dancing feet.  That's provided Saint-Andre doesn't play him at prop, of course.

Prediction: 1st. (No Grand Slam).  Sure, last to first in one season, why not?  I think the England game first up will be of huge importance – a win at home, which they should expect, could propel them onto big things.  The Millennium Stadium will be too big a task to conquer but, other than that, I expect big – or at least better – things from Les Bleus this spring.  And of course, it's a post-Lions year, which the French have won on the last 3 occasions...


Who do you think is odds on for the title this year?

 

 

 

Pick n' Mix - RuckedOver's England XV for the Six Nations

The Six Nations.  It’s like Christmas time for European rugby fans, only the sense of optimism and excitement is tinged with a foreboding sense of dread and potential despondency.  A bit like asking for the official Thunderbirds Tracey Island toy, but suspecting that your parents (bless them) are attempting the Blue Peter version toilet-roll-and-sticky-back-plastic version.

Perhaps no other country gets that odd mix of expectations more than England, and with good reason too.  A win ratio of 2 from 3 in the autumn doesn’t sound that bad, but when you consider that England’s best display was in their defeat to the All Blacks, it was really a rather mixed bag.  Add in the fact that injuries have shorn them of no fewer than 4 Lions Test players – and their main attacking threat in the backline – then you begin to realise that there is a real unknown quantity about England at the moment.  Picking a side is proving to be even more tricky than usual – especially out wide – but nonetheless, RuckedOver gives it a stab...

 

 

Front Row

 

England's area of real strength is predictably depleted once again by the absence of poor Alex Corbisiero, the Northampton loosehead who was so crucial to the Lions' victory in Australia last summer.  Somebody buy that man a new set of knees, honestly (I would offer my own, but they're not in much better shape). 

 

However, despite the absence of the part-time gangster rapper, there are blokes who can fill in admirably.  Mako Vunipola is a Lions Test prop as well and is a thunderous presence in the loose, whilst Joe Marler is no shrinking violet either and is enjoying an outstanding season with Harlequins and – most importantly – has settled on a haircut that doesn't make him look like a cross between a nightclub doorman from Scunthorpe and an imbecilic clown.  For me, the Harlequins man gets the nod – not just for his sensible barnet, but also for his form this year and his much improved work at scrum-time.  Plus, the sight of big Mako Vunipola coming off the bench after 60 minutes (the return of the Mak, if you will) is enough to worry any opposition.

 

It is perhaps at hooker, though, where I think one of the most exciting battles for a starting shirt is taking place.  Perhaps that reflects poorly on what I define as 'exciting', but Dylan Hartley and Tom Youngs have been pushing each other to new heights this season.  Youngs lost his place after an indifferent Autumn series, but – given the fact he became a father slap bang in the middle of it – it's understandable if his head wasn't quite 100% focussed.  That said, Hartley took his opportunity extremely well, and his ferocity in the loose, his leadership and his relation with fellow 'key cogs' in Tom Wood and Courtney Lawes at lineout time mean that he should get the nod.  I happen to think that Youngs is the better hooker though – and with Leicester man leading a lineout with the best success rate in the country (91%), it would suggest that his throwing-in is not as weak as many would make out.  His work-rate and physicality around the park borders somewhere between impressive and psychotic, but it will be up to the geometrically-perfect square-on-legs to earn his place back with displays from the bench this Spring.  The back-up, namely Rob Webber and the increasingly impressive Dave Ward, have a fair way to go before they catch up with Youngs and Hartley in my opinion.  The good news all round, though, is that these two look to battle each other all the way up to the World Cup for a starting spot – and beyond…

 

The battle for tighthead is, unfortunately, about as exciting as the shirt's current incumbent.  Dan Cole is quiet, understated, but devastatingly effective – and one of the first names down on the team sheet.  After an initial 'bedding in' period with the new scrummaging laws, Cole has re-established himself as one of the best set-piece operators in Europe and still offers a real threat at the breakdown, too.  Worryingly, for the men in white, his back up – the dynamic Dave Wilson – is out injured, meaning that should Victor Mildrew's massive cousin go down injured, the highly promising but inexperienced Henry Thomas is in line for a baptism of fire.  He can expect a bench spot this tournament.

 

 

Second Row

 

On to the gangly gang, and an injury to another Lion and stand-out England performer in Geoff Parling has proven to be a blessing in disguise.  Courtney Lawes has jumped (literally) at the chance to lead the lineout with his old mucker, Dylan Hartley, and is finally fulfilling that potential we all knew he had.  He's mastered that terrifying aggression with an intelligence of knowing 'where the line is' – with that 'line' being a fly-half's rib-cage just as they pass the ball – meaning that he's no longer the liability he once was.

 

Packing down next to him will surely be the cherub-faced Joe Launchbury.  Despite having a toddlers face on Martin Johnson's body, the young lock is tremendously physical and mobile around the park and looks like being a fixture in the England pack for years to come.  Backing this pair up in the Six Nations squad is Bath's Dave Attwood and Leicester's Ed Slater.  Both are big, nasty, aggressive units who won't be phased by physical opposition – for me, I'd give Slater the nod for the bench spot given the fact he's slightly more mobile than Attwood. 

 

And all this is to ignore the plethora of emerging talent England have in the engine-room of the pack – guys like George Kruis and Graham Kitchener are pushing very hard indeed for a spot in the senior set-up.  The future looks very bright indeed for England's man-mountains.

 

 

Back Row

 

Now this is odd.  Usually the position of fiercest debate, the loose-trio now has a rather 'settled' look about it for the first time in years.  Yes, that's helped by the fact that yet another Test Lion, Tom Croft, is out with a knee injury, but even if he was fit you do wonder if his inclusion would upset the balance that England currently seem to have.

First up, at blindside, is Tom Wood.  He likes to claim he's a 7 – as almost all English flankers seem to do – but he's a top rate blindside, getting through a mountain of dirty work that often isn't noticed.  For so long, people used to claim he was the new 'Richard Hill', but it is only in the last year he has truly lived up to that mantle.  That said, he still possesses a scavenger instinct over the ball at rucktime, so perhaps there is more of the openside in him than I give him credit for.  With Croft out, Tom Johnson is the man with an eye on the 6 shirt but, despite being a worthy competitor, I don't see him stepping up to top international standards consistently.

 

One of the reasons Wood won't be able to get his hands on the 7 shirt is the presence of Chris Robshaw, the captain.  If you are one of the people who spout the lazy argument that "he's not a 7", get out now.  We're all very bored of it.  Last season Robshaw averaged 1.9 turnovers per game for England, a fraction shy of Richie McCaw's 2.1.  However, Robshaw carried more, made more tackles and more offloads.  What more can he do?  The guy's work-rate is out of this world, and the fact that we go into the Six Nations with no moaning about his suitability as a seven or as a captain for once, should be a moment of sweet victory for the Harlequins man.  And with Matt Kvesic not kicking on as he would like to at struggling Gloucester, Robshaw looks set to play another leading role for his country.  Oh, and my girlfriend is telling me to also point out that he's 'hot'.  Because that's very important too, apparently.

 

Packing down at the back of the scrum will be Billy Vunipola, the Saracens behemoth who has been a key force in a side that has been sweeping all before them on the domestic front this season.  He still has a tendency to drift in and out of games and have the occasional sulk, but with Robshaw and Wood taking care of all the gritty work, the big man can concentrate on hitting big lines off the half backs' shoulders.  He'll get that 8 shirt ahead of Big Ben Morgan, who has had a frustrating time behind a Gloucester front 5 who spend most of the time on their arses.  I think that Morgan has the better attitude and rugby-brain, but he'll have to make the most of his impacts off the bench if he's to win back a starting spot.

 

 

Half Backs

 

A real headache, this one, and not just from the amount of yapping your 9s tend to do.  The accepted trio seem to be Danny Care, Lee Dickson and Ben Youngs, but don't discount Richard Wigglesworth either, who is having an intelligent and consistent season at Saracens.  But the position at 9 seems to be one of real frustration, with all 3 main incumbents having runs in the shirt – promptly followed by a loss in form – and I think now is the time for Lancaster to nail his colours to the mast and say which duo he thinks will be his leading pair in 2015.  For me, it has to be Youngs and Care.  Youngs has the complete game, and on his day can be sublime, but his form is sketchy at the current time, whilst Care offers a real threat around the fringes and the ability to create holes for his back row.  He's also in very decent nick at the moment, and so gets the starting spot ahead of Youngs at the moment.  It's extremely harsh on Dickson, who is always reliable, but I don't think he has the attributes of an international scrum-half and his last display, against New Zealand, which was riddled with errors, shows that even he is not immune to the odd howler.

 

At fly-half, you can bet your mortgage (if you are lucky enough to have one, as opposed to paying nose-bleedingly bad rental rates) on Owen Farrell taking the 10 shirt.  Yes, I think 'daddy' has been somewhat helpful in allowing Farrell Junior to have an extended run in the shirt, but since the removal of Toulouse-bound Toby Flood from the squad, he becomes the only real choice with Freddie Burns struggling to find form and George Ford, Flood's replacement, only just out of nappies (allegedly). 

 

Despite popular opinion, Farrell is a very decent fly-half, as he has shown for Saracens, and is an expert at accumulating points.  But he needs others, rather than himself, to create the gaps and go through them, which is why his game needs to be focussed on standing flat to the line, keeping straight, and distributing swiftly.  Leave the magic to your 9 and those outside you.  Warming the bench, I expect to see young Ford making the odd cameo.  The lad has talent flowing through his veins and it wouldn't be surprising to see him take that 10 shirt ahead of 2015, if he keeps improving at the current rate.

 

 

Centres

 

Now officially the most tedious debate since the "who killed JFK" incident.  Except we're probably closer to solving that latter than we are to picking two centres to provide both creativity and running threat in equal measure – at least, we are until a certain Samoan-born individual returns from injury. 

 

That 12 shirt, which has for so long been the bane of the English game, now has a small army of potential suitors.  Leading the way is Billy Twelvetrees, who is one of the few bright lights in a disappointing Gloucester side, and is a man who showed tremendous backbone to bounce back from a howler against Australia in the Autumn to weigh in with two impressive displays against Argentina and New Zealand.  With Farrell at 10, having a second receiver is utterly crucial and Twelvetrees can count himself as favourite to start against France, where he will look to demonstrate his running threat and leadership skills as well.  Behind him, the choices are varying and intriguing – the returning Brad Barritt is a defensive powerhouse with limited ability going forward, Kyle Eastmond lacks size but is a crack-a-jack with the ball in hand, whilst Luther Burrell is direct and in form but is an unproven entity at this level.

 

The 13 shirt, however, is completely empty – thanks to a pectoral injury to Manu Tuilagi – and very difficult to fill.  Following Tuilagi into the 13 shirt is a bit like following Ron Jeremy into an orgy; there's a very decent chance you'll feel inadequate.  And it's made all the more difficult in that the 2 obvious replacements – Henry Trinder and Jonathan Joseph – are both crocked, meaning Lancaster will be forced to pick a 12 to play out of position.  I suspect he is likely to pick Luther Burrell, who offers a similar direct-threat to Tuilagi, but he'll also be aware that Barritt has plenty of experience at outside-centre too.  I'd pick Eastmond though, on the basis that he offers something completely different to Tuilagi, and having a variety of threatening options is key for any side.  Manu may well be back for the last 2 games of the season, but whoever steps into his spot will have a chance to really lay down a marker for future games.

 

 

Back Three

 

Nothing currently fills an English fan with soul-crushing disappointment like the knowledge that two of the most talented prospects in the game, Christian Wade and Marlande Yarde, are injured for this year's Six Nations.  On the same subject, nothing fills a fan with dread like the sight of Chris 'Turnstiles' Ashton trotting out to take his place on the right wing.  But, with the injuries England have, I suspect that is a sight fans will have to get used to.

 

There is going to be a new face on the left wing though, for certain.  A lot of noises are being made about Jack Nowell, the young Exeter powerhouse, taking a spot on the left wing, and I wouldn't be surprised (or disappointed) to see that happen, but I've long been a fan of Johnny May and think he's looked very sharp this season, despite having limited opportunities.  He's got serious pace to burn and a fantastic step on him and, despite the fact he occasionally looks like a headless chicken, can be lethal in open space.

 

On the right, then, it looks like Ashton will retain his spot.  But I wouldn't have him, despite having an inexperienced bloke on the left.  I've long been a fan of the cocky winger, and have defended him previously, but he's ran out of chances now.  He was poor in the autumn, despite looking sharp for Sarries, and there's no reason to think he's suddenly going to bring back his form of 3 years ago either.  I'd plump for Anthony Watson, the Bath full-back-cum-wing, who provides safety under the high-ball – a favourite trait of Lancaster's – as well as a gorgeously balanced and explosive style of running.  For me, the risk of playing Ashton now outweighs the risks of playing a debutant, but I'd still be surprised to see him out of the squad all together.

 

Full back is, of course, a welcome breath of fresh air, in that Mike Brown is streets ahead of the competition.  Brown was one England's best performers over the Autumn and, despite looking like he'd kick you in the crotch and nab your wallet given half a chance, he's a superb presence at the back with that uncanny ability to always been the first defender.  With Ben Foden and a resurgent Mathew Tait injured, Alex Goode is the only main competition for the Harlequins man.  Despite an impressive run of form for Sarries, Goode has too much ground to make up and, for me, is a long shot to make the squad.

 

RuckedOver's England XV:  Marler, Hartley, Cole; Launchbury, Lawes; Wood, Robshaw (c), B Vunipola; Care, Farrell; May, Twelvetrees, Eastmond, Watson, Brown.

 

Subs:  T Youngs, M Vunipola, Thomas, Slater, Morgan, B Youngs, Ford, Ashton

 

Heineken Cup Review - Leicester Tigers 19 - 22 Ulster

Big games are won by small margins.  I don't know if anyone has coined that phrase before – and I'm sure they have (it seems like the kind of thing Will Greenwood would say with a smug look on his face) – but if they haven't, it's mine.  But it seems to ring true – some of the biggest games seem to come down the smallest isolated incident, whether that be a slip (as per Kurtley Beale in the 1st Lions Test last year), a dodgy linesman call (see Mike Brown's foot in touch against Australia) or a David-Campese cock-up special (Lions 3rd Test, 1989).  They all seem to involve the Australians for some reason.  But this (probably made-up) phrase was going through my head as Leicester prepared to take on Ulster for the right to play a home quarter final.

With Welford Road providing a cauldron of crackling energy on a cold, clear East Midlands night, there was a feeling that we would be in for a nerve-shreddingly tight encounter.  And it was clear, from the opening kick-off, that that was exactly what we would get.It was the hosts who, with the best part of 24,000 roaring them on, who had the early possession, hitting up the phases well through Tom Youngs and Graham Kitchener, before a knock on stopped their momentum.  The scrum, though, was an area which the Tigers had targeted before the game, and Marcos Ayerza and Dan Cole managed to get the nudge on John Afoa and Callum Black to force the penalty.  Toby Flood converted, and Leicester had an early lead. 

Fullback Mathew Tait, making a promising comeback from injury, then made a two telling contributions to extend the Tigers' lead – firstly, taking a perfectly-placed up-and-under from Ulster fly half Paddy Jackson under pressure from the rather large Nick Williams, before making a darting break in attack to put the men in black on the front foot.  Jordan Crane continued the attack and, when the visitors were penalised for not rolling, Flood stepped up and nudged over another 3 points.

Ulster, though, have built a reputation for being men of steel – never shaken, and ruthlessly pragmatic.  After Ed Slater had infringed at a ruck, Ruan Pienaar – who had been quiet in the opening exchanges – smashed a superb touch finder in close to the Tigers line.  Slater infringed again at the maul, receiving a ticking off from Nigel Owens in the process and allowing Pienaar to kick a tricky penalty out wide, bringing the score to 6 – 3.

It was claustrophobic and physical, and utterly compelling – with brutal defence the order of the day, and this was at its most evident at the 20 minute mark.  Ben Youngs atoned for two poor box kicks early on with a sharp break around the fringes to push the Tigers up to the Ulster 22, but when Crane took the ball on he was absolutely creamed by a superb hit from Dan Tuohy from the side.  Crane had to leave the field to be replaced by Steve Mafi, and the entire balance of Leicester's back row had been thrown into turmoil.

Not that it was immediately obvious, however, as Mafi produced a neat offload on halfway to Graham Kitchener, who galloped through a gap a frightening pace, only to be caught by a magnificent covering tackle by Jared Payne just metres from the line.  Leicester won another scrum penalty a couple of phases later though, and re-esablished their 6 point lead.

If the Tigers had looked the better side in the first quarter, things were about to gradually change.  Another excellent touch-finder by Piennar and subsequent lineout had Leicester going backwards at an alarming rate, forcing Dan Cole to come in from the side to concede another penalty for the South African general to knock over.  Another referee may have been inclined to send Cole to the naughty boy step in such circumstances. 

Moments later, and Ulster were level, thanks to sharp work at the breakdown by the omnipresent Chris Henry and another booming kick from Pienaar.  Flood then missed his easiest kick of the night before the visitors had their first real opportunity of the game, as Ben Youngs was scragged following a quick tap, allowing Pienaar to trip expertly ahead for Andre Trimble to chase.  The awkward bounce eluded Niki Goneva and fell into the Irish international's hands, but the Fijian wing did just enough to force a foot into touch 10 metres from the hosts' line.

The Tigers were now well on the back foot, and were further rocked by the sight of Tait – who had been assured under the high ball and lively in attack – being replaced by Scott Hamilton after picking up an injury.  Pienaar then sent a drop goal wide of the posts to bring about half time, and a respite for the home side.  The crowd took stock.  It felt as if Ulster were on top but – on the whole – it had been an incredibly even first half, with Leicester ruling the opening exchanges before the lads from Belfast battered their way back into things in the second 20.  This game was on a knife-edge, and was looking increasingly difficult to call, but it was a sense of deja vous when the teams re-emerged for the second half.

After some tentative jabs between the sides, it was the Tigers who once again had the better of the exchanges, earning territory with smart kicks from the half backs and strong carries from the pack.  Once again, it was the scrum which yielded the penalty – awarded this time for an early break by Chris Henry – and Flood added 3 points to put the hosts back in front.  It was a bitter-sweet moment as yet another Tiger – the superb Kitchener – was forced off with an injury.  It would prove to be a crucial moment as Kitchener was about the only man who was close to Pienaar's level of performance.

Luckily, for Leicester, the loss was not immediately felt, as they breached the men in white's stingy defence for the first time.  Following a bullocking run from the impressive Tom Youngs, Flood took the ball on the front foot in centre field on the visitors' 22.  Noticing the Ulster defence rushing up quickly and Jared Payne covering the side of field, the fly half dinked a delightful grubber in behind Paddy Jackson for Niall Morris to gather – despite being tackled early – and touch down in the corner.  Flood added a conversion and, all of a sudden, there was daylight between the sides – 10 points to be precise.  Surely it was game over.  Nobody ever comes back from 10 points down at Welford Road.

Except nobody told Ulster that.  They came straight back at the Tigers, battering their way up to within 5 metres of the Leicester line.  The hosts, shorn of their main threat to Ulster's lineout and one of their most prominent figures in the loose in Kitchener, seemed unable to resist the wave of white surging towards them, with the likes of Rory Best and the gargantuan Nick Williams barrelling forward time and again.  For one of the first times this season though, the Tigers defence looked solid, with Tom Youngs, Anthony Allen and Jamie Gibson all putting their bodies on the line in a ferocious display of tackling.  Eventually Youngs conceded 3 points, but there was to be no respite for the hosts.

Scott Hamilton made a hash of another towering kick from Jackson, and from there the Tigers were unable to clear their lines.  When they did attempt to clear from a ruck, it all went horribly wrong.  Ben Youngs' pass was a fraction high, Toby Flood took one too many steps, and no 'blocker' forced Pienaar to take a step around them, but the South African scrum half took full advantage of these 3 factors and flung himself forward to charge down the kick and dive on the loose ball to claim the try.  He slotted the conversion with ice-cool composure, and we were back level.  Welford Road was stunned.

That stunned silence was replaced by a road – an Irish roar – from the visiting fans, as Pienaar once again stepped up to the plate to land a 50 metre penalty with 10 minutes remaining, giving his side the lead.  Leicester threw everything at Ulster in the last 10 minutes – a monster kick for touch by Flood which led to a lineout drive was thwarted by powerful Ulster defence (as it had been all night) before the visiting scrum – on the back foot all game – won an incredible set piece against the head.  It was a special night, and as Nigel Owens blew his whistle, an iconic night*, as Ulster inflicted a home defeat on Leicester in Europe for the first time in 8 years.  Both sides would be in the last 8, but Leicester would be travelling to France and facing an away semi-final if they win, whilst Ulster have a home encounter quarter final to look forward to.

What a pair of games these two sides have played out.  With try-scoring opportunities at a premium, these 2 have matched one another blow-for-blow, resulting in some of the most compelling and brutal Heineken Cup rugby I've seen for some time.  But, in both games, Ulster just had that extra 5% where it mattered – the ability to maintain that intensity for 80 minutes, to remain calm under pressure.  That 5%, as is so often the case, proved to be the difference.  And a certain South African scrum half, too.

*I was going to state 'memorable', but following various accounts from both sets of supporters of the ensuing night in Leicester, I gather this may not have been the case.  Here's hoping to a reunion of these 2 sides in the semi-finals.

 

What else happened in the final weekend of Heineken Cup group games?

Pool 1: Leinster dispatched of a brave Ospreys side who played with 14 men for 60 minutes after Ian Evans was shown a red card, whilst Saints ground their way to a low scoring win at home to Castres.

Pool 2: Exeter claimed an impressive away win in Cardiff against the Blues and Toulon scrapped to 7 point win away in Glasgow in atrocious conditions to book themselves a home quarter final.

Pool 3:  Saracens dismantled Connacht at home to claim a best runners up spot, whilst Toulouse made a real meal of turning over Zebre in Italy, costing themselves a home quarter final in the process.

Pool 4:  Clermont easily dispatched Racing Metro at home to confirm a home quarter final, and Quins sneaked a dead rubber against the Scarlets in Wales.

Pool 5:  In the other Pool 5 game, Montpellier overcame a stubborn Treviso side at home.

Pool 6:  Munster demolished Edinburgh at home to claim an unlikely home quarter final, whilst Gloucester finally fulfilled their potential with an impressive win away in Perpignan.

 

Quarter Final Line Up

 

Ulster (1st seeds) v Saracens (8th)

 

Clermont Auvergne (2nd) v Leicester Tigers (7th)

 

Toulon RC (3rd) v Leinster (6th)

 

Munster (4th) v Toulouse (5th)