Six Nations Preview - France v England

There are some things in life that you just can't rely on.  A bus or train being on time when you're in a rush to catch a plane, for example.  Or your other half recording the correct rugby match on the telly in your absence.  Or the French.  Yes, that's a gross generalisation and I'm diving into the stereotypes here – I'm sure the majority of the French people are both reliable and punctual – but they haven't helped themselves with a couple of high-profile incidents.  As the English clubs found out, don't rely on the French to follow through with their promise to back you in the creation of a new European club tournament.  Or, as I found out last year, don't confidently back the French for a Six Nations title.  It ends in spectacular embarrassment for all parties.

Yep, despite having the best team on paper, and leading me (and several others, to be fair) to proclaim Les Bleus as 'dead certs' for the title, the French managed to blunder their way to 3 defeats and a draw, spear-headed by bizarre team selections and an apparent can't-be-bothered attitude shown by some of their big-name players, such as Thierry Dusautoir.  They looked foolish, the pundits looked foolish, and nobody came out looking good.  Yet again, the old adage of never knowing which French side will show up came to the fore.  And things, didn't get any better for Les Bleus for the remainder on 2013 either, winning just 1 of their 6 Test matches.  And that was against international powerhouses, Tonga.

But delve a little deeper, and you'll see that things aren't as bad as they seem.  For starters, Phillippe Saint-Andre has stopped smoking whatever he was smoking and has started picking his best players in their best positions – Fofana in the centres instead of on the wing, and Huget at 14 instead of full-back for example.  He's also not selected Freddie Michelak, a man as solid as a damp piece of paper, and is instead playing a real fly-half – as in an actual fly half.  Jules Plisson is making his debut but certainly represents a lot of promise and a step in the right direction for this French side.  Their pack – and front row, in particular – looks formidable, even without Thierry Dusautoir, and is packed with powerful ball carriers.  The backline also looks nicely balanced, with the smooth-running and silky-skilled Wesley Fofana teaming up with the over-inflated space-hopper with an angry bulldog face (AKA Mathieu Bastareau) in the centres.  There are threats all over the place and, if the half-backs click, they could cause any side problems.  Oh, and those 5 defeats after the 6 Nations last year?  They were to New Zealand (4 times) and to South Africa (once).  How much you can read into them is anybody's guess.

Venturing into the unknown will be an England side featuring, well, a bunch of unknowns.  Jack Nowell, who has been earning rave reviews for his European performances with Exeter Chiefs and heavy criticism for his appalling haircut (which contains a rat's tail), makes his debut on the wing on the opposite flank to 'wise old head' Johnny May, the Gloucester speedster, who has one cap.  Luther Burrell, battering-ram extraordinaire for Northampton, steps into the Manu Tuilagi role at 13 as well, away from his preferred position at inside centre.  All 3 newbies are fine players, fully deserving of their opportunities, but cohesion between backlines does take time to develop, so fans shouldn't expect fireworks from the first minute.  Elsewhere, England look pretty settled, with competition for places at hooker and scrum half particularly intense.  Tom Youngs is probably the only man who may feel a little hard done by, given his form of late, but Dylan Hartley is himself in good nick and his lineout relationship with Lawes and Wood is the crucial factor.  Perhaps the only area many would take issue with is the subs bench – such a crucial part of any game these days.  The backline selections of Lee Dickson, Brad Barritt and Alex Goode are all conservative, safe picks, but Ben Youngs (who, despite not being the best form, is lethal against tired fringe defences), Kyle Eastmond and Anthony Watson all offer versatile cover and real inventiveness from the sidelines; it's a shame that they won't be able to have an impact this weekend.  But there's still good reason to hope – last year's Six Nations (the final game aside) and the Autumn Internationals showed the development of a pack with real strength in depth that can challenge the best sides in the world, and against France they will be going all out to pressurise the opposition 8 into mistakes, penalties for the reliable boot of Owen Farrell and retreating defence.  Paris is the chance for them to lay down their marker.

And who knows what will be waiting for them in Paris?  Will the French come out firing on all cylinders, living up to their spectacular potential?  Or will they get frogs legs once again?  If there's one thing we do know, though, it's that "Le Crunch" will be as physical and explosive as ever.  You can rely on that.

France Team News

Stade Francais fly-half Jules Plisson will make his France debut against England in Paris.  The 22-year-old will form an inexperienced half-back partnership with Toulouse's Jean-Marc Doussain.  Stade Francais lock Pascal Pape will captain Les Bleus in the absence of the injured flanker Thierry Dusautoir.  Bernard Le Roux replaces Dusautoir in the back row, while Mathieu Bastareaud has been selected at centre.

Starting Line up:  B Dulin (Castres); Y Huget (Toulouse), M Bastareaud (Toulon), W Fofana (Clermont Auvergne), M Medard (Toulouse); J Plisson (Stade Francais), J-M Doussain (Toulouse); T Domingo (Clermont Auvergne), B Kayser (Clermont Auvergne), N Mas (Montpellier), A Flanquart (Stade Francais), P Pape (Stade Francais, capt), Y Nyanga (Toulouse), B Le Roux (Racing Metro), L Picamoles (Toulouse).

Subs: D Szarzewski (RacingMetro), Y Forestier (Castres), R Slimani (Stade Francais), Y Maestri (Toulouse), A Burban (Stade Francais), D Chouly (Clermont Auvergne), M Machenaud (Racing Metro), G Fickou (Toulouse).

Key Player

Jules Plisson.  The Stade Francais man is one of those rare breeds of French 10s – a fly half, pure and simple, and not a scrum half who occasionally swaps the numbers on his back.  Traditionally Saint-Andre has been wary of the simplicity of this approach, inexplicably ignoring the likes of Trinh-Duc last year, but Plisson has shown plenty of guile and exceptional game-management during his season for Stade.  He is still young, however, and how he deals with the pressure of the England pack targeting his channel will be a real challenge for the youngster.  If he holds it together, and doesn't let the likes of Vunipola and Lawes rattle him (easier said than done), then the superior French backline should get some decent-ball – and that spells bad news for England.

England Team News

There are four changes in all from the side that lost 30-22 to New Zealand at Twickenham in November. Exeter wing Jack Nowell and Northampton centre Luther Burrell will make their England debuts in Paris, whilst Gloucester winger Jonny May will win his second cap, while Harlequins scrum-half Danny Care has been recalled.   Fellow Harlequin Joe Marler retains his place at loose-head prop ahead of Saracens' Mako Vunipola.

Starting Line up:  Mike Brown, Jack Nowell, Luther Burrell, Billy Twelvetrees, Jonny May, Owen Farrell, Danny Care; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (captain), Billy Vunipola

Subs: Tom Youngs, Mako Vunipola, Henry Thomas, Dave Attwood, Ben Morgan, Lee Dickson, Brad Barritt, Alex Goode

Key Player

Chris Robshaw.  Man of the match last time round (in fact, man of the match of most of the games he plays), England will be looking to their captain to lead by example once more.  The absence of Dussautoir provides a potential opening to dominate the breakdown – and with Robshaw's workrate and physicality, the visitors will be hoping that they can be first to all the key tackles situations, especially later on in the game.  The England skipper will also be acutely aware that the French half-backs have had little more than a coffee and a croissant to get to know each other, and some well-applied pressure here (with the help of the Courtney Lawes missile-service, no doubt) could see the French backline shut down at source.

 

Key Battle

Thomas Domingo v Dan Cole.  The French loosehead is a mathematically perfect square on legs, weighing a hefty 17-and-a-half stone and measuring an oompa-loompa-ish 5 foot 8.  These physical attributes might not see him as a big game player on the dating circuit, but it certainly does the business in the front row.  Compact and powerful, Domingo is a bowling ball on the carry and devilishly tricky to deal with in the set piece.  England man, Cole, is a comparatively-towering 6 foot 3 and is renowned as being one of the best scrummagers in Europe – see his utter destruction of Andrew Sheridan in Europe last year.  But if Cole has one Achilles heel, it is propping against the shorter man.  His two nemesis are Paul James and Domingo, squat props who can get underneath Cole and drive into the hooker – England's tighthead will have to pull out all the stops to prevent this from happening.  If the French get set piece dominance, it's a very hard position to fight from.

 

Prediction

Ah, who knows.  England go into this game off the back of a decent, if not entirely inspiring, Autumn series, but injuries to critical players, especially in the backline, has left the side as a bit of an unknown quantity.  The pack though, is pretty much the same as the one that impressed in November, and they will realise that this is a huge test of their ambition to be one of the dominant sets of forwards in world rugby.  For the French, their recent results against the top 2 teams make it impossible to figure out how they'll fare this year, but with the quality they have oozing through their side it's impossible to imagine them being as bad as last year.  Phillippe Saint-Andre has stopped picking Freddie Michalak, which is a start, but their half backs are inexperienced and they lack an internationally-recognised kicker.  That said, I can see some magic out wide from Les Blues snatching a very narrow win against a scratch England backline, especially in the men in white's pack can't get the upper hand in the loose.  France by 2.

Let's see what's happening in this weekend's other games:

Wales v Italy:  Wales go into this one as red hot favourites, despite a mixed Autumn campaign, and rightfully so.  George North is on fire at the moment and the Italians showed very little in their own November series to suggest that they will be able to threaten teams out wide this tournament.  As usual it will be a tough game up front, but I'm expecting the hosts to pull away with their superior firepower in the backs.  Wales to win by 19.

Ireland v Scotland:  Ireland sowed the seeds of promise when they went down by 2 points to the All Blacks, but this is their chance to build.  Scotland have looked improved under Scott Johnson but have an atrocious away record and, despite some of their best players looking over the hill, Ireland should win relatively comfortably.  Ireland by 9.